Passing The Elbow: The Finishing Touches...

It's a bizarre feeling really, dear reader, putting together a jumps package to keep us warm through the Winter, when the weather outside is making us cold in Summer. Quite topsy turvy.

No matter, for the fruits of Gavin's and my labour are nearly ripe - perhaps an analogy involving the ripeness of your humble scribes' collective fruits was not the best, but you know what I mean...

In case you've been living under a stone for the last couple of weeks (or perhaps just on holiday), TrainerTrackStats (or TTS), the Winter version of TrainerFlatStats, will be ready for release on Friday at midday, to much fanfare - or at least a bloke with a kazoo tootling a reveille.

To get you (further) in the mood for this auspicious event, I've got a little something for you. More on that in a minute.

First, I just want to touch on what TTS is, and what it isn't.

TTS is NOT a guaranteed winner a day at odds of 8/13.
TTS is NOT an occasional 66/1 winner finding tool.
TTS does NOT have runners every day.
TTS is NOT a retirement plan.
TTS will NOT make you rich beyond your wildest imaginings.
TTS DOES have losing runs. Sometimes they're nasty, and go on for DAYS.

But...

TTS IS a consistent, statistics-based winner-finding tool.
TTS DOES sometimes have lots of runners (especially on Saturdays)
TTS DOES provide loads of winners at odds of up to 14/1.
TTS DOES keep you entertained throughout the Winter.
TTS CAN put you in front with your betting.
TTS CAN allow you to enjoy your betting, by winning a bit.

And.....

TTS DOES WORK!

Over the past two jumps seasons (i.e. from September 2006 to April 2007, and the same period 2007-8), TTS has delivered its followers - of whom a good number are reading this now - just over 160 points profit to Betfair odds (after commissions have been deducted).

16 months, 160 points profit. Einstein is not required to do the math on this one: that's ten points a month on average. If a point to you is £20, then that's worth £200 a month to you. If you bet £50, then it's £500.

Like I say, there are no ridiculous claims of retirement here. Let's face it, all those pro's being interviewed on Racing UK and Attheraces who look like they've bought their ensembles from Oxfam are testament - lest we needed reminding - that professional punters are few, and they enjoy a meagre living for the most part.

If you would rather buy the stereotypes that the media portray, of wide boys and loaded bookies, then indulge yourself in the recent Panorama on BBC's iPlayer: an atrocious piece of lazy misconception reinforcing claptrap on a truly innovative platform.

Reality is a little different. The bookies now use betfair as much as the punters, and have become traders. Most won't even take a decent bet any more unless they can 'arb it' (i.e. back it at a bigger price on betfair than they've just laid you).

So, if you want to revel in the belief that there are lots of millionaires made from punting, then far be it from me to disabuse you of that halcyon (but vastly inaccurate) notion.

If however you believe that horseracing is a pastime or hobby - or maybe even, like me, you have a passion for it; and if you think that breaking even over the course of a year constitutes at least a minor victory, then you may enjoy this.

Phew! Deep breath....

Now that the soapbox is safely tucked away (until next time) - well it is still the home of racing ranting! - back to that little something I have for you.

If you right click the link below and select 'Save As', you will be able to download TTS Lite, a taster version of the manual that is available from Friday.

There are, as you should expect by now, no catches: download it, have a look at it, and I hope you enjoy it.

You may note on most pages that there are quotations in boxes. These are some of the testimonials I've received since the turn of the year - there were many more before I decided to start collecting some of them - and they are all genuine and unsolicited.

These people have enjoyed TTS in the past, and this season I am planning to make it impossible for you to ignore the allure! More tomorrow.

But now... if you haven't already done so... download and - I hope - enjoy. Feel free to comment in the space below.

Right click and select 'Save as' to download TTS Lite to your PC :o)

Ciao Pronto!
Matt

p.s. If you've ever wondered what I look like - and I hope you haven't! - you can see my 'in front of the cameras' video debut here.

Despatches: Fin Du Siecle...

It feels, dear reader, very much like the last day of school today. You see, the 30th April is the end of the TrainerTrackStats (TTS) season.

TTS runs, as many of you know, from beginning of September to end of April. And, as many of you also know, it's been nicely lining your pockets (and mine!) during this time.

The full results sheet is now up on the site here. This was the second season that I have published my research, and I'm somewhat proud of the fact that its also the second season that TTS followers have made a healthy return. For those of you with an appetite for such things, the 2006/7 seasonal results are here.

The tale of the tape is that in 2006/7, TTS made just over 60 points profit to betfair odds (£1,207 to £20 stakes).

In the season just finished, we made a fantastic 96.8 points profit to betfair odds (or £1,936 to £20 stakes).

If you think these results are anything less than impressive, then you are either VERY new to horse racing and believe there is an alchemy solution somewhere, or you are awaiting a lift in the blue lighted ice cream van to the nut house... ;o)

I charged the princely fee of £57 in the first season and, based on the success, perversely only £37 in the second season. Why? Because I want the little guy to get closer to being in front.

The results of yesterday's survey - so far, 408 have replied (thanks a million: I've been amazed at the response rate!) - are that 66% of respondents are losing or breaking even in their betting overall.

And also, interestingly, 66% of you use betfair or another betting exchange to bet most often. (For the other third of you, do you know you're losing money by not using betfair?! Click the link on the left of the page, get £25 for depositing a tenner, and get 20% better odds the next time you place a bet!!)

My point is that two thirds of you are taking advantage of betfair AND STILL DOING NO BETTER THAN BREAKING EVEN!

Which means that before betfair, I can include the 31% (this includes me!) who said they are winning a bit, and confidently state that 97% of us were doing no better than breaking even.

So, here it is: rule number one. If you want to stand any chance of winning at betting, open a betfair account NOW. Better still, do it through my link on the left hand side, and we'll both get a thank you from betfair (you £25, me £20). Happy days :o)

So, that places into context, what a good result it is to make 60 or 100 points from a rigid statistical approach to betting, using a tool such as TTS.

TrainerFlatStats (now all but off the market, except for subscription only) has had a mercurial season to date, with a flying start quickly countered by a week in the doldrums. The only TFS qualifier today won at 6/1, which was a welcome riposte to what had gone before, and illustrates that it only takes one winner to make a big difference on the monthly points tally. TFS is marginally in front for the fledgling season.

******

Ok, what else did I learn from the survey?

A whopping 95.5% of you bet a few times a week up to every day. Wow!

Average stake is about five pounds, with a few big players out there. 50p or £50 punter: you're all equally welcome here. Nag3 has no hierarchy (except that I'm the one with the virtual pen!).

[Incidentally, for those of you who work in an office environment, here's my number one tip for meetings. If you want to get your point across, make sure you are the scribe. No matter what is said in the meeting, if you are the minute taker you have a degree of freedom to 'interpret' / 'massage' what others have said so that their words align merrily with your tune... Apologies if that's slightly off topic!]

A really interesting point that came out from the survey results is that less than 10% of you bet most often at a high street bookie. Now we probably all pop in from time to time, but its amazing to think that in the ten years or so that the internet has been truly mainstream, 90% of us now prefer to wager online. Wow again!

And only 5% of you don't have an online betting account of some description. That's a third wow!

A further point that surprised me - pleasantly - about the survey results is that only 6.6% of you didn't think it was possibly to make money consistently from betting.

One sixth of you weren't sure, and an excellent optimistic 77.2% of you believe that it is possible to make consistent money betting. That's bloody marvellous, guys and girls! Because that's what we're about here, and we don't want the nay-sayers and profits of doom discolouring our bright skies.

If you're one of the 'don't know' camp, then I hope that you will be in the 'yes' camp after a time with Nag3. :o)

You can see all of the survey responses (less people's email addresses of course!) here.

Incidentally, one of the things you can't see in the attached is the comments about the one thing that would make you a better bettor. An overwhelming majority of you said that DISCIPLINE was the key that you were missing.

I tend to agree with you (having layed Bankable this afternoon, even though I thought it would probably win), and I'll be doing some stuff on how to train yourself to be better disciplined in the coming weeks.

The five lucky winners of TFS guides this time are:

brenmarbay
ptchsmith
geoffstraw
m45adams
clifjenkinson

Well done to you guys, and - again - thanks a lot to everyone who shared their views. It's proved truly instructive once again.

******

Moving on, and I did another little video for you last night, on how to trade on football using betfair (another reason to get an account if you haven't already done so!!)

As with the first one, the production quality is pretty shabby. And as with the first one I've still got a bad head cold, so apologies for the nasal narration.

However, I made a couple of quid in real time, and it's a simple enough strategy that anyone can follow. Intermediate or advanced punters will probably know this already, so bear with me while I bring some of the newcomers in the Nag3 class 'up to speed'. :o)

Click the link to watch the vid! [and apologies if you can't see it - seems to be quite small...]

Watch Matt make money online...

That's all for today - in case you're wondering where I'll be watching the footy tonight, I won't. See the comment on yesterday's blog post to establish where I'll be. I was going to ban this user for blatant spamming, but given that it's my girlfriend, I can't really!!

Ciao ciao.
Matt

Jumping To The Fore!

Crikey, is it Friday already, dear reader? And not just any old Friday, but Friday before a Bank Holiday! Woohoo!

Now lest you are concerned about the forecast (those readers in Australia and NZ need not fret, nor need you gloat!!), let me assure you that the Met Office is predicting broadly sunny weather for the weekend. And of course, the Met Office are known for their infallibility... Ahem... Well, at least it gives us hope! :)

Now then, I know we've only just finished York's Juddmonte meeting and - as I've mentioned - we are not yet even at the August Bank Holiday.

But I need to remind you that darker times are ahead...

Yes, racing fans, the evening racing will draw to a close next week (although there will be plenty of floodlit action from Wolves, Kempton and the new Dundalk - not to mention Great Leighs if it ever opens!), and the jumping action starts to ramp up from the beginning of September.

In my piece yesterday, apart from blowing out on the placepot at York (though Mine ran a great race in 4th at 16/1, and I did tip the 2yo to win the Nunthorpe! Amazing training performance from a brilliant up and coming trainer. Look out for John Best), I managed to bag the forecast at Chester (the third horse mentioned in the exacta was a non-runner).

Incidentally, the third home in that race was the only other horse with experience and was the fourth best drawn horse in the race. Shocking then that his odds were 80/1!!!

My tip in the sprint, Calypso King, was a non-runner.

But what I really want to mention - again - is the amazing power of backing trainers at tracks. Although Jonjo's chaser was disappointing at Stratford, the boys at Fontwell did me proud.

Here is the full tale of the tape for the trainers flagged up yesterday:

5.25 1st 25/1, 2nd 33/1, 4th 8/1, 6th 25/1, 11th 16/1, PU 10/1
5.55 6th 4/1, UR 16/1
6.25 1st 11/2, 3rd 14/1
6.55 No runners
7.25 5th 14/1
7.55 4th 25/1

Brendan Powell and Alan King, described by me yesterday as legends, underlined their status on this card.

Powell slammed in the forecast in the first (paid £621.27!) with 25/1 and 33/1 shots; King snaffled the third with an 11/2 shot (Powell only managing 3rd at 14/1).

The other lesser trainers had some huge priced beasties run close but without any danger of rolled tobacco.

A unit on each of the runners last night would have returned a very tidy profit.

As a further teaser for you, I've put the candidate trainer stats up on a page... but with the trainers names missing! And, in case you think you can compare the table with the Racing Post charts or some such, I've got some bad news for you. I only look at the record from September to April, and I only look at horses priced 14/1 or shorter. I know, I'm a sneaky blighter.

Anyway, if you'd like to see what's going on, have a look at my TrainerTrackStats preview page.

Bear in mind that, unless stated otherwise, the 'fine tuning' has yet to be done. That is, the records are for all of a trainer's runners in the defined time and price parameters. But you'll get the idea, for sure.

Like I said, I'm excited about this season, because there are so many strong trends. The problem is going to be whittling them down. I think what I'll do this season is nominate the top two or three a la TrainerFlatStats, and mention the others as worthy of a second glance (though for subscribers they'll not feature in the emails). That said, this is not yet caste in stone.

I don't really fancy much today, but draw bias at Thirsk (high numbers in sprints on good to firm) leads me to take a close look at Call For Liberty in the 1.30 (best form, best draw). His chief rivals, in the betting at least, are drawn 2 and 3 (i.e. almost the worst draws possible).

In the 4.45, a 5f sprint, its interesting that the top four in the market are all badly drawn. Racing Post informs us that 7/10 5f sprints this season have gone to the top three stalls. Perm them in exactas and CSF's (half stake on each). That's Yorke's Folly, Smiddy Hill, and Miacarla. It may also be worth chucking in Princess Cleo (drawn 10) for a great chance to collect.

That's it from me. Back later with Friday fun, though please note there may be little of interest on the blog this weekend, as I will be researching Trainer Track Stats and may try to get away for a day or two as well.

Finally, just a quick line to say thank you to those people who were kind enough to comment on my little story the other day. I know it didn't really belong here, but I just wanted to give a virtual voice to some of my thoughts. Thanks again.

Until later, pip pip!
Matt