3 From 4 Beaten: Bank Vault Report Strikes Again

A two part post today, dear reader. In this post, we'll review yesterday's action before posting today's thoughts and, of course, the Bank Vault Report selections, later.

Yesterday, our first selection, Birkside, was a non-runner, meaning that the first horse we laid was Thinking Positive. He was always well held in second, and never looked like winning.

So, again, the first horse in the sequence was beaten, meaning we now have a profit of £60 on the week, with a maximum liability of £27 (for yesterday's 2.7 favourite).

I sincerely hope that we will have the first horse win once this week, so that I can illustrate the progressive nature of the staking plan!

Incidentally, in terms of confidence factors, two of the other three horses were also beaten, meaning that this week we've got eleven out of fifteen lays correct to date. As I mentioned previously, this gives me a little more comfort that if the first horse does actually win, one (or more) of the animals we've loaded up behind it, will get turned over.

Today's selections will follow later.

As for my backing choices yesterday, well it was a mixed bag. Flying Bantam won nicely, as suggested, at 9/2, which was generous in my opinion. From the highest draw, he was always handy and charged through a split a furlong out. The first four home were drawn 14, 13, 11 and 10 out of 14 runners (and the horse drawn 12 was a non-runner!). The forecast paid £103.02 and the tricast over £500!

Unfortunately for me, I decided to adopt the 'perm high numbers' strategy on the 5 furlong sprint rather than the 7 furlong contest. Bugger! Confoundingly, the winner of this contest was drawn in trap 1!

Trap 1 also won the five furlong race here at the last meeting, and I am certain that the ground staff have done something to the drainage on that part of the track. (The only part the five furlong stretch shares with the other distances is the last furlong and a half or so). The only consistent observation from the two sprint races is that middle draws were clearly unfavoured. The last three home were drawn 7,8,9 of 15.

For now then, we will definitely be avoiding draw biases on the 5f course.

So Beverley yesterday was a case of 'great call, wrong race'!

Onwards and downwards... More later, including today's Bank Vault Report lays, and maybe some more of my own crackpot racing theories. M

Blimey - 5 out of 6 Rolled Over! Day Three Selections

A warm Wednesday welcome dear reader, for it is the middle of the week. :)

Yesterday, the Bank Vault Report managed to get a whopping five out of six lay selections beaten! Alas, we're only supposed to nominate five horses, so we'll exclude the last one and just claim four out of five. ;)

Importantly, from a progression perspective, the first horse yesterday, La Guancha, was a loser, which means - for the second day - there was no staking increment required to cover previous losses on the day.

So after Day Two, we are showing £40 profit and a maximum liability of £27 (what we'd have lost if La Guancha had won, it being a bigger price than the previous day's first selection).

Today's choices are:

15.00 Brig BIRKSIDE @2.0

16.10 Nott THINKING POSITIVE @2.2

16.50 Bev TRIVIA @2.7

19.20 Kemp DOUBLE BILL @2.7

21.00 Leop WESTLAKE @2.3


On the backing front, I managed to get Amanda Carter beaten at Redcar, but my e/w shout High Five Society could only manage 5th at 20/1. Interestingly, the winner (Sir Duke) was having his first handicap run after the obligatory three maiden efforts. These types are always worth noting, as they pop up pretty frequently. The Duke was a tidy 12/1. In fairness, though, I've rarely seen a poorer race.

Up at Chester, and the draw continues to confound me. Trap 8 won the sprint, meaning my box one and two theory went west again.

However, I did call H Harrison's race to the letter, with the horse sitting in behind the speed and quickening in the last furlong to win all out. 7/2 was a surprisingly fat return too.

Today there is racing at Beverley, and one of the strongest draw biases in the country will again be on parade. High numbers are paramount at this track, almost regardless of the distance of the race.

In the 2.50 Flying Bantam has a lot going for him from cage 14 (of 14), and will be tough to beat.

For a fun bet, in the 4.20 (a 5 furlong fillies' handicap - not normally my idea of fun!), I will perm the top four stalls (14-17) in combination exactas and straight forecasts (half stake on each). That's Minimum Fuss (16/1), Violet's Pride (16/1), Muara (6/1) and Princess Cleo (7/1).

Will be nice if it comes off! Small stakes fun wager only though, for sure.

That's all for now.
Matt

A Great Start: Day 2 Bank Vault Report Lays Attached.

Good morning to you, dear reader, and welcome to Day 2 of the Bank Vault Report review.

If you remember from yesterday, we are aiming to win a target £20 per day, using a progressive staking system with horses that are selected by the secret method in the Bank Vault Report.

Yesterday, the first horse lost, which means that we won our £20 with a maximum liability of £23 (the horse, Toi Express, was quoted at 2.3 - the price available at 8 am yesterday - and we'll use the prices quoted in the example for the purposes of the review).

Incidentally, an interesting point to track is how many of the selections get beaten. Although of course we only need one to lose to make our money on the day, it is heartening to see more horses beaten as this gives me more confidence that the role of luck will be only peripheral in the selection process.

Today's selections are as follows:

15.00 Redc LA GUARDIA @2.7

15.55 Sals CAPE VELVET @2.5

15.45 Sals APPLEBY @2.4

16.00 Redc HENRY BERNSTEIN @2.7

18.45 Chest BRASSINI @2.6

21.00 Worc CORNELIUS @2.2

From a backing perspective, again my desire to get the short priced ones beaten has surfaced, and I'm looking to oppose Amanda Carter in the 5.30 at Redcar. She's odds on in a handicap and, although she won well enough last time, there is always value in opposing odds on in handicaps, even if just trying to find a placed horse for an each way tickle.

So let's go each way tickling... it is fair to say that this is a poor race, so small stakes only. But I like the profile of High Five Society. Bred for this kind of trip, and having been contesting slightly better races recently, Paul Eddery's mount might be the type to hit the board at around 16/1. Disappointly for punters here, there are only 15 runners, so no fourth place payout.

Elsewhere, and they race at Chester tonight. Everyone knows about the low draw bias on the Roodeye in sprints, and yet there's still value to be had there. Let's side with the nags berthed one and two, Kings College Boy and Foxy Music respectively.

In the 7.45, over seven furlongs, H Harrison looks to have a great chance. He's likely to be held up just behind what should be a strong gallop and, if the slowing traffic ahead can be negotiated, he may very well win again. 11/4 to looks pretty fair value to me.

Good luck today, more from me tomorrow.
Matt