Goodwood on the Turn…
There is a strong draw bias, favouring horses drawn middle
to high, and I’ve found a way to exploit that. The criteria are pretty simple
and are as follows:
Round
course only (i.e. NOT the straight track)
2 or
3 year olds only
Drawn
in the top 40% of the stalls (e.g. 10-15 in 15 runner race)
Favourite
in the betting
Good
ground or faster
Just by applying these simple criteria, you'd have won 107 out of 274
bets since 1997, and returned a tidy 57.14 points profit. That's over a grand
for £20 stakes on a strike rate of about almost 40%.
|
YEAR |
WINS |
RUNS |
STRIKE% |
LSP |
LSP% |
VSP% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1997 |
8 |
20 |
40 |
6.12 |
30.6 |
30.74 |
|
1998 |
13 |
26 |
50 |
15.93 |
61.27 |
39.19 |
|
1999 |
12 |
25 |
48 |
6.01 |
24.04 |
30.87 |
|
2000 |
7 |
24 |
29.17 |
-3.95 |
-16.46 |
-8.15 |
|
2001 |
15 |
36 |
41.67 |
6.37 |
17.69 |
17.76 |
|
2002 |
8 |
24 |
33.33 |
-2.02 |
-8.42 |
7.37 |
|
2003 |
17 |
40 |
42.5 |
15.35 |
38.37 |
8.35 |
|
2004 |
12 |
32 |
37.5 |
11.66 |
36.44 |
21.46 |
|
2005 |
9 |
27 |
33.33 |
3.33 |
12.33 |
25.77 |
|
2006 |
6 |
20 |
30 |
-1.66 |
-8.3 |
-11.87 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
107 |
274 |
39.05 |
57.14 |
20.85 |
17.05 |