Royal Ascot Trends: The West of Wednesday...

A muted start on day one, dear weader (a touch of the Elmer Fudd's in this post...!), with Haradasun doing the beeswax for Gavin in the opening Queen Anne Stakes, but not much else to cheer home alas.

Gavin also put up 3^rd placed, Twice Over at 8/1, while my selections in the juvenile events ran well without threatening to win (Orizaba missed the break and finished fifth behind impressive winner, Art Connoisseur; Light The Fire showed up well for a long way but faded to tenth behind the 100/1 (!) winner, trained by one of last season’s trainers to follow, John Best).

Still, four race previews and one 5/1 winner puts us marginally in front.

TrainerFlatStats weighed in too, with one runner: Yamal winning at 9/2. FOUR days left to get your copy should be so inclined. Window shuts (and is firmly bolted!) on Saturday at 5.35.

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To Wednesday and, as well as the Prince of Wales Stakes already previewed by Gavin, let’s take a look at a few of the other races.

Firstly, my sincere gratitude to the excellent work of Paul Jones, whose pieces are paraphrased here due to time constraints on my part. You can read his work, and also watch the Royal Ascot racing AND check out loads of other cool stuff at the Attheraces website. And it’s all gratis! It’s about the best Royal Ascot site on the web (after Nag3 of course!)

2.30 Jersey Stakes

18 go to post. A Group winning horse has not won since 1986. Lose the top four, including Jupiter Pluvius.

Six of the last twelve winners won last time out, and all bar one finished in the first four LTO. Scratching those that didn’t reduces the field to eight.

There is a standout form race, which appears to be the key prep for this: the King Charles II Stakes. Half of the last eight winners (yes, that’s four!) were first or second in the above race. The front two both line up here, and are Calming Influence and Stimulation respectively.

They’ll do for me, and I’ll take the latter to reverse placings tomorrow.

Selection: Stimulation
Danger: Calming Influence

The Windsor Forest (3.05), a mile race restricted to the girls, has only been going since 2004, and its been pretty much Sir Michael Stoute’s race. He’s won it twice and had the second in another year. Last year, he could only manage 5^th and 7^th.

There’s little else to go on just yet, and Stoute runs the favourite, Heaven Sent tomorrow. Let’s not overcomplicate this.

My old mate Gerard Butler’s mare, Baharah might follow her home.

Selection: Heaven Sent
Danger: Baharah

The Royal Hunt Cup (4.20) is the most curious of races for a banker bet to emerge in, but Luca Cumani’s Bankable holds this mantle for many punters. Officially a stone well in, and easy peasy winner of both starts this season (and his last two last year), it’s not hard to see why.

The trends in the race are thus:

- All bar two of the last 22 winners were four or five years old.

- Only trend busting Mine in 2004 (a 6yo) has carried more than 9 stone to victory since 1991 (Bankable carries 9-02!)

- 7 of the last eleven winners were drawn close to either rail (within six stalls)

- Half of the last 14 winners ran in the Victoria Cup

Although Bankable may well win, there is lots of value to be had elsewhere. (Hotpots do get rolled over in this race).

We’ll Come from the Michael Jarvis stable is well drawn in 27, carries less than 9-00, is a 4yo, and must improve for his first run of the season, a staying on fourth having missed the break… in the Victoria Cup. At around 8/1, he looks a rock solid each way alternative to the Banka.

Selection: We’ll Come
Danger: Bankable

The Queen Mary (4.55), a kilometre sprint for young ladies (or 2yo fillies, if you prefer), is a race much favoured by Messrs Hannon and Channon, and a race I’ve backed many winners in over the years.

The trends say:

- 12 of the last 13 won last time out

- 6 of the last 8 (though not the last two) were unbeaten

- Channon has won thrice in the last decade

Selection: Lucky Leigh
Danger: Baileys Cacao

Staying with the girls in the ‘lucky last’ at 5.30, the Listed Sandringham handicap over a mile, and some quite strong patterns to assist…

- All bar two of the last 13 winners had a handicap rating of at least 90 (delete the bottom five)

- Ten of the last dozen winners had won already that season (only two left!)

The two on the shortlist then are Rosaleen and Jazz Jam. The latter won on the all weather and will find this rather different. Meanwhile, the former won nicely over course and distance before being a tad outclassed in a recognised Oaks trial last time.

Selection: Rosaleen
Danger: Jazz Jam

Good luck with your Woyal Wednesday Wagers, and let’s pwey we win a wickle bit. (where’s that wascal wabbit, Elmer?!)

www.trainerflatstats.com

Royal Ascot Trends: Prince of Wales Stakes

Some notable trends for this race include;

- no horse aged 6 years or older has won since 1995

- 9 out of last 10 winners posted a top 3 finish last time

- Only one horse in the last decade was making his seasonal re-appearance

- Only 1 mare has won in the last decade

Unfortunately this does not narrow the field down very much but when we learn that this race was only granted Group 1 status in 2000, some very strong trends emerge.

- In the 8 years of this race being run as a Group 1 EVERY winner has previously scored at Group 1 level AND contested a Group 1 race last time out. Applying this trend to the field it leaves just 3 horses, Duke of Marmalade, Literato and Pressing

- Also, since being awarded Group 1 status the race has seen the winner come from the top 4 in the betting for all 8 renewals. This would seem to eliminate Literato

Another very interesting stat for this race is that the last four 5-y-o winners all contested the Prince of Wales the previous year as a 4-y-o.
Michael Jarvis's Pressing contested this as a 4-y-o when he finished 5th to Manduro. The trainer won the race in 2004 with Rakti and on this basis I will select him as the value alternative to the favourite.

Selection: Pressing
Danger: Duke of Marmalade

Royal Ascot Trends: St James Palace Stakes

One of the most interesting races of the week with the form of the three European 2000 Guineas set to go under the microscope. Some strong trends for this race and very few recent shock results should make this a good punting race.

- Unsurprisingly 13 of the last 14 winners had been placed in the top 4 of either the English, Irish or French 2000 Guineas.

- Of the last 10 winners, all had at least 2 career wins prior to lining up for this race.

- 9 of the last 10 winners were officially rated at least 116

- The biggest price winner in the last 10 years was 8/1

Again, unsurprisingly the three horses left are Henrythenavigator, Ravens Pass and Falco.

But....

the other horse in the top four of the betting, Twice Over, could also be added to this shortlist.
Of the last 14 runnings,the only horse not to have competed in any of the Guineas and come on to win this race was Dr Fong.

Twice Over has a very similar profile to this 1998 winner in that Dr Fong was unbeaten as a 2yo (2 from 2), he was trained by Henry Cecil and he too was thought of as a Derby fancy until beaten in the Dante.

So four horses left and the front four in the betting, but which one will win?

Aiden O'Brien's record in the race is second to none (won 4 of the last 8 renewals) and he is the only trainer to have done the Newmarket Guineas and the St James Palace double since 1981 (with Rock of Gibraltar). Henrythenavigator's form in both Guineas couldn't have been franked any better by New Approach and he will surely take all the beating.

The French Guineas form has generally been the weakest of all the Guineas and I feel Falco may struggle to win this race.

Twice Over's beating of Ravens Pass in the Craven stamped him as an above average miler and the subsequent decision to bypass the Guineas spectacularly backfired when he was well beaten in the Dante. The form of the Dante though was given a big boost by the winner, Tartan Bearer, in the Derby.

I won't be rushing to take the odds-on price available for Henrythenavigator and suggest at the current odds, Twice Over is the value bet to confirm superiority over Ravens Pass and prove his Dante run all wrong.

Selection: Twice Over
Danger: Henrythenavigator

p.s. Six days left to get TFS before the window closes forever. Click here for your copy.

Royal Ascot Trends: Queen Anne Stakes

The first race of the Royal Ascot meeting and raised to Group 1 status in 2003, the Queen Anne run over the straight mile has some very strong recent trends,

- No filly has won this race in 50 years of trying, so the two ladies seem up against it.

- Last 23 winners were either 4 or 5 years old. So the two equine OAPs bite the dust.

- The last 6 winners had all scored at Group 1 level. Three of the runners remaining haven't managed it yet.

- 9 of the last 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting and since 1980 only 4 horses have won at odds of over 10/1. Bye Bye to Mount Nelson.

- Only 1 overseas winner since the mid 1970's. Au revoir Sageburg

This leaves Haradasun as the only horse left to fit all the major trends. Another strong plus for this horse is the very good record of horses beaten in the Lockinge (3 of the last 6 winners). Let's hope for an improved show from this very talented beast.

One more 'trend' worth noting is Sir Michael Stoutes record in this race. From 9 runners he has only had 1 of them finish outside the top 4. Even more amazing is the fact that 8 of these had started at bigger odds than 11/2. Linngari is an interesting runner.

Selection: Haradasun
Danger: Linngari

Gavin.

p.s. Six days left to get TFS before the window closes forever. Click here for your copy.

Royal Ascot Trends: Coventry & Windsor Castle

The Day One juvenile events are always well contested, dear reader, and 2008 will be no exception, with loads of winning debutantes pitching against each other.

However, with the usual assistance of draw and historical data, we can try to dig beneath the surface of insoluble form, and get to the nub of the winning horse profiles.

Enough of this introductory bluster, and on with the piece!

First up is the Coventry Stakes, over 6f on Tuesday at 4.20. It's for the boys and the trends are quite instructive. Here's what I learnt:

- All of the last ten winners had won on their previous start. This quickly scratches four of the eighteen runners.

- All ten had either won over six furlongs (the Coventry distance) OR were trained by Aidan O'Brien. Three more fail on this count, leaving eleven

- All won a Class 4 or better race OR an Irish EBF race last time out. One unlucky nag gets his horse blanket and heads for the exit.

- 9/10 had run just once or twice. Cheerio to Shampagne. Half the field still standing.

- A really interesting stat is that 8/10 won last time out by 2 lengths or more, and 10/10 won by 3/4 of a length or more. Applying the 8/10 stat reduces the nine to just four.

The four on the shortlist then are:

Lord Shanakill
Orizaba
Shaweel
Versaki

On form, and visual inspection, preposterously facile Newbury winner Orizaba will take some stopping. He's also clear on Timeform ratings.

Allied to these positives is the fact that 9 of the last 10 winners of the race had been 8/1 or shorter in the betting. Orizaba is the only one of the four shortlisted to pretty much be guaranteed to be in the right price bracket.

However, one possible fly in the Orizaba ointment is that he has drawn stall one. In the four runnings of the Coventry in the past decade where there were 18 runners or more, three of them have been won by a very high drawn horse.

An honourable mention for Peter Tchaikovsky who fits the profile of an O'Brien winner, aside from his last time out winning margin. On breeding, he probably did very well to overcome the short five furlong trip that day, and will be better suited by a mile plus in time. He might be good enough to buck the winning distance trend.

Selection: Orizaba
Danger: Peter Tchaikovsky

A quick trip south from Coventry to Windsor Castle, and a drop back in distance to five eighths of a mile for a Listed contest.

The profile of a Windsor Castle winner is not quite so robust as its more illustrious juvenile colleague, the Coventry, but there are still some pretty promising lines. A whacking 26 go to post, so let's take a look:

- 8/10 winners had already won a race (six of these eight won by 2 1/2 lengths or more). Ten down directly.

- 8/10 finished 1st or 2nd last time out. Four of these did not and are struck off our register.

- 9/10 last ran between nine and 28 days ago. Another couple with cobwebs depart.

- 8/10 had two previous runs (10/10 had 1-3 previous runs). We'll erase those not having their third start, of which there are four. Six left.

- Of the eight times when the race has been contested by 14 or more horses (which excludes the ten runner affair at York when the track here was being renovated), six of them have gone to a horse drawn in double digits.

This leaves us with a trio of candidates: Dabbers Chief, Effort and Light The Fire.

The last named is trained by Bryan Meehan, who won this race in 2000 with Autumnal, and has a fine chance this time.

The winning debutante Bushranger rates a danger, though there could be many!

Selection: Light The Fire
Danger: Bushranger

Plenty more of these previews to come, so stay tuned over the next couple of days!

Matt