Affect of the draw. Discuss.....

It seems that my post yesterday, concerning the draw, has raised a few hackles and got something of a debate raging. Which is all good and very welcome. (Please feel free to add your say on the matter by leaving a comment at the end of this post or send me an email to gavin@nag-nag-nag.co.uk)

Basically, there are a few readers (maybe even more who haven't emailed) that don't believe the draw has an affect on the outcome of a long distance race.

Well, of course everyone is entitled to their opinion and they may be right but I personally firmly believe that in certain races it can affect the result.

The example I used yesterday was the Totesport Mile which is run over Goodwood's turning mile and the results of recent years has proved that the draw has a dramatic affect on the race result. Horses drawn low simply don't win this race.

You may agree with me on that one but struggle with the concept that a race run over mile and a half or even 2 miles+ could possibly be affected by the draw simply on the basis that over that kind of extended distance all horses will have plenty of time to sort themselves out and adopt their favoured running position.

Which in some races, on some courses over some distances is true. I'm not claiming that in every long distance race there is a draw bias but what I am claiming is that in certain long distance races run at certain tracks there is a definite advantage and disadvantage in where your horse is drawn.

As an example let's take a look at what is regarded as possibly the fairest track in the country, Newmarket's Rowley Mile course, and one of the longest distance handicaps run all season, The Cesarewitch. The horses in this race run for 2m 2f in a straight (ish) line with just one bend to navigate at the 10f pole and they only have to pass the post once i.e. when they finish.

This must be the fairest long distance race of them all. Or so you'd think......

Yet for the last 20 years, at least, the draw has played a major part in the outcome of the Cesarewitch. Take a look at the draw positions for the first 4 home since 1990.....

2008 11-32-28-14 (32) 2007 23-28-26-1 (33) 2006 29-32-11-20 (31) 2005 28-1-4-11 (34) 2004 18-12-32-19 (34) 2003 36-18-12-19 (36) 2002 36-35-29-1 (36) 2001 32-19-31-30 (31) 2000 18-6-20-21 (33) 1999 17-19-21-15 (32) 1998 19-22-18-4 (29) 1997 6-15-24-16 (31) 1996 15-13-26-3 (26) 1995 18-21-14-2 (21) 1994 28-25-15-12 (32) 1993 21-30-23-9 (31) 1992 10-3-18-20 (24) 1991 14-3-19-8 (22) 1990 16-24-10-22 (25)

- The winner has come from the top half of the draw for 16 of the last 19 runnings of the Cesarewitch.
- Only 1 horse has won in the last 19 years from a single figure draw.
- Only 13 horses from the 76 win and places came from a single figure draw.

I think it's pretty clear from these figures that those drawn in a low numbered stall have a serious disadvantage even though the race is run over 2 miles and a quarter.

It's back to school in tomorrow's post I'll be looking at a number of reasons, including algebra, as to why the draw may influence the result in such a long distance race.

Good luck,

Gavin.

Weekend round-up....

Five things I've learnt this weekend....

1) The draw can be just as important in long distance races as it is in sprints....

Saturday's 2 mile Northumberland Plate was the perfect example of how the draw can play a major part in deciding a race even over extreme distances with the first 4 home being drawn 4,2, 3 and 5. With the first bend coming quite soon after the stalls open it gives those drawn low a big advantage as they can assume a good position and are not forced to race wide like the rest of the field. Unfortunately, the low number that is missing, stall 1, housed my ante-post selection The Betchworth Kid but I did say that the winner would run well if getting soft ground and allowed to lead. It got both and my saver bet did the job and saved the day.

2) Mick Channon has obviously only recently started reading this blog......

as I have been saying for a while now that when Som Tala is allowed to race from the front he will show an improvement in form. If Mr Channon had started reading my thoughts back in May he could well have won the Chester Cup, Ascot Stakes and the Northumberland Plate. Ah well, better late than never Mick.

3) Clerks of the courses have no respect for the average punter....

How else can you explain the diabolical decision by Folkestones COC to water only half the track in an attempt to neutralise the affect of the draw bias. For Friday's evening meeting, according to the penetrometer readings it was 9.8 on the far side and 8.6 on the stands side giving a much faster racing surface on the far side. If any of you backed the red hot favourite George Baker in the first race you now know why you didn't win. With two very different goings on either side of the racecourse he was simply handicapped by racing on the wrong side. I'm sure owner Harry Findlay had something to say about that!

Of the 4 that raced on the now favoured far side they filled 3 of the top 4 positions at odds of 25/1, 66/1 and 66/1.

If they're so bothered by the draw bias why don't they simply position the stalls on the far side of the track?

4) Fame and Glory should have won the Derby...

I'm sure that this will split readers into two camps but I firmly believe that if Aiden O'Brien had used the same tactics that he employed in yesterday's Irish Derby at Epsom then we would have seen Fame and Glory beat Sea The Stars. He was a brilliant winner yesterday and coming from off a strong gallop really suited his style of racing. If the Epsom one-two should meet again before the end of the season then I will be firmly in the Fame and Glory camp and be placing a very large wager to back up my belief.

5) Look Here was a very worthy winner of last year's Oaks...

and she will win a big prize before the end of the year. She ran a fine race in the Coronation Cup and on Saturday over a trip a bit short of her best she again ran very well and came out of the race with great credit. I'm sure that connections are eyeing up a trip to Santa Anita in the Autumn and with America's Rachael Alexander looking likely to miss the meeting the Fillies and Mares looks just the job for her.

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While we're on the subject of the draw, there is a race coming up at Glorious Goodwood that is probably more dependent on the draw than any other race run all year. It's the Totesport Mile and basically if you're drawn low then you may as well stay at home.

The first 5 home last year were drawn 20,19,18,17 and 16! In that order.

In 2007 it was 20,14,13 (20 ran). In 2006 16 and 15 (17 ran). In 2005 16 and 13 (18 ran), 2004 20 of 21, 2003 22 of 21, 2002 21 of 21, 2001 19 of 21 and 2000 18 of 22

The reason for this anomaly is that the Mile race is run on the round course and runners are turning almost immediately after leaving the stalls. After the final bend is negotiated the camber of the track starts to take affect forcing those who are running wide to the inside rail.

DO NOT EVEN CONSIDER BETTING ON THIS RACE ANTE-POST unless you have a crystal ball that is able to predict the draw.

And once you know the draw simply look to those drawn in the 5 highest stalls to find the winner...simples!

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SPEEDWAY MONDAY FUN

Not the most exciting sport in my book with the one who gets out the traps the fastest usually winning but Saturdays British Grand Prix at the Millennium stadium had a bit more entertainment value thanks to these two having a bit of a disagreement....

Gavin.

Big race fancy.....

I was going to wait until tomorrow before revealing my selection for Saturday's big race but I have a feeling it's going to be punted so if there is anyone interested in backing my fancy I'd advise taking the early price of 20/1 before it disappears.....

NORTHUMBERLAND PLATE

It's Newcastle's biggest meeting of the year tomorrow and I've got one last free bet voucher to use for our Bonus Ball fund.

There are 3 horses in the race that interest me the most and they are...

Som Tala. He ran a fair 5th in the Ascot Stakes and appreciated the return to racing up with the pace. I'd like to see him go one step further and try to make all and from the 4 box he'll have every opportunity to do so. With the trip and track sure to suit him and a nice racing weight he looks value at around 25/1. Any easing in the ground would also help his chances.

Judgethemoment. From a trends point of view he has the best profile of any horse in the field and he was a game winner of the Ascot Stakes last time out. However, he does have a tough draw to overcome and as one who likes to race up with the pace this could prove troublesome. An out and out stayer he's sure to appreciate the trip and if it wasn't for the draw he would be an extremely confident selection.

Which leaves me siding with the third of my 3 fancies for our BBB and he is a horse I'm extremely confident will give us a big run at a big price.

The Betchworth Kid. Michael Bell's 4yo has been competing in some pretty decent Listed races of late without being totally disgraced and has proved a model of consistency throughout his career with 14 win and placed efforts from 20 starts. He is another with a good trends profile and also has some excellent form in big field handicaps with a 2nd of 21 in the Doncaster November Handicap amongst his runs. That run was off a mark of 97 and tomorrow he will be racing off 100 but with the jockey able to claim 5lb he is actually slightly better off and it's interesting to note that Bell won this race two years ago with a very similar type, Juniper Girl. The Betchworth Kid has everything in his favour and he seems to go on all types of ground so, granted luck in running (this is always a rough race), I'm very confident of a big run.

My advice is to back him each way and take the 20/1.

BBB £20 ew The Betchworth Kid at 20/1

PLUS

£1 Combination Forecast and Tricast

Som Tala, The Betchworth Kid and Judgethemoment

Good luck,

Gavin.

Royal Ascot final reflections....

A final look at last weeks Royal Ascot meeting before banishing the whole sorry episode to the back of my mind.

My 5 Best winners of the meeting....

1) CANFORD CLIFFS (COVENTRY) His 6 length demolition of a decent looking bunch of 2yo colts was about the best 2yo performance I've seen since Arazi won the Breeders Cup Juvenile. Hugely impressive.

2) FORGOTTEN VOICE (HUNT CUP) They said he was a Group horse running in a handicap and on this showing they could well be right.

3) MASTERCRAFTSMAN (St. JAMES PALACE) His wasn't the biggest margin of victory we saw all week but it must have been the gutsiest. The way he fought back when Delegator came alongside to challenge was a joy to see and it looks like Aiden O'Brien has another 'Iron Horse' on his hands. He has also won on a variety of ground from Good / Firm to Heavy and looks a true star in the making.

4) HOLBERG (QUEENS VASE) He ran out a convincing 4 length winner and was obviously impressive but what I liked about this performance was the way he quickened up and won going away from the field. It seems the 2 mile trip was right up his street and he should make up into a nice cup horse for next year.

5) JEALOUS AGAIN (QUEEN MARY) Not many people were paying attention to the American horses at the beginning of the week but after this breathtaking run from Wesley Ward's filly that certainly changed. Sprinting 4 lengths clear at the two furlong pole she showed terrific speed to remain clear of the field right up to the line. After Ward's success last week I would imagine there'll be a few more American trained horses running at Ascot next year.

and my favourite moment of the entire meeting.....

Forget Yeats, my personal favourite moment has to be Henry Cecil winning again at Royal Ascot. I fancied Native Ruler more than the winner but it was still great to see Henry back in the winners enclosure at the Royal meeting. Father Time hadn't looked that straightforward of rides previous to this victory but I think a step up in trip may bring about even more improvement in him and the St Leger looks the obvious target to me.

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PUNTERS HIT IN THE POCKET AGAIN

In Matt's post yesterday on his Geegeez blog he was fairly critical of the Racing Post for their plan to charge it's readers access to the majority of content on their website. I have to agree that this is a major disappointment and depending on how much they decide to charge it could lead to a lot of disgruntlement from angry customers.

But I think a far greater worry is the new pricing structure that Racing UK have now implemented due to the collapse of sports satellite Setanta. Before the Irish company went into receivership you could buy the complete Setanta package for £12 a month and this included all their sports channels and the all important Racing UK.

Football, golf, rugby and racing were all covered for the one price and represented pretty good value considering the content. Now however with RUK forced to go it alone as a separate channel they want to charge you £20 for the privilege of receiving just their racing coverage.

I doubt it's just me that sees this as representing a giant step backwards and one that will not go down very well with any of their subscribers. Apparently this £20 includes a compulsory charge of £9.99 to cover the cost of accessing their online site but I really think they should reconsider this strategy and continue charging separately to those customers who wish to take either of the services available. Not everybody wants to use their online site and charging customers for something they don't need, want or use has never been good business practice.

Obviously being a stand alone channel is going to have added costs compared to being under the umbrella of a larger satellite company but £10 for the satellite racing channel seems a fair price to me considering we have now lost a lot of other sports content. If this isn't financially viable then I think they may need to take a leaf out of the free-to-air AtTheRaces book and copy their business model or even, dare I say it, consider merging the two companies. I think this will eventually happen anyway but that's a discussion for another day....

All in all though, it's been a bad few days for the wallets and purses of us racing fans.

Good luck,

Gavin.

Royal Ascot reflections Part 1

It was a week I'd rather forget and one which ranks as probably the worst punting experiences I've ever had but there's no denying this years Royal Ascot had everything you could ask for from a horse race meeting. Here are a few of my favourite highlights (and lowlights) from the week.....

The Graham Taylor award for the worst tactics of the week....

It has to be Godolphin for the shambles of their race riding tactics in the Queen Anne. First they put Frankie, the King of Ascot, on their second string before handing the ride on the highest rated horse in the world to the youngster Ahmed Ajtebi. If that wasn't baffling enough he then rides Gladiatorus as a pacemaker and sets off like he's being chased by the devil himself.

My race riding skills only extend to playing G1 Jockey on my son's Wii but even I could see that pushing your horse to be 5 lengths clear of the field on a straight course isn't a good idea. I would say that, for me, it was the worst ride I have ever seen in a Group 1 race (and that includes Greville Starkey on Dancing Brave in the Derby)

The Biggest Flop of the week (sponsored by Viagra)...

It has to be Gladiatorus again as he just ran so badly for such a well fancied runner. Maybe winning easily out of season in Dubai isn't a true reflection of the horses ability and his rating needs adjusting accordingly or maybe he just had a bad day due to the way he was ridden. I guess we'll find out next time he runs.

A close second would be Doctor Freemantle who ran as the betting suggested he would i.e. badly. The bookmakers couldn't give him away and even though he had some very smart form in the book he was never in contention and was very disappointing.

The Robert De Niro best gangster look of the week....

No contest here with Aiden O'Brien winning hands down for having his sunglasses glued to his head for the entire meeting. I sat there open mouthed as he went up to collect the trophy for Mastercraftsman from the Queen as he still had his sunglasses on as he mounted the platform. With just a couple of strides to go he suddenly remembered and took them off just as he approached Her Majesty. Aiden you are a great trainer but top hat and tails with a pair of dark sunglasses just isn't cool.

The Katie Price (aka Jordan) worst lay of the week...

Unfortunately, as it turned out I completely mis-read the opening race of the meeting and, setting the tone for the rest of the week, I did my proverbials by laying Paco Boy. It's time to admit I was wrong and say that Paco Boy does stay a mile and looks a very tough, genuine and reliable Group 1 horse.

The Methuselah old timer award...

The race may be the weakest of the meeting and run over an extreme distance for a flat race but for the 12yo Caracciola to win as he did was simply amazing. When he won at York the time before he became the oldest horse to win a Listed race and with this new success he now becomes the oldest horse to ever win at Royal Ascot. Talk of a trip for the Melbourne Cup may be aiming a bit high but he has proved himself a very versatile horse and a grand servant for his owner and trainer. He'll just have to hope Yeats isn't kept in training until he's that age.

More tomorrow....

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Bonus Ball Prizepool

Good old 'Enry pulled us out of the hole and we now have a very tidy looking £237.50 in the BBB prize fund. I thought his Twice Over was very unlucky to be run out of a place and our each way bet go down but I'm sure he'll win a Group 1 race some time soon and we'll get our money back.

There is one more attempt left to add even more to the fund and I have a really nice bet lined up for the Northumberland Plate on Saturday.

Good luck,

Gavin.

Royal Ascot Day 4...

Things are going from bad to worse as my horses continue to be beaten. I thought I'd pulled it out of the fire yesterday when Jamie Spencer started his run on Secret Society. A furlong out there was nothing going better and I was getting quite excited but as has been the norm this week he was denied by the faster finishing Fareer and it just added to my list of big priced placed horses.

I've now had a 33/1 third, 25/1 third, 22/1 second, 20/1 second, 12/1 second, 12/1 third and a 9/1 third. Surely I must get a winner before the end of the week?

As if that wasn't enough my Placepot went down on the last leg despite having 4 horses running for me and the £3500 dividend certainly hasn't helped my mood any.

What with cackling Willie Carson, the awful Wiltshire / Parrott double act and all these losers this is fast becoming my least favourite Royal Ascot ever.

In fact the only thing that has made me smile all week was when I saw the ludicrous hat that Princess Eugene was wearing yesterday. It look liked a luminous green Sky satellite dish and the way it was perched on the front of her head looked as if she was trying to get reception for the At The Races satellite channel. All that money and still no style.

On to today and Henry has three Royal runners...

2.30 CHACHAMAIDEE £20 E/W

3.05 FATHER TIME £10 E/W

3.05 NATIVE RULER £20

We finally got some cash into the prize-fund yesterday when Henry's Flame of Gibraltar ran a fine race to finish second at 12/1. Here's hoping we can get a few more quid in the pot today.

Good luck,

Gavin.

ROYAL ASCOT DAY 3

D:Ream got it wrong as I can definitely say 'Things have not got any better' and my love affair with Royal Ascot is now at breaking point.

Paco's Boy wins a Group 1 mile, the favourite wins the Hunt Cup, the Australians win the sprints, the Yanks win the 2yo's, The Irish and French win the Group 1's and I, like Godolphin, win nothing.

Desperate times call for desperate measures! .

Our 'Enry was a bit unlucky today with Twice Over as he looked a sure thing for the frame 1/2 furlong out but obviously as with most good each way bets he weakened and finished 4th to deny us our place money.

He has three runners today and we're going large to try and get some money in the BBB pot....

£20ew FLAME OF GIBRALTAR 3.05 ASCOT

£20ew HYADES 4.20 ASCOT

£20ew ON OUR WAY 4.55 ASCOT

plus a £1ew Patent

and £16 on the Queen to wear a Green hat on Ladies Day. (I told you times were desperate!)

Surely we can get something out of that little lot.....

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ASCOT GOLD CUP

The big race of the day is the Gold Cup and according to the trends 8yo's can't win this race. If that is true then the first two in the betting are in trouble. If you also take into account the poor form of the Godolphin horses then 4 of the first 5 in the betting can be ignored. This leaves you with a few choices...

1) Patkai is a good thing and will win - probable
2) The winner will defy a long-standing trend - possible
3) There will be a shock result – not impossible
4) Godolphin will strike form and win the Gold Cup - unlikely

The trends say 1 & 2 can't happen, the bookmakers and punters reckon 3 won't occur and I can't see number 4 happening either.

I don't like this race at all and will expect the unexpected.

Good luck,

Gavin.

Royal Ascot, Day 2.....

Oh dear, what a disaster!

My day didn't start off too well when my son had all the milk before I got up and I couldn't have my daily bowl of Rice Krispies. I'm never at my best when I've not had my snap, crackle and pop in the morning.

Things went from bad to worse when all my horses run unplaced and the horse I put up as a lay went and won the first.

I then thought things had turned back again by getting the Placepot up at Ascot and was delighted to see it pay nearly £4ooo but when I checked my ticket I remembered I had changed my mind at the last minute and put Main Aim in instead of Paco Boy (and that was the only leg I went down in).

And then 10 minutes ago in a bid to take my mind off things I had a quick game of poker. And quick it was as I got knocked out on the very first hand when my pair of Aces got beaten by a pair of Kings.

But that's not even the worst of it. I foolishly promised all the punters in my betting shop that I'd run around Trecco Bay Holiday Park in my boxer shorts if Paco Boy won the Queen Anne. So if you here on the news of anyone being carted off by the police on a South Wales caravan site, it's probably me. I just hope it's not raining tomorrow.

As D:Ream once famously sang, 'Things, can only get better...'

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It's seems I'm destined not to be able to get this BB Prizepool up to a decent amount. But I'm going to keep trying and for today I'm going to put all our eggs in one basket and hope Henry can get us out of trouble with....

£25 each way Twice Over 3.45pm Ascot

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Staking Plans

Just a quick note to clear something up regarding the staking plans I covered last week....

I only used Spotlight selections for an example of how the staking plans would work and they were never intended to be used as tips for you to back. I gave enough losers out myself last week without adding to your misery with someone else's.

Apparently, a few readers have been blindly backing the horses and losing money. Obviously I'm sorry this has happened but I think I made it quite clear in my posts that they were being used solely as an independent source of results data.

I just hope you didn't use the Labouchere staking plan to back them....

Good luck,

Gavin.

ASCOT DAY 1

It's here at last, my favourite meeting of the year. I like Cheltenham, I like Aintree but I love Royal Ascot. The results have been kind to me over the years and I'm hoping I can continue that winning feeling this year too.
I even managed to tip the colour of the Queens hat on this blog last year! For those who are interested, this year on Ladies day it will be Green.

BONUS BALL BETS

As I promised on Saturday I'll be placing a series of bets this week at the Royal Meeting to try and boost the Prize Pool for all of you readers you were kind enough to enter the Classic Double BBB. Henry Cecil doesn't have any runners on the Tuesday but we'll be backing all of his for the rest of the week. Today I've come up with a few outsiders to try and boost the kitty....

And before anyone emails in to have a moan, yes I know these are different to the Trends Selections in my guide but these are the horses I would back if I wasn't restrained by picking my horses solely on past results. They are solely my attempt to boost the BB funds.

As always do what you like with them...back them, lay them or ignore them!

Queen Anne 2.30

It may be a Group 1 race but only two horses have won at the level before. There is however another runner who in his younger days ran a fine second in this highest of grades and at 66/1 might be worth a little each way dabble. He's in form, will be staying on well and I'd much rather back him than Aqlaam!

MAC LOVE will be the first bet £2.50ew at 66/1

Kings Stand 3.05

He did me a big favour at Newmarket so for old times sake I'll go with him here...

AMOUR PROPRE £10 win

St James Palace 3.45

I backed the next one a few times last season but could never catch him when he did win. He probably won't beat Mastercraftsman tomorrow but he might nick a place and at 20/1 that wouldn't be too bad...

SOUL CITY £5ew 20/1

Coventry Stakes 4.20

We went with this one in the National Stakes at Sandown in our recent trends guide but he could only finish 3rd that day. He was however staying on very strongly that night and is sure to appreciate the 6f here. Another big priced runner ...

RAINES CROSS £5ew 20/1

Ascot Stakes 4.55

If Som Tala is ridden from, or near, the front I think we'll see a change in recent fortunes for him. All of his best form has been when he has been ridden this way so come on Frankie, kick on!

SOM TALA £5ew 12/1

Windsor Castle 5.30

This is a tough race! We'll have another little speculative bet on a big outsider..

ITSTHURSDAYALREADY £5ew 20/1

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5 to lay?

For those of you who prefer to lay the horses rather than back them here are five horses that I think will get beat this week.

Queen Anne (Tuesday 2.30pm). Paco Boy

I just can't see him staying the mile in what is probably going to be a fiercely run race. With Gladiatorus surely doing his usual thing upfront this race could well be over by the furlong pole and Paco Boy will be hard pressed to lay down any sort of a challenge.

Gold Cup (Thursday 3.45pm) Yeats and Geordieland

They have filled the first two places in the Gold Cup for the last two years but it's not looking good for either of them this time around. You would have to go back all the way to 1900 to find the last 8yo to win the Gold Cup and that's a pretty big stat. 13 have tried, and failed, in the last 10 years alone. Mind you, you had to go about that far back to find the last French Bred to win the Grand National and we all know what happened to that stat!

Hampton Court Stakes (Thursday 4.55pm). Glass Harmonium.

This race will never be top of Sir Michael Stoute's list of favoured contests because in the last 10 years he has provided 3 x favs, 2 x 2nd favs and a 3rd fav and all were beaten including last year's favourite Kensington Oval. You have to admire him for having another go but the omens don't look good for this one.

Coronation Stakes (Friday 3.45pm) Elusive Wave

Placed horses from the French 1000 Guineas have a fairly decent record in the Coronation Stakes but that's not the case when it comes to the winner as all 7 to have run here in the last 14 years have been beaten.

Again, do what you like with them. Lay them, back them or ignore them.

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Trends Guide

And if all that's still not enough to satisfy your Royal Ascot Cravings then there's still plenty of time left to get your copy of the Royal Ascot Trends Guide.

If you don't fancy forking out for the full guide then there's also the choice of purchasing a special guide for each seperate day at just £9.95.

Simply click below to purchase....

>>> Click here for ROYAL ASCOT FESTIVAL TRENDS

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Staking Plans

After yesterday's set of results (2/1, loser, loser, loser, loser, loser) we'll have a final look at how it affected each of the staking plans before putting them to one side while we concentrate on the little matter of Royal Ascot.

Level Stakes

Starting bank £8849

6 bets of £100 for a return of £300

Finishing bank is £8549

Square Root Level Stakes

We start off at £8798 and our first bet is a £100 on a 2/1 winner but this isn't enough to get us back in profit so our stakes remain at £100

Finishing bank is £8498

Fibonacci

The bank is down to £6649 but we start with £200 on a 2/1 winner.

Unfortunately the next 5 bets lose with stakes of

£100, £100, £200, £300 & £500 meaning even more trouble for the system

Finishing bank is £5849

Reverse Labouchere

We start with £8586 and a £105 first bet which wins at 2/1

Adding the 7 to the end of the chain our next bet becomes £135, which loses, and is followed by

£120 bet on a loser

£60 bet on a loser and the end of the chain again. Starting the sequence back up we stake

£105 loser

£105 loser

finishing the day with a bank of

£8271 our next stake is £105 and the chain is x-x-3-4-x-x

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Good luck,

Gavin.

Staking Plan Day 3 & 4

It seems spotlight in the Racing Post carried on where he left off on Friday as he managed another 5 losers (+ 2 non runners) yesterday to go with the 5 from the day before.

At least it will show how well (or badly!) each staking plan is able to cope with such a losing run.

LEVEL STAKES

Starting bank £9849. All bets £100
10 losers means -£1000
making the bank £8849


SQUARE ROOT STAKING PLAN

Starting bank £9798. Next bet £100
As we remain under the £10000 initial bank all losers are for £100 meaning the loss over the two days is also £1000
The bank is now at £8798


FIBONACCI

Uh oh, I smell trouble...
Starting bank is £10,149 and our first bet for Friday is £500
It lost as did the next with £800 riding on it.
That's the end of our the chain so it's time to lick our wounds and go back to the start...
£100 loser
£100 loser
£200 loser
Onto Saturday
£300 loser
£500 loser £800 loser

Another chain completed without success. Back to the beginning
£100 loser
£100 loser

Gulp! The bank is now at £6649 and our next bet is £200


If you thought that was bad, here comes the....

LABOUCHERE PLAN

We start off with £8734, a first bet of £675 and a very long chain (and about to get a whole lot bigger) that looks like x-x-x-x-x-x-7-10-x-x-17-24-31-38
£675 loser
£780 loser
£885 loser
£990 loser
£1095 los.....Where's that shotgun........BANG!

Time to knock the Labouchere on the head, it doesn't work backing these bigger priced horses while using this staking plan as it relies on a much better strike rate than we are able to achieve.

So if that isn't working then surely the...

REVERSE LABOUCHERE must be?

Er no. As both systems were designed for betting on even money chances the theory was that if the original Labouchere plan is failing then doing the opposite would surely succeed. Which does sound logical but unfortunately we're not dealing with even money shots here and until we get a winner we can't see how backing at bigger odds will affect this particular staking plan.

But one of the things that the Reverse Labouchere was created for was that it sets out to try and limit your losses when these bad runs come along. So let's see if it can do that.....

Starting bank £9636 and a first bet of the day of £105. The chain of numbers is at the start i.e. 1-2-3-4-5-6
£105 loser
£105 loser
£105 loser
reset the chain
£105 loser
£105 loser
£105 loser
reset the chain
£105 loser
£105 loser
£105 loser
reset the chain
£105 loser
Loss of £1050

Bad, but not much worse than the Level Stakes and it has limited the losses like it intended to.
Finishing bank £8586
Next bet £105
Chain x-2-3-4-5-x

Today's Spotlight selections from Salisbury;
It's a Date, Esteem Machine, Sunceleb, Diana's Choice, Volochvoka and Broughtons Paradis

Gavin.

BBB News.....

BONUS BALL BET

Oh dear! After last week's unsuccessful Classic double (close but no cigar) and a complete blowout from our other horses we're left staring at an empty pot for this month's Bonus Ball Prizefund.

But fear not! For all those of you (and there were hundreds of you) who sent in a number for a share of our double attempt last week I've got another cunning plan to boost our bonus ball betting bank. I've gone a bit mad and signed up for just about every betting site on the internet and now have a wheelbarrow full of Free betting vouchers.

My aim is now to use these free bets over the 5 days of Ascot and get some money into the pot. I'll be doing every one of Henry Cecils runners at the meeting and picking two horses a day to put some cash on. The stakes will be decided once I've counted up how much I've got to punt with.

Any returns from these special Ascot bets will only be available to those readers who emailed their guess in time to qualify for the Classic Double last week i.e. before 7.30pm last Saturday.

You can still enter the competition for this month but you if you win you will only share the Saturday BBB winnings.

Okay, I hope that's clear. Here are today's Saturday BB Bets....

A trends based look at the 3.10 York

12 of the last 13 winners ran within the last month so we lose...
Favourite Girl (35),Masterofdisguise (50),Dark Mischief (41),Lucky Numbers (36),The Kyllachy Kid (37),Kingswinford (35) & Gone Hunting (77)

12/13 had 4 or more career runs so we lose....
Macdillon

As 12/13 carried 9st or less we lose ....
Proclaim,Thunderous Mood,Akhenaten & Swiss Diva

And 12/13 ran in a h'cap last time meaning we now lose
Imperial Guest & Prime Mood

12/13 ran in a sprint (5or6f) last time....
Quanah Parker, Definightly & Parisian Pyramid didn't

11/13 made top 5 last time.
We lose Rawayton

and are left with 2 Sloop Johnb & Coleorton Choice,

With 9/13 winners running from the front or prominent and Coleorton Choice a confirmed front runner plus Sloop Johnb's only 2 attempts at 6F seeing him finish 9/10 & 10/16 we'll go with the former and make the likeliest trends winner Coleorton Choice.

3.10 York Selection: Coleorton Choice

My thanks to Gary for the following 2 selections....

4.00 Sandown
Despite 6 '0's in his form there are plenty of reasons for thinking Blessed Place can instigate a revival of fortunes today. His 3 runs this season have all been at 6F on fast ground but today he encounters 5F on a softish surface which are his ideal conditions. He also has the tongue tie back on for the first time this season and is reunited with B.Clay who has won on him twice. His last win was over this C & D and drawn in stall 12 means this confirmed front runner can grab the far rail.
Selection: Blessed Place

2.20 Sandown

Although she's not won since her debut Maggie Lou looks to be well handicapped and sure to appreciate this stiffer test. Ridden for the first time today by A.Munro she should improve on her staying on 4th at Haydock last time and given that she has already won on softish ground and the manner in which she stayed on last time, this stiff 7F suggests that she could be a nice each way wager.
Selection: Maggie Lou

Well do 3 x £2.50ew Singles and a 50pew Patent

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Staking plans.

I'm a bit pushed for time today as I have my son's School Fete to attend so I will go through both yesterdays results (5 losers for Spotlight of the Racing Post!) and todays runners in a special Sunday post.

We'll stick with Spotlight at York where he's gone for...
Hillview Boy, Acrosstic, Dark Mischief, Marching Time, William Morgan, Catigo and Castles in the Air.
Remember: The horses used are not given out as tips! I'm just using them as examples.

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ROYAL ASCOT FESTIVAL TRENDS

Only 3 days until the meeting starts and the Guide is really taking shape now.

Days 1 - 3 are now ready for download with all the usual trends, facts, figures, stats and ratings included. We're just waiting on the final 48 hour decs to complete the missing blanks and make those all important selections. There are a few races where we have already gone through the trends to find the winner and you can see these at the end of each section.

The fully completed guides for each day will be ready 24 hours before that day's racing starts and can be downloaded as many times as you like. All members will be notified whenever the Guides are updated.

The finished guide will be about 200 pages long and cover every race run at the Festival.

One of the runners from our Ante-Post sheet is now a non runner but the other 3 all look intented runners and are still available at 25/1 twice and 40/1. All have perfect trends profiles and look to be worth a small each way investment at this time. Remember it was on this sheet that we first highlighted 33/1 winner Something Wells at the Cheltenham Festival back in March.

To purchase your copy simply login to the Members Area, if you are already signed up, or click below to go straight to the payment page...
>>> Click here for ROYAL ASCOT FESTIVAL TRENDS

It promises to be a great meeting and we've left no stone unturned to bring you the definitive Bookie Bashing guide. GET YOUR COPY NOW!

Good luck,
Gavin.

Staking Plans...Day 2

Using yesterday's results we have loser/loser/9-4 winner/1-3 winner/loser/loser/loser/loser
Let's see how each staking plan coped with those results....

LEVEL STAKES PLAN
Starting bank...£10,191
£100 on each selection = -£342
Finishing bank...£9849

SQUARE ROOT STAKING PLAN
Starting bank....£10,182
1st bet £113.49 lost
2nd bet £108.31 lost
This now takes us under our £10000 starting bank so we revert to £100 level stakes
3rd bet £100 won at 9/4 and puts the bank back into profit...£10,186
4th bet £113.63 won at 1/3 for a profit of £37
5th bet £114.93 lost
6th bet £110.39 lost and again takes our bank below the £10,000
7th bet £100 lost
8th bet £100 lost

leaving the bank at £9798 and our next bet as £100

FIBONACCI

Starting bank £10,191 and £200 bet
1st bet lost
2nd bet is now £300 which also lost
3rd bet £500 which wins at 9/4
4th bet is back to the start of the number series £100 which wins at 1-3
5th bet is again at the start £100 which lost
6th bet £100 lost
7th bet £200 lost
8th bet £300 lost

leaving our bank at £10,149 but our next bet as £500

LABOUCHERE

The bank starts at £10,145 and our first bet as £195
which lost so the chain now looks like x-x-3-4-x-x-7-10-13 and the next bet now becomes 16 x £15 = £240
Another loser and we now stake £285 (19 units) which thankfully won at 9/4
We're not out of trouble yet as our next bet is £255 (17 units) which also won but at 1/3
The number chain now looks like x-x-x-x-x-x-7-10-x-x
Now our stake stays at 17 units and loses
as does the next with £360 (24 units) on it
plus the next with £465 (31 units)
and the next £570 (38 units).

The bank is at £8734 and our next bet a whopping £675.
The number chain now looks like x-x-x-x-x-x-7-10-x-x-17-24-31-38

Pass the shotgun!

REVERSE LABOUCHERE

Here we start off with £10,165 and a stake of £135 . The number chain is x-x-3-4-5-6-x-x
Our first bet loses so we cross off the 3 and the 6
and stake £135 again (6+3) which loses again and wipes out our chain.

The staking system was originally designed for roulette and betting even money fancies (i.e. Red or Black, Odd or Even etc..). Doing every bet at evens when you wipe out the chain you will lose 21 units, in this case £315, but as we backed a 3/1 winner yesterday though the chain has been cleared we have only lost 7 units (£105) and our bank now stands at £9895.

So we re-write the number sequence out again 1-2-3-4-5-6 and start from the beginning...
First bet is £105 or 7 units(6+1) and wins at 9/4
add the 7 to the end and our next bet is 8 units (£120) and wins at 1/3
8 to the end and we now stake £135.
It lost so we cross out the 8 and 1 and stake £135 (2=7 units)
Another loser and again we cross out first and last leaving x-x-3-4-5-6-x-x
We bet £135 again (3+6) and lose again
Another £135 bet (4 + 5) and we have another loser that wipes out our second chain.

This time we have lost £259 and our bank stands at £9636.
The number chain resets to 1-2-3-4-5-6 to make our first bet today £105 (6 + 1 units)

Today's horses come from York...
Parbold Hill, Handsome Falcon, Hawk Mountain, Orpen Arms, Sloop JohnB, Spirit of Adjisa.

I'll be back tomorrow with all the latest progress.

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ROYAL ASCOT FESTIVAL TRENDS

Only 4 days until the meeting starts and the Guide is beginning to take shape now.

Day 1 and day 2 are now ready for download with all the usual trends, facts, figures, stats and ratings included. We're just waiting on the final 48 hour decs to complete the missing blanks and make those all important selections. There are a few races where we have already gone through the trends to find the winner and you can see these at the end of each section.

Each day will be ready 24 hours before the meeting starts and can be downloaded as many times as you like. All members will be notified whenever the Guides are updated.

The finished guide will be about 200 pages long and cover every race run at the Festival.

Also ready for download now is our famous '4 for the meeting' ante-post sheet. This time we've got a 12/1 hope, two 25/1 shots and a big 40/1 outsider for the big race on the final day of the meeting.All have perfect trends profiles and have got to be worth a small each way investment at this time. Remember it was on this sheet that we first highlighted 33/1 winner Something Wells at the Cheltenham Festival back in March.

To purchase your copy simply login to the Members Area, if you are already signed up, or click below to go straight to the payment page...

>>> Click here for ROYAL ASCOT FESTIVAL TRENDS

It promises to be a great meeting and we've left no stone unturned to bring you the definitive Bookie Bashing guide. GET YOUR COPY NOW!

----------

FRIDAY FUN

With Royal Ascot fast approaching what better time to take a look back at last years meeting in all it's glory...



Good luck,
Gavin.

Click here for ROYAL ASCOT FESTIVAL TRENDS

Staking plan experiment...DAY 1

Okay, the first day and from Wednesday's 6 runners we had, in the order that they ran,...
10-11 winner / Non Runner / Non Runner / 3-1 winner / Loser / Loser

Let's see what difference it makes to each Staking System.

First up is the LEVEL STAKES PLAN which simply has £100 on every selection.

Bank start £10,000

£100 at 3/1, £100 at 10/11, £100 Loser, £100 Loser

The bank finishes at £10,191 and the next stake is £100

Now we will see what difference the SQUARE ROOT STAKING PLAN makes...

Bank Start £10,000

First bet £100 wins at 10/11. Bank is now £10,091

Next bet is £109.54 on a 3/1 winner. Bank is now £10,419

Next bet is £120.47 which loses as does the following bet of £117.29

The bank finishes at £10, 182 and the next stake is £113.49

On to the much maligned FIBONACI SERIES STAKING PLAN..

Starting bank £10,000 and if we get a winner we'll go back to the start of the series. 6 consecutive losers and we'll give up and also start again. We'll use the 1,1,2,3,5,8 sequence.

First bet £100 wins at 10/11. Start again...

Second bet is £100 on a 3/1 winner...Start again

next bet is £100 on a loser so the next bet is £100 which also loses.

The bank finishes at £10,191 but our next bet is £200

The infamous LABOUCHERE STAKING SYSTEM....

Start bank is £10,000 we'll use the 1-2-3-4-5-6 = 21 units plan and each unit will be a £15 stake

First bet is 7 (6+1) x £15=£105 which wins at 10/11. Cross out the 6 and the 1 from the chain.

Then we stake 7 (5+2) x £15 = £105 on a 3/1 winner. Cross out the 5 and the 2.

Next bet is 7 (4+3) x £15 =£105 which loses so we add the 7 to the chain so it reads x-x-3-4-x-x-7

So now we have to stake 10 (3+7) x £15 = £150 on another loser. Add the 10 to the end of the number sequence.

We now have a bank of £10,145 a number sequence of x-x-3-4-x-x-7-10 and a next bet of 13 (10+3) x £15 = £195. Eeek!

Now to the modified REVERSE LABOUCHERE...

Same £10,000 starting bank, same £15 betting units and the same sequence of numbers 1-2-3-4-5-6. If we hit 63 units profit we will take our money and run! i.e. start again

First bet is again 7 x £15 = £105 on a 10/11 winner. This time we add the 7 to the end of the chain to give us 1-2-3-4-5-6-7

Our follow up bet now becomes 8 x £15 = £120. It wins at 3/1 and we add the 8 to the end.

Next bet is 9 x £15 = £135 which loses. We cross off the 1 and the 8 to give us a number sequence of x-2-3-4-5-6-7-x.

Our next bet is again 9 (2=7) x £15 = £135 which also loses. Cross out the first and last number and we end the day with a bank of £10,165 a number sequence of x-x-3-4-5-6-x-x and our starting bet for the next day of £135 (6+3)

Onto the MARTINGALE which had the following results...

Loser / Evens winner / 8-11 winner / 10-11 winner / Loser / 10-11 winner

The same £10,000 starting bank and £100 win for the first bet. Double the stake every loser. Back to the original stake for every winner.

-£100 (next bet £200)

+£200

+£73

+£91

-£100 (next bet £200)

+£182 gives us a total bank now of £10, 346 and our next bet of £100

Todays selections come from Newbury and are Party Doctor, Welsh Anthem, Splash Down, Hidden Brief, Kinetix, Integria, Devil to Pay and Dragon Slayer. I'll be back tomorrow with the updates.

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I'll be having just the one bet today to try and boost my Ascot punting fund and that will be a double on a couple of Henry Cecil horses....

Tomintoul Singer (2.20 Yarm) and my old friend Apple Charlotte (2.40 Newb)

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ROYAL ASCOT FESTIVAL TRENDS

With Ascot less than a week away we here at Nag HQ have been working around the clock to bring you the biggest and best Trends Guide yet.

We've got all the usual trends, facts, figures, stats and ratings but we've added even more stuff to give you the best chance of beating the bookies this Ascot.

The finished guide will be about 200 pages long and cover every race run at the Festival.

Ready for download now is our famous '4 for the meeting' ante-post sheet. This time we've got a 12/1 hope, two 25/1 shots and a big 40/1 outsider for the big race on the final day of the meeting.
All have perfect trends profiles and have got to be worth a small each way investment at this time. Remember it was on this sheet that we first highlighted 33/1 winner Something Wells at the Cheltenham Festival back in March.

The full Ante-Post version for the whole card on Tuesday is also ready for download NOW. All 6 races in the new format with all the new features and added stats including horse profiling, trends scores and draw analysis.

To purchase your copy simply login to the Members Area, if you are already signed up, or click below to go straight to the payment page...

>>> Click here for ROYAL ASCOT FESTIVAL TRENDS

It promises to be a great meeting and we've left no stone unturned to bring you the definitive Bookie Bashing guide. GET YOUR COPY NOW!

Good luck,

Gavin.

Staking Plan Experiment...

Following on from last weeks post about Staking Plans I thought it might be an idea to put a few into practice so you can see the different outcomes you get from using different ideas. It might help us make a better judgement as to the merits of each separate system and see which one works the best.

To do this I'll use a newspaper tipster (spotlight in the Racing Post), a theoretical starting bank (£10,000) and concentrate on the main meeting of the day. The experiment will run until next Monday.

We'll test the following staking plans and the first bet for all of them will be 1% of the bank (£100)

Level Stakes

Square Root Level Stakes

Fibonnaci

Labouchere and Reverse Labouchere

Plus we'll run a Martingale system starting with £100 and using any horse that is roughly even money according to the Racing Post.

PLEASE NOTE: The horses used are not given out as tips! I'm just using them as examples.

So today's main meeting looks to be Haydock and Spotlight selections are;

Race 1 Gloucester

Race 2 Vanishing Grey

Race 3 Rainy Night

Race 4 Global City

Race 5 Gala Casino Star

Race 6 Mega Watt

Martingale six horses: Maidtorum (2.00), Mountain Cat (2.20), Hand Painted (4.20), Fremen (8.40), Espiritu (4.30), Baglioni (6.30)

The first bet in all systems is £100 and the results throughout the afternoon and the rules of the staking plan will dictate all of the subsequent bets.

If you have no idea what I'm talking about then simply check back tomorrow to see how they fare.

Good luck,

Gavin.

Weekend Wrap

5 things I've learnt this weekend....

1) Aiden O'Brien should have been a politician....

Having watched Rishi Persad's interview with O'Brien shortly before the Derby it seems Europe's top trainer could have been equally talented in the political sphere. It was a simple enough question, 'which one do you think will do the best?' and was one that the viewers at home would have appreciated the trainers thoughts on. Cue a quick sidestep, total disregard for the question and the usual 'they're all nice horses', 'they'll all run well', 'they're all here to do their best'....yawn, yawn, yawn. Yes we know that Aiden but which one is the best of the 6? We knew what Johnny Murtagh thought was the best, we now know which one was the best but it would have been nice to know what the trainer thought beforehand even if he said they don't work together and he had no idea. I say it's time to get rid of Carson, Balding and Persad and bring in Jeremy Paxman.

2) My dislike of Willie Carson is growing....

having watched most of Saturday's coverage from the beeb I still cannot work out why they employ Carson. He brings absolutely nothing to the table and is really annoying. If you don't know what I'm banging on about watch next week at Ascot and listen to what he says. He simply repeats everything that has previously been mentioned by either the excellent Jim McGrath or Claire Balding and then ends it with that really annoying, grating cackle. Errrgh! my blood is boiling just writing him. Deep breaths. Breath, Gavin, breath, I think it's time to calm down and walk my son to school....

Okay, I'm back.

3) Youmzain is not a horse to be trusted...

Not for the first time in his career Youmzain looked like a horse who's not that bothered about winning. He's won a couple of Group 1's abroad and ran second in two Arc's but he's yet to win a really prestigious prize and I'm not sure he ever will now. There were excuses, not for the first time, in Dubai last time where he finished an 'unlucky' fourth but the truth is when push comes to shove he just hasn't got the heart that some of the other Group 1 horses have. Now don't get me wrong, I'd love to own a horse that always runs so well and has earned so much prizemoney but from a punters point of view he's a horse that can't be relied on when the going gets tough.

4) In a 2 horse race I'll always come second....

Having got both the Derby and Oaks down to two horses you'd think that I would have backed at least one of the winners wouldn't you? but no, not me. According to the trends the Oaks was a straight fight between Sariska and Midday. The Derby only two could win, Sea the Stars or Fame And Glory. Hooray you cry, you got it right, the forecast in both races too! Bravo.

Well unfortunately although I chose Sariska and it was in our BB Bet for my own personal bets I deserted her in favour of Henry Cecil's filly and as you know went for Fame and Glory in the Derby. Meaning what should have been one of the best weekends ever turned into a terrible two days and another golden opportunity lost.

At least my favourite meeting is just around the corner. Roll on Royal Ascot.....

5) The word equine can be pluralised......

Unlike the word 'sheep' did you know it's possible to pluralise the word equine? I didn't either and it caused a bit of a storm over the Scrabble board last time Matt visited. In the usual heated and extremely competitively fought three handed Scrabble game (me, my Dad and Matt) my father attempted to place the 's' on the end of Equine and all hell broke loose. He swore it was a word, we swore it wasn't and the ref had to be called in. After consultation with the Official Scrabble Word Book it was decided it wasn't a word as it wasn't in the OSWB. End of story, we were right.

Well not quite! My dad is not known for letting things like this lie and so he went on a one man crusade to prove the words legitimacy. And would you believe, two weeks later, what word should come up on Countdown? Yep EQUINES. Dictionary corner explained that if the word relates to horses and horses alone then EQUINE can be pluralised. Still not content to leave it at that, I received a newspaper cutting yesterday from my dad with the word EQUINES in some racing feature from the Daily Mail. Ok dad I believe you! and Matt if you're reading, next time you see my dad can you please acknowledge that he was right just so we can shut him up.

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It seems my feature on the staking plans has gone down very well with you, the readers, and therefore I'd like to continue with a few more. So, if you want one explaining or have heard about one but don't know how it works then either email me at gavin@nag-nag-nag.co.uk or leave a comment in the box at the end of this post with the name of the Staking Plan.

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It's my sons Sports Day today so I'm just off for a quick jog around the block to loosen the muscles for the Dad's race. I reckon I'm a 20/1 shot having seen a few of the other dad's in the playground but if there's a weight and age allowance system in operation it might just be worth a punt....

Good luck,

Gavin.

Staking Plans continued..

A couple more staking plans....

The Kelly Plan

I'll be honest here and say that I had never heard of this staking plan before Jack put in a request for it in the comments box at the end of last week. Half an hour later, having googled 'kelly staking plan gambling' I was still none the wiser. Thanks Jack, you could have asked for 'Level Stakes Staking'!

Well, having stuck with it hopefully I've got it sussed but if my explanation is wrong then I'm sure someone out there will be putting me right.

It's quite complex and relies on a lot of estimated or assumed variables and certainly won't be to everyone's taste but here's how it works....

The Kelly Plan is based on something called the Kelly Constant and was developed in 1956 by mathematician John L. Kelly. You have to be able to estimate the chances of your selection yourself and then compare this to the actual odds available. If you are able to do this better than the bookmakers you'll be fine as using the Kelly Criteria will optimise your staking. Unfortuantely for most of us that is a big IF!

So firstly, you have your bank, say £100, and then you pick your horse out and make him a 3/1 chance to win the race. You convert these odds to a %, in this example 3/1 becomes 25%

The best price you can get on your selection with the bookmakers is currently 5/1. The next step is to work out your stake by using the Kelly formula which is

[ (odds x estimation) -1 / (odds - 1) ] x 100 = stake

or using our example figures....

[ ( 5 x 0.25) - 1 / (5-1) ] x 100

which equals £6.25. This is your stake.

As long as you are able to evaluate 'value' correctly this Staking Plan will work for you.

As I said it's not for everyone and does involve a fair degree of estimation but apparently no self-respecting professional punter can do without this Staking Plan.

Like all staking systems there have been many adaptations and with the Kelly Plan there is also the 'Proportional Kelly' that divides the % by 2 to give less aggressive staking and helps minimize any risk of getting the odds estimation wrong.

Benefits: Optimises your staking to get the maximium benefit from any winner

Downfalls: You need to be able to correctly assess a market and know your odds %'s

Requirements: Maths Degree would help

Probable Outcome of using this plan: You'll realise that calculating odds is best left to the bookmakers and go back to using Square Root Staking System

Type of person this system suits (suited): Einstein, John L. Kelly

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The Retirement Plan

The grandly named Retirement Plan is another complex staking plan but one that is held in high regard by a lot of pro-punters.

The first of the many variables used is the average odds of the winners you back. It's probably best to record your wagers over a period of time and when you have a large enough sample size (say 20 winners) work out this average. Simply add up the odds and divide by the number of winners. For this example we'll say it worked out at 3/1

Next is your Bank. We'll start with £10,000 and our first bet will be 1% or £100

Now we need a Divisor which is simply double the average odds. In this example is 6

And a Target which is simply the Divisor times the Stake. 6 x 100=600

A couple of rules...

Any losses are added to the Target and after 6 losers you add one to the Divisor for every subsequent bet until you get a winner. It's very important to keep a track of all your bets and all the variables you used as this will become important once the next winner arrives.

Just as you increase the Target by adding on the losing stakes so you decrease the Target once you back a winner by taking off the bet profit. When this happens you now have a look through you past bets to see roughly what Divisor you were using the last time your Target was at this level. This then becomes your new Divisor and as before follows the same +1 rule for each loser. One final thing, every time your bank increases by £200 you add 10 to the target.

Still with me? I'll try and make it clearer with an example...

Your bank is £10,000 the divisor is 6 and target 600. Your first bet is therefore 100 (600/6)

It loses so the Target is now 700 (600+losing 100 stake). The Divisor is still 6 so your next stake is £115 (700/6).

Another loser means the Target is now 825. The Divisor remains at 6 giving you a stake of £135 (825/6)

That loses, as does the next (£158), the one after that (£185) and again (£215). The Target is now £1508

We've now gone 6 bets without a win meaning the Divisor becomes 7 and our next bet is £215 (1508/7). One more loser and the Divisor becomes 8 and the next bet £215 (1723/8)

Three more losers follow with stakes of £215, £215, £215 before we finally get a winner at 4/1.

Hooray! The profit of £860 is taken from the target which leaves us with a new figure of £1723.

We look back through our records to see the last time we were at this figure and see that the Divisor at the time was 8. You carry on again applying the same rules as before.

Another new staking system to me but one I quite like the look of. I may do my own investigation into this plan over the next couple of weeks. Obviously I'll let you know how it gets on.

Benefits: Reclaims your losses while still trying to reach the required targets.

Downfalls: It's probably too aggressive and will ultimately fail.

Requirements: Records of all bets placed. Spreadsheet or good old fashioned Pen & Paper.

Probable Outcome of using this plan: Another theoretically sound staking system that doesn't work and has you starting again in your search for that perfect plan

Type of person this system suits (suited): While I test it, me!

I'll be back tomorrow with the weekend wrap

Good Luck,

Gavin.

Halfway to paradise.....

Are you feeling it?

We're halfway there to the big win after Sariska won the Oaks yesterday. Tipped up in my FREE Oaks and Derby Trends Guide we are now sweating on our Derby runner to provide us with a £1500 payout and give some lucky readers a share of all this cash.

You really don't want to miss out on this opportunity. When was the last time you read a Blog that was giving away £1500 with absolutely no catch whatsoever? (Well apart from the one where we need Fame and Glory to win the Derby)

1 email is all it takes. Less than 30 secs! Get the Bonus Ball correct in the lottery draw on Wednesday 1st July and you have a chance of scooping all the cash yourself. Having had a quick look through the entries already I can tell you that some numbers have none or just 1 person picking them.

REMEMBER: YOU HAVE UNTIL 7.30PM TONIGHT TO REGISTER. AFTER THIS TIME YOU WILL LOSE THE CHANCE TO STAKE YOUR CLAIM ON ANY WINNINGS FROM THIS DOUBLE.

All you have to do is send a number (1-49) to

quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk

But I repeat, you must do this before 7.30pm tonight.

You'll still be able to enter this months BBB after this time but you won't qualify for any of the Prize Fund Double money.

And remember....This competition is open to everyone who reads this blog, it's completely free to enter, there is absolutely no catch and it only takes seconds to enter.

There are no sign-ups, no links and your email address is never passed on to anyone else. In fact, the only email you will ever receive is the one telling you that you have won. GUARANTEED!

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BONUS BALL BET

Just in case our Derby runner doesn't come up with the goods I'd better have a go at getting some cash in the Prizefund the usual way. i.e. with 4 for today......

First one is my brothers big tip for the Dash at Epsom. He emailed me Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and again yesterday to tell me this is going to win. It's not a trends horse and you won't find it tipped in our guide but he really fancies it so I'll include it in today's bet to hopefully keep him happy...

3.00 Epsom: SIRENS GIFT

Another horse that isn't in the trends guide but will be in the BBB is Henry Cecil's horse in the first. It's not often you see a winning Cecil runner make his debut in a handicap off a rating of only 83 and though he won't get an easy lead like he did last time he may still be able to nick this race from the front....

1.25 Epsom: SAM SHARP

Stoute sending one to Musselburgh? Yep. Okay it's a £25k race but you don't see him North of the border too often and I think it's worth taking note of. His charge ran a fine third to improving Aqwaal last time out and must have a great chance of bringing the cash down South.

2.50 Mussel: HOLYROOD

Another 25k race follows 3o minutes later and is run over 5f. Plenty in with a chance but one filly has been running very well of late and is now on for a 4-timer. A course and distance winner already she has won 6 of her last 8 and looks to be still improving....

3.20 Mussel: JACONET


4 x £2.50ew singles and a 25pew Lucky 15


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Festival Trends Guide

We had a great day yesterday with 14/1 winner Mac Love as our clear top-rated in the first, Tartan Gigha (9/2) and Sariska (9/4) both Trends Horses, the tricast in the second race, forecast in the Oaks, two lay selections getting beaten and to top it all off the Placepot to 154 units! Roll on Saturday...

If you want to see what we fancy for Saturday's supporting card you can still buy the guide for tomorrows 7 races for just £5.95. Simply click below.....

Epsom Derby Meeting from Festival Trends

Good luck,
Gavin.

P.S. Remember, one FREE email and you stand the chance of winning £1500+ this month.

quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk

Breaking the bank in Monte Carlo....

Today's post is a bit longer than usual due to me rambling on about a very special staking plan. Nevertheless I hope you enjoy it...

PRICEWISE

It may be the world's best tipping column but yet again Tom Segal has headlined a horse that is anything but wisely priced. His selection for the Coronation Cup today is Duncan and whether it wins or not is irrelevant, the fact is that at 13/2 it is grossly underpriced and is definitely not value. No doubt because he has tipped it the horse will become a steamer and return 4/1 but a horse only just out of handicap company running in a Group 1 against confirmed Group 1 horses deserves to be twice that price.

This column is supposed to be about finding and highlighting the value in a race but tipping a 10/1 shot at 13/2 isn't holding true to those ideals. No doubt Duncan will probably go and win now, beating my fancy in the process, but he certainly won't be carrying any of my money...

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Enough of the ranting it's time to get carry on where we left off with our look at the various staking plans on offer. On Monday after the Epsom meeting has finished I'll be examining just why a staking plan is important to successful betting.

STAKING PLANS

As I mentioned, a few of these plans will now get a bit more mathematically challenging and while I've tried my best to be as clear as possible if you have any observations or questions please email me at gavin@nag-nag-nag.co.uk or leave a comment at the foot of this post (where it usually says 0 comments)

LABOUCHERE / REVERSE LABOUCHERE

This system is sometimes called the 'Cancellation System' and came to the fore after forming the basis of a roulette system that was apparently used in the mid 60's to break the bank many times over in Monte Carlo. A chap called Norman Leigh took a team of roulette novices to the South of France in the summer of 1966 and took the casino's in Nice for a very large amount of money. In two weeks he and his team were banned from every casino in France due to their continued success and you can read all about his exploits and the system itself in an excellent book called 'Thirteen against the bank'. It used to be quite a rare book and hard to get hold of but I'm pretty sure it was re-printed a few years back and is now freely available on Amazon. For anyone who likes reading about roulette systems or even gambling related stories I thoroughly recommend you get hold of a copy of this book. Or you could borrow mine.

Okay, I digress the staking plan works like this....
You start the Labouchere Staking plan by beginning with any series of numbers, we'll use 1-2-3-4-5-6, and the idea is to cancel out all these numbers. You do this by staking the 1st and last number added together i.e. 1+6 and if you win you cross out both of these numbers from the sequence, if you lose you add the last bet made to the end of the series of Labouchere numbers. If you are successful in cancelling out the entire Labouchere sequence, you will win exactly 21 units or 1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 (=21).

With me so far? Here's an example...

-Your first bet is 7 units (6+1) and say it loses. You then add the 7 to the end of the sequence to make your new Labouchere chain 1-2-3-4-5-6-7.
-Your next bet is now 8 units (1+7) and this one wins. So you now cross out the first and last numbers and have a sequence which now looks like x-2-3-4-5-6-x.
-Adding the first and last numbers again your next bet will be 8 units (2+6) which is another loser. 8 is added to the end and your chain is now x-2-3-4-5-6-x-8.
-This time you are staking 10 units (2+8) and you have a winner. Cross out those numbers and you are left with x-x-3-4-5-6-x-x.
-Your next bet is 9 units and you win again. The chain becomes x-x-x-4-5-x-x-x and your final bet becomes 9 units (4+5). It wins and you have successfully cancelled out the Labouchere sequence. Time to start again....

Phew! If every bet you make is at evens you will make your 21 points profit but obviously if you are backing horses the prices will vary and this staking plan has the capabilities to make you very rich indeed. Unfortunately, it can also make you very, very poor too.

Benefits: If you were to hit a winning streak the potential for winning is massive
Downfalls: If you were to hit a losing streak the potential for losing is massive
Requirements: A history of lunacy in the family
Probable Outcome of using this plan: Being led away by a bunch of men in white coats
Type of person this system suits (suited): Fools, mad men and lunatics

Back to Norman Leigh and his band of intrepid roulette warriors. I said that the Labouchere staking plan formed the basis of his system and what he did was quite clever and in theory should have worked. He researched every roulette staking system in history to find out which one was the worst and apparently found the Labouchere plan was responsible for more suicides than any other system. He then simply did the reverse.
This gave birth to the appropriately named......

REVERSE LABOUCHERE

The Reverse Labouchere Staking Plan uses a sequence of numbers in the same way the normal Labouchere staking plan does but instead of crossing out the numbers when you win and adding the number to the end when you lose it does the reverse. i.e. when you lose you cross out the first and last numbers and when you win you add your stake to the end.

This has the advantage of protecting your bank as the most you can lose every time you run a sequence is the 21 units. The most you can win now becomes infinite.

Using the same example as before...
-Your first bet is 7 units (6+1) and say it loses. You then cross out the first and last to make your new Labouchere chain x-2-3-4-5-6-x.
-Your next bet is now 8 units (2+6) and this one wins. So you now you add this stake to the end and have a sequence which now looks like x-2-3-4-5-6-x-8
-Adding the first and last numbers again your next bet will be 10 units (2+8) which is another loser. Cross out the numbers and your chain is now x-x-3-4-5-6-x-x.
-This time you are staking 9 units (3+6) and you have a winner. Add it back on and you are left with x-x-3-4-5-6-x-x-9.
-Your next bet is 12 units and you win again. The chain becomes x-x-3-4-5-6-x-x-9-12 and your next bet becomes 15 units (3+12).....

.....and so on until you either win your fortune or experience a losing streak and cross out the chain. If every bet you placed was at evens then even if the chain went on and on the most you will lose is the original 21 units. The best way to use this staking plan is to set yourself a stop win limit (say 105 units) and when you reach this limit, quit!

As you can see this system really has the power to exploit a winning run and the most you will lose each time you run a Labouchere sequence is 21 units. But in our example you have to win at least 1 in 5 sequences just to break even.

Benefits: Has a stop loss limit built into it. Exploits winning runs to the maximum.
Downfalls: A few losers will wipe out all the profits of that good run. Very volatile
Requirements: Discipline. Small stakes. Piece of paper and pen.
Probable Outcome of using this plan: You'll have fun for a while but give up with it. You'll get to read a good book!
Type of person this system suits: Anyone with a bit of gamble in them. Me!

FOOTNOTE: Since the advent of super computers and data analysis many hours have been spent running simulations to test out the reverse Labouchere roulette system and every one came up with the same result - It doesn't work. This has led many sceptics to dismiss Norman Leigh's claims or to put it down simply as a two week run of good fortune.

Whatever the real reason it's still a great story, fantastically written and well worth a read.

As you can see I could talk for ages on the subject and due to the length of the post already I'll have to do a Sunday Post to take a look at The Kelly Plan (sorry Jack) and the Retirement Staking System. Sorry....

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BBB SPECIAL

Don't forget I will be placing a £100 double on the Oaks/Derby this weekend and adding any winnings to the Bonus Ball Prize Fund for the month. The two horses will be the ones selected in the Free Epsom Trends Guide and if you haven't already downloaded it just click below....

CLICK HERE FOR DERBY & OAKS ANTE-POST TRENDS GUIDE

And if you want to have a chance of sharing any cash we get from this weekends double then just send a number (1-49) to

quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk

But you must do this before 7.30pm this Saturday.

You'll still be able to enter this months BBB after this time but you won't qualify for any of the Prize Fund Double money.

And remember....This competition is open to everyone who reads this blog, it's completely free to enter, there is absolutely no catch and it only takes seconds to enter.

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FESTIVAL TRENDS FOR EPSOM

It's still not too late to get your copy of this weekends Festival Trends Guide for Epsom where we have covered all 14 races. There's all the usual stats, trends, facts and figures plus the exclusive Nag Ratings. Also included in the very low price of £9.95 is the daily update sheet which includes the Placepot selections and a summary of our selections.

Available here...Epsom Derby Meeting from Festival Trends

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FRIDAY FUN

It has to from Saturday's Britain's Got Talent final. The excellent dance group Diversity and their flawless routine.....

Good luck,

Gavin.

Staking Plans....

As promised yesterday I'm taking a detailed look at some of the Staking Plans people have invented over the years to try and exercise correct bankroll management. Some are obviously better than others and different plans suit different types of punters. So basically it means you need to try out different systems to find the one that fits your betting style and personality the best....

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We'll start with probably the most debated system, or staking plan, in gambling history...

The Martingale
More famous as a Roulette system the Martingale staking plan is theoretically and even mathematically infallible. But unfortunately, and many people have found this out the hard way, this doesn't mean that it works. You can easily adapt the staking plan to horse-racing or any other gambling medium where your chances of success are even money i.e. flipping a coin and it works like this. (We'll use roulette for this example as it's easier to explain)

Very simply you just double your bet each time you lose.

You go into a casino and place your first bet on Red.
£1 at evens...Up comes Black, you lose. You are now -£1

Next bet, £2 on Red at evens.
If you win you get £4 back and win £1 (you have staked £3 up to this point). Your next bet is back to the start, £1, and you repeat the process.

If you lose you simply stake £4 on Red and carry on doubling your stake until Black comes up.

Simples! Amazing I hear you cry! Foolproof!

Well, before you go rushing down to the local casino armed with a fistful of cash, consider this.
If Black comes up 10 times in a row (and I've seen this many times in a casino) you will be staking £1024 on your next bet just to win £1 (you have staked £1023 up to this point). With casino's insisting on a £5 minimum bet for Red/Black selections your next stake will actually be £5120 to win £5 profit after 10 losses. Oh dear!

For £1 bets if Black were to come up 15 times in a row you are now having to stake over £30,000 just to win £1. There aren't too many casino I know of that allow you that kind of wager.

All of a sudden it doesn't look quite so good and that is where this staking system ultimately fails. You will need unlimited funds to counter any variance or downswing and have nerves of steel to be placing those kind of bets just to win £1 or £5. We've all backed 10 losers or more on the trot and not many of us have the kind of resources available to withstand that kind of losing run.
Time to look elsewhere.

Benefits: Very easy to use
Downfalls: A long losing run will have you rushing to sign up for a Swiss suicide clinic
Requirements: Nerves of steel, Bill Gate's bank balance
Probable Outcome of using this plan: Bankruptcy
Type of person this system suits (suited): Kerry Packer

Note: If you've ever been tempted by those adverts for the 'Unbeatable Roulette System' costing £1000's then don't bother. More often than not, all you'll get is the above padded out to 20 pages. Please make your cheques payable to Gavin Priestley ;-)

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Level Stakes
Probably the easiest of all staking plans but one that requires discipline, patience and excellent money management.

Quite simply you divide your bank by a number ( I would suggest 200 but definitely not less than 100) to give the amount of bets you can place before your money runs out.

So if you have a betting bank of £2000 this would mean every bet you place, regardless of odds, will be to the same stake of £10 (£2000 / 200). £200 would involve stakes of £1, £1000 stakes of £5 etc...You now have the capability to go 200 losers without going bust but obviously your bank will grow very slowly. If you are a disciplined bettor then this is the perfect system for you or it's a great way for a beginner to learn essential money management.

Benefits: Very simple to use. Built to take long losing runs.
Downfalls: Your bank won't grow very quickly. It's a bit boring and you may be tempted to increase your stakes.
Requirements: Discipline.
Probable Outcome of using this system: ZZZzzzz Boredom.
Type of person this system suits: Bank managers. Alistair Darling

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% Bank Stakes (or the Plateau Philosophy)
Similar to the level stakes but much more fun. Again you take your betting bank but work out your stake by applying a % to this amount. Say you have a bank of £2000 and decide to stake 5% of your bank each time you have a bet then your first bet will be £100...

If it loses then your bank is now £1900 and your next bet is £95 (5% of £1900)
If it wins at 2/1 then you have £2200 in the bank and your next bet is thus £110

And that basically is it, a very affective and simple to use plan.
Though it is impossible for the bank balance to reach absolute zero don't be fooled by these claims as it is possible to be attempting to place bets of a very small nature should you experience a long sequence of losers. Like a lot of these staking plans there are plenty of variations to this one including increasing and decreasing the % as your bank goes up and down.

Benefits: Another easy to use system that exploits winning runs.
Downfalls: A long losing run can be disheartening as the size of your bets rapidly decrease. It can take some to regain your original balance after one of these losing runs
Requirements: Patience, decent starting bank, calculator if you're not good with %'s
Probable Outcome of using this plan: A good run for your money. Possibility of large betting bank balance.
Type of person this system suits (suited): Gambling betting pro's. Dave Nevison

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Square Root Staking System
Very similar to the Level Stakes but with a slight twist. As I said above, the trouble with betting in level stakes is that your bank grows very slowly and doesn't exploit winning runs should you be lucky enough to experience one. The Square Root Staking Plan works the same as the level stakes method in that you start off betting the same £10, £5 or whatever but then waits for your bank to go into profit and increases your stake by using some of this excess money.

It does this by adding to your usual stake the square-root of your profit. This gives you a new figure for your next wager.

Example: You have a bank of £2000 and are betting level stakes of £10.
Your first bet loses -£10. Your bank is now £1990
Another £10 loser and your bank is now £1980
Your 3rd bet wins at 5/1 and at your usual stakes wins you £50. New balance £2030

Your 4th bet is now £10 + £5.48 (squareroot of your £30 profit) = £15.48

If it loses you now have a bank balance of £2014.52 and your next stake is £13.81 (£10 + £3.81 the squareroot of 14.52)

Any time your bank dips below £2000 your stake reverts to £10.

One of the better staking systems that combines excellent bank management with the ability to maximise any good runs by increasing your stakes.

Benefits: Maximises your winning runs
Downfalls: Your bank has to be in profit for the benefits of this staking plan to come into affect
Requirements: A calculator unless you can work out the squareroot of 30.58 in your head
Probable outcome of using this system: A long and profitable betting career
Type of person this system suits: Disciplined betting pro's. Patrick Veitch

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Bookies Bank
A staking plan that is based on the fact that when you lose, someone else has won i.e. The Bookie. You start off with your bookies bank, say £100, and decide to stake 10% of this bank for your first bet, £10. If it loses, this means the bookie wins and his bank now becomes £110. Your next bet is 10% of this bank or £11. Another loser and the bookie is now £21 up with a bank of £121.
10% of this is £12.10 and is your next bet. It wins at 3/1 and you return £36.30. The Bookie Bank is now £84.70 and you have beaten the bookie this time and take your profit and run.

You reset the Bookie Bank to £100 and start again.

Sounds great but obviously you don't need me to tell you that as the losers pile up your bet size becomes greater and greater as you try to recoup your losses.

Benefits: Simple to work out.
Downfalls: Even simpler to lose your money.
Requirements: The need to get one over on your bookie.
Probable Outcome of using this plan: You give up and try another staking system
Type of person this system suits: Any Bookmaker!

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Fibonacci Series
A slight variance on the Martingale, the Fibonacci Staking Plan uses the Italian mathematician's number sequence pattern to work out your stake. For those of you who fell asleep during maths the Fibonacci sequence adds the previous number to the present number to give the next number in the chain. i.e. 1 - 1 (1+0) - 2 (1+1) - 3 (2+1) - 5 (3+2) - 8 - 13 - 21 - 34......

So your first bet will be £1, £10, £100 (x1) or whatever decide your stake to be
Your next is £1, £10, £100 (x1)
Then £2, £20, £200 (x2).....£3, £30, £300 (x3)...£5, £50, £500 (x5) and so on.

If you strictly apply the Fibonacci series any win will cover the last 2 losses you had so when you get your winner you should ideally drop back 2 steps and continue. But this is only true if every bet is placed at evens and so there have been plenty of variations of the Fibonacci staking plan.

Some reset back to the start when a winner is achieved, some set a limit to how far up the chain you get before giving up and starting again and some mad fools just carry on going!

It's all about personal choice and how far you're willing (or your bank allows you) to go to get your money back.

Benefits: Adaptable and capable of generating huge wins.
Downfalls: A long losing run and you won't be bothering with a Swiss suicide clinic you'll be heading straight for Beachy Head.
Requirements: Balls of steel, maths book, Saudi family bank balance
Probable Outcome of using this plan: If you use the Staking Plan in it's purest form, it's not a probable bankruptcy order it's a guaranteed one.
Type of person this system suits (suited): Terry Ramsden

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Tomorrow I will don my professors mortar board, put on my cape and get the chalk out to take a look at the more mathematically challenging staking plans including by popular demand; the Kelly Plan, the famous Labouchere and Reverse Labouchere systems and the daddy of them all The Retirement Plan. Don't forget to bring your thinking caps, a calculator and remember, pay attention at the back!

Good luck,
Gavin.

More poker woe....

More bad news for me on the poker front last night dear readers. In my ongoing quest to qualify for the World Series I beat off over 300 other players and made the final table yet again only to have my Jacks beaten by KQ. 7th was where I ended up and though the $650 prizemoney was nice it's beginning to cheese me off that I keep getting so close to my Vegas dream but I'm not able to pack my suitcase just yet. I'll be trying again tonight but time is running out...

STAKING PLANS

I get asked quite a lot about staking plans so I thought it might me an idea to go through a few of them for you. They can be a good way of exercising discipline and control over your betting and limit the risk of your betting bank going bust. There are plenty of different staking plans out there from the simple to the mathematically complex and I'll be taking a look at some of them including level stakes, bank %, square root, Martingale and Fibonacci .

If you have no idea what I'm talking about then don't worry because I'll explain it all in tomorrow's post.

TRENDS GUIDE
The Epsom Trends Guide has now been uploaded to the Members Download Area and has all the trends and stats now included. The selections and ratings will be added tomorrow after the final race declarations have been made.

All 14 races are included and it costs just £9.95. You can purchase from the Members Area if you have bought a guide previously or you can purchase it by clicking below....

Epsom Derby Meeting from Festival Trends

BBB ANNIVERSARY SPECIAL

Before looking at this months bet I'll just clear up last months winners of the free cash. There were 4 lucky readers who correctly guessed Bonus Ball Number 32 and the emails have now been sent out.

Time to check your email inbox....Colin M, David W, Andrew E & Simon W

Not so lucky was the fact they only won £10 each but hopefully we can do better this month.

As I said yesterday I will be placing a £100 double on the Oaks/Derby this weekend and adding any winnings to the Prize Fund for the month. The two horses will be the ones selected in the Free Epsom Trends Guide and if you haven't already downloaded it just click below....

CLICK HERE FOR DERBY & OAKS ANTE-POST TRENDS GUIDE

And if you want to have a chance of sharing any cash we get from this weekends double then just send a number (1-49) to

quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk

before 7.30pm this Saturday.

You'll still be able to enter this months BBB after this time but you won't qualify for any of the Prize Fund Double money.

I've said it before but I'll say it again....This competition is open to everyone who reads this blog, it's completely free to enter, there is absolutely no catch and it only takes seconds to enter.

Good Luck,

Gavin.

Weekend Wrap....

5 things I learnt over the weekend (and yesterday)....

1) Working in a betting shop on a hot summers day is not much fun. After 20 years in the business I should know this already but last Saturday was particularly bad and this will definitely be my last season working here. I really should be sitting in the park eating an ice-cream.

2) Unnefer needs softer ground than he got on Saturday and a little bit further. If he gets these conditions I think he has every chance of picking up a big prize this season but until the recent good weather takes a turn for the worse it won't be anytime soon.

3) Football betting isn't my forte! Having fancied a tight game in the FA Cup final I decided to invest a few quid on the 0-0 draw. 25 seconds into the game and I'd done my money, oh joy! I've had more fun backing Richard Quinn on a Cecil hotpot at Brighton.

4) Main Aim looks like justifying all the pre-season hype after another fine performance at Haydock on Saturday. As a 3yo he had been beaten twice in Listed company but after easily taking a handicap on his seasonal run he had earned another crack in Pattern company. He took the opportunity with both hooves and powered to an impressive win but it was one which has now given connections something of a headache as to his best trip. With entries at Royal Ascot ranging from the 6f Golden Jubilee Stakes to the 1mile Queen Anne Stakes the horse could be going up or down in trip but I wouldn't be surprised if it's the Mile race he eventually goes for.

5) I spent a very informative day in London yesterday when I attended Matt's inaugural seminar in the very plush Institute of Directors building in Pall Mall. Matt gave a superb presentation and there was plenty to take in but having signed a confidentiality agreement and my lips are sealed as to what was said! I can however tell you of a website that I, and probably a lot of other people are unaware of, but from what I saw yesterday is really worth checking out... http://www.horseracebase.com/

It's a donation based site with donations starting at just £5 a month and is an unbelievable mine of information. I'll be taking a closer look at the site some time soon....

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Bonus Ball Bet

Another poor day on Saturday meant the prize fund didn't increase too much this month and only £40 was up for grabs.

My lucky number 32 was this month's Bonus Ball and after I've checked the emails this afternoon I will announce the winners and notify the lucky readers.

All the emails will then be deleted and entries re-opened for the month of June. The draw date for this month's BBB will be Wednesday 1st July.

As usual all entries to quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk

SPECIAL ANNIVERSARY BBB DRAW

To kickstart this month's 1 Year Anniversary Celebrations I'm going to place my £100 winnings from laying Susan Boyle in this years BGT final (no sniggering at the back please!) on a Epsom double this weekend. Given the events that have since taken place I really don't get any great satisfaction from having won on this bet and will happily invest these winnings on a £100 double on both my Oaks and Derby selections from my free Trends Guide Publication.

The double is currently paying around 15/1 and means a potential payout of around £1500, which if successful I will add to the Prize Fund Pool. If you don't already know the horses we'll all be cheering this weekend then you can find them in the Free Guide available below. All you need to do is pop your email address in the box so I know where to send it....

CLICK HERE FOR DERBY & OAKS ANTE-POST TRENDS GUIDE

IMPORTANT NOTE

ONLY THOSE READERS WHO HAVE ENTERED THE BBB DRAW BY 7.30PM THIS SATURDAY WILL BE ELIGIBLE FOR ANY WINNINGS FROM THIS SPECIAL DOUBLE BET.

So, if you want to be eligible for any Prize Fund boost simply send your number (1-49) to

quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk

by 7.30pm this Saturday and if your number matches the Bonus Ball drawn out in the National Lottery Main Draw on Wednesday 1st July you can win (or share) it all PLUS any other money added to the fund this month.

It only takes a couple of seconds and could win you a small fortune. Get emailing!

Anyone who reads this blog is eligible to enter.

Good luck,

Gavin.

P.S. The new website is coming along nicely and is in the final stages of completion / testing. I am hoping to unveil in towards the middle of next week. You are all invited to the grand unveiling...