Cyber Attack.....

According to the experts my new site has been the victim of a cyber attack which has caused it to stop working. Most annoying!

It's going to take a couple of days to clean the relevant files and re-submit the site pages to Google so until then it's back to the old home here at Nag3 Blogger.

GOODWOOD

I've been suffering from terrible jet lag up until now and haven't had too many bets at Goodwood this week but after a great day with the Trends Guide yesterday I'm really looking forward to today especially as it sees the running of the Totesport Mile.

I wrote last month that this was the race with one of the biggest draw bias in UK racing and if you're drawn low you might as well stay at home.

The first 5 home last year were drawn 20,19,18,17 and 16! In that order.
In 2007 it was 20,14,13 (20 ran). In 2006 16 and 15 (17 ran). In 2005 16 and 13 (18 ran), 2004 20 of 21, 2003 22 of 21, 2002 21 of 21, 2001 19 of 21 and 2000 18 of 22

When you add to the mix the fact that no horse aged over six has even made the frame in the last 10 years and all of the last 10 winners finished in the top 6 last time out you are left with just two horses....Cloudy Start and Vitznau

Simples!

2.45 Goodwood

A horse that I have been following recently is Indian Trail and it's interesting to note that he is due to run just 24 hours after finishing 4th in another Goodwood sprint. He's been crying out for a return to 6f and with Frankie Dettori booked to do the steering, at 12/1, he may be worth a small each way wager should he turn up to race again.

---------

And finally, I won't bore you with all the details from my recent Vegas trip but here's a little story to show just how close me and the missus came to hitting the jackpot while we were there. We were playing a table game called Carribean Stud Poker, which basically involves your 5 card poker hand beating the dealers hand and which has special progressive jackpots should you make the top hands. Obviously the best hand in poker is the Royal Flush (10 to Ace of the same suit) and the Jackpot for this particular hand was just over $115,000.

The very first hand we played I was dealt the 10, J, Q, A of clubs and the 5 diamonds which was close but ultimately provided no cigar.

And then just three hands later the missus was dealt the very same 10, J, Q, A of clubs and....... the King of Spades. I was sitting in the next seat to her with the much needed King of clubs in my hand making it about as close as you can get without winning.

The thought did cross my mind to do a quick switch but having seen such films as Casino, Oceans 11 and 21 I didn't relish the prospect of being taken 'out the back' to one of the casino's windowless rooms and have some old-style Vegas justice handed out to me. We took our $100 for the straight and spent the rest of the afternoon thinking of what might have been.....

Good luck,

Gavin.

Gremlins...

New site
It seems there are a few more gremlins in the new site than I had previously suspected and I've had to call in the experts to clear them out. Hopefully now I have someone who knows what they're doing the site should soon be up and running smoothly. Until it is sorted out I'll continue posting here as well as at new Nag3.

The daily tip will continue and after Wednesday's unlucky loser we got on the scoresheet with a winner yesterday. Today's selection is now available...http://nag-nag-nag.co.uk/daily-tip/

The sign up box is still active and if you haven't already put your details in to continue the email notifications of any new postings you can still do that here...http://nag-nag-nag.co.uk/

----------

Birthday Boy
I celebrate my 41st birthday tomorrow and as I won't be around to post any horses I'll do it now.

I said earlier in the week that my bet of the day would be Above Limits in the Newbury Super Sprint (3.25) and having looked at the declarations I'm still supremely confident of a big run. I'm looking for her to pay for my upgrade to premium economy on my Virgin flight on Wednesday and add a few more $ to my Vegas punting fund. The fingers are firmly crossed here at Nag Towers.

Over at Newmarket in the 2.35 it would seem that Barshiba is a good thing after her success in the Lancashire Oaks but she has to give a lot of weight away to the 3yo's and I'm going to side with the younger generation and in particular Henry Cecil's Flame of Gibraltar.

Time to switch codes as my next selection runs in the Summer Plate Chase (3.40 Market Rasen). Hold Em spent most of last season contesting, and not being disgraced, in the highest of novice chase company. He rounded off the season with a facile win when heavily dropped in class and has since had two 'quiet' runs over fences and hurdles. He looks to me a horse that has been laid out for this race and should run well at a biggish price.

And one for the trends fans...

Hackwood Stakes 2.20 Newbury.
9 of the last 10 winners were rated 104 or higher (exception was un-rated)...
Intrepid Jack, Palace Moon, Shallal, Festoso and Doncaster Rover can all go

11 of the last 13 winners had won over 6f...
Spin Cycle hasn't

10 of the last 12 winners were 3 or 4yo's...
Edge Closer, Icelandic, Judd Street, Matsunoke, Prime Defender and War Artist are all pensioned off

12 of the last 13 winners ran over 6f+ last time out...
Madam Trop Vite finished well behind over 5f on her last run.

This leaves us with one horse who took the Wokingham last time out and looks well worth this step up in class.....HIGH STANDING

For this weekends BBB I'll use some of my birthday cash to do
4 x £5ew singles and a 20pew Lucky 15

------------

FRIDAY FUN (?)

This is one of the rides on top of the Stratosphere Casino in Las Vegas and is appropriately named Insanity. My younger brother and his wife were brave enough to try it out but as I get the shakes just climbing a ladder it's not on my list of things to do while I'm there. The ride is 909 feet up.......




Good luck,
Gavin.

Open glory.....

With the racing so far this week being somewhat less than inspiring I thought I'd have a look at the golf and The Open to see if I could find something to have a bet on.

Before I start I'd like to announce that I'm no golf expert and my record of picking the winners of the Majors is poor to say the least but I've enlisted the help of a few family members who fancy themselves as golf experts and between us we've come up with the following 4 bets....

OUTRIGHT WINNER (3 off the tee)

Steve Stricker
Probably the most in-form guy on the tour at the moment after winning the John Deere tournament last weekend. He used to be a bit of a bottler when faced with a winning opportunity, which was ably demonstrated at Carnoustie 2 years ago when he blew his chance over the final 6 holes, but after a win in the Colonial earlier this year his confidence seems to be at it's peak right now and if he gets himself into a winning position this year I think we'll see a different Steve Stricker take on those final few holes. He's finished a creditable 8th and 7th in the last 2 Open's and at 50/1 he looks a great each way bet.

Ben Curtis
He won the Open in 2003 before enduring a rather torrid time afterwards. He seems to have got his game back together again now and has finished in the top 8 for both of the last two Opens. With a 4th place finish last time out on the US Tour he may be another who is running into form at just the right time. He's not the biggest of hitters, which shouldn't be too much of a problem at Turnberry where accuracy is more of a requisite, but he is one of the best bunker players around and that should help him should the wind get up and send his ball sand bound. 66/1 seems a fair price.

Richard Green
The Australian left hander is another who could be bracketed in the bottler division and if he's towards the top of the leaderboard come Sunday night it might be a good idea to lay him back on Betfair but at 200/1 he looks a big price for someone who is in good form and he finished a very respectable 4th at Carnoustie 2 years ago. He also led last weekends Scottish open after the first day before fading out of it to finish 35th but with 3 top 10 finishes before that tournament he obviously comes here in good heart and could reward us with a big priced place.

TOP AMERICAN WITHOUT TIGER WOODS

Brandt Snedeker
Silly name but a great golfer who looks good value at 40/1 to be the top US player without Tiger Woods. He's another player in good form at the moment and is one of the best putters on the tour. He was 3rd in the Masters last year and if he can handle links golf should give us a run for our money.

Finally on the golf....

Boylesports have put up one of the greatest concessions ever made for punters as they offer each way terms of 1/4 odds the FIRST 8!

If you fancy a bet on the golf and are backing each way this has to be the best chance ever of getting paid. Plus if you haven't already got an account with them they'll also give you a free bet by matching your first bet up to £20.

To open an account click on the banner below.....



I've opened my account with them and placed 4 x £5ew bets on the above golfers with all winnings going to the monthly Bonus Ball Bet prizefund.

---------

NEW SITE

Thanks for your emails and comments about the new site. It seems that most of you like the site but were having difficulty with the size of the text. I have of course listened to these concerns and have increased the font size to hopefully make it a bit easier to read. Please let me know if there are any other issues you would like addressing.

And don't forget if you want to keep getting email updates of any posts you'll need to sign up again at the new site. Simply fill out the box to the right of the screen at http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/

That's all for now folks.
Good luck,
Gavin.

Moving home...

It's nearly time to say goodbye to the old Nag3 site as the final tweaking takes place over at the new place http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/

I'll continue posting on this site until I get back from Vegas (28th July) but after that date this site will move permanently to it's new home. From today you can also read the daily posts on the new site as well as here so if you fancy making the transition straight away there's nothing to stop you.

The sign-up box is now active and if you want to carry on receiving the notification emails that let you know when there is a new post then you'll have to sign up again. Sorry about that.
Just pop your name and email address in the box on the right hand side of the screen and click 'nag updates'. It only takes a couple of seconds and your email address will never be used by anyone other than myself or Matt.

The site again is ......http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/ and you simply click on any of the tabs to move to the next page. If it's just the blog you're interested in, the tab is situated at the top of the screen and is imaginatively titled 'Blog'.


New feature
When you check out the new site you'll also see a tab entitled 'Daily Tip' on the left hand side. Starting from today I will be posting one horse a day as my daily fancy with a running total (+ or -) so you can track how it's going. Today's runner goes at Yarmouth tonight and is now available.


If you have any comments, problems or questions about the new site please email me at gavin@nag-nag-nag.co.uk

Good luck,
Gavin.

Temper, temper.....

The 5 things I have learnt this week..

1) Laptops are delicate things...

and should be treated with care. After a particularly unlucky exit in 3rd place of a poker tournament early Saturday morning I slammed the lid down on my laptop in a fit of rage.

Bad mistake! I duly cracked the screen and the $1200 winnings I got for finishing third just about covered the cost of a new computer from PC World yesterday. This was the reason I didn't post Saturday.

2) 2009 could be the year of the filly...

Rachel Alexander has already re-written the history books across the pond after winning the Preakness Stakes and now our very own super-filly Sariska has laid down her challenge to be regarded as the best filly in the world. After a decisive win in yesterday's Irish Oaks she could join the French filly Stacelita in becoming the main challengers to Sea The Stars unbeaten record in the Arc. But they're not the only females stealing the headlines this season as last years Oaks winner Look Here looks ready to win again in Group 1 company after two very promising runs this season and with 1000 Guineas and Coronation Stakes winner Ghanaati likely to prove tough to beat in this months Sussex Stakes this really could be the year of the filly.

3) England won't win the Ashes back....

unless they change their mentality and realise that test cricket is played over 5 days. They won the toss and decided, quite rightly, to bat first on a wicket that looked primed to allow a big score. But the middle order seem totally unable to accept the fact that to win Test cricket you have to build runs gradually over at least two days. It's all very well knocking off 60 from 40 balls if you can keep it going to score 100 or 200 but showing off and throwing your wicket away (Mr Pieterson) does not help the team. In the interview after the first days play the players all seemed pleased with themselves having reached 380 odd when really they should have been aiming for a total of 600 (as the Aussies proved) on that pitch. We'll take the draw but they'll have to raise their game at Lords on Thursday.

4) It's time to start backing the Suroor horses....

I touched on this briefly last week but it looks like after a very poor start to the season it's time to start backing the Boys in Blue. Saeed Bin Suroor has sent out 11 winners from his last 29 runners and seen another 7 of them placed. If you've done your money on any Goldophin horse over the last few months (I know I have!) it's now time to get your money back.

Kite Wood was a good start for me last week and I'll now be looking to get a return from Yahrab, Veracity, Giganticus and Eastern Anthem.

5) Paco Boy seems to attract controversy every time he runs....

I doubt there's been a horse that has had more written about them this year than Paco Boy. Will he stay a mile, won't he, can he handle Group 1 company, letters to the Racing Post from the Jockey, trainer, owner, even I've added my twopence worth.

And then just when you thought all the questions had been answered and everything had been said that needed to be said along comes Jimmy Fortune to ride a poor race on him in the July Cup. It wasn't the worst ride ever given to a horse and in my opinion Paco Boy didn't look like he handled the track too well but Fortune upset a lot of people with his strong finish that didn't quite make the frame. The drop back to 6f was never going to be easy and he was outpaced early on but even with different riding tactics I doubt he'd have finished better than 3rd.

It will be interesting to see what the horse has install for us next time.....

---------

Saturday's Super Sprint at Newbury

I've got a real fancy for this race at the weekend and will let you all have the name of it early so you can get the price as soon as the markets open up.

Richard Hannon has dominated this sales race since it's inception with 6 winners and a host of placed runners but it's worth noting he has been responsible for the last 5 beaten favourites and he accounts for far and away the most numbers of runners of any trainer. We can expect his usual bumper entry this year and with Monsieur Chevallier likely to be a leading fancy he'll fancy his chances again but I'm going to look elsewhere for the winner...

The interesting stat for this race is the fact that fillies have won 7 of the last 10 runnings and have provided 12 winners since the races inception in 1991. This can be explained by the way the race conditions are framed and the allowances given depending on the price paid for the horse at the sales. The race is restricted to those horses purchased for £48,000 or less and 1lb is taken off the initial weight for every £3000 under than that price. With fillies generally passing through the sales ring for a lower price than their male counterparts they're off to a good start before you take into consideration the 5lb sex allowance they also receive.

Other things to note about the 5f Super Sprint is that those horses who race prominently have a fantastic record as do those who contested the 2yo races at Royal Ascot.

Which brings us to my idea of the likely winner. She's trained by Tom Dascombe and ran a blinder from a terrible draw at Ascot in the Albany Stakes behind Habaayib. She led for most of the way before finding the draw disadvantage take affect in the final 75 yards and finished a respectable 6th. The 7th horse that day, Jira, raced alongside the selection on the far side and has since come out and won a Listed race at Newmarket.

She entered my notebook as one to look out for next time and this race was the obvious target for her. Obviously Mr Dascombe shares my opinion as he has entered her for the race and off just 8-00 I'm very hopeful of a big run.

And her name.....ABOVE LIMITS.

--------

FESTIVAL TRENDS

Thanks for all the emails after Saturday's Festival Trends big race 16/1 winner, Sirvino, and the forecast as well with top rated horse Kingdom of Fife finishing second. We were due a change of luck after a lot of big priced placed horses recently and this was just the tonic.

We move on to Ascot next before the big meeting at the end of the month, Glorious Goodwood.

If you want to get a copy of the Trends Guide for both meetings it's just £14.95 and will include the 17 major races from both meetings. You can get it here...

Festival Trends Sign-Up Page

Good luck,

Gavin.

Newmarket Day 3.....

After yesterday's 'bet of the day' obliged the pressure's now on to make it a hat-trick. There are a few I fancy today and there are also 3 runners with some interesting stats associated with them. I'll give those to you first...

In the 3.55 York, Mark Johnson's record over the last 10 years in this race is pretty impressive. He's had 9 runners who have finished 131211681 and today he runs Whispering Gallery who is currently available at 7/2

Similarly in the 7.00 Chepstow Richard Hannon's record in the race over the last 10 years reads 1231121. Tonight he runs Palisades Park who is 11/4 at the moment.

The last stat for the day is Richard Hills record in the 3.45 Newmarket. He's had 6 rides in the last 10 years, has never been out of the frame and won twice. Today he rides Ghazwah for the John Gosden stable.

Onto my thoughts for the day....

I'll get this one out of the way early so you can all have a good laugh but in the July Cup (Newmarket 3.10) today I can't see why Equiano is a 100/1 shot. Granted, his form's not been that good this year but he is a Group 1 sprint winner and ran 4th over the course in last years Group 1 Nunthorpe. He's still only a 4yo and it's too early to write him off just yet.

There have been worse 100/1 shots running in Group races before and I'll be having a £1 ew on him at those odds.

OK, if you've stopped laughing I'll continue.

One of the things that has become quite clear this week at Newmarket is that Saeed Bin Suroor has struck form with a vengeance. After a very poor start to the season their horses are now starting to show their true potential and the stable is definitely worth following over the next month or so.


They've got a few runners around the country today and most have a fairly decent chance but the one I like the most is Sovereign Remedy in the 1.30 Newmarket. He beat a Stoute hotpot in an ordinary Nottingham maiden back in May before finding the step up to 1m 2f too far for him on his handicap debut. Back to a mile today he looks a good bet at around 8/1.

And finally my bet of the day. He runs in the nursery (a handicap for 2yo's) at 4.20 Newmarket, he runs off bottom weight and he's one for all you 80's children. Ant Music has been very highly tried in the three maidens he has contested including the one that top 2yo Canford Cliffs won at Newbury and his rating of 71 looks very fair on that particular run. He started off his career behind the other classy Hannon juvenile Monsiuer Chevallier and I can't believe he's got in here off such a light weight. He's 20/1 and my each way bet of the day.

Good luck,
Gavin.

Newmarket Day 2....

What a great day yesterday turned out to be. After a disappointing run from First City in the first race and Henry Cecil's 2nd string had beaten my fancy at 25/1 later in the afternoon I thought it was going to be another one of those days.

But my Placepot perm came up and payed a very nice £1950 which meant I ended up doubling my stake on my bet of the day in last nights Kempton 7.20. That won very nicely at 7/2 and now gives me a punting pot full of $'s for my Vegas birthday trip. Now all I have to do is keep hold of it and not blow it before the 22nd (I must be evens to lose the lot before then!)

One interesting point I'd like to know about the Placepot though is just how much I managed to influence the dividend by posting my perm. I had a couple of emails last night from happy readers who had followed the perm and between us we had £3.60 of the £66 winning dividend. If there was anyone else who got the bet up could they let me know by either leaving a comment or emailing me at gavin@nag-nag-nag.co.uk.

It wouldn't take a very large % of our readership to have followed the perm in order for it to have a dramatic affect on the dividend and it's not beyond the realms of possibility that readers were responsible for 10-15% of all winners of the bet. I'll still be publishing my perms (and you can read today's at the end of this post), I'd just be interested to know. Thanks.

The other news worthy item that I didn't realise until after the event was that the 7.20 Kempton last night, in which my tip Action Impact did the business for me, was actually the race that was run to music. You may recall me berating the Kempton executives for coming up with such a ludicrous idea in an earlier post and even backing the winner of the race won't make me change my mind on the subject as I still think it is ridiculous. The London Philharmonic Orchestra playing Rossini's William Tell Overture while horses compete around Kempton. Please! Is that the best the Kempton executives can come up with to increase crowds? If so then they really don't have a clue, do they?

Last word on the subject goes to the winning race jockey Ryan Moore who when asked for his opinion on the idea simply replied, in his usual succinct manner,....'it was stupid.' Enough said.

------------

Onto today.

The trends guide did well yesterday with both Misheer and Goldikova highlighted from the 3 races we covered. We again have three races in the guide for today and you can still get a copy by going here.

The first race at Newmarket (1.30pm) today sees the return of Kite Wood after his disappointing run in The Derby. He was beaten only 2 lengths in the Dante on his first run of the season and on that form he's head and shoulders above this lot. With Saeed Bin Suroor finally getting amongst the winners recently (6 out of his last 14 runners have won) I'd expect to see this one run a much better race today and at a generous looking 11/4 he will be my bet of the day.

The concluding race of the day (4.55) is a 5f sprint handicap and I just can't help myself when it comes to these type of races. It looks a very tough race with a lot of in form runners lining up but if you take a closer look at some of the form you'll see that a lot of them have been campaigned at a lower class than this (Blue Jack, Magical Speedfit and Sands Crooner) or are now running off a much higher mark than they have won off (Rothesay Dancer). After yesterdays racing it seemed that a middle to high draw was advantageous but I don't like backing 3yo's in these all aged sprints so I can't have the likely favourite, but well drawn, Green Beret on my shortlist. Which leaves me looking at the two course and distance winners Angus Newz and Kay Two plus the 9yo Indian Trail to try and find the winner. Angus Newz ran a good race in Ireland last time out to be beaten only 3 lengths in a Group 3 but translating Group form to handicaps is notoriously dodgy and I'd rather back last years winner Kay Two of the two C & D winners. But the one I will be backing is Dandy Nicholl's Indian Trail who had the worst of the draw last time at Newcastle but still ran respectably and was well clear of those drawn low. After winning a decent handicap at the end of 2007 he spent most of last season running off handicap marks in the 100's but the handicapper has now released his grip on him and he still looks fairly treated on a mark of 88. He looks set for a big run.

My Placepot perm for Newmarket today...
4-6 / 2-4-7 / 3-6-12 / 5-6 / 5-8-9 / 2-5 = 216 bets

Good luck,
Gavin.

Newmarket July meeting....

Today sees the launch of the Racing Post membership service and the grand unveiling of the charges they plan to levy on readers to access the main content of their website. I'm sure Matt will have plenty to say on the matter so I'll leave it to him and his Geegeez post to let off some steam.

One thing I will say on the subject though, is that it seems to me they are almost embarrassed by the membership fees as trying to find out the actual cost of the service is quite hard. The email I received linked to another page with descriptions of various packages but no mention of the cost and on their website front page there is also a link to a page titled 'Members Club Launch - All you need to know'. All you need to know except the price that is!

For those that do want to know, the basic package starts at £7.50 per month and the top package is £199.95 per annum. OUCH!

-----------

Newmarket July Meeting

We've covered 3 races today in our trends guide, which can be purchased from here.

The first race of the day (1.30 Newmarket) had some weakish trends so I didn't bother with it for the guide but there is a horse running in the race that I think should go well. First City belied her 66/1 odds to run 5th of 19 at Royal Ascot behind Moneycantbuymelove. Despite being hampered twice inside the final 2 furlongs she stuck on well and would have finished a lot closer had she avoided the trouble. She had started her season with a good 3rd behind Fantasia in a Group 3 race and with Ahmed Ajtebi able to take off 3lb looks nicely treated off a rating of 90.

Later on in the afternoon Henry Cecil introduces a impeccably bred colt in the 4.20 Newmarket called Manifest. I've heard good things about this one but he does have a tough introduction as the top one, Beauchamp Xerxes, has some very good form in the book. I'll be having a few pounds on the Cecil beast though in the hope he can produce on the course what he has been doing on the gallops.

And one more for Kempton tonight which will be my attempt to get some punting money for Vegas. He runs in the 7.20 and is coming back after a fairly long layoff. Action Impact last ran on the 1st March where he was a beaten favourite but had previously ran a very good second to War of the Roses and that form is better than anything else on show in this race. Ryan Moore is onboard and he is my idea of the best bet of the day.

I'm also having a go at the Newmarket Placepot today with the following perm....

4-11-15 / 1-7-11 / 2-4-8 / 3-8 / 2-10 /1-9 = 216 bets

Good luck,
Gavin.

Weekend wrap...

It's Monday so it must be time for....

THE 5 THINGS I HAVE LEARNT THIS WEEKEND.

1) I'm off to Vegas for my birthday!

Yee-hah. The missus has booked a surprise holiday for the two of us in the gambling capital of the world. The surprise being that she booked it on my credit card!
Who cares, 6 days in sin city with the little one staying at grandma's has got to be the perfect birthday present no matter who ends up paying. What a great start that was to my weekend...

2) SEA THE STARS
Another fantastic performance from the Guineas and Derby winner puts him well on the road to immortality. He's now won 3 Group 1 races this season over distances of 1m, 1m 4f and 1m 2f. The St. Leger over 1m 6f would complete the set and just about seal his place as one of the all time greats but as that's unlikely we'll have to hope John Oxx sends him to the Breeders Cup for a rematch with Rip Van Winkle and/or Fame and Glory. And I'll be there to see it!

3) Nicky Henderson got off lightly...
He and his vet knew that using TA was against the rules and they, wrongly, thought it couldn't be detected. It can, they got found out and they then set about lying to cover their tracks and deceiving the hearing panel. A £40,000 fine is just and is going to hurt even a big name trainer like Henderson but banning a NH trainer for 3 months out of the regular season is ridiculous. It would be like banning Sir Michael Stoute for 3 months in November-January. Henderson should have been banned until the end of the year at the very least. I can't imagine a smaller stable doing the same thing would have got off so easily.


4) I should have been a Dutchman....
It's there to see in black and white. Another weekend where faced with a choice of two selections I opted for the wrong one.....again! I hope you all took the hint and backed Acrostic.

Having had Matt text me within 30 seconds of the horse passing the post berating me for not recommending to 'dutch' the selections I can take it no more and will from now on will begin 'dutching' selections when faced with a straight choice of two.

(For those of you unfamiliar with the term 'dutching' it simply means splitting your stake between the chosen selections.)

I've learnt my lesson...

5) A race to look out for...

While researching our latest trends guide for Newmarket (more to follow) I stumbled across a race that has proved a reliable guide for another race run later in the season. On Wednesday, the 2nd race of the day at Newmarket is a 6f handicap for 3yo's and in the last 8 years six of the winners have gone on to run in the Shergar Sprint at Ascot.

They finished 111214 winning at odds of 6/1, 6/4, 9/2 and 4/1 which can't be too bad.

So get out the notepad and pen and mark down the winner of the 2pm Newmarket on Wednesday.

---------
FESTIVAL TRENDS

The July Meeting at Newmarket is the next port of call for our Festival Trends Guide and we'll be covering 3 races each day from Racing HQ. There will also be a Special Bonus race included which will be Saturday's John Smith's Cup at York.

It's just £9.95 and available by clicking here...

or for just £19.99 you can subscribe for the entire month of July and receive Newmarket, York, Ascot and Glorious Goodwood.

Festival Trends Month of July

--------

NAG-NAG-NAG SITE

The new website is coming along nicely and I've just got to sort a few things out, including setting up the 'Update Box' and finishing off the pages before taking up residence. I'll be moving over to the new site from next Monday but you won't have to do anything as the site URL will be the same.

Good luck,

Gavin.

BBB Winners...

BBB JUNE

The 8 winners for last month were....

Raymond H

Harry P

Mark B

Dave S

Stuart (?)

Mike D

Mike T

Simon W

Congratulations, I've sent out an email to you all and await your address details so I can send out your cheques (£31 each)

Entries are now being taken for July's BBB.

Same old routine...send your number (1-49) to quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk

Good luck,

Gavin.

Just a quickie....

Just a very quick post today as I'm stuck working in the betting shop all day and the punters needed serving.

BBB News...

Last month's Prizepool was £250 and it looks like 8 lucky readers correctly chose bonus ball number 46 for around a £31 share of the pot. Emails will be going out tomorrow and I'll post the list of winning names too.

One thing I did notice when sifting through all the entries is that number 17 is very popular. With nearly 500 entries you'd expect to see each number about 10 times but number 17 must have been on about 30 emails. Bizarre.

Today we'll try and kickstart the monthly prizepool with the following two bets....

Coral Eclipse 3.15 Sandown

He has been nailed close home in two recent Group 1's at both Newbury and Royal Ascot and if any horse deserves a success at this level it's Twice Over. At around 16/1 he looks value to make the frame and if the market principles don't run to form he may even be able to steal the race. We'll have £10ew on him and take the 16's

2.40 Sandown

- The last 10 winners were all rated 92 to 102

- All of the last 10 winners had raced at least twice that season

- 9 of the last 10 winners had won at the distance

- 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 4-6yo

- Interestingly none of the last 10 winners had run on the all weather that winter

- In all of the last 10 runnings of this race where there have been 15 or more runners no horse has won from stall 13 or higher

Which leaves us with two Ellemujie and Acrostic.

Subscribers to the Festival trends guide will know my poor record of picking the right one when faced with a straight choice between two so feel free to back the one I discard!

Which will be Acrostic leaving me having £10ew Ellemujie at 25/1

We might as well have a £1ew double on the two (Twice Over and Ellemujie) for good luck.

I'll be back tomorrow,

Gavin.

P.S. It's still not too late to get a copy of the FREE two race trends Guide. Simply click below....

FREE 2 RACE TRENDS GUIDE AVAILABLE HERE....

Weekend racing.....

It's horses all the way today as I take a look at some of the races taking place over the weekend.
First up are a couple of interesting runners from today.

In the 2.40 Warwick Tom Dascombe runs an unraced colt against 4 last time out winners and he would appear to be pitched, if not quite in at the deep end, certainly away from the shallow end. However, this season Mr Dascombe has raced four 2yo's at Warwick and has won with them all. Overall the stables 2yo's have been performing well (14 winners from 53 runners) and at around 10/1 Apostle of Rome could be worth a second look today.

The next on my list is one we backed at Royal Ascot last time. Di Stefano was a big 33/1 outsider for the Windsor Castle but belied those odds with a storming run to finish a rapidly closing 3rd behind US raider Strike the Tiger. That form sets the standard for this race and he can hopefully gain compensation in Sandown's Listed Dragon Stakes at 2.50.

Third and final hope for today is the Henry Cecil trained Tranquil Tiger who goes in the 4.00 Sandown. In his 5 runs above Listed class he has yet to finish better than 4th but when racing at this grade his record is much more impressive with 5 wins from 9 starts. His form for those 9 races reads 514121211. The going and distance should pose no problems and another bold bid from the front looks on the cards.

--------------

Sandown and Haydock

The racing tomorrow includes the meetings from Sandown and Haydock with both cards featuring Group race action.
I have compiled a trends guide with those 2 big group races, The Coral Eclipse and Lancashire Oaks, and I'm offering all readers the chance to download the guide for FREE this weekend with no sign-ups, logins or payment of any kind needed.

The link below will take you directly to the guide with no catch whatsover.....

FREE 2 RACE TRENDS GUIDE AVAILABLE HERE....

-----------

Friday Fun

As it the Eclipse tomorrow it's time for me to reminisce (again) about my favourite horse Mtoto and take a look at his 1987 win where he defeated the Derby winner, Reference Point, in a real ding-dong battle from the furlong pole. Not bad for a first run in Group 1 company....

Good luck,

Gavin.

New site...

Exciting news here at Nag3 as the new site that I have been working on for the past month and a bit is nearly ready for use. It's taken a lot longer than I had hoped but that's mainly (probably entirely) due to my very limited understanding of the technical side of computing.

If you want to have a look at the new look layout then click below...

http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/

and have a little play around with the tabs etc...

You'll notice that very few of the links are working yet but I'll be adding the content to these over the weekend and we'll have a grand opening on Monday. Until then, if you wish to read my blog postings you can continue to use this web address.

-----------

BBB for JUNE

Last night's draw saw number 46 pop out as the bonus ball.
I'm now sifting through over 400 emails to find all the lucky winners who will share the £250 prize fund for last month.

I'll hopefully be able to notify the winners on Saturday and get the cheque(s) out next week.

In the unlikely event of no-one having selected number 46 the cash will rollover to this month. Details of this month's BBB will be in Saturday's Post

-----------

The DRAW

Just a quick follow up to the posts earlier in the week regarding the draw bias for certain races and why the position of your horse in the stalls does have an affect on its performance.

- On certain racecourses the drainage of the track sometimes means that different parts can experience different ground conditions and therefore favours one side or the other. In extreme conditions it can mean the difference between your horse racing in heavy going or soft going simply by where your horse is drawn.

-If there is a bend to negotiate early on in the race then those drawn on the outside are forced to run wider than the rest of the field and therefore have to run further than those drawn to the inside. This can be particularly hard for those who need to race from the front as they will need to use up valuable energy early on to achieve their favoured position.

Which leads me on to the next point and the question....

'Just how much further does an outside stall have to run?'

Taking our example from the other day, The Cesarewitch, we have a field that is generally around the 30 runner mark. I've no idea how wide each stall is but I would imagine it must be about 3 feet or 1 yard across meaning the horse drawn in stall 1 is 30 yards from the rail.

Now in the Cesarewitch the field have one right hand bend to negotiate after travelling about a mile so those drawn low have no option but to track over to the far rail to join the rest of the runners.

Having studied last years race the field went straight for around 50 yards then headed for the far rail with all the runners having assuming their racing position well before the first furlong had been run. So we can say within 150 yards of leaving the stalls.

Now it's time to go back to school for the dreaded algebra as we apply some simply maths to find out the relative distances run by the horses drawn 1 and 30 .

Where side A is the row of stalls (30 yards) and Side B the running rail (100 yards). Side C is the distance the horse drawn 1 has to run to join up with the rest of the field.

To help us calculate side C we simply use Pythagorus who tells us that side c = the square root of (the sum of side A squared + side B squared) or C = Square Root of (900 + 10000)

Which is 104.4 yards

So as long as the horse drawn in stall 30 keeps in a straight line he simply runs 100 yards whereas to get to the same point the horse drawn in stall 1 has to run 104.4 yards.

Which is quite a bit of a difference when you consider that races can be decided by inches.

Good Luck,

Gavin.