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Friday, 30 January 2009

Choc-a-bloc....

It's a busy Saturday with lots to get through, so let's get started...

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Bonus Ball Bet.

First up is the £1 Lucky 15 Bonus Ball Bet which will be on the following 4 horses....

1.30 San Optimus Maximus can keep the Henderson bandwagon rolling.
2.05 San Celestial Halo will need to win this if he is to be taken seriously for the Champion Hurdle
2.35 San Araldur in my opinion is one of the best novice chasers seen out so far this season.
2.15 Lin Waterside at 10yo is getting on a bit but should be able to take this seller


I'm also going to do another full 6 from 7 perm on tonights National Lottery using the most popular 7 numbers received so far. As I said earlier in the month, if we somehow manage to get 5 numbers or more I will split the money equally with everyone who has registered. Any other winnings will be added to the prizepool. The 7 numbers we will be using are.....

07 / 09 / 12 / 17 / 23 / 27 / 28

The prizepool currently stands at £20.15 and if you haven't already registered simply email a number 1-49 to quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk before 7.30pm tonight.

It's FREE and you really do get an equal share of all the money, paid in cash (well a cheque but it's as good as).

Good luck to us all...

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Next up a couple of other fancies I have.....

3.00 Don. Clew Bay Cove
With a strong pace almost guaranteed this hold up horse running over his ideal trip may be the answer to a weak renewal of this valuable race.

1pt ew 9/1

3.45 San. Erics Charm
He loves Sandown, he loves soft going and he ran a great race in the Thyestes Chase last week. If that race hasn't taken too much out of the old-timer he may get Tony McCoy one step closer to the 3000 mark.

1pt 8/1


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The Trends for today........

3.10 Sandown. Heroes Handicap Hurdle

- The last 12 winners all made the top 5 last time out
- 11 of the 12 won at least one of their last three starts
- All 12 had won over hurdles from 2m4f-2m6f
- All 12 had won a Class 3 or higher handicap hurdle
- Paul Nicholls has won the last two runnings with well fancied favourites
- 9 of the last 10 winners carried 10-10 or less (Exception was topweight and class act Baracouda in 2004)

Winning ages: 4yo - 0 / 5yo - 2 / 6yo - 4 / 7yo - 3 / 8yo - 1 / 9yo - 2 / 10yo+ 0

Three seem to fit the bill for this race; Cruchain, Six Day War and Rathcor

Most likely stat winner: Cruchain 12/1
Statbuster: Ballydub

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A horse running from my List of Horses to watch out for......

War of the Roses 3.55 BUT running in a Grade 2 handicap he looks out of his depth and from out of the handicap he doesn't look a great bet today. (1/2pt EW)

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And due to popular demand the Daily Placepot which, from today, will be posted Mon-Sat.

1-2-8 / FAV-11 / 10-11 / 5 / 2-5 / 3-4-5-8 = 96 BETS

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Coming Next Week.....

System Review. It's been relaunced with a fancy new website and a different payment structure but the $64,000 question - Is it any better?

We'll find out in February as I put the Betting Machine through a thorough test and you can get all the selections here along with my thoughts. More on Monday.

Cheltenham Preview. I'll be taking a look at a few of the big races at Cheltenham and seeing if we can find a few Ante-Post wagers to get stuck into. Plus news on an exciting Nag-Nag-Nag Cheltenham Publication coming soon.

Placepot Betting. I'll be taking a look at the Placepot Bet in a series of features designed to help everyone from the complete Novice to the Betting Expert. I'm hoping there will be something for all.

Bonus Ball Bet. This months BBB will have been settled by Monday and I'll have all the winners and news on the next draw.

Poker Blog. Plus, I'm launching my new Poker Blog on Monday as I try again to qualify for the World Series of Poker. You can read all about my progress here: http://fourking-ace.blogspot.com/ and if you sign up using the Blue Sign-Up Box you'll be notified automatically whenever there is a new Post.

I'll be back Monday, so until then,
Good Luck,
Gavin.

 

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Go ahead, make my day......

It's hard to believe that this time last week I was sat in the airport waiting to board a plane with a fistful of dollars and high expectations of a successful weekends gambling. I was hoping for that big win of a million dollars, baby but in the end I would have settled for coming back with a few dollars more than I went with.

Given the way things have been recently I felt lucky I still had the shirt on my back when I touched down at Gatwick. I guess you've got to take your luck any which way you can.

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I've really been running the gauntlet with my selections recently and am certainly in the line of fire with you all at the moment. I'll be the first to admit they have been a true crime against tipping but this isn't a perfect world and everyone goes through a bad run some time and I'm sure things will come around eventually. I just hope I don't remain unforgiven.

Enough already! I hear you cry, so I'll move swiftly on....

Two for today and both on the all weather.

1.10 Lingfield Night Orbit
Produced late and fast out of the fog to deny us last time when collaring Star Choice. The form of the race looks solid and he is taken to follow up that win. Oh, and Matt has a part share in the horse.

8.50 Wolverhampton Rough Sketch
Sir Mark Prescott trains and this looks like a typical Prescott horse which is now stepped up in trip and a decent jockey taking over the reins. Just the type to run up a sequence.

As usual, do what you may with my choices...back them, lay them or ignore them. Just remember;

"You gotta ask yourself one question, Do I feel Lucky?......
Well do ya punk?"

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Friday Fun

No prizes for guessing this weeks classic movie clip. It's Dirty Harry, "Go ahead, make my day!"...



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As from Monday I'll be taking a look at a couple of systems and putting them through the usual rigorous Nag3 testing. I'll be testing them for the whole of February and hopefully we can sort out the Good, the Bad and the Ugly...... (that's the last one I promise).

Good luck,
Gavin.

 

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Wednesday, 28 January 2009

''It was the best of times,

...it was the worst of times.''

Wrote Charles Dickens in his classic book A Tale of Two Cities and although he was referring to London and Paris this just about summed my weekend away from Cardiff in the gambling capital of the world, Las Vegas.

I won't bore you with any details of my trip except to say that it was the best hotel, the best company, the best food and drink.....definitely the best of times

and all with plenty of luck

unfortunately though, this came in the worst kind you can get....bad luck!

Nevermind, it's always more fun losing your money in Vegas than it is in the local Betfred (plus the Budweiser is free).

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It's always good to get back home though and with Cheltenham just around the corner the countdown starts now.

For me that will include visits to Newbury and Wincanton next month to watch the 'Cheltenham trials' and if the missus allows me three weekends away racing, a trip to Kempton also. I've been catching up with the last few days Racing Posts and I'll be checking out the video of the Irish Champion Hurdle later on just to see if there are any Festival pointers lurking amongst the weekend action.

I'm hoping to bring out a Cheltenham Preview ebook around the beginning of March, which I'm very excited about, but I'll bring you more news of that nearer the time.

For now though it's back to the All Weather and today's tip. He runs in the 3.15 Lingfield and, as I said last time he ran, he's going to get one more chance. Star Choice is the selection and although he has an extra furlong to go today I'm hoping the bottom weight can get me back amongst the winners. It looks a very competitive race for the grade but Star Choice ran very well last time out and should confirm form with Drum Major.

Selection: Star Choice (1pt win)

Other horses I will be backing today are Siena Star (3.50) and Little Richard (8.20)

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My thanks to Gary for doing the Bonus Ball Bet on Saturday. He looked a bit unlucky with 2 placed including a well backed 3rd, a faller which looked certain to be placed and the obligatory 4th.

He did manage to return £7.70 though which makes the Prizepool a whopping £20.15.
This should now get you a decent pub lunch for 4 and with one more Saturday bet to go before the end-of-month draw I'm hoping I can pay for a few drinks or a bottle of wine to go with the food.

If you haven't entered yet there's still plenty of time.
Simply email a number (1-49) to quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk before 7.30pm Saturday and if your guess matches the Bonus Ball in this weeks Lottery draw you will share the Prizepool. Simple as that.

There are currently 295 entries, which is a record entry for any competition run on the Blog, but I'd really like to make it past the 300 mark. Also, there are some numbers (mainly in the 40's) that nobody has chosen making the possibility of either a rollover or a single winner.

Remember, it's FREE money. There really is no catch.

Good luck,
Gavin.

 

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Saturday, 24 January 2009

Bonus Ball Bet

While Gavin's in Vegas we'll try to boost the Bonus Ball Prizepool with these horses....

2.05 Chelt. Stan won recently over C & D with a couple of today's runners behind and its one of those that I make the selection for today's race. Despite his age (13) Too Forward has shown he retains his ability and has slipped down the h'cap to quite an attractive mark. He meets Stan on 13lb better terms for nearly 20l and with a slightly more positive ride he can get much closer.He is a C and D winner and twice won on heavy ground. Obvious dangers are Stan and Battlecry.

2.35 Chelt An interesting race which I think boils down to a 2 horse race between Halcon Genelardais and Star De Mohaison who are both in receipt of weight from all the other runners. I will take Star De Mohaison to come out on top and the former festival winner can get back to winning ways. Tidal Bay is an exciting runner and it will be very interesting to seen how he gets on over this much longer trip.

2.50 Donc. Listed as a Grade 2 hurdle, it's not the best race you will see but On Raglan Road has got potential to make up into a decent hurdler before the obvious career over fences. He is top rated in today's field and I feel he has a big future and he needs to win today to confirm this.


3.45 Chelt Punchestowns looks to have a solid chance but I like the way Fair Along runs round here. He is rated only 8lb behind Punchestowns but gets 4lb so he doesn't have a great deal to find. Lough Derg comes here in fine form after success here and then Ascot last weekend but on both occasions he had a very hard race.

3.25 Donc A small e/w bet on Irish Raptor at around 33/1 trained by out of form Twiston-Davies.The horse is capable of a big run and at these very attractive odds its worth taking a chance, Crozan could be another outsider to run well. I have a gut feeling this race will be won by a big outsider.

50pe/w Lucky 15

2.05C Too Forward
2.35C Star De Mohaison
2.50D On Raglan Road
3.45C Fair Along

£2.50 e/w Irish Raptor @33/1

Good luck,
Gary.

 

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Wednesday, 21 January 2009

Viva Las Vegas......

After yesterday's blowout and the past weeks less than inspired tipping I'll do you all a favour and keep my bets to myself until I get back from Vegas.

The way my luck's been lately the gambling capital of the world probably isn't the best place to be spending this weekend but I'd rather lose my money there than in the local Betfred. At least the Budweiser is free while you gamble. I should listen to the old saying 'when in a hole stop digging' but where's the fun in that?

No, I'd prefer to take my pocket full of $'s and listen to that wise old sage Matt, who is always banging on, 'After a bad run, expect a good run'.

Taking that advice I should be in for a really, really, really good run.....a 32 treble on the roulette would do for starters or a progressive win on the Megabucks would be just the ticket. I'll let you know how I get on.

If all else fails at least I'm still winning at the poker tables.

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As promised yesterday here are the trends for Saturday's big races.

2.05 Cheltenham Trophy Chase (9 years data, 2006 Abandoned)

- No winner took this on their seasonal debut
- All 9 had won a race between 2m - 2m 6f
- All 9 had won a Class 3 or higher race
- None of the 9 had run more than 15 times in chases
- Six 8yo's, two 9yo's and one 6yo won the last 9 runnings of this race
- 8 of the 9 finished in the top 4 last time out (the exception unseated rider)

Likeliest trends winner: Pablo Du Charmil
Anti-stat horse: Mister McGoldrick

2.35 Cheltenham Cotswold Chase (last 11 winners)

Not many stand out trends for this race and with this years renewal looking very competitive we could be in for another similar, shock, result to last year.

- 6 of the 11 had their last run in the King George
- 10 of the 11 finished in the top 2 on at least one of their last 2 runs (last years winner Knowhere being the exception)
- 10 of the 11 had won a Grade 1 chase (last years winner Knowhere being the exception)
- 7 of the 11 had already won at Cheltenham
- one 6yo, two 7yo's, three 8yo's, two 9yo's, one 10yo and two 11yo's make up the roll of honour

Likeliest trends winner: Alberta's Run
Anti-stat horse: Barbers Shop

3.10 Juvenile Hurdle

- Akilak (50/1) in 2005 was the only winner making his hurdling debut
- 5 of the remaining 8 won last time out, 2 finished 2nd
- 7 of those 8 won at least once over 2m in their last two outings
- only 3 winners had previously run at Cheltenham but all had won
- Alan King has won the last two runnings of this race

Likeliest trends winner: Walkon
Anti-stat horse: Reve de Sivola

3.45 Cleve Hurdle (full 10 years data)

- 9 of the 10 finished in the top 4 last time out (exception fell)
- No horse aged 10 or over won
- All 10 had form at Cheltenham with 9 of the 10 making the top 2 at the course
- All 10 winners had finished in the top 4 of a graded hurdle race
- All 10 had won a race between 2m - 3m

Likeliest trends winner: Punchestowns
Anti-stat horse: No Refuge

I'll leave the races at Doncaster alone from a Stats point of view because the course was closed for two years and the races run at Wetherby.

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My brother will be picking the horses for Saturday's Bonus Ball bet and the very best of luck to him in trying to boost the Prizepool. We've still got another Saturday to go after this which gives us plenty of time to make a nice big pot to give away.

It currently stands at £12.45 which even now would pay for a decent pub lunch.

If you haven't already registered simply email a number (1-49) to quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk and if your guess matches the Bonus Ball in the National Lottery draw on 31st January you share the prizepool with all the other correct guessers.

It's free to enter and open to everyone. One email and it could be you...

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Early Friday Fun.

It's time to get packing and as I won't be here on Friday you can have all the fun two days early.

Before I fly off here's a look at the second best free show in the world (NagNagNag Blog being Number 1 obviously).

The wonderful Fountains of the Bellagio



Good luck,
Gavin.

 

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Tuesday, 20 January 2009

Three for the sand....

Just a quick post today with a few horses I fancy.

First up one from my 'horses to follow' list.

Persian Peril 3.00 Southwell (1pt each way 8/1 or bigger)

My enthusiasm has been dampened somewhat as he has a bad draw to overcome and a 3lb rise in the handicap for his last outing but I'm still hopeful of a good run today. We may have to wait for some leniency from the handicapper before he resumes his winning ways but at around 8/1 an each-way wager looks in order.

The next selection runs in the Seller at 1.30 and comes from the Gay Kelleway yard.

Bobski 1.30 Southwell (1pt win)

The trainer won a similar contest yesterday with Singleb and Jamie Spencer onboard. He again takes the ride on Bobski and, although his resolution isn't the greatest (Bobski not Jamie Spencer!), he does have a lot in hand according to official ratings. He has won a few races in his time, including off a rating of 83, and this drop into selling class can get him winning again. The main dangers seem to be Lethal (a 6-y-o running in a seller) and Blue Charm who has been in consistent form recently.

Finally, the third of my fancies runs in the best and most valuable race of the day.

Majuro 2.30 Southwell (2pts win)

I tipped and backed Mozayada last week when she won but this step back up in class against the boys found her out before and will probably do the same again. The selection had her back a well beaten 4th on his last run and is better off again in the weights so I can't see any reason why those placings won't be confirmed. Nightjar returns to the Fibresand where he is 2 from 2 and looks set to pose the biggest threat along with Internationaldebut who is re-united with Adam Kirby, the jockey who rode him to three straight wins. With a strong pace looking likely for this competitive race I can see Jamie Spencer dropping in behind for a nice late swoop....

Currently -4.87 pts for this year.

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After yesterday's Placepot blew out on the last leg I'm going to give it a miss today but I'll be back tomorrow with another AW attempt along with a look at the weekends big races.

Good luck,
Gavin.

 

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Sunday, 18 January 2009

It wasn't us....

unfortunately.

Our failure to pick up any Lottery winnings just about rounded off a truly awful days punting and meant that what had started off as a promising week ended up a disaster. Even the sun stopped shining in Torbay, the self proclaimed English Riviera, leaving me cold, wet and miserable.

One thing that is almost guaranteed though, is that no matter how well this week starts off it will end even better for me as I will be enjoying 3 nights in the luxurious surroundings of the Wynn Hotel and Casino Resort in Las Vegas from this Friday. If you haven't visited and would like to see how amazing this hotel is, check out http://www.wynnlasvegas.com/#homepage/. I can't wait to go!

This does mean however that I will be away for Saturday's racing. I am hoping to bring the big race trends to you before I leave but having said that, after another big race winner (Cloudy Lane) defied some pretty solid stats it's getting close to the point where I rip up my trends book. Maybe I should start a new feature, the Anti-stat selection?

The Saturday Bonus Ball bet will be provided by my brother who in my absence has kindly agreed to pick the horses and place the wager out of his own pocket (did I mention that part Gary?)

All winnings will be added to the Prizepool as per normal (hopefully the returns though will be better than normal!)

The prizepool is currently standing at £12.45 with 2 weekends left.

If you haven't already done it, simply send a number 1-49 to quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk and if your guess matches the Bonus Ball from the National Lottery draw on 31st January you win an equal share of the prizepool. We have currently received over 250 entrants.

It's as easy as that and it's FREE!

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Today's Placepot bet comes from Wolverhampton and will have a perm looking like this;

3/5 - 4/5/11 - 1/2/4 - 2/10 - 3/8 - 9/11/13 = 216 bets

My old friend Swords runs in the 4.30 at Wolverhampton and is now back down to his last winning mark. He loves the AW track at Wolverhampton and these bigger sized fields suit him better than the 6 runner races he's been contesting lately. He may be worth a small each way interest.

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AW System Number 3

This isn't one I use myself but it has been around for quite some time and it throws up a few winners each Jan. / Feb. This was given to me when I used to run my betting shops and is only worth following at the start of the year.

It's again very simple and requires you to back 6-y-o's (not fillies or mares) in Sellers. Backing those that are under 8/1 in the betting increases your profit significantly.

Running this system through our racing software shows that in the period 1998-2007 you would have backed 62 winners from 220 runners (28%) and shown a Level Stakes Profit of +£24.22.

Depending on their odds there could be two qualifiers in today's 2.30 Wolv;
Forbidden & The London Gang

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Finally, due to my weekend away I think it's best to begin trialling a new racing system from next week as I don't think I'd be able to devote 100% of my attention to it. That wouldn't be fair to the system vendor or more importantly, you the readers. I hope you agree.

Good luck,

Gavin.

 

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Friday, 16 January 2009

It could be you.....

Nice to see the racing going ahead this Saturday and it's even nicer to see the BBC bothering to turn up and give us some racing coverage. We better make the most of it while we can.

The trends for the Peter Marsh Chase

1.55 Haydock

- The last 10 winners had all run within the past 2 months
- The last 9 winners were all 8 - 10-y-o's
- The last 9 winners all carried 11-01 or less
- None of the last 10 winners won their last race

Not a great race and a few in with a chance according to the trends. Montgermont has probably the best chance of the fancied horses but the one I like the look of is Faasel.

Outsiders have won this race in the past and at 25/1 with Ladbrokes I'm hoping he can give us a run for our money at a big price. The trainer sounds pretty confident in today's Racing Post and he'll do for me.

Another outsider that I will be backing today is Harris Bay in the 3.25 Ascot. The Racing Post has him down as a risky proposition but he's rated 5lb lower than when winning over the course just over a year ago and at around 33/1 I'll take a chance he may find some improvement on his recent runs. He likes the ground has won over the course and the distance and Henrietta Knight has quite a good record with her chasers around Ascot.

Gavin's bet: 1/2pt each way Harris Bay

Currently - 3.87pts this year.


Bonus Ball Bet

I'll be trying to boost the prizepool with the following bets today;

A slight change in tactics with 4 short priced horses in a £1 Lucky 15

12.30 Zaynar
1.20 Snap Tie
1.40 Free World
2.15 Master Minded

Surely we must get something back from those 4!

Plus

£2 ew Faasel @25/1 1.55Warwick
£2 ew Harris Bay 3.25 Ascot

and a full 6 from 7 perm on the National Lottery with the 7 most popular choices, from you the readers, in the Bonus Ball competition. They are currently.....

Numbers 12, 13, 14, 17, 23, 27, 31

Interestingly, of the 172 entries so far only 8 people have chosen a number in the 40's. Number 17 is the top choice with 13 people pinning their hopes on that one and number 20 is the only number under 40 not to be chosen....yet (I guess that will now change!)

You have until 7.30pm tonight to be included for any potential Lottery winnings and until 31st January to enter the Bonus Ball Draw for a share of all the prizepool.

Numbers (1-49) to quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk. It's FREE!!

(Anyone entering more than once will have the first number sent as their choice)

Good luck to us all,
Gavin.

P.S. I'll be back tomorrow with another AW system.

P.P.S. If you missed yesterday's post, I'm starting a Poker Blog at http://fourking-ace.blogspot.com/ on the 1st February. You can read all about it there and sign up for the updates in the blue box.

 

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Never a dull day....

Who says racing is boring....

First up we have a horse bolt from the stalls with it's blindfold still intact and plunge headfirst into the lake in the middle of the track at Kempton and then less than 24 hours later we have a horse well clear and set to make some people 200 grand richer unseat the jockey just yards from the line. It should at least provide the producers of Question of Sport with a couple of weeks clips for the 'What happened next' segment.

What can we expect today? Tony McCoy to ride a loser for Nicky Henderson? Gavin to tip 2 winners in a day? A footballer to move clubs for £108m? Okay, that last one was a bit too far fetched.

Anyway back to normality and a boring old AW system



All Weather System 2

Another system that doesn't provide too many runners but has proved profitable over the last few seasons. As with yesterday's system, feel free to do with it what you may. Use it, modify it, ignore it or bin it!

So, two rules to this one

1) Simply back horses (not fillies and mares) that ran in a handicap within the last 4 days.

2) They must have finished in the top 5 and are running at a distance of 8f or more.

Backing these type of horses from Jan 1st - March 31st you would have made a profit in every one of the last 5 years.

From 2002-2007 there were 19 winners from 93 runners at a strike rate of 20.43%. The level stakes profit was £26.60.

There are two horses running today that would qualify

2.20 Lingfield - Sea Cliff
8.20 Wolverhampton - Step it up

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Only one other horse is of interest to me today;

12.50 Lingfield. Ebert (1pt win)

Head and shoulders above these on form and ratings and with Matt's old horse Rapid City as his main danger this looks a good opportunity for him. Rapid City would have annihilated these in his heyday but has regressed badly over the past 12 months and his run last time out was truly awful. Ebert at least showed he was in some sort of form with his good 3rd in a claimer last time out and is taken to gain an overdue success in this weak seller.

After yesterday's small profit and despite my current bout of seconditus I am now -2.87 pts for the year.

At least I didn't tip Topless........

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Poker Blog

I am starting a Poker themed blog from the 1st February where I will be charting my progress as I aim to qualify for this years World Series in Las Vegas. You can read more here

http://fourking-ace.blogspot.com/

and if you wish to sign up to receive updates then please use the blue box on that page.

If poker is not your thing then rest assured, I won't email anyone from this blog unless they sign up for the updates.

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Friday Fun

The pictures haven't done the missus's pre-flight nerves any good but after seeing the plane land in the Hudson with everyone miraculously surviving I thought we'd have a look at the story of another 'successful' crash landing.

The trailer for one of the funniest movies ever, Airplane! Enjoy.....





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I'm off to visit the family down in the English Riviera this weekend but will be back tomorrow with the Saturday bet and the National Lottery numbers for our perm.

If you want to be in with a chance of sharing any winnings simply email the number (1-49) which you think will be the Bonus Ball for the National Lottery Draw on 31st January to

quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk

It's free with no catch!

Good luck,
Gavin.

 

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Wednesday, 14 January 2009

Back in the saddle...

...metaphorically speaking as obviously I don't actually write my Blog posts from the back of a horse!

It's great having time to read the Racing Post during breakfast, cross off the days on my calendar until I go to Vegas, walk my son to school and then sit back and study horses / play poker. This is certainly the life....

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As mentioned yesterday I will be taking a look at a few of the methods that I use to pick my All Weather horses over the next couple of days.

All Weather System Number 1

This is my favourite method of picking horses on the All Weather and has provided me with plenty of big priced winners over the years. The upside is that it's easy to work out any qualifiers with the downside being, it doesn't produce that many runners.

This system won't be for everyone and like most methods of selecting horses it does have its losers but it does also throw up the occasional nice winner.

This is the system that provided us with Valdan just before Christmas at 8/1 and the just beaten, heavily gambled Star Choice last week. There is another qualifier running later today but more of that in a bit.

I offer this free to all readers with no past data relating to any results or profit/loss! Do with it what you please.... Use it, modify it, ignore it or bin it!

So, the system.....
Simply back any horse that finished 2nd in a 9F+ handicap where the losing distance was 1/2 length or less and where there was 4 or more lengths back to the 3rd.
The horse must now be running in a handicap on the all weather.

Notes: I only give a horse 3 chances to win then delete from my list and for some reason they tend to win on the 2nd or 3rd run after being noted.

If you use the Racing Post results section you can see that Valdan was beaten 1/2 length into 2nd on the 9th November with 6 lengths back to the 3rd. He won on his 3rd run after I noted him at 8/1. Star Choice ran 2nd beaten a SH on the 27th October with 4 lengths back to the 3rd. He has run twice since and will be given one more chance.

Using these criteria, here are 5 horses from my list that I am waiting to run...

War of the Roses: Ran badly last time out when second favourite for a hot handicap. A drop back in grade to Class 4 or a weaker Class 3 should see him in the winners enclosure. (Optimum conditions: 1m 4f Lingfield Handicap, Class 4)

Persian Peril: Up to winning a Class 4 race but does need a strongly run race to bring out the best in him. (Optimum conditions: 1m3f Southwell Handicap, Class 4)

Bruki: Low grade maiden who should be able to pick up a lowly handicap on the All Weather. Hasn't run since mid-October but had the 3rd horse 20 lengths behind her that day. Looks like a slight drop back in trip may help. (Optimum conditions: 1m 4f Great Leighs Handicap, Class 6 or lower)

Epsom Salts: Ran up a hat-trick of AW wins late October/November but has finished 2nd in his last three runs. Definitely not ungenuine and a change of luck can get him back into the winners enclosure. Tried over 2m last time out when he looked particularly unlucky. Still only rated 66 he can win again. (Optimum conditions: 1m4f-2m Lingfield Handicap, Class 4 or 5)

Rawdon: Not the most genuine finisher but has won 4 times in his career. Seemed to dog it in a bit last time having cruised up to challenge but with a more forceful ride I'm sure he has another race in him. (Optimum conditions: 1m4f Southwell Handicap, Class 5). Running today.

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Today's racing.

I have 3 selections today



2.40Ludlow Spring Lover (1pt EW). Back to what looks a winning rating and running at it's favourite track. After 4 unsuccessful runs for Evan Williams he rejoins Venetia Williams which I'm hoping brings out the best in him.

2.30Southwell Mozayada (1pt Win). This drop back in class should see her pick up her winning ways.

7.20Great Leighs Ice Bellini (1pt Win). A weak race, Spencer on board and first time blinkers may make her a better proposition today.

9.20Great Leighs Rawdon (1pt Win). On my list of horses to follow, see above.

After last nights 2nd (looks like I may have caught seconditus again) I am currently -3.38pts for the year.

My Placepot Bet

Today it's the Great Leighs Placepot and this is my perm;

4-7-12 / 1-4 / 1-8-13 / 1-3-8 / 4-8 / 1-5 = 216 bets

While going through the Placepot there were a couple of interesting horses I noticed. In the 8.20 Almaty Express (no.8) has a light weight and another 7lb off his back thanks to his claimer. He is a multiple AW winner who has done most of his winning in January and February and may take a lot of pegging back should he adopt the usual front running tactics.

The other to catch my eye was Treetops Hotel in the 7.50. This really is a shocking race and while Treetops is now a 10-y-o a race of this nature could still be his for the taking. He has won many races in his career including off a rating of 60 and while obviously he has regressed it is interesting that the trainer has sent him on a near 200 mile journey to contest this £1700 race. He's 33/1 in the Racing Post tissue.

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And finally, another reminder to register your Bonus Ball for the National Lottery draw on 31st January. The Prizepool is only £8.50 so far but we have three more weekends to boost that figure and all correct entries will share the pool. Plus, all those who have registered by 7.30pm this Saturday will be in with a chance of sharing any Lottery winnings from the 6 from 7 perm I will be placing in this weeks National Lottery draw.

So simply, any number from 1-49 to quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk to enter this FREE competition.

Good luck,
Gavin.

 

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Tuesday, 13 January 2009

Hi Ho, Hi Ho....

....It's off to work I no longer go!

At last! After just over 3 months of working my butt off I have now finished and have the luxury of some time to myself. This will of course be spent playing poker and betting horses.

It also means that as from tomorrow I will be back in full swing with regular postings and I will begin introducing all the new features for the blog that I mentioned around the start of the New Year.

First up will be some of the AW systems I use along with a list of horses I am waiting for to run.

I will also start posting my daily Placepot bet. I usually do a Placepot on at least one AW meeting a day and I'll show you all my systems, perms and selections (and of course the profit / loss figures).

Then next week I will start reviewing some Racing Systems and some other racing related products. All of this will be interspersed with the usual tips, competitions, fun and other nonsense. Stay tuned...

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I have just the one horse for today and that is Rock Anthem in the 8.50 Kempton. He's slipped down the handicap to what looks a very favourable mark and has shown a revival in fortunes in his last two runs. The slight doubt is the track as he definitely prefers racing on fibresand but the last time he ran at Kempton he wasn't in the kind of form he is in now and I'm willing to give him a chance to prove the doubters wrong.

Selection: Rock Anthem (1pt win)

(Currently: -2.38pts for the season at SP)

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National Lottery Bonus Ball Competition

There's still plenty of time to enter this months Bonus Ball competition and, thankfully, there's still plenty of time for me to boost the Prizepool! It currently stands at £8.50.

Everyone who successfully guesses the Bonus Ball for the National Lottery draw on Saturday 31st January will win a share of the final Prizepool. Please note the draw date!

And as an extra Bonus I will be placing an entry for the Lottery draw this Saturday. I will use the most popular 7 numbers that you have chosen so far and doing a full perm of any 6 from these 7. You can find out the chosen numbers in Saturday's Post.

All winnings will be added to the Prizepool and if we should be lucky enough to win a decent amount i.e 5 numbers or better (you never know, it could be us!) I will share it with everyone who has entered by 7.30pm this Saturday regardless of whether they correctly nominate the Bonus Ball or not.

If you want a share and haven't already sent in a number then simply email quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk.

It's free with absolutely no catch. What are you waiting for?.....

Good Luck,
Gavin.

 

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Friday, 9 January 2009

The one that got away.....

No, I haven't made good on my New Year Resolution to read Moby Dick just yet!

I'm talking about Star Choice who ran well (though it was quite hard to tell because of the fog) only to tie up and get caught close home thus denying me another big payday. I managed to get a nice each way bet on at 9/1 only to be mugged on the line by the one horse I didn't want to lose to. Obviously connections fancied him too as he returned 5/2 favourite after strong support all day and while I'd like to take the credit for the gamble I doubt there's enough readers out there who take enough notice of my tips to force the price down that much.

Star Choice is definitely worth another chance next time out.

And last word on the subject; the reason I didn't want Night Orbit to be the one to beat the selection is simply because Matt has a part share in the animal and with him away skiing he was oblivious to the horses participation and /or it's well being. While I'm very happy for Matt to be a winning owner I just wish it had been another race or we had known the trainers thoughts. Luckily for him I texted him before the race started and he was at least able to get a wager on. Which doesn't help me or anyone else who backed the runner up but at least we know Matt is happily on the piste.....

Which leads nicely onto the Friday Fun and a collection of skiing mishaps....


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I'm not too sure whether (weather!) the NH racing will go ahead tomorrow so I will play it safe with 4 from the AW....

Kempton Bonus Ball £1 ew Lucky 15

2.15 Ishibee
2.45 Zuwaar
3.15 Pegasus Again
3.45 Lady Aspen

Let's hope we can add some funds to the prizepool with that quartet.

If you want to win a share of all the Prizepool winnings simply send your guess for the National Lottery Bonus Ball (1-49) to quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk before 7pm on 31st January.

It's free to enter and there's no catch. What are you waiting for.....

Good Luck,
Gavin.

 

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Thursday, 8 January 2009

One for Lingfield.....

Just a very quick post today to give a selection for the 4.00 Lingfield.

He's been on my AW list for a couple of months and I've been waiting for him to run again after running a real shocker when favourite last time out. The horse is Star Choice and if the Racing Post betting forecast is right, and 14/1 is available, I shall be lumping on.

Selection: Star Choice (1pt Each Way)

Yesterday's fancies were a real mixed bag with a Non Runner, an 8 length winner (11/4) and a tailed off last!
A nice profit on the day if you decided to go with me but something was definitely wrong with Prince Noel. Let's hope there's no similar story with today's fancy...

Good Luck,
Gavin.

 

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Wednesday, 7 January 2009

The Big Chill.....

It looks like the whole country is gripped in a bit of a cold snap. Here in Cardiff it's been as cold as I can remember in recent years and catching 7a.m. trains has certainly been an invigorating experience. At least I've only got 4 days left of work for this season, hooray. Las Vegas here I come.

The racing has been a big sufferer of the weather and the likelihood of any turf racing in the near future looks particularly bleak. This leaves us with the All Weather for our racing punts and for those of you looking for a bet I've picked a few for tomorrow's racing.

As always, feel free to back them, lay them or ignore them!

2.25 Great Leighs

Kings Head is absolutely thrown in on official ratings and at around evens looks a great bet to me. He takes a massive drop in class and won't find anything of the quality of Grande Caiman in this race.

2.50 Southwell

United Nations goes under a 6lb penalty and will be carrying my cash in his hat-trick bid. He only just got home last time out but was slowly away then and with an even break can return to the form of his 4 1/2 length course & distance demolition at the end of December.

3.20 Southwell

I'm going to take a bit of a gamble on Prince Noel, who comes from an in form stable, to defy top weight and a drop back in trip.

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Free Racing Books

The Racing Post are currently running a very good promotion where they are offering readers the chance to get their hands on some FREE racing books. Everyone loves a Freebie and by collecting just 5 tokens you can claim from a wide selection of good quality racing tomes. The more tokens you collect the higher the value of book you can select from.

This has resulted in me running around Cardiff tearing out pages from the betting shop editions of the Racing Post and collecting a large stack of tokens. I will claim as many free books as I can and then offer them as prizes over the coming weeks.

Or if you're not feeling particularly lucky you can always do the same and nip down the local bookies to get the tokens and claim the books yourself!

Bonus Ball Prizepool

With last weeks bets all falling victim to the weather the prizepool still stands at nothing but we have 3 more weeks to put that right. I'll be back on Saturday with a Lucky 15 but I thought I'd try something a little different to try and get the ball rolling (excuse the pun).

With the Golf Season set to start this weekend I'm going to use the £20 returned last Saturday to back some golfers. The Mercedes Benz tournament kicks off the season with 33 of last years PGA tour winners lining up and our prizepool hopes will be resting on.

3 off the tee...

£5 EW A. Scott 12/1

And two big priced outsiders to try and boost the fund....

£2.50 EW R. Johnson 150/1
£2.50 EW W. MacKenzie 66/1


If you want to win a share of all the Prizepool winnings simply send your guess for the National Lottery Bonus Ball (1-49) to quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk before 7pm on 31st January.

It's free to enter and there's no catch. What are you waiting for.....

Until Friday, it's goodbye from me.
Good Luck,
Gavin.

 

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Friday, 2 January 2009

A New Years Resolution...

....is something that goes in one Year and out the other.


Friday Fun

This year I resolve to, Stick to the Speed Limit.....




.....Stop Drinking.....


....and Smoking....




....Lose weight.....

.....and spend less time on my computer....


New Year’s resolutions

Here are mine for 2009.....

Number 1) Finish Moby Dick
I've started this classic book so many times but I've never finished it. It's quite heavy going but this year I'm determined to read it to the end.
Odds of me succeeding 1/2

2) Go to Las Vegas (again).

I'm all booked on 23rd January for a 3 night stay at the Wynn so here's one resolution I should be able to keep.

Odds of me succeeding: No odds!

3) Qualify for the World Series of Poker (again).

I did it once and I'll be trying my hardest to do it again. I've deposited $1000 into my Pokerstars account and will be starting my attempt on 12th January.

You can read how I'm getting on by checking out my new Blog;


Odds of me succeeding: 3/1

4) Make a profit on my betting for the year (again)

It hasn't happened for a while and yesterday wasn't the best way to begin the New Year. I'm -2 points and feel like a Bournemouth fan facing the start of the season with a points deficit.
With the All Weather, the Cheltenham Festival and the Flat Sprints to look forward I'm hoping to be well infront by the Spring then launch an assault on the National, the Classics and Royal Ascot, keep the momentum going throughout the Summer and finish off the year in style at The Breeders Cup, Newbury and Kempton.

Odds of me succeeding 5/1
5) Beat my son at Wii Speed Racer (for the first time)
He's only 5 and obviously can't drive yet but he's really got the knack of this computer game. Watching him burn up the track has to be seen to be believed. He's back at school on Tuesday so I'll take the opportunity to get some practice in...
Odds of me succeeding 16/1
And remember, an optimist stays up until midnight to see the New Year in. A pessimist stays up to make sure the old year leaves.

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It wasn't a good start to the New Year with my first tip going down the pan but at least there's plenty more time left to turn it around. I don't have a strong fancy for anything today but here are 4 for a TV Lucky 15 which will form the first bet in the Bonus Ball winnings pool.

2.10 Sandown
Without A doubt. P Brennan has ridden him twice finishing runner up both times and both over todays C&D. He had his 1st winner for a while yesterday on Hennessy for todays trainer C Llewellyn. He stays the trip well and gets the vote over New Little Bric who should appreciate the drop in class.

3.15 Sandown
I Hear A Symphony's second at Haydock last time behind Good Company looks a very good standard in this race. With only 10-3 to carry he looks a solid e/w bet with the in-form pair of Lorient Express and Medicinal the obvious dangers.

3.30 Wincanton
I Hear Thunder back over conventional fences after having tackled Cheltenhams cross country track on his last couple of runs should put up an improved performance with both the trip and track more to his liking.

3.50 Sandown
Prince Taime looks to have a much more realistic chance than when beaten by Sentry Duty at Ascot. Having said that, this is an ultra competitive h'cap where chances could be made for virtually the whole field. An interesting runner is Dishdasha and I nearly made him the selection. His early season form was good and then he ran behind Chomba Womba at Wincanton from a long way out the H'cap. His last run at Cheltenham from his proper mark shows he is capable of winning a race and at around the 40/1 mark he could be worth a small e/w investment.
Bonus Ball Bet:
50p ew Lucky 15
2.10 Without a Doubt
3.15 I Hear A Symphony
3.30 I Hear Thunder
3.50 Prince Taime
plus
£2.50 ew Dishdasha

All the returns will be added to the fund and you can win a share by simply predicting the National Lottery Bonus Ball on the 31st January and sending it to quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk.

Remember it's free and there's no catch.
Good Luck,
Gavin.

 

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Thursday, 1 January 2009

A Happy New Year...

to all our readers.

I hope and wish everyone has a great and prosperous 2009. We here at Nag3 will be doing our very best to make it as prosperous as possible and what better time or place to start than with today's card at Cheltenham.

I'm feeling the effects of too many Budweiser's last night and after writing today's post it's back to bed for me to watch the racing.

Even through the mist of my hangover though it's clear to see that the Racing Post website is still suffering problems and today's cards show all National Hunt runners having their seasonal debut. Maybe all the staff are suffering too but surely someone must have noticed that it's the start of the Flat season today but National Hunt racing doesn't finish until April time. I feel an email coming on...

Anyway, 4 races on Channel 4 so let's have an alcohol induced fuzzy look at them....

1.40

A small field but a very tight race with all 5 in with a chance. Paul Nicholls hasn't had the best of luck at Cheltenham so far this season but I'm going with Kicks For Free to give him a change of fortune. He has the best form on show and is a confident selection to get back to winning ways.

2.10

It seems every man and his dog is tipping Three Mirrors for today's feature race and it's easy to see why. He ran a great race in the Paddy Power on ground softer than he would like and the stable weren't in the best of form at the time. With the better ground and Ferdy Murphy firing in the winners left right and centre he does look a great bet today.

Get on and be sure to take the 11/2.

2.45

I tipped Ballydub last time when he won and I'll be sticking with him again today. Up 14lb for that decisive Newbury win should make it tougher today but he looks a progressive sort who should be up to following up here.

3.20

Another tight race with any 4 of the 5 runners in with a shout but I'm going to side with No Refuge in the hope that he can reproduce his last time out Wetherby run. Francheok sets the standard but has found winning hard recently and has to give 8lb to the selection.

Those are my tips for Cheltenham's TV races but I'm going to Southwell for my bet of the day.

She goes in the 3.15 and has run up a quick 4 timer with some easy wins along the way. Up 32lb since her winning run started and running in a very tough race she may look vulnerable today but I am confident that the 5 timer will be struck.

Gavin's bet of the day: Mozayda (2pt win)

Good luck,
Gavin.

 

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