Two Year Olds With
Experience…
At this time of year, there are a lot of races where the
betting market is formed on opinions and reputations, rather than collateral
form. I am primarily referring to two year old races here, as opposed to
seasonal debutantes who may have improved / regressed since the previous
season.
One element is more important than any other when betting 2yo's: the
benefit of previous experience. So many horses are having their first sight of
a racetrack, their first feel of the whip, their first listen to the noise, and
so on...
A simple analysis of this has identified a lucrative niche for
betting 2yo's on their second start early in the season (April to June).
As I tend to do, I strip out the fillies and concentrate on colts
and geldings (male horses). The criteria are as follows:
2
year old males only
Having
second career start
Didn't
win on their first start
Second
favourite in the betting
April
to June only
Just by applying these simple criteria, you'd have won 96 out of 315
bets since 1998, and returned a tidy 94.86 points profit. That's around two
grand for £20 stakes on a strike rate of over 30%.
|
YEAR |
WINS |
RUNS |
STRIKE% |
LSP |
LSP% |
VSP% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1998 |
7 |
28 |
25 |
2.75 |
9.82 |
17.05 |
|
1999 |
29 |
27.59 |
8.83 |
30.45 |
22.08 |
|
|
2000 |
9 |
24 |
37.5 |
15.83 |
65.96 |
65.04 |
|
2001 |
10 |
33 |
30.3 |
9.83 |
29.79 |
34.84 |
|
2002 |
14 |
38 |
36.84 |
20.75 |
54.61 |
59.54 |
|
2003 |
9 |
38 |
23.68 |
-1.25 |
-3.29 |
4.66 |
|
2004 |
16 |
49 |
32.65 |
17.33 |
35.37 |
48.03 |
|
2005 |
11 |
39 |
28.21 |
7.58 |
19.44 |
28.84 |
|
2006 |
12 |
37 |
32.43 |
13.21 |
35.7 |
33.21 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TOTAL |
WINS |
RUNS |
STRIKE% |
LSP |
LSP% |
VSP% |
|
|
96 |
315 |
30.48 |
94.86 |
30.11 |
34.94 |