Nag3: Horse Racing Blog, Racing Systems & Free Horseracing Tips

Cyber Attack.....

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin) — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 09:47:00 +0000

According to the experts my new site has been the victim of a cyber attack which has caused it to stop working. Most annoying!

It's going to take a couple of days to clean the relevant files and re-submit the site pages to Google so until then it's back to the old home here at Nag3 Blogger.

GOODWOOD

I've been suffering from terrible jet lag up until now and haven't had too many bets at Goodwood this week but after a great day with the Trends Guide yesterday I'm really looking forward to today especially as it sees the running of the Totesport Mile.

I wrote last month that this was the race with one of the biggest draw bias in UK racing and if you're drawn low you might as well stay at home.

The first 5 home last year were drawn 20,19,18,17 and 16! In that order.
In 2007 it was 20,14,13 (20 ran). In 2006 16 and 15 (17 ran). In 2005 16 and 13 (18 ran), 2004 20 of 21, 2003 22 of 21, 2002 21 of 21, 2001 19 of 21 and 2000 18 of 22

When you add to the mix the fact that no horse aged over six has even made the frame in the last 10 years and all of the last 10 winners finished in the top 6 last time out you are left with just two horses....Cloudy Start and Vitznau

Simples!

2.45 Goodwood

A horse that I have been following recently is Indian Trail and it's interesting to note that he is due to run just 24 hours after finishing 4th in another Goodwood sprint. He's been crying out for a return to 6f and with Frankie Dettori booked to do the steering, at 12/1, he may be worth a small each way wager should he turn up to race again.

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And finally, I won't bore you with all the details from my recent Vegas trip but here's a little story to show just how close me and the missus came to hitting the jackpot while we were there. We were playing a table game called Carribean Stud Poker, which basically involves your 5 card poker hand beating the dealers hand and which has special progressive jackpots should you make the top hands. Obviously the best hand in poker is the Royal Flush (10 to Ace of the same suit) and the Jackpot for this particular hand was just over $115,000.

The very first hand we played I was dealt the 10, J, Q, A of clubs and the 5 diamonds which was close but ultimately provided no cigar.

And then just three hands later the missus was dealt the very same 10, J, Q, A of clubs and....... the King of Spades. I was sitting in the next seat to her with the much needed King of clubs in my hand making it about as close as you can get without winning.

The thought did cross my mind to do a quick switch but having seen such films as Casino, Oceans 11 and 21 I didn't relish the prospect of being taken 'out the back' to one of the casino's windowless rooms and have some old-style Vegas justice handed out to me. We took our $100 for the straight and spent the rest of the afternoon thinking of what might have been.....

Good luck,

Gavin.

Gremlins...

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin) — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 09:49:00 +0000

New site
It seems there are a few more gremlins in the new site than I had previously suspected and I've had to call in the experts to clear them out. Hopefully now I have someone who knows what they're doing the site should soon be up and running smoothly. Until it is sorted out I'll continue posting here as well as at new Nag3.

The daily tip will continue and after Wednesday's unlucky loser we got on the scoresheet with a winner yesterday. Today's selection is now available...http://nag-nag-nag.co.uk/daily-tip/

The sign up box is still active and if you haven't already put your details in to continue the email notifications of any new postings you can still do that here...http://nag-nag-nag.co.uk/

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Birthday Boy
I celebrate my 41st birthday tomorrow and as I won't be around to post any horses I'll do it now.

I said earlier in the week that my bet of the day would be Above Limits in the Newbury Super Sprint (3.25) and having looked at the declarations I'm still supremely confident of a big run. I'm looking for her to pay for my upgrade to premium economy on my Virgin flight on Wednesday and add a few more $ to my Vegas punting fund. The fingers are firmly crossed here at Nag Towers.

Over at Newmarket in the 2.35 it would seem that Barshiba is a good thing after her success in the Lancashire Oaks but she has to give a lot of weight away to the 3yo's and I'm going to side with the younger generation and in particular Henry Cecil's Flame of Gibraltar.

Time to switch codes as my next selection runs in the Summer Plate Chase (3.40 Market Rasen). Hold Em spent most of last season contesting, and not being disgraced, in the highest of novice chase company. He rounded off the season with a facile win when heavily dropped in class and has since had two 'quiet' runs over fences and hurdles. He looks to me a horse that has been laid out for this race and should run well at a biggish price.

And one for the trends fans...

Hackwood Stakes 2.20 Newbury.
9 of the last 10 winners were rated 104 or higher (exception was un-rated)...
Intrepid Jack, Palace Moon, Shallal, Festoso and Doncaster Rover can all go

11 of the last 13 winners had won over 6f...
Spin Cycle hasn't

10 of the last 12 winners were 3 or 4yo's...
Edge Closer, Icelandic, Judd Street, Matsunoke, Prime Defender and War Artist are all pensioned off

12 of the last 13 winners ran over 6f+ last time out...
Madam Trop Vite finished well behind over 5f on her last run.

This leaves us with one horse who took the Wokingham last time out and looks well worth this step up in class.....HIGH STANDING

For this weekends BBB I'll use some of my birthday cash to do
4 x £5ew singles and a 20pew Lucky 15

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FRIDAY FUN (?)

This is one of the rides on top of the Stratosphere Casino in Las Vegas and is appropriately named Insanity. My younger brother and his wife were brave enough to try it out but as I get the shakes just climbing a ladder it's not on my list of things to do while I'm there. The ride is 909 feet up.......

Good luck,
Gavin.

Open glory.....

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin) — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 09:59:00 +0000

With the racing so far this week being somewhat less than inspiring I thought I'd have a look at the golf and The Open to see if I could find something to have a bet on.

Before I start I'd like to announce that I'm no golf expert and my record of picking the winners of the Majors is poor to say the least but I've enlisted the help of a few family members who fancy themselves as golf experts and between us we've come up with the following 4 bets....

OUTRIGHT WINNER (3 off the tee)

Steve Stricker
Probably the most in-form guy on the tour at the moment after winning the John Deere tournament last weekend. He used to be a bit of a bottler when faced with a winning opportunity, which was ably demonstrated at Carnoustie 2 years ago when he blew his chance over the final 6 holes, but after a win in the Colonial earlier this year his confidence seems to be at it's peak right now and if he gets himself into a winning position this year I think we'll see a different Steve Stricker take on those final few holes. He's finished a creditable 8th and 7th in the last 2 Open's and at 50/1 he looks a great each way bet.

Ben Curtis
He won the Open in 2003 before enduring a rather torrid time afterwards. He seems to have got his game back together again now and has finished in the top 8 for both of the last two Opens. With a 4th place finish last time out on the US Tour he may be another who is running into form at just the right time. He's not the biggest of hitters, which shouldn't be too much of a problem at Turnberry where accuracy is more of a requisite, but he is one of the best bunker players around and that should help him should the wind get up and send his ball sand bound. 66/1 seems a fair price.

Richard Green
The Australian left hander is another who could be bracketed in the bottler division and if he's towards the top of the leaderboard come Sunday night it might be a good idea to lay him back on Betfair but at 200/1 he looks a big price for someone who is in good form and he finished a very respectable 4th at Carnoustie 2 years ago. He also led last weekends Scottish open after the first day before fading out of it to finish 35th but with 3 top 10 finishes before that tournament he obviously comes here in good heart and could reward us with a big priced place.

TOP AMERICAN WITHOUT TIGER WOODS

Brandt Snedeker
Silly name but a great golfer who looks good value at 40/1 to be the top US player without Tiger Woods. He's another player in good form at the moment and is one of the best putters on the tour. He was 3rd in the Masters last year and if he can handle links golf should give us a run for our money.

Finally on the golf....

Boylesports have put up one of the greatest concessions ever made for punters as they offer each way terms of 1/4 odds the FIRST 8!

If you fancy a bet on the golf and are backing each way this has to be the best chance ever of getting paid. Plus if you haven't already got an account with them they'll also give you a free bet by matching your first bet up to £20.

To open an account click on the banner below.....

I've opened my account with them and placed 4 x £5ew bets on the above golfers with all winnings going to the monthly Bonus Ball Bet prizefund.

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NEW SITE

Thanks for your emails and comments about the new site. It seems that most of you like the site but were having difficulty with the size of the text. I have of course listened to these concerns and have increased the font size to hopefully make it a bit easier to read. Please let me know if there are any other issues you would like addressing.

And don't forget if you want to keep getting email updates of any posts you'll need to sign up again at the new site. Simply fill out the box to the right of the screen at http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/

That's all for now folks.
Good luck,
Gavin.

Moving home...

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin) — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 10:10:00 +0000

It's nearly time to say goodbye to the old Nag3 site as the final tweaking takes place over at the new place http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/

I'll continue posting on this site until I get back from Vegas (28th July) but after that date this site will move permanently to it's new home. From today you can also read the daily posts on the new site as well as here so if you fancy making the transition straight away there's nothing to stop you.

The sign-up box is now active and if you want to carry on receiving the notification emails that let you know when there is a new post then you'll have to sign up again. Sorry about that.
Just pop your name and email address in the box on the right hand side of the screen and click 'nag updates'. It only takes a couple of seconds and your email address will never be used by anyone other than myself or Matt.

The site again is ......http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/ and you simply click on any of the tabs to move to the next page. If it's just the blog you're interested in, the tab is situated at the top of the screen and is imaginatively titled 'Blog'.

New feature
When you check out the new site you'll also see a tab entitled 'Daily Tip' on the left hand side. Starting from today I will be posting one horse a day as my daily fancy with a running total (+ or -) so you can track how it's going. Today's runner goes at Yarmouth tonight and is now available.

If you have any comments, problems or questions about the new site please email me at gavin@nag-nag-nag.co.uk

Good luck,
Gavin.

Temper, temper.....

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin) — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 10:10:00 +0000

The 5 things I have learnt this week..

1) Laptops are delicate things...

and should be treated with care. After a particularly unlucky exit in 3rd place of a poker tournament early Saturday morning I slammed the lid down on my laptop in a fit of rage.

Bad mistake! I duly cracked the screen and the $1200 winnings I got for finishing third just about covered the cost of a new computer from PC World yesterday. This was the reason I didn't post Saturday.

2) 2009 could be the year of the filly...

Rachel Alexander has already re-written the history books across the pond after winning the Preakness Stakes and now our very own super-filly Sariska has laid down her challenge to be regarded as the best filly in the world. After a decisive win in yesterday's Irish Oaks she could join the French filly Stacelita in becoming the main challengers to Sea The Stars unbeaten record in the Arc. But they're not the only females stealing the headlines this season as last years Oaks winner Look Here looks ready to win again in Group 1 company after two very promising runs this season and with 1000 Guineas and Coronation Stakes winner Ghanaati likely to prove tough to beat in this months Sussex Stakes this really could be the year of the filly.

3) England won't win the Ashes back....

unless they change their mentality and realise that test cricket is played over 5 days. They won the toss and decided, quite rightly, to bat first on a wicket that looked primed to allow a big score. But the middle order seem totally unable to accept the fact that to win Test cricket you have to build runs gradually over at least two days. It's all very well knocking off 60 from 40 balls if you can keep it going to score 100 or 200 but showing off and throwing your wicket away (Mr Pieterson) does not help the team. In the interview after the first days play the players all seemed pleased with themselves having reached 380 odd when really they should have been aiming for a total of 600 (as the Aussies proved) on that pitch. We'll take the draw but they'll have to raise their game at Lords on Thursday.

4) It's time to start backing the Suroor horses....

I touched on this briefly last week but it looks like after a very poor start to the season it's time to start backing the Boys in Blue. Saeed Bin Suroor has sent out 11 winners from his last 29 runners and seen another 7 of them placed. If you've done your money on any Goldophin horse over the last few months (I know I have!) it's now time to get your money back.

Kite Wood was a good start for me last week and I'll now be looking to get a return from Yahrab, Veracity, Giganticus and Eastern Anthem.

5) Paco Boy seems to attract controversy every time he runs....

I doubt there's been a horse that has had more written about them this year than Paco Boy. Will he stay a mile, won't he, can he handle Group 1 company, letters to the Racing Post from the Jockey, trainer, owner, even I've added my twopence worth.

And then just when you thought all the questions had been answered and everything had been said that needed to be said along comes Jimmy Fortune to ride a poor race on him in the July Cup. It wasn't the worst ride ever given to a horse and in my opinion Paco Boy didn't look like he handled the track too well but Fortune upset a lot of people with his strong finish that didn't quite make the frame. The drop back to 6f was never going to be easy and he was outpaced early on but even with different riding tactics I doubt he'd have finished better than 3rd.

It will be interesting to see what the horse has install for us next time.....

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Saturday's Super Sprint at Newbury

I've got a real fancy for this race at the weekend and will let you all have the name of it early so you can get the price as soon as the markets open up.

Richard Hannon has dominated this sales race since it's inception with 6 winners and a host of placed runners but it's worth noting he has been responsible for the last 5 beaten favourites and he accounts for far and away the most numbers of runners of any trainer. We can expect his usual bumper entry this year and with Monsieur Chevallier likely to be a leading fancy he'll fancy his chances again but I'm going to look elsewhere for the winner...

The interesting stat for this race is the fact that fillies have won 7 of the last 10 runnings and have provided 12 winners since the races inception in 1991. This can be explained by the way the race conditions are framed and the allowances given depending on the price paid for the horse at the sales. The race is restricted to those horses purchased for £48,000 or less and 1lb is taken off the initial weight for every £3000 under than that price. With fillies generally passing through the sales ring for a lower price than their male counterparts they're off to a good start before you take into consideration the 5lb sex allowance they also receive.

Other things to note about the 5f Super Sprint is that those horses who race prominently have a fantastic record as do those who contested the 2yo races at Royal Ascot.

Which brings us to my idea of the likely winner. She's trained by Tom Dascombe and ran a blinder from a terrible draw at Ascot in the Albany Stakes behind Habaayib. She led for most of the way before finding the draw disadvantage take affect in the final 75 yards and finished a respectable 6th. The 7th horse that day, Jira, raced alongside the selection on the far side and has since come out and won a Listed race at Newmarket.

She entered my notebook as one to look out for next time and this race was the obvious target for her. Obviously Mr Dascombe shares my opinion as he has entered her for the race and off just 8-00 I'm very hopeful of a big run.

And her name.....ABOVE LIMITS.

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FESTIVAL TRENDS

Thanks for all the emails after Saturday's Festival Trends big race 16/1 winner, Sirvino, and the forecast as well with top rated horse Kingdom of Fife finishing second. We were due a change of luck after a lot of big priced placed horses recently and this was just the tonic.

We move on to Ascot next before the big meeting at the end of the month, Glorious Goodwood.

If you want to get a copy of the Trends Guide for both meetings it's just £14.95 and will include the 17 major races from both meetings. You can get it here...

Festival Trends Sign-Up Page

Good luck,

Gavin.

Newmarket Day 3.....

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin) — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 10:15:00 +0000

After yesterday's 'bet of the day' obliged the pressure's now on to make it a hat-trick. There are a few I fancy today and there are also 3 runners with some interesting stats associated with them. I'll give those to you first...

In the 3.55 York, Mark Johnson's record over the last 10 years in this race is pretty impressive. He's had 9 runners who have finished 131211681 and today he runs Whispering Gallery who is currently available at 7/2

Similarly in the 7.00 Chepstow Richard Hannon's record in the race over the last 10 years reads 1231121. Tonight he runs Palisades Park who is 11/4 at the moment.

The last stat for the day is Richard Hills record in the 3.45 Newmarket. He's had 6 rides in the last 10 years, has never been out of the frame and won twice. Today he rides Ghazwah for the John Gosden stable.

Onto my thoughts for the day....

I'll get this one out of the way early so you can all have a good laugh but in the July Cup (Newmarket 3.10) today I can't see why Equiano is a 100/1 shot. Granted, his form's not been that good this year but he is a Group 1 sprint winner and ran 4th over the course in last years Group 1 Nunthorpe. He's still only a 4yo and it's too early to write him off just yet.

There have been worse 100/1 shots running in Group races before and I'll be having a £1 ew on him at those odds.

OK, if you've stopped laughing I'll continue.

One of the things that has become quite clear this week at Newmarket is that Saeed Bin Suroor has struck form with a vengeance. After a very poor start to the season their horses are now starting to show their true potential and the stable is definitely worth following over the next month or so.

They've got a few runners around the country today and most have a fairly decent chance but the one I like the most is Sovereign Remedy in the 1.30 Newmarket. He beat a Stoute hotpot in an ordinary Nottingham maiden back in May before finding the step up to 1m 2f too far for him on his handicap debut. Back to a mile today he looks a good bet at around 8/1.

And finally my bet of the day. He runs in the nursery (a handicap for 2yo's) at 4.20 Newmarket, he runs off bottom weight and he's one for all you 80's children. Ant Music has been very highly tried in the three maidens he has contested including the one that top 2yo Canford Cliffs won at Newbury and his rating of 71 looks very fair on that particular run. He started off his career behind the other classy Hannon juvenile Monsiuer Chevallier and I can't believe he's got in here off such a light weight. He's 20/1 and my each way bet of the day.

Good luck,
Gavin.

Newmarket Day 2....

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin) — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 08:09:00 +0000

What a great day yesterday turned out to be. After a disappointing run from First City in the first race and Henry Cecil's 2nd string had beaten my fancy at 25/1 later in the afternoon I thought it was going to be another one of those days.

But my Placepot perm came up and payed a very nice £1950 which meant I ended up doubling my stake on my bet of the day in last nights Kempton 7.20. That won very nicely at 7/2 and now gives me a punting pot full of $'s for my Vegas birthday trip. Now all I have to do is keep hold of it and not blow it before the 22nd (I must be evens to lose the lot before then!)

One interesting point I'd like to know about the Placepot though is just how much I managed to influence the dividend by posting my perm. I had a couple of emails last night from happy readers who had followed the perm and between us we had £3.60 of the £66 winning dividend. If there was anyone else who got the bet up could they let me know by either leaving a comment or emailing me at gavin@nag-nag-nag.co.uk.

It wouldn't take a very large % of our readership to have followed the perm in order for it to have a dramatic affect on the dividend and it's not beyond the realms of possibility that readers were responsible for 10-15% of all winners of the bet. I'll still be publishing my perms (and you can read today's at the end of this post), I'd just be interested to know. Thanks.

The other news worthy item that I didn't realise until after the event was that the 7.20 Kempton last night, in which my tip Action Impact did the business for me, was actually the race that was run to music. You may recall me berating the Kempton executives for coming up with such a ludicrous idea in an earlier post and even backing the winner of the race won't make me change my mind on the subject as I still think it is ridiculous. The London Philharmonic Orchestra playing Rossini's William Tell Overture while horses compete around Kempton. Please! Is that the best the Kempton executives can come up with to increase crowds? If so then they really don't have a clue, do they?

Last word on the subject goes to the winning race jockey Ryan Moore who when asked for his opinion on the idea simply replied, in his usual succinct manner,....'it was stupid.' Enough said.

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Onto today.

The trends guide did well yesterday with both Misheer and Goldikova highlighted from the 3 races we covered. We again have three races in the guide for today and you can still get a copy by going here.

The first race at Newmarket (1.30pm) today sees the return of Kite Wood after his disappointing run in The Derby. He was beaten only 2 lengths in the Dante on his first run of the season and on that form he's head and shoulders above this lot. With Saeed Bin Suroor finally getting amongst the winners recently (6 out of his last 14 runners have won) I'd expect to see this one run a much better race today and at a generous looking 11/4 he will be my bet of the day.

The concluding race of the day (4.55) is a 5f sprint handicap and I just can't help myself when it comes to these type of races. It looks a very tough race with a lot of in form runners lining up but if you take a closer look at some of the form you'll see that a lot of them have been campaigned at a lower class than this (Blue Jack, Magical Speedfit and Sands Crooner) or are now running off a much higher mark than they have won off (Rothesay Dancer). After yesterdays racing it seemed that a middle to high draw was advantageous but I don't like backing 3yo's in these all aged sprints so I can't have the likely favourite, but well drawn, Green Beret on my shortlist. Which leaves me looking at the two course and distance winners Angus Newz and Kay Two plus the 9yo Indian Trail to try and find the winner. Angus Newz ran a good race in Ireland last time out to be beaten only 3 lengths in a Group 3 but translating Group form to handicaps is notoriously dodgy and I'd rather back last years winner Kay Two of the two C & D winners. But the one I will be backing is Dandy Nicholl's Indian Trail who had the worst of the draw last time at Newcastle but still ran respectably and was well clear of those drawn low. After winning a decent handicap at the end of 2007 he spent most of last season running off handicap marks in the 100's but the handicapper has now released his grip on him and he still looks fairly treated on a mark of 88. He looks set for a big run.

My Placepot perm for Newmarket today...
4-6 / 2-4-7 / 3-6-12 / 5-6 / 5-8-9 / 2-5 = 216 bets

Good luck,
Gavin.

Newmarket July meeting....

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin) — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 10:18:00 +0000

Today sees the launch of the Racing Post membership service and the grand unveiling of the charges they plan to levy on readers to access the main content of their website. I'm sure Matt will have plenty to say on the matter so I'll leave it to him and his Geegeez post to let off some steam.

One thing I will say on the subject though, is that it seems to me they are almost embarrassed by the membership fees as trying to find out the actual cost of the service is quite hard. The email I received linked to another page with descriptions of various packages but no mention of the cost and on their website front page there is also a link to a page titled 'Members Club Launch - All you need to know'. All you need to know except the price that is!

For those that do want to know, the basic package starts at £7.50 per month and the top package is £199.95 per annum. OUCH!

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Newmarket July Meeting

We've covered 3 races today in our trends guide, which can be purchased from here.

The first race of the day (1.30 Newmarket) had some weakish trends so I didn't bother with it for the guide but there is a horse running in the race that I think should go well. First City belied her 66/1 odds to run 5th of 19 at Royal Ascot behind Moneycantbuymelove. Despite being hampered twice inside the final 2 furlongs she stuck on well and would have finished a lot closer had she avoided the trouble. She had started her season with a good 3rd behind Fantasia in a Group 3 race and with Ahmed Ajtebi able to take off 3lb looks nicely treated off a rating of 90.

Later on in the afternoon Henry Cecil introduces a impeccably bred colt in the 4.20 Newmarket called Manifest. I've heard good things about this one but he does have a tough introduction as the top one, Beauchamp Xerxes, has some very good form in the book. I'll be having a few pounds on the Cecil beast though in the hope he can produce on the course what he has been doing on the gallops.

And one more for Kempton tonight which will be my attempt to get some punting money for Vegas. He runs in the 7.20 and is coming back after a fairly long layoff. Action Impact last ran on the 1st March where he was a beaten favourite but had previously ran a very good second to War of the Roses and that form is better than anything else on show in this race. Ryan Moore is onboard and he is my idea of the best bet of the day.

I'm also having a go at the Newmarket Placepot today with the following perm....

4-11-15 / 1-7-11 / 2-4-8 / 3-8 / 2-10 /1-9 = 216 bets

Good luck,
Gavin.

Weekend wrap...

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin) — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 10:05:00 +0000

It's Monday so it must be time for....

THE 5 THINGS I HAVE LEARNT THIS WEEKEND.

1) I'm off to Vegas for my birthday!

Yee-hah. The missus has booked a surprise holiday for the two of us in the gambling capital of the world. The surprise being that she booked it on my credit card!
Who cares, 6 days in sin city with the little one staying at grandma's has got to be the perfect birthday present no matter who ends up paying. What a great start that was to my weekend...

2) SEA THE STARS
Another fantastic performance from the Guineas and Derby winner puts him well on the road to immortality. He's now won 3 Group 1 races this season over distances of 1m, 1m 4f and 1m 2f. The St. Leger over 1m 6f would complete the set and just about seal his place as one of the all time greats but as that's unlikely we'll have to hope John Oxx sends him to the Breeders Cup for a rematch with Rip Van Winkle and/or Fame and Glory. And I'll be there to see it!

3) Nicky Henderson got off lightly...
He and his vet knew that using TA was against the rules and they, wrongly, thought it couldn't be detected. It can, they got found out and they then set about lying to cover their tracks and deceiving the hearing panel. A £40,000 fine is just and is going to hurt even a big name trainer like Henderson but banning a NH trainer for 3 months out of the regular season is ridiculous. It would be like banning Sir Michael Stoute for 3 months in November-January. Henderson should have been banned until the end of the year at the very least. I can't imagine a smaller stable doing the same thing would have got off so easily.

4) I should have been a Dutchman....
It's there to see in black and white. Another weekend where faced with a choice of two selections I opted for the wrong one.....again! I hope you all took the hint and backed Acrostic.

Having had Matt text me within 30 seconds of the horse passing the post berating me for not recommending to 'dutch' the selections I can take it no more and will from now on will begin 'dutching' selections when faced with a straight choice of two.

(For those of you unfamiliar with the term 'dutching' it simply means splitting your stake between the chosen selections.)

I've learnt my lesson...

5) A race to look out for...

While researching our latest trends guide for Newmarket (more to follow) I stumbled across a race that has proved a reliable guide for another race run later in the season. On Wednesday, the 2nd race of the day at Newmarket is a 6f handicap for 3yo's and in the last 8 years six of the winners have gone on to run in the Shergar Sprint at Ascot.

They finished 111214 winning at odds of 6/1, 6/4, 9/2 and 4/1 which can't be too bad.

So get out the notepad and pen and mark down the winner of the 2pm Newmarket on Wednesday.

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FESTIVAL TRENDS

The July Meeting at Newmarket is the next port of call for our Festival Trends Guide and we'll be covering 3 races each day from Racing HQ. There will also be a Special Bonus race included which will be Saturday's John Smith's Cup at York.

It's just £9.95 and available by clicking here...

or for just £19.99 you can subscribe for the entire month of July and receive Newmarket, York, Ascot and Glorious Goodwood.

Festival Trends Month of July

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NAG-NAG-NAG SITE

The new website is coming along nicely and I've just got to sort a few things out, including setting up the 'Update Box' and finishing off the pages before taking up residence. I'll be moving over to the new site from next Monday but you won't have to do anything as the site URL will be the same.

Good luck,

Gavin.

BBB Winners...

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin) — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 12:43:00 +0000

BBB JUNE

The 8 winners for last month were....

Raymond H

Harry P

Mark B

Dave S

Stuart (?)

Mike D

Mike T

Simon W

Congratulations, I've sent out an email to you all and await your address details so I can send out your cheques (£31 each)

Entries are now being taken for July's BBB.

Same old routine...send your number (1-49) to quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk

Good luck,

Gavin.

Just a quickie....

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin) — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 09:32:00 +0000

Just a very quick post today as I'm stuck working in the betting shop all day and the punters needed serving.

BBB News...

Last month's Prizepool was £250 and it looks like 8 lucky readers correctly chose bonus ball number 46 for around a £31 share of the pot. Emails will be going out tomorrow and I'll post the list of winning names too.

One thing I did notice when sifting through all the entries is that number 17 is very popular. With nearly 500 entries you'd expect to see each number about 10 times but number 17 must have been on about 30 emails. Bizarre.

Today we'll try and kickstart the monthly prizepool with the following two bets....

Coral Eclipse 3.15 Sandown

He has been nailed close home in two recent Group 1's at both Newbury and Royal Ascot and if any horse deserves a success at this level it's Twice Over. At around 16/1 he looks value to make the frame and if the market principles don't run to form he may even be able to steal the race. We'll have £10ew on him and take the 16's

2.40 Sandown

- The last 10 winners were all rated 92 to 102

- All of the last 10 winners had raced at least twice that season

- 9 of the last 10 winners had won at the distance

- 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 4-6yo

- Interestingly none of the last 10 winners had run on the all weather that winter

- In all of the last 10 runnings of this race where there have been 15 or more runners no horse has won from stall 13 or higher

Which leaves us with two Ellemujie and Acrostic.

Subscribers to the Festival trends guide will know my poor record of picking the right one when faced with a straight choice between two so feel free to back the one I discard!

Which will be Acrostic leaving me having £10ew Ellemujie at 25/1

We might as well have a £1ew double on the two (Twice Over and Ellemujie) for good luck.

I'll be back tomorrow,

Gavin.

P.S. It's still not too late to get a copy of the FREE two race trends Guide. Simply click below....

FREE 2 RACE TRENDS GUIDE AVAILABLE HERE....

Weekend racing.....

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin) — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 10:01:00 +0000

It's horses all the way today as I take a look at some of the races taking place over the weekend.
First up are a couple of interesting runners from today.

In the 2.40 Warwick Tom Dascombe runs an unraced colt against 4 last time out winners and he would appear to be pitched, if not quite in at the deep end, certainly away from the shallow end. However, this season Mr Dascombe has raced four 2yo's at Warwick and has won with them all. Overall the stables 2yo's have been performing well (14 winners from 53 runners) and at around 10/1 Apostle of Rome could be worth a second look today.

The next on my list is one we backed at Royal Ascot last time. Di Stefano was a big 33/1 outsider for the Windsor Castle but belied those odds with a storming run to finish a rapidly closing 3rd behind US raider Strike the Tiger. That form sets the standard for this race and he can hopefully gain compensation in Sandown's Listed Dragon Stakes at 2.50.

Third and final hope for today is the Henry Cecil trained Tranquil Tiger who goes in the 4.00 Sandown. In his 5 runs above Listed class he has yet to finish better than 4th but when racing at this grade his record is much more impressive with 5 wins from 9 starts. His form for those 9 races reads 514121211. The going and distance should pose no problems and another bold bid from the front looks on the cards.

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Sandown and Haydock

The racing tomorrow includes the meetings from Sandown and Haydock with both cards featuring Group race action.
I have compiled a trends guide with those 2 big group races, The Coral Eclipse and Lancashire Oaks, and I'm offering all readers the chance to download the guide for FREE this weekend with no sign-ups, logins or payment of any kind needed.

The link below will take you directly to the guide with no catch whatsover.....

FREE 2 RACE TRENDS GUIDE AVAILABLE HERE....

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Friday Fun

As it the Eclipse tomorrow it's time for me to reminisce (again) about my favourite horse Mtoto and take a look at his 1987 win where he defeated the Derby winner, Reference Point, in a real ding-dong battle from the furlong pole. Not bad for a first run in Group 1 company....

Good luck,

Gavin.

New site...

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin) — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 09:32:00 +0000

Exciting news here at Nag3 as the new site that I have been working on for the past month and a bit is nearly ready for use. It's taken a lot longer than I had hoped but that's mainly (probably entirely) due to my very limited understanding of the technical side of computing.

If you want to have a look at the new look layout then click below...

http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/

and have a little play around with the tabs etc...

You'll notice that very few of the links are working yet but I'll be adding the content to these over the weekend and we'll have a grand opening on Monday. Until then, if you wish to read my blog postings you can continue to use this web address.

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BBB for JUNE

Last night's draw saw number 46 pop out as the bonus ball.
I'm now sifting through over 400 emails to find all the lucky winners who will share the £250 prize fund for last month.

I'll hopefully be able to notify the winners on Saturday and get the cheque(s) out next week.

In the unlikely event of no-one having selected number 46 the cash will rollover to this month. Details of this month's BBB will be in Saturday's Post

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The DRAW

Just a quick follow up to the posts earlier in the week regarding the draw bias for certain races and why the position of your horse in the stalls does have an affect on its performance.

- On certain racecourses the drainage of the track sometimes means that different parts can experience different ground conditions and therefore favours one side or the other. In extreme conditions it can mean the difference between your horse racing in heavy going or soft going simply by where your horse is drawn.

-If there is a bend to negotiate early on in the race then those drawn on the outside are forced to run wider than the rest of the field and therefore have to run further than those drawn to the inside. This can be particularly hard for those who need to race from the front as they will need to use up valuable energy early on to achieve their favoured position.

Which leads me on to the next point and the question....

'Just how much further does an outside stall have to run?'

Taking our example from the other day, The Cesarewitch, we have a field that is generally around the 30 runner mark. I've no idea how wide each stall is but I would imagine it must be about 3 feet or 1 yard across meaning the horse drawn in stall 1 is 30 yards from the rail.

Now in the Cesarewitch the field have one right hand bend to negotiate after travelling about a mile so those drawn low have no option but to track over to the far rail to join the rest of the runners.

Having studied last years race the field went straight for around 50 yards then headed for the far rail with all the runners having assuming their racing position well before the first furlong had been run. So we can say within 150 yards of leaving the stalls.

Now it's time to go back to school for the dreaded algebra as we apply some simply maths to find out the relative distances run by the horses drawn 1 and 30 .

Where side A is the row of stalls (30 yards) and Side B the running rail (100 yards). Side C is the distance the horse drawn 1 has to run to join up with the rest of the field.

To help us calculate side C we simply use Pythagorus who tells us that side c = the square root of (the sum of side A squared + side B squared) or C = Square Root of (900 + 10000)

Which is 104.4 yards

So as long as the horse drawn in stall 30 keeps in a straight line he simply runs 100 yards whereas to get to the same point the horse drawn in stall 1 has to run 104.4 yards.

Which is quite a bit of a difference when you consider that races can be decided by inches.

Good Luck,

Gavin.

Affect of the draw. Discuss.....

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin) — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 09:47:00 +0000

It seems that my post yesterday, concerning the draw, has raised a few hackles and got something of a debate raging. Which is all good and very welcome. (Please feel free to add your say on the matter by leaving a comment at the end of this post or send me an email to gavin@nag-nag-nag.co.uk)

Basically, there are a few readers (maybe even more who haven't emailed) that don't believe the draw has an affect on the outcome of a long distance race.

Well, of course everyone is entitled to their opinion and they may be right but I personally firmly believe that in certain races it can affect the result.

The example I used yesterday was the Totesport Mile which is run over Goodwood's turning mile and the results of recent years has proved that the draw has a dramatic affect on the race result. Horses drawn low simply don't win this race.

You may agree with me on that one but struggle with the concept that a race run over mile and a half or even 2 miles+ could possibly be affected by the draw simply on the basis that over that kind of extended distance all horses will have plenty of time to sort themselves out and adopt their favoured running position.

Which in some races, on some courses over some distances is true. I'm not claiming that in every long distance race there is a draw bias but what I am claiming is that in certain long distance races run at certain tracks there is a definite advantage and disadvantage in where your horse is drawn.

As an example let's take a look at what is regarded as possibly the fairest track in the country, Newmarket's Rowley Mile course, and one of the longest distance handicaps run all season, The Cesarewitch. The horses in this race run for 2m 2f in a straight (ish) line with just one bend to navigate at the 10f pole and they only have to pass the post once i.e. when they finish.

This must be the fairest long distance race of them all. Or so you'd think......

Yet for the last 20 years, at least, the draw has played a major part in the outcome of the Cesarewitch. Take a look at the draw positions for the first 4 home since 1990.....

2008 11-32-28-14 (32) 2007 23-28-26-1 (33) 2006 29-32-11-20 (31) 2005 28-1-4-11 (34) 2004 18-12-32-19 (34) 2003 36-18-12-19 (36) 2002 36-35-29-1 (36) 2001 32-19-31-30 (31) 2000 18-6-20-21 (33) 1999 17-19-21-15 (32) 1998 19-22-18-4 (29) 1997 6-15-24-16 (31) 1996 15-13-26-3 (26) 1995 18-21-14-2 (21) 1994 28-25-15-12 (32) 1993 21-30-23-9 (31) 1992 10-3-18-20 (24) 1991 14-3-19-8 (22) 1990 16-24-10-22 (25)

- The winner has come from the top half of the draw for 16 of the last 19 runnings of the Cesarewitch.
- Only 1 horse has won in the last 19 years from a single figure draw.
- Only 13 horses from the 76 win and places came from a single figure draw.

I think it's pretty clear from these figures that those drawn in a low numbered stall have a serious disadvantage even though the race is run over 2 miles and a quarter.

It's back to school in tomorrow's post I'll be looking at a number of reasons, including algebra, as to why the draw may influence the result in such a long distance race.

Good luck,

Gavin.

Weekend round-up....

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin) — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 10:00:00 +0000

Five things I've learnt this weekend....

1) The draw can be just as important in long distance races as it is in sprints....

Saturday's 2 mile Northumberland Plate was the perfect example of how the draw can play a major part in deciding a race even over extreme distances with the first 4 home being drawn 4,2, 3 and 5. With the first bend coming quite soon after the stalls open it gives those drawn low a big advantage as they can assume a good position and are not forced to race wide like the rest of the field. Unfortunately, the low number that is missing, stall 1, housed my ante-post selection The Betchworth Kid but I did say that the winner would run well if getting soft ground and allowed to lead. It got both and my saver bet did the job and saved the day.

2) Mick Channon has obviously only recently started reading this blog......

as I have been saying for a while now that when Som Tala is allowed to race from the front he will show an improvement in form. If Mr Channon had started reading my thoughts back in May he could well have won the Chester Cup, Ascot Stakes and the Northumberland Plate. Ah well, better late than never Mick.

3) Clerks of the courses have no respect for the average punter....

How else can you explain the diabolical decision by Folkestones COC to water only half the track in an attempt to neutralise the affect of the draw bias. For Friday's evening meeting, according to the penetrometer readings it was 9.8 on the far side and 8.6 on the stands side giving a much faster racing surface on the far side. If any of you backed the red hot favourite George Baker in the first race you now know why you didn't win. With two very different goings on either side of the racecourse he was simply handicapped by racing on the wrong side. I'm sure owner Harry Findlay had something to say about that!

Of the 4 that raced on the now favoured far side they filled 3 of the top 4 positions at odds of 25/1, 66/1 and 66/1.

If they're so bothered by the draw bias why don't they simply position the stalls on the far side of the track?

4) Fame and Glory should have won the Derby...

I'm sure that this will split readers into two camps but I firmly believe that if Aiden O'Brien had used the same tactics that he employed in yesterday's Irish Derby at Epsom then we would have seen Fame and Glory beat Sea The Stars. He was a brilliant winner yesterday and coming from off a strong gallop really suited his style of racing. If the Epsom one-two should meet again before the end of the season then I will be firmly in the Fame and Glory camp and be placing a very large wager to back up my belief.

5) Look Here was a very worthy winner of last year's Oaks...

and she will win a big prize before the end of the year. She ran a fine race in the Coronation Cup and on Saturday over a trip a bit short of her best she again ran very well and came out of the race with great credit. I'm sure that connections are eyeing up a trip to Santa Anita in the Autumn and with America's Rachael Alexander looking likely to miss the meeting the Fillies and Mares looks just the job for her.

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While we're on the subject of the draw, there is a race coming up at Glorious Goodwood that is probably more dependent on the draw than any other race run all year. It's the Totesport Mile and basically if you're drawn low then you may as well stay at home.

The first 5 home last year were drawn 20,19,18,17 and 16! In that order.

In 2007 it was 20,14,13 (20 ran). In 2006 16 and 15 (17 ran). In 2005 16 and 13 (18 ran), 2004 20 of 21, 2003 22 of 21, 2002 21 of 21, 2001 19 of 21 and 2000 18 of 22

The reason for this anomaly is that the Mile race is run on the round course and runners are turning almost immediately after leaving the stalls. After the final bend is negotiated the camber of the track starts to take affect forcing those who are running wide to the inside rail.

DO NOT EVEN CONSIDER BETTING ON THIS RACE ANTE-POST unless you have a crystal ball that is able to predict the draw.

And once you know the draw simply look to those drawn in the 5 highest stalls to find the winner...simples!

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SPEEDWAY MONDAY FUN

Not the most exciting sport in my book with the one who gets out the traps the fastest usually winning but Saturdays British Grand Prix at the Millennium stadium had a bit more entertainment value thanks to these two having a bit of a disagreement....

Gavin.

Big race fancy.....

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin) — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 07:36:00 +0000

I was going to wait until tomorrow before revealing my selection for Saturday's big race but I have a feeling it's going to be punted so if there is anyone interested in backing my fancy I'd advise taking the early price of 20/1 before it disappears.....

NORTHUMBERLAND PLATE

It's Newcastle's biggest meeting of the year tomorrow and I've got one last free bet voucher to use for our Bonus Ball fund.

There are 3 horses in the race that interest me the most and they are...

Som Tala. He ran a fair 5th in the Ascot Stakes and appreciated the return to racing up with the pace. I'd like to see him go one step further and try to make all and from the 4 box he'll have every opportunity to do so. With the trip and track sure to suit him and a nice racing weight he looks value at around 25/1. Any easing in the ground would also help his chances.

Judgethemoment. From a trends point of view he has the best profile of any horse in the field and he was a game winner of the Ascot Stakes last time out. However, he does have a tough draw to overcome and as one who likes to race up with the pace this could prove troublesome. An out and out stayer he's sure to appreciate the trip and if it wasn't for the draw he would be an extremely confident selection.

Which leaves me siding with the third of my 3 fancies for our BBB and he is a horse I'm extremely confident will give us a big run at a big price.

The Betchworth Kid. Michael Bell's 4yo has been competing in some pretty decent Listed races of late without being totally disgraced and has proved a model of consistency throughout his career with 14 win and placed efforts from 20 starts. He is another with a good trends profile and also has some excellent form in big field handicaps with a 2nd of 21 in the Doncaster November Handicap amongst his runs. That run was off a mark of 97 and tomorrow he will be racing off 100 but with the jockey able to claim 5lb he is actually slightly better off and it's interesting to note that Bell won this race two years ago with a very similar type, Juniper Girl. The Betchworth Kid has everything in his favour and he seems to go on all types of ground so, granted luck in running (this is always a rough race), I'm very confident of a big run.

My advice is to back him each way and take the 20/1.

BBB £20 ew The Betchworth Kid at 20/1

PLUS

£1 Combination Forecast and Tricast

Som Tala, The Betchworth Kid and Judgethemoment

Good luck,

Gavin.

Royal Ascot final reflections....

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin) — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 09:15:00 +0000

A final look at last weeks Royal Ascot meeting before banishing the whole sorry episode to the back of my mind.

My 5 Best winners of the meeting....

1) CANFORD CLIFFS (COVENTRY) His 6 length demolition of a decent looking bunch of 2yo colts was about the best 2yo performance I've seen since Arazi won the Breeders Cup Juvenile. Hugely impressive.

2) FORGOTTEN VOICE (HUNT CUP) They said he was a Group horse running in a handicap and on this showing they could well be right.

3) MASTERCRAFTSMAN (St. JAMES PALACE) His wasn't the biggest margin of victory we saw all week but it must have been the gutsiest. The way he fought back when Delegator came alongside to challenge was a joy to see and it looks like Aiden O'Brien has another 'Iron Horse' on his hands. He has also won on a variety of ground from Good / Firm to Heavy and looks a true star in the making.

4) HOLBERG (QUEENS VASE) He ran out a convincing 4 length winner and was obviously impressive but what I liked about this performance was the way he quickened up and won going away from the field. It seems the 2 mile trip was right up his street and he should make up into a nice cup horse for next year.

5) JEALOUS AGAIN (QUEEN MARY) Not many people were paying attention to the American horses at the beginning of the week but after this breathtaking run from Wesley Ward's filly that certainly changed. Sprinting 4 lengths clear at the two furlong pole she showed terrific speed to remain clear of the field right up to the line. After Ward's success last week I would imagine there'll be a few more American trained horses running at Ascot next year.

and my favourite moment of the entire meeting.....

Forget Yeats, my personal favourite moment has to be Henry Cecil winning again at Royal Ascot. I fancied Native Ruler more than the winner but it was still great to see Henry back in the winners enclosure at the Royal meeting. Father Time hadn't looked that straightforward of rides previous to this victory but I think a step up in trip may bring about even more improvement in him and the St Leger looks the obvious target to me.

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PUNTERS HIT IN THE POCKET AGAIN

In Matt's post yesterday on his Geegeez blog he was fairly critical of the Racing Post for their plan to charge it's readers access to the majority of content on their website. I have to agree that this is a major disappointment and depending on how much they decide to charge it could lead to a lot of disgruntlement from angry customers.

But I think a far greater worry is the new pricing structure that Racing UK have now implemented due to the collapse of sports satellite Setanta. Before the Irish company went into receivership you could buy the complete Setanta package for £12 a month and this included all their sports channels and the all important Racing UK.

Football, golf, rugby and racing were all covered for the one price and represented pretty good value considering the content. Now however with RUK forced to go it alone as a separate channel they want to charge you £20 for the privilege of receiving just their racing coverage.

I doubt it's just me that sees this as representing a giant step backwards and one that will not go down very well with any of their subscribers. Apparently this £20 includes a compulsory charge of £9.99 to cover the cost of accessing their online site but I really think they should reconsider this strategy and continue charging separately to those customers who wish to take either of the services available. Not everybody wants to use their online site and charging customers for something they don't need, want or use has never been good business practice.

Obviously being a stand alone channel is going to have added costs compared to being under the umbrella of a larger satellite company but £10 for the satellite racing channel seems a fair price to me considering we have now lost a lot of other sports content. If this isn't financially viable then I think they may need to take a leaf out of the free-to-air AtTheRaces book and copy their business model or even, dare I say it, consider merging the two companies. I think this will eventually happen anyway but that's a discussion for another day....

All in all though, it's been a bad few days for the wallets and purses of us racing fans.

Good luck,

Gavin.

Royal Ascot reflections Part 1

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin) — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 10:07:00 +0000

It was a week I'd rather forget and one which ranks as probably the worst punting experiences I've ever had but there's no denying this years Royal Ascot had everything you could ask for from a horse race meeting. Here are a few of my favourite highlights (and lowlights) from the week.....

The Graham Taylor award for the worst tactics of the week....

It has to be Godolphin for the shambles of their race riding tactics in the Queen Anne. First they put Frankie, the King of Ascot, on their second string before handing the ride on the highest rated horse in the world to the youngster Ahmed Ajtebi. If that wasn't baffling enough he then rides Gladiatorus as a pacemaker and sets off like he's being chased by the devil himself.

My race riding skills only extend to playing G1 Jockey on my son's Wii but even I could see that pushing your horse to be 5 lengths clear of the field on a straight course isn't a good idea. I would say that, for me, it was the worst ride I have ever seen in a Group 1 race (and that includes Greville Starkey on Dancing Brave in the Derby)

The Biggest Flop of the week (sponsored by Viagra)...

It has to be Gladiatorus again as he just ran so badly for such a well fancied runner. Maybe winning easily out of season in Dubai isn't a true reflection of the horses ability and his rating needs adjusting accordingly or maybe he just had a bad day due to the way he was ridden. I guess we'll find out next time he runs.

A close second would be Doctor Freemantle who ran as the betting suggested he would i.e. badly. The bookmakers couldn't give him away and even though he had some very smart form in the book he was never in contention and was very disappointing.

The Robert De Niro best gangster look of the week....

No contest here with Aiden O'Brien winning hands down for having his sunglasses glued to his head for the entire meeting. I sat there open mouthed as he went up to collect the trophy for Mastercraftsman from the Queen as he still had his sunglasses on as he mounted the platform. With just a couple of strides to go he suddenly remembered and took them off just as he approached Her Majesty. Aiden you are a great trainer but top hat and tails with a pair of dark sunglasses just isn't cool.

The Katie Price (aka Jordan) worst lay of the week...

Unfortunately, as it turned out I completely mis-read the opening race of the meeting and, setting the tone for the rest of the week, I did my proverbials by laying Paco Boy. It's time to admit I was wrong and say that Paco Boy does stay a mile and looks a very tough, genuine and reliable Group 1 horse.

The Methuselah old timer award...

The race may be the weakest of the meeting and run over an extreme distance for a flat race but for the 12yo Caracciola to win as he did was simply amazing. When he won at York the time before he became the oldest horse to win a Listed race and with this new success he now becomes the oldest horse to ever win at Royal Ascot. Talk of a trip for the Melbourne Cup may be aiming a bit high but he has proved himself a very versatile horse and a grand servant for his owner and trainer. He'll just have to hope Yeats isn't kept in training until he's that age.

More tomorrow....

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Bonus Ball Prizepool

Good old 'Enry pulled us out of the hole and we now have a very tidy looking £237.50 in the BBB prize fund. I thought his Twice Over was very unlucky to be run out of a place and our each way bet go down but I'm sure he'll win a Group 1 race some time soon and we'll get our money back.

There is one more attempt left to add even more to the fund and I have a really nice bet lined up for the Northumberland Plate on Saturday.

Good luck,

Gavin.

Royal Ascot Day 4...

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin) — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 07:24:00 +0000

Things are going from bad to worse as my horses continue to be beaten. I thought I'd pulled it out of the fire yesterday when Jamie Spencer started his run on Secret Society. A furlong out there was nothing going better and I was getting quite excited but as has been the norm this week he was denied by the faster finishing Fareer and it just added to my list of big priced placed horses.

I've now had a 33/1 third, 25/1 third, 22/1 second, 20/1 second, 12/1 second, 12/1 third and a 9/1 third. Surely I must get a winner before the end of the week?

As if that wasn't enough my Placepot went down on the last leg despite having 4 horses running for me and the £3500 dividend certainly hasn't helped my mood any.

What with cackling Willie Carson, the awful Wiltshire / Parrott double act and all these losers this is fast becoming my least favourite Royal Ascot ever.

In fact the only thing that has made me smile all week was when I saw the ludicrous hat that Princess Eugene was wearing yesterday. It look liked a luminous green Sky satellite dish and the way it was perched on the front of her head looked as if she was trying to get reception for the At The Races satellite channel. All that money and still no style.

On to today and Henry has three Royal runners...

2.30 CHACHAMAIDEE £20 E/W

3.05 FATHER TIME £10 E/W

3.05 NATIVE RULER £20

We finally got some cash into the prize-fund yesterday when Henry's Flame of Gibraltar ran a fine race to finish second at 12/1. Here's hoping we can get a few more quid in the pot today.

Good luck,

Gavin.

ROYAL ASCOT DAY 3

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin) — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 21:35:00 +0000

D:Ream got it wrong as I can definitely say 'Things have not got any better' and my love affair with Royal Ascot is now at breaking point.

Paco's Boy wins a Group 1 mile, the favourite wins the Hunt Cup, the Australians win the sprints, the Yanks win the 2yo's, The Irish and French win the Group 1's and I, like Godolphin, win nothing.

Desperate times call for desperate measures! .

Our 'Enry was a bit unlucky today with Twice Over as he looked a sure thing for the frame 1/2 furlong out but obviously as with most good each way bets he weakened and finished 4th to deny us our place money.

He has three runners today and we're going large to try and get some money in the BBB pot....

£20ew FLAME OF GIBRALTAR 3.05 ASCOT

£20ew HYADES 4.20 ASCOT

£20ew ON OUR WAY 4.55 ASCOT

plus a £1ew Patent

and £16 on the Queen to wear a Green hat on Ladies Day. (I told you times were desperate!)

Surely we can get something out of that little lot.....

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ASCOT GOLD CUP

The big race of the day is the Gold Cup and according to the trends 8yo's can't win this race. If that is true then the first two in the betting are in trouble. If you also take into account the poor form of the Godolphin horses then 4 of the first 5 in the betting can be ignored. This leaves you with a few choices...

1) Patkai is a good thing and will win - probable
2) The winner will defy a long-standing trend - possible
3) There will be a shock result – not impossible
4) Godolphin will strike form and win the Gold Cup - unlikely

The trends say 1 & 2 can't happen, the bookmakers and punters reckon 3 won't occur and I can't see number 4 happening either.

I don't like this race at all and will expect the unexpected.

Good luck,

Gavin.

Royal Ascot, Day 2.....

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin) — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 19:49:00 +0000

Oh dear, what a disaster!

My day didn't start off too well when my son had all the milk before I got up and I couldn't have my daily bowl of Rice Krispies. I'm never at my best when I've not had my snap, crackle and pop in the morning.

Things went from bad to worse when all my horses run unplaced and the horse I put up as a lay went and won the first.

I then thought things had turned back again by getting the Placepot up at Ascot and was delighted to see it pay nearly £4ooo but when I checked my ticket I remembered I had changed my mind at the last minute and put Main Aim in instead of Paco Boy (and that was the only leg I went down in).

And then 10 minutes ago in a bid to take my mind off things I had a quick game of poker. And quick it was as I got knocked out on the very first hand when my pair of Aces got beaten by a pair of Kings.

But that's not even the worst of it. I foolishly promised all the punters in my betting shop that I'd run around Trecco Bay Holiday Park in my boxer shorts if Paco Boy won the Queen Anne. So if you here on the news of anyone being carted off by the police on a South Wales caravan site, it's probably me. I just hope it's not raining tomorrow.

As D:Ream once famously sang, 'Things, can only get better...'

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It's seems I'm destined not to be able to get this BB Prizepool up to a decent amount. But I'm going to keep trying and for today I'm going to put all our eggs in one basket and hope Henry can get us out of trouble with....

£25 each way Twice Over 3.45pm Ascot

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Staking Plans

Just a quick note to clear something up regarding the staking plans I covered last week....

I only used Spotlight selections for an example of how the staking plans would work and they were never intended to be used as tips for you to back. I gave enough losers out myself last week without adding to your misery with someone else's.

Apparently, a few readers have been blindly backing the horses and losing money. Obviously I'm sorry this has happened but I think I made it quite clear in my posts that they were being used solely as an independent source of results data.

I just hope you didn't use the Labouchere staking plan to back them....

Good luck,

Gavin.

ASCOT DAY 1

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin) — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 18:09:00 +0000

It's here at last, my favourite meeting of the year. I like Cheltenham, I like Aintree but I love Royal Ascot. The results have been kind to me over the years and I'm hoping I can continue that winning feeling this year too.
I even managed to tip the colour of the Queens hat on this blog last year! For those who are interested, this year on Ladies day it will be Green.

BONUS BALL BETS

As I promised on Saturday I'll be placing a series of bets this week at the Royal Meeting to try and boost the Prize Pool for all of you readers you were kind enough to enter the Classic Double BBB. Henry Cecil doesn't have any runners on the Tuesday but we'll be backing all of his for the rest of the week. Today I've come up with a few outsiders to try and boost the kitty....

And before anyone emails in to have a moan, yes I know these are different to the Trends Selections in my guide but these are the horses I would back if I wasn't restrained by picking my horses solely on past results. They are solely my attempt to boost the BB funds.

As always do what you like with them...back them, lay them or ignore them!

Queen Anne 2.30

It may be a Group 1 race but only two horses have won at the level before. There is however another runner who in his younger days ran a fine second in this highest of grades and at 66/1 might be worth a little each way dabble. He's in form, will be staying on well and I'd much rather back him than Aqlaam!

MAC LOVE will be the first bet £2.50ew at 66/1

Kings Stand 3.05

He did me a big favour at Newmarket so for old times sake I'll go with him here...

AMOUR PROPRE £10 win

St James Palace 3.45

I backed the next one a few times last season but could never catch him when he did win. He probably won't beat Mastercraftsman tomorrow but he might nick a place and at 20/1 that wouldn't be too bad...

SOUL CITY £5ew 20/1

Coventry Stakes 4.20

We went with this one in the National Stakes at Sandown in our recent trends guide but he could only finish 3rd that day. He was however staying on very strongly that night and is sure to appreciate the 6f here. Another big priced runner ...

RAINES CROSS £5ew 20/1

Ascot Stakes 4.55

If Som Tala is ridden from, or near, the front I think we'll see a change in recent fortunes for him. All of his best form has been when he has been ridden this way so come on Frankie, kick on!

SOM TALA £5ew 12/1

Windsor Castle 5.30

This is a tough race! We'll have another little speculative bet on a big outsider..

ITSTHURSDAYALREADY £5ew 20/1

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5 to lay?

For those of you who prefer to lay the horses rather than back them here are five horses that I think will get beat this week.

Queen Anne (Tuesday 2.30pm). Paco Boy

I just can't see him staying the mile in what is probably going to be a fiercely run race. With Gladiatorus surely doing his usual thing upfront this race could well be over by the furlong pole and Paco Boy will be hard pressed to lay down any sort of a challenge.

Gold Cup (Thursday 3.45pm) Yeats and Geordieland

They have filled the first two places in the Gold Cup for the last two years but it's not looking good for either of them this time around. You would have to go back all the way to 1900 to find the last 8yo to win the Gold Cup and that's a pretty big stat. 13 have tried, and failed, in the last 10 years alone. Mind you, you had to go about that far back to find the last French Bred to win the Grand National and we all know what happened to that stat!

Hampton Court Stakes (Thursday 4.55pm). Glass Harmonium.

This race will never be top of Sir Michael Stoute's list of favoured contests because in the last 10 years he has provided 3 x favs, 2 x 2nd favs and a 3rd fav and all were beaten including last year's favourite Kensington Oval. You have to admire him for having another go but the omens don't look good for this one.

Coronation Stakes (Friday 3.45pm) Elusive Wave

Placed horses from the French 1000 Guineas have a fairly decent record in the Coronation Stakes but that's not the case when it comes to the winner as all 7 to have run here in the last 14 years have been beaten.

Again, do what you like with them. Lay them, back them or ignore them.

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Trends Guide

And if all that's still not enough to satisfy your Royal Ascot Cravings then there's still plenty of time left to get your copy of the Royal Ascot Trends Guide.

If you don't fancy forking out for the full guide then there's also the choice of purchasing a special guide for each seperate day at just £9.95.

Simply click below to purchase....

>>> Click here for ROYAL ASCOT FESTIVAL TRENDS

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Staking Plans

After yesterday's set of results (2/1, loser, loser, loser, loser, loser) we'll have a final look at how it affected each of the staking plans before putting them to one side while we concentrate on the little matter of Royal Ascot.

Level Stakes

Starting bank £8849

6 bets of £100 for a return of £300

Finishing bank is £8549

Square Root Level Stakes

We start off at £8798 and our first bet is a £100 on a 2/1 winner but this isn't enough to get us back in profit so our stakes remain at £100

Finishing bank is £8498

Fibonacci

The bank is down to £6649 but we start with £200 on a 2/1 winner.

Unfortunately the next 5 bets lose with stakes of

£100, £100, £200, £300 & £500 meaning even more trouble for the system

Finishing bank is £5849

Reverse Labouchere

We start with £8586 and a £105 first bet which wins at 2/1

Adding the 7 to the end of the chain our next bet becomes £135, which loses, and is followed by

£120 bet on a loser

£60 bet on a loser and the end of the chain again. Starting the sequence back up we stake

£105 loser

finishing the day with a bank of

£8271 our next stake is £105 and the chain is x-x-3-4-x-x

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Good luck,

Gavin.

Staking Plan Day 3 & 4

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin) — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 20:49:00 +0000

It seems spotlight in the Racing Post carried on where he left off on Friday as he managed another 5 losers (+ 2 non runners) yesterday to go with the 5 from the day before.

At least it will show how well (or badly!) each staking plan is able to cope with such a losing run.

LEVEL STAKES

Starting bank £9849. All bets £100
10 losers means -£1000
making the bank £8849

SQUARE ROOT STAKING PLAN

Starting bank £9798. Next bet £100
As we remain under the £10000 initial bank all losers are for £100 meaning the loss over the two days is also £1000
The bank is now at £8798

FIBONACCI

Uh oh, I smell trouble...
Starting bank is £10,149 and our first bet for Friday is £500
It lost as did the next with £800 riding on it.
That's the end of our the chain so it's time to lick our wounds and go back to the start...
£100 loser
£100 loser
£200 loser
Onto Saturday
£300 loser
£500 loser £800 loser

Another chain completed without success. Back to the beginning
£100 loser
£100 loser

Gulp! The bank is now at £6649 and our next bet is £200

If you thought that was bad, here comes the....

LABOUCHERE PLAN

We start off with £8734, a first bet of £675 and a very long chain (and about to get a whole lot bigger) that looks like x-x-x-x-x-x-7-10-x-x-17-24-31-38
£675 loser
£780 loser
£885 loser
£990 loser
£1095 los.....Where's that shotgun........BANG!

Time to knock the Labouchere on the head, it doesn't work backing these bigger priced horses while using this staking plan as it relies on a much better strike rate than we are able to achieve.

So if that isn't working then surely the...

REVERSE LABOUCHERE must be?

Er no. As both systems were designed for betting on even money chances the theory was that if the original Labouchere plan is failing then doing the opposite would surely succeed. Which does sound logical but unfortunately we're not dealing with even money shots here and until we get a winner we can't see how backing at bigger odds will affect this particular staking plan.

But one of the things that the Reverse Labouchere was created for was that it sets out to try and limit your losses when these bad runs come along. So let's see if it can do that.....

Starting bank £9636 and a first bet of the day of £105. The chain of numbers is at the start i.e. 1-2-3-4-5-6
£105 loser
£105 loser
£105 loser
reset the chain
£105 loser
£105 loser
£105 loser
reset the chain
£105 loser
£105 loser
£105 loser
reset the chain
£105 loser
Loss of £1050

Bad, but not much worse than the Level Stakes and it has limited the losses like it intended to.
Finishing bank £8586
Next bet £105
Chain x-2-3-4-5-x

Today's Spotlight selections from Salisbury;
It's a Date, Esteem Machine, Sunceleb, Diana's Choice, Volochvoka and Broughtons Paradis

Gavin.

BBB News.....

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin) — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 07:42:00 +0000

BONUS BALL BET

Oh dear! After last week's unsuccessful Classic double (close but no cigar) and a complete blowout from our other horses we're left staring at an empty pot for this month's Bonus Ball Prizefund.

But fear not! For all those of you (and there were hundreds of you) who sent in a number for a share of our double attempt last week I've got another cunning plan to boost our bonus ball betting bank. I've gone a bit mad and signed up for just about every betting site on the internet and now have a wheelbarrow full of Free betting vouchers.

My aim is now to use these free bets over the 5 days of Ascot and get some money into the pot. I'll be doing every one of Henry Cecils runners at the meeting and picking two horses a day to put some cash on. The stakes will be decided once I've counted up how much I've got to punt with.

Any returns from these special Ascot bets will only be available to those readers who emailed their guess in time to qualify for the Classic Double last week i.e. before 7.30pm last Saturday.

You can still enter the competition for this month but you if you win you will only share the Saturday BBB winnings.

Okay, I hope that's clear. Here are today's Saturday BB Bets....

A trends based look at the 3.10 York

12 of the last 13 winners ran within the last month so we lose...
Favourite Girl (35),Masterofdisguise (50),Dark Mischief (41),Lucky Numbers (36),The Kyllachy Kid (37),Kingswinford (35) & Gone Hunting (77)

12/13 had 4 or more career runs so we lose....
Macdillon

As 12/13 carried 9st or less we lose ....
Proclaim,Thunderous Mood,Akhenaten & Swiss Diva

And 12/13 ran in a h'cap last time meaning we now lose
Imperial Guest & Prime Mood

12/13 ran in a sprint (5or6f) last time....
Quanah Parker, Definightly & Parisian Pyramid didn't

11/13 made top 5 last time.
We lose Rawayton

and are left with 2 Sloop Johnb & Coleorton Choice,

With 9/13 winners running from the front or prominent and Coleorton Choice a confirmed front runner plus Sloop Johnb's only 2 attempts at 6F seeing him finish 9/10 & 10/16 we'll go with the former and make the likeliest trends winner Coleorton Choice.

3.10 York Selection: Coleorton Choice

My thanks to Gary for the following 2 selections....

4.00 Sandown
Despite 6 '0's in his form there are plenty of reasons for thinking Blessed Place can instigate a revival of fortunes today. His 3 runs this season have all been at 6F on fast ground but today he encounters 5F on a softish surface which are his ideal conditions. He also has the tongue tie back on for the first time this season and is reunited with B.Clay who has won on him twice. His last win was over this C & D and drawn in stall 12 means this confirmed front runner can grab the far rail.
Selection: Blessed Place

2.20 Sandown

Although she's not won since her debut Maggie Lou looks to be well handicapped and sure to appreciate this stiffer test. Ridden for the first time today by A.Munro she should improve on her staying on 4th at Haydock last time and given that she has already won on softish ground and the manner in which she stayed on last time, this stiff 7F suggests that she could be a nice each way wager.
Selection: Maggie Lou

Well do 3 x £2.50ew Singles and a 50pew Patent

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Staking plans.

I'm a bit pushed for time today as I have my son's School Fete to attend so I will go through both yesterdays results (5 losers for Spotlight of the Racing Post!) and todays runners in a special Sunday post.

We'll stick with Spotlight at York where he's gone for...
Hillview Boy, Acrosstic, Dark Mischief, Marching Time, William Morgan, Catigo and Castles in the Air.
Remember: The horses used are not given out as tips! I'm just using them as examples.

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ROYAL ASCOT FESTIVAL TRENDS

Only 3 days until the meeting starts and the Guide is really taking shape now.

Days 1 - 3 are now ready for download with all the usual trends, facts, figures, stats and ratings included. We're just waiting on the final 48 hour decs to complete the missing blanks and make those all important selections. There are a few races where we have already gone through the trends to find the winner and you can see these at the end of each section.

The fully completed guides for each day will be ready 24 hours before that day's racing starts and can be downloaded as many times as you like. All members will be notified whenever the Guides are updated.

The finished guide will be about 200 pages long and cover every race run at the Festival.

One of the runners from our Ante-Post sheet is now a non runner but the other 3 all look intented runners and are still available at 25/1 twice and 40/1. All have perfect trends profiles and look to be worth a small each way investment at this time. Remember it was on this sheet that we first highlighted 33/1 winner Something Wells at the Cheltenham Festival back in March.

To purchase your copy simply login to the Members Area, if you are already signed up, or click below to go straight to the payment page...
>>> Click here for ROYAL ASCOT FESTIVAL TRENDS

It promises to be a great meeting and we've left no stone unturned to bring you the definitive Bookie Bashing guide. GET YOUR COPY NOW!

Good luck,
Gavin.

Staking Plans...Day 2

noreply@blogger.com (Gavin) — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 09:54:00 +0000

Using yesterday's results we have loser/loser/9-4 winner/1-3 winner/loser/loser/loser/loser
Let's see how each staking plan coped with those results....

LEVEL STAKES PLAN
Starting bank...£10,191
£100 on each selection = -£342
Finishing bank...£9849

SQUARE ROOT STAKING PLAN
Starting bank....£10,182
1st bet £113.49 lost
2nd bet £108.31 lost
This now takes us under our £10000 starting bank so we revert to £100 level stakes
3rd bet £100 won at 9/4 and puts the bank back into profit...£10,186
4th bet £113.63 won at 1/3 for a profit of £37
5th bet £114.93 lost
6th bet £110.39 lost and again takes our bank below the £10,000
7th bet £100 lost
8th bet £100 lost

leaving the bank at £9798 and our next bet as £100

FIBONACCI

Starting bank £10,191 and £200 bet
1st bet lost
2nd bet is now £300 which also lost
3rd bet £500 which wins at 9/4
4th bet is back to the start of the number series £100 which wins at 1-3
5th bet is again at the start £100 which lost
6th bet £100 lost
7th bet £200 lost
8th bet £300 lost

leaving our bank at £10,149 but our next bet as £500

LABOUCHERE

The bank starts at £10,145 and our first bet as £195
which lost so the chain now looks like x-x-3-4-x-x-7-10-13 and the next bet now becomes 16 x £15 = £240
Another loser and we now stake £285 (19 units) which thankfully won at 9/4
We're not out of trouble yet as our next bet is £255 (17 units) which also won but at 1/3
The number chain now looks like x-x-x-x-x-x-7-10-x-x
Now our stake stays at 17 units and loses
as does the next with £360 (24 units) on it
plus the next with £465 (31 units)
and the next £570 (38 units).

The bank is at £8734 and our next bet a whopping £675.
The number chain now looks like x-x-x-x-x-x-7-10-x-x-17-24-31-38

Pass the shotgun!

REVERSE LABOUCHERE

Here we start off with £10,165 and a stake of £135 . The number chain is x-x-3-4-5-6-x-x
Our first bet loses so we cross off the 3 and the 6
and stake £135 again (6+3) which loses again and wipes out our chain.

The staking system was originally designed for roulette and betting even money fancies (i.e. Red or Black, Odd or Even etc..). Doing every bet at evens when you wipe out the chain you will lose 21 units, in this case £315, but as we backed a 3/1 winner yesterday though the chain has been cleared we have only lost 7 units (£105) and our bank now stands at £9895.

So we re-write the number sequence out again 1-2-3-4-5-6 and start from the beginning...
First bet is £105 or 7 units(6+1) and wins at 9/4
add the 7 to the end and our next bet is 8 units (£120) and wins at 1/3
8 to the end and we now stake £135.
It lost so we cross out the 8 and 1 and stake £135 (2=7 units)
Another loser and again we cross out first and last leaving x-x-3-4-5-6-x-x
We bet £135 again (3+6) and lose again
Another £135 bet (4 + 5) and we have another loser that wipes out our second chain.

This time we have lost £259 and our bank stands at £9636.
The number chain resets to 1-2-3-4-5-6 to make our first bet today £105 (6 + 1 units)

Today's horses come from York...
Parbold Hill, Handsome Falcon, Hawk Mountain, Orpen Arms, Sloop JohnB, Spirit of Adjisa.

I'll be back tomorrow with all the latest progress.

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ROYAL ASCOT FESTIVAL TRENDS

Only 4 days until the meeting starts and the Guide is beginning to take shape now.

Day 1 and day 2 are now ready for download with all the usual trends, facts, figures, stats and ratings included. We're just waiting on the final 48 hour decs to complete the missing blanks and make those all important selections. There are a few races where we have already gone through the trends to find the winner and you can see these at the end of each section.

Each day will be ready 24 hours before the meeting starts and can be downloaded as many times as you like. All members will be notified whenever the Guides are updated.

The finished guide will be about 200 pages long and cover every race run at the Festival.

Also ready for download now is our famous '4 for the meeting' ante-post sheet. This time we've got a 12/1 hope, two 25/1 shots and a big 40/1 outsider for the big race on the final day of the meeting.All have perfect trends profiles and have got to be worth a small each way investment at this time. Remember it was on this sheet that we first highlighted 33/1 winner Something Wells at the Cheltenham Festival back in March.

To purchase your copy simply login to the Members Area, if you are already signed up, or click below to go straight to the payment page...

>>> Click here for ROYAL ASCOT FESTIVAL TRENDS

It promises to be a great meeting and we've left no stone unturned to bring you the definitive Bookie Bashing guide. GET YOUR COPY NOW!

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FRIDAY FUN

With Royal Ascot fast approaching what better time to take a look back at last years meeting in all it's glory...

Good luck,
Gavin.

Click here for ROYAL ASCOT FESTIVAL TRENDS