Top Scorer Preview, League One Preview and Paul's Winning Racing Tips

As promised, dear reader, here are my thoughts on a couple more of the major ante post football markets for this season. At the bottom of this post, you'll also find Winning Racing Tips' e/w selections for today.

Let's start with the Premier League Golden Boot market.

My tip for the top of the scoring charts is Tottenham's big summer signing from relegated Charlton, Darren Bent. This boy scored 13 goals last season playing in a woeful side that was relegated. He also scored 18 the year before in the same Charlton side (though it performed better as a team, it had nowhere near the class that Spurs currently boast).

With the service available to him at Spurs, I am expecting him to get closer to 20 goals, perhaps even beyond it.

Last season, Drogba won the race with 20, and he is injured for the start of the season, and away on African Nations Cup duty in January. He will likely miss eight to ten games (about a quarter of the total matches), so I think he is a terrible bet at a best priced 6/1.

So, if we take the favourite out of play, who are the contenders:

Wayne Rooney (14 goals last season, 12/1, expekt.com) is bound to be injured and suspended for some of the season, and isn't really the type of out and out striker who wins this prize. Man United will score a hatful this season, as they do pretty much every year, but they will also share them around.

Not for me Roonaldo.

Cristiano Ronaldo (17 goals, 16/1, expekt.com) is a joy to watch. Despite the vitriol aimed at him last season after the World Cup affair, he was far and away the best player in the league last year.

Seventeen goals from midfield is an awesome return, and I reckon he'll outscore Rooney again this year, while still coming up short in the overall totals race.

Benni McCarthy (18 goals, 21/1, expekt.com) is a player I admire too. He plays in a much under-rated team at Blackburn, and I'm very impressed that they've signed Roque Santa Cruz from Bayern Munchen for what could turn out to be a bargain price.

The problem for Benni this season is that, even with the majestic service he'll get from MGP (Morten Gamst Pedersen, if you will), he is likely to have to share the goals with Roque and others.

RVP (Robin van Persie, 11 goals, 14/1, Bet365, Stan James, Ladbrokes) looks in awesome shape in pre-season, and is an exceptional talent. For me, Arsenal are the most creative side in the League, and they just might have solved their striking problems with Da Silva. Expect RVP to weigh in with double digit strikes, but fall short of the places.

Eduardo Da Silva (25/1 Boyle, Paddy Power, Sporting Odds, Ladbrokes) could be a great signing for Arsenal. I reckon he's overpriced, as he is surely the only player the Gunners have who can sit on the shoulder of the last man, and put them away regularly. Whether Monsieur Wenger agrees with me remains to be seen. At the price, I'd be tempted to have a little each way. He may well be in the top four scorers, and could come out on top.

Forget Shevchenko (just 9/1 in a place, 18/1 with Coral) as he won't get too many games, even with Drogba injured or absent.

Forget Fernando Torres (16/1 generally), a great player, but one who spends too much time on his backside moaning at referees, and who will be rotated in a side that doesn't score too many goals.

I love Dimi Berbatov, who was the best newcomer last season by a distance. His nonchalance and casual demeanour masks an exceptional talent. However, he likes to sit just off the striker position, and I think will score less goals this season than last year's dirty dozen.

I expect Jol to make B&B (that's Berbi and Bent) his first choice partnership, and the latter's five goals in pre-season shows that the pairing is ripe.

Berbi clearly likes playing with Bent, as he offers much more mobility and all round game than Defoe (who is probably a more natural finisher), and he offers more directness than the infuriating Robbie Keane (who has a touch of class, but too often finds little off the bridle, in racing parlance).


At 25/1 with Expekt.com, I think he's the pick of the prices. I've backed him already and, if Jol starts the season with him (not insignificant 'if', as my Spurs mates tell me that Jol loves Keano), then I can see Bent being undroppable, and scoring a load of goals in an exciting team to watch. (They've got bags of pace and width, maybe still a question mark about the holding midfield position though).

A couple of important points about the odds quoted with expekt.com: although you may never have heard of them, they are a major player in Europe and are aggressively seeking signups in UK.

They bet win only on the top scorer market, which means there's no place payout. Personally, on the top scorer charts, I think this is no bad thing, as an injury, suspension or dubious management decision could see a player have a long spell on the sidelines. In that instance, you'd do double your money.

If you've not got an account, but fancy taking the best price on one of the above, the good news is that expekt will match your first wager up to £25. That means, place a £25 bet and you'll get £25 credited to your account.

Place a £10 bet and get £10 credited to your account.

You can sign up HERE if you're tempted by those odds.


It's Bent for me, followed by Da Silva.

League One is often a touch section to find the winner in. Last season, 50/1 shots Scunthorpe cruised home, thanks to a great unit and the goals of Billy Sharp (now at Sheffield United).

This season, Nottingham Forest are clear market leaders. They were a little disappointing last season but have bolstered their already impressive squad with the key signing of Neil Lennon, and other notable purchases, Matt Lockwood and Aaron Davies.

Lennon is a no nonsense ball winner with a touch of class, especially at this level, and he could make the difference for them this year. Even at a best priced 4/1 (Sporting Odds), I reckon they must go close and would want them in my portfolio.

Beyond them, I wouldn't want Leeds even without the 15 point deduction. With it, they are no hopers to me, and they will have to get somewhere between 60 and 65 points just avoid relegation to League Two. How are the mighty fallen. (As a Bournemouth fan, you'll forgive me for scoffing at the decline of a once great club with once great fans. Apologies to any genuine Whites supporters reading this).

Swansea (11/1 Skybet) have been knocking on the door in recent seasons, but they've had too many chances already for me. Lee Trundle has Premier League trickery but a distinctly Sunday League work ethic. He's a joy to watch in highlight format though!

Doncaster, with former Cherries man Sean O'Driscoll at the helm, are top priced 11/1 (again with Sporting Odds), and have added ex-Cherries hitman, Jamie Hayter. Hayter once scored four away to Bury, and also scored the fastest ever hat-trick in Football League history against Wrexham (2mins and 20 seconds!).

He is a decent scorer but not a legendary predator by any means. In fact, he only scored ten for the Cherries last year, and was often deployed in a central midfield role.

Donny are a good workmanlike side with an honest and professional manager (though don't look at him for a soundbite, unless you're a big fan of footballing cliche's), but I doubt they're good enough to win this league.

Luton could be entertained at 16/1 (Skybet, Hills). Although relegated from the Championship last year, they have retained a lot of decent players, and they've brought in some impressive and proven names. Paul Peschisolido, Chris Perry, Darren Currie and Paul Furlong may all be closer to getting a bus pass than most players, but they've all been there, seen it and done it, and will bring bags of experience to a squad with some promising youth already on the books.

Further down the card, I like the look of Hartlepool and Bristol Rovers to 'double up' in the promotion stakes. It's been done by a number of teams recently, with Southend and Brighton winning the division after being promoted from League Two the previous year, and Hull and Rotherham both finishing 2nd after promotion. Four teams in the top two in the last six seasons.

So back Hartlepool (11/1 BlueSq, Coral) and Bristol Rovers (14/1 Bet365, Stan James) for promotion. Remember, if either side finishes in the top six and is not automatically promoted, you will have 11's or 14's about a team in the four horse race that is the playoffs. Given the track record of teams coming up, these are the best value bets in the section for me.

And my original (not!) selection to win League One is Nottingham Forest. Sorry.

Onto the horses, and the Winning Racing Tips selections today are opposing Naomh Gheileis with
3.10 Pontefract 0.6pt e/w Effingham (5/1 Sportingodds/StanJames)
3.10 Pontefract 0.4pt e/w Nickel Silver (8/1 Bet365/BetDirect)

Finally, further reminders in case you needed them (!) that you should be entering your Fantasy League team in at http://www.premierleague.com/

Use the signup button to the right of the Budweiser symbol. To join the Nag3 League, where there are prizes to be won (exact nature of these to be revealed over the coming days), enter the following code: 533724-97750

Also, you can still sign up for a 14 day trial of Laying System, by clicking here.

TTFN
Matt

The Abridged Premier League Betting Preview, Plus Some Hard Core League Two Action

Starting this week's series of footy previews, and I'm going to look at the Premier League and League Two.

Firstly, the winner of the Premier League this season will be Manchester United (best price 2.44 with betfair, 7/5 expekt.com). No ifs, no buts.

Chelsea (2.98 betfair, 15/8 Betdirect) have a horrendous injury list currently, and may drop points early on. Even if they don't, I'm expecting some fireworks in the Stamford Bridge camp when the likes of Ballack and Shevchenko aren't getting regular first team games.

Claudio Pizzaro looks a player to watch: I've always like him and I think his game is well suited to the Premiership but, with Drogba missing the start and away on African Nation’s Cup duty in January / February, I think Chelsea will struggle to score goals this season.

Liverpool (6.8 betfair, 6/1 Betfred) have bought a lot players and have an excellent squad. I still have a few reservations about their goalscoring abilities, but they'll likely be the tightest defence in the league (important if you're considering defenders for your Fantasy League team).

Arsenal (11.5 betfair, 11/1 Bet365) will be fantastic on the eye, but frustrating in front of goal, despite the addition of a predatory striker in Eduardo Da Silva (I reckon this boy get a bagful of goals this year).

But if there's one team who may break into the elite quartet this season, its free-spending Spurs.

I like Martin Jol as a manager, and I think he's mollycoddled the young boys at Spurs very well. This year he's going to expect them to grow into men, and he's getting rid of the troublemakers.

So, exit stage left Mido, Ghaly and - if he can find a buyer – Jermaine Jenas. Enter Darren Bent, super striker.

My tip for the top of the scoring charts is Tottenham's big summer signing from relegated Charlton. This boy scored 13 goals last season playing in a woeful side that was relegated.

With the service available to him at Spurs, I am expecting him to get closer to 20 goals.

He also looks very interesting at 13/2 (already been backed in from 8/1) to be top British and Irish striker with Skybet. Better still, if you use the skybet link on this page to sign up, you’ll get your wager matched up to £20 (if you’re not already a skybet customer).

My full top scorer thoughts will appear later in the week, but suffice it to say, Benty Boy is one of my two selections.

League Two

No such thing as a two, three or even four horse race in basement division, with any number of teams pitching for promotion. I’ve narrowed it down to four, who I think will fight it out come the business end of the season.

First up, unsurprisingly, is Peterborough (4/1 Betfred, Paddy Power). Managed by Sir Alex Ferguson’s son, Darren, and bankrolled by a wealthy Irishman, free spending Posh have a hell of a lot going for them.

It is normally a side with either money, or prudent use of the loans market, that wins this division. Posh have both. You can be sure that if Derby or Wolves or their ilk want to borrow a Manchester United player, they need to be happy to send a boy or two to London Road this season.

But what of their current squad?

In goal, they’ve got the reliable but not special Mark Tyler. He’s a Peterborough institution and needs just five more games to reach his 400^th appearance.

Defended by the likes of Adam Newton and Chris Westwood, Tyler shouldn’t feel too vulnerable but the missed catch of Steve Elliott from Bristol Rovers must smart, and I’d like to see them strengthening the back four.

Scoring goals however will not be a problem. Posh will be the top scoring team in the league this season, it’s just a question of how many they let in.

In Craig Mackail-Smith (CMS), they have what many people believe to be the best striker in the division. He’s a 16/1 shot to be top scorer and will miss the first couple of games, recovering from a pre-season injury. But I think he’s a decent bet to top the scoring charts.

Others who will be chasing double figure goal tallies on the Posh roster include Danny Crow and Aaron MacLean, but CMS should be first choice and should hit a bundle.

The midfield is the best in the division in my opinion, with proven League One players such as Dean Keates (from Walsall), Micah Hyde, and Gavin Strachan supported by exciting talents like Josh Lowe, Charlie Lee and George Boyd.

If it wasn’t for the potentially porous defence I wouldn’t be able to look past Peterborough. But to win consistently, you have to keep the oppo at bay, and I really feel this will be a struggle unless they invest in their defence.

Saying that, if they bring in a couple of decent proven defenders, they’ll be very very tough to beat.

Elsewhere, I like the prospects of Chesterfield, Darlington and – at any price you like – Dagenham.

Chesterfield (14/1 generally) were the best of the relegated teams last season, beating Bradford, Brentford and Rotherham, and I am confident they will do well this season.

The record of teams relegated from League One bouncing back is above average, and the Spireites have retained most of their squad from last year. They’ve bolstered the side with the signings of Jack Lester from Forest and my mate, SuperFletch (that’s Steve Fletcher to you) from Bournemouth. Lester is a class act on his day, and Fletcher – though slow as a boat and with a wider turning circle – will challenge as the best target man in the division. He rarely gets beaten to a header.

Darlington (14/1 generally) are my friend’s tip and he’s very strong on them. He’s backed them accordingly. The have a proven manager in Dave Penney, who worked the oracle out of this section with Doncaster previously, getting that side out of the Conference before winning League Two.

The side has oodles of experience, with the likes of Steve Foster, Andy Oakes and Pawel Abbot added to the squad, and my concern is that they will likely have too many new faces to effectively gel straight away. I expect Darlo to make big strides as the season progresses, but much will depend upon whether they can hit the ground running.

A good bet for Darlo then is to back them for promotion (3/1 widely available), where you will get three automatic spots, plus a run for your money (and an opportunity to trade out) if they finish in the top seven – and therefore make the playoffs. 3/1 about making the playoffs is more than fair…

Finally, my each way shout is Dagenham (33/1 Skybet and others). A fair few teams have come out of the Conference and been pretty competitive in this league, and the Daggers (my local team for three years) strolled home in that division last season.

They don’t have too many household names in the squad (but then, which League Two sides do?!), but in Paul Benson they have a striker who proved himself capable of filling the considerable void left by CMS’ departure to Peterborough.

I reckon that they are decent value for small stakes, and the top priced 9/1 offered by Skybet for promotion looks cracking value. Remember, if they finish in the top seven, you’ve either collected already via the automatic spots, or you’ve got 9/1 in the four horse playoff race, and can easily lay off for a profit or your stakes back.

I’ve put the skybet link on the page for a few reasons, as follows:

1. Its an account you’re less likely to have than say Ladbrokes
2. They go best price on many football wagers, and are clearly striving for market share in that sport
3. You get a free bet when you sign up, up to £20
4. I get something out of it when you sign up too ;-)
   

FFL

While we’re on the subject of footy, don’t forget the Fantasy League competition that I’m running through the official Premier League site. Its free to enter, and will be a lot of fun. If your team does well, you can expect a namecheck or two as the season progresses, and there will be prizes on offer as well.

Get your team registered here:

http://fantasy.premierleague.com/

(Look on the right side for the 'Sign Up' link).

The code for the league is 533724-97750.

See if you can work out who at least one of my strike force is... ;)
Matt

Payoffs in the Playoffs? (Part Two)

Hello again, dear reader, and welcome to the second part of my view of the divisional footy playoffs this year. Having gone strong on Bristol Rovers (especially to make the final) in League Two, I am now going to review the race for a place in the Championship.

The four sides with chances of escaping League One (for a season at least!) are Blackpool, Nottingham Forest, Yeovil and Oldham. They finished third to sixth respectively in the division, and now Blackpool will play their Northwestern rivals Oldham, and you can do the math on who's in the other tie.

Blackpool are unquestionably the form team here, having won all of their last seven games. Not only that, but they scored an amazing 21 goals in that time, averaging three a match.

Compare and contrast that with Oldham, who have managed only two wins in their last six, and only six goals scored.

I expect this to be as straightforward as it seems, with the Tangerine men from the land of trams and rollercoasters (and cheap beer and women, according to my fond memories!! "Ay'oop luv, fancy a ride on my big dipper?" - its the only place on the planet where that line has a chance even of not winding you up in casualty!) cruising past the Latics, probably winning both legs.

The semi-final between Yeovil and Notts Forest, which plays out its first leg tonight, is much closer, in my opinion. Forest are in good form currently, having won three and drawn two of their last six games. But, when you look at the teams they've faced - Crewe, Leyton, Bournemouth (an easy three points yielded by my boys), Brentford, Rotherham and Millwall - they should probably have done better.

Yeovil, allegedly big rivals of Bournemouth (not so I've noticed!), have won four from six, including their last three. When you look at the two teams to beat them recently, Scunthorpe and Bristol City, both of whom qualified automatically, you can argue that the Tractor Boys are in slightly better form.

Given the disparity in odds (Forest 2/1 and as low as 13/8 with Hills, Yeovil generally 4/1), I'd have to side with the value there.

However, ultimately, its irrelevant because I still fancy Blackpool to beat either of these sides.

They are playing some brilliant football at the moment, scoring for fun, and will love the wide open spaces that Wembley affords them. At a best priced 9/4 with Paddy Power, they're hardly cracking value (major money for them has seen them cut to 2's from 11/4 with a number of firms), but they do look cast iron to reach the final.

If they do make the final, you have a back to lay opportunity, and indeed this is the approach I suggest you take. They're likely to be around evens, and the same proposed strategy as with Bristol Rovers should see at least one of these two in the final. That being the case, it will be possible to lay the team that makes the final for any loss incurred on the other.

If that makes sense... (possibly not).

The biggest prize of all awaits the winners of the Championship playoffs and, not least for that season ticket to the Premiership, this is the hardest division to weigh up in my opinion.

The four teams up for the cup are: Derby, Southampton, Wolves and West Brom. The betting is wide open (almost 7/2 each of four!), and in truth you pays your money and you takes your pick.

Saints play Derby and the Brummies play each other in the semi-finals.

I just fancy Saints to nick their tie, with reformed (allegedly) alcoholic (allegedly) George Burley returning to one of his former (drinking) stamping grounds. There's no doubt he's a top drawer manager, just don't ask for a lift home after the game!

Seriously, Saints have some really talented players at this level, including another ex-Derby man in Grzegorz Rasiak. The Polish hitman has treated himself to no fewer than 22 goal bonuses in just 44 starts for the Southerners, and I reckon he'll be well up for getting another additional cheque against his previous employers.

In the other tie, well your guess is as good as mine (better, more than likely). I truly have no clue who will emerge victorious, between two evenly matched sides who will be playing for local honour as well as the top flight. Both teams are in OK form, both are scoring (and shipping) bags of goals.

Perhaps the percentage play is to bet over 2 goals in the first leg, where Stan James offer 5/4. Not enough to tempt me, but in a match where I can't find a fag paper to split them, I'm struggling to suggest anything other than 'NO BET!!!'

So that concludes the action for me:

Bristol Rovers to win League 2 Playoffs: 10 points win (lay prior to final if opportunity presents itself)

Blackpool to win League 1 Playoffs: 5 points win (lay prior to final if opportunity presents itself)

Saints to win Championship Playoffs: but no bet.

Good luck to you if your teams are involved this weekend, and I hope you get the result you need.

TFI Friday.

Matt

Payoffs in the Playoffs? (Part One)

With the regular League season (excepting Premiership) action complete, twelve teams will now fight it out for a spot each in the next division up. It is fiercely tricky trying to predict who will emerge victorious in this type of situation. Nevertheless, your humble scribe rarely backs away from such a challenge, especially when there’s the opportunity of having a wager…

So let’s get into it, starting with League Two today, where I think probably the best bet of all three divisional contests resides.

League Two

The quartet doing battle here are: MK Dons, Lincoln City, Bristol Rovers and Shrewsbury Town. These teams finished fourth to seventh respectively, and MK will face Shrewsbury with Brizzel Ravers taking on Lincoln in the semi-finals.

For much of the season, Lincoln’s Imps looked like they would gain one of the three automatic promotion spots up for grabs in the lowest league. But a weak finish to their season (won just once in their last six) means they are especially vulnerable against a rampant Rovers, who have – for their part – topped the form league with four wins and two draws.

Rovers have outscored their opposition by seven goals to two in the last six games, so it is solid defence rather than spectacular striking that has underpinned their current stellar form. Against that, Lincoln have scored only thrice and conceded one more.

So… don’t be expecting a goal glut, but I confidently envisage the blue half of Bristol making their (Wembley) way along the M4.

There they will face one of MK Dons or Shrewsbury. The Dons have arguably the best player in the division in Izale McLeod. He has scored 24 goals in a relatively few 39 games this term, having missed numerous matches for no less than three red cards.

What McLeod lacks in discipline, he makes up for in pace, power and an unmatched eye for goal at this level. The Shrews defence will struggle to keep him at bay and, even if they do, they’ll also have to counter the autumnal Clive Platt. Platt has scored 18 in the league and, alongside McLeod, their combined tally is a hugely impressive 39 league strikes.

For all their offensive prowess, Dons have been whacked on a number of occasions this season, including a 5-0 reverse at Rochdale. In the head-to-head with Shrews, Dons lost 2-1 a month ago in a very ill-tempered affair (MK had eight players booked and another one sent off – Spanish ref probably!). There were also six bookings in the reverse fixture, which MK won 2-0.

I don’t think there will be much in this tie, but the evidence points to no love lost between the sides, and a buy of cards in the first leg at Gay Meadow should yield a profit.

Overall, I reckon Milton Keynes will sneak a tight and strongly contested battle (‘battle’ being the operative word).

That leaves a final for my money between Bristol Rovers and MK Dons. Irrespective of whether they play the Dons or Lincoln, I am strong on the chances of Bristol Rovers going all the way.

They have an excellent team (at this level) and – to have needed such a strong finish to even reach the playoffs – have arguably underperformed this season.

Not a prodigiously free scoring outfit, it would again come as a surprise to me if they hit more than two in the final. Equally, they’ll need to be wary of the open spaces of Wembley, with Izale McLeod looking to exploit them in combination with his own turbo-boosted legwork.

Ultimately, I always favour a strong defence over a strong attack, and I think that Rovers will find holes in Dons’ suspect backline, and edge it by 2-1 or some such score. At a best priced 11/4, I make them a cracking bet.

If, as I confidently expect them to, Rovers win their semi-final, you’ll be able to hedge out at around evens, so I reckon this is a decent opportunity for a bet to nothing.

Of course, the Impish Lincolners may have something to say about this, but my money will be lodged in County Avon, and I’ll be rehearsing my West Country burr over the coming week.

Come on you Pirates!

Look out for tomorrow’s League One preview.

Until then, “Aw’roit moy carkers!”

Matt