Cheltenham 2008 - Supreme Novices' Hurdle Preview

One of the main problems, dear reader, of trying to find viable ante-post wagers for the Cheltenham Festival is knowing which race horses are likely to run in.

I have already put up Tidal Bay here in my Arkle preview and, alas, it looks as though the trainer favours the longer Royal & Sun Alliance Chase for TB. Surprised and disappointed as I am by this (I think the RSA is a much tougher race this year), it is the nature of the game. The Bay may yet run in the two miler, but - for now - I am suitably chastened and expect to have conceded my cash without any kind of run on that beastie.

No matter, for their are many more conundrums (conundra?) to be solved between now and mid-March. Today, let's have a crack at the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, the opening race on Tuesday, for which the more hardened amongst us salivate from the turn of the year.

The Supreme Novices' Hurdle is run over two miles, and is for novices aged four and above, though usually four year olds run in the Triumph Hurdle, which is considered a softer race (or, at least, a race for less mature horses).

There are some pretty strong trends, and that is just as well, because at the time of writing there are no less than 94 horses still entered!

However, let us consider some key common characteristics that recent winners have shared.

8 from the last 10 were aged 5 or 6. Hors La Loi III as a four year old bucked all sorts of trends, and was an exceptionally precocious animal. And Like-A-Butterfly (7/4 fav in 2002) was similarly hard to get away from when winning as an 8yo. However, for the purposes of the trends, we'll exclude all bar 5 and 6 year olds. 22 down, including Captain Cee Bee, ante-post favourite...

9 out of ten winners had won their previous start. Now of course it is possible that horses entered will run and win between now and the Festival, but most of the big prep races (except for a couple today) have been and gone already. So let's strike out last time losers. That leaves us with just 19 runners, even though we've only looked at two key stats.

Still nineteen is not exactly an easily manageable number, so let's press on with more eliminations...

All of the last ten winners had between two and four runs prior to Cheltenham, and none of them had ever placed worse than 4th over hurdles prior to Cheltenham, so we'll ignore over and underexposed sorts (again, I know that it is possible that some horses may qualify or disqualify themselves between now and the Festival), and horses who've had a stinker...

We're still left with sixteen on our list. Time to get a bit more creative, methinks... How about this one: nine of the last ten winners had won on the flat (including bumpers) over 10 furlongs or more (8/10 over 12f or more, and 7/10 over 14f or more).

Also, nine out of ten had won previously in a field of fifteen or more. This is important, as their will be a large field here, and it proves a horse can a) handle the hurly hurdle burly, and b) has a high cruising speed typically.

Applying these two criteria leaves just eleven runners.

So, finally, we should take into account class. Nine from the last ten winners had run up to a Racing Post Rating of 132 or more, the exception being last year's winner Ebaziyan.

Accounting for this leaves just Muirhead, Forpadydeplasterer, Group Captain and Pasco.

This is where it gets a bit trickier, as a couple of horses (like Numide today, Sentry Duty and Fiveforthree) could still book their places. And, of course, there is the 'which race will the trainer plump for?' question still to be answered in some cases.

To this end, it is expected that both Group Captain and Forpadydeplasterer will run in the longer 2m5f Ballymore Properties Novices' Hurdle.

So, going with what we know, this would leave us with:

Muirhead 10/1 Totesport 11.5 Betfair
Pasco 25/1 General 85 Betfair

Pasco is also entered in the County Hurdle, and could run in both or either.

I really like Muirhead, whose form is rock solid, and is bound to start at around 5/1 on the day. So grab 10/1 (or bigger on betfair) while you can. He will have a break to overcome, but aside from that, he looks each way banker material.

The Nicholls horse is also worthy of a small interest, so we'll play like this:

2.5 pts e/w Muirhead at 10/1
1 pt win Pasco at 85

Which makes the portfolio look akin to this...

Portfolio to date

Supreme Novices' Hurdle
23th Feb 2.5 pts e/w Muirhead 10/1 (Totesport)
23th Feb 1 pt win Pasco at 85 (betfair)

Arkle
14th Feb 2 pts win Tidal Bay 10/1 (General)

Champion Hurdle
28th Jan 6pts win Sizing Europe 3/1 (Ladbrokes)
1st Nov 1pt win Detroit City 26 (betfair)
1st Nov 1pt win Straw Bear 36 (betfair)

Gold Cup
24th Jan 1pt win Mossbank 75 (betfair)
24th Jan 1pt win Halcon Genelardais 110 (betfair)
24th Jan 0.5pt e/w Mossbank 50/1 (Sportingbet)
24th Jan 0.5pt e/w Halcon Genelardais 50/1 (General)

World Hurdle (aka Stayers Hurdle)
28th January 2pts e/w Blazing Bailey 9/1 (general)

I hope to preview the Royal & Sun Alliance Chase, and the Champion Chase on Sunday, time permitting.

Good luck, as ever, with your weekend wagers!

Matt

TTS Newsletter, including Cheltenham Review: How Was It For You?!

---------------------------
CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL REVIEW
----------------------------

As many of you will know if you've been following my blog comments
regarding the Festival, it was a great four days sport for this
punter. The Friday left a sense of what might have been, but overall
I certainly can't complain.

The Festival opened - as ever - with the Supreme Novices Hurdle. The
Irish have a great record in this race, and I put up Hide The
Evidence as the one to get us off to a winning start. In the event,
he was disappointing, and it was left to another Irish horse, the
virtually unconsidered Ebaziyan to strike first for the folks from
across the sea.

If you found this one, well done. Most didn't. I also mentioned to
my readers that I thought Amaretto Rose had a question to answer
about what she'd find coming off the bridle. As it turned out, and as
suspected, she found nothing. She's a classy mare when it goes her
way, but she might need bottomless ground to cruise past her rivals.

The one to take from the race looks to be Wins Now, trained by Niall
Madden. He bungled the second last before staying on to finish fifth.
A chaser in the making according to the trainer, he looks a very nice
prospect.

This year's Arkle was a cracking renewal and the first two home, My
Way De Solzen and Fair Along have been impressive all season. But the
ones I like the look of in the race are the two who fell two out.

Both Twist Magic and Don't Push It were traveling very smoothly
before their errors, and I reckon we'll see them both atone soon
enough.

Don't Push It probably wants further, but Twist Magic seems like a
very able two miler, and comes from the omnipotent stable of Paul
Nicholls. There may well be a money back mission at Aintree.

The big race of the day was the Champion Hurdle, and this year looked
to be a very open affair.

Detroit City was sent off the jolly old favourite, and was bidding to
defy the famous 'five year olds don't win the Champion Hurdle' stat.
As it turned out, he did not. But having given nothing like his
running, and with another 5yo, Afsoun, back in third, I don't think
we can say he wouldn't have won if putting best hoof forward.

Nonetheless, the speedy flat horse Sublimity could be called the
winner a long way from home, and duly hosed up. I think this year's
event marked the changing of the guard, with old stagers like Hardy
Eustace and Brave Inca probably now on the wane, and new blood
coming through with the aforementioned five year olds, as well as the
7yo winner.

Straw Bear burst a blood vessel, and was pulled up. In the US, they
use drugs to reduce the chances of this happening. Here in UK, these
are banned substances, so I wouldn't be wanting to back this horse
again in a top class race, with doubts about his health.

Not much else to mention on the card, except to say that the winner
of the Cross Country Chase is likely to be the winner of many more of
these races over the next few years. In a discipline dominated by
grand old stagers, he is a relatively speedy ten year old.

Make a note of Gordon Elliot's Silver Birch, who finished a game
second in this race. His next scheduled engagement is in the Grand
National, and he fits all of my stats (which have found the winner
for the last ten years!), so is one on an increasingly shortlist for
the Aintree feature.

Day Two opened with the well hyped Aran Concerto bidding to vindicate
his trainer's stratospheric statements about his ability. Alas,
rumours of Aran's troubled journey proved valid, as the horse drifted
markedly in the betting before finishing fifth. He travelled well
enough before getting a bump at the last and finding nothing
thereafter.

I expect him to bounce back from this, and Aran Concerto remains a
horse to follow.

The form of Wichita Lineman was given a boost by the victory of
Massini's Maguire, foiling my ante post punt on Tidal Bay in the
process!

Denman looked banker material in the Sun Alliance Chase, and duly
hacked up. He's been broadly unchallenged all season, and it will be
interesting to see how he fares against more seasoned racers next
year. Certainly quotes of 4/1 for the 2008 Gold Cup look a touch
skinny. (Put another way, they're downright miserly, and I implore
you not to take such ungenerous odds!)

The Queen Mother Champion Chase was the race I was most looking
forward to watching all week, and I had lumped on Well Chief at 15/8
the Sunday prior to the race.

Sent off the even money favourite, he didn't get more than a couple
of strides beyond the second fence.

My disappointment was contextualised by a wager of an even £100,000
by some poor (presumably, now!) punter.

The winner, Voy Por Ustedes, did it nicely and would likely have
given the Chief a run for his money. But I remain utterly convinced
that I was betting 15/8 and the hundred grand guy was betting that,
on Well Chief to get round.

Alas, history and our bank balances will record that the Chief did
not complete the course, and we did not get paid out.

Incidentally, Voy Por got beaten at Aintree last season (when I had
backed him), so I would counsel caution about backing him there
again this time around.

In terms of horses to follow, the bumper at Cheltenham is always THE
race to use. Every horse who lined up is likely to win races in the
future.

I tend to note down all of them on my horses to follow list, and I
would encourage you to do likewise. Every horse in the race (with,
perversely, the possible exception of the winner) is unexposed, and
will almost certainly go on to better things.

To illustrate my point, the 2006 bumper was contested by 23 runners.
This season, 18 have run and they have won 20 races between them.
Only three have failed to win, and they all placed second at least
once.

I rest my case (not before time, I hear you cry!)

Onto Thursday, and not a lot for this observer to get excited about.
I am not a fan of the extension to four days of the Festival. I feel
that commercial imperatives have overthrown tradition at the home of
jumps racing globally. Inevitably maybe, but still not for me.

The racing was compelling of course, and having backed Joe's Edge for
a mighty £3.03 at 85 on betfair on the Tuesday, I of course rowed in
with Ferdy Murphy's L'Antartique in the first here. My betfair odds
were double the returned SP of 20/1, but alas again it was for small
beer only.

I gave a very decent shout for this one to my blog readers (on the
basis of its trainer), and I dearly hope some of you took the advice
and relieved your bookie of 20+ times your outlay.

Incidentally, you can read the Cheltenham blog posts at:

http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/blog.html

(paste into your browser's address bar if this doesn't show as a link)

Taranis was a popular winner of the Ryanair Chase, especially in my
boozer, where a birthday boy had taken 10/1 about this a few weeks
back.

I was pleased that one of the dodgepots who had swerved a championship
race in favour of this softer target didn't win, although Our Vic
came from nowhere to almost snatch it close home.

Monet's Garden proved disappointing from a yard who for me have also
been very disappointing this season. They are unlikely to be on the
TTS roster next season.

The one true championship race of the day was the Stayers' Hurdle
(now, strangely, called the World Hurdle). It was a very competitive
event and I had a decent bet on Mighty Man. He stayed on well, but
the bird had already flown. The feathered one in this case was 2005
winner, Inglis Drever, who looked beaten but rallied as he so often
does to win a shade cosily in all probability.

Blazing Bailey ran another sound race in third, and will be better as
he gets older (he is another from last season's Triumph Hurdle that
included Detroit City and Fair Along, and is a 5yo too).

Black Jack Ketchum was well backed in the end, and crashed out early
to maintain McCoy's misery at this year's Festival.

The rest of the card doesn't really merit much attention.

The last day was, for me, the best day, in terms of quality racing
if not betting results.

I had taken some strong views, and bet accordingly. The international
Law of Sod saw all my big win bets finish second (bar one, which was
nowhere!) and my one big place bet (Flight Leader) finish fourth.
Hmmm...

I'd had a good few quid on Katchit earlier in the season, and am a
confirmed fan of the horse. Typically, come the day, I'd changed my
mind and layed much of my stake back, in order to bet Lounaos, the
clear form choice from Ireland.

As it turned out, she was never travelling, and Katchit was different
class, cruising to the front, and smashing clear when asked a question.
He's just a magic little horse, and is now my favourite NH horse. I
love him, the trainer and the jockey. There, I've said it!

Wichita Lineman was impressive in the Brit Insurance, and the unlucky
horse here was Black Harry, who exited stage downwards at the last
hurdle. He would surely have been second but for his slip, and - if
his confidence is unaffected - he'll win again very soon.

The winner won well and I should have backed him (easy with hindsight).
Instead, my cash was on Flight Leader for a place. Fourth, and I'll
say no more.

So to the Blue Riband, the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Everyone wanted to be
a layer of Kauto Star, but in the event doubts about his jumping and
resolution for three and a quarter miles were misplaced as he won
very handsomely indeed.

I had backed the second horse for decent money at a vast
price. At least I got my place bet paid out.

No sob stories here - the race ran to form. Again, this looked like
a race where many in behind were making up the numbers, marking time
before some of this season's novices get promotion to the Premier
League (step forward Denman and My Way De Solzen and, probably, Don't
Push It).

The Foxhunters' is the one shamateur riders race where I like to bet.
The main reason for this is that at least the horses are used to
being given no chance when presented at a fence, and have grown
accustomed to bailing their passengers out!

Another decent bet (Whyso Mayo), another second place. In fairness,
had the jockey won after all but unseating at the first, I'd have had
to retract all I've said about the amateurs over the past week (and
I've said plenty!!!!)

The winner should never have been 20/1. Even so, I didn't manage to
back him, but some of my drinking chums did. Bugger!

The last race of the Festival also saw my last decent bet of the
meeting and, guess what?!, it came second.

Ouninpohja was the beastie and it ran very well. Just not as well as
Pedrobob.

The salvation was that, having got 5 out of 6 in the placepot for the
first three days, I at last managed to get all six (with the forecast
in the County) on Friday.

However the Festival was for you betting wise, I hope you had a great
time, and were able to appreciate some superlative sport.

There truly is nothing quite like the Cheltenham Festival.


---------------------------------------
WHAT NEXT? HERE COMES THE FLAT SEASON!
---------------------------------------

With just Aintree to go from a jumping perspective, in terms of the
big meetings, eyes are now starting to look towards the summer season
and the Flat Turf.

The season kicks off later than usual this year, and not at Doncaster
(which I believe is still receiving the finishing touches to some
cosmetic surgery, before reopening later in the year).

Newcastle has the honour of hosting the first Flat meeting of this
year, on 31st March. Then, after a couple of days off at the
beginning of April, it will be Flat turf racing all the way through
to early November.

To help you find a few winners, I have been busily researching
trainer patterns at each of the 32 turf tracks. I have nominated at
least one trainer at each course, with the exception of Lingfield's
turf course where, due to the infrequency of meetings, there are no
strong trends.

For those of you familiar with TrainerTrackStats, the jumping
equivalent of TrainerFlatStats (TFS), there are some key differences
to note in the new publication.

Firstly, a number of you commented that there were simply too many
bets to place. TFS has one trainer only nominated at most tracks,
and just one track has four trainers to follow, which is the most
anywhere.

This brings the average number of bets down to around one a day. Of
course, some days there may be five bets, and some days none. But,
overall, this will average to around thirty qualifiers a month.

Secondly, I have introduced an indicator of strength for each trainer.
Trainers have qualified for TFS if they've satisfied at least one of
the following three criteria with a specific subset of their runners
from 2002-2006:

i) A strike rate of 1 in 3 (33.33%) or better.
ii) A level stakes profit of 30 points or better.
iii) A level stakes percentage of 100% or better. (This means per
runner bet, you would at least double your money).

Some trainers satisfy two or three of these criteria, and could
therefore be considered stronger bets.

I am also including four bonus products with the guide, as follows:

- FIVE Proven Racing Systems. These have all won good money consistently
over the past five seasons, and their full season by season breakdown
is included.

- SIX Of The Best Trainers To Follow. As well as a couple of familiar
trainers to follow everywhere in specific race types, there is at least
one trainer here who I think 95% of you will have never heard of, and
who I think is definitely one to follow in 2007!

- Make The Most Of Your Winners: Staking Plans Explained. A look at
five different staking plans, and how these might be introduced to
your betting to optimise your financial returns.

- How To Use Betting Exchanges To Optimise Your Profits. This was
also included with TTS for those who got that. These days, I would
urge everybody to open a betfair (or similar) account, to guarantee
getting the best value odds. There is also a series of free bet
vouchers included in the appendix.

So that's the guide, plus four cracking bonuses.

The sale price will be £57... BUT NOT FOR YOU!

The guide will go on sale this Saturday (24th March), a week ahead of
the start of the season.

Between then and the official start of the season (31st March), you'll
be able to get a copy of all of the above for LESS THAN HALF PRICE.

For just £27, you'll be able to start researching the trainers to
follow at your local track, or just generally, in readiness for the
start of the turf flat season proper.

But this offer is only good for those seven days. On the morning of
31st March, I'll be revising all payment links to the standard price
of £57.

Note that there will also be special subscription offers for those of
you who like to receive daily email alerts of the following day's
runners.

I'll send you an email on 24th with all the details, so look out for
that if you're interested!

-------------
THE TTS JOKE
-------------

Joe and his two friends are talking at work. His first friend says:
"I think my wife is having an affair with the electrician.The other
day I came home and found wire cutters under our bed and they weren't
mine."

His second friend says: "I think my wife is having an affair with the
plumber. The other day I found a wrench under the bed and it wasn't
mine."

Joe says: "I think my wife is having an affair with a horse."
Both his friends look at him with utter disbelief. "No I'm serious.
The other day I came home and found a jockey under our bed."

(I know, its awful. If you think you can do better, email me your
effort at

enquiries@trainertrackstats.com)


That's all for this newsletter. I hope you've enjoyed reading it.

I'll be posting this and all subsequent newsletters on my blog site,
which you can access at:

http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/blog.html

As ever, if you've any comments, please either email me at
enquiries@trainertrackstats.com or leave a comment on the blog site
(nothing too rude please!)

Best Regards

Matt

Day Three Review: (I'm) Hit And Miss(ed)

Forgive me, dear reader, for today I have fallen victim to the excesses of man, in the shape of several glasses of tar coloured ale. (I hate to think what my intestines look like, and - in the interests of many of your upcoming (hopefully not literally) dinners, I implore you not to ponder the hue of my bowel for too long either!)

So how was it for you? Day three. Small 't' in three, because this is majoritively poor fair, when compared with the illustrious sport of the other three days. Nevertheless, each race presents a betting opportunity and a winning opportunity to boot.

The day started with tremendous excitement as Ferdy Murphy - what a man! - did it again, with 20/1 shot L'Antartique. Now nobody who reads my bluster can have failed to at least considered the animal for this race, as I gave him a huge shout yesterday. So well done if you backed him. I was on for small money (should, as always with a winner, have been on for more!)

The favourite, King Revo, had no right whatsoever to win. And if you backed that, I'm afraid you get a mug ticket in my book. Its just not as easy as following the money in these races.

Onwards and downwards as, alas, it was for me today.

In the second race, I had poohpoohed the possibility of dodgepot Monet's Garden here, and he had no excuses in a well beaten fourth. In his stead, I had favoured one of the 'up and comers' in Racing Demon, who I nominated as a strong each way bet. Finishing only fifth, he was a little disappointing. The way he jumps, with his back arching to one side, he looks like he may have a muscle problem, but I'm not a judge of these things.

The race was won by an improver in Taranis, and I'm glad it was. If this event is to establish itself at the Festival, it needs to be for providing a springboard for intermediates on the up, rather than being a 'soft' option for horses dodging the big races. Sorry if you backed Monet's but he is just not my cup of tea. (Incidentally, I can't bear his trainer, Nicky Richards, who is off the TTS list next season, and I am convinced is - lets say - 'romantically entangled' with the inept Rose Davidson, who he keeps putting up on horses with good chances. She couldn't ride a finish at home on the sofa!)

My mates backed the winner here, and I got through the placepot with Our Vic. More on that sob story later...

The third race, and by a country mile the highlight of the day, was the Stayers Hurdle, now sponsored by Ladbrokes and referred to for some reason as the World Hurdle. Black Jack Ketchum was the main imponderable around a group of established and proven form animals, with a few exciting novices chucked in for added seasoning. A real spicy casserole of a race, my cash had fallen on the Man who is Mighty (that's Mighty Man, in case you've been asleep the last couple of days) to finally put the BJK myth to bed.

Alas, the myth remains, as BJK - who struck the first hurdle - fell at, I think, the third. It was a heavy fall and he will have lost some confidence in the process. McCoy is having a mare of a festival, but may redeem himself tomorrow.

So it was that the more established players contested the relevant end of the race. Inglis Drever, who looked in a spot of bother at one point, picked up the bit turning in and swooped wide. From there, it was always a vain chase for the sweet travelling Blazing Bailey and the Mighty Man. Both threw down noteworthy challenges to the leader, but I was left with the impression that the winner had a little more in the tank.

The one to take from the race is the admirable Blazing Bailey who, at five years young, has many more turns to try and win a Stayers Hurdle.

Incidentally, place wagers on the second and third almost recovered my win losses on the same two horses.

Mighty Man hitting the frame, and the first three favourites notably absent from anything you might place around a picture, meant that I was also into a nice placepot position, having banked in the second and third legs to give me plenty of options in legs 4 through 6.

So it was to the fourth leg. I had had a smallish bet on Opera Mundi, but that horse was never traveling. As a fan of Nicky Henderson, I'd chucked in Mariah Rollins as a speculative, and she / he managed to squeak third.

Having notched three from the first four in the first race, and my bankers in the second and third legs, I had now got through a tricky event to move onto the fifth leg. (My pal, whose birthday it was today, backed L'Antartique, Taranis, Inglis Drever and Idole First. Now that's what you call a birthday!)

As regular readers will know, I'm not a fan of amateur races, and I especially detest this one. Over four miles for novice chasers, jumping 27 fences, in the incapable hands of a bunch of aspirant wannabe's who never will be. Staggeringly, the jolly old favourite, and class horse of the race, Gungadu, was put up at 11/8 in the morning.

Sensibly, his jockey, "Aye Aye" Cap'n Snowden had him out front and out of trouble from the other horses. The trouble with Gungadu though is that he is his own worst enemy and pretty much always clouts one or many of those pesky impediments called fences that litter his path to glory.

Today was no exception: he'd failed to show finesse at a number of bushes, before being 'laissez faire' in the extreme at the second last and taking his - and my placepot's - chances with him.

My wagers - and fellow placepot selections - in this race were on Miko De Beauchene and Swift Thyne. You probably don't need me to tell you that in the 'Can't Jump Won't Jump: Can't Ride Won't Ride' Novices' Chase, these both hit the deck. Miko was traveling ominously well and would certainly have made the frame, bar the fall. But that comment may also apply to a number of other competitors whose contribution in this annual farce concluded with them assuming the horizontal position turfwards.

Knowing that the placepot pool was shaping up nicely, and with (very) limited other interest in the last, I was hoping that my four in the race would come a cropper.

Alas, the fickle finger of fate favours ironic fun over mercy killings. And so it was that one of my selections, Oscar Park, held the late rally of Material World to secure me my third consecutive (and most painful to date) five-out-of-six placepot day. The sugar on this pill was that I had a vast £2 on Oscar at 26 with betfair. I'd actually spread £14 evenly over seven rags in this race, a tactic I adopt when I'm bereft of clue, as was the case here.

One of my National hopes, Cloudy Bays, took a nasty fall when leading early in the race, and I hope he's sufficiently well to take his place in the second week of April.

As ever, it was tough for punters today. I managed to clear a small profit, broadly down to the new Messiah, Ferdy Murphy, and I hope some of you had it too.

Tomorrow is outstanding as the best day of the week, in my opinion. And I have taken some fairly strong punting views. So it will certainly be a decisive day in terms of winning or losing on the week.

This will be my last post on Cheltenham, aside from a brief wrap up some time over the weekend. I've been drinking Guinness - tea - Guinness - tea this week to ensure I retained sufficient sobriety for these pieces. So I hope, dear reader, that you will forgive me tomorrow's lapse into self-indulgent hedonism.

Best of luck with your choices tomorrow - mine are posted on the blog.

http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/blog.html

I hope your week has been as enjoyable as mine. If its been half as good, you'll have had a great time!

Until next time, my racing friends, may your next wager need collecting.

Matt

Day Four Preview: Saving The Best For Last...

After three days of magnificent and hugely competitive sport, the final quarter is - in my opinion - the best. There are four races that would be the highlight in a month of racing, all sharing one star-crammed card. From Triumph to County, tomorrow will be a day to savour. And, of course, to bet!

Finding winners is often easier in advance (the theory is usually simpler than the practical in my experience, but enough of my bedroom shortcomings!), so let's get started.

First up, the traditionally insoluble Triumph Hurdle. You get a clue to how difficult this race is when a few years ago, bookies decided to pay out on fourth place! A concession from a bookie is generally an indication of the gravity of a situation. However, in the case of the Triumph, where - despite numerical weight - there are usually only a handful who could be considered the winners.

That, I am convinced, is the case this year. There is a standout form horse, and a few others unexposed enough to potentially win. Forget the rest.

The standout form horse is Lounaos (not sure how you pronounce it, so I'll be routing for Lunar tomorrow!). She is an Irish filly and carried all before her, prior to running a respectable fourth in the Irish Champion Hurdle. She was beaten only five lengths by Champion Hurdle second Brave Inca (albeit in receipt of nineteen pounds), and that is by a mile the best form in this race.

Given that she is again in receipt of the seven pounds mares' allowance here, she must have an outstanding chance. Mares do win this, as Snowdrop and others have proved. Is it too daft to nominate a nap of the day in the Triumph Hurdle, a race where the bookies offer four places? Well, I may have been certified gah-gah by this point anyway, so I'm putting this one up as the bet of the day.

Dangers come from the titanium-plated Katchit (I have a saver here because my heart dearly wants him to win); the Mr Ed of the race, Mountain (I've heard more rumours about this horse than any other but, ultimately, he's inexperienced and doesn't jump very well. That's not my idea of a bet in the Triumph, despite his unquestionable class); Degas Art (who has never seen a field even a third as big as this before, and again has it to prove. He's also relatively exposed); Duty (only other Irish contender of note, but not in the same form league as Lounaos); and Liberate (an early fancy for me, but disappointing in a slow run race behind Poquelin, who will probably also run).

For me, Lounaos is a clear selection and, granted sound passages - both across the Irish Sea, and during the race - will be VERY hard to beat.

Next up is the Brit Insurance Novices' Hurdle, and results so far this week, as well as form in the book, point again only in one direction. The Lineman from Wichita looks to have a cracking chance in this race, and I don't oppose him lightly. Nonetheless, I do oppose him.

The next up in the market, and underestimated due to his unheralded (except for TTS readers of course!) stable, is C L Tizzard's Flight Leader. This horse has top class form, having been third behind Blazing Bailey and Inglis Drever in the Cleeve Hurdle last time out. Still available at 6.6 on betfair at the time of writing, I can't see this one being longer than 9/2 on the day.

There is bound to be solid support for Wichita Lineman, and he may go off around the 6/4 mark. If that's your idea of getting jam on your bread, good luck to you. I can't say the horse won't win, because he very well might. But I'll be topping up my ante-post ticket on Flight Leader whom, I hope at the line, will be the slight leader.

Then comes the Gold Cup. A wonderful race always, this year will be no exception. The Irish had a field day last year, filling the first three places (with the French back in fourth!). This year, they look to have a weakened hand, with Beef or Salmon, Cane Brake and Forget The Past headed their assault. The first named cleans up in Ireland but has proven before he doesn't travel well, and is a big place lay for me. In fact, he's a dodgy jumper and - I suspect - will fail to complete (as he has done two out of four times previously here). Cane Brake has done nothing wrong in heavy ground handicaps, but that's hardly what you need to win here, so I oppose him lightly too. Forget The Past is probably the pick of the three, and finished third last year. He ran a stinker last time, which was not his running, and I can see him sneaking the frame again this year, without being good enough to win.

Of the British horses in the race, the key for sure is Kauto Star. Despite all of the negative noises made about him, he is a mile clear on form. At less than 2/1 I'd be happy to pass him up, but if he goes 9/4 or 5/2 he becomes very interesting. If he stands up and stays, he wins. [Yes, I do understand the magnitude of those two imponderables!]

I have made no secret of backing Exotic Dancer at huge odds (average odds of 85.66 to be precise!), and will be cheering him home. He travels supremely well and generally is a sound jumper. Whether he's good enough, we'll learn tomorrow.

I don't really like much else in the race, but an honourable mention for State of Play, who is clearly progressive as well, and comes from a very shrewd yard. He does however have to defy a break of nearly four months since his impressive seasonal debut, which puts me off.

After the ballyhoo of the main event, comes the tallyho of the Foxhunters. By now you will know my views on the amateur rider races. However, I actually think this race is a decent betting proposition. Of course, you still need a bit of luck in running, but there are generally only half a dozen who can win, and some of them are put up at decent prices.

The favourite, and most likely winner, is last year's champ, Whyso Mayo. Unbeaten since his triumph last year (including in the Champion Hunter Chase at the Punchestown Festival), and available at 3/1, I reckon this is a decent bet and will be availing myself of the 'carpet' (that's 3/1 to you).

Elsewhere in the lineup, plenty of fondly remembered names from yesteryear (or last year anyway), and plenty of deadwood. Scything through the extinct xylem, I'd put up the unexposed Honourable Spider as the best each way bet (available at 14/1), though his inexperience may count against him in this race. Granted a clear run, he could give the Mayo some food for thought (sorry, that's awful).

The only other one worthy of a mention for me is Christy Beamish, who chased home Katarino in the Aintree Foxhunters' last year, and was clear of the rest. He's in the book at a very tasty 25/1, and when he wins, I want you all to say 'thank you Matt'!

Those are my three, and the ones who get round will go close.

Which just leaves us with the County Hurdle. Its an impossible race, and if you need to get out here, the best of luck to you! I will be having five pounds of interest only. If I'm losing going into the race, I will just wipe my mouth and accept that there will be no redemption here.

For what its worth (very little), my thoughts on the winner are Ouninpohja has a very similar profile to last year's winner and this year's topweight, Desert Quest. He's also owned, trained and ridden by last year's team. He'll do for me, despite reservations about his temperament. The horse has tons of class and will travel like a dream in the race.

I'd love to see Fair Along win, but won't be backing the Arkle second. As game as he is, that race must have left its mark.

Callow Lake from the shrewd and Festival winning stable of Jessie Harrington is also respected.

That's my lot, and I remain confident of surviving at worst and, who knows?, maybe even stealing a small profit over the four days.

I hope that, as you read this, you're still in the game and enjoying this equine extravaganza as much as this humble scribe.

Matt

Day Two Review: Rude Awakening

After the magic of day one, inevitably, came the misery of day two.

A cracking day's sport was in prospect, and punters' hopes were high, due to the presence of three apparently rock solid favourites in the first three races. How the bookies must love apparently rock solid favourites.

First up on day two was the novices hurdle over 2m 5f. The favourite was the alleged wonderhorse, Aran Concerto. However, rumours at the track this morning were that he had not travelled over especially well, and this was reflected in his price. He drifted out to as big as 3/1 before being returned the slain 5/2 jolly.

Yesterday, I'd given a big shout to Silverburn, who was the plunge horse in the face of opposition to the Concerto. Backed from 7/1 into half that price, he ran well but still not well enough for a place on the podium.

The finish was fought out by two horses I mentioned in the preview yesterday but - as a portent for the rest of the day - I got them the wrong way round. My ante post tickets on Tidal Bay, at odds of 24 and 34 on betfair would have given me a guaranteed winning week irrespective of subsequent events.

Charging, lunging, flying at the finish, his efforts too late to wrest the race from the brave Massini's Maguire, with Catch Me back in third.

I could and should have backed the winner for small money, but didn't, having given it an honourable mention in despatches yesterday, due to its form tie-ins with Wichita Lineman (surely a good thing on Friday now?)

No matter. On to the Sun Alliance chase. As I said yesterday in the preview, Cailin Alainn did not complete the course: talented but can't jump, and Denman won as he liked. On another day, or at another festival, he would have been my 'get stuck in' wager of the meeting. Easy to say in hindsight of course. Except that I said that yesterday too.

A worthy winner but the 4/1 about him winning the Gold Cup is, at this stage, bordering on offensive.

So to the main event of the day. Is it just me, or is it hard to take a race seriously when its gone from being the Queen Mother Champion Chase to being the Seasons Holidays Queen Mother Champion Chase?! Nevertheless, they pay their good money to sponsor the race, so its only fair that I should give them a mention. I'm guessing they're a holiday firm. I wonder if they're related to Hoseasons, who a few years ago, used to sell us canal holidays. Erm, I'm rambling. Sorry about that.

Well Chief, my strongest fancy and - by a furlong - my biggest bet of the week, at 15/8. Big fat juicy price about an even money favourite, I thought. But of course, having shared this information with the world and his mistress, there was never even a remote possibility of collecting.

The mistake he made was preposterously novice-y for one so experienced. Indeed, WC had only ever fallen once before, and that was against the same Mister McGoldrick who barged him at the first fence and at the second when he came down.

Ever more infuriatingly, I was going to back Voy Por Ustedes to get at least some of my WC stake back, as he was the only conceivable danger (as discussed in a previous newsletter). Guess what? I didn't. I hope that many of you did.

WC would have won this race. As clearly as that is idle irrelevant conjecture on my part, I am certain that the proximity of the tumbling Ashley Brook at the last and, even more so, the moderate River City who picked up bronze, show this form to be bunk.

Voy Por is a very good horse. But I won't be on him at Aintree, with or without WC in the race. He lost there to Monet's Garden last year, and I don't think he has the speed for that track.

WC remains the best two mile chaser in Europe and, if you're into betting horses for next year's events (which I am not), Corals are offering 5/1 about him righting this wrong.

As I'm sure you'll be aware, I'm talking through a hole in my pocket the size of - well the size of my pocket.
Well done to you if you found the winner, or the placed horses.

I should also mention Dempsey who, without the assistance of Makepeace, ran a stormer to finish second, having traveled like the winner turning in.

My final word on this race, and by way of catharsis for me, and for you if you backed it too is the below. I have copied the recorded bets from the Sporting Life website. There are bigger holes (in doubtless bigger trousers) than mine tonight:

£5000-£4000 £3125-£2500 £1250-£1000 £33000-£30000 (x2) £22000-£20000 £11000-£10000 (x4) £5500-£5000 (x2) £4400-£4000 (x4) £3300-£3000 (x4) £2200-£2000 (x2) £1100-£1000 (x3) £100000-£100000 £10000-£10000 (x2) £6000-£6000 £5000-£5000 (x2) £2500-£2500 £2000-£2000 (x3) £1000-£1000 (x10)

[Yes, that is an even hundred grand. Or fifty grand per fence!]

Moving on... the championship Grade 1's over with, and back to impossible handicap fare. I must concede to not having too much interest hereafter, but I did have a small ante-post interest on Mister Hight at 16 on betfair (got the price at least!), and I also backed Powerstation for a place for a modest sum at 4.7, which returned a thread or two of the aforementioned scorched pocket.

The winner was impressive, and is trained by a GP with only three other horses. One of those other three is the phenomenally tough and consistent Overstrand, who runs in the World Hurdle tomorrow. Again, in a previous newsletter, I gave that horse 'fun bet' status for the stayer's hurdling crown. Surely the Good Doctor can't have two Festival winners at the first attempt?!

Next up, and the predicted carnage ensued in the shambolic riders, er sorry, the amateur riders handicap chase. I know I give these people a hard time, but its for a good reason.

Look, you, dear reader, and I have to work for our cash. We are then coaxed into betting on events where the outcome is not just left dangling on the whims of a thoroughbred, but also in many cases on the whims of an inbred as well! (Ok, that is too harsh, and I retract it).

The winner - curiously enough - was tipped in yesterday's preview as one of the few horses with a decent jockey up top. No dough on in these quarters, but I did nominate it in my head to head with a racing mate (hoo hoo hoo Gavin, you've got a lot of ground to make up in the straight!!)

Last knockings today was the Festival Bumper. This race will throw up more winners than any other race at this year's festival. And I'm not being smart when I say that. It does every year.

The horses in this race are considered the best 'babies' in their respective stables, and that is as relevant for the 66/1 rags as for the 4/1 fav Mad Fish. If you keep a notebook with horses to follow, my simple advice is to add the names of every single one in this field. They will be winning from Fakenham to Fairyhouse, and from Tipperary (to where, incidentally, it is a long way) to Taunton, and all outposts and hotbeds in between.

You heard it here first. (Unless, of course, you've already heard this somewhere else).

The race itself was interesting. I, like many others, felt the Irish challenge was pretty weak this season. I, like many others, now look like a bumbling idiot. Who are we to doubt the nation that has provided all bar three of the winners of this race?

As it transpired, they had not just the winner, nor even the first three home, but the first FIVE home, and seven of the first eight home. That's just embarrassing.

So make special note of One Gulp, Fiddling Again, and the unlucky (and slightly errant) Lodge Lane. The last named incidentally was very well ridden, despite his naughty tactics, by young James White. He looks a decent jock in the making to these untutored eyes.

The winner, Cork All Star, was signing off in bumper, having now won the maximum four. Indeed, he'd given us all a sneak preview of what he could do when winning here last time out in November.

But I couldn't find him. And, in fairness, as darkness has now descended I still haven't been able to find the horses I backed in the race behind him.

As the half-time whistle blows on this year's Cheltenham, it's been tough to be a punter to date.

Tomorrow, for me, will be a drinking day first with only the Stayers Hurdle (World Hurdle as its known these days) to win / lose me a decent sum.

I hope you have reached the dressing room needing at worst a quick patch up, ready for the second half, and at best having already scored a couple of beauties. For me, I scored a couple of scorchers on day one, but I'm smarting badly from the missed penalty kick at 3.15 today.

Until tomorrow...

Cheltenham Day Three Preview: Over The Brow...

And so, dear reader, refreshed from our half-time orange and cup of tea and - as necessary - hairdryer treatment if you had a particularly poor first half, we embark on races 13 through 18.

Now I have to concede to being a traditionalist, and the third day of Cheltenham I am afraid, for me, is not a Championship Festival day of racing. Rather, its an excuse for bookies to bleed money from punters and for the racecourse to squeeze another 70,000 people into a (very large) grandstand shaped phonebox.

I will tell you now that most of my week's punting action will have concluded by the close of the first half, and tomorrow (Thursday) will be a day of drinking and celebrating / commiserating the action from the first two days. However, though a traditionalist, I am also a confirmed gambling addict. And, as such, will be having 'interest bets' on the races tomorrow.

For what its worth, here's my view:

2.00 Novices Handicap Chase - three words, three reasons not to bet. Lots of 1's, 2's and 3's in the form and lots of unexposed horses. If you can forgive him bad run last time, Flintoff might be a topical winner with England about to pull on the pads for the start of the Cricket World Cup. Ladbrokes are offering 33/1, which strikes me as value in an impossible race. Prior to disappointing last time, he won two on the bounce on heavy ground. He's a dodgy jumper who may not like the ground and might have too much weight, and yet - in this race - he's still the one for me!

I'm going to take another one to give me an interest in the race after 'Freddie's' possible early bath, and that one is King's Advocate from the Tom Taaffe yard.He has decent form in Ireland and was a predictably staying on third last time over two miles. He wants the longer trip and shouldn't mind the ground. In a wide open race, he could make the frame.

I always look for Ferdy Murphy in Cheltenham handicap chases (two last year, and 50/1 Joes Edge yesterday should mean you are looking for him too!), and he has L'Antartique in here off an attractive weight. This one was beaten only two lengths by Dom D'Orgeval last time and, by the time you read this (if the Sun Alliance has been run), that may look top class form. He sneaks in here off 10-11 and the 33/1 about his chance is surely too big.

2.35 A Grade 2 in name only. Lots of horses who would have been beaten in the Championship races have swerved into this affair. There are a couple of decent sticks in here who, in fairness, probably need two and a half miles rather than two or three miles.

Monet's Garden is definitely swerving the big guns after running so brilliantly against Voy Por Ustedes in the Arkle last year, and could win this. But he's not for me after dodging the big boys.

Our Vic probably has the best level of form in the race, and could easily win. I will definitely be having a saver on him. But for me, I'm going to look to a little each way value in the shape of the progressive Racing Demon.

Trained by triple Gold Cup-winning handler, Mrs Terry Biddlecombe (you might know her as Henrietta Knight), this beastie was impressive at Huntingdon in their big chase of the season, the Peterborough, before falling when favourite for a hot little handicap hurdle last time out.

Assuming he's no worse for the experience, I reckon he's a place good thing. There are a series of other intermediate type animals here, most of whom it may be unfair to crab for going for this race.

However, I like crabbing, and I will drink to Racing Demon reaching the frame and, with a bit of luck, troubling the judge for the gold medal position.

3.15 Thank Heavens for the Ladbrokes World Hurdle! A true championship race, and one full of intrigue to boot! The wheels fell off the previously invincible Black Jack Ketchum last time out, when the heavy ground was blamed for his inability to maintain the series of 1's by his name.

I am prepared to believe that he had an off day. However, saying that, I still don't feel that his form merits him being a 9/4 favourite for this race. He's sure to travel like a dream, but - as you may know already - I like to know what a horse finds off the bridle. When he was asked to find last time, the tank was empty. One paced may be a harsh observation, especially when that one pace is 5th gear, but this guy doesn't appear to have an overdrive.

So, to the contenders: shortlist for me is Blazing Bailey, Inglis Drever, Kasbah Bliss and Mighty Man. I'd throw in Asian Maze too if she runs, but suspect she'll be having a rest tomorrow. (I know these are the next four in the betting, but that's because they're most likely to win!)

I am a huge fan of Blazing Bailey, who bids to reaffirm the form of the Triumph Hurdle of last year, after Detroit City's poor run in the Champion Hurdle and Fair Along's creditable second in the Arkle. However, huge fan as I am, it will still be a tremendous effort to beat his olders in this race. I've backed him already but will be taking another against the field.

Inglis Drever is game and consistent and is a previous winner of this race, but I just have a nagging doubt that he will find at least one of these too good.

From France, Kasbah Bliss represents the multiple-Stayers Hurdle winning team of Francois Doumen (remember the magnificent Baracouda?), so there will be no questions unanswered about whether this horse is good enough. Douman is bordering on genius status for me, and rarely goes home from the Festival empty-handed. Kasbah Bliss gave a stone and more to the three horses who beat him last time out, and racing on even terms here must have a big shout.

Nonetheless, I will reluctantly say 'non' to this one, and pitch my punting tent firmly in the Mighty Man camp. Possibly the forgotten horse of the race, he has rock solid form credentials, and the ground has definitely come right for him. He's currently trading at around 6/1 on betfair and this represents excellent value in my opinion. So its the Man to be Mighty for Matty!

4.00 After the brief excursion into top drawer equine exertion, we revert to the pony club stuff with the Racing Post Plate (A Handicap Chase). The name says it all. THE World Hurdle. A handicap chase. I will be drunk by this point (not really, mum!) and, depending on how the previous race pans out, may get stuck into one here...

Opera Mundi is the name. At a best priced 9/2 in a 24 runner handicap chase, its not exactly banker material. But the horse looks potentially top class and gets plenty of weight concessions from some of the older, more established and more exposed runners, notably stable companion Armaturk, who has to lug 11-12 round.

There are very few unexposed horses in opposition, and it might be stablemate Nycteos who gives the selection the biggest headache. He's had one run this year, a couple of weeks ago, and will be ready enough for this.

Good luck if you're playing here - as I've referred to previously, I am not especially good at finding winners in Festival Handicaps.

4.40 Hahaha. Brace yourselves, ladies and gentlemen, for the annual carnage that is twenty overzealous amateurs trying to cajole their inexperienced steeds to jump the 27 fences, spanning over four miles, of the 137th Year of the National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup (Amateur Riders' Novices' Chase). A long title, and one littered with reasons to go to the bar / toilet / kitchen. You should get paid out if your horse gets round in this race!

No matter. To possible winners: Gungadu is clearly the best horse in the race and has the Captain on board (that's Jamie Snowden to you, he can ride a horse) and must have the best chance. But he's 11/8. 11/8!!! In a field of 20 knackers! If he can swerve the enveloping pandemonium, he should be made Sergeant bloody Major!

So I'll chance my arm with a couple of rags, much more in hope than expectation.

R H Alner (a good Dorset man like myself) is a decent enough trainer of stayers, and he has Miko de Beauchene in here. He wouldn't have the class of the ridiculously short priced favourite. But he will stay and is a much more tempting speculative wager. At 14's with Stan James, he's worth a tickle.

My other against the field is the massively unexposed Swift Thyne. He's only had two runs and, as they say, could be anything. Well, not quite anything. He couldn't be a cow for example. Or a toaster. He's definitely a horse. And he might, just might, be able to give us a run for small money at 50/1.

One important point of order here, dear reader. This is a novices' chase where most of the runners will fail to complete. DON'T BOTHER TO BET EACH WAY!!! Bet two horses to win, if you are tempted to bet each way.

[I am now braced for a stack of sob story emails about punters who were on the 2nd and 3rd horses at 100/1, but did them win only on my advice!]

5.20 The Get Out Stakes just doesn't get any easier! This time we're asked to contemplate the outcome of two dozen carefully campaigned hurdlers over three miles.

Perversely, another of my Grand National fancies runs here. The horse is Cloudy Bays, and its not unfancied. I couldn't possibly back him for this race, but of course I hope for a big run. I'm on at over 300/1 incidentally for the Aintree biggie.

So who will win? Well, to be honest, "I'm sorry, I haven't a clue!".

I'm a big fan of Lennie Lungo, and he runs Monolith and previous winner Freetown. This is a race usually won by a big priced horse, and so I will reluctantly pass these two over, in favour of something with a less obvious chance.

Way way down the lists, you will find two nags called Ostfanni and Arrayou. I don't know much about either of them, except that they will be big prices and generally run consistently. This race, unlike the last, is a race to play each way in, and I put these two up as sporting tickets against the field.

After this is concluded, we will have reached the end of the third day. Many of us will be gasping for air, and cursing the fact that the meeting now runs into a fourth day.

But, oh boy!, what a fourth day. Triumph Hurdle, Gold Cup, comedy Foxhunters, County Hurdle and lots more besides. Bring it on!

Day One Review: Pinch Me, I Think I'm Dreaming!

Wow, this is what it feels like! I've often wondered. Today I had a winning Tuesday. Which means for the rest of the week (or tomorrow at least), I won't be chasing losses.

The day panned out like this for me...

2.00 All about Amaretto Rose according to the market. I had backed Hide The Evidence and was happy to let my 10/1 ticket ride in this race, with this pair carrying my placepot hopes. As suggested in my comments yesterday, Rosey cruised into contention, but found nought off the bridle. Had she finished second, I would have accepted that she was beaten by a better horse (the winner was doing the proverbial acrobatics coming to the last), but she was outbattled by Granit Jack, who'd been rowed along for some way for the silver medal position. For me, she oozes class but finds nought. 40/1 on the winner and I was nowhere near pulling this one out.

The one observation I would make is that Aga Khan bred horses seem to be making an impact at the festival. They are usually classy middle distance flat horses, and this one - by Daylami out of Ebadiyla (a Sadlers Wells mare) - travelled imperiously before being let off the lead to win.

Not many found this one - I want to hear from you at the forum if you did!!
( http://nag-nag-nag.co.uk/phpBB2/index.php )

2.35 The Arkle was a race where I also had a view after crabbing Rosey in the first. Here I felt that it was a 3 horse race (My Way, Fair Along and Don't Push It) and that Don't Push It was a dodgy jumper. At the risk of gloating and offending people who backed the McManus owned animal, I was right.

Fair Along ran a fine race and was staying on after untypical non-front-running tactics were employed. This one will be back again at Aintree I expect, and will be closer to the winner. He was also hampered by the departing DPI.

Make a note of Twist Magic, who was also travelling very well when coming down at the same tricky fence as DPI. There'll be more tumblers at this obstacle before the week is out.

I had a nice bet on the winner at 5.6 on betfair a few days ago, and this set me up for a no lose day.

3.15 The Champion Hurdle and not a race I was strong on in any way. My heart said Hardy Eustace, and my head said Detroit City (though I had the doubt about the 5 year old stat in there too). In the end, I fought the stat, and backed another 5yo, Afsoun, each way at 33/1. I sneaked an 8.25/1 place and Betfred are yet again delighted to have taken my business...!

As for the race itself, Sublimity could have been called the winner a long way out (and indeed was in my boozer!). DC clouted the first and was never in the race after that, and I suspect he may have suffered an injury at that point.

Hardy and Brave Inca ran their usual gutsy races but the winner - another flat bred - was way too good for them this day. My placepot departed on the back of Hardy and Detroit, but the sugar with the pill was Afsoun cauding Hardy to miss the frame by nicking 3rd close home.

4.00 The Grade 1 affairs over with, and life becomes more challenging. Usually. Now this may be hard to believe, but having given favourable mentions to Juveigneur and Distant Thunder, as well as the (I'm sorry to report) late Little Brick, I actually placed the last £3.03 in my betfair account last night on the former Scottish National winner, Joe's Edge, at a tasty 85. Here in London, where beer is not cheap, that was worth 84 Guinnesses to one. I won't be thirsty tomorrow, or Thursday either!

Very sad to report that Little Brick broke a shoulder and, while I had him as a non-stayer for the Grand National, I would have liked to see him prove it. A very good horse sent to pasture elsewhere alas.

A thrilling finish for this race, and one which I doubt will be bettered at the festival. After three knackering miles, the tricast was decided by a couple of fag papers (or short heads, as they're more correctly referred to).


4.40 The Novelty Race was won by the Irish new kid on the block, Heads Onthe Ground, as expected. He had too much speed for the old boys and looks set to dominate for a few years to come, unless another youngster emerges. In the places, Silver Birch advertised his National claims (I'm on at 100 - see my Grand National piece on the blog - http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/blog.html - for the others I've sided with.)

Further back, the unreliable but clearly talented Le Duc ran an excellent third, and surely everyone's favourite, Spot Thedifference was fourth, rewarding each way support. I reckon with the emergence of the same owner / trainer combo's winner, Spotty may be retired now. And not before time. He's a living legend and unquestionably a favourite of mine.

5.20 Regular readers will know I had been (apparently) savvy enough to back Gaspara prior to her winning the Imperial Cup on Saturday, in the suspicion that the trainer would be going for the £75,000 bonus at the Festival.

Well, under an extremely aggressive ride from Andrew Glassonbury (claiming 5lb), he never saw another rival. I have to concede to thinking the jockey was mildly psychotic in that he couldn't possibly win the race from the front. But this mare stays, and she's gutsy, and she's got more than a little class. Today she proved it, and I'm delighted to report I got paid out. Nothing much of note in behind, except that Pipe had the third horse, whose French form was closely related to the winner, but who was sent off an unfancied 16/1 chance.

Well done to you if you found winners today. My punting chums were cursing their fortunes and only managed to congratulate me through grimaces, despite drinking to my health for most of the afternoon!

So first blood to me, but I'm way too wisened and cynical to believe that my meeting will continue in this fortuitous fashion. I'd have to have the talent, guts and stamina of Gaspara to maintain today's luck. And, alas, I have none of those three attributes.

So, if you were a winner today, regroup and count your blessings. For greater challenges lie ahead. If today you were vanquished, know that the league is never won at Christmas, and Cheltenham is never lost on Tuesday.

Best of luck for tomorrow - I'll continue to report through the week.

Comments if you have any would be welcomed at the forum - http://nag-nag-nag.co.uk/phpBB2/index.php

Best Regards
Matt

Day Two Preview: This Time Its Personal!

And so the first flushes of optimism have dissipated and the harsh realities of three consecutive big field handicaps on Tuesday afternoon will have managed the expectations downwards for all but the savviest of punters.

Day Two will begin with renewed hope, and a slightly fuzzier head... To the races, make haste!

I have strong views on the first three races tomorrow, and no views on the last three.

In the first race, the Ballymore Properties Novices' Hurdle, I'm starting to believe the hype about Noel Meade's alleged wonderhorse, Aran Concerto. He has apparently been beating Pegasus on the gallops, and has the most robust form in the race. At the price (just shy of 2/1), he might not be for everyone, and my ante-post tipple in this heat was (and still is) the Howard Johnson trained Tidal Bay. He's got excellent form, but - right now - the stable have not. I'm not expecting to be collecting on this ticket.

The obvious each way selection against the likely hotpot at the top of the market (and the racecard) is Silverburn. He has a progressive profile and is another who will have been trained to the day by his handler, the Champion trainer Paul Nicholls. At around 6/1, I reckon he's a cast iron each way bet.

The only other two I'll mention here are Duc De Regniere for Nicky H and Philip Hobbs' Massini's Maguire. Much of the form in the race is tied in with Wichita Lineman who, of course, runs later in the week, and both of these have been running creditably with the very best in Britain.

But, to cut a long (rather boring) story short, its Aran Concerto followed by Silverburn for me.

Second heat sees the Royal & Sun Alliance Chase run over 3m and lots of nasty fences, which get in the way for most of the runners. I reckon if the weather continues as it is at the moment, the going will be no worse than good to soft for tomorrow, and that is good news for equine vitality in the Cotswolds.

I say that, because I was fearful that there would be fatalities in this race because of the number of inexperienced horses and the gruelling nature of the race conditions. But I'm now much more optimistic.

From a betting perspective, I make it a(n overly?) simple race. Denman will win, Cailin Alainn will not complete the course, and Dom D'Orgeval will make the frame. A bigger priced horse with a chance is Knowhere who represents good value at 33/1.

For me though, as it has been all season, Denman is a nap of the day bet.

At least he would be on any other day. Because the third leg of Wednesday's placepot extravaganza sees me nominate my nap of the meeting. I hate going public on these things, and I have almost certainly now jinxed his chance, but I cannot see a horse further clear of his rivals than Well Chief is in front of this field.

Two years ago, he was brilliant and breathtaking when up against a still peak condition Moscow Flyer and the wonderful Azertyuiop (named after the top row of keys on a French typewriter keyboard, in case you didn't know! Incidentally, 'typewriter' is the longest word you can type from the keys of a single row on a typewriter, in case you didn't know. I'm great fun to drink with - full of astonishingly pointless anecdotes!).

Back to the story. My point is this. Last year, in the absence of Well Chief and Azertyuiop, and with Moscow Flyer clearly on the wane, Newmill won the race emphatically and without fluke.

He is the second favourite for good reason, though Nickname has realistic claims for the 'Best of the Irish' tag. But these horses are surely not good enough to beat the mighty Well Chief.

His comeback run was very impressive after so long off the track and, should he not bounce (i.e. run poorly after overexerting himself previously), a clear round is surely all that is required.

His trainer has given him a month to recover from the previous race, and he reports the horse in excellent nick. I have bet him like a man, and will win or lose on the week based on the performance of this race.

God help me.

It is fair to say that win or lose, the rest of the card on Wednesday will hold little interest to me. However, in the spirit of even handedness and for those that like to solve Rubik's cubes / Iraqi domestic issues / world peace, poverty and health, lets have a look at the handicaps that follow.

4.00 is the allotted hour for man and money to part for the Coral Cup, with the unlikely possibility of a reunion a short time later. I have to concede to having had a small bet in this race a while ago on an Irish horse. I like Irish horses in the handicap hurdles here. They moan about being badly handicapped and invariably win more than their fair share.

So for me, I've gone for Mister Hight. He is a hardened battler who was once thought to be top class, but failed by a short margin to make the gravy. I'll follow him home with Powerstation, who has Festival placed form (14/1 with Bluesq surely won't last if I've read this race anything like right!). In fact, he's finished second both times he's run at Cheltenham, both times behind a certain Black Jack Ketchum. That form gives him solid chances here.

Lower down the weights, I like Nicky H's pair, Copsale Lad and All Star (both of whom are failed chasers, it should be said, and will love the revertion to smaller things in their way). The former has done TTS no favours this season, having disappointed badly twice in chases and then won a hurdle at a decent price when he didn't qualify for us that day. All Star is a horse I've always had a soft spot for, mainly because he's so inappropriately named! Actually, thats a little unfair. He clearly has talent, and tomorrow might just be his day.

Onwards and downwards we go. Leg 5 of Day Two pits us against a field of two dozen badly ridden horses over big bushes and two dozen furlongs. I am, of course, referring to the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (for Amateur Riders). Any race reserved to these farmers and stable lasses should be enjoyed only for the spectacle of jockeys hailing buses and impersonating mime artists doing knitting while a horse bolts underneath them.

If you want to bet in this race, good luck to you. For me, I shall be going to the bathroom and then getting a round in.

Ok, if forced, forget horse form and look instead at jockeys. Some of these aren't actually too bad, the majority of them are. So find a rider who has some sort of talent. I'd suggest a shortlist of Sam Waley-Cohen, Captain Jamie Snowden (sluiced up on Hoo La Baloo in the Grand Annual on Saturday under a very decent ride), Tom Greenall, Nina Carberry, Richard Burton (now receovered from his ill-fated marriage to Liz Taylor and back in the saddle in more ways than one, haha!), and JJ Codd.

Ok, so looking at the form of their steeds leads me to Liberthine (out of sorts but will have been primed for this); Lou du Moulin Mas; Darby Wall (twice a winner here); Direct Flight (first time out, dodgy jumper, just the type for a race like this!); and Cloudy Lane, trained by Red Rum's son (or something).

I really don't care who wins this, but I'll watching and chuckling as I slurp my way through another pint at what is sure to be a great spectacle, hopefully not for all the wrong reasons. (Just don't come running to me complaining that your horse was given a crap ride: they pretty much all will be!)

Soapbox firmly packed away, and apologies despatched to any farmers / stable lasses in my readership, we'll move onto the Wednesday nightcap, a race with more talking horses than backstage at the Mr Ed auditions. (They just come thick and fast. Well, thick anyway...)

Den of Iniquity for me, largely because that's where I'll be, and I don't have a clue as to the form of the Irish. I've heard whispers for Aranleigh, Sergheyev, Mad Fish and One Gulp.

My advice is to stick to small stakes and save your powder (should you have any left at this point) for the rest of the week. Always remember, Cheltenham is a four day marathon these days, and not a three day sprint.

Best of British (or Irish) to you for tomorrow, and I don't mind you all finding the winners of five of the races as long as I get the winner of one :o)

Matt