Favourites Phenomenon: Dark Clouds Gathering?

How often does it happen, dear reader, that you say something is simple and the very next day it kicks you in the teeth?

Not for nothing is my favourite saying, "there's many a slip 'twixt cup and lip", and it pays to exercise additional diligence when your cups are system rules and your lips are equine beasties.

But not with FP, it seems. To date, there have been very few slips, and none of them have resulted in spillage... which is to say in layman's terms that I slurped up my fourth point of the week today, from a possible four.

Today, I had to sweat a little more than the last couple of days, but not quite as much as on Sunday. When I say 'sweat', and when I ask in the teasing title whether the forecast had begun to turn nasty, I am actually trying to inject a hint of drama and intrigue into a system review that has, to this point, been the investment equivalent of boiling water.

Now, in fairness, it should be pointed out that the nature of this type of methodology is that they are characterized by winning days, but one should not lose sight of the impact a losing day can have.

Matt Watson, the system author, sensibly recommends a decent sized bank (which varies according to the level you intend to trade at), and a losing day would wipe out the easy pickings banked thus far.

So, a modicum of balance attempted, I'll report back again tomorrow on Day Five of the great water boiling road test!

******

Tomorrow is the second day of Goodwood's early season meeting, and it will be interesting to see if the high draw bias over 1m1f maintains itself. Today's 13 runner handicap was won by the 9/2 TrainerFlatStats runner, McConnell, who was drawn 10 of 13. The places were taken by horses drawn 8 and 11 (the latter a 50/1 shot), and the fourth home was drawn 12.

The 1m1f race tomorrow is a 14 runner maiden fillies event, which normally shouts 'NO BET' at me. But I can't resist having the traps on my side, and I like Quirina to optimize her draw in the top stall (14 of 14). Dangers are likely to be Madame Hoi and Lush, but I'll take John Gosden's filly against this mob.

At Salisbury, it may pay to lean on the high side in the sprint races, so I'll be having a very small interest in Vanadium in the lady amateur riders' handicap (another race where I'd normally never wager in!).

Later on, Stamford Blue, who won here during a purple patch last season, and is well drawn for Ron Harris, could go well. He has actually won at the track three times; started his winning run at this time last season (here); and is back to a mark below his top winning handicap rating. Current form means a leap of faith is required, but given a fair few positives, he's worth a small each way tickle.

******

If you prefer a more mundane (and more likely) winning wager tomorrow, you might prefer to check out the Favourites Phenomenon system...

Until next time...
Matt

p.s. Breaking News: TFS just had its second winner of the day at 11/4 (from 7/2), to complement McConnell at 9/2 (from 15/2). Although the guide is no longer available to purchase, you can subscribe for a very fair monthly fee, and you get 7 days free trial. Click here to take advantage of my generosity!

Favourites Phenomenon Update: Candy From A Baby!

Remember World of Sport, dear reader? ITV's lame attempt at competing with BBC's far superior Saturday sports magazine programme had just two things going for it:

1. Dickie Davies, the presenter with the bizarre Cruella Deville silver streak in his coiffed bouffant
2. Bald fat men in leotards profusely sweating over each other in the working mens' clubs of the North

And it was to this latter allusion that I was reminded over the last couple of days, with the familiar refrain of dear old Shirley Crabtree (or 'Big Daddy' to 70's wrestling fans) ringing in my ears as I reached my profit target for the day.

"Easy! Easy! Easy!"

That's how it's been with Favourites Phenomenon (FP, if you will) for the last two days, as I've collected on my very first qualifying race to withdraw my desired unit profit.

In fact, my exposure - having been as high as £75.80 on Sunday - has yet to top a tenner in the two days since, and I've collected a facile three units 'gravy' without turning a hair.

I'll continue to track FP's progress throughout the week, and - in case you want to follow it yourself (ahead of time!) - you can pick up a copy here:

Click here to go to Favourites' Phenomenon page

******

Elsewhere, and I noticed on Saturday that another of my alternative ten ran - and won - in the shape of the Henry Cecil trained Rattan. Sent off a warm 5/2 favourite, he sluiced up by five lengths and the assistant trainer admitted he wasn't even fully wound up. Surely Royal Ascot beckons (Royal Hunt Cup would be my guess).

Less impressive, largely because he ran terribly, was Astrodome who is also one of the ten. He ran this evening, and think has just about finished. He was sent off 7/2 so is clearly expected to do better. Don't write off just yet.

Record to date for the ten is: eleven runs, three wins, four places and four unplaced.

More on FP as the week progresses...

Matt

System Review: Favourites Phenomenon

Systems, dear reader, are my favourite means of making money from my betting. The rationale behind this should be obvious: if something has proven to work in the past, then why shouldn't it work in the future?

An equally obvious response to this is that some systems can be perceived as back fitted. That is, there are no logical reasons for the system rules, and therefore the creator was merely using historical info to come up with something with a positive number in the profit and loss column.

Occasionally, these 'systems' can continue to make money because there may be 'hidden' logic, or reasons that are not at first obvious. But, generally, if a system doesn't have logic to its ruleset, then it's a piece of poo...

So, having pilloried a badly written system with false claims last week, I approach these two systems with a little more optimism.

Favourites Phenomenon (FP hereafter for, I hope, obvious reasons!) is the system we'll look at this week.

FP is a backing system that relies on its staking plan as much as its rules. It's what's known as a 'Stop at a Winner' (or SAW) system, which means, erm, you stop after you've backed a winner. Now there's nothing new about this staking strategy, but aligned with the right methodology or system, it can be a very powerful approach.

First up with the FP, it has a refreshingly candid and unhyperbolic sales page . A rarity still, but I think the future of systems sales pages.

FP does not promise to make you a million in your first month using it. But it does systematically raise and then dispel a majority of concerns you might have about using the system. (Incidentally, if you have a question that isn't covered, the author encourages you to share it with him, and he will reply).

Moreover, it's gotten excellent results over a sustained period of time. When you sign up, you can see the results for the last two and a half years, and the results for May are 15 points profit, using Level 3.

Profit for the month is less if you'd used Levels 1 or 2.

"Levels Matt? What are you talking about?", I hear you ask. (At least, I thought I heard you ask...)

Sorry, I should have mentioned: in order to make this accessible to beginners and experienced punters alike, and to risk averse and venture capitalists (!) alike, there are three levels of approach.

Level 1 is for beginners or risk averse punters, and has the earliest 'stop loss' point. Levels 2 and 3 are gradually more aggressive in their stop loss points.

The biggest profits are to be had with Level 3, but also the greatest exposure to a heavy loss day. These do happen, but are mercifully rare (roughly two or three a year).

FP has been on the market for around a month now, and it has already received very strong feedback from one of the more independent betting sites on the web, Secret Betting Club.

Furthermore, the system author (Matt Watson) has been in regular touch with me since before I started the blog, when I was a vendor of TrainerTrackStats way back in 2006. He has consistently demonstrated an insight into his racing, and is a shrewd guy.

He offers a full money back refund with no quibbles, which as you know, is a pre-condition for me reviewing any product. And, moreover, he is extremely approachable. So, if you're not sure about anything (and I mean anything!), then simply drop Matt a line and he will come back to you with a reply.

[I know this because I've harrassed him a couple of times myself in the last fortnight!]

Anyway, the nature of the system is such that I cannot post the selections ahead of time, but I will post daily with an update. We are trying to win a point a day, and we stop as soon as that goal is achieved.

In order to win our point, we back horses under certain conditions. At a given point, if things have not gone in our favour, we wipe our metaphorical mouth, and wait for tomorrow.

FP comes complete with a calculator to work out whether you should be playing on a given day, and what your potential liability will be.

If you can't wait for the results this week, or if you just want to check out the sales page, you can do so here:

Click here to go to Favourites' Phenomenon page

Today, after a couple of early frustrations, I made my point profit on Race 6, and retired to the beer garden for the afternoon. My liability was a manageable £75.80 for my target profit of £10.

Stay tuned during the week for further updates.

******

Next up (probably next week) will be the Frontline Lay system which, as the name suggests, is a lay product. I received an email inviting me to promote this about two weeks ago, but didn't think anything of it. (The truth is, as you might expect, I receive a lot of such emails).

Having not heard of the author before, I was a tad guarded about the system. However, I've since received an email from a regular correspondent telling me that he is using it with some success. So I thought I'd track it on here for a time.

The sales pitch is a little novice-y, but that's irrelevant really. We're after performance over pitch every time!

As I write this, I'm awaiting a reply from Ross with a review copy, so will revert as soon as I can on this.

Hope you've had a great weekend!
Matt

Lay 51 Operation: Setting The Record Straight

A quick clarification, dear reader, in the interests of fairness.

I have been emailed today by Stephen Brookes, producer and marketer of betting systems, and he has asked me to point out some factual inaccuracies in my blog post yesterday. I'm happy to do this as I didn't realise they were inaccurate.

So: Stephen Brookes is different from Steven Lee Jones: they are not one and the same.
The product was not produced by Stephen but, rather, marketed by him. Although he would acknowledge (I hope) that he should have checked the quality of the product being marketed, it is unfair / wrong to attribute this steaming pile of proverbial to him.

Although there remain a lot of reprobates in the betting systems product vendor space, Mr Brookes cannot be considered one of them, on the evidence of a product that is not his.

However, I maintain, Lay 51 Operation is rubbish and you should not buy it, in my opinion.

Hope this clarifies.

That's it for now.
Matt

Some You Win... But Not With Betfair Loophole!

And some, dear reader, you just do not. The Chester Cup is mare of a race for me, and this year was no exception. Four 'universal truths' of the past decade, three remain intact. But, importantly, one of them (poor previous performance at the track) now breached.

Now, of course with hindsight, I can see that qualitatively, Bulwark's sole previous course start was a close sixth from draw 15 in the same race in 2006. It's all so easy now...!

And in the sprint, where I sided with the two Kings, Orchisios and Of Swords, the Sword was a non-runner, but alas for Orchisios he broke a leg and has passed to another equine plane.

Better luck was to be had at Beverley, where the sprint advice proved to be gravy.

The three 5f contests were all won by the highest drawn horse, and this is by no means a rarity. At odds of 5/2, 7/1 and 4/1, that's pretty good.

Better yet, we got the forecast up in the handicap sprint for older horses, Namir beating Glasshoughton (Pawan was an unlucky fourth).

Keep more than an eye out for the high boxes in the sprints at Beverley, when the ground is riding good or faster.

******

Pretty uninspiring fare tomorrow, but at Nottingham we have another chance to play the draw. High numbers have a definite edge, so lets see what we can do with that.

In the opening maiden over six furlongs, there is a short priced (around evens) favourite coming from box 8 of 14. But she's up against the colts here, and I'll look elsewhere for value. Kenton Street has the plum draw in 14, and ran a creditable fourth in his only start last season.

With the aggressive Alan Munro in the saddle, he could try to make all. Look out also for the lady, Little Cee. She ran a stinker when fancied on debut, and David Elsworth is a wily trainer. If she's not being targeted for handicaps in due course, she could run well against the chaps.

Art Princess looks to have an excellent chance of going one better than her runner up spot in the fillies juvenile maiden (2.00). Oppose Readily, who will have to be pretty good to overcome her draw, if I'm reading things correctly.

In the closing apprentice handicap (4.45), best jockey and best draw combine for Bold Argument who, while not a controversial or inspired selection, must go close in a race with a lot of dross in it.

Small stakes only: keep the powder dry for another day is my call.

******

Finally, I've had a couple of emails about a product that you are very likely to have heard of recently: Betfair Loophole.

Here's my take. If there was ever a loophole on Betfair, it would be spotted in about five minutes flat and closed.

Moreover, if you had a loophole on Betfair, would you chance it being closed by broadcasting it and trying to tell people for just £55?!

I know that I wouldn't. As much as I love you fine people, I'd be keeping firmly shtum on that one.

So, I've not seen the product and I can't say for sure that its guff. But the premise is most certainly preposterous!

[Incidentally, if you've purchased the aforementioned product, do please leave a comment with your experiences to date... just click the 'comments' link beneath this post.]

That's all folks!
Matt

The Laying System Selections As Promised...

Ok, so here goes... A new system which we will track here for a fortnight. Now, before I crack on with today's selections, a few words about the parameters for this system.

Selections only qualify for laying if their SP is between 3/1 and 15/2 AND their Betfair price is between 4.4 and 10.4.

Compared with the other systems reviewed on these pages previously, the horses we're taking on here are clearly a little longer priced and, as a result, you will need a degree more fortitude and discipline for this if, as could happen, we start with a winner (Heaven forbid!).

So, to the chase... Today's selections, subject to meeting the above price criteria, are:

*Newc 17.00 – Kunte Kinteh*

*Yarm 15.40 – Celtic Memories*
*Yarm 15.40 – Rotation*
Yarm 15.40 – Three No Trumps
Yarm 16.40 – Lady Romanov

*Warw 15.50 – Squiffy*
*Warw 16.20 – Feeling Wonderful*
*Warw 16.50 – Snake Hips*
Warw 16.50 – English Archer
Warw 16.50 – Hopeful Isabella
Warw 17.20 – Bournonville

(Horses noted with a * are currently within the price criteria)

We will lay each qualifiying horse to win our usual notional £20.

Let battle commence!

Matt

3 From 4 Beaten: Bank Vault Report Strikes Again

A two part post today, dear reader. In this post, we'll review yesterday's action before posting today's thoughts and, of course, the Bank Vault Report selections, later.

Yesterday, our first selection, Birkside, was a non-runner, meaning that the first horse we laid was Thinking Positive. He was always well held in second, and never looked like winning.

So, again, the first horse in the sequence was beaten, meaning we now have a profit of £60 on the week, with a maximum liability of £27 (for yesterday's 2.7 favourite).

I sincerely hope that we will have the first horse win once this week, so that I can illustrate the progressive nature of the staking plan!

Incidentally, in terms of confidence factors, two of the other three horses were also beaten, meaning that this week we've got eleven out of fifteen lays correct to date. As I mentioned previously, this gives me a little more comfort that if the first horse does actually win, one (or more) of the animals we've loaded up behind it, will get turned over.

Today's selections will follow later.

As for my backing choices yesterday, well it was a mixed bag. Flying Bantam won nicely, as suggested, at 9/2, which was generous in my opinion. From the highest draw, he was always handy and charged through a split a furlong out. The first four home were drawn 14, 13, 11 and 10 out of 14 runners (and the horse drawn 12 was a non-runner!). The forecast paid £103.02 and the tricast over £500!

Unfortunately for me, I decided to adopt the 'perm high numbers' strategy on the 5 furlong sprint rather than the 7 furlong contest. Bugger! Confoundingly, the winner of this contest was drawn in trap 1!

Trap 1 also won the five furlong race here at the last meeting, and I am certain that the ground staff have done something to the drainage on that part of the track. (The only part the five furlong stretch shares with the other distances is the last furlong and a half or so). The only consistent observation from the two sprint races is that middle draws were clearly unfavoured. The last three home were drawn 7,8,9 of 15.

For now then, we will definitely be avoiding draw biases on the 5f course.

So Beverley yesterday was a case of 'great call, wrong race'!

Onwards and downwards... More later, including today's Bank Vault Report lays, and maybe some more of my own crackpot racing theories. M

Blimey - 5 out of 6 Rolled Over! Day Three Selections

A warm Wednesday welcome dear reader, for it is the middle of the week. :)

Yesterday, the Bank Vault Report managed to get a whopping five out of six lay selections beaten! Alas, we're only supposed to nominate five horses, so we'll exclude the last one and just claim four out of five. ;)

Importantly, from a progression perspective, the first horse yesterday, La Guancha, was a loser, which means - for the second day - there was no staking increment required to cover previous losses on the day.

So after Day Two, we are showing £40 profit and a maximum liability of £27 (what we'd have lost if La Guancha had won, it being a bigger price than the previous day's first selection).

Today's choices are:

15.00 Brig BIRKSIDE @2.0

16.10 Nott THINKING POSITIVE @2.2

16.50 Bev TRIVIA @2.7

19.20 Kemp DOUBLE BILL @2.7

21.00 Leop WESTLAKE @2.3


On the backing front, I managed to get Amanda Carter beaten at Redcar, but my e/w shout High Five Society could only manage 5th at 20/1. Interestingly, the winner (Sir Duke) was having his first handicap run after the obligatory three maiden efforts. These types are always worth noting, as they pop up pretty frequently. The Duke was a tidy 12/1. In fairness, though, I've rarely seen a poorer race.

Up at Chester, and the draw continues to confound me. Trap 8 won the sprint, meaning my box one and two theory went west again.

However, I did call H Harrison's race to the letter, with the horse sitting in behind the speed and quickening in the last furlong to win all out. 7/2 was a surprisingly fat return too.

Today there is racing at Beverley, and one of the strongest draw biases in the country will again be on parade. High numbers are paramount at this track, almost regardless of the distance of the race.

In the 2.50 Flying Bantam has a lot going for him from cage 14 (of 14), and will be tough to beat.

For a fun bet, in the 4.20 (a 5 furlong fillies' handicap - not normally my idea of fun!), I will perm the top four stalls (14-17) in combination exactas and straight forecasts (half stake on each). That's Minimum Fuss (16/1), Violet's Pride (16/1), Muara (6/1) and Princess Cleo (7/1).

Will be nice if it comes off! Small stakes fun wager only though, for sure.

That's all for now.
Matt

A Great Start: Day 2 Bank Vault Report Lays Attached.

Good morning to you, dear reader, and welcome to Day 2 of the Bank Vault Report review.

If you remember from yesterday, we are aiming to win a target £20 per day, using a progressive staking system with horses that are selected by the secret method in the Bank Vault Report.

Yesterday, the first horse lost, which means that we won our £20 with a maximum liability of £23 (the horse, Toi Express, was quoted at 2.3 - the price available at 8 am yesterday - and we'll use the prices quoted in the example for the purposes of the review).

Incidentally, an interesting point to track is how many of the selections get beaten. Although of course we only need one to lose to make our money on the day, it is heartening to see more horses beaten as this gives me more confidence that the role of luck will be only peripheral in the selection process.

Today's selections are as follows:

15.00 Redc LA GUARDIA @2.7

15.55 Sals CAPE VELVET @2.5

15.45 Sals APPLEBY @2.4

16.00 Redc HENRY BERNSTEIN @2.7

18.45 Chest BRASSINI @2.6

21.00 Worc CORNELIUS @2.2

From a backing perspective, again my desire to get the short priced ones beaten has surfaced, and I'm looking to oppose Amanda Carter in the 5.30 at Redcar. She's odds on in a handicap and, although she won well enough last time, there is always value in opposing odds on in handicaps, even if just trying to find a placed horse for an each way tickle.

So let's go each way tickling... it is fair to say that this is a poor race, so small stakes only. But I like the profile of High Five Society. Bred for this kind of trip, and having been contesting slightly better races recently, Paul Eddery's mount might be the type to hit the board at around 16/1. Disappointly for punters here, there are only 15 runners, so no fourth place payout.

Elsewhere, and they race at Chester tonight. Everyone knows about the low draw bias on the Roodeye in sprints, and yet there's still value to be had there. Let's side with the nags berthed one and two, Kings College Boy and Foxy Music respectively.

In the 7.45, over seven furlongs, H Harrison looks to have a great chance. He's likely to be held up just behind what should be a strong gallop and, if the slowing traffic ahead can be negotiated, he may very well win again. 11/4 to looks pretty fair value to me.

Good luck today, more from me tomorrow.
Matt

The Bank Vault System: Intro and Selections

Hello again, dear reader, and welcome to Monday's bulletin. As promised, and slightly later than planned, this week we're going to be tracking a system called the Bank Vault Report.

I've had hold of it for a week or so now, and it looks interesting. But of course the proof of the pudding is always in the eating (or, in our case, the punting).

So what is the Bank Vault Report all about? Well, the first thing to say is that it is a laying system, i.e. (as I'm sure you know by now), finding horses to get beaten.

The nature of the system is that it is progressive, and therefore not necessarily to everyone's tastes. By 'progressive', I mean that each day we will identify five horses to lay, and we will quit when we've layed a loser.

In practice, this might work like so:

Horse A has odds of 2.0 (i.e. evens)
Horse B has odds of 2.5 (6/4)
Horse C has odds of 2.2 (6/5)
Horse D has odds of 1.8 (4/5)
Horse E has odds of 2.0 (evens)

Before we start, we must do two things:

1) Decide how much we are aiming to win, and
2) Calculate what our total liability would be if we were to be unsuccessful with all five horses. Note, its extremely unlikely that all five horses will win (and therefore we lose), but it can happen, and we need to plan for this upfront, and be comfortable with it.

Ok, so let's say we want to win £10. We would lay the first horse for £10 at 2.0. If it loses, job done for the day, as we have our required tenner, and we move on to tomorrow. (I've ignored exchange commissions in this example, which may eat up to 50p from that £10 return).

But if Horse A wins, we then move to horse B, where we are now trying to win £20 (i.e. our £10 daily target, plus the £10 losing stake in the first race). Thus, in this example, we would be staking £30 on Horse B losing. Again, if Horse B loses, that's it for the day. We've made our money and we stop.

So it goes on through up to five horses. In this example, in the extremely unlikely event that all five horses won, we would have a total liability of £386.

Clearly, then, it is very important to know what that number is prior to starting, so if you're not comfortable with it, you aim to win a smaller amount of money until the bank starts growing.

You don't need to worry about doing the maths, as the Bank Vault Report comes with a handy bit of software called the lay calculator, which does the sums for you. (Beware though, it doesn't seem to like my Windows Vista machine. But then, nor does most of the rest of my previously perfectly compatible software! Vista stinks! Big time!)

The Bank Vault Report system makes a couple of very important stipulations about the horses which you should be looking to oppose. Of course, I can't divulge these, as that is the nub of the system.

However, I can say that these 'hidden keys' are very logical and effective.

So, enough of the preamble. Today's lay selections are as follows (remember we will stop when we've made our target profit):

14.30 NA TOI EXPRESS @2.3

16.30 NA KEEP IT SECRET @2.7

19.15 Pont ALAMBIC @2.4

20.15 Pont EXPENSIVE @2.5

20.55 Rosc BIG SYD @2.7

Throughout the week (until Friday), I'll keep track of where we are, what our biggest liability was, and so on, for a notional target profit of £20 per day.

If you want to know a little more about the Bank Vault Report, and just can't wait until Friday, you can have a sneak peek here:

http://tinyurl.com/2u83w7

That's all for now.
Matt

Racing Secrets [Exposed]: Thumbs Up From Nag3

Hello again dear reader, and welcome to Wednesday. Its time to analyse Racing Secrets [Exposed], the product which has been generating the lay selections you've seen here over the last seven days.

Over the week, the final results were as follows:

Date	Course	Horse	Odds	Result	P/L to £20	P/L
23-May	Sedgefield	Cannon Fire	1.5	2	£20	£20
23-May	Ayr	Fitzroy Crossing	0.8	7	£20	£40
24-May	Goodwood	Bicoastal	2.5	5	£20	£60
24-May	Southwell	Gold Flame	1.25	1	-£25	£35
25-May	Stratford	Ingratitude	0.91	2	£20	£55
25-May	Pontefract	Grand Fleet	0.91	3	£20	£75
26-May	Newmarket	Right To Play	2	1	-£40	£35
26-May	Stratford	Helvetio	3.5	9	£20	£55
27-May	Newmarket	Transcend	0.91	1	-£18	£37
28-May	Redcar	Lacework	1.25	1	-£25	£12
28-May	Leicester	Medieval Maiden	3	1 3	£20	£32
29-May	Chepstow	Penang Cinta	1.75	4	£20	£52
29-May	Redcar	Monteboli	1.75	3	£20	£72

Bets	13
Losers	9
Lose %	69.23
Av Odds	1.694615

As you can see, I managed to pick 13 horses (and one non-runner), and get nine of them beaten. Not bad, but people do better. However, when you consider that the average odds of selections was around 13/8, that's a lot of short ones turned over!

Indeed, the average odds of the winners (and therefore the ones where I would have paid out) was less still at lower than 11/8.

I have to say that I've been very impressed with these results, and will continue to lay one or two a day, based on the pretty straightforward rule based system expounded in Racing Secrets [Exposed].

The guide comes in pdf format (readable by all computers) and is 80 pages long. It has five sections, some of which may be of less interest if you're already an experienced punter.

Section 1 is quite brief and outlines the notions of overrounds and betting percentages, and the general principle of value.

In the next section, the author gives an overview of laying, which is worth a read even if you already strike this type of wager now.

Section 3 again is pretty brief and walks you through the Racing Post website, with specific focus on the elements which are of interest when trying to find losing horses. So, even if you know your way around the RP website, it's useful to note the specific data that will contribute to finding losers.

Then in section 4, which is the main guts of the guide, the rules for the system are outlined. Of course, I can't tell you what these are. But what I can say is that there is a series of five 'Primary' warning signs which might indicate that a horse is a false favourite.

Thereafter, there's a set of 'Secondary' warning signs, also useful but considered less influential than the first set. If I'm honest, when making my selections, I actually only used the 'primary' warnings, and yet still managed to come out well in front.

The warnings are (slightly) different for flat and jumps races, but are all framed around common sense.

Finally, in section 5, the author shares his own approach to maximising value. This is predicated on a degree of discipline in terms of not laying over a certain price, and there is loads more than just the price consideration in this closing piece.

Overall, I'm impressed with the guide. Because of the introductory sections, it can be picked up by a novice or an experienced punter within a few days. The sense of the warning system has been seen this week, when we've managed to get nine horses beaten, with the longest priced of them being a 7/2 shot that pulled up and a 3/1 favourite that finished last of 13!

One thing to note is that it does take a bit of time to find the best choice of selection: I reckon about half an hour on any day when you're looking for a serious lay or two.

But most people spend at least ten minutes scanning the racing pages anyway and - given the results - I'd consider it time well spent. For instance, two losing lays for £20 each makes £40 for half an hour's work. Not sure about you, but I'm happy to earn £80 an hour or more...

Importantly, as with any product I review, the guide comes with a full eight week guarantee. So you can paper trade for a good two months before actually risking a bean of cash, either with betfair or on the guide.

To read more about Racing Secrets [Exposed], and to get your copy, click on:

http://tinyurl.com/377z6p


I'm laying another two today!

Ciao pronto!

Matt

Playing With Laying... A Beginners' Guide

Today I'd like to have a quick look at a relatively new concept in betting (for the average punter at least): laying.

If you've been living on Mars or somewhere and don't know what laying is, it is basically what your bookmaker does every time he takes your bet. Striking a bet is an agreement between to parties, where one party will pay out in ratio to the other party's wager.

An example will help: I think Shergar will win the 2.20 at Plumpton. His odds are 2/1. I stake £10 at 2/1, giving me the chance to win £20. The bookie who takes the bet has essentially wagered on all the other horses to win at odds of 1/2.

So there are two possible outcomes: 1) Shergar wins and the bookmaker pays me £20, or 2) Shergar doesn't win and I pay the bookmaker £10.

And that's it. Why am I telling you this? Well, again, Martians aside, most everyone reading this will have heard of the betting exchanges - and especially betfair.

(Incidentally, if you bet on horses or football and you don't have a betfair account, you are missing out on the best odds on pretty much every horse or team in every race or competition).

The point about betting exchanges is that you may have only ever used them to get the best odds on a given event. Nothing wrong with that - indeed its just good sense.

But every time you strike a bet there, someone else (maybe me, maybe another reader, maybe a bloke in Botswana or Bangalore) has 'played bookmaker' and layed the bet.

Now the first thing to say about laying a bet on betfair is, as you may have already cottoned on, that you will typically have to offer slightly better odds than the bookmaker.

This may seem unattractive at first glance, but its not, for one very good reason. A traditional bookmaker is obliged to take your bet, irrespective of which horse or team you want to bet, up to a certain financial limit. However, when we lay a bet on betfair, we are able to be hyper-selective about the horses or teams we lay.

In practice, this means that Ladbrokes for instance will take varying amounts of money on all horses in a race, and their 'book' will be massively skewed towards the favourites (i.e. they will have greater liabilities on the more favoured horses, and therefore a favourite winning will cost them much more than they take on a race).

But the betfair layer can choose any, all or no horses to lay in a given race. You look at a race, and think a favourite is solid. So you leave it well alone. In another race, you think the favourite can be beaten and is a false price. So you offer odds on the horse to others.

I've been sent a review copy of a new guide that's currently doing the rounds, called Racing Secrets Exposed. Its 80 pages long, and is packed with useful information around betting basics and how to optimise your experiences with the betting exchanges.

Its real value however lies in the approach the guide takes to identifying likely false favourites. It has a series of selection criteria (five primary elements) which are simple enough to check using www.racingpost.co.uk. The author recommends just finding one horse a day to lay, but of course thats up to you.

I asked Kris, the author, to give me a lay each day that I could share with you, so that you could see how it did. I also agreed that I'd only share the lays with you after they'd run, but you can rest assured that I receive the emails prior to the events.

Yesterday's lay was Court Emperor, which finished fourth at Huntingdon last night. His SP of 9/2 was bigger than usual odds, and indeed Kris had laid him at 3/1 earlier in the day.

Today's lay runs at Southwell tonight and is likely to go off at shorter than 2/1 (currently trading at 6/4 to 13/8).

Although I promised not to divulge these tips until after, I am trying the system out for myself and, after picking Cannon Fire (2nd 6/4) and Fitzroy Crossing (7th 4/5), I had a good day paper trading.

Today's lays using the system are:
3.10 Goodwood: Bicoastal
6.50 Southwell: Gold Flame

To find out more about the system, go to:

http://tinyurl.com/377z6p

The football playoffs are this weekend and, after watching the FA Cup and Champions' League finals in the last few days, I know that these matches are very tough to call.

For this reason, I have laid both my bets (on Bristol Rovers, 10 pts at 11/4, and Blackpool, 5 point at 5/2) off at 1.67 and 1.71 respectively. I still think that Rovers and Blackpool will win their matches, thus I have only taken my stake money and a small profit out.

If you followed the advice, I'd suggest you at least get out for your stakes, thus giving you a couple of nice free bets on the finals. Good luck!

Finally, I will be going to Sandown next Thursday 31st May for the Brigadier Stakes evening meeting. Due to a friend being unable to attend, I have a spare Premier Enclosure ticket (free!) that I'd be happy to give to any reader who might be planning to go. And don't worry, you won't have to hang around with me and my drinking / betting buddies...

If you want it, just email me at enquiries@trainerflatstats.com - if you don't hear back, the ticket's gone (and sorry).

Finally, finally, the revamp of nag3 (www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk) is coming along. I hope to have much of the initial content posted there over the course of the next week. Do please let me know what you think, and whether there's anything else you'd be interested in seeing.

Pip pip!
Matt