6 for today plus BGT.....

Some very good racing today with plenty of competitive stakes races and handicaps to get stuck into. It's the last chance to get the Bonus Ball prize fund to a respectable level so I'll push the boat out with 6 for today...

JOHN OF GAUNT STAKES (3.05 HAYDOCK)

- Fitness is the key here with 12 of the last 13 winners having run already that season.....

Which would be against Arabian Gleam.

- With 12 of the last 13 winners having had a top 5 finish in Pattern Company...

it doesn't look good for likely favourite Main Aim

- All of the last 10 winners were rated 106+..

Which does for Royal Confidence

- Interestingly all of the last 12 winners were drawn 2-7...

ruling out Beacon Lodge & Laa Rayb

- 11 of the last 13 were British or Irish bred which doesn't look good for..

Atlantic Sport and Garnica

We're left with 3 but with 12 of the last 13 winners returning 5/1 or less I think we can rule out Asset and Welsh Emperor to leave as the selection.....TARIQ

YORK SPRINT (3.45)

-9 runnings of the race so far with all 9 winners having run in the last month...

-all 9 winners rated 96 or less

-all 9 winners ran at a Northern track last time out

-8 of the 9 were 4 or 5yo's

-8 of the 9 had a top 2 finish in at least one of their last 2 races

We're left with 2 and they both ran over course and distance at the Dante Meeting. A length separated them that day and with Cheveton now getting a 3lb pull it should make for another close finish between the two. I am however going to stick with the winner that day and make the selection...INTERNATIONALDEBUT

The 2.40 at York looks an absolute cracker and after a few decent runs have proved him as good as ever I'm going to give another chance to an old favourite....MIA'S BOY

John Dunlop has had 3 runners in the 7.35 Lingfield over the last 10 years and has had 2 winners and a second. I think we can expect a good run from...LATHAAT

He did us a favour last week with a winner so we'll stick with Henry Cecil for the last two selections

2.35 Haydock. She ran well last time, was fairly progressive last season, has a run under her belt for the season and the step back up in trip will hopefully help....MONTBRETIA

3.25 Goodwood. The trip isn't ideal but he brings the best form into the race and I'm hoping his class will pull him through...UNNEFER

6 x £2.50ew singles + 10pew Lucky 63

If you haven't registered yet for the BBB you have until 7.30pm tonight to send your guess in. Simply email a number (1-49) to quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk and if your guess matches the Lottery Main Draw Bonus Ball you win (or share) the pot.

The competition is open to everyone who reads this blog

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BGT

It seems the world and his wife have been watching Britain's Got Talent and tonight sees the final 10 contestants attempt to land the 100k first prize plus the chance to appear at the Royal Variety performance in front of the Queen.

I've pulled my trousers up past my waist, whitened my teeth so they glow in the dark, unbuttoned my shirt to show off my hairy chest and will now do my best Simon Cowell impression as I look through tonight's finalists....

SUSAN BOYLE (6/5 FAV)

The woman is a complete and utter fruit loop. Yes she can sing well, yes she doesn't look like she can sing well but dear, oh dear what a weirdo. If things go badly or the pressure gets to her during tonight's performance it could make for some great TV. The public are turning against her and anything could happen. Personally, I don't think she'll win

AIDAN DAVIS (4/1)

Don't tell the missus but I think he's better than George Sampson. Fantastic performance in the semi final and a real danger to Miss Boyle. If he handles the pressure tonight he could be the one

SHAHEEN JAFARGHOLI (8/1)

It's a good job we don't have to text his name in to vote as I doubt there'd be too many people with the time or inclination to try and spell it out. Luckily for him you only have to phone some extortionate premium phone line to register and I'm sure there will be plenty willing to do it for the young singer. Great voice, cute kid and judging by the number of posters around Cardiff yesterday he will be getting a big proportion of the Welsh vote.

STAVROS FLATLEY (10/1)

Can someone please explain to me, what is funny about a fat bloke and his fat kid running around the stage with their guts hanging out? It's not advisable to be eating your tea when these idiots are on stage. Yuck!

FLAWLESS (12/1)

One of two dance groups and exceptionally good at what they do. Great to watch but the best talent in Britain? Maybe not

JULIAN SMITH (14/1)

Seems like a humble guy and looks super cool. Plays the saxophone and does it well. Sure to get plenty of votes and may be the surprise package amongst the outsiders.

DIVERSITY (16/1)

The second dance group and every bit as good as Flawless. Great routines with originality and humour thrown in.

HOLLIE STEEL (33/1)

Blew her chance last night when her nerves got the better of her and she broke down mid-performance. She showed great courage for a 10yo to sing again and got through on a sympathy vote but if she was my daughter I certainly wouldn't put her through that again. Hopefully it won't happen tonight but she can't win now.

SHAUN SMITH (50/1)

He's got the looks but unfortunately doesn't have the voice. No better or worse than an average karaoke singer but as much chance of winning as I have of going through the card at Haydock today.

2 GRAND (80/1)

Pass the sick bucket. Like those ball room dancing brother and sister from Thursday's semi-final there's something not quite right about this act. Singing a love duet with your grand-daughter just shouldn't be done and this pair have as much chance of winning as I have of going through the card at Haydock and York this afternoon. Great comment from the old guy the other night though, 'this is the best thing that has happened to me since my wife died'! I know what he meant but it still had me in stitches.

MY PREDICTION FOR THE TOP 3

AIDAN DAVIS - SUSAN BOYLE - DIVERSITY

Good luck and enjoy the show if you're watching it,

Gavin.

Late Night Poker....

Due to a very late night (early morning actually) of playing poker my whole day has been put back after a long lie-in meaning I've only got time to write a short post.

I spent most of the night trying to win a seat in the World Series of Poker and everything seemed to be going well as I saw off 326 of the 329 other entries. But, down to the last 3 I suffered a crushing defeat when my pair of Queens was beaten and I had to make do with the $1000 consolation prize. It's bad enough having an odds on favourite turned over on the race course but I can tell you it hurts far more when it's the difference between another week in Vegas or another week at work!

Given the way things are going at the moment it's a bit of a shock that I didn't finish second.

Oh well, try again tonight. I'll be back tomorrow with a longer rambling but until then a couple of things.....

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Festival Trends

As it's the end of the May Madness Trends Guides I thought it would be a good idea to publish the story so far..

So, here are the results for every horse given in every trends guide we have sold....
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=r2q11jwoPzPwhDQTjjQvsZg

All of these results have been calculated at SP and, as I'm sure all of you know, by using Betfair it is possible to increase these profits further.

At SP we are currently running at a 21% Strike Rate of winners to runners and have made over 20 points profit since we started. This works out as a ROI (return on investment) of just under 25%.

Next up on the Flat Trends schedule is the Derby Meeting next weekend and you can get it by clicking below for just £9.95.......

Epsom Derby Meeting from Festival Trends

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FRIDAY FUN

This one is for Matt who is hosting his first 'workshop' on Monday and has asked me to say a few words about my experiences with this Blog over the last 12 months. I'm not really looking forward to that part but, having promised I'd do it, I thought I'd conduct a little research into the do's and don'ts of seminar speaking.....




Good luck,
Gavin.

The lunatics have taken over the asylum...

The worst thing about going away is the mess you come back to on your return. Things at work are never in the same place, everything looks untidy, there's 150 unread emails in your inbox and the papers and milk are piled up on your doorstep because you forgot to cancel them before you went away.

Anyway, having gathered up the last few days Racing Post's and sat down with my bowl of Rice Krispies I thought I'd catch up with what's been happening in the world of racing while I've been away. Lahaleeb just caught in the Irish Guineas (bad news), lots of doubtful runners in the Oaks and Derby (good news as mine look certain to run), rubbish racing on a Bank Holiday Monday (no change there) and the funniest April Fool I've ever seen. Apparently over at Kempton they're planning on running a horse race to the sound of a live orchestra being piped through the PA system. Hahahaha

What do you mean it's the end of May and it really is going to happen? No, please tell me it isn't true, surely it must be a joke?

Of all the crazy ideas that have been dreamt up by racecourse executives this has to be the barmiest, most ridiculous of them all.

Who on earth wants to listen to an orchestra play while watching a horse-race? Apart from the 30 odd members of the orchestra this can't possibly add a single person to the attendance and is another pointless gimmick that nobody will care about. No wonder racing is in such a bad state if this is the best idea they can come up with to increase crowds.

Your average racegoer wants; cheaper entry fees, cheaper and better food, less stuffiness and more competitive racing. Until racecourse executives realise this then there really is no hope for them.

Forget The William Tell Overture, surely a more apt tune to be played would be 'The Lunatics Have Taken Over the Asylum"!

Hang on a sec though, if Thommo is doing the commentary then this could actually be the greatest idea yet. Turn the volume up and drown out his buffoonery....brilliant! I take it all back!!

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EPSOM FESTIVAL TRENDS

I've managed to ship the missus and son off to Grandma's for a few days to give me a chance to work on the trends for Epsom. Hopefully if all goes well then the Guide will be ready for release on Monday with the selections and ratings being added next Thursday after the final declarations have been made.

The Derby and Oaks are still available as a FREE Guide and all you need to do is pop your email address in the box at the link below....

CLICK HERE FOR DERBY & OAKS ANTE-POST TRENDS GUIDE

The other 12 races at the meeting will cost just £9.95 and if you purchase before 7.30pm tonight you will also get the 3 races for tonight's Sandown Evening Meeting as a Special Bonus. You can purchase the full Epsom guide from the link below....

Epsom Derby Meeting from Festival Trends

And for those of you looking even further ahead, if you wish to purchase the Royal Ascot Trends Guide then use the Derby Meeting link above and you will receive both the full Epsom Derby and Sandown meetings for FREE!

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Good luck,
Gavin

Off to the bright lights of the city....

After Wednesday's debacle you'll probably all be glad to hear that I'm going away for a few days to escape the wind and rain of South Wales and to recharge the batteries. All being well I should be back next Tuesday when I'll be starting the countdown to the Derby and my 1 year anniversary here at Nag3.

Before I go, here are a few things to note for the weekend...

Epsom Festival Trends

From this Monday, I have a Derby & Oaks Festival Trends Guide to give away to every reader who wants one . All you need to do to get a copy is sign up below

CLICK HERE FOR DERBY & OAKS ANTE-POST TRENDS GUIDE

and I'll email you the link on Monday as to where you can download it from.

Completely free!

Bonus Ball Bet

It's not been a great start this month and there's not too much cash in the kitty but we have two more Saturdays to go and as part of the anniversary celebrations I'll be adding a little extra to the prize fund this month. So if you haven't done so already this month...

Simply send a number 1-49 to quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk to enter.

Match your guess with the Bonus Ball in the National Lottery Draw on Saturday 30th May and you will win/share the entire prize fund.

This is also completely free and open to everyone who reads this blog (it doesn't matter if it's your first time or your 500th time).

Saturday's Bonus Ball Bet

This is the bet we'll try and boost the fund with this weekend (with a little help from my favourite trainer)

2.20 Newmarket
He still holds a Derby entry but I think this is more his level. First choice of the day is Henry Cecil's Lingfield Derby Trial third FATHER TIME

3.25 Newmarket
The trends say fillies can't win this race but BOUVARDIA won well last time and we can hope for a place at a decent price given Henry's excellent record with the ladies (well equine wise anyway!)

4.35 Newmarket
He also runs SOMETHING PERFECT later on the card and her recent run should have put her spot on for this tough looking handicap.

3.30 Newmarket (Sunday)
Henry obviously didn't fancy travelling too far this weekend with all 4 of his horses running just down the road at HQ. His final runner here is one I have been waiting to run for a few weeks as HYADES has been taken out of a couple of races recently due to one thing and another. Should he turn up on Sunday I expect him to win this handicap before going on to better things.

Let's hope Mr Cecil can give us something to shout about.

4 x £2.50ew Singles and a 50pew Lucky 15

Good luck,
Gavin.

Anniversary Celebrations....

They say a years a long time in politics but whoever said that should try writing a horse-racing Blog when the winners aren't coming! And unlike those fine upstanding ladies and gentlemen at Westminster I can't fiddle the expenses and claim for having the moat around Nag Towers cleaned or get the mortgage paid on my 2nd and 3rd homes.

But come the Derby meeting a year is what it will have been since I first took over the reins of Matt's beloved NagNagNag Blog and I have to say I've pretty much enjoyed every minute of it. I hope you the dear readers have too.

So to kick off the celebrations I'll be going back to where it all started, The Derby and Oaks and will offer every reader a FREE Ante-Post Epsom Trends Guide for both races. It will be ready after the weekend and if you want a copy just sign up below and I'll email you the download link on Monday morning......

CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP FOR DERBY & OAKS ANTE-POST TRENDS GUIDE

(If you've already signed up in any one of my previous 'Trends' promotion then you don't have to do a thing as you will automatically get the download link sent out to you.)

Hopefully we can do a bit better with the final selections this year!

Also, I am currently having a new website built to replace the current one. It will have more features, more links, a new layout and should look a little nicer too. I'm really quite excited about it which really goes to show that I should get out more.....

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A FEW FOR TODAY

The first one won't be much of a surprise to anyone as he's trained by Henry Cecil. Sight Unseen runs at Goodwood this afternoon in a Listed race where a couple of the entries will be attempting to lay down their credentials for the Derby.

Free Agent and Choc A Block both look to have a decent chance and are both unbeaten but Sight Unseen ran a fine race when 4th in the Chester Vase last time out having previously won a Newbury maiden in encouraging fashion. He wasn't beaten that far behind a couple of Aiden O'Brien's Derby hopefuls in that Chester race and with the two main Derby entries running for the first time this season Sight Unseen's fitness may be the crucial deciding factor.

The second is even more obvious but I'd be very surprised if Kayf Aramis wasn't able to defy a 6lb penalty given the way he won at York last week. This good hurdler seemed to enjoy his return to the level and won by an eased down 13 lengths. He'll handle the ground and as long as 'Frank' Spencer doesn't get him boxed in he should win.

The third horse I'll be backing today runs in the 5.10 Goodwood and comes from the in-form John Gosden stable. Miss Tango Hotel has the benefit of a run already this season after finishing a good second at Chester last time out behind the well fancied Balaagha. The Gosden stable have sent out 8 runners in this race over the last 10 years and have had 3 winners and 4 places to show for their efforts, which bodes well for a good run from the selection.

3.25 Sight Unseen
4.00 Kayf Aramis
5.10 Miss Tango Hotel

Finally, in the last at Goodwood they have an apprentice, class 6 sprint over 5f which won't be everyone's cup of tea but is certainly my brand of Earl Grey. The one that catches my eye down towards the bottom of the weights is Sofinella. She ran very well last time out at Bath behind Kyllachy Storm where she weakened only in the last 1/2 furlong. With the winner going in again on Monday and that race on ground a bit firmer than she would have liked there are plenty of positives to be taken from the race. She ran a good 4th over course and distance last September from a mark 5lb higher than today and with a good apprentice on board this afternoon rates excellent each way value at around 14/1.

5.45 Sofinella

Good luck,
Gavin.

Three times a charm?....

I'm sure that Harry Findlay is hoping so as he has finally puts his plan into action this evening when his horse George Baker who is trained by George Baker will be ridden by, none other than, George Baker. His grand idea to have the jockey ride him on his debut fell through when George Baker (the jockey) got himself a ban that coincided with George Baker's (the horse) first run. No such problems for tonight's 6.10 at Leicester with all parties seemingly ready to go.

It's a great bit of fun from the flamboyant punter and should he win (which I doubt he will) there's bound to be a lot of media coverage, which certainly can't be a bad thing.

.... and I would imagine plenty of owners called George Baker ready to get the cheque books out.

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Battle of the Bookies

Time to take a look at the bottom half of the draw and see what each site offers to try and get you to come back. Plus we'll see who is top price most often at Nottingham this afternoon...

BETFRED 17 VS BETFAIR 17

Nobody knows better than Fred the need to keep your customers happy and he's never been afraid to put his money up if he senses a bit of publicity will be gained. His latest offer is the Betfred May Madness (I think he stole that catchy line from me!) and you won't beat these offers anywhere else.. There are more sport money back offers than you can shake a stick at (isn't that a really strange saying?) plus these amazing racing offers; guaranteed odds, 25% bonus on forecasts, 50% bonus on tricasts, treble odds for 1 winner in Lucky 15/31/63 bets, Happy Hour with enhanced early prices and the best offer of them all..he will pay the 4th horse in handicaps of 16 declared runners or more when only 15 actually run. And that's happened 11 times this month already. A promotional genius 4.5/5

Betfair policy is simple. Offer the best prices and they will come.. You can't fault it and for serious punters looking for betting with no frills or gimmicks, who aren't interested in multiple bets and just want to get extra value for their pound Betfair is the place to bet. They do offer racing and live sports to your PC and unrivalled in-running betting. If the best price is all that matters (and most of the time it is) Betfair will have you coming back time and time again...3.5/5

Top Price...

BETFRED 14

Best price between the two....

It's an unequal battle as Betfair are nearly always the best price, especially on the outsiders, and are bound to make Freds (or anyone else's) prices look bad. There is commission to pay at Betfair which will affect the prices but as Betfred are rarely the best price in any race, and would have struggled against any of the bookies left in, it's a no contest on this particular heat.

I make it BETFRED 1.5pts BETFAIR 4.5pts

Giving a final score as BETFRED 23 BETFAIR 25

A great fight from Fred but ultimately he has been let down by his poor early prices.

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SPORTING BET 14.5 VS STAN JAMES 14.5

Once Sporting have your money they seem quite happy to leave it at that with very little to make you want to return here. There are plenty of bonuses for casino and game players but nothing for us horse racing fans. For the sports fans amongst you they do a good range of in-play betting which just about saves them from a big fat zero 0.5/5

Stan James on the other hand understand the need to keep you happy and to keep you coming back. They offer guaranteed odds on all races in the UK, a special link for their current promotions and the ability to watch the racing through Attheraces (after staking £5 or more on the race). Current promotions give a few sports betting money back offers and a free £10 bet if you want to try Mobile Phone betting 2.5/5

Top price from all firms...

SPORTING BET 33 STAN JAMES 35

Best price between the two...

SPORTING BET 32 STAN JAMES 23

Which I think just gives it to Sporting Bet 4pts / 3.5 pts

Final Scores: SPORTING BET 19 STAN JAMES 20.5

Which just highlights the need to keep your customers happy so they keep coming back...

On that note, in tomorrows post I'll be announcing details of a FREE Trends Guide for The Derby and Oaks which will include all the stats, trends, facts and figures along with a couple of Ante-Post recommendations. Until then,

Good luck,
Gavin.

Weekend Roundup...

5 things I have learned this weekend....

1) There is someone who has more seconds than me....

Ignoring Rik Waller or Michelle McManus I thought no-one had more seconds than me but after yesterday's Singapore Cup Luca Cumani can now rightly lay claim to that particular accolade. Presvis's heart breaking defeat was another narrow worldwide Group 1 defeat for the unlucky trainer who has seen nearly £4 million slip through his fingers in the last 6 months. Starting with Bauers nose second in the Melbourne Cup last November, Purple Moon's short head defeats in Hong Kong and Dubai and now this latest 2nd place from Prevsis the amount of prize money the unlucky trainer has missed out on is a staggering £3,736,428.11 (the difference in prize money between 1st and 2nd)

Remember that figure next time you moan about getting beat a short head!

2) Paco Boy doesn't stay a mile in Group 1 company....

He's undoubtedly Group 1 class over 7f and he can just about get away with a mile when racing in slightly lesser company but in the highest grade he simply doesn't quite get home over 8f. The trainer blamed the ground, the jockey said the horse wasn't right but to my eye it looked like he just emptied out in the last 1/2 furlong. Simples.

3) Tom Queally is good....

It seems that riding for Henry Cecil has been the making of Tom Queally and recent rides have proved to me that he is fast becoming a really good jockey. His ride on Sam Sharp in the first at Newbury on Saturday was a master class in lying handy and quickening up at the right time. He definitely stole that race with the injection of pace entering the home straight and was able to hang on to his advantage from the fast finishing 2nd and 3rd. The winner probably wasn't the best horse in the race but it certainly was the best bit of jockeymanship.

Richard Quinn is now a distant memory...

4) Anniversary...

In a couple of conversations over the weekend I was reminded that it is nearly a year since I took over this Blog from my dear friend Matt. Having sounded out the idea to me a couple of weeks before Epsom my first actual post was for last years Oaks, Coronation Cup and Derby. Unfortunately, like most of last Summer the tips were based on sound reasoning but failed to deliver (I still have nightmares about the Shergar Cup meeting.) We've managed to turn it around a bit since then and things have, on the whole, been pretty good these last 4 months.

Anyway, I guess we'll need to mark the occasion with something special so as well as having a new website built (to be unveiled hopefully before Epsom) I'll also have plenty of free offers for you all and some free to enter competitions with some great prizes. More news later.

5) Maths wasn't Graham Norton's best subject at school...

Anyone who watched the Eurovision scoring process on Saturday night can't help but wonder at how mathematically challenged Graham Norton really is. With our entry Jade 40 points or so clear of the 6th placed country and with just a couple of votes left Norton was getting quite stressed out that we wouldn't finish in the top 5. Er, Graham the highest mark awarded to a country was 12 points. Instead of flapping about and repeatedly mentioning it he (or someone else in the studio) could have done some simple maths and worked out that she was assured of 5th place no matter what.

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With a typically poor Monday racing programme on offer it's a good time to continue the battle of the bookies....

For this round we'll look at how the sites treat you now they have your details, your cash and your custom.

PADDY POWER 16.5 vs LADBROKES 15.5

Paddy may have your money but he's very keen to have you come back time and time again and he does this by giving you some very good customer offers. If your horse gets beat in the featured race of the day by 1/2 length or less you get your money back, every horse and dog is guaranteed price and you get paid out on the double result on any amended finish. 3.5/5

Ladbrokes offer......er, nothing. They do have an odds-on card scheme whereby you get points for punts but it seems this only applies to bets placed in their high street shops. Fat lot of good advertising that on your online site 0/5

Next up is the prices on offer for the day. I've taken the main afternoon meeting (Bath) and seen how many horses each firm was top or joint top price on...

Paddy 10 Ladbrokes 14

And how many horses they are top price about compared to each other...

Paddy 24 Ladbrokes 13

A win in this round for Paddy 4pts - 3pts

Making the final scores....

PADDY POWER 24 LADBROKES 18.5

and a win for the Irish due mainly to Ladbrokes complacency once they have you signed up.

BLUE SQUARE 13.5 vs VICTOR CHANDLER 15

Blue Square offer existing customers the 'exclusive' Blue Square SP which guarantees to at least match the returned industry SP and is actually better in 42% of cases. There are a few football money back offers and as sponsors of the Greyhound Derby they have their own website dedicated to the event with plenty of extras. You can also watch all of the UK racing live from your PC when placing a wager. 3/5

Victor offers a similar service with money back offers on certain football matches and the opportunity to watch all races live on your PC if you stake £5 or more on a bet for that race. No mention of any guaranteed prices 2.5/5

Top Price

Blue Square 14 Victor Chandler 15

vs each other

Blue Square 23 Victor Chandler 22

making the scores for this round an honourable 4.5/4.5 draw

and the final score

BLUE SQUARE 21 vs VICTOR CHANDLER 22

Blue Square are unable to claw back the deficit from the first round stages and though they win this round they leave the competition on points scored overall. Victor will have to raise his game when he meets Paddy Power in the Semi Final.

More tomorrow. Until then...

Good luck,
Gavin.

Another 2 winners for the Blog...

Not a bad day yesterday with 2 winners from the 3 runners at 5/2 and 13/8. Our other runner didn't seem to handle the softer ground but I think he's got a big handicap in him on firmer conditions and he'll be one to keep on the right side of next time out.

One of the winners, Apple Charlotte, was from my 10 to follow for the season and is now unbeaten in three races. I would imagine a race like the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot is now on the agenda and on what she has shown so far I think it's definitely worth trying this step up in class with her.

Let's hope this recent good run continues with today's picks....

In the last 4 years Sir Michael Stoute has sent seven 3yo maidens to Thirsk and has seen 6 of them win (86%). Not a bad stat in anyone's book. Today he runs Harvest Song in the 2.30pm and he'll be the first on our list.

Henry Cecil has a runner in the 3.30 at Newmarket who looks to have a decent chance. I'm not sure Sevenna quite got home last time out over the 2miles of Lingfield and this drop back in distance should be more suitable for her. She had run well over this trip at the end of last year where she had a couple of today's opponents well behind.

He did us a great favour when winning on the AW about a month ago and today he has his first run on turf for the season. Dubai Dynamo was said to have scoped badly after disappointing last time out and I'm willing to give him another chance to prove he is a well handicapped horse who can win again. He goes in the 2.20 Newmarket and at 25/1 rates incredible each way value.

Lastly, I'm going to stick with the horse I backed in the Kentucky Derby a few weeks back. Pioneerof The Nile was unlucky to run into freak winner Mine That Bird after running such a good race on his first attempt on dirt. The pace that day was suicidal which allowed the winner to bide his time and storm home past the weakening runners in the home straight. I doubt very much he'll ever be able to repeat that performance and I'd be very confident the placings will be reversed at Pimlico tonight.

The interesting runner of the race is the filly Rachel Alexandra who had been the subject of some underhand tactics to try and keep her out of the race over the past week. They ultimately failed and the filly will now try to be the first female since 1924 to win the Preakness Stakes. Undoubtedly a very good filly she will need all her early speed to get her usual front running position from stall 13 and I think this will be her undoing. Also, the two times she has been asked to run within 2 weeks of her previous start she has been beaten.

2.30Th HARVEST SONG
3.30 Newm SEVENNA
2.20 Newm DUBAI DYNAMO (25/1)
11.15 Pimlico PIONEEROF THE NILE

4 x £2.50 each way singles + 20p EW Lucky 15

That will be the Bonus Ball Bet for this week and I think it looks pretty good. If you haven't sent your number in yet then you know the drill....

Simply send a number 1-49 to quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk .

It's free to enter and whatever is in the pot at the end of the month will be split between all those of you who correctly match your number with the National Lottery Bonus Ball in the draw on Saturday 30th May.

Good luck,
Gavin.

The Derby winner?

It looks to me like the muddy waters of the Derby picture have cleared somewhat after yesterday's Dante but only in that we now know a few horses who won't be winning at Epsom. For those of us looking for the race to provide a horse who would get our pulses racing and set the Derby betting alight we were left a bit disappointed after a very good but not great performance from the Aiden O'Brien second string Black Bear Island.

With 2 lengths covering the first 6 home, which didn't include the favourite Crowded House, it's hard to make out what the form is really worth and personally, I think the biggest benefactor of the race is Aiden O'Brien's other leading Derby fancy, Fame and Glory. In winning on Sunday he proved himself a top class horse in the making and he will now be my Derby horse to go with Midday for the Oaks.

One interesting thing to remember for all you stat lovers out there is that no horse beaten in the Dante has ever gone on to Epsom glory which doesn't bode well for those of you holding ante-post tickets for Crowded House, Freemantle, Kite Wood or any of the other also-rans.

With all the recent big Derby trials going to horses trained across the Irish Sea it's no wonder that Hills make it a 1-6 shot that an Irish horse wins the Derby and with only a handful of trials left to run we're running out of time to find a serious British challenger. The two British horses highest in the betting at the moment are yesterday's beaten Dante favourite, Crowded House, and the Sir Michael Stoute trained maiden winner Harbinger. Uh oh, that doesn't look good for us!

Expect a couple of new betting markets in the next few days;
How many runners will Aiden O'Brien have in the race?
and will he be making up over half the field?

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On to today's racing and after yesterday's loser I'll be looking for a change of luck. Everymanforhimself did everything but win as he fought off horse after horse in the final furlong only to be denied right on the line. Quite what the jockey was doing letting a horse up his inside when he had the number 1 stall and the rail to help him is beyond me but at least my each way money was saved and Paddy Power refunded my win stake as he was beaten less than a neck. You gotta love Paddy...

At the start of the season I included Apple Charlotte in my list of horses to follow and she duly obliged first time out at a very generous 11/2. She goes again today in the 2.50 Newbury and will again be carrying my cash.

The 2.10 at York looks a competitive handicap but I really fancy the chances of King Charles from the Ed Dunlop stable. He looked desperately unlucky first time out this season over a trip a little short of his best and should relish this step back up to 1m4f. He ran a great race at Royal Ascot on his last try at this distance and is now 2lb lower than for that run. He's won on good-soft and as long as it doesn't get too heavy he should be in the shake-up.

A cracking card at Hamilton tonight which stages a 30 grand Derby trial race no less with Saeed Bin Suroor and Aiden O'Brien both sending runners for the race. But it's the other big prize race that interests me run at 8.35. Allied Powers looked in need of the run when finishing 7th behind Duncan at Epsom last time out and this step up in trip should see his season start here. Any softening of the ground will make him of even more interest.


Good luck,
Gavin.

Super filly?...

It seems we have a new Oaks favourite after the impressive performance of Sariska in yesterday's Musidora and both of the well fancied duo, Enticement and High Heeled, running poorly in the same race. Being a well fancied selection in our trends guide I was more than happy to see Sariska win so well but before anyone rushes out to back her for Epsom there are three things worth noting...

1) The time of the race was actually 1.2 seconds slower than the handicap run as the first race over the same distance. The slow pace of the middle part of the race was aptly demonstrated by the proximity of the rank outsider, and complete no hoper, Dancing Wave as they turned the corner for home.

2) 8 of the last 11 winners of the Musidora have gone on to run in the Oaks and have finished; 23283385. Alexandrova did however finish 2nd here to Short Skirt before reversing form at Epsom.

3) There is also the Cecil filly to worry about and although this was a really fine performance from a talented filly I'm going to stick with Midday. She looked equally impressive last Saturday and is still my number 1 ante-post runner (at the moment!).

Let's hope we get an equally emphatic display in tomorrow's Dante to help clear the rather murky waters of the Derby Ante Post market....

---------


Three for today....

The first one runs in the 1.40 York.

I really fancy the chances of Everymanforhimself in this 5f sprint and his form looks as solid as anything else in the race. He has a victory over Strike Up the Band over the distance and on firm going and remarkably finds himself 9lb better of in the weights as well. He has a plum draw in trap 1 and has the blinkers re-applied today which have had a positive affect on him in the past. He's been dabbling a bit over 6f which isn't his trip and showed his well being for this race with a fine staying on third over Beverley's 5f last time out. With two solid runs (2nd and 4th) in big field handicaps at the track everything looks set for a major run.

I'd be extremely surprised if he doesn't go close and at around 9/1 looks a great bet

We have to go further North for the next one as he runs in the 5.15 Perth.

Nigel Twiston-Davies loves this track and in NH flat races he has a fantastic 4 from 5 (80%) strike rate over the last 4 seasons. Today he runs Rhum and I'm sure he'll be ready to run a big race.

Back down South to HQ for the last one who runs tonight in the 8pm at Newmarket.

Henry Cecil (not to mention a lot of punters including me) was very disappointed with the run of On Our Way in the Fielden Stakes last time out but the King of Newmarket looks to have found the perfect opportunity to get him back in the winning groove. Dropped down to a conditions stakes race and to a 1mile I think we'll see the best of him tonight and though it's quite a competitive race his superior form should see him through.

Looks like a nice patent to me;

Everymanforhimself
Rhum
On Our Way

Good luck,
Gavin.

Round 1 continued....

The bottom half of the draw to find the Champion Online Bookmaker.

BETFRED vs SKYBET

He prides himself on being the King of the Bonuses and he doesn't let us down with what is the biggest match up new customer deal available, £50...Nice one Fred 5/5
Skybet don't advertise any free bet deals for new customers on their site but after a bit of 'googling' I found a bog standard £10 match up offer. Yawn 2.5/5

Fred has plenty of horse-racing and sports markets but not a lot other than that. A couple of 'novelties' and numbers betting 3/5
Sky have all the sports including UFC!, speciality and political betting, virtual racing 3.5/5

Fred's got himself a nice looking site with the industry standard menu running down the left hand side. Easy to use, quick to find the market you want to and fast to load. Everything you want in a betting site 4.5/5
Sky's site doesn't look as good as Fred's but is just as easy to use and is a mine of information on the home page. If you scroll down the page there's features, FAQ's, contact details, support and if you have a Sky subscription the chance to watch the sport on your computer. 4.5/5

With Fred you can get your money into the site via all the usual methods including Paypal and Netteller 4.5/5
As far as I can see Sky offer credit and debit card payments only 2/5

RESULT: BETFRED 17 SKYBET 12.5

An easy win for the self proclaimed 'King'. He might find his next match a bit tougher....

BETFAIR vs 888 SPORT

Betfair offer a free £25 bet to all new customers BUT with a slight twist. You get your first bet back if it loses up to a stake of £25. Nice idea. 4/5
888 offer £50 in free bets subject to you placing a number of further bets with them. You get £15 for your first bet, then £15 after your next 9 bets and then a final £20 after another 5 bets. That's an awful lot of betting even for me! 3.5/5

Betfair cannot be beat for the sheer range of markets on offer and bet on just about everything happening in the world of sport and beyond. Some of the more obscure markets won't have much liquidity in them but the opportunity to bet on them is still there 5/5
888 offer the usual range of sports and racing markets along with a few specials and political betting. No more or no less than most online sites but compared to Betfair the range is small 3.5/5

Betfair is sharp and well structured but with so many markets on offer it sometimes feels a bit cluttered and those little black and white stick cartoon characters that litter the site drive me crazy! Given the size of some of the markets and the number of runners involved it can take a while sometimes to load the pages. 3.5/5
888 offer the standard layout but it's done in great style with nice colours. The home page is not too big and everything is laid out ready for you. Fast and efficient 4/5

Betfair offer all the usual cards, money wallets and Paypal 4.5/5
888 has the biggest range of deposit methods from all the sites in this survey. There's a whole page dedicated to how you can get your money into your account and 888 have obviously left no stone unturned in their quest to get your cash into their site. 5.5/5

RESULT: BETFAIR 17 888SPORT 16.5

A lot closer than you'd have thought but Betfair have done enough to go through. Fred awaits...

TOTE vs SPORTING BET

You can get a £25 free bet match up with the Tote. 4/5
Sporting Bet offer £100 in a single free bet BUT it is only available after you have placed 5 accumulator bets with 3 selections or more in, that work out at over evens and are £100+ in stake. Phew, one for big football accers only I think...2/5

The Tote have the usual range of markets but have the added advantage of offering every tote bet available. 4/5
Sporting bet as the name would suggest specialise in sports betting and have a big range of markets available including lots of in-running opportunities. There's plenty to get stuck into here if you're a sports fan 4/5

The Tote don't have the best looking site and it all looks rather cheap with everything on the home page being underlined. It's easy to find what you're after and everything is laid out ok but there's just something I don't like about it..3/5
Sporting Bet on the other hand is exactly what a web site should look like. It's smart, looks great, uses the whole page to full affect and is easy to navigate. The best look of all the sites surveyed 5/5

Payment options with the Tote are restricted to card payments only 2/5
Sporting bet offer card payments, money wallets and netteller but no paypal 3.5/5

RESULT: TOTE 13 SPORTING BET 14.5

Sporting Bet knock out the nanny thanks mainly to a superb looking site.

STAN JAMES vs JENNINGS

Stan James offer the excellent £25 match up free bet. 4/5
Jennings have plenty of offers for their casino and poker sites but they don't have anything advertised for their sports/racing site. After a quick google it seems they have a £10 match up but I haven't been able to verify this. 1.5/5

Stan has about the same range of markets as most firms which is about as many as you really need. 3.5/5
Jennings have probably the smallest range of markets of any online firm surveyed here. No in-running betting and no speciality betting at all. 2/5

Stan's site is fine and looks pretty decent if a little like every other site on the net. It's fast to load and everything is easily accessible. 3.5/5
Jennings offer a nice, simple and welcoming website. The colour scheme is aesthetically pleasing and the navigation is simple but they don't have much to put on the main page so it's bound to give off the uncluttered affect. 3.5/5

Stan offers the usual line-up of deposit choices with the exception of Paypal 3.5/5
Jennings have the same deposit methods as Stan 3.5/5

RESULT: STAN JAMES 14.5 JENNINGS 10.5

An easy win for Stan James but against one of the smallest online sites it's nothing to shout about..

I'll be back tomorrow with the next round.
Gavin.

So close, yet so far...

5 Things I have learnt this weekend......

1) The obvious choice is nearly always the right choice

Having spent all morning sifting through the past results to come up with some less than impressive trends for the French Guineas I managed to get both races down to a choice of two.

And then it all went horribly wrong as I decided to go with the trainer instead of going for the obvious choice of the two. Silver Cross had already beaten Westphalia and there really wasn't any reason why the form should have been reversed and Elusive Wave's form was far superior to the rank outsider I chose over her.

Which meant that instead of giving 7/1 & 5/1 winners out you ended up with two duff tips and I ended up with sore shins where I have been kicking myself ever since. Lesson learnt!

2) The Oaks winner

As far as I am concerned the search for the Oaks winner ended on Saturday when Henry 'King of the Fillies' Cecil sent out Midday to win the Lingfield Oaks Trial. She looks to have everything you need to win that race and the 16/1 Stan James offered immediately after the race was probably the best value ante-post price I have seen in a long time.

Unfortunately seeing was all I did get to do as while I was logging into my Stan James account to grab some of the 16's, Tanya Stephenson announced to the Channel 4 audience of the availability of this price and before you could say 'Big Mac' the price was cut in half.

3) Betting Shops open at 11am on Sunday

Time to try the Tote for some 12's but my bank card has changed and I couldn't get my new details in quick enough before the 'nanny goat' had changed their price to 8's.

I woke up yesterday morning to see that Ladbrokes were 10's so had a walk up to the local Magic Sign office at about 10.30 only to find out that they open at 11 on a Sunday. I hung around the street corner for 1/2 hour like a 21st century teenager only to find that as if by magic the worlds largest bookmaker had also cut the price to 8's.

Determined to get some money on Mr Cecil's filly I had a £100 double on Fame and Glory at Leopardstown and Midday at 8/1 which at least went some way to softening the blow of the missed 16/1.

4) The Derby Winner?

He was mighty impressive and at this stage he's the one for me. Fame And Glory shot to the head of the market for this years Derby with an impressive display in what has been the number 1 Derby Trial in recent years. Only a really amazing performance from one of the runners in the Dante can knock this one off the top of my list and the top of the betting.

Looking through the declarations for the Dante, and if all the big names run, it could certainly happen and I'll hold fire on the Epsom double until the end of the week.

5) Poker is more annoying than horseracing

Even though I was cheesed off with myself for not having backed both Guineas winners in France yesterday it was nothing compared to how I felt this morning when having struggled for 4 1/2 hours to survive one bad beat after another I finally got knocked out of a big poker tournament 2 places short of the money. I was sorely tempted to throw the laptop out of the window but decided against waking the neighbours as it was 4am in the morning. To play for so long without reward is far worse than picking the wrong horse, or see him get beat a short head, or fall at the last when in the lead, or get left in the stalls......

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KING OF THE BOOKIES

All this week I'll be trying to find out who gives the best service, the best prices and the best offers in the Nag3 Bookie Knockout Tournament.

ROUND 1 (TOP HALF OF DRAW)

In round 1 I'll be looking for the best offers for new accounts, the number of markets available, the general look and ease of use for the site and the number of payment options available...

PADDY POWER vs BET365

Paddy's latest sign-up offer is 3 x £10 bets over 3 weeks when you place a £30 or higher opening bet. Not great but you can now bet at odds of 1-2 to qualify meaning you could just try and win some easy money. 3/5
Bet 365 offer £100 free bets in the form of 4 x £25 bets for every 5 bets you place with them. One of the best match-ups available online at the moment. 4.5/5

Paddy's range of betting is probably the largest on offer outside of Betfair and covers just about everything you would want to bet on and plenty you wouldn't. Their Novelty Bets page is worth a look just to see some of the mad things people are prepared to bet on. 4.5 / 5
Bet 365 offer a massive range of markets with all the usual sports plus a few of the unusual (Australian Rules Football anyone?). There are also special markets for various countries and financial markets for all you budding city types. 3/5

Paddy's site looks good if a little bright in the colour department, is easy to navigate and loads the markets very quickly. 4 / 5
Bet 365 is very similar in design to Paddy's but without the orange! Again easy to move around the site and is also very quick. 4.5 / 5

You can't fault Paddy's range of payment facilities with everything from Credit cards to Netteller, moneybookers & Paypal to a simple Bank transfer. 5/5
bet365 offer plenty of options with a range of online money transfer sites (Netteller, moneybookers and Ukash) alongside the normal credit/debit card facilities. They don't however offer the biggest online payment site; Paypal. 4/5

RESULT: PADDY POWER 16.5 BET365 16

A tough fight and a narrow win for Paddy Power who scrapes through to the next round and will meet either...

LADBROKES vs BOYLESPORTS

Ladbrokes offer just a free £10 bet to all new customers. 2.5/5
Boylesports take an early lead with their offer of a £20 free bet. 3.5/5

Ladbrokes have a fairly decent list of sports betting which open up further into sub-sections when clicked on. Plenty of speciality betting and a good range of political markets. 4/5
Boylesports like their Irish counterpart Paddy Power have betting on just about every sport played and a good range of novelty bets to get stuck into. 4/5

Ladbrokes have a very nice site with plenty of good graphics and icons throughout the pages. The red is kept to a minimum and all in all it's pleasing to the eye and fairly fast at loading the pages. 4/5

Boylesports site is simple, sharp and the graphics are kept to a minimum. Like all of the sites the menu bar is down the left and the markets load very quickly. 3.5 / 5

As you would expect from the worlds largest bookmakers Ladbrokes offer the full range of deposit facilities including Paypal and Click and Pay. 5/5
Boylesports can't match the range of the Magic Sign but do offer Netteller and Moneybookers in addition to all major cards. 3/5

RESULT: LADBROKES 15.5 BOYLESPORTS 14

A convincing win for Ladbrokes but they may not find the No.1 Irish firm such a pushover in the next round...

WILLIAM HILL vs VICTOR CHANDLER

Hills offer a simple, effective and straight forward £25 free bet match up. 4/5
Victor Chandler goes one better and offers £50 in the shape of 2 x £25 match-ups. 4.5/5

Hills site is probably the least attractive of all the major firms and requires a lot of scrolling down pages to read all the content. The menus run across the top and the markets load quickly but with moving advertising on the home page it's all a bit of a mess. 2/5
Chandlers is easier on the eye with softer colours and is quite simple in its layout. The markets load very quickly. 3.5/5

Will Hills have markets on the main sports and a few speciality betting options but for a major bookmaker it's all rather uninspiring. 3/5
Chandlers have very few markets outside the main sports and seem to specialise on horse-racing and football. Nothing wrong with that but for those looking for betting on the obscure you won't find it here. 2/5

Both Hills and Chandlers offer the full range of banking options and can't be faulted on their desire to take your money. 5/5 for both

RESULT: WILLIAM HILL 14 CHANDLERS 15

A shock result due mainly to Hills's poor looking site means it's a victory for the independent over one of the major high street firms. Next up for Victor is either

CORALS vs BLUE SQUARE

Coral offer new customers and existing customers 10% return on their monthly losses. There are no free bets currently. 2.5 / 5
Blue Square offer the hard to beat free £25 match up bet. 4/5

Though slightly better than William Hill's site the Coral home page is nothing special and is a maze of drop down menu's leading on to more choices. The pages have to be completely reloaded every time and take some time to do so. 3/5
The Blue Square site looks very nice and sticks with the tried and trusted menu running down the left hand side. The pages load fairly quickly and it's easy to navigate around the markets. Simple yet appealing. 4/5

Corals offer the usual array of sports betting with one or two extras thrown in but there's not much to get excited about here. 3/5
BlueSquare just concentrate on sports and racing without any other markets available. Not even a Eurovision song contest market! 2/5

Corals offer a very poor range of payment options for such a major company with just card payments and a couple of internet money sites. 2.5/5
A bit better from Blue Square but no Paypal. 3.5/5

RESULT: CORALS 11 BLUE SQUARE 13.5

A low scoring match with another knockout for a major high street firm.

I'll be back tomorrow with the bottom half of the draw.

Good luck,
Gavin.

French Un, Deux....

Two Group 1 races from across La Manche (which translates as 'the sleeve' apparently)...

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Poule d'Essai des Poulains (3yo Colts, French version of 2000 Guineas)

The weaker of the two races from a trends point of view but here goes anyway;

The last 10 winners had already run that season.....
Great stat but of no use here as all of the field have had an outing.

The draw is very important at Longchamp and no horse higher than stall 9 has won in the last 10 years....
Diableside is drawn 10 and Born to be King is 11

The four French horses to have won in the last 10 years had all won previously at Longchamp....
Which rules out the whole field according to the Racing Post (they've forgotten to put the course winners in their newspaper race cards) but does actually only eliminate Le Havre, Roi des Sables & Oiseau de Feu

8 of the last 10 winners had a top 4 finish last time out...
Shaweel finished 5th and is passed over

We're left with 5 and we've run out of meaningful trends so it's time to get creative.

8 of the last 10 winners were under 10/1....
so I will lose Handsome Maestro and concentrate on the top 4 in the betting

5 winners had been at least placed in Group 1 company already....
Vocalised has yet to run at a higher level than Group 3

The Fountainebleu Trial race over course and distance has a good record of providing the winner for this race with 5 victories in the last 10 years and is the race I will concentrate on.

This years renewal saw Silver Frost beat the O'Brien runner Westphalia by 1/2 length but with O'Brien's last two winners both being beaten in that race also, his horses usually needing the run and the stable being responsible for 3 winners since 2002 I will side with....

WESTPHALIA

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Poule d'Essai des Pouliches (3yo Fillies, French version of 1000 Guineas)

Again the last 10 winners had all run at least once that season...
and again a less than useful stat as it doesn't exclude a single runner

Again the draw is a major factor with no winner coming from stall 9 or above...
Proportional is 10, Soneva is 9 & Oh Goodness Me is the 11 box

All of the last 10 winners finished in the top 3 last time out...
Undaunted Affair was 5th and Queen America 8th

9 of the last 10 winners hadn't finished out of the top 3 in any of their last 4 runs....
Tamazirte and Entre Deux Eaux are next for the chop

9 of the last 10 winners had won over 7f or a mile....
Providanza has a sole win over 1m 2f to her name

With only 2 favourites in the last 10 years and both long odds-on wonder fillies (Zarkava & Divine Proportions) it may be worth taking Fantasia on.

With 6 of the last 9 winners yet to win a Group race I'm going to overlook Elusive Wave and go with a big outsider who represents the stable who have won the race for the last two years...

DORIANA (Each Way @ 50/1)

Good luck,
Gavin.

Long distance sprint...

I stated mid-week that I don't like Chester and nothing that has happened in the last few days has done anything to change my view on the place.

I would imagine that Johnny Murtagh feels the same way and will be happy to be riding around the relatively normal Lingfield course today after a catalogue of riding mistakes and dubious tactics throughout the Chester meeting. It all came to a head in the 2.45 yesterday when in farcical scenes the 1m 5f Ormonde Stakes was reduced to a 3 furlong sprint. If Johnny Murtagh thinks that is the best way to ride a confirmed stayer in a 1m5f race then he better retire and let Kieran have his job back in September

None of the three jockeys come out of this with any great credit but you can just about excuse William Buick as he did manage to win the race by gradually winding the pace up and using the 2 length advantage he had managed to steal. Apparently they all had similar orders to hold their horses up but surely anyone with half a brain could have seen that it would be a far better idea to try and win from the front than to try and win a 3 furlong sprint on a Derby winner.

(Oh, and one important point, I'm not talking out of my pocket as we tipped the winner in the Trends Guide and I had backed it accordingly.)

-----------

TOP DOG

I was watching the race in the local Betfred with my good friend Matt who had crossed the border to pay a flying visit to us all here at Nag Towers. It was great to see him and catch up but most importantly it was fantastic to subject him to a humiliating and financially damaging defeat on the Scrabble board.

If you read his excellent Geegeez blog it's pretty clear to see that he is a bit more of a linguist than I am which makes the victory even sweeter.

What his visit did mean was that I was unable to post yesterday which also means I will now postpone my quest to find the best online betting site until this Monday.

I plan on pitching the 16 top sites against each other in a knockout tournament over 4 rounds and I'll be looking at all aspects of the betting sites including;
the general look and layout of each site, the range of markets on offer, the number of different payment options, any offers for new customers, who has the best odds available, are there any guarantees, do they take Tote bets, how do they look after you once you signed up, are there any money back offers and what's the customer service like?

Will Betfair be crowned the King of the Bookies?...

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SATURDAY RACING

SWINTON HURDLE

The last 10 winners were all aged 6 or under....
Khyber King, Wingman, Leslingtaylor, Schelm, Top Mark, Pterodactyl, Cockney Trucker, Ellersie Tom, Joe Jo star, Oddshoes, Danehill willy, Toshi, I Hear a Symphony and Dishdasha are all 7 which wipes out over half the field.

9 of the last 10 winners had run less than 10 times over hurdles...
Leamington Lad has to go.

9 of the last 10 were rated between 125 - 136....
Secret Tune (140), Harper valley (141), Hot Diamond (122), Fairyland (123) and Kingscape (123) fall outside this bracket and are dismissed.

9 of the last 10 winners had won one of their last 4 runs...
Pascha Bere hasn't

leaving us with just Proper and Caravel.

With 7 of the last 10 winners posting a top finish last time out and 8 of the last 10 winners coming from the top 5 in the betting preference is for...

CARAVEL


CHARTWELL FILLIES STAKES (LINGFIELD 3.45)

11 of the last 12 winners were aged 3 or 4.....
Chantilly Tiffany and Medicea Sidera are both 5

11 of the last 13 winners had run 9 times or less...
Royal Confidence has raced 14 times

8 of the last 10 winners made the top 3 last time out....
San Sicharia, Baileys Cacao, Infamous Angel and Please sing are the next to go

All of the last 12 winners had a top 5 finish over 7f...
Select has only ran at 6f

We're left with two and both have strong claims.

With 9 of the last 11 winners running over 7f last time out and 9 of the last 11 being ridden prominently throughout I will over look the French raider Chasing Stars in favour of the Willie Haggas trained....

DAMANIYAT GIRL


DERRINSTOWN DERBY TRIAL

Some very strong trends for this trial make it a race worth having a closer look at....

12 of the last 13 made the top 3 last time out...
Hail Caesar, Liszt, Loch Long and Tarankali did not

12 of the 13 had a top 2 finish over the course...
doesn't help
12 of the last 13 winners had a win at 7f-1m2f...
nor does that
9 of the last 11 winners had a top 2 finish in a pattern race
or that

but, the last 9 winners had all run 4 times or less....
which rules out Fergus McIver and Mourayan and leaves us with

FAME AND GLORY

Today's BB Bet will be £2 EW Singles and a 50p EW Patent on the three

Good luck,
Gavin.

5 of the best....

It's the start of Chester today and being one of my least favourite tracks to bet at I won't be wagering too much over the next couple of days. It is worth remembering though that Barry Hills always targets this meeting and with his horses running out of their skins at the moment he's bound to have at least a couple of winners this week.

I'd much rather wait for a couple of my favourite Spring races being run this Saturday, The Victoria Cup and the Swinton Hurdle. More of that later in the week though as I haven't had chance to go through the form yet.

Which leaves me with a big hole in today's post which I will fill with my look at the.....


5 SITES EVERY HORSE-RACING FAN MUST HAVE IN THEIR FAVOURITES FOLDER

1) Obviously number 1 are the NagNagNag and Geegeez Blogs.

Loads of free stuff, expert analysis, news, opinions and a lot more besides. Written by two witty, intelligent, honest and incredibly handsome racing aficionados they have to be the best free sites on the web.

2) Oddschecker

The market leader for all odds comparison sites and rightly so. An enormous array of betting markets with all the main firms listed along with their respective odds. When I have a horse to back it's the first place I look to find out who has the best price.

Note to all you religious Betfair users: Not every horse in every race is the best price on Betfair!

It's very easy to navigate and all the markets are very well laid out. A superb site and a must for anyone who takes their betting seriously.

Check it out here; http://www.oddschecker.com/

3) RACING POST

The new site relaunch got off to a bad start and there were definitely big problems early on but they seem to have got it together now and their site is a mine of information. The form database is massive and the amount of stats, facts and figures is completely mind boggling. With a results archive stretching back over 20 years and a search facility for every horse it's also a one-stop place for all trends followers.

Their new Pricewise Extra tipping service is available everyday from noon and has had an amazing run since its inception. Definitely worth checking out daily.

All in all an essential tool for all form students and the best bit is, its FREE!

Register here; http://www.racingpost.com/

3) Attheraces

Another free site that offers an enormous amount of content for your no-money. Choc full of news, info, tipsters, ratings and features there's enough here to satisfy any race fans hunger. They usually run a micro-site for all the big meetings which supply a generous amount of analysis for each race at the meeting.

For those of you without SKY or access to the Attheraces Channel you can subscribe to the service online and get the 'LIVE' racing for just £9.99 a month. As long as you have a decent Internet connection the racing is streamed to your computer with just a short time delay.

TIP: However, all other video content on the site is completely free and that includes the replays and news features. They put the race replays up quite quickly after the race has been run so as long as you don't mind not seeing the race live you can actually watch the racing for free.

The site is here; http://www.attheraces.com/index.aspx

5) BETFAIR

Okay, so they might not have the best price available every time but there's no denying that overall it pays to bet with the king of the exchanges. There is commission to pay and this can sometimes negate any advantage over SP but the sheer size of the site and the number of markets available to bet on is simply staggering.

Throw in the in-running betting and the option of trading-out for a profit and it's clear to see why Betfair has be a revelation since opening it's doors. It has it's critics and there are plenty of things wrong with it (not least the high commission rates) but it does offer an edge to every punter and that has got to be a good thing when we're all just trying to turn our betting into a profitable sideline.

Every punter has to have a Betfair account but just don't get blinkered into believing it always offers the best price.

http://www.betfair.com/ for those who don't have an account yet.


Continuing on from this post, as of tomorrow I'm going to see just which online betting site is the best. I've lined up the 16 big name companies and after pairing them up I'll run a simple knockout style system to see who is the KING OF THE INTERNET.

Will it be BETFAIR or will one of the more traditional bookmakers take the crown?

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SPECIAL OFFER

In an early attempt to win the Nag3 King of the Internet Title, Corals have just initiated what is probably the best offer available online at the moment and one that is sure to be copied by all the major firms.

They are giving all losing customers 10% of their money back every month. I've checked the small print and it all looks as good as it sounds though obviously to qualify for this money you do actually have to lose, which is never a good thing!

But we all have losing months every now and again and if we can get some of those losses back then I'm all for that.

The only thing you have to do is register for the offer at the site and once that is done your account will be credited every month with a 10% cash back of your monthly deficit. It also only applies to online business so it's no good keeping a pile of losing betting slips and trying to get 10% back from your local Corals betting shop!

Good luck,
Gavin.

Bank Holiday Blues.....

After the highs of the weekend and being spoilt with the quality of the horses on offer it is with a almighty crash we come back down to earth for the most mundane Bank Holiday racing action I can ever remember.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, 'what has happened to Bank Holiday racing?, where are the Group 1 tracks and the TV racing?' If any member of the BHB is reading this perhaps they can enlighten me.

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4 things I have learnt this weekend.....

1) Playing online poker until 4 .30 in the morning isn't a good idea when it's your turn to get up with your hyper-active five year old. Luckily I managed a 4th place finish in the poker for $1800 and was able to bribe the missus with the promise of some swanky restaurant if she did the decent thing and got up and gave Dylan his Sugar Puffs.

2) Counting your chickens is never a good idea. Having had a £5ew Lucky 15 on my four main trends fancies for the weekend I was dreaming of that First Class Upgrade and a week in the Bellagio when Sea The Stars and Amour Propre had done the business on the Saturday. With what I thought was my strongest runner still to come it was looking good but of course eggs are eggs and chickens are chickens and Baby Strange ran like a donkey leaving me feeling slightly deflated. Shimah's run was just as bad but a decent bet on my other trends horse Take the Hint may just about get me into Premium Economy but I'll still have to 'slum' in it in the Monte Carlo. Mind you there's always Chester.....

3) There is no draw bias at Newmarket in sprint fields of less than 20 runners. Having whittled the field for yesterday's sprint down to 5 runners using two very strong ratings and weight trends I ditched the eventual 1st and 2nd because of their low draw. The three I was left with all had high draws and were all unsighted. Maybe Thebes running so fast throughout the race took the low numbers along with him but previous results may just have been a statistical anomaly.

Well actually the 4th one is something I didn't learn this weekend and that is the name of the Derby or Oaks winner. Personally, I doubt either Epsom winner will come from the Guineas but I'd be hopeful of seeing him/her run in the mass of trials coming up in the next fortnight. As soon as I have spotted what I consider to be either winner I'll be sure to let you know.

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Here's one stat for you all about a trainer with a runner today.

Willie Haggas has had 5 winners from 6 runners in 3yo+ maidens at Warwick for a £1 level stakes profit of £21.97, that's an 83% strike rate!

Today he runs Storming Sioux in the 4.10

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TRENDS GUIDE

After another fantastic weekend for our trends publication I'll hold open the special May offer until the beginning of the Chester meeting on Wednesday.

From the 5 races we had runners in at Newmarket our trends selections picked 3 winners; Sea the Stars 8/1, Amour Propre 7/1 and Take the Hint 15/2 which should have pleased even the most critical of punters.

The May Trends bandwagon rolls onto Chester this week before calling at Lingfield, York, Newbury, Curragh and the final meeting of the month, Sandown for the Brigadier Gerard Stakes.

You can get all the guides for all these meetings for just £14.95 by clicking below...

MAY TRENDS GUIDES

Good luck,
Gavin.

Action packed Bank Holiday weekend.....

What an incredible weekend for all horse racing and sports fans. Punchestown for jump fans, the two Guineas for followers of the flat, The Kentucky Derby for those who like the dirt, the greyhound Derby continues tonight for all dog lovers, Heineken Cup rugby, Premier League football, world snooker, IPL cricket, Golf, Big Fight Boxing for all the sport junkies and Britain's Got Talent tonight as the icing on the cake....

It looks like this particular Bank Holiday weekend will be spent in front of the telly, Budweiser in the fridge, Domino's Pizza on speed-dial and the laptop set to Betfair. Just my luck that it's not raining on this Bank Holiday as I have promised my son a visit to the park for a game of football.
If I've worked it out correctly I think I've got a 60 minute time-slot between the snooker and the 2 o'clock at Newmarket (if I miss a bit of the cricket) to quickly run around the field, score a few goals and buy him an ice-cream.

And for what it's worth I think Ricky Hatton is great value at 6/4 and Susan Boyle will not win Britain's Got Talent despite the 100million+ you tube hits.

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BONUS BALL - PART I

I've finally got through the 400 odd emails I received this month and can now announce the lucky winners who all managed to find Bonus Ball 38.

ROBERT C - DAVID V

PETER C - ANDREW C

STEVE J - DAVE J

SIMON F

With £200 in the Prizepool you will all receive a cheque for £28.50.

I've sent out the congratulatory emails and I just need an address from you to know where to send the money.

One important thing I would like to point out. I don't actually go through the emails on this email address until the end of the month when the draw is made and on going through them I have just found a few people had written in regarding Blog / Trends related issues. If you do need a reply from me can you use the gavin@nag-nag-nag.co.uk email address for a quicker response. Thanks.

BONUS BALL - PART II

The entries have been wiped clean and it's time to start again for the month of May. To try and get the prizepool up and running I will be having the following bet this weekend....

There is just the one horse I'm interested in today away from the races I've covered in this weekend's Trends Guide and he runs in the 2.00 Newmarket.

He's only ever won one race but he's run some cracking races in defeat and has seconds to Dr Faustus & Conduit in his form book plus being sent off favourite to beat Unnefer and Centennial shows how highly regarded he was in the early stages of his career. He was bought to go hurdling this winter but after pulling up behind classy Starluck those plans were shelved and it's now back to the flat. A fourth on the AW when hampered and then a really unlucky run last week at Epsom behind Duncan leaves me thinking that today is the day when everything will fall into place. Down a couple of pounds in the rating he is my first bet of the month and my big fancy of the day, he is...

2.00 New RAMONA CHASE

I will add to him the following horses;

Matt Williams from the Racing Post, Nap of the Day

2.55 Goodwood SCUFFLE

Interesting stat: Jim Crowley has ridden 8 winners from 13 rides so far this season for trainer Richard Price. Today they combine with;

3.45 Newmarket HOH HOH HOH

Having gone through the form for the Kentucky Derby I think the horse that offers the best value is the Bob Baffert trained, Garret Gomez ridden

10.24 Churchill Downs PIONEER OF THE NILE

who ran 5th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile and is now 4 from 4 since switching to his current trainer. He has beaten likely favourite I Want Revenge on a synthetic surface and though it's his first run on dirt I'm pretty sure he should be able to handle it and confirm the placings.

The bet will be as usual, 4 x £2.50ew singles and a 20pew Lucky 15

So, same rules and the same entry procedure as always. Just send a number 1-49 to

quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk and you too could be a winner like our friends mentioned above.


This months draw will be the 30th May.

And a second point that has arisen from the emails, and one that I would like to clear up, is that this competition is open to everyone who reads this blog. Whether you are a first time reader or long time sufferer you can have a go. It's free to enter and you really can win free money!

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THE SATURDAY SMILE will replace the FRIDAY FUN this week

Just a few of the things I'll be showing my son how to do on the football field later on...




Good luck,
Gavin.

P.S. It's still not too late to get the Newmarket trends guide (7 races) and 6 other big meetings for May. It's just £14.95 for the entire month and you can get it below

MAY MADNESS