New site...

Exciting news here at Nag3 as the new site that I have been working on for the past month and a bit is nearly ready for use. It's taken a lot longer than I had hoped but that's mainly (probably entirely) due to my very limited understanding of the technical side of computing.

If you want to have a look at the new look layout then click below...

http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/

and have a little play around with the tabs etc...

You'll notice that very few of the links are working yet but I'll be adding the content to these over the weekend and we'll have a grand opening on Monday. Until then, if you wish to read my blog postings you can continue to use this web address.

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BBB for JUNE

Last night's draw saw number 46 pop out as the bonus ball.
I'm now sifting through over 400 emails to find all the lucky winners who will share the £250 prize fund for last month.

I'll hopefully be able to notify the winners on Saturday and get the cheque(s) out next week.

In the unlikely event of no-one having selected number 46 the cash will rollover to this month. Details of this month's BBB will be in Saturday's Post

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The DRAW

Just a quick follow up to the posts earlier in the week regarding the draw bias for certain races and why the position of your horse in the stalls does have an affect on its performance.

- On certain racecourses the drainage of the track sometimes means that different parts can experience different ground conditions and therefore favours one side or the other. In extreme conditions it can mean the difference between your horse racing in heavy going or soft going simply by where your horse is drawn.

-If there is a bend to negotiate early on in the race then those drawn on the outside are forced to run wider than the rest of the field and therefore have to run further than those drawn to the inside. This can be particularly hard for those who need to race from the front as they will need to use up valuable energy early on to achieve their favoured position.

Which leads me on to the next point and the question....

'Just how much further does an outside stall have to run?'

Taking our example from the other day, The Cesarewitch, we have a field that is generally around the 30 runner mark. I've no idea how wide each stall is but I would imagine it must be about 3 feet or 1 yard across meaning the horse drawn in stall 1 is 30 yards from the rail.

Now in the Cesarewitch the field have one right hand bend to negotiate after travelling about a mile so those drawn low have no option but to track over to the far rail to join the rest of the runners.

Having studied last years race the field went straight for around 50 yards then headed for the far rail with all the runners having assuming their racing position well before the first furlong had been run. So we can say within 150 yards of leaving the stalls.

Now it's time to go back to school for the dreaded algebra as we apply some simply maths to find out the relative distances run by the horses drawn 1 and 30 .

Where side A is the row of stalls (30 yards) and Side B the running rail (100 yards). Side C is the distance the horse drawn 1 has to run to join up with the rest of the field.

To help us calculate side C we simply use Pythagorus who tells us that side c = the square root of (the sum of side A squared + side B squared) or C = Square Root of (900 + 10000)

Which is 104.4 yards

So as long as the horse drawn in stall 30 keeps in a straight line he simply runs 100 yards whereas to get to the same point the horse drawn in stall 1 has to run 104.4 yards.

Which is quite a bit of a difference when you consider that races can be decided by inches.

Good Luck,

Gavin.

Affect of the draw. Discuss.....

It seems that my post yesterday, concerning the draw, has raised a few hackles and got something of a debate raging. Which is all good and very welcome. (Please feel free to add your say on the matter by leaving a comment at the end of this post or send me an email to gavin@nag-nag-nag.co.uk)

Basically, there are a few readers (maybe even more who haven't emailed) that don't believe the draw has an affect on the outcome of a long distance race.

Well, of course everyone is entitled to their opinion and they may be right but I personally firmly believe that in certain races it can affect the result.

The example I used yesterday was the Totesport Mile which is run over Goodwood's turning mile and the results of recent years has proved that the draw has a dramatic affect on the race result. Horses drawn low simply don't win this race.

You may agree with me on that one but struggle with the concept that a race run over mile and a half or even 2 miles+ could possibly be affected by the draw simply on the basis that over that kind of extended distance all horses will have plenty of time to sort themselves out and adopt their favoured running position.

Which in some races, on some courses over some distances is true. I'm not claiming that in every long distance race there is a draw bias but what I am claiming is that in certain long distance races run at certain tracks there is a definite advantage and disadvantage in where your horse is drawn.

As an example let's take a look at what is regarded as possibly the fairest track in the country, Newmarket's Rowley Mile course, and one of the longest distance handicaps run all season, The Cesarewitch. The horses in this race run for 2m 2f in a straight (ish) line with just one bend to navigate at the 10f pole and they only have to pass the post once i.e. when they finish.

This must be the fairest long distance race of them all. Or so you'd think......

Yet for the last 20 years, at least, the draw has played a major part in the outcome of the Cesarewitch. Take a look at the draw positions for the first 4 home since 1990.....

2008 11-32-28-14 (32) 2007 23-28-26-1 (33) 2006 29-32-11-20 (31) 2005 28-1-4-11 (34) 2004 18-12-32-19 (34) 2003 36-18-12-19 (36) 2002 36-35-29-1 (36) 2001 32-19-31-30 (31) 2000 18-6-20-21 (33) 1999 17-19-21-15 (32) 1998 19-22-18-4 (29) 1997 6-15-24-16 (31) 1996 15-13-26-3 (26) 1995 18-21-14-2 (21) 1994 28-25-15-12 (32) 1993 21-30-23-9 (31) 1992 10-3-18-20 (24) 1991 14-3-19-8 (22) 1990 16-24-10-22 (25)

- The winner has come from the top half of the draw for 16 of the last 19 runnings of the Cesarewitch.
- Only 1 horse has won in the last 19 years from a single figure draw.
- Only 13 horses from the 76 win and places came from a single figure draw.

I think it's pretty clear from these figures that those drawn in a low numbered stall have a serious disadvantage even though the race is run over 2 miles and a quarter.

It's back to school in tomorrow's post I'll be looking at a number of reasons, including algebra, as to why the draw may influence the result in such a long distance race.

Good luck,

Gavin.

Weekend round-up....

Five things I've learnt this weekend....

1) The draw can be just as important in long distance races as it is in sprints....

Saturday's 2 mile Northumberland Plate was the perfect example of how the draw can play a major part in deciding a race even over extreme distances with the first 4 home being drawn 4,2, 3 and 5. With the first bend coming quite soon after the stalls open it gives those drawn low a big advantage as they can assume a good position and are not forced to race wide like the rest of the field. Unfortunately, the low number that is missing, stall 1, housed my ante-post selection The Betchworth Kid but I did say that the winner would run well if getting soft ground and allowed to lead. It got both and my saver bet did the job and saved the day.

2) Mick Channon has obviously only recently started reading this blog......

as I have been saying for a while now that when Som Tala is allowed to race from the front he will show an improvement in form. If Mr Channon had started reading my thoughts back in May he could well have won the Chester Cup, Ascot Stakes and the Northumberland Plate. Ah well, better late than never Mick.

3) Clerks of the courses have no respect for the average punter....

How else can you explain the diabolical decision by Folkestones COC to water only half the track in an attempt to neutralise the affect of the draw bias. For Friday's evening meeting, according to the penetrometer readings it was 9.8 on the far side and 8.6 on the stands side giving a much faster racing surface on the far side. If any of you backed the red hot favourite George Baker in the first race you now know why you didn't win. With two very different goings on either side of the racecourse he was simply handicapped by racing on the wrong side. I'm sure owner Harry Findlay had something to say about that!

Of the 4 that raced on the now favoured far side they filled 3 of the top 4 positions at odds of 25/1, 66/1 and 66/1.

If they're so bothered by the draw bias why don't they simply position the stalls on the far side of the track?

4) Fame and Glory should have won the Derby...

I'm sure that this will split readers into two camps but I firmly believe that if Aiden O'Brien had used the same tactics that he employed in yesterday's Irish Derby at Epsom then we would have seen Fame and Glory beat Sea The Stars. He was a brilliant winner yesterday and coming from off a strong gallop really suited his style of racing. If the Epsom one-two should meet again before the end of the season then I will be firmly in the Fame and Glory camp and be placing a very large wager to back up my belief.

5) Look Here was a very worthy winner of last year's Oaks...

and she will win a big prize before the end of the year. She ran a fine race in the Coronation Cup and on Saturday over a trip a bit short of her best she again ran very well and came out of the race with great credit. I'm sure that connections are eyeing up a trip to Santa Anita in the Autumn and with America's Rachael Alexander looking likely to miss the meeting the Fillies and Mares looks just the job for her.

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While we're on the subject of the draw, there is a race coming up at Glorious Goodwood that is probably more dependent on the draw than any other race run all year. It's the Totesport Mile and basically if you're drawn low then you may as well stay at home.

The first 5 home last year were drawn 20,19,18,17 and 16! In that order.

In 2007 it was 20,14,13 (20 ran). In 2006 16 and 15 (17 ran). In 2005 16 and 13 (18 ran), 2004 20 of 21, 2003 22 of 21, 2002 21 of 21, 2001 19 of 21 and 2000 18 of 22

The reason for this anomaly is that the Mile race is run on the round course and runners are turning almost immediately after leaving the stalls. After the final bend is negotiated the camber of the track starts to take affect forcing those who are running wide to the inside rail.

DO NOT EVEN CONSIDER BETTING ON THIS RACE ANTE-POST unless you have a crystal ball that is able to predict the draw.

And once you know the draw simply look to those drawn in the 5 highest stalls to find the winner...simples!

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SPEEDWAY MONDAY FUN

Not the most exciting sport in my book with the one who gets out the traps the fastest usually winning but Saturdays British Grand Prix at the Millennium stadium had a bit more entertainment value thanks to these two having a bit of a disagreement....

Gavin.

Big race fancy.....

I was going to wait until tomorrow before revealing my selection for Saturday's big race but I have a feeling it's going to be punted so if there is anyone interested in backing my fancy I'd advise taking the early price of 20/1 before it disappears.....

NORTHUMBERLAND PLATE

It's Newcastle's biggest meeting of the year tomorrow and I've got one last free bet voucher to use for our Bonus Ball fund.

There are 3 horses in the race that interest me the most and they are...

Som Tala. He ran a fair 5th in the Ascot Stakes and appreciated the return to racing up with the pace. I'd like to see him go one step further and try to make all and from the 4 box he'll have every opportunity to do so. With the trip and track sure to suit him and a nice racing weight he looks value at around 25/1. Any easing in the ground would also help his chances.

Judgethemoment. From a trends point of view he has the best profile of any horse in the field and he was a game winner of the Ascot Stakes last time out. However, he does have a tough draw to overcome and as one who likes to race up with the pace this could prove troublesome. An out and out stayer he's sure to appreciate the trip and if it wasn't for the draw he would be an extremely confident selection.

Which leaves me siding with the third of my 3 fancies for our BBB and he is a horse I'm extremely confident will give us a big run at a big price.

The Betchworth Kid. Michael Bell's 4yo has been competing in some pretty decent Listed races of late without being totally disgraced and has proved a model of consistency throughout his career with 14 win and placed efforts from 20 starts. He is another with a good trends profile and also has some excellent form in big field handicaps with a 2nd of 21 in the Doncaster November Handicap amongst his runs. That run was off a mark of 97 and tomorrow he will be racing off 100 but with the jockey able to claim 5lb he is actually slightly better off and it's interesting to note that Bell won this race two years ago with a very similar type, Juniper Girl. The Betchworth Kid has everything in his favour and he seems to go on all types of ground so, granted luck in running (this is always a rough race), I'm very confident of a big run.

My advice is to back him each way and take the 20/1.

BBB £20 ew The Betchworth Kid at 20/1

PLUS

£1 Combination Forecast and Tricast

Som Tala, The Betchworth Kid and Judgethemoment

Good luck,

Gavin.

Royal Ascot final reflections....

A final look at last weeks Royal Ascot meeting before banishing the whole sorry episode to the back of my mind.

My 5 Best winners of the meeting....

1) CANFORD CLIFFS (COVENTRY) His 6 length demolition of a decent looking bunch of 2yo colts was about the best 2yo performance I've seen since Arazi won the Breeders Cup Juvenile. Hugely impressive.

2) FORGOTTEN VOICE (HUNT CUP) They said he was a Group horse running in a handicap and on this showing they could well be right.

3) MASTERCRAFTSMAN (St. JAMES PALACE) His wasn't the biggest margin of victory we saw all week but it must have been the gutsiest. The way he fought back when Delegator came alongside to challenge was a joy to see and it looks like Aiden O'Brien has another 'Iron Horse' on his hands. He has also won on a variety of ground from Good / Firm to Heavy and looks a true star in the making.

4) HOLBERG (QUEENS VASE) He ran out a convincing 4 length winner and was obviously impressive but what I liked about this performance was the way he quickened up and won going away from the field. It seems the 2 mile trip was right up his street and he should make up into a nice cup horse for next year.

5) JEALOUS AGAIN (QUEEN MARY) Not many people were paying attention to the American horses at the beginning of the week but after this breathtaking run from Wesley Ward's filly that certainly changed. Sprinting 4 lengths clear at the two furlong pole she showed terrific speed to remain clear of the field right up to the line. After Ward's success last week I would imagine there'll be a few more American trained horses running at Ascot next year.

and my favourite moment of the entire meeting.....

Forget Yeats, my personal favourite moment has to be Henry Cecil winning again at Royal Ascot. I fancied Native Ruler more than the winner but it was still great to see Henry back in the winners enclosure at the Royal meeting. Father Time hadn't looked that straightforward of rides previous to this victory but I think a step up in trip may bring about even more improvement in him and the St Leger looks the obvious target to me.

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PUNTERS HIT IN THE POCKET AGAIN

In Matt's post yesterday on his Geegeez blog he was fairly critical of the Racing Post for their plan to charge it's readers access to the majority of content on their website. I have to agree that this is a major disappointment and depending on how much they decide to charge it could lead to a lot of disgruntlement from angry customers.

But I think a far greater worry is the new pricing structure that Racing UK have now implemented due to the collapse of sports satellite Setanta. Before the Irish company went into receivership you could buy the complete Setanta package for £12 a month and this included all their sports channels and the all important Racing UK.

Football, golf, rugby and racing were all covered for the one price and represented pretty good value considering the content. Now however with RUK forced to go it alone as a separate channel they want to charge you £20 for the privilege of receiving just their racing coverage.

I doubt it's just me that sees this as representing a giant step backwards and one that will not go down very well with any of their subscribers. Apparently this £20 includes a compulsory charge of £9.99 to cover the cost of accessing their online site but I really think they should reconsider this strategy and continue charging separately to those customers who wish to take either of the services available. Not everybody wants to use their online site and charging customers for something they don't need, want or use has never been good business practice.

Obviously being a stand alone channel is going to have added costs compared to being under the umbrella of a larger satellite company but £10 for the satellite racing channel seems a fair price to me considering we have now lost a lot of other sports content. If this isn't financially viable then I think they may need to take a leaf out of the free-to-air AtTheRaces book and copy their business model or even, dare I say it, consider merging the two companies. I think this will eventually happen anyway but that's a discussion for another day....

All in all though, it's been a bad few days for the wallets and purses of us racing fans.

Good luck,

Gavin.

Royal Ascot reflections Part 1

It was a week I'd rather forget and one which ranks as probably the worst punting experiences I've ever had but there's no denying this years Royal Ascot had everything you could ask for from a horse race meeting. Here are a few of my favourite highlights (and lowlights) from the week.....

The Graham Taylor award for the worst tactics of the week....

It has to be Godolphin for the shambles of their race riding tactics in the Queen Anne. First they put Frankie, the King of Ascot, on their second string before handing the ride on the highest rated horse in the world to the youngster Ahmed Ajtebi. If that wasn't baffling enough he then rides Gladiatorus as a pacemaker and sets off like he's being chased by the devil himself.

My race riding skills only extend to playing G1 Jockey on my son's Wii but even I could see that pushing your horse to be 5 lengths clear of the field on a straight course isn't a good idea. I would say that, for me, it was the worst ride I have ever seen in a Group 1 race (and that includes Greville Starkey on Dancing Brave in the Derby)

The Biggest Flop of the week (sponsored by Viagra)...

It has to be Gladiatorus again as he just ran so badly for such a well fancied runner. Maybe winning easily out of season in Dubai isn't a true reflection of the horses ability and his rating needs adjusting accordingly or maybe he just had a bad day due to the way he was ridden. I guess we'll find out next time he runs.

A close second would be Doctor Freemantle who ran as the betting suggested he would i.e. badly. The bookmakers couldn't give him away and even though he had some very smart form in the book he was never in contention and was very disappointing.

The Robert De Niro best gangster look of the week....

No contest here with Aiden O'Brien winning hands down for having his sunglasses glued to his head for the entire meeting. I sat there open mouthed as he went up to collect the trophy for Mastercraftsman from the Queen as he still had his sunglasses on as he mounted the platform. With just a couple of strides to go he suddenly remembered and took them off just as he approached Her Majesty. Aiden you are a great trainer but top hat and tails with a pair of dark sunglasses just isn't cool.

The Katie Price (aka Jordan) worst lay of the week...

Unfortunately, as it turned out I completely mis-read the opening race of the meeting and, setting the tone for the rest of the week, I did my proverbials by laying Paco Boy. It's time to admit I was wrong and say that Paco Boy does stay a mile and looks a very tough, genuine and reliable Group 1 horse.

The Methuselah old timer award...

The race may be the weakest of the meeting and run over an extreme distance for a flat race but for the 12yo Caracciola to win as he did was simply amazing. When he won at York the time before he became the oldest horse to win a Listed race and with this new success he now becomes the oldest horse to ever win at Royal Ascot. Talk of a trip for the Melbourne Cup may be aiming a bit high but he has proved himself a very versatile horse and a grand servant for his owner and trainer. He'll just have to hope Yeats isn't kept in training until he's that age.

More tomorrow....

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Bonus Ball Prizepool

Good old 'Enry pulled us out of the hole and we now have a very tidy looking £237.50 in the BBB prize fund. I thought his Twice Over was very unlucky to be run out of a place and our each way bet go down but I'm sure he'll win a Group 1 race some time soon and we'll get our money back.

There is one more attempt left to add even more to the fund and I have a really nice bet lined up for the Northumberland Plate on Saturday.

Good luck,

Gavin.

Royal Ascot Day 4...

Things are going from bad to worse as my horses continue to be beaten. I thought I'd pulled it out of the fire yesterday when Jamie Spencer started his run on Secret Society. A furlong out there was nothing going better and I was getting quite excited but as has been the norm this week he was denied by the faster finishing Fareer and it just added to my list of big priced placed horses.

I've now had a 33/1 third, 25/1 third, 22/1 second, 20/1 second, 12/1 second, 12/1 third and a 9/1 third. Surely I must get a winner before the end of the week?

As if that wasn't enough my Placepot went down on the last leg despite having 4 horses running for me and the £3500 dividend certainly hasn't helped my mood any.

What with cackling Willie Carson, the awful Wiltshire / Parrott double act and all these losers this is fast becoming my least favourite Royal Ascot ever.

In fact the only thing that has made me smile all week was when I saw the ludicrous hat that Princess Eugene was wearing yesterday. It look liked a luminous green Sky satellite dish and the way it was perched on the front of her head looked as if she was trying to get reception for the At The Races satellite channel. All that money and still no style.

On to today and Henry has three Royal runners...

2.30 CHACHAMAIDEE £20 E/W

3.05 FATHER TIME £10 E/W

3.05 NATIVE RULER £20

We finally got some cash into the prize-fund yesterday when Henry's Flame of Gibraltar ran a fine race to finish second at 12/1. Here's hoping we can get a few more quid in the pot today.

Good luck,

Gavin.

ROYAL ASCOT DAY 3

D:Ream got it wrong as I can definitely say 'Things have not got any better' and my love affair with Royal Ascot is now at breaking point.

Paco's Boy wins a Group 1 mile, the favourite wins the Hunt Cup, the Australians win the sprints, the Yanks win the 2yo's, The Irish and French win the Group 1's and I, like Godolphin, win nothing.

Desperate times call for desperate measures! .

Our 'Enry was a bit unlucky today with Twice Over as he looked a sure thing for the frame 1/2 furlong out but obviously as with most good each way bets he weakened and finished 4th to deny us our place money.

He has three runners today and we're going large to try and get some money in the BBB pot....

£20ew FLAME OF GIBRALTAR 3.05 ASCOT

£20ew HYADES 4.20 ASCOT

£20ew ON OUR WAY 4.55 ASCOT

plus a £1ew Patent

and £16 on the Queen to wear a Green hat on Ladies Day. (I told you times were desperate!)

Surely we can get something out of that little lot.....

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ASCOT GOLD CUP

The big race of the day is the Gold Cup and according to the trends 8yo's can't win this race. If that is true then the first two in the betting are in trouble. If you also take into account the poor form of the Godolphin horses then 4 of the first 5 in the betting can be ignored. This leaves you with a few choices...

1) Patkai is a good thing and will win - probable
2) The winner will defy a long-standing trend - possible
3) There will be a shock result – not impossible
4) Godolphin will strike form and win the Gold Cup - unlikely

The trends say 1 & 2 can't happen, the bookmakers and punters reckon 3 won't occur and I can't see number 4 happening either.

I don't like this race at all and will expect the unexpected.

Good luck,

Gavin.

Royal Ascot, Day 2.....

Oh dear, what a disaster!

My day didn't start off too well when my son had all the milk before I got up and I couldn't have my daily bowl of Rice Krispies. I'm never at my best when I've not had my snap, crackle and pop in the morning.

Things went from bad to worse when all my horses run unplaced and the horse I put up as a lay went and won the first.

I then thought things had turned back again by getting the Placepot up at Ascot and was delighted to see it pay nearly £4ooo but when I checked my ticket I remembered I had changed my mind at the last minute and put Main Aim in instead of Paco Boy (and that was the only leg I went down in).

And then 10 minutes ago in a bid to take my mind off things I had a quick game of poker. And quick it was as I got knocked out on the very first hand when my pair of Aces got beaten by a pair of Kings.

But that's not even the worst of it. I foolishly promised all the punters in my betting shop that I'd run around Trecco Bay Holiday Park in my boxer shorts if Paco Boy won the Queen Anne. So if you here on the news of anyone being carted off by the police on a South Wales caravan site, it's probably me. I just hope it's not raining tomorrow.

As D:Ream once famously sang, 'Things, can only get better...'

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It's seems I'm destined not to be able to get this BB Prizepool up to a decent amount. But I'm going to keep trying and for today I'm going to put all our eggs in one basket and hope Henry can get us out of trouble with....

£25 each way Twice Over 3.45pm Ascot

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Staking Plans

Just a quick note to clear something up regarding the staking plans I covered last week....

I only used Spotlight selections for an example of how the staking plans would work and they were never intended to be used as tips for you to back. I gave enough losers out myself last week without adding to your misery with someone else's.

Apparently, a few readers have been blindly backing the horses and losing money. Obviously I'm sorry this has happened but I think I made it quite clear in my posts that they were being used solely as an independent source of results data.

I just hope you didn't use the Labouchere staking plan to back them....

Good luck,

Gavin.

ASCOT DAY 1

It's here at last, my favourite meeting of the year. I like Cheltenham, I like Aintree but I love Royal Ascot. The results have been kind to me over the years and I'm hoping I can continue that winning feeling this year too.
I even managed to tip the colour of the Queens hat on this blog last year! For those who are interested, this year on Ladies day it will be Green.

BONUS BALL BETS

As I promised on Saturday I'll be placing a series of bets this week at the Royal Meeting to try and boost the Prize Pool for all of you readers you were kind enough to enter the Classic Double BBB. Henry Cecil doesn't have any runners on the Tuesday but we'll be backing all of his for the rest of the week. Today I've come up with a few outsiders to try and boost the kitty....

And before anyone emails in to have a moan, yes I know these are different to the Trends Selections in my guide but these are the horses I would back if I wasn't restrained by picking my horses solely on past results. They are solely my attempt to boost the BB funds.

As always do what you like with them...back them, lay them or ignore them!

Queen Anne 2.30

It may be a Group 1 race but only two horses have won at the level before. There is however another runner who in his younger days ran a fine second in this highest of grades and at 66/1 might be worth a little each way dabble. He's in form, will be staying on well and I'd much rather back him than Aqlaam!

MAC LOVE will be the first bet £2.50ew at 66/1

Kings Stand 3.05

He did me a big favour at Newmarket so for old times sake I'll go with him here...

AMOUR PROPRE £10 win

St James Palace 3.45

I backed the next one a few times last season but could never catch him when he did win. He probably won't beat Mastercraftsman tomorrow but he might nick a place and at 20/1 that wouldn't be too bad...

SOUL CITY £5ew 20/1

Coventry Stakes 4.20

We went with this one in the National Stakes at Sandown in our recent trends guide but he could only finish 3rd that day. He was however staying on very strongly that night and is sure to appreciate the 6f here. Another big priced runner ...

RAINES CROSS £5ew 20/1

Ascot Stakes 4.55

If Som Tala is ridden from, or near, the front I think we'll see a change in recent fortunes for him. All of his best form has been when he has been ridden this way so come on Frankie, kick on!

SOM TALA £5ew 12/1

Windsor Castle 5.30

This is a tough race! We'll have another little speculative bet on a big outsider..

ITSTHURSDAYALREADY £5ew 20/1

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5 to lay?

For those of you who prefer to lay the horses rather than back them here are five horses that I think will get beat this week.

Queen Anne (Tuesday 2.30pm). Paco Boy

I just can't see him staying the mile in what is probably going to be a fiercely run race. With Gladiatorus surely doing his usual thing upfront this race could well be over by the furlong pole and Paco Boy will be hard pressed to lay down any sort of a challenge.

Gold Cup (Thursday 3.45pm) Yeats and Geordieland

They have filled the first two places in the Gold Cup for the last two years but it's not looking good for either of them this time around. You would have to go back all the way to 1900 to find the last 8yo to win the Gold Cup and that's a pretty big stat. 13 have tried, and failed, in the last 10 years alone. Mind you, you had to go about that far back to find the last French Bred to win the Grand National and we all know what happened to that stat!

Hampton Court Stakes (Thursday 4.55pm). Glass Harmonium.

This race will never be top of Sir Michael Stoute's list of favoured contests because in the last 10 years he has provided 3 x favs, 2 x 2nd favs and a 3rd fav and all were beaten including last year's favourite Kensington Oval. You have to admire him for having another go but the omens don't look good for this one.

Coronation Stakes (Friday 3.45pm) Elusive Wave

Placed horses from the French 1000 Guineas have a fairly decent record in the Coronation Stakes but that's not the case when it comes to the winner as all 7 to have run here in the last 14 years have been beaten.

Again, do what you like with them. Lay them, back them or ignore them.

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Trends Guide

And if all that's still not enough to satisfy your Royal Ascot Cravings then there's still plenty of time left to get your copy of the Royal Ascot Trends Guide.

If you don't fancy forking out for the full guide then there's also the choice of purchasing a special guide for each seperate day at just £9.95.

Simply click below to purchase....

>>> Click here for ROYAL ASCOT FESTIVAL TRENDS

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Staking Plans

After yesterday's set of results (2/1, loser, loser, loser, loser, loser) we'll have a final look at how it affected each of the staking plans before putting them to one side while we concentrate on the little matter of Royal Ascot.

Level Stakes

Starting bank £8849

6 bets of £100 for a return of £300

Finishing bank is £8549

Square Root Level Stakes

We start off at £8798 and our first bet is a £100 on a 2/1 winner but this isn't enough to get us back in profit so our stakes remain at £100

Finishing bank is £8498

Fibonacci

The bank is down to £6649 but we start with £200 on a 2/1 winner.

Unfortunately the next 5 bets lose with stakes of

£100, £100, £200, £300 & £500 meaning even more trouble for the system

Finishing bank is £5849

Reverse Labouchere

We start with £8586 and a £105 first bet which wins at 2/1

Adding the 7 to the end of the chain our next bet becomes £135, which loses, and is followed by

£120 bet on a loser

£60 bet on a loser and the end of the chain again. Starting the sequence back up we stake

£105 loser

£105 loser

finishing the day with a bank of

£8271 our next stake is £105 and the chain is x-x-3-4-x-x

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Good luck,

Gavin.

Staking Plan Day 3 & 4

It seems spotlight in the Racing Post carried on where he left off on Friday as he managed another 5 losers (+ 2 non runners) yesterday to go with the 5 from the day before.

At least it will show how well (or badly!) each staking plan is able to cope with such a losing run.

LEVEL STAKES

Starting bank £9849. All bets £100
10 losers means -£1000
making the bank £8849


SQUARE ROOT STAKING PLAN

Starting bank £9798. Next bet £100
As we remain under the £10000 initial bank all losers are for £100 meaning the loss over the two days is also £1000
The bank is now at £8798


FIBONACCI

Uh oh, I smell trouble...
Starting bank is £10,149 and our first bet for Friday is £500
It lost as did the next with £800 riding on it.
That's the end of our the chain so it's time to lick our wounds and go back to the start...
£100 loser
£100 loser
£200 loser
Onto Saturday
£300 loser
£500 loser £800 loser

Another chain completed without success. Back to the beginning
£100 loser
£100 loser

Gulp! The bank is now at £6649 and our next bet is £200


If you thought that was bad, here comes the....

LABOUCHERE PLAN

We start off with £8734, a first bet of £675 and a very long chain (and about to get a whole lot bigger) that looks like x-x-x-x-x-x-7-10-x-x-17-24-31-38
£675 loser
£780 loser
£885 loser
£990 loser
£1095 los.....Where's that shotgun........BANG!

Time to knock the Labouchere on the head, it doesn't work backing these bigger priced horses while using this staking plan as it relies on a much better strike rate than we are able to achieve.

So if that isn't working then surely the...

REVERSE LABOUCHERE must be?

Er no. As both systems were designed for betting on even money chances the theory was that if the original Labouchere plan is failing then doing the opposite would surely succeed. Which does sound logical but unfortunately we're not dealing with even money shots here and until we get a winner we can't see how backing at bigger odds will affect this particular staking plan.

But one of the things that the Reverse Labouchere was created for was that it sets out to try and limit your losses when these bad runs come along. So let's see if it can do that.....

Starting bank £9636 and a first bet of the day of £105. The chain of numbers is at the start i.e. 1-2-3-4-5-6
£105 loser
£105 loser
£105 loser
reset the chain
£105 loser
£105 loser
£105 loser
reset the chain
£105 loser
£105 loser
£105 loser
reset the chain
£105 loser
Loss of £1050

Bad, but not much worse than the Level Stakes and it has limited the losses like it intended to.
Finishing bank £8586
Next bet £105
Chain x-2-3-4-5-x

Today's Spotlight selections from Salisbury;
It's a Date, Esteem Machine, Sunceleb, Diana's Choice, Volochvoka and Broughtons Paradis

Gavin.

BBB News.....

BONUS BALL BET

Oh dear! After last week's unsuccessful Classic double (close but no cigar) and a complete blowout from our other horses we're left staring at an empty pot for this month's Bonus Ball Prizefund.

But fear not! For all those of you (and there were hundreds of you) who sent in a number for a share of our double attempt last week I've got another cunning plan to boost our bonus ball betting bank. I've gone a bit mad and signed up for just about every betting site on the internet and now have a wheelbarrow full of Free betting vouchers.

My aim is now to use these free bets over the 5 days of Ascot and get some money into the pot. I'll be doing every one of Henry Cecils runners at the meeting and picking two horses a day to put some cash on. The stakes will be decided once I've counted up how much I've got to punt with.

Any returns from these special Ascot bets will only be available to those readers who emailed their guess in time to qualify for the Classic Double last week i.e. before 7.30pm last Saturday.

You can still enter the competition for this month but you if you win you will only share the Saturday BBB winnings.

Okay, I hope that's clear. Here are today's Saturday BB Bets....

A trends based look at the 3.10 York

12 of the last 13 winners ran within the last month so we lose...
Favourite Girl (35),Masterofdisguise (50),Dark Mischief (41),Lucky Numbers (36),The Kyllachy Kid (37),Kingswinford (35) & Gone Hunting (77)

12/13 had 4 or more career runs so we lose....
Macdillon

As 12/13 carried 9st or less we lose ....
Proclaim,Thunderous Mood,Akhenaten & Swiss Diva

And 12/13 ran in a h'cap last time meaning we now lose
Imperial Guest & Prime Mood

12/13 ran in a sprint (5or6f) last time....
Quanah Parker, Definightly & Parisian Pyramid didn't

11/13 made top 5 last time.
We lose Rawayton

and are left with 2 Sloop Johnb & Coleorton Choice,

With 9/13 winners running from the front or prominent and Coleorton Choice a confirmed front runner plus Sloop Johnb's only 2 attempts at 6F seeing him finish 9/10 & 10/16 we'll go with the former and make the likeliest trends winner Coleorton Choice.

3.10 York Selection: Coleorton Choice

My thanks to Gary for the following 2 selections....

4.00 Sandown
Despite 6 '0's in his form there are plenty of reasons for thinking Blessed Place can instigate a revival of fortunes today. His 3 runs this season have all been at 6F on fast ground but today he encounters 5F on a softish surface which are his ideal conditions. He also has the tongue tie back on for the first time this season and is reunited with B.Clay who has won on him twice. His last win was over this C & D and drawn in stall 12 means this confirmed front runner can grab the far rail.
Selection: Blessed Place

2.20 Sandown

Although she's not won since her debut Maggie Lou looks to be well handicapped and sure to appreciate this stiffer test. Ridden for the first time today by A.Munro she should improve on her staying on 4th at Haydock last time and given that she has already won on softish ground and the manner in which she stayed on last time, this stiff 7F suggests that she could be a nice each way wager.
Selection: Maggie Lou

Well do 3 x £2.50ew Singles and a 50pew Patent

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Staking plans.

I'm a bit pushed for time today as I have my son's School Fete to attend so I will go through both yesterdays results (5 losers for Spotlight of the Racing Post!) and todays runners in a special Sunday post.

We'll stick with Spotlight at York where he's gone for...
Hillview Boy, Acrosstic, Dark Mischief, Marching Time, William Morgan, Catigo and Castles in the Air.
Remember: The horses used are not given out as tips! I'm just using them as examples.

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ROYAL ASCOT FESTIVAL TRENDS

Only 3 days until the meeting starts and the Guide is really taking shape now.

Days 1 - 3 are now ready for download with all the usual trends, facts, figures, stats and ratings included. We're just waiting on the final 48 hour decs to complete the missing blanks and make those all important selections. There are a few races where we have already gone through the trends to find the winner and you can see these at the end of each section.

The fully completed guides for each day will be ready 24 hours before that day's racing starts and can be downloaded as many times as you like. All members will be notified whenever the Guides are updated.

The finished guide will be about 200 pages long and cover every race run at the Festival.

One of the runners from our Ante-Post sheet is now a non runner but the other 3 all look intented runners and are still available at 25/1 twice and 40/1. All have perfect trends profiles and look to be worth a small each way investment at this time. Remember it was on this sheet that we first highlighted 33/1 winner Something Wells at the Cheltenham Festival back in March.

To purchase your copy simply login to the Members Area, if you are already signed up, or click below to go straight to the payment page...
>>> Click here for ROYAL ASCOT FESTIVAL TRENDS

It promises to be a great meeting and we've left no stone unturned to bring you the definitive Bookie Bashing guide. GET YOUR COPY NOW!

Good luck,
Gavin.

Staking Plans...Day 2

Using yesterday's results we have loser/loser/9-4 winner/1-3 winner/loser/loser/loser/loser
Let's see how each staking plan coped with those results....

LEVEL STAKES PLAN
Starting bank...£10,191
£100 on each selection = -£342
Finishing bank...£9849

SQUARE ROOT STAKING PLAN
Starting bank....£10,182
1st bet £113.49 lost
2nd bet £108.31 lost
This now takes us under our £10000 starting bank so we revert to £100 level stakes
3rd bet £100 won at 9/4 and puts the bank back into profit...£10,186
4th bet £113.63 won at 1/3 for a profit of £37
5th bet £114.93 lost
6th bet £110.39 lost and again takes our bank below the £10,000
7th bet £100 lost
8th bet £100 lost

leaving the bank at £9798 and our next bet as £100

FIBONACCI

Starting bank £10,191 and £200 bet
1st bet lost
2nd bet is now £300 which also lost
3rd bet £500 which wins at 9/4
4th bet is back to the start of the number series £100 which wins at 1-3
5th bet is again at the start £100 which lost
6th bet £100 lost
7th bet £200 lost
8th bet £300 lost

leaving our bank at £10,149 but our next bet as £500

LABOUCHERE

The bank starts at £10,145 and our first bet as £195
which lost so the chain now looks like x-x-3-4-x-x-7-10-13 and the next bet now becomes 16 x £15 = £240
Another loser and we now stake £285 (19 units) which thankfully won at 9/4
We're not out of trouble yet as our next bet is £255 (17 units) which also won but at 1/3
The number chain now looks like x-x-x-x-x-x-7-10-x-x
Now our stake stays at 17 units and loses
as does the next with £360 (24 units) on it
plus the next with £465 (31 units)
and the next £570 (38 units).

The bank is at £8734 and our next bet a whopping £675.
The number chain now looks like x-x-x-x-x-x-7-10-x-x-17-24-31-38

Pass the shotgun!

REVERSE LABOUCHERE

Here we start off with £10,165 and a stake of £135 . The number chain is x-x-3-4-5-6-x-x
Our first bet loses so we cross off the 3 and the 6
and stake £135 again (6+3) which loses again and wipes out our chain.

The staking system was originally designed for roulette and betting even money fancies (i.e. Red or Black, Odd or Even etc..). Doing every bet at evens when you wipe out the chain you will lose 21 units, in this case £315, but as we backed a 3/1 winner yesterday though the chain has been cleared we have only lost 7 units (£105) and our bank now stands at £9895.

So we re-write the number sequence out again 1-2-3-4-5-6 and start from the beginning...
First bet is £105 or 7 units(6+1) and wins at 9/4
add the 7 to the end and our next bet is 8 units (£120) and wins at 1/3
8 to the end and we now stake £135.
It lost so we cross out the 8 and 1 and stake £135 (2=7 units)
Another loser and again we cross out first and last leaving x-x-3-4-5-6-x-x
We bet £135 again (3+6) and lose again
Another £135 bet (4 + 5) and we have another loser that wipes out our second chain.

This time we have lost £259 and our bank stands at £9636.
The number chain resets to 1-2-3-4-5-6 to make our first bet today £105 (6 + 1 units)

Today's horses come from York...
Parbold Hill, Handsome Falcon, Hawk Mountain, Orpen Arms, Sloop JohnB, Spirit of Adjisa.

I'll be back tomorrow with all the latest progress.

-----------
ROYAL ASCOT FESTIVAL TRENDS

Only 4 days until the meeting starts and the Guide is beginning to take shape now.

Day 1 and day 2 are now ready for download with all the usual trends, facts, figures, stats and ratings included. We're just waiting on the final 48 hour decs to complete the missing blanks and make those all important selections. There are a few races where we have already gone through the trends to find the winner and you can see these at the end of each section.

Each day will be ready 24 hours before the meeting starts and can be downloaded as many times as you like. All members will be notified whenever the Guides are updated.

The finished guide will be about 200 pages long and cover every race run at the Festival.

Also ready for download now is our famous '4 for the meeting' ante-post sheet. This time we've got a 12/1 hope, two 25/1 shots and a big 40/1 outsider for the big race on the final day of the meeting.All have perfect trends profiles and have got to be worth a small each way investment at this time. Remember it was on this sheet that we first highlighted 33/1 winner Something Wells at the Cheltenham Festival back in March.

To purchase your copy simply login to the Members Area, if you are already signed up, or click below to go straight to the payment page...

>>> Click here for ROYAL ASCOT FESTIVAL TRENDS

It promises to be a great meeting and we've left no stone unturned to bring you the definitive Bookie Bashing guide. GET YOUR COPY NOW!

----------

FRIDAY FUN

With Royal Ascot fast approaching what better time to take a look back at last years meeting in all it's glory...



Good luck,
Gavin.

Click here for ROYAL ASCOT FESTIVAL TRENDS

Staking plan experiment...DAY 1

Okay, the first day and from Wednesday's 6 runners we had, in the order that they ran,...
10-11 winner / Non Runner / Non Runner / 3-1 winner / Loser / Loser

Let's see what difference it makes to each Staking System.

First up is the LEVEL STAKES PLAN which simply has £100 on every selection.

Bank start £10,000

£100 at 3/1, £100 at 10/11, £100 Loser, £100 Loser

The bank finishes at £10,191 and the next stake is £100

Now we will see what difference the SQUARE ROOT STAKING PLAN makes...

Bank Start £10,000

First bet £100 wins at 10/11. Bank is now £10,091

Next bet is £109.54 on a 3/1 winner. Bank is now £10,419

Next bet is £120.47 which loses as does the following bet of £117.29

The bank finishes at £10, 182 and the next stake is £113.49

On to the much maligned FIBONACI SERIES STAKING PLAN..

Starting bank £10,000 and if we get a winner we'll go back to the start of the series. 6 consecutive losers and we'll give up and also start again. We'll use the 1,1,2,3,5,8 sequence.

First bet £100 wins at 10/11. Start again...

Second bet is £100 on a 3/1 winner...Start again

next bet is £100 on a loser so the next bet is £100 which also loses.

The bank finishes at £10,191 but our next bet is £200

The infamous LABOUCHERE STAKING SYSTEM....

Start bank is £10,000 we'll use the 1-2-3-4-5-6 = 21 units plan and each unit will be a £15 stake

First bet is 7 (6+1) x £15=£105 which wins at 10/11. Cross out the 6 and the 1 from the chain.

Then we stake 7 (5+2) x £15 = £105 on a 3/1 winner. Cross out the 5 and the 2.

Next bet is 7 (4+3) x £15 =£105 which loses so we add the 7 to the chain so it reads x-x-3-4-x-x-7

So now we have to stake 10 (3+7) x £15 = £150 on another loser. Add the 10 to the end of the number sequence.

We now have a bank of £10,145 a number sequence of x-x-3-4-x-x-7-10 and a next bet of 13 (10+3) x £15 = £195. Eeek!

Now to the modified REVERSE LABOUCHERE...

Same £10,000 starting bank, same £15 betting units and the same sequence of numbers 1-2-3-4-5-6. If we hit 63 units profit we will take our money and run! i.e. start again

First bet is again 7 x £15 = £105 on a 10/11 winner. This time we add the 7 to the end of the chain to give us 1-2-3-4-5-6-7

Our follow up bet now becomes 8 x £15 = £120. It wins at 3/1 and we add the 8 to the end.

Next bet is 9 x £15 = £135 which loses. We cross off the 1 and the 8 to give us a number sequence of x-2-3-4-5-6-7-x.

Our next bet is again 9 (2=7) x £15 = £135 which also loses. Cross out the first and last number and we end the day with a bank of £10,165 a number sequence of x-x-3-4-5-6-x-x and our starting bet for the next day of £135 (6+3)

Onto the MARTINGALE which had the following results...

Loser / Evens winner / 8-11 winner / 10-11 winner / Loser / 10-11 winner

The same £10,000 starting bank and £100 win for the first bet. Double the stake every loser. Back to the original stake for every winner.

-£100 (next bet £200)

+£200

+£73

+£91

-£100 (next bet £200)

+£182 gives us a total bank now of £10, 346 and our next bet of £100

Todays selections come from Newbury and are Party Doctor, Welsh Anthem, Splash Down, Hidden Brief, Kinetix, Integria, Devil to Pay and Dragon Slayer. I'll be back tomorrow with the updates.

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I'll be having just the one bet today to try and boost my