The Aintree Festival....

It's a return to the betting shop for me this Summer as I'm going back to my old shop in Porthcawl to manage it for a friend. It wasn't something I was planning on doing but at least it means I'll get to watch all the racing, every day.

My first day is this Saturday's Grand National and although it's hard work (especially as the shop still relies on the old method of working the bets out manually) it's always great fun. The same old faces coming in every year telling you they've never placed a bet before, people putting 20 horses on a single slip with 10pew on each one and then everyone coming in for their winnings 10 seconds after the horses have passed the post. Happy Days. Nothing's changed in the last 20 years I've been doing it and hopefully it never will!

And as I'm now donning my bookies hat once more I thought I'd have a look at a few horses who I would be willing to lay at Aintree this week...

Aintree Hurdle (Saturday 2.50pm)

All 12 horses that finished 2nd in the Champion Hurdle to have raced here have been beaten and after the hard race Celestial Halo had at Cheltenham he would be top of my list for horses to lay. His age and experience would count against him too and given that this race has been a grave-yard for fancied runners in recent years it begins to look pretty bleak for the favourite. The step up from 2 miles to 2m 4f after such a hard race at Cheltenham a month before has proved too much for all of these great horses; 2008 Champion Hurdle runner-up Osana, Rooster Booster, Make a Stand, Flakey Dove, Granville Again, See You Then at 4/9 and even the mighty Istabraaq which just goes to show how badly things are stacked against Celestial Halo.

MILDMAY NOVICES CHASE (Friday 2.35pm)

After his fine 3rd in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham there is sure to be a lot of interest in Massini's Maguire but there are plenty of negatives to his overall profile and he looks another one worth taking on. Horses who win this race tend to be young horses with winning form at the distance and have a couple of recent wins to their name which unfortunately doesn't sound a lot like Massini's Maguire. He looked a little one paced behind Cooldine at Cheltenham and there are plenty of decent horses in this field to get this one beat.

GRAND NATIONAL (Saturday 4.15pm)

It seems quite staggering to me that My Will has been so heavily backed and is now the 7/1 favourite. Yes, Ruby Walsh is a great jockey and Paul Nicholls is the best trainer around at the moment but come on that price is just ridiculous. The simple fact that he has 11s 4lbs to carry should be enough to deter anyone from backing him and that's before you introduce the fact that he is a French bred. Add in the trainers 1 placed runner from 31 attempts in the last 10 years and that My Will has only raced twice this season and you're left with no option but to lay him, not back him!

Given my form over the past 12 months I'm sure they'll be plenty of you rushing to back these 3 but I certainly won't be!

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AINTREE FESTIVAL TRENDS GUIDE

The guide is now complete with all 21 races covered. There are the usual trends, stats and trainer information along with the Key Race Trial included in the guide. It is over 70 pages long and includes the Special 15 page Grand National Preview.

Also ready for download now is our 4 for Aintree sheet where we will be hoping to match our success at Cheltenham in pinpointing 33/1 winner Something Wells. We have 4 big priced selections running in various races at the Festival and we are very keen on one of them should the trainer to decide to run him in the 'right' race.

In response to the feedback we received after the Cheltenham Guide all the Updates will be available from the night before and these will include the latest Trends, News, Ratings and Placepot selections.

The first update will therefore be ready for download from 9pm Wednesday.

Read all about it here >>> 2009 Aintree Festival Trends Guide

Best regards,
Gavin.

Sprint handicap.....

Just a quick post to give you my thoughts on today's big sprint handicap.
I've narrowed it down to 3; Northern Fling, River Falcon & Joseph Henry

Joseph Henry always runs well fresh and due to his consistency never gets a break from the handicapper and so starts this season of a mark of 89. He is more than capable of winning of this mark. Greatest concern though is the ground as he ran his best races last season on softer ground so it may all happen a bit quick for him. River Falcon is a frustrating horse full of ability but he doesn't have a great win record. He flashed home in last seasons Portland handicap just failing to catch Hogmaneigh, then ran 10th in the Ayr Gold Cup before a fine 1 length 4th to Judge N Jury.

The selection though goes to Northern Fling who's had 2 runs in Dubai including one behind Big City Man and then beaten only 11/4L by Balthazaars Gift. Providing the exertions of travelling haven't taken the edge of him I think he looks a great e/w bet at around 12/1.

Selection: Northern Fling

Good luck,
Gavin.

4 for today....

I'm afraid I'm feeling a bit rough this morning having drunk far too much last night. It was only a PTA quiz night at my son's school but somehow turned into an all night drinking session back here at Nag HQ. Luckily my sons been packed off to Grandma's for the weekend so at least I didn't have him bounding in at 6.30 this morning. What it does mean though is today's post will be short and to the point!

Through the haze and fog of my red wine hangover I've managed to pick out four for the Bonus Ball Bet....

BONUS BALL BET

The Lincoln: ZAAHID

I'm going to stick with Zaahid which is the horse I went for in the Trends Guide.
If you haven't got your copy yet simply click below

FREE LINCOLN TRENDS GUIDE

It's 100% free with no sign-up, no membership & absolutely no catch.

The Spring Mile: RAPTOR
Cammidge Trophy: TAMAGIN

When I did my 10 horses to follow for this flat season I didn't realise I would have two running so soon. Ideally I wanted to see them come down a few pounds before getting stuck in but at 50/1 & 20/1 I'll take a chance today and hope they can nick a place.

4.45 Kempton: REGAL PARADE

He came to my rescue last season with his 33/1 Ayr Gold Cup win and I'll stick with him today.

4 x £2.50ew Singles + 20pew Lucky 15

All winnings go to the Prizepool which you can win by simply sending a number (1-49) to

quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk

Free to enter and you really do get the cash (well a cheque) if your number matches the Bonus Ball in the National Lottery main draw.

I think I should have put Red Wine (5.40 Doncaster) in the bet.

I'm doing my best to fight the temptation and give Bankable another try at Nad al Sheba today. I said at the end of last season I would never back him again but Mike de Kock looks to have found the key to him and his win last time out was quite impressive. Be strong Gavin, fight that urge......

Good luck today,
Gavin.

P.S. If you downloaded the Lincoln Trends Guide and liked what you saw then my Aintree Guide will be out Monday. Each race is done exactly the same as I have done here (well except for the draw!) with the same trends, facts and figures.

Read all about it here >>> 2009 Aintree Festival Trends Guide

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I'm back. My usual hangover cure which consists of a bag of Starbursts and a carton of Tropicana Smooth Orange juice has done the trick yet again and I'm now ready to take on the Dubai World Cup Meeting.

I'll start with the main race The Dubai World Cup and apply some trends....

- The last 10 winners had all run a minimum of 8 times
- The last 9 winners had all had one run so far that season finishing 1st or 2nd (8/9 finished 1st)
- All of the last 10 winners were trained by S. Bin Suroor or in America
- 4 or 5yo's have won 9 of the last 10 World Cups
- 8 of the last 10 were already Grade 1 or Group 1 winners
- 8 of the last 10 had won at the distance

Nothing in the field fits all the trends but those closest to the perfect profile are Albertus Maximus and My Indy. With just the distance win missing from Albertus Maximus's CV I will side with him as two other horses in the last decade were also winning at the distance for the first time.

Selection: Albertus Maximus.

For the rest of the card you'll have to put up with my personal fancies.
I'll leave it up to you to decide if you want to back them, lay them or ignore them!

1.40 Two Step Salsa. 3rd in last seasons Breeders Cup Dirt Mile, a good draw, Frankie chooses this one over his stable companion and won well on his last run. Probably picked the wrong one of the Bin Suroor horses though. That would make me a little mad.

2.15 Desert Party. Another Bin Suroor / Dettori pick but he looks so far clear on what he has acheived so far I can't see past this one. Only a mad man would take those odds though.

2.55 Big City Man. He's already won two at this track and was just caught last time when trying to make it 3 from 3. It was no disgrace to be beaten by Gayego and, hopefully, compensation awaits in a race so tough only a insane person would back in it.

3.55 Bankable. I've been fighting a losing battle trying to stop myself from backing this one and if Kip Deville wins I'll be kicking myself all weekend. I just can't help myself, I must be mad. Hahahahaha.

4.4o What a cracking Group 1 this is. There are plenty in with a chance and I'll probably be backing two against the field. The ultra reliable Doctor Dino and Melbourne Cup 2nd Purple Moon. Make that three against the field as I might have a few quid each way on Deem as well at 50/1. I am mad!

And what are these men in white coats doing here?.......

Free Lincoln Guide....

As promised, for all my loyal blog readers I have a special Festival Trends Publication for Saturday's William Hill Lincoln ready for you to download. This is your chance to get an exclusive early look at the Guide and there's......

No email needed. No sign Up needed. No money needed. No catch at all.

It's completely 100% Free.

There's 5 pages filled with trends, trainer stats, facts, figures, draw analysis and the exclusive Nag Ratings

With the track having undergone renovations in 2006-2007, and the Lincoln being moved to Newcastle and Redcar for those two years, I've concentrated on the last 10 runnings of the race at Doncaster only.

And if you don't want to wade through all the information yourself I've even applied the trends and come up with the most likely trends winner for you.

It's 100% Free and you can get it here;

FREE LINCOLN TRENDS GUIDE

I hope you find something of use in the guide and feel free to leave any comments at the end of the post.

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The FRIDAY STATS

Not quite as strong as the last stat I gave out but it's still not too bad.

Christian Williams has a 75% (3 from 4) strike rate when partnering Alison Thorpe horses at Fontwell over the past 5 seasons.

Today they get together in the 3.20 with Insignia (10/1 in the R. Post)

Nicky Henderson has a 57% strike rate (4 from 7) with his NH flat horses at Fontwell and runs likely favourite Benartic today in the 5.40pm

Another thing that caught my eye today was that jockey Paul Moloney has a ride in the 3.30pm at Ascot and then another ride at Fontwell just an hour and a half later in Fontwell's 5.05pm. I know it's not that far between the two courses but I doubt he has access to a helicopter and it doesn't leave him that much time between rides. Could be nothing but he rides topweight Dew Drop Inn at Fontwell after doing the steering aboard Akarshan at Ascot for those who like this kind of information.

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FRIDAY FUN

Following on from a couple of weeks ago, here's a clip that's guaranteed to make you realise there are plenty of people with worse luck than you!

Dodgy haircut....$1.50
New suit and tie....$200
Air fare to studio.....$450
College Education.......$20,000

The look on his face when he realises what he's done.........PRICELESS!!





Good luck,
Gavin.

P.S. The Aintree Trends Guide is still available. £11.95 until 7pm tonight.

Read all about it here >>> 2009 Aintree Festival Trends Guide

Classic Do's and Don'ts

With the flat now 'under starters orders' I thought I'd have a look at the early market for the first Classic of the season....

2000 GUINEAS (May 2nd, Newmarket, 1 Mile)

With many of the best horses in his care and the winner of the 2000 Guineas having come from Ballydoyle 3 out of the last 4 years it makes sense to start with Mr O'Brien. His main hopes of making it 4 from 5 look like they lie with.....

ultra-impressive Phoenix stakes winner Mastercraftsman, beaten Dewhurst favourite Rip Van Winkle and Breeders Cup Juvenile runner up Westphalia. O'Brien has won the 2000 Guineas before with what appeared to be his second string but this year, of the three, I do like the look of his most fancied runner Mastercraftsman. The way he destroyed Art Connoisseur in the Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh was, for me, the best juvenile performance all year. He had a hard race in heavy going back at the Curragh for his next run in the National Stakes before disappointing in the Grand Criterium just three weeks later. Two Group 1 runs in such a short time was a bit too much to ask and I doubt O'Brien would have run him were it not for the fact he was chasing the Group 1 record at the time. A freshened up and battle ready Mastercrafstman is the one they all have to beat.

Crowded House ended his season winning the Racing Post Trophy but his form wasn't overly exciting before that and winners of this race tend to need a bit further than the 8f of the Guineas. At his current price I wouldn't be rushing to back him.

Naaqoos is trained by Freddie Head and probably has the French Guineas as his early season target but should he run in the Newmarket version he would be a major player in what looks like an open race at this stage. He was the main benefactor of Mastercraftsmans poor run in the Grand Criterium taking the race by a neck to supplement his previous win over course and distance.

Evasive won the Group 3 Horris Hill at Newbury by 1/2 length but had looked set to win by much further at the furlong pole. He will need to improve on what he has shown so far but under the handling of Sir Michael Stoute there's every chance that this could happen. He will be one to look out for once the Guineas Trials begin.

Arazan was a short priced favourite to beat Mastercraftsman in the National Stakes on the back of an impressive win in the mud over course and distance the race before but he could only manage 3rd place and was not seen out again that season. He had looked good in winning the Futurity (Westphalia well beaten in 7th) but it may have been a case of him being able to handle the bog-like conditions better than his rivals that day. I would only consider him for the Guineas if the rain descended on Newmarket in biblical proportions.

Bushranger was, like Westphalia, another Irish horse to have a crack at the Breeders Cup but racing wide throughout he didn't seem to handle the conditions or surface and he finished well behind. David Wachmans colt had looked progressive before this trans-atlantic disaster and if the experience hasn't left any long term damage to him he could have a chance.

It's difficult to enthuse about too many and I'll need to see the trials before getting stuck in but Mastercraftsman would be the one for me at the moment. He's currently the favourite so it's not the most inspired choice I've ever made but there aren't too many alternatives at this stage

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I'm all set for the flat and especially those big sprint handicaps which I love getting stuck into. For those of you who enjoy them too here are a few of my....

Do's and Don'ts for betting in Sprint Handicaps.

Do...

Take note of the Draw. At some tracks the sprint draw is so biased if you're horse is drawn on the wrong side of the course you may as well throw your money down a drain. It's probably the most important part of picking a Sprint winner and should not be ignored.

Consider a sprinters optimum conditions. Some sprinters can win at 5f or 6f but others have done all their winning at just the one distance, some like soft going and some like it fast and some sprinters seem to come into form at the same time of the season every year. Look at the highest handicap rating a horse has won off, whether it likes straight tracks or round courses, has it had the best/worst of the draw and use all this information to see if a horse is out of form or just not had his favoured condition for a while. Backing sprinters with bad form figures but who now race under optimum conditions is the best way to back big priced winners. If a horse has been running badly under favoured conditions then he is best avoided until showing signs of returning to form.

Follow sprinters in form. Once a sprinter gets his favoured conditions and starts winning races they can become difficult to beat and able to defy hefty weight rises along the way. Some trainers are adept at turning their horses out quickly while they have them in good form (Milton Bradley is probably the best at this) and running up a quick-fire sequence. One thing I don't like doing though is backing a horse who runs up a string of wins and then has a break. Backing a 'sequence horse' after a layoff is never a good idea.

Don't....

Be put off by bad form figures. It's worth repeating that those 6 '0's in a horse's form may just be a case of the horse running over 6f when he has only won at 5f, being badly drawn or racing on unsuitable going. If everything is now in his favour, GET ON!

Back 3-y-o's in big race all aged sprints. For whatever reason, they just don't seem to win that often. Personally, I never back 3yo's in all aged sprints.

Back a horse racing off a higher rating than it has won off. All sprinters have a peak rating above which they can't win and my favourite way of picking sprint winners is to find a sprinter who has slipped back down to, or below, his highest winning rating. The exception to this rule is if a horse is running well and obviously improving (i.e. running up a sequence)

A prime example of this was a horse called Chaplins Club who raced in the 80's and 90's. He won 9 handicaps in one season and his rating went from 47-93. He didn't win another race for 3 years and his rating fell back down to 52. This was just what the doctor ordered as he did it all over again winning another 9 sprint handicaps that season finishing again with a rating in the low 90's. Great horse and some very happy punting memories ;-)

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AINTREE TRENDS GUIDE

Tomorrow is the last day the Special Offer price of £11.95 will be available and after 7pm Friday the Aintree Guide will revert to the usual £14.95.

Read all about it here >>> 2009 Aintree Festival Trends Guide

And Matt has just a few places left for his flat race profiling guide

>>> MATTS FLAT RACING PROFILES

Good luck,
Gavin.

10 to keep your eye on....

Gavin's Ten To Follow for the 2009 Flat Season

No list would be complete without a couple of Aiden O'Brien horses so here are two 3yo's for mine;

MALIBU BAY (3yo Trainer: Aiden O'Brien)

Just the one run and one win on the soft at Navan in a big field maiden. He showed a good attitude, staying on well when strongly pressed inside the final furlong and with the first two pulling well clear of the third horse it looked a nice introduction. Bred to be a distance horse and probably wanting better ground than he got here he may be one of the 'darker' O'Brien 3yo's.

MASTERCRAFTSMAN (3yo Trainer: Aiden O'Brien)

Nothing dark about this O'Brien 3yo, in fact you'll probably need the sunglasses, but he was mightily impressive in the Phoenix Stakes where he trounced the highly regarded Art Connoissuer by 4 1/2 lengths and that run has just stuck in mind. He wasn't at his best when flopping in the Grand Criterium and probably wouldn't have run but for Aiden O'Brien chasing the record Group 1 race total. I'm really looking forward to seeing him back on the track and hopefully winning the 2000 Guineas.

EVASIVE (3yo Trainer:Sir Michael Stoute )

He started his career with just a promising third on the AW at Kempton but got off the mark soon after, at Newmarket, at the beginning of October. It was his win in what used to be the Horris Hill at Newbury 3 weeks later that had me reaching for my notepad as he quickened 3 lengths clear at the furlong pole. He tied up quite badly in the soft ground but the explosion of speed he showed was devastating and on better ground he could be a major player in the 3yo colt division this season.

JUDGE N JURY (5yo Trainer: R. Harris Official Rating:109)

He did us proud last year with plenty of sprint wins and his comeback run in a Listed Race on the All Weather last Saturday was full of promise. Over 5f he looks to be going places and should pick up at least a Group 3 somewhere this season.

MAMLOOK (5yo, Trainer: D. Pipe Official rating: 89)

Regular readers of this blog will know I'm a big fan of this dual purpose horse who ran some great races on the flat last year including at Royal Ascot. He looks just the type for something like the Chester Cup and then onto the Royal Ascot meeting to try and go one better in the Ascot Stakes. He needs fast ground.

TWICE OVER (4yo Trainer: Henry Cecil Official rating: 116)

No list of mine would be complete without 1 (or 2) from the Henry Cecil stable and this one time Derby favourite should be one of the leading older horses this year. He signed off last season with a fine second to New Approach in the Champion Stakes and all the major 1m - 1m 2f Group races will be his target this season.

APPLE CHARLOTTE (3yo Trainer Henry Cecil)

The other Cecil horse in my list is this 3yo filly who won her only start at the backend of last season in a Newmarket big field maiden. Her breeding suggests that she won't be going further than a mile this season and hopefully the Guineas will be on the early season agenda.


RAPTOR (6yo Trainer:K. Burke Official rating: 90)

With 5 duck eggs in his last 5 runs you probably think I've gone mad suggesting this one as a horse to follow but there's plenty to like about his chances of a big win this year. Not least of which is the fact that his rating has plummetted from the 102 he started last year on to just 90 for the start of this flat season. An 11th in the Lincoln, a 2nd at the Curragh and a win in a 3 runner race at Yarmouth were all good runs and it certainly wasn't a bad start to last year but then his form went into a steep nosedive leaving him with a string of '0's in his form and this attractive lower handicap mark. When he races on Good, Good/Soft turf at around 7f he could bag a big handicap.

KAVACHI (6yo Trainer: G. Moore OR:87)

Another fairly dark horse who finished his season at the end of last July with a running on 9th of 20 in a Goodwood handicap. He had started the season in good style but found a rating of 90 a bit too high for his last two runs. He's now been dropped a few pounds to 87 which is the same mark that saw him run a good 4th in the Hunt Cup at Ascot. If his mark slips a little less and he runs on softish ground he could have a big handicap in him.

TAMAGIN (6yo Trainer: K. Ryan OR 98)

He switches effortlessly from AW to turf and all going seems alike to him. He has won 8 races so far in his career and it would seem his form is fairly exposed but I think he may have a big sprint in him these season. He starts this year with a Turf rating of 98 and though that's higher than he's ever won off he did run 5th in last years Wokingham from a rating of 101. 3 solid starts on the AW this winter have shown him to be in good form and I would imagine his main target early season will be something like the Victoria Cup at Ascot.

That's my 10 to look out for. Feel free to leave your own 10 TF in the comments box at the end of the Post.

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Aintree Festival Trends Guide



The Grand National meeting starts in 9 days time and time is running out if you want to pre-order your Trends Guide at the offer price of just £11.95. After Friday the price will revert to the normal selling price of £14.95.

Buy now and you can download a special 16 page Grand National Race Preview right away.

Read all about it here >>> 2009 Aintree Festival Trends Guide

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Matt's Flat Racing Profiles

There's been a lot of hype surrounding the release of this product and Matt's been sending out plenty of emails to keep you all informed so you probably already know that his Flat Racing Profiles Guide goes on sale this Thursday at Midday.

But, you may not know exactly what it's all about and you may still be wondering what precisely is, racing profiling. So, to help you answer all your questions Matt has stuck another Video on his website which will hopefully explain everything (and don't worry he's stayed the right side of the camera for this one!)

Demand for this product has been quite staggering and heck knows how many servers he's crashed over the past week with people downloading all the free stuff and signing up for Thursday's big release, so be warned, if you like what you see you'll need to get your name down on the Early Bird List as numbers are strictly limited and it will be first come, first served on Thursday. (The Early Bird sign up box is on the web page).

You may be thinking that you've heard all this before and that it's just sales talk to drum up interest but believe me I've seen the numbers of downloads and signups and they've got to be some of the biggest in internet history for a racing product. I also know that Matt means it when he says that he will be limiting the numbers of Members for this particular product as he wants to safegaurd against any variance in the betting markets.

Matt gave me an advance copy of his Horserace Profiling Guides and I'd say they are worth 10 times what he's is charging, nobody will be disappointed when they receive them. The amount of work that has gone in to producing them is just amazing.

Anyway, enough of building Matt's ego up, if you want to have a look at what all the fuss is about, click below;

>>> MATTS FLAT RACING PROFILES

But be sure to sign up to the early bird list if you're interested.

Good luck,
Gavin.

Forget the jumps, here comes the flat....

With Cheltenham memories still fresh in the mind and anticipation now mounting for the Grand National it's easy to forget that the Flat season starts this weekend.

The traditional curtain raiser is the Lincoln and in bold move the Doncaster powers that be have scrapped the usual 3 day meeting in favour of a Saturday - Sunday weekend extravaganza. By cutting out the rubbish and keeping the best races it looks a great step forward and, even though there's bound to be the usual uproar from the traditionalists, I for one think it's the perfect way to announce the arrival of the Flat season.

And while we're in the no-mans land of the Cheltenham-Aintree gap I'll take this opportunity to have a look at the forthcoming Flat season in a series of features this week...

In Tuesday's post I'll reveal 10 horses to follow this season (A few obvious, A few not so obvious, A few dark ones and one so dark it's obvious I've gone stark raving mad)

Wednesday I'll take a look at the Ante-Post markets for the early Classics.

Thursday. 5 do's, don'ts and golden rules for backing in Big Field Sprint Handicaps.

And on Friday I've got a FREE download available exclusively for all our loyal Blog Readers. (More info at the end of today's Post)

I'm really looking forward to the flat this year and especially those big field sprint handicaps. I love 'em and will be doing my best to pick out some winners whenever and wherever they stage one. We had some of our best successes towards the end of last season in these types of races and we'll be looking to get off to a flyer in Sunday's 4.15pm at Doncaster.

But back to today and...

Today's Bet

I've been waiting a long time for this one to run and it transpires that the trainer has been waiting just as long as me for the ground to dry up. I had him as a horse to follow this past winter but he hasn't been out since running poorly in the soft back in November. Back on this firmer ground he should get back to the sort of form he showed at Ascot behind Busker Royale.

Cavallini is the horse and many may want to question his resolution because he has 4 seconds to his name at the start of the season but I think it was just a question of him running up against some good horses and as he did win three times on the flat he knows all about getting his head in front.

If he's fit enough to do himself justice today he's good enough to win this race and should he run well here it wouldn't surprise me if he was turned out quickly to run at Aintree next week.

Selection: Cavallini

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Bonus Ball Bet

Number 8 was the Lucky Number and just 2 readers managed to guess correctly. Step forward....

and
Mike R from Truro.

£25.68 will be winging its way to you as soon as I have your details.

Congratulations to the both of you!

If you want to win some FREE cash then simply send a number (1-49) to

quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk.

All guesses are now cleared and new entries are being accepted for the next draw which will be...

Wednesday 29th April Main Lottery Draw.

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To mark the start of the Flat Season proper this Saturday I have done a Special 3 Page Lincoln Festival Trends Publication that I will be offering FREE to all our loyal Blog Readers.

The Guide will be available for Download from Friday and is exclusively available to readers of this and Matt's Geegeez Blog Only.

More details later in the week.

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Aintree Festival Guide

The finishing touches are now being applied to the trends and stats for the 2009 Aintree Festival Guide and then it's a case of waiting to see the entries before completing everything.

At around 75 pages including a 16 page Special Grand National Preview it's great value at just £11.95.

But this price is only available for a few more days so order now to take advantage of the offer. The Grand National Section is ready for download now and includes our 2 Ante-Post Picks.

Read all about it here >>> 2009 Aintree Festival Trends Guide

Good Luck,
Gavin.

1 from 1 and 8 from 8.....

8/1 was quite a staggering price for our sole runner and winner yesterday when Mr Gardner kept up the Henderson/McCoy 100% record at Newbury going. This now means they are an amazing 8 winners from 8 runners this season. With the amount of coverage that particular stat had received in most of yesterdays press I was fully expecting it to go off at around 5/2 - 3/1 but I'm certainly not complaining and a nice each way bet at the 8's has given me a few quid to play with today.....

WINTER DERBY

Not technically a Winter derby now as the first day of Spring was yesterday but hey, who cares when there's such a great card on offer. If this doesn't whet your appetite for the forthcoming flat season then I guess you're a NH diehard or you really do detest the AW.

The Trends

- 9 of the last 10 winners had won on an AW surface

Halicarnassus is the only one not to have an AW win

- And 8 of the 10 winners had won an AW race since the start of the year

Which would discount Baylini, Bronze Cannon, Docofthebay, International Debut and Without a Prayer

- 8 of the last 10 winners had won at Class 2 or higher

Which would only exclude the already excluded Baylini and Internationaldebut

- 8 of the last 10 were distance winners

Which does for the likely favourite Premio Loco along with Scintillo, Internationaldebut (again) and Docofthebay.

- Age plays no great part in the trends for this race as 4, 5 and 6yo's along with a single 7yo have all won in the last decade.

The four we have left are Kandidate, Mahadee, Re Barolo and Suits Me. Three of these ran in the Winter Derby Trial last time out where Re Barolo came out on top from Suits Me and Kandidate in 4th. Suits me has a 3lb pull for a neck beating which should in theory give him every chance of reversing the form BUT all 9 Winter Derby Trial runners up have been beaten and only two were placed giving him a lot of history to defy.

Interestingly 8 of the last 10 winners were drawn 7 or lower and when coupled with the fact that 9 of the last 10 winners were either course winners or making their track debut I think Re Barolo becomes a strong trends pick.

4 of the 9 Winter Derby Trial winners have gone on to land this race and I think Re Barolo can become the 5th with Mahadee best of the outsiders.

Selection: Re Barolo

Over to Newbury for a jumps race which looks to be suffering from its proximity to both Cheltenham and Aintree as it sees a relatively small field contest this average looking handicap.

Mares NH Novices Handicap Hurdle Final

- All of the last 10 winners were winning a handicap for the first time

Luccombe Bay and Pure Genius have both already won a handicap and are crossed off the list

- 9 of the last 10 winners were rated 122 or less
-9 of the last 10 winners carried 11-03 or less

Thus eliminating only Caroles Legacy.

- 7 of the last 10 winners had run at least 4 times over hurdles

Aussie Deal, Charmaine Wood, Dancingwithbubbles, Double Hit, Ellen Tilley, Laureate Des Loges and Ravello Bay are removed from the list of possibles

- 7 of the last 10 winners had won a race in their last three starts

Easter Legend and Rothres are the only two who haven't been previously excluded to fail here

- 7 of the last 10 had won a novice hurdle over 2m 3 1/2f+

Cool Friend is a Non Runner but would have failed on this trend anyway

Which leaves us with just one horse. She represents last years winning trainer and like 7 of the last 10 winners is a 6yo.

Selection: Argento Luna

Our old friend Judge'N jury runs in the 2.05 and after last years rapid rise through the sprinting ranks starts off in this competitive looking Listed Sprint.

He's won on the Lingfield AW surface and 5f suits him well. I'll be backing him to resume winning ways and start this season as he means to go on.

Selection: Judge'N Jury

And finally the last horse I'll be backing today is Ping Pong Sivola who ran so well behind our big winner Something Wells last week at Cheltenham. If she turns up in anywhere near the same form and that run hasn't taken too much out of her then she should win this average looking Listed Novices Chase with the minimum of fuss.

Selection: Ping Pong Sivola

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Today is the last chance for the Bonus Ball guesses to be registered. A number 1-49 before 7.30pm tonight to;

quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk

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The Grand National Trends Guide is available now including our two ante-post selections which were both available at 50/1. One of the two has seen some support and is now a best priced 40/1.

To get your copy of this 16 page fact packed guide and pre-order your full Aintree Guide simply click below....

2009 Aintree Festival Trends Guide

If you were with us for Cheltenham then you can simply go to the Members Area to purchase your copy at http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/member.php

Good luck,
Gavin.

Under the weather.....

I'm not feeling too good today dear readers so my post today will be short and to the point. Hopefully whatever it is that has entered my system decides to vacate before tomorrow and I'll be back then with a more thorough look at the present Racing Scene....


The Real McCoy

For those of you who like to back Trainer/Jockey combinations at certain tracks that show a good % win and a level stakes profit, today sees Tony McCoy and Nicky Henderson team up with Mr Gardner in the 2.40 Newbury.

So far this season, they have had 7 winners from 7 runners at Newbury and are showing a level stakes profit of £24.35. And the best part, the price of Mr Gardner is 9/1!!

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Three (free) Plugs

1) The nag-nag-nag Aintree Trends Publication will be available on 30th March but we have a Special Grand National Preview available right now and we're currently running an early bird offer where you can buy them both for £11.95...........

Read all about it here >>> 2009 Aintree Festival Trends Guide

2) Matts still running his FREE racing guide giveaway with the promise of more FREE stuff to come. Don't let the video footage put you off and grab these while you can....

Get the free stuff here >>> MATTS GREAT FREE RACING GIVEAWAY

3) The Bonus Ball prizepool up for grabs this month is over £50. This is FREE cash that will go to you the readers. There is no catch you simply have to guess what the Bonus Ball will be in tomorrows National Lottery Draw.

Send your number (1-49) to quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk

All correct guesses will share the cash.

Good luck,
Gavin.

The Grand National.....

is less than 3 weeks away and big race fever has returned to Nag HQ.

We've hardly had time to draw breath after the excitement of last weeks Cheltenham Festival before launching ourselves into the Aintree Festival. We're currently in the process of compiling the second of our Trends Guides and it will be available on Monday 30th March.

However, we have also done a Special 16 Page Preview of the Grand National and this will be available from noon today.

We have used the same format, that served us so well at Cheltenham, to compile all the trends, stats, facts and figures for this great race and then added a few extra features to make sure this is the best Grand National Guide available.

Don't make the mistake of thinking the Grand National is a lottery, this race is one of the best trends races run all year, flat or jumps! The same type of horse with the same type of profile wins this race year after year. If proof were needed, Matt has successfully picked the last two Grand National winners on this blog using these same stats and trends.

We'll be doing our very best to make it a hat-trick and to start the ball rolling we have included our ante-post recommendations based purely on the trends and the information available to us right now. Both horses are currently available at 50/1.

And to celebrate our Cheltenham success we're offering readers the chance to purchase the Grand National Preview and pre-order the Full Aintre Guide (due out 30th March) for the early bird price of just £11.95.

This price includes the Grand National Preview, The full Aintree Guide, access to the Members Area, all the daily updates, latest news, Placepot Perms and any ante-post recommendations given out by us.

(This is a limited time offer only.)

If you missed out on our strongly fancied 33/1 tip Something Wells at Cheltenham, make sure you're with us for Aintree!

You can click below to read all about it.....

2009 Aintree Festival Trends Guide

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It was a great Cheltenham for me and it's hard to find too many bad things to say about it so my 5 worst (punting) memories are all betting related....

5) Mirage Dore getting beaten in the Coral Cup. Difficult to say if he would have won the race with a professional jockey on board but when you've done your money it's always good to have someone / something else to blame.

4) Walkon in the Triumph Hurdle. I fancied him strongly and I thought he had the race in the bag coming down to the last but he just wasn't quite good enough. This time I didn't have anyone / anything else to blame other than myself for picking the wrong horse but that didn't stop me swearing and pouting.

3) L' Ami in the Cross Country race was another of my strong fancies and I went against my better judgement and Trends Ratings in backing him. More fool me for a) backing a horse in such a stupid race b) going against all the trends and c) not backing the horse that was blatantly the better value. That's me finished for good in those pointless, ridiculous and downright annoying Cross Country Races. One suggestion to the Cheltenham Executives for next year, Scrap this race and just give the trophy to Enda Bolger.

2) Maljimar. I was hoping for a good priced winner on the first day to get our Cheltenham Guide off to a flyer and jumping the last I felt sure we had done it. Unfortunately, Tony McCoy had different ideas and decided to ride the best race of his Cheltenham career to get Witchita Linesman up on the line. Cue lots of swearing and pouting in the Priestley household.

1) Mamlook. He was one of my strongest fancies all week and having got a few pounds in my pocket thanks to Something Wells I went a bit overboard with him. Everything was looking good though as they turned for home only for disaster to strike as the jockey tried to squeeze through a very narrow gap and cause the horse to stumble very badly and nearly fall over (a fact that Simon Holt completely failed to pick up on in his commentary). He got it back into contention but the damage was done and he eventually finished well beaten. Compensation awaits at Aintree (or maybe the Chester Cup.....or the Swinton hurdle.....or the Royal Ascot Handicap.... or the Cesarewitch....or Cheltenham 2010..or...)

I can't wait for next year!

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Matt's still giving away his FREE AW Effects of the Draw Guide and is now promising to give 3 more FREEBIES away in the next seven days (worth over £147.)

If you haven't yet checked it out yet then simply click below to be transported to FREEBIE heaven

MATTS GREAT FREE RACING GIVEAWAY

Good Luck,
Gavin.

P.S. Don't forget. 12 Noon today sees the launch of our 2009 Grand National Preview.

Lists, exciting news and Freebies.....

I never got round to posting my Top 5 Jockeys over the weekend but for the thousands of you who emailed (well, 1 of you) asking who they were. Here they are..

MY 5 FAVOURITE JOCKEYS

5) Michael Roberts - The South African jockey who rode in this country in the 90's was Champion Jockey in 1992 and I remember backing more winners that year than any other in my punting life. His association with the great Mtoto seals his place in my top 5.

4) David Harrison - Not the most high profile in the list but I followed his career from apprentice (Champion apprentice 1992) to fully fledged jockey and I had many a good pay day backing him on outsiders. It was a great shame when riding in Hong Kong in 2001 he suffered a horrific career ending injury.

3) Tony McCoy - No jockey list would be complete without the great Tony McCoy and as every punter knows, he never gives up. He was originally number 2 but after that amazing ride on Witchita Linesman at Cheltenham last week he's been demoted to 3. That'll teach him to spoil my gamble on Maljimar! Ha!

2) Steve Cauthen - The Kentucky Kid is a legend and the best rider of front runners the world has ever seen. His ride on Reference Point in the 1987 Derby is one that sticks in my mind as I had an even £100 on him that day as a naive 19-y-o betting shop manager with dreams of being a professional punter! Riding for the then all conquering Henry Cecil yard it was a perfect partnership that provided this then wet-behind-the-ears punter with plenty of winners.

1) Keiran Fallon - Like most geniuses he has his flaws but when he's riding at his best, in my opinion there's no one better. I wouldn't want any other jockey on my horse in a close finish. Roll on September when he rejoins the riding ranks.

Please feel free to leave your Top 5 in the comments box at the end of the Post. I'm sure there won't be too many people agreeing with my top 5.


Now the dust has settled on the Cheltenham Festival I bring you my Top 5 Memories of this years meeting. (Tomorrow I'll do my worst 5)

5) Champion Hurdle - My horses were well beaten but that didn't matter as this has to be one of the most exciting finishes to the Champion in many a year. Punjabi wouldn't have been on too many peoples list after his run last time out but he showed true guts to prevail here from two very exciting 5-y-o's.

4) Quevega - Running in one of the less established races all the talk in the run up had been about Whiteoaks defection to the Champion Hurdle but the way Quevega stormed up the hill for a 13 length win her participation in this race would have made no difference to the result. A truly awesome display.

3) Kauto Star - Devastating display from one of the great chasers of all time. The first horse to ever reclaim his Gold Cup crown and thoroughly deserved too. Denman's brave run in second put the icing on the cake for all true lovers of our great sport. (Trust me to back the only Nicholls runner in the race who didn't run well though!)

2) American Trilogy - It should still be the last race on the day and I didn't back the winner but what a performance to win like that in a Cheltenham handicap hurdle. After studying all morning and seeing my horse run no race at all it was particularly galling to see the missus jumping up and down having had £5 ew on him. The reason she backed him? Because it's an Elvis song!! I ask you, what's the point? I did at least get lunch bought for me which makes him number 2 in the list.

1) Something Wells - Absolutely no doubt in my, or a lot of other peoples, eyes that the best result of the week was this winner of the Festival Plate. It really is great when it all comes together like it did here. We made it our strongest fancy for the handicaps and tipped it up ante-post a week before the race and jumping two out I was always confident he would overhaul his stable companion. I've not shouted a horse home like that since Oath won the Derby. Happy Days!.....

Which brings me on nicely to my Aintree Festival Trends Guide.

After the great success of the Cheltenham version and due to popular demand I will be bringing out an Aintree Guide on the 30th March. It's a bit more difficult to get the information together as the entries have yet to be made for the majority of the races but it will all be ready and in the same format as before when it goes on sale.

BUT

We have been able to compile the Grand National Race in a special 18 page preview and we will be unveiling this publication tomorrow at 12 Noon. This will include an incredibly indepth look at all the trends, past results, stats, facts, figures, horse analysis, key trials and of course the all important Exclusive Nag ratings.

We will also include our Ante-Post recommendations.

Full details will be in tomorrows post.


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MATT'S GREAT FREE HORSE-RACE GIVEAWAY

You've probably already seen Matt's email telling everyone of his new Free Giveaway and I'm guessing most of you have probably already taken advantage of his generous offer.

But for those of you who haven't yet grabbed this freebie then be quick because I'm not sure how long he's going to keep it available for.

There's absolutely no catch, you don't even need to enter an email address and as I said it's totally FREE!

You don't even have to watch the video Matt has put on the site (which is probably a good thing if you've just eaten!).

For those of you with stronger stomachs the Video should provide a few minutes of informative viewing.

Simply click below to visit his site and download this excellent FREE guide now. BUT BE QUICK!

Matt's great FREE giveaway is here....

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BONUS BALL BET

Don't forget if you haven't already sent your number in that there's over £50 up for grabs in this month's Prizepool.

The draw is this Saturday and all you need to do is send a number 1-49 to

quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk.

Match your number with the Lottery main draw Bonus Ball and you win/share the cash.

It's FREE with no catch!

Good Luck,
Gavin.

Top tipster....

CHELTENHAM TIPSTER COMPETITION

Sorry for the delay in publishing the result but with over 200 entries spread over 4 days it's taken me a while to work out the finishing positions. The winner was as expected though, as I had highlighted his excellent picking in Fridays post. Take a bow dingdongdave....

£50 First Prize: dingdongdave +£495 (£10 Something Wells, £5 Punjabi, £10 Zaynar, £10 Can't Buy Time & £15 Kempes)

£20 Second Prize: Toffeemanmatt +£340
Book Third Prize: Larry O'D +£290
Book Fourth Prize: Slider99 +£260

The highest single winning bet was shared between dingdongdave & toffeemanmatt who both win an Aintree Festival Trends Guide.

Honourable mentions also go out to Bullboy (3 winners and a 14/1 second), mr moody's garden (3 winners), Steve's Stable (2 winners and a 12/1 second), billp (2 winners) and elected (12/1 winner).

Thanks to everyone who entered and congratulations to all our winners. Emails will be sent out later to sort out your prizes.

If I get chance, I'll have a look at doing it all over again for Aintree.

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Bonus Ball Prizepool

The draw is this Saturday so if you haven't got your entry in yet you better get emailing.

After a rather hit and miss Cheltenham and thanks mainly to Paul Nicholls the Prizepool is the biggest yet. Up for grabs in this weeks draw is £51.36

Same as usual, a number 1-49 to quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk before 7.30pm Saturday. Match your guess with the Bonus Ball number in the Main Lottery Draw and you win or share all of the cash!

Don't forget it's FREE to enter and everyone is welcome.

This is your FREE chance to win £50 for just one email.

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Aintree Festival Trends Guide

Hot on the heels of the Cheltenham Festival is Aintree with just 3 weeks between the two great meetings this year. Work is in progress to bring you exactly the same level of research and stats for an Aintree Trends Guide as we managed for Cheltenham.

Hopefully, the full Aintree version will go on sale Monday March 30th at 12 noon but for those of you who can't wait that long we will be bringing out a special separate Grand National Guide that will be available from this Thursday.

More news to follow.....

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A little later than promised, but I think it's worth the wait, is the Friday Fun. This had me chuckling over my Rice Krispies yesterday morning and it should go some way to lifting those Monday morning blues.

Taken from yesterday's Sunday Mirror here are some genuine and slightly wrong answers given in various TV and Radio Quiz Shows....

Phil Wood (BBC Radio Manchester): What's 11 squared?
Contestant: I don't know.
Phil Wood: I'll give you a clue. It's two ones with a two in the middle.
Contestant: Is it FIVE?

Richard Madeley (Richard and Judy): On which street did Sherlock Holmes live?
Contestant: ....er
RM: He makes bread.
Contestant:.....er
RM: He makes cakes.
Contestant: Kipling Street?

Alex Trelinski (Late Show, BBC Midlands): What's the capital of Italy?
Contestant: France?
Alex: France is another country. Try again.
Contestant: Oh, erm, Benidorm?
Alex: Wrong, sorry. Let's try another question. In which country is the Parthenon?
Contestant: Sorry, I don't know.
Alex: Just guess a country.
Contestant: Paris?

GWR FM DJ: What happened in Dallas on November 22nd 1963?
Contestant: I don't know. I wasn't watching it then.

Chris Searle (BBC Radio Bristol): In which European country is Mount Etna?
Contestant: Japan
CS: I did say European country. I can let you have another go.
Contestant: Er...Mexico?

Bamber Gascoigne: What was Ghandi's first name?
Contestant: Goosey?

and my personal favourite..

James O'Brien, LBC: How many kings of England have been called Henry?
Contestant: Er, well, I know there was a Henry the Eighth...er,er, three?

Good luck,
Gavin.

Midlands Grand National Trends

Midlands Grand National

The meeting was abandoned in 2001 & 2004 so I've taken the trends back 10 runnings to 1997

- 7-9yo's have won the last 10 runnings of this race

So we can say pension off the OAP's King Harald, The Dark Lord, Naunton Brook & Hold the Pin.

- 9 of the last 10 winners had run less than 15 times over fences

Say goodbye to the too experienced Always Waining (18), Gidam Gidam (16), Mon Mome (23), Sea Diva (16) and Operation Houdini (17).

- 9 of the last 10 winners had won at 3 miles+ over fences

That's Officer De Reserve & Badger Law out of the running.

- 9 of the last 10 winners had ran last time out in a handicap chase at 3m+

Companero ran in a novice chase last time out and is thus ruled out.

- The last 10 winners had all run within the last 2 months.
- 8 of the last 10 winners carried 10-10 or less and were rated 116-132

Which means we can rule out Flintoff

Other factors to consider are that all 10 winners returned at 16/1 or less, 8 of the 10 finished in the top 3 last time out and 9 of the last 10 had already won that season.

Beat the Boys beats the dust.

Which leaves a shortlist of 3; Russian Trigger, Kilcrea Asla, & Appleaday

It's difficult to split the three but my preference would be for Kilcrea Asla who has the added assistance of Tony McCoy in the saddle.

Selection: Kilcrea Asla (1pt win)

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I'm in a rush today as I've got to take my son and his friend 10 pin bowling but I'll be back tomorrow with results of the Tipping Competition and the total Prizepool for the Bonus Ball Bet.

Good luck,

Gavin.

The A Team....

Durr, dah dah durr, durr dah durr.....

As Hannibal always used to say just as he's lighting up a big fat cigar... 'I love it when a plan comes together'

And yesterday after 6 weeks of research and hard work the plan certainly came together!

In my regular Festival Trends update for Thursday I wrote to all members...

'We here at Nag3 HQ strongly fancy Something Wells today in the 4.00. Ladbrokes go 33/1 about the Venetia Williams trained 8-y-o and he is recommended as our best handicap each way bet of the meeting.'

Just as I had promised in my sales page, 'No vague race analysis naming lots of horses that might win. Just a clear and concise prediction using extensive data analysis that leaves you in no doubt as to our race fancies.'

I'd like to thank the scores of people who have emailed in following his success yesterday and I'm so glad that so many of you made some decent money.

Come on Walkon!

If you want to buy the Full Guide and get everything for the final day's racing then I have made it available for just £4.95 and you can buy it here.

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Trainer apologies:

It seems I may have been a bit hard on Mrs Harrington yesterday when I criticised her for not running Horner Woods in the Jewson Novices. It transpires the horse actually didn't make the cut for that particular race, which I think goes to show just how well he must have been handicapped. I doubt he'll get into a similar handicap off 10 stone for a long time now.

And sorry also to Paul Nicholls who proved me wrong yesterday but right at the start of the week by telling it as it is and recommending Chapoturgeon as his best bet of the day. Cue an 8/1 winner....

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CHELTENHAM TIPSTER COMPETITION

There are a few people leaving it to the last day to send in their horses so it's quite hard to tell who's in with a shout but there are loads of entries with Something Wells in and it'll need something quite special today to get above dingdongdave who followed up his £5 win Punjabi on Tuesday with £10 on Something Wells at 33/1. He has £10 on Zaynar as his last bet.

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Bonus Ball Bet

Paul Nicholls Best Bet: Kauto Star (Gold Cup)

Pricewise headline tip: Browns Baily (2.40)

Gavin's Tips: Walkon (Triumph Hurdle) & Mamlook (Pipe Hurdle)

It's no secret I strongly fancy these two and I don't think anyone who has bought my guide will mind be disclosing these picks as I gave the Triumph Hurdle out for free and Mamlook's race has no trends.

I'll do a £1 each way Lucky 15 on the 4.

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Due to the long celebrations last night I got up a bit late and haven't had time to sort out a Friday Fun or write my 5 top Jockeys. Sorry. I hope to bring them to you tomorrow unless Mamlook and Walkon both win in which case I'll be on the next flight to Vegas...

Good luck,
Gavin.

Bad jockeys and bad tipsters....

They say jockeys and trainers make the worst tipsters and who am I to disagree.

So to honour this well known maxim in today's post I give you- bad jockeys, dodgy trainer tips and have a moan about a well known top tipster.


First up and carrying on the theme of this weeks posts. Today I list My 5 Least Favourite Jockeys (my Top 5 will come tomorrow)...

5) Richard Dunwoody. I've never had a problem with Woodie before but then along come these toe-curlingly bad Paddy Power adverts being shown during CH4's racing coverage this week and it's all change. Richard Dunwoody on the back of a horse in some blokes kitchen eating a bowl of cornflakes! What's that all about? Oi, Richard. No!!!!!

4) Ryan Moore. Good jockey, miserable sod! At least Piggott did the miserable sod act with style and wit. Enough said.

3) Mick Kinane. I would imagine he would be in Matt's top 2 least favourite jockeys and probably number 1 as we have had many conversations over the years as to just how bad he has become. His one man mission to get all of Aiden O'Briens horses beat at the Breeders Cup meetings still leaves a bitter taste in the mouth. It's hard to highlight any one particular ride as there have been so many but the way he got Giant's Causeway beaten in the 2000 Classic still has me gnashing my teeth in anger. Grrrrrrrrrrr!

2) Willie Carson. He was never one of my favourite jockeys when riding but what with the Question of Sport appearances and now his BBC punditry he slips further down the list. His absence from the screens is the only up-side of the recent BBC racing cutbacks. And don't even get me started on that inane, forced, fake laugh.....

1) Richard Quinn. Regular readers will have already guessed that Quinn would be my Number 1 most loathed jockey. I still think he single-handedly brought the Cecil stable to it's knees as his style of riding just didn't suit their horses but the main problem with him is, basically the blokes an arse. He rode our horse a few years ago at Brighton (you may notice a theme here) and was rude, distant and I got the feeling that he felt it was beneath him to talk to an owner unless he came from Dubai. Plus, he gave the horse a terrible ride.


BONUS BALL BETS

Another bad day's tipping from the 'experts' left my solid each way horse as the only bet to contribute to the prizepool.

Tom Seagal of the top Racing Post tipping column, Pricewise, has really surprised me with his two headline tips so far this week. With the whole idea of the column being to seek out the value bets in a race it seems really strange to me that he should pick two horses who have already been well punted and therefore represent little or no value.

Recommending Whiteoak at the 50/1 or 66/1 that was freely available in the run up to the Champion Hurdle could be argued as highlighting the value but suggesting her at 18/1 surely goes against the principles of the column. Any value that had been available was long gone.

The same happened yesterday when he tipped The Polomoche, okay I admit I did fancy him too but I had backed him ante-post at 14's which I thought was a decent price. Suggesting a horse at 8/1 for such a competitive handicap is value was stretching it a bit given that his chances were based solely on his reputation and a decent morning workout.

Just because every horse he tips is punted shorter than the highlighted price that doesn't make it value.

Let's hope he reverts to the tried and trusted way of selecting his horses and today he can find a horse that is genuinely overpriced.

Pricewise Headline Tip: Fingeronthepulse (4.00)

Paul Nicholls Most Fancied runner: Chapoturgeon (1.30)

After yesterday's poor run from his apparently well fancied The Nightingale let's hope he has more luck with this one.

Gary's Tip: Maucaillou (2.05)

My brother's been banging on about this one for so long I even had a dream about the horse the other night. Just to shut him up and hopefully get the horse out of my mind I'll put him in the BBB today. Heaven help me if it wins......

Same as yesterday £1ew Singles and a £1ew Patent.

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Festival Trends Guide

Just a quick recap of yesterday's highs and lows.

We got the Placepot up again (£753 dividend!), Cooldine was given as an ante-post horse two weeks ago, Massini's Maguire was a strongly fancied each way bet and Mirage Dore ran a good second at 14-1 when top rated.

Mikael D'haguenet was 2nd top rated but Coe and Amore Mio were both very disappointing.

Most frustrating run of the day was that of Horner Woods who ran a blinder at 66/1 to finish 2nd in the RSA Chase. We had marked this out as a decent 25/1 shot for the Jewson Novices Handicap, being run today, and off just 10 stone we're left to wonder how far he would have won that race off such a low weight.

It's a difficult day today with 4 tough handicaps but if you still want to buy the guide (for Thursday & Friday) and get the Placepot Perms it's now available for just £7.95. Get it here.


Good Luck,
Gavin.

Cheltenham. Day 2....

Following on from yesterday's lists

The Top 5 racecourses (I have attended)

1) Sandown. Great course, great viewing and I'm usually quite lucky there.
2) Goodwood. Beautiful location and all the facilities are close together. When the weathers good this really is a Glorious racecourse
3) Ascot. I've not been since they re-vamped it but I have a lot of good memories from the Royal Ascot meetings I have attended.
4) Wincanton. A lovely course with excellent viewing and it attracts quite a few big names and stages some top class racing. I got interviewed on CH4 by John McCririck there once.
5) Cheltenham. If you avoid the festival and go to a 'run of the mill' meeting you get to enjoy 1st class facilities without the hassle and the crowds.

And my 5 Least Favourite Racecourses

5) Exeter. Stuck on top of Haldon Hill it gets very windy and very cold. The runners disappear out of sight as they enter a dip down the far side and the course is so big a normal pair of binoculars is no good, you need the Hubble Space Telescope to pick out your colours!
4) Newbury. For me the worst Grade 1 track in the country. You'd find more atmosphere on the moon and for me, picking winners there seems next to impossible.
3) Southwell. I love the all weather but this track is bad and watching poor racing while freezing to death didn't leave me wanting more.
2)Taunton. Been to the racecourse 3 times in my life and on two occasions it's been called off 1/2 hour before the first race. The other time I did my Cheltenham money on the Monday before the Festival started. I'm never going back.
1) Brighton. The worst laid out racecourse ever. It stages poor racing and if Richard Quinn can be leading jockey here it says it all. After 10 minutes in this dump you end up praying for the inevitable sea mist to descend so they call the meeting off and you can go home.

TIPSTER COMPETITION

It's early days and I'm still sifting through well over 200 entries so if you did well yesterday and you're not included below don't panic, I just haven't got to your entry yet.

Those entries I have read and worthy of a mention are;

Elected who had £15 on Go Native
billp who had £10 on both Forpadydeplasterer & Garde Champetre
and dingdongdave who had £5 on Punjabi

Entries will be accepted up until the first race on Friday.

BONUS BALL BETS

What a disaster yesterday was with the experts horses all finishing well beaten. Let's hope for more luck today.

Pricewise Headline Tip: The Polomoche (4.00 Cheltenham)

I'm very keen on this one too and he looks to have been laid out for this race since running over an inadequate 2 miles at the start of the season. He always seems to run well after a break and he should run a good race.

Paul Nicholls Column: The Nightingale (Ballymore Novices Hurdle)

Master Minded is his headline horse but even my missus knows this one should win and at the price he won't add much to our prizepool. Nicholls doesn't seem particularly confident about any of his other runners except The Nightingale and so this one will carry the cash.

Gavin's Nap: Massini's Maguire (RSA Chase)

Cheltenham seems to bring out the best in him and he has the profile of previous RSA winners. He's run some good races in defeat this season and I think it will be hard to keep him out of the frame today.

£1 ew singles + £1ew Patent will be today's bet.

TRENDS GUIDE

Yesterday we had two Top Rated winners and had the Tricast in the correct order for the 4.00. Go Native was 2nd top rated and Our Placepot perm was successful to 16 units. If the unlucky Maljimar had held on in the 2.40 we would have been celebrating a lovely 14/1 winner.
All in all, not a bad start but very close to being a great start!

Let's hope for better fortune today.

The Guide for the last three days is sill available here.

Good luck,
Gavin.

Top 5 races and 4 for today....

In last weeks post I listed my top 5 race meetings of the year which had a few of you emailing in to give a different opinion. So to spark some more debate here are a few more Top and Bottom 5's. More tomorrow....

My Top 5 Favourite Cheltenham Races

1) Cheltenham Gold Cup - An obvious choice but my number 1 because I have had more winners of this race than any other at the Festival and I backed my only 200/1 winner when Nortons Coin won it.

2) Coral Cup - I love a big field handicap and this one has it all. Classy runners, perfect distance, great finishes and run over hurdles. Oh, and I had one of my biggest bets ever on Monkerhostin when he won in 2004.

3) Champion Hurdle - The last few years have been a bit disappointing but memories of Istabraaq and See You Then winning multiple Champion Hurdle make this a race to savour. Not had too much luck betting in this race though.

4) Fred Winter Novices Handicap - It's only been going 4 years but this is fast becoming one of the best races for me at the Festival as I've had 3 of the 4 winners. It gives a new opportunity for those horses not quite good enough to run in the Triumph and as it's run as a handicap it makes for a cracking race too.

5) Supreme Novices Hurdle - The first race of the Festival and the cheer when the tapes go up still sends a tingle up the spine. Can't wait.....

And to balance the good with the bad, my 5 Least Favourite races.

5) Grand Annual - It would have been the County Hurdle but as they've switched the races around this year this one is in the list purely because it's the last race and brings an end to the Festival. Unless I've done my money in which case I'll be glad Cheltenham's over for the year and this will then be promoted to my favourite race.

4) Cross Country Chase - The horses and riders must get dizzy as they go around and around over varying obstacles in a pointless race that has no place in such an otherwise great race meeting. Unless L'Ami wins this year in which case this will then be promoted to my favourite race.

3) Bumper - Championship flat races are for Royal Ascot! Watching 20 odd chasers run 2 miles without any fences is not my idea of a great spectacle. And when the same trainer wins nearly every year what's the point?

Joint 1st) 4m NH Chase / Foxhunter - There's only one thing worse than watching 20 odd chasers run over 2 miles without any fences and that's watching 20 odd chasers run over 3-4 miles with amateur jockeys on their backs. Half don't finish and the other half are strung out so far around Cheltenham it's a wonder no horse has ever been lapped.

Feel free to leave a comment at the end of this post with any Top 5 you might have (keep it clean please!)

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Bonus Ball Bet

Today's attempt to get some cash in the kitty will see me place the following bets;

Pricewise headline tip: Whiteoak (Champion Hurdle)

It's seems a bit strange to me that he is tipping up this horse as the value must surely have gone by now. Available at 50/1 just 2 weeks ago it has been heavily supported since and for a column that usually inspires a gamble it just strikes me as weird that he now tips a horse at the bottom end of it's price. Still, the man is in top form and it'll probably shorten even further now....

We'll have £2.50 ew on it and I'll take the best price I can get.

Paul Nicholls Headline Horse: Tatenen (The Arkle)

The Champion trainer writes a column in the Racing Post each Saturday and is also giving his thoughts for the 4 days of the Festival. It's essential reading for anyone backing his horses as he is unusually honest for such a high profile trainer and though he doesn't always get it right he can be relied on to tell it as it is. He gives both Tatenen and Celestial Halo a good write up for today's feature races but believes Tatenen is his best chance of a winner. I have to agree with him and I also think, like Mr Nicholls, that the biggest danger is his other runner I'msingingtheblues.

So the bet will be £5 win Tatenen and a £1 Reversed Forecast with I'msingingtheblues

Matt Williams Nap: Cousin Vinny (Supreme Novices Hurdle)

I've mentioned before how highly I rate this Racing Post tipster and it was interesting to see him put this one up as his bet of the day. There are a lot of negative vibes surrounding this Irish raider and it wouldn't be in my top 5 horses to back today but the man knows his stuff and I'm happy to go along with him for the purposes of the BBB Prizepool and will have £5 win on him.

Gavin's bet of the Day: L'Ami (Cross Country Race)

L'ami is another horse that Matt Williams has tipped in his column and on this one I do agree with him. This former top class chaser hadn't won since January 2005 before coming back to some sort of form and taking the Hogan Memorial Chase at Punchestown this February. With the last 3 winners of the Cheltenham Cross Country Chase all winning the Hogan beforehand he'll do for me and it's another £5 win bet on this one.

To round things up to a £25 outlay I'll do a 10p ew Lucky 15 on the Four and hope for the best.

Whatever horses you decide to back today, the very best of luck to all of you!
Bring it on,
Gavin.

P.S. Don't forget your horses for the Tipster Competition. Lists to cheltenham@nag-nag-nag.co.uk (preferably before your first selection runs!)

A quick reminder....

It's less than 24 hours to go until the greatest NH meeting in the world gets underway and, personally, I can't wait.

But before I get back to my form and Placepot studies there are just a few quick reminders about the next few days that I'd like to mention.....

Cheltenham Tipster Competition

For those of you who have registered for the tipster competition, your selections can now be sent in.

Simply pick your 3-6 Cheltenham horses (plus the race name) and include your stakes in multiples of £5 up to a maximum of £50.

Send them with your nickname to cheltenham@nag-nag-nag.co.uk anytime up to the 1st race Friday (but of course before the first race any selection runs!)

This will be my entry;

£20 Mamlook (Martin Pipe conditional jockeys hurdle)
£20 Walkon (Triumph Hurdle)
£10 Vinmix de Bessy (Grand Annual)

And remember it's FREE with £50 cash up for grabs.

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Getting out stakes!

The third horse from my competition selections is a horse I was planning to unveil on Friday as the ultimate get out horse. Unfortunately, it seems I'm not the only one who quite fancies his chances as he was tipped up in today's Racing Post supplement and this probably means he will now come in for some support.

Vinmix de Bessy runs in the Grand Annual, which this year is run as the final race of the meeting, and I really fancy his chances of returning to form. He was well fancied for last years Grand Annual after an easy win at Sandown but was forced to miss the race after an injury. Two quiet runs this season without his usual cheekpieces looks to have him set up nicely for this race and a re-application of the head gear will hopefully transform the horse back to his old self.
His shrewd trainer Gary Moore knows a thing or two about setting up a gamble and this one certainly looks to have been laid out for the race. A lot can happen at Cheltenham and winning any race is not easy but at 14/1 he will be my get-out-of-jail horse should I require one.

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BONUS BALL BET

I will be placing 5 bets over the next 4 days and all winnings will be added to the Prizepool fund. The first of the 5 wagers will be a £1 EW Patent on my three selections for the tipster competition (as above). The other 4 will be given out in the morning over the next 4 days.

If you want to be in with a chance of winning a share of the Prizepool then simply send a number 1-49 to

quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk

and if your guess matches the Bonus Ball number drawn out in the National Lottery Main draw on Saturday 21st March you win.

It's FREE and there's no catch. Everyone who guesses correctly shares the pot.

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Finally, one last plug for my Cheltenham Trends Guide which is still available and can be downloaded immediately after payment.

It's 102 pages packed with stats, trends, analysis, ratings and has 26 horses that fit the closest the profiles of previous winners.

Get it here......Cheltenham Festival Trends Guide

Unfortunately it's not free BUT all readers can get a 20% discount by simply using the code A02DF in the Coupon Discount Box.

Good luck,
Gavin.

4 days to go....

Cheltenham Tipster Competition

Entries are flooding in for the FREE to enter tipping competition announced in the previous post and anyone wishing to take part, and hasn't yet done so, has until midnight on Sunday to register.

You can read all about it by scrolling down to the last post or simply register by sending a nickname to cheltenham@nag-nag-nag.co.uk

Please note: Registering an interest leaves you under no obligation to take part.

It seems I may have put too many dashes in the email address originally and a couple of you reported that your emails were bouncing back. This problem was rectified quite quickly and all is working fine now.

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Sandown Imperial Cup

The race has a new sponsor this year but Paddy Power have kept the Bonus Scheme going that sees any horse winning the Imperial Cup and a race at Cheltenham win £75,000. It's been well documented that the Pipe stable like to have a go at the Bonus and they always have a horse ready for the challenge. David Pipe has won the last two runnings of the Imperial Cup, carrying on where his dad left off, and the stable has now won this race 6 times since 1998.

It's very tough for any horse to win two big races in less than a week but the Pipes have managed it twice from those 6 runners. (Gaspara 2007 and Blowing Wind 1998). No other trainer in the last 12 years has managed to win the Bonus.

But before we can have a look at the chances of any horse winning the Bonus we need to try and find the winner of the Imperial Cup so let's have a look at some of the trends....

- 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 4 - 7

This seems to exclude Tender Falcon and Overstrand

- 9 of the last 12 winners were rated between 114 and 129 with the other 3 all trained by the Pipes (rated 135, 136 & 138)

- 9 of the last 12 winners carried less than 11 stone with the other three all being Pipe horses.

This k-o's 8 of the top 9 horses. Mr Thriller is left in as he is trained by David Pipe

- 9 of the last 12 winners finished in the top three last time out (6 won) with two of the three exceptions running un-placed in the Pierse Hurdle.

Cheerio to Dave's Dream, Prince Taime, Spear Thistle, Maluhi and Overstrand

- All of the last 12 winners had run less than 16 times over hurdles.

Meaning the too experienced European Dream is retired from the running

- No horse in the last 12 renewals of the race was having their seasonal debut

Which means we bid farewell to Mr Pipe's other runner Seven is my Number

- 7 of the last 9 winners were novices

Bye Bye to Stradbrook and Osolomio.

With both Irish winners of the past decade both having run in the Pierse Hurdle it seems Native Clan is not as classy as those two and is overlooked leaving 3

- Mr Thriller, Moves Goodenough and Oddshoes.

The last two named are 33/1 and 66/1 respectively and may offer each way value but with David Pipe's last two winners both being ex-French trained 4-y-o's who won a novice hurdle last time out, Mr Thriller seems to fit the same profile as those two. He does have a bit more weight to carry than they did but Pipe runners have been the only horses to carry over 11 stone in recent runnings and should he be able to get the hat-trick up for the stable.

Selection: Mr Thriller

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Cheltenham Festival Guide

There's only 4 days until the start of this years Festival and the excitement is mounting here at Nag Towers as I put the finishing touches to the Cheltenham Trends Guide.

All 26 races are now up-to-date and the exclusive Nag ratings have been completed for the Tuesday & Wednesday. These will be available for download this evening with Thursday and Friday's ready on Sunday.

Sunday will also see the unveiling of the 26 selections that the Nag3 Brains Trust consider to be the horses that most closely fit the trends profile of previous winners. It has taken us over 6 weeks to get to this stage after hours of researching and compiling the relevant data.

With over 100 pages of stats, trends, information and horse analysis included in the guide it really is great value at just £14.95.

I've had some wonderful feedback from some very happy readers and yesterday received an email from another racing website telling me....

'Your Cheltenham guide is fantastic. It's one of the best betting publications I've ever seen....'

It's not to late to get a copy for yourself and as a reader of the blog you can also have a 20% off loyalty discount. Simply use the code A02DF in the Coupon Discount Box.

You can read all about the guide at http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/

or go straight to the payment page at

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

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Friday Fun

Carrying on the Cheltenham theme and for those readers who haven't seen it, here is the At The Races video feature on a recent stable tour of Nicky Henderson's yard....



Good luck,
Gavin.

Free Tipster Competition....

After much thought, and therefore a little later than planned, I have great pleasure in announcing the details for the NagNagNag Free to Enter....

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL TIPPING COMPETITION

THE RULES

In an act of extreme generosity I'm giving everyone a 'virtual' £50 note. Unfortunately, you can only spend this money at Honest Gav's Nag3 Bookies and you can only bet on horses running at Cheltenham. All virtual money won will be used to determine the

2009 Nag3 Cheltenham Top Tipster

With this £50, you can back any horse you like in any race you like and you can put any amount you like on each horse (in multiples of £5 only!).

It's FREE to enter and the competition is open to everyone.

VERY IMPORTANT: If any of the following rules are broken your entry will be void.

- You cannot exceed £50 for the total stake

- All your horses must be runners at Cheltenham

- You must pick a minimum of 3 horses and no more than 6.

- All bets are win only.

- Singles Only. By that I mean no doubles, trebles, Lucky 15's etc. I'm not excluding married people! ;-)

- No lay bets. No each way. No Betfair odds. No taking an early price.

- Only one horse per race

- Only one entry per reader.

THE WINNER

The winner will be decided simply by calculating the stake you put on each horse at the starting price odds the horse wins at. Whoever wins the most money (or loses the least) is the winner.

e.g. If you put £10 on a 6/1 winner, £5 on a 2/1 winner and £35 on a loser your total is £85 (£70 + £15 + £0)

- Any non runners will count as your stake returned.

- Only the race nominated will count for that particular selection.

THE PRIZES
With the Racing Post not having sent all my books out yet I've had to raid the Nag3 piggy bank to provide the top prizes. If I receive any more books by Sunday I will alter and extend the list of prizes.

1ST PRIZE: £50 CASH
2ND PRIZE: £20 CASH
3RD PRIZE: Racing Book: 500 Greatest Gambles and Gamblers
4TH PRIZE: Racing Post Desk Calendar

HIGHEST WINNING SINGLE BET: Festival Trends Guide for Aintree

HOW TO ENTER

Send an email with your chosen nickname to

cheltenham@nag-nag-nag.co.uk

and an email will be sent back giving you details of when and how to send in your entry.

Registration will close at Midnight on Sunday. Any emails received after this time will not be counted.

It's FREE to enter and hopefully should be a bit of fun. Winners will be announced Sunday 15th March. I'll try and update as best I can during the Festival.

Oh, and of course my decision is final on all rulings.

Please feel free to enter any comments you have by clicking the 'comments' link at the bottom of this post.

Good luck,
Gavin.

Updates....

and time to tie up a few loose ends......


The Betting Machine Final Review

I still haven't come to a solid conclusion on this particular 'system' as it's very hard to criticise a product that has shown such durability and made a decent profit but something just doesn't feel right to me. Anyway, here are my thoughts...

The Good

We started with a Bank of £1000 and finished the 4 week trial at £1223. Not a bad figure at all.

In those 4 weeks we had 4 losing 6-horse cycle including two in the same day but each time it

suffered a setback it responded well and kept plugging away to rebuild the bank.

Whoever picks the horses (or whatever method is used) they certainly know there stuff. We've seen plenty of winners in the 4 week trial and some decent priced winners have been picked. Just backing the selections alone would probably have shown a profit.

It looks clean and tidy, it's very simple to use and nearly everything is done for you. The horses are picked and available in the morning (mostly!). The Betting Machine tells you how much to stake and it keeps your bank figures up to date. So far so good...

The Bad

It does require a large bank to start off with if you want to 'hit the ground running' and even then it's staking plan will have you tearing your hair out. Do you really think that you'd be happy placing a 55p bet when you're sitting on a £1000 bank? and if you are, would you really be happy getting a 14/1 winner and winning just £20 when you're sitting on a £1000 bank? I'm not so sure.

And if you start off with a much smaller bank I fear the stakes may get a bit too silly.

and The Ugly

The biggest drawback is the fact that this 'system' isn't really a method of picking horses, as they're selected for you, but rather a staking system that uses horse-racing to mathematically make money. Horse-racing is just the medium it uses for monetary gain, the horses themselves are irrelevant, it's only the odds that matter.

Fine you might say, and after all it's profitable betting we're looking for, but there's something not quite right about staking your bets according to how much you've already lost or what the current odds are. You'll find yourself caring less and less about the horses....

Verdict

I think basically this 'system' isn't for me and I doubt people who enjoy horse-racing will appreciate it either but for those of you looking for a cheap, fun betting product that does everything for you and has shown a profit in 4 weeks then you could do worse than the Betting Machine. There are much poorer systems than this one available on the market.

Score: 6/10 (based mainly on the fact that it showed a profit)

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Bonus Ball Bet

Another rather disappointing couple of selections from the Racing Post experts left Newsboy as the only one to add any money to our prizepool. It was only an 8/11 winner but it's better than nothing and the pot finished at £41.38

The seventh number out of the drum on Saturday night was 23 which was one of the more popular guesses and figured in our 7 ball perm for that draw (we managed 2 and the Bonus).

Congratulations to the 5 lucky winners this month who all get £8.25 and they are;

Rodney M
Ben A
John W
Andy B
Rose

Emails have been sent out and as soon as I have an address your cheques will be dispatched.

This month's will be slightly different as I will be placing bets on the 4 days of the Cheltenham Festival for the prizepool.
The Bonus Ball Draw will be for the Saturday 21st March.

So there is less than three weeks to get your guesses in. Same email address, same rules;

quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk

Best of luck!

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Tote Ten to Follow

I'd completely forgot about our TTTF entries, which isn't all that surprising seeing as our selections haven't performed particularly well, but the Racing Post ran a reminder last week regarding the bonus horses.

Unfortunately it didn't give me time to consult anyone about which horses to choose so I went ahead and picked them myself.

Our best entry lies 19688th in the competition with 232 points. I don't know how many entries there were but as we have 38967th (184 pts), 47233rd (159 pts) and two 52280th (137pts) joint positions it seems quite a few.

I added the following horses to these lists

1) Kasbah Bliss & Mamlook
2) I'msingingtheblues & L'ami
3) Kasbah Bliss & Voy Por Ustedes
4) Kasbah Bliss & Mamlook
5) Kasbah Bliss & Forpadydeplasterer

Obviously I have picked these with Cheltenham in mind and having looked through our previous selections I think we have a good chance of scoring some decent points. Our best performing list looks particularly promising;

Kauto Star
Master Minded
Big Bucks
Cooldine
Cousin Vinny
Tatenen
Alberta's Run
Katchit
Elusive Dream (injured)
and now also Kasbah Bliss and Mamlook.

I'd be disappointed if there wasn't a few winners in that little lot.

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Cheltenham Guide

The Festival Trends Guide is now fully updated for those of you who have purchased it and from 11am today I will be revealing 4 big priced horses that have caught our eye while carrying out the research for the handicaps.

They are 20/1, 25/1 and 33/1 twice at the moment and all have perfect trends profiles for their relevant races.

You can download the sheet from the Members Area.

It's not too late to get a copy of the guide and all the ante-post selections so far including those four for the handicaps. We'll also be looking at the Top Jockey and Trainer betting and revealing the Nag Ratings this Sunday.

With daily updates throughout the four days and Placepot Perms as well this has to be the best value guide of it's kind available anywhere. Just one payment of £14.95 gets you everything...

100 page trends analysis covering all 26 races
Regular updates
Ante Post picks
Speciality betting advice
Placepot Perms

and the latest news on trainer plans.

You can get it from here;

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/


But don't forget to use the Nag3 Blog Bonus Code to get your regular reader 20% discount.

Simply enter the code A02DF in the discount coupon box.

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Good luck,
Gavin.