The Laying System Selections As Promised...

Ok, so here goes... A new system which we will track here for a fortnight. Now, before I crack on with today's selections, a few words about the parameters for this system.

Selections only qualify for laying if their SP is between 3/1 and 15/2 AND their Betfair price is between 4.4 and 10.4.

Compared with the other systems reviewed on these pages previously, the horses we're taking on here are clearly a little longer priced and, as a result, you will need a degree more fortitude and discipline for this if, as could happen, we start with a winner (Heaven forbid!).

So, to the chase... Today's selections, subject to meeting the above price criteria, are:

*Newc 17.00 – Kunte Kinteh*

*Yarm 15.40 – Celtic Memories*
*Yarm 15.40 – Rotation*
Yarm 15.40 – Three No Trumps
Yarm 16.40 – Lady Romanov

*Warw 15.50 – Squiffy*
*Warw 16.20 – Feeling Wonderful*
*Warw 16.50 – Snake Hips*
Warw 16.50 – English Archer
Warw 16.50 – Hopeful Isabella
Warw 17.20 – Bournonville

(Horses noted with a * are currently within the price criteria)

We will lay each qualifiying horse to win our usual notional £20.

Let battle commence!

Matt

3 From 4 Beaten: Bank Vault Report Strikes Again

A two part post today, dear reader. In this post, we'll review yesterday's action before posting today's thoughts and, of course, the Bank Vault Report selections, later.

Yesterday, our first selection, Birkside, was a non-runner, meaning that the first horse we laid was Thinking Positive. He was always well held in second, and never looked like winning.

So, again, the first horse in the sequence was beaten, meaning we now have a profit of £60 on the week, with a maximum liability of £27 (for yesterday's 2.7 favourite).

I sincerely hope that we will have the first horse win once this week, so that I can illustrate the progressive nature of the staking plan!

Incidentally, in terms of confidence factors, two of the other three horses were also beaten, meaning that this week we've got eleven out of fifteen lays correct to date. As I mentioned previously, this gives me a little more comfort that if the first horse does actually win, one (or more) of the animals we've loaded up behind it, will get turned over.

Today's selections will follow later.

As for my backing choices yesterday, well it was a mixed bag. Flying Bantam won nicely, as suggested, at 9/2, which was generous in my opinion. From the highest draw, he was always handy and charged through a split a furlong out. The first four home were drawn 14, 13, 11 and 10 out of 14 runners (and the horse drawn 12 was a non-runner!). The forecast paid £103.02 and the tricast over £500!

Unfortunately for me, I decided to adopt the 'perm high numbers' strategy on the 5 furlong sprint rather than the 7 furlong contest. Bugger! Confoundingly, the winner of this contest was drawn in trap 1!

Trap 1 also won the five furlong race here at the last meeting, and I am certain that the ground staff have done something to the drainage on that part of the track. (The only part the five furlong stretch shares with the other distances is the last furlong and a half or so). The only consistent observation from the two sprint races is that middle draws were clearly unfavoured. The last three home were drawn 7,8,9 of 15.

For now then, we will definitely be avoiding draw biases on the 5f course.

So Beverley yesterday was a case of 'great call, wrong race'!

Onwards and downwards... More later, including today's Bank Vault Report lays, and maybe some more of my own crackpot racing theories. M

Blimey - 5 out of 6 Rolled Over! Day Three Selections

A warm Wednesday welcome dear reader, for it is the middle of the week. :)

Yesterday, the Bank Vault Report managed to get a whopping five out of six lay selections beaten! Alas, we're only supposed to nominate five horses, so we'll exclude the last one and just claim four out of five. ;)

Importantly, from a progression perspective, the first horse yesterday, La Guancha, was a loser, which means - for the second day - there was no staking increment required to cover previous losses on the day.

So after Day Two, we are showing £40 profit and a maximum liability of £27 (what we'd have lost if La Guancha had won, it being a bigger price than the previous day's first selection).

Today's choices are:

15.00 Brig BIRKSIDE @2.0

16.10 Nott THINKING POSITIVE @2.2

16.50 Bev TRIVIA @2.7

19.20 Kemp DOUBLE BILL @2.7

21.00 Leop WESTLAKE @2.3


On the backing front, I managed to get Amanda Carter beaten at Redcar, but my e/w shout High Five Society could only manage 5th at 20/1. Interestingly, the winner (Sir Duke) was having his first handicap run after the obligatory three maiden efforts. These types are always worth noting, as they pop up pretty frequently. The Duke was a tidy 12/1. In fairness, though, I've rarely seen a poorer race.

Up at Chester, and the draw continues to confound me. Trap 8 won the sprint, meaning my box one and two theory went west again.

However, I did call H Harrison's race to the letter, with the horse sitting in behind the speed and quickening in the last furlong to win all out. 7/2 was a surprisingly fat return too.

Today there is racing at Beverley, and one of the strongest draw biases in the country will again be on parade. High numbers are paramount at this track, almost regardless of the distance of the race.

In the 2.50 Flying Bantam has a lot going for him from cage 14 (of 14), and will be tough to beat.

For a fun bet, in the 4.20 (a 5 furlong fillies' handicap - not normally my idea of fun!), I will perm the top four stalls (14-17) in combination exactas and straight forecasts (half stake on each). That's Minimum Fuss (16/1), Violet's Pride (16/1), Muara (6/1) and Princess Cleo (7/1).

Will be nice if it comes off! Small stakes fun wager only though, for sure.

That's all for now.
Matt

A Great Start: Day 2 Bank Vault Report Lays Attached.

Good morning to you, dear reader, and welcome to Day 2 of the Bank Vault Report review.

If you remember from yesterday, we are aiming to win a target £20 per day, using a progressive staking system with horses that are selected by the secret method in the Bank Vault Report.

Yesterday, the first horse lost, which means that we won our £20 with a maximum liability of £23 (the horse, Toi Express, was quoted at 2.3 - the price available at 8 am yesterday - and we'll use the prices quoted in the example for the purposes of the review).

Incidentally, an interesting point to track is how many of the selections get beaten. Although of course we only need one to lose to make our money on the day, it is heartening to see more horses beaten as this gives me more confidence that the role of luck will be only peripheral in the selection process.

Today's selections are as follows:

15.00 Redc LA GUARDIA @2.7

15.55 Sals CAPE VELVET @2.5

15.45 Sals APPLEBY @2.4

16.00 Redc HENRY BERNSTEIN @2.7

18.45 Chest BRASSINI @2.6

21.00 Worc CORNELIUS @2.2

From a backing perspective, again my desire to get the short priced ones beaten has surfaced, and I'm looking to oppose Amanda Carter in the 5.30 at Redcar. She's odds on in a handicap and, although she won well enough last time, there is always value in opposing odds on in handicaps, even if just trying to find a placed horse for an each way tickle.

So let's go each way tickling... it is fair to say that this is a poor race, so small stakes only. But I like the profile of High Five Society. Bred for this kind of trip, and having been contesting slightly better races recently, Paul Eddery's mount might be the type to hit the board at around 16/1. Disappointly for punters here, there are only 15 runners, so no fourth place payout.

Elsewhere, and they race at Chester tonight. Everyone knows about the low draw bias on the Roodeye in sprints, and yet there's still value to be had there. Let's side with the nags berthed one and two, Kings College Boy and Foxy Music respectively.

In the 7.45, over seven furlongs, H Harrison looks to have a great chance. He's likely to be held up just behind what should be a strong gallop and, if the slowing traffic ahead can be negotiated, he may very well win again. 11/4 to looks pretty fair value to me.

Good luck today, more from me tomorrow.
Matt

Once Too Often To The Well...

After five losing lays, yesterday the spell was broken in no uncertain fashion by Munsef, a horse who I was quite unkind about.

In fairness, his overall record is patchy at best. But yesterday he was way too good for his opposition.

Today though we will try again, and I actually fancy two to get rolled over.

The first runs at Bath in the first race, and is called Midnight Fling. Roger Charlton, the filly's trainer, is a brilliant handler, but is currently 0 from 3 with his 2yo's, and this one - who was his first juvenile runner on debut - is almost certainly not one of the yard's leading players.

Allied to that, and the main reason I'm happy to oppose her is that she is drawn in stall 14. Sprint races favour the rails runner strongly, and she will have to travel at least five or six lengths further than those berthed in boxes one to five.

Both Aide Memoire and Star in the East have advantageous draws, and I'd be surprised if something didn't get the better of Midnight Fling.

For my second lay, I will go North to Perth (the northernmost racecourse in UK no less), and I will take on a pair of racing personalities who I cannot abide.

Nicky Richards seems to me to be an arrogant man, and not a shadow of his illustrious father, in terms of either ability or comportment. And quite why Rose Davidson still gets to ride his better horses is a frustration to me from a betting perspective (she cost TrainerTrackStats followers plenty last season).

So I'm happy to lay Middleton Dene on those personal aspects alone. Add in the fact that that the horse has never won outside of a low grade bumper, and takes on a dual winner and a couple of other potential improvers, and I will take my chances.

From tomorrow, we'll be tracking the performance of the Bank Vault Report in these messages, so there'll be less of my personal lay opinions on these pages.

I'll also bring you a lucrative little flat racing system at some stage during the week, so look out for that too.

For now though, enjoy your Sunday, and may it be restful and, if you're having a bet, profitable.

Matt

Dog Races

Yesterday's even money loser brought the week to five from five on the losers front, and I'm starting to receive fan mail! (I'm certain that won't last!!)

More interesting is that people are writing to me telling me about how they're loving Racing Secrets [Exposed]. Comments such as, "Another 4 losers today (3 unplaced Mr. Aviator 2nd by 3/4 l). All between 6.2 & 7.2 but it was obvious they were going to lose, like a Championship team taking on 3 Premiership teams."

In my final plug for this excellent product, I highly recommend you check it out here:

http://tinyurl.com/377z6p



Lots of racing today, but very little class.

I think the theme of the afternoon is summed up by the 2.50 at Goodwood. A ten grand race between just four professional losers. If ever a Saturday epitomised the calm before the storm that is Royal Ascot, this is it.

I'll take on Munsef in this race, not because he is the poorest horse in the race, nor because he can't win. Just because he is a dog. Granted, he's running against three other dogs, and may outbark them. But at 9/10 on betfair, this is a low risk lay, and one where I'm prepared to be wrong at the odds. Let's put it this way: I wouldn't have Munsef as a placepot banker with your money...

Also, given that yesterday's evens loser makes it five from five for the week, and the bank is growing, I'm getting greedy!

I don't really fancy much today on the backing front, and instead I shall be barbecuing in Bournemouth, with my good mate Dan, who will be 35 tomorrow. Happy Birthday, you old ba5tard! (He's actually younger than me, but we won't let that get in the way of some good old fashioned age-related banter!)

If you do want one to follow, then Ordnance Row ran an excellent race when third from an impossible draw at Epsom last Friday. He also raced the next day, and was outpointed (possibly knackered?) in the Group 3 won by Blythe Knight.

He should run very well at around 5/1 with betfair.

Good luck with your weekend wagering. No promise of a post tomorrow, as I may not have access to an internet connection. But if I can bring you a lay selection, I will.

Pip Pip!
Matt

We're On A Roll... Losing Lays Galore!

Happy Friday, dear reader. Especially so if you've been following the lay advice in this column over the last few days. Two more losers yesterday made it four from four for the week.

Better still, they were both odds on, at 8/11 and 4/7. Which means not too much risk on the liability side.

I use a couple of key criteria to find my lays, both of which are in the excellent (I'm beginning to like it more and more as time passes!) Racing Secrets [Exposed] guide that I reviewed here a couple of weeks ago.

You can read the review (if you haven't already) here.

Regular readers will know that I was planning to start tracking another lay product, called the Bank Vault Report, today. Unfortunately, I don't have time to set that up today, but will certainly be ready to share it with you on Monday.

Today's action looks good. One of my alternative Ten To Follow lines up at Brighton. The horse is called Crossing The Line and is trained by one Sir Mark Prescott. Three runs over six furlongs last year, and here he is running over a mile and a quarter. Its a classic Prescott setup, and I'm expecting him to finish better than 8th for the first time in his career.

(You can read the full ten to follow piece on April 5th's blog entry, or type in 'ten to follow' on the search page at www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk

On the laying front, there are a few that look worthy of opposition, and I'll mention just one here.

I'm going to oppose Speedy Senorita in the opener at Catterick. She has finished second on both her starts, and is trained by the in form Karl Burke with the excellent Frannie Norton doing the driving.

However, the form of her two runner up placings is moderate at best, and the Portman filly, Pretty Bonnie, arguably achieved more in her sole start to date. I do have a nagging doubt about this daughter of Kyllachy handling the very fast ground, and there is no such reservation about the Speedy Senorita, whose debut was here on firm turf.

Style Award was only beaten half a length by Burke's filly when both were making their debuts here, and this young lady has arguably the more progression, given that she has only had the one run, to SS's two runs.

I think Speedy Senorita can win this race, but I also believe that there are at least two with experience who can also win it. And that's even before you consider the debutantes, some of whom are from good stables. At around even money, she is one to be against for me.

Best of Luck to you, and I'll be back later with some Friday Fun...

Tuesday's Lays

Back to work for most today, and an early post from yours truly due to an unexpected bout of insomnia. Nasty business: my sympathies to those who suffer with this regularly.

Anyway, enough of my woe and on with the show!

Yesterday I nominated Lacework who alas won at 5/4. She looked beaten but rallied well to get up in the last 50 yards.

The other pick was Medieval Maiden, who was (rightly) poohpoohed in this column yesterday. Sent off the 3/1 favourite, she finished last of 13.

For his part, Kris, the author of Racing Secrets Exposed, wanted to row in with Medieval Maiden yesterday, but felt the price was too big. So he instead sided with Karlani, who was beaten at 7/4. He is now 3 from 5.

Story so far:

Date	Course	Horse	Odds	Result	P/L to £20	P/L
23-May	Sedgefield	Cannon Fire	1.5	2	£20	£20
23-May	Ayr	Fitzroy Crossing	0.8	7	£20	£40
24-May	Goodwood	Bicoastal	2.5	5	£20	£60
24-May	Southwell	Gold Flame	1.25	1	-£25	£35
25-May	Stratford	Ingratitude	0.91	2	£20	£55
25-May	Pontefract	Grand Fleet	0.91	3	£20	£75
26-May	Newmarket	Right To Play	2	1	-£40	£35
26-May	Stratford	Helvetio	3.5	9	£20	£55
27-May	Newmarket	Transcend	0.91	1	-£18	£37
28-May	Redcar	Lacework	1.25	1	-£25	£12
28-May	Leicester	Medieval Maiden	3	13	£20	£32
29-May	Chepstow	Penang Cinta
29-May	Redcar	Monteboli

As you can see, today I go for the slow 2yo Monteboli (who is a very likely improver, but will have to be, and I think is underpriced), and Penang Cinta (who has been in excellent form lately but is on a career high mark now, has never run on ground this soft, has something to find on the clock, and faces stronger opposition - not a 2/1 shot in my book).

You can find out more about RSE at

http://tinyurl.com/377z6p

A quick word of congratulations to Derby and their fans. I must admit that, due to a pathological hatred of Billy Davies (I hope he's not reading this!), I wanted the boom boom Baggies to win. However, Derby will take their chance in the big league next season and - despite obvious predictions that they'll call in the parachute payments this time next year - it pays to give promoted sides a second look. More on that in due course... (I'll say this though, they need to become infinitely better at defending set pieces or will concede wantonly next year!)

Only four more days to the weekend!

Matt

Monday Lays

Again, no real standouts today. However, I think that Lacework (Redcar 3.15) is underpriced in what might be competitive. Also, Medieval Maiden (Leicester 5.25) looks thoroughly opposable off topweight in this race. A filly carrying topweight against colts, having never won on the surface and in an apprentice race is not my idea of a solid betting proposition. For all that, the opposition is mostly poor, but I'd be surprised if there wasn't at least one to beat her.

Yesterday we had a non-runner and winner (at slight odds on, 10/11) bringing the running total to six from nine losers and a profit for £20's of £37.

On the soggy Wembley turf, Kiegan Parker finally remembered where the goal was, and with no little aplomb, scoring a belter from 25 yards, as Blackpool beat a disappointing Yeovil to record ten straight wins (a club record).

That meant that we landed the 10 point nap with Bristol Rovers (11/4) and the five point next best with Blackpool (9/4 generally, 5/2 in places). I'll be bring my view on the ante-post for the league in a month or so's time, and suffice it to say, I already have one team strongly in mind...

Thereafter, I'll be providing a football service for Saturday punters for a small premium. More on that in due course.

Happy (rainy) Monday.

Matt

Sunday's Lays: 75% Success Rate So Far

Today its tricky, as I can't find any obvious lay opportunities. (I try to only nominate opposable horses at shorter than 2/1 on the Racing Post forecast prices).

However, I will row in with these two:

Newmarket 4.25 Transcend
Fontwell 5.45 Rathcor

After a winner and a loser yesterday, the latest position is as follows:

Date	Course	Horse	Odds	Result	P/L to £20	P/L
23-May	Sedgefield	Cannon Fire	1.5	2	£20	£20
23-May	Ayr	Fitzroy Crossing	0.8	7	£20	£40
24-May	Goodwood	Bicoastal	2.5	5	£20	£60
24-May	Southwell	Gold Flame	1.25	1	-£25	£35
25-May	Stratford	Ingratitude	0.91	2	£20	£55
25-May	Pontefract	Grand Fleet	0.91	3	£20	£75
26-May	Newmarket	Right To Play	2	1	-£40	£35
26-May	Stratford	Helvetio	3.5	9	£20	£55
27-May	Newmarket	Transcend
27-May	Fontwell	Rathcor

As you can see, Helvetio drifted badly in the betting before tailing off and being pulled after just four flights! Right To Play did win, however. Despite me thinking there were plenty in the race to go by him, none of them did.

On the footy front, well done if you followed the strong 10 point nap on Bristol Rovers. Although I got out before yesterday's game for my stake, I still had a nice 2/1 free bet (11/4 into 4/6).

Today, Blackpool take on Yeovil and the five point next best was the Tangerines if you remember. So we may well be sitting pretty come 5pm. That said, I liked the look of Yeovil when they turned Forest over, and they will give Blackpool a lot to think about. If Kiegan Parker has another of his misfiring days then the West Country may well be celebrating another promotion.

My advice is to trade out for for stakes and profit at the current 1.64 on betfair (about 8/13) Having got in at 9/4 and 5/2, I'm happy to take my profits now on this one.

Until tomorrow...

Matt

Saturday's Lays: 5 out of 6 So Far

Another good day yesterday, with both my nominated lays beaten at odds on (both were 10/11).

In fact, Kris had also selected Grand Fleet to get turned over, so the score on the doors currently are:

Matt: 5 losers from 6 selections (one 5/4 winner)
Kris: 2 losers from 3 selections

Today, Kris is opposing Monaazalah in the 4.40 Haydock

My two to oppose are:
5.00 Newmarket Right To Play
8.05 Cartmel Helvetio

Best of luck!

Matt

Today's Lays / Progress Review

Following on from yesterday's post, a quick line to notify today's horses to oppose, and to give a progress update...

So far, from four horses chosed, I've had three losers (and therefore winners!), and one winner (and therefore loser) at 5/4.

Kris, the author of Racing Secrets Exposed, nominated Whitbarrow yesterday, which also won at 6/4. So he is one from two currently.

My two to lay today, based on the system outlined in the RSE are:

7.15 Ingratitude
7.30 Grand Fleet

Happy Friday to you.

Matt

Playing With Laying... A Beginners' Guide

Today I'd like to have a quick look at a relatively new concept in betting (for the average punter at least): laying.

If you've been living on Mars or somewhere and don't know what laying is, it is basically what your bookmaker does every time he takes your bet. Striking a bet is an agreement between to parties, where one party will pay out in ratio to the other party's wager.

An example will help: I think Shergar will win the 2.20 at Plumpton. His odds are 2/1. I stake £10 at 2/1, giving me the chance to win £20. The bookie who takes the bet has essentially wagered on all the other horses to win at odds of 1/2.

So there are two possible outcomes: 1) Shergar wins and the bookmaker pays me £20, or 2) Shergar doesn't win and I pay the bookmaker £10.

And that's it. Why am I telling you this? Well, again, Martians aside, most everyone reading this will have heard of the betting exchanges - and especially betfair.

(Incidentally, if you bet on horses or football and you don't have a betfair account, you are missing out on the best odds on pretty much every horse or team in every race or competition).

The point about betting exchanges is that you may have only ever used them to get the best odds on a given event. Nothing wrong with that - indeed its just good sense.

But every time you strike a bet there, someone else (maybe me, maybe another reader, maybe a bloke in Botswana or Bangalore) has 'played bookmaker' and layed the bet.

Now the first thing to say about laying a bet on betfair is, as you may have already cottoned on, that you will typically have to offer slightly better odds than the bookmaker.

This may seem unattractive at first glance, but its not, for one very good reason. A traditional bookmaker is obliged to take your bet, irrespective of which horse or team you want to bet, up to a certain financial limit. However, when we lay a bet on betfair, we are able to be hyper-selective about the horses or teams we lay.

In practice, this means that Ladbrokes for instance will take varying amounts of money on all horses in a race, and their 'book' will be massively skewed towards the favourites (i.e. they will have greater liabilities on the more favoured horses, and therefore a favourite winning will cost them much more than they take on a race).

But the betfair layer can choose any, all or no horses to lay in a given race. You look at a race, and think a favourite is solid. So you leave it well alone. In another race, you think the favourite can be beaten and is a false price. So you offer odds on the horse to others.

I've been sent a review copy of a new guide that's currently doing the rounds, called Racing Secrets Exposed. Its 80 pages long, and is packed with useful information around betting basics and how to optimise your experiences with the betting exchanges.

Its real value however lies in the approach the guide takes to identifying likely false favourites. It has a series of selection criteria (five primary elements) which are simple enough to check using www.racingpost.co.uk. The author recommends just finding one horse a day to lay, but of course thats up to you.

I asked Kris, the author, to give me a lay each day that I could share with you, so that you could see how it did. I also agreed that I'd only share the lays with you after they'd run, but you can rest assured that I receive the emails prior to the events.

Yesterday's lay was Court Emperor, which finished fourth at Huntingdon last night. His SP of 9/2 was bigger than usual odds, and indeed Kris had laid him at 3/1 earlier in the day.

Today's lay runs at Southwell tonight and is likely to go off at shorter than 2/1 (currently trading at 6/4 to 13/8).

Although I promised not to divulge these tips until after, I am trying the system out for myself and, after picking Cannon Fire (2nd 6/4) and Fitzroy Crossing (7th 4/5), I had a good day paper trading.

Today's lays using the system are:
3.10 Goodwood: Bicoastal
6.50 Southwell: Gold Flame

To find out more about the system, go to:

http://tinyurl.com/377z6p

The football playoffs are this weekend and, after watching the FA Cup and Champions' League finals in the last few days, I know that these matches are very tough to call.

For this reason, I have laid both my bets (on Bristol Rovers, 10 pts at 11/4, and Blackpool, 5 point at 5/2) off at 1.67 and 1.71 respectively. I still think that Rovers and Blackpool will win their matches, thus I have only taken my stake money and a small profit out.

If you followed the advice, I'd suggest you at least get out for your stakes, thus giving you a couple of nice free bets on the finals. Good luck!

Finally, I will be going to Sandown next Thursday 31st May for the Brigadier Stakes evening meeting. Due to a friend being unable to attend, I have a spare Premier Enclosure ticket (free!) that I'd be happy to give to any reader who might be planning to go. And don't worry, you won't have to hang around with me and my drinking / betting buddies...

If you want it, just email me at enquiries@trainerflatstats.com - if you don't hear back, the ticket's gone (and sorry).

Finally, finally, the revamp of nag3 (www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk) is coming along. I hope to have much of the initial content posted there over the course of the next week. Do please let me know what you think, and whether there's anything else you'd be interested in seeing.

Pip pip!
Matt