The Easiest Race In The World To Find The Winner?...

Well, I dearly hope some of you estimable readers took my advice on the Grand National and backed Silver Birch (amongst others).

I say it every year, and people really seem to have a problem understanding it. So let me repeat it again, with apologies for shouting:

THE GRAND NATIONAL IS A STATS RACE!!!!!!!!!

The only time in the last ten years when the stats have not found the winner was when Hedgehunter won. He was not a stats horse because he carried 11-01, with the cutoff being 11-00. On the basis of a pound and fitting all the other trends, I backed him anyway. I've actually backed the last SIX winners of the Grand National, and I'm terrible at picking handicap winners!

What I'm trying to tell you is don't be fobbed off by the people who say the race is a lottery. Its not. Period.

The stats for the Grand National are (mostly) so glaringly obvious that its easy to see why they're so effective.

I won't run through all of them here (check my post on 23rd February, where I gave you the winner, for all the details), but I'll just major on a few of them which cuts the field down to about ten very quickly (and that's the case pretty much every year).

1. Grand National is 4 and a half miles. Find a horse who has won over 3m+, preferably 3m2f. Obvious no?
2. Grand National has 40 runners. Find a horse that has won in a field of at least 12, preferably 15. Obvious?
3. Grand National has horribly big fences. Find an experienced jumper (more than two seasons over fences), preferably who has completed (and ideally won) over the Grand National fences. Obvious huh?
4. Grand National is the most testing marathon race in the calendar. Find a horse in the handicap proper (and therefore talented enough to win), but not lugging more than 11-00 (and therefore weighted down).

How many horses yesterday do you think matched these stats?

Answer: three had won over the fences and fitted the other stats.

And they all completed the race yesterday. The winner Silver Birch was joined by Liberthine (5th) and Clan Royal (11th).

From my stats perspective, the latter two failed to qualify as they are French bred, and no such horse has EVER won the race. Many have tried.

In my blog, I made the following comments on the dates listed:

"20th March

Make a note of Gordon Elliot's Silver Birch, who finished a game
second in this race. His next scheduled engagement is in the Grand
National, and he fits all of my stats (which have found the winner
for the last ten years!), so is one on an increasingly shortlist for
the Aintree feature.

23rd February

Silver Birch - my big ante-post wager last year, before things went
inexplicably wrong. Has been nursed back to form by lesser known Irish trainer
and finished 2nd in a cross country race and 4th in a hurdle recently. Will go
to Cheltenham (Cross Country race) then Aintree."

Hindsight is a wonderful thing of course. But what I'm telling you is that you don't need hindsight to back next year's winner. If you simply use the stats, which are underpinned by clear logic, you have a very good chance of getting paid out, granted normal luck in running.

Incidentally, and sorry to gloat, but I had average odds of 9o/1 on the winner, having backed it in February when I wrote about it here. And I had a good drink last night. :o)

Best Regards
Matt

Alternative PinStickers Guide To The Grand National...

At this time of year, we get utterly swamped with 'Grand National Previews', and this will be another one. To break from the usual monotony though, I'm proposing a slightly different tack.

Rather than pin sticking, I will tell you why each of the horses can't win. This is actually a particularly savvy tactic, as it virtually guarantees me being 97.5% right. (i.e. there will only be one winner out of forty starters!)

So, here we go, from the top to the bottom. Find your fancy and see why it can't win tomorrow!!

*** = I'm on (and at this price)...

HEDGEHUNTER: Too much weight. Will likely complete, but won't win. Place possibilities.
EUROTREK: Too much weight. Fragile horse who could go wrong (I hope he won't). Likes the fences and unlikely to fall.
L'AMI: Too much weight. French bred has never won the race. Ever. Many have tried.
MONKERHOSTIN: Too much weight. Probably won't stay. Not quite as good as he was this season.
THISTHATANDTOTHER: Too much weight. Slower than a particularly slow boat. On the downgrade.
BILLYVODDAN: Too much weight. Inexperienced. A likely casualty.
NUMBERSIXVALVERDE: Too much weight. No repeat winner since Red Rum.
IDLE TALK: Can't jump, won't jump. Oh, and too much weight.
ROYAL AUCLAIR: Too much weight. Probably on the downgrade. Will probably get round. Place possibilities.
***CLOUDY BAYS (317/1): Dodgy jumper (fell in a hurdle race last time!), but good form. Outsider with a chance IF he stands up. Big if.
KNOWHERE: Novice. Shouldn't be running in the race in my opinion.
KELAMI: French bred never won. Doubtful stayer. Classy enough.
***POINT BARROW (16.5/1): No reason why he won't win, except that he isn't good enough on the day. My idea of the winner...
CELTIC SON: French breds don't win the National. One start this season and he failed to complete. Tomorrow will be two starts and two failed to complete.
SIMON: On the upgrade, but a second season chaser and probably still too inexperienced.
BALLYCASSIDY: Dodgy jumper, on the downgrade.
CLAN ROYAL: French bred, so won't win. Had his chances in previous years. Even McCoy doesn't want to ride him this time. (A mistake in my opinion, as he still looks the pick of the McManus runners)
GALLANT APPROACH: Ground against him and he's probably not good enough.
LIVINGSTONEBRAMBLE: Non-stayer. Not good enough.
***DUN DOIRE (15/1): Ground too quick. Every chance, aside from that.
KANDJAR D'ALLIER: Frenchie can't win.
SLIM PICKINGS: Second season chasers don't win the National
ZABENZ: Ditto
BEWLEYS BERRY: Ditto
***LONGSHANKS (33/1): Ground quick enough, but every chance. Has jumped round and I reckon he might well win it. Cracking value.
BOTHAR NA: Just not good enough.
***GRAPHIC APPROACH (279/1): Probably not good enough. Makes a lot of mistakes so he may well not get round. No idea why I backed him!
HOMER WELLS: Second season chasers don't win the National, and he's probably not good enough anyway.
LIBERTHINE: Not a race for 'Les Grenouilles' but he has jumped round the fences before.
***SILVER BIRCH (90/1): Not won for two and a half years and the ground on the quick side, but he comes here with a chance!
PHILSON RUN: Not good enough probably, and the turf will be fast enough.
***PUNTAL (not on yet, currently trading at 150 on betfair): Sixth last year after over a year off, and has a squeak. Can't find a reason not to back him, so I will be backing him tomorrow!
THE OUTLIER: Ground too fast. Will be scared sh**less by the number of rivals in this race. (Never won with more than ten in the field).
TIKRAM: Non-stayer will be pulled up.
McKELVEY: Not good enough. Might get round.
***NAUNTON BROOK (120/1): Bang out of form and probably not good enough. But will appreciate the faster ground, and could surprise a few people. (Still I don't expect to collect on this ticket!)
JACK HIGH: Was a 9/1 shot last year, and not without a chance this time. Might be too far back to mount a winning run (most winners are up near the pace throughout), and unseated last year.
SONEVAFUSHI: Should have run in the Hunter Chase. Not good enough for this.
JOE'S EDGE: Landed a touch for readers of this column at Cheltenham (50/1!). Scottish National winner who likes to hear his hooves rattle. In good form, and a sound jumper. The one I'm not on that I'm most worried about. You'll hear me cursing from your front room if this one wins!
LE DUC: Dodgy jumper, non-stayer. Say no more.

So there it is. I've told you why they can't win and I'll be more right than wrong. However, I'm pretty confident that one of the starred horses will collect. I've had a good deal more winners than not over the past ten years and, bizarrely (foolishly?!), I am reasonably confident about my chances tomorrow.

Longshanks is probably the best value bet in the race, in my opinion.

Good luck, whichever horse(s) you've selected, and lets hope the beasts and all the pilots get back for a glass of their favoured at the end of the day.

Matt

Grand National Thoughts...

Now that the weights have been published, it seems a very
good time to review the Aintree Grand National picture from
a stats angle. To recap, these are the reasons it is a good
stats race:

- No other race has so many horses lining up
- No other race is run over such an extreme distance
- No other race has the Aintree fences (with the exception
of races at the track of course)
- No other race offers such much prize money and kudos
(attracting some very classy horses)
- No other race is guaranteed to be run at a frantic pace
from the outset
- No French race is run over anything like this distance
(French breds don't stay the trip!)

The stats angle for the race says to follow the logic.
This means that we're looking for:

- a proven stayer (won over 3m+);
- a reliable jumper (less than two falls in the last
two seasons), and at least into his third season jumping;
- a horse that has won in a field of at least 12;
- a horse mature enough to win the race, but not past his
best (aged 8-12);
- a horse in the handicap proper, but carrying 11stone or
less (i.e. scheduled to carry 10-00 to 11-00);
- a horse with proven class (placed in a Grade 3 chase or
better);
- a horse who was not bred in France (some have run close,
none have won...);and,
- Pay special attention to the Irish (especially if they've
been hurdling!); and,
- Favour horses who have jumped the Aintree fences

This makes the 119 entries truncate to a rather more manageable
twelve (I previously quoted eight horses, due to some confusion
on my part about French bred horses. If a horse has only one
French parent, then it is not classed as a French bred, hence
some horses have been reinstated). Seven of the eight I previously
mentioned remain (Numbersixvalverde has to carry 11-03 and is
discounted on this basis):

Point Barrow - Irish National winner off top weight

Graphic Approach - Run some eye catching races for his shrewd trainer
who went close with Mely Moss

Naunton Brook - Sound form, safe jumper, trainer won with Earth Summit.
Ran very poorly however in Red Sq Gold Cup on 17th Feb.

Cloudy Bays - Excellent form in Ireland (bags of class), has been running
in hurdles, and a very interesting dark one should he run.

Dun Doire - Cheltenham Festival winner for very shrewd trainer, hampered
when unseated last year, been running in hurdles races since Grand National '06

Garvivonnian - An old friend of mine, races prominently and jumps well,
so will give a run for money. Doubtful stayer though, alas.

Silver Birch - my big ante-post wager last year, before things went
inexplicably wrong. Has been nursed back to form by lesser known Irish trainer
and finished 2nd in a cross country race and 4th in a hurdle recently. Will go
to Cheltenham (Cross Country race) then Aintree.

To these we now add:

Little Brick: Much hyped recruit, who won well at Wincanton last weekend.
To my eye, he looked a very good jumper but a doubtful stayer.

Longshanks: No real negatives, and from a stable who has won the race before.
Has jumped the Aintree fences twice before in shorter races.

Nil Desperandum: Moved to Venetia Williams this season, and has been backed
for the race.

Puntal: Ran an unbelievable race last year to finish 6th, after 400 days off
the track. He's a bit fitter this year, so could run very well.

Jack High: Former Betfred (aka Whitbread) Gold Cup winner, who was near the
top of ante-post lists last year.

So, this is my Dirty Dozen for the race. Some obvious contenders here, and
hopefully some interesting dark horses. I have a number of betfair wagers
in the triple digit odds, so let's hope one of them obliges!

Which horses stand out for you, and why?