2009 is fast approaching.

Hello dear readers and I hope you all had a very happy festive holiday. I assume like me you have imbibed and are suitably sated and are ready to do it all again to see in the New Year.

Here at Nag Towers we had a great family gathering with plenty of wine, food and presents. With all the selection boxes and tins of Quality Street in the house we now have enough chocolate to see us through until Easter.

But for now it's time to get back to work and start writing the Blog again and as I mentioned last week, there will be a few changes here at Nag3 for the New Year. Most things will remain exactly the same but in some cases it's out with the old and in with the new.

So what's coming to a computer screen near you in 2009?

First up are the Blog tips and a slight revamp to try and make things a bit (hopefully a lot!) more profitable in 2009.

I'm aware how popular the trends and stats are as a method of assessing the big races and I'll be continuing this method of picking selections next year. However they don't always come up with the horse that I would necessarily fancy and this has caused a few problems in the past with winners being missed. So, I will go through the races using the trends as I've always done and post the horse or horses that fit the relevant criteria but these will not necessarily be my own personal selections.

Which leads me onto the main change to the way I aim to post my Blog selections...

Trying to pick the winners of a whole host of TV races or the winner of every race at a major meeting is nigh on impossible and something that has proved beyond me! So though I'll still be giving my thoughts on as many races as I used to I'm going to be more selective in my personal betting and let you know the ones I really fancy.

I'll be listing the horses and giving a staking plan of 1 - 4 points depending on how I personally rate its chances. I'll also be keeping a running total through the year so you can all see how good or bad a tipster I really am (gulp!).

The All Weather

I've touched on this before but I'll say it again, I really like All Weather racing and the January-February period has seen some of my most profitable betting. I have a few systems that I use and I will share these with you next week along with a list of horses that I am waiting to back.

Placepots

From the feedback that we get here at Nag3 it seems that the Placepot is a bet that captures your imagination. So I'll be running a regular Placepot feature with bet perms, tips, systems and hopefully a few juicy dividends along the way.

Bonus Ball

The free competitions I ran before Xmas seemed to go down well with everyone so we'll continue them into the New Year and beyond. The last Saturday of the month will be the chosen draw with the first one being January 31st.
As before, it will be free to enter with the prize split between all those who correctly predict the Bonus Ball number.
Simply email your number to quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk anytime before January 31st to be included in the first draw. Remember, it's free and there's no catch.

As for the Prize, I will place a wager each Saturday leading up to the draw date and all returns from these bets will form the Prize Money. I'll Post the wager each Saturday morning and the running total so everyone knows how much we're playing for each month.

Cheltenham Naps Competition

Also, following on from last years Naps Competition I'll be running another one covering the 4 days of the Cheltenham Festival. Free to enter with some great prizes it's one to put in your diary. More details to follow.....

Systems

There's going to be a lot more system reviews next year concentrating mainly on backing horses rather than laying them plus they'll also be software, book and other racing related reviews all with the usual honest, no bull appraisal that you've come to expect from us here at Nag3.

and finally....

The Friday Fun

Will be back with normal service resuming this Friday.

That's it for now, I'll be back tomorrow with my New Year Resolutions accompanied by the latest betting on how long they last.

Good luck,
Gavin.

Boxing Day......

is apparently so called because of the custom of gifting boxes to tradesmen for their good service throughout the year.

It has nothing to do with the noble art of pugilism, though in our household there have been many near punch-ups caused by the traditional after dinner board game disagreements. It wouldn't be the Christmas Season if someone in the family didn't cry over the Monopoly, pout over Scrabble or claim bias in any Quiz questions.

Us Priestley's have always been a bit on the competitive side and personal pride is always at stake even when it's only my son's Indianna Jones collapsing tower game. '2nd place is where the list of losers starts'

It's almost a pleasure to go back to work, well, almost as it does mean I'll be missing the live racing from Kempton today and I'll have to catch up thanks to my trusted Sky+.

And here are the results I would like to be checking come 7pm tonight.....

I'll start with the big one The King George and stick with my original thoughts on the race from the beginning of December.

With War of Attrition staying at home and heading for the Lexus I'll be backing just the one horse in the race, namely, Voy Por Ustedes.

1.30 Kempton

The Market Man took full advantage of the 7lb he received last time from Kicks for Free and ran out a convincing winner. But, with the exception of last year, 8-y-o's don't have that good a record in the race and racing off level weights today with another Nicholls inmate he may not find it as easy. I'm going to side with Breedsbreeze.

2.05 Kempton

Straw Bear has long been one of my favourite hurdlers and he has given me some big pay days in the past. Chasing was never going to be his game and when he's in the mood he can put in an excellent performance. At around the 14/1 mark it may be worth chancing a little that today is one of those days.

But it does look look like Punjabi is the most likely answer to this competitive looking renewal and he can give another addition to Nicky Hendersons strong looking Champion Hurdle task force.

Those three should make a nice win Patent.

I'll also be having a crack at the Placepot with the following perm;

6/11/14 - 1/4 - 6/8 - 1/11 - 3/4/6 - 1/4/14 = 216 bets

Good Luck,
Gavin.

2 shopping days left....

until Christmas, though I doubt you need to be told that!

Judging by the vast numbers of shoppers invading Cardiff yesterday and the mad rush to buy calendars it seems the British public have finally realised Christmas is nearly upon us.

With the New Year fast approaching it's time to forget about the global economy and concentrate on making 2009 as profitable as possible for all Nag3 readers. With this in mind I'll be introducing a whole host of new features in 2009 designed to boost everyones betting banks and banish any thoughts of the credit crunch.

I'll let you know more next week but you can look forward to the same old stuff and nonsense combined with amongst other things, more competitions, more system reviews, Placepot features, guest tipsters, big race previews and hopefully less dodgy tips!

I'll be following the All Weather closely through January and February using a few of my own personal systems including the one that selected Valdan last week.

With no work to worry about from 11th January onwards I'll be able to concentrate fully on the Nag3 Blog and I'll also be launching my very own poker blog which will follow my attempts to qualify again for the World Series of Poker.

But before all that I have a few things to clear up. Firstly.......

Bonus ball bonanza

We had 198 entries for this weeks Bonus Ball competition with 5 people correctly guessing Number 25 would be the 7th ball drawn and will all share the prizepool of £50.19.

I thought Numide ran a great race and would certainly have gone very close if he hadn't made such an unfortunate horlicks of the last. A 12/1 winner would have made a very nice pre-Christmas winner but that's racing and at least he managed to still make the frame and reward our each way wager.

Our Lucky 15 was less profitable with just a 2/1 winner and the other 3 selections looking less than solid choices. Blazing Bailey was particularly disappointing and he won't be carrying my cash again this season unless he shows an improvement in his attitude to the game.

Anyhow, congratulations to;

Debbie S
Joel
Jack S
Alan the Snowman (who heard it from Santa's Elves apparently)
and Jennifer M.

who were the lucky winners and will each get a tenner towards their Xmas fund.

(The winners have been notified and the cheques will be dispatched shortly.)

Many thanks to all those who entered.

Due to the obvious popularity of this guessing game I think I'll introduce it as a monthly feature in the New Year.

I'll try and blag some more betting vouchers to pay for the monthly prizes. Failing that I'll have to raid the Priestley family piggy bank....

----------

TTS

You may have seen on Matts geegeez blog that we are running an Xmas special offer with the Trainer Track Stats but if you haven't read it (why not?), basically we're offering the remainder of the Seasons selections for just £67

Click here to take advantage

[Note: if you're already a subscriber, you simply cancel your current sub through PayPal and sign up for the new one.]

--------

This will probably be my last post before the festivities begin so that just leaves me to wish all readers

A VERY MERRY CHRISTMAS AND A PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR!

I'll be back on Boxing day with a Kempton review and hopefully a few winners.

Until then, best wishes for a happy festive holiday,
Gavin.

Go on, make my Christmas....

And so the final chance for me to make someones Christmas that little bit better is here.

Many thanks to all those of you who have emailed your Bonus Ball choices (138 so far..) and the very best of luck to you all.

Now all that remains is for us to have some winnings to put up for the prize and so here are the horses that will be carrying the Christmas cash;


£10 each way Numide 2.45 Ascot

£1 each way Lucky 15

1) 2.45 Ashkazar - Both Templegate in the Sun and Pricewise have napped this.
2) 1.25 Issaquah - Newsboy has napped this one over at Haydock
3) 1.40 Blazing Bailey - this is my Nap of the day and I fancy him to reverse Newbury placings with Duc De Regniere
4) 1.05 Piraya - fancied for the Paddy Power Chase but couldn't go the pace. This step up in trip should see him a better light.

It's not too late to stake your claim for the cash. Simply email a number (1-49) to quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk and if your number matches the National Lottery Bonus Ball you win all (or a share if two or more of you are correct) of the returns from the bets.

Entries in by 7.30pm

-------

Good luck,
Gavin.

Ascot Friday.....

ASCOT Friday
A quick look at two races from Ascot using the trends...

1.55 Kennel Gate Novice Hurdle

-10 of the last 11 winners made the top two last time out (which doesn't help us very much!)
-9 of the 11 raced within the last two months (nor does that!)
-Only one winner (Marcel) had run in graded hurdle race company (a little better!)

Oh dear, well at least the trends have a chance of holding up in this race.

I'm going to take a chance with last years winning trainer Evan Williams and back his Bergo to reverse last time out course and distance placings with Dee Ee Williams. They raced off level weights that day and with Bergo receiving 7lb from his Ascot conqueror in today's race I'm hoping that is enough for him to find the necessary 3/4 length deficit.

2.30 Noel Novices Chase

- The last 12 winners had all run within the last two months
- All 12 ran in a novice or beginners chase last time out
- 11 of the last 12 had a maximum of 4 races over fences
- 11 of the last 12 had won a class 4 or better Chase over 2m -2m 5f that season

Again this doesn't help us too much except to say that Turkish Surprise has it all to do.

I'm going to go with Evan Williams again and Deep Purple to give him a quick Ascot double. He won the Kennel Gate novice hurdle on this card last year and after some dodgy jumping first time chasing he seemed to get his act together last time out and won very easily from a fair sort at Taunton. With his confidence boosted he can now start to forge a successful chasing career.

Friday Fun

It's all about the balls.

Simply email your guess for tomorrow nights National Lottery Bonus Ball to quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk and you could win or share the entire proceeds from the two bets I will be placing on Saturday's racing. Namely,

£10 each way on Numide for the Ladbroke handicap (my trends selection for Saturday's big race previewed in Wednesday's blog)

and

£1 each way Lucky 15 on Pricewise headline selection in the Racing Post, Value Scopes horse from the Daily Mirror (he must get a winner before the end of the year!) plus Newsboys and Templegates Naps.

If any race is repeated then I will use some discretion to place the wager.

Don't forget, it's free to enter, open to everyone and there's no catch. Just make sure you email a number from 1-49 before 7.30pm Saturday.

Good luck,
Gavin.

8 Shopping Days left to Christmas....

...or as I like to think, 8 days until I get a day off!

Things I have learnt while working for the Calendar Club....

- No matter how bizarre the Calendar may seem there is always someone who will buy it. Calendar on Darts, Vinegar(!?), Revenge, Rock Climbing, Koi carp or Pigeons anyone? No problem we have them all!

- Sesquipedalophobia is a fear of big words. I find this bizarre because if there is anyone who suffers this particular affliction then having to read their diagnosis every time isn't going to do them much good is it? Maybe they could have found a smaller word for this particular fear. Wordfear perhaps...

- Liverpool fans buy the most football calendars of all the Premier teams.

- Keira Knightley is the most beautiful woman in the world.

- Jordan is not!

- Girls over 13 love Zac Efron, women over 18 love Wentworth Miller, women over 25 love David Tennent, women over 40 love Daniel Craig, women over 50 love George Clooney and women over 60 love cats.

- Men like breasts (I actually knew this before starting work but my suspicions have now been well and truly confirmed)

- Kirigami is the art of paper cutting.

- Trying to sell England rugby calendars in Cardiff isn't very easy.

- Anyone buying a Cliff Richard calendar is purchasing it for someone else.

- Ditto Daniel O'Donnell

- and finally, dead people sell more calendars. Elvis, John Wayne, Marilyn Monroe, 2 pac, Bob Marley all do very nicely thanks. Take note Robbie Williams.

------------

Back to the racing and first up today is a look at this Saturday's big race;

The Ascot Ladbroke Handicap

The Trends. The inaugural running of this race was in 2001 leaving us with 7 years of data;

- All 7 winners ran at a Grade 1 track last time out
- Five 5-y-o's and two 7-y-o's have prevailed
- All 24 runners aged 8 and over have failed along with all 27 of the 6-y-o runners.
- All 7 were distance winners
- All 7 were rated between 122 and 136
- 6 of the 7 were placed in the first 3 last time out
- 5 horses had run in the past month with the two exceptions making their seasonal debut and both from the Pipe stable
- Only 1 favourite has obliged

Which I think leaves us with three, Numide (7/1) - Prince Taime (16/1) and Sky Hall (25/1).

3 of the last 7 winners had won a handicap at Cheltenham on their previous start giving Numide the best credentials of the three. There was a lot to like about the way he battled on to hold Aigle D'or that day and he looks a very solid each way bet at this stage.

Of the other two I would prefer Sky Hall and for those of you looking for a big pre-Christmas winner then he could be the one. In the brief history of this race there have been a couple of big priced winners already (25/1 & 33/1) and Sky Hall has a chance to spring another surprise.

Selection: Numide
Each way hope: Sky Hall


Today's Racing

Over at Newbury today Paul Nicholls runs the much hyped ex-Aiden O'Brien horse Hebridean in the first race. His last run was in the Champion Stakes at Newmarket, which should give an indication of his class, and if he can translate his form from the flat to the smaller obstacles he should make a very smart hurdler. He's bound to be odds on but for those of you who like to bet the short ones he looks a good thing.

Another runner I'll be backing today is Valdan in Lingfield's 2.45. You may remember me tipping him last week when he finished a neck 2nd behind Risque Heights. He showed himself to be in good form with that run and I'm going to give him another chance today. With Epsom Salts in the race he may have another battle on his hands but if we can get the forecast 6/1 it should give us a nice each way bet.

Bonus Ball

Don't forget to send in your prediction for this Saturday's National Lottery Bonus Ball.

It's free and all winnings from my £1 each way Lucky 15 will go to everyone who gets it right.

And, as a special bonus I'll be putting £10 each way on Numide in the Ladbroke and giving any profits to the prize pool as well.

Just send your number to quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk to be in with a chance of having Christmas dinner paid for!

Remember it's free and there really is no catch!

Good Luck,
Gavin.

Lucky Number 5....

It's good news, bad news time from Nag3 HQ.

First the good news....We made a profit on Saturday's Lucky 15!!

Thanks to John '9.9999/10' Daly's two horses both making the frame and Cheltenham being abandoned our each way wager managed to make money.

The bad news....the profit was only 50p!!!
But hey, that's a return of £30.50 to go with the £2.88 from Friday's bet making a total prize for the Friday Fun Quiz of £33.38.

The National Lottery bonus ball was number 5 which was correctly chosen by 4 readers (5 if you include the person who emailed at 10.30pm last night!) and so each will receive a cheque for just over £8 each.

Well done to;
Pete R
Geoff R
Cyril C
John P

I know it won't pay for the kids X BOX 360 or buy the missus her Dyson but hopefully it will pay for some Christmas booze or a small flutter on the King George.

But wait, there's more GOOD NEWS....

I'm going to do it all over again this Saturday and will place a £1 each way Lucky 15 on four well known Newspaper tipsters Naps.

And again the returns from the bet will be split between all those readers who successfully predict the National Lottery Bonus Ball in Saturday's draw.

The email address is the same, quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk, and you can send in your prediction anytime from now up to 7.30pm on Saturday.

All readers are welcome to have a go. Newbies, oldies, not so oldies, first timers, last timers and even if you won this week you can try again.

One simple email with a number between 1-49 is all it takes.......

Good luck,
Gavin.

It's Saturday

....and it's my second attempt to try and make someones Christmas!

After yesterday's very disappointing selections it looks like we need a couple of decent winners today to make it all worthwhile. Maybe we need a change of tactics.....

In the last Friday Fun I asked you all, how many out of 10 you would rate yourself as a tipster? and most of you, modestly, answered in the lower end of the scale.

Except one very confident reader who claimed herself to be 9.9999/10.

As it turned out 'she' was in fact a 'he' who was hiding behind the name on his other-half's email address and is now claiming that he put the decimal point in the wrong place.

Well there's only one way to find out if Mr John Daly of Leicester is a 9.9999 or a 0.99999 out of 10 and that is to put his tips to the test. So that is what we will do.

He has kindly sent in two horses and, such is my confidence in him, I will put them in the Friday Fun Lucky 15 for today. They are;

11.35 Southwell Mrs Bun
12.40 Southwell Lord Chancellor

To which I will add my own two fancies;

2.30 Cheltenham Imperial Commander (selected earlier in the week)
3.05 Cheltenham Katchit (back at his favourite course and not trying to give lumps of weight away in a handicap)

I will place another £1 ew Lucky 15 on these 4 and all winnings (along with today's shabby £2.88 returns) will go to all those readers who correctly predict the Bonus Ball number in tonight's National Lottery.

It's not too late to stake your claim. Simply email your prediction (1-49) of what you think will be drawn as tonights Bonus Ball to quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk before 7.30pm.

It is as easy as that, There is no catch, It's open to everyone who is reading this blog whether that is for the first, umpteenth or even the last time, It's free money from the Nag3 Blog expense account.
But, how much you win depends on those 4 horses.

If it all goes pear shaped (again!) then I have one last chance and one last Coral's betting voucher to try again next Saturday.

Good Luck,
Gavin.

Christmas cash up for grabs......

Unfortunately it's another quick post today as I am snowed under at work.

To enable me to take 8 months off each year I spend the other 4 months selling calendars for the Calendar Club and I do this without any days or time off except Christmas Day (I mention this not as a cry for sympathy but as an excuse for my rather sporadic and brief postings of late.)

As Christmas approaches, the dreaded late night shopping has begun leaving me with even less time to write this blog.

I will try to post as often as I can before the New Year and cover as much as possible of the excellent racing that is coming up but be prepared for a few missed days.

I hope you'll all stay tuned for this short period of time and bear with me while I concentrate on paying the mortgage.

Normal service will be resumed around the middle of January when I will be able to devote my full attention to the Blog and bring in some exciting new features and a lot more system reviews. I'll probably still be giving out the same old dodgy tips but I doubt you'd expect anything else.....

----------

Needless to say, it doesn't matter how busy things get at work I always find the time to nip out for my punting requirements and with Cheltenham on the telly tomorrow here are four of those dodgy tips for my TV Lucky 15.....


12.45 C A very competitive h'cap hurdle run over 3m which should suit the Newmarket Ceasarewitch winner Caracciola. The oldest runner in the race, at 11, he showed he was no back number when he absolutely bolted up and if he shows anywhere near that level of form here he looks a great bet. Top weight Fair Along loves it round here and should again run his race. Likely Fav is Buena Vista from Pipes stable and he along with Diablo both have chances but I cant see beyond Caracciola.

1.20 C Another of those silly races which I wouldn't normally bother with but I have a little fancy for one. I am keen on the chances of Florida Dream and at around 16/1 he looks outstanding e/w value. He knows his way round this funny circuit having participated in several of these before, lets just hope they all take the same course and not any legitimate shortcuts (unless its David England on Florida dream of course!). Of the others Battle Axe, Crystal D'Ainay, L'Ami and Garde Champetre have all been round here before with varying degrees of success but it's I Hear Thunder that could be the dark horse of the race.

1.55 C A host of Grand National bound horses of which there is one of great interest to me. Simon ran very well in the National 2 years ago before U/R and then did the same this year. His jumping on park courses is very good though and he does run well round here including a fine 4th here at the last meeting. He should have come on a lot for that run and I expect a big run from him on his way back to Aintree and as a long punt I feel it could be his year at Aintree. Character Building and Possol are the most likely dangers but Irish Raptor is a long shot with a squeak.

2.30 C Alexanderthegreat should rule over these if he shows anything like his novice form from 2 years ago. He ran well on his reappearance and as long as that was no fluke he must make the frame at worst. Royal Kicks and Double Dizzy are the dangers along with Best Profile.

Each Way Lucky 15

Caracciola
Florida Dream
Simon
Alexanderthegreat

-----------

Friday Fun

I'll place a £1 Each Way Lucky 15 on these 4 horses and the same again on tomorrows 4 TV horses in a bid to win someone a nice Christmas.

All you need to do is send in your prediction for the Bonus Ball in tomorrow nights National Lottery main draw. All winnings from both bets will be split between the correct entries.

Easy Peasy.

Entries to quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk with a number between 1 and 49. They must be in by 7.30pm Saturday.

Good luck,
Gavin.

Peterborough Chase.....

Just a quick post today to give some thoughts on what looks a great renewal of the Peterborough Chase.

It's a rare treat to have a Grade 2 race on a Thursday and the race looks well up to that standard.

They bet 4/1 the field and of course the favourite is supplied by Paul Nicholls with his Natal. He may struggle to beat Mahogany Blaze as his seasonal debut behind Ashley Brook leaves him a bit to find.

The usual profile of the race winner is a Grade 1,2 or 3 winner aged 9 or under that is from the first three in the betting.

However, they don't usually get a large field with such open betting so yet again we could see the trends rendered useless.

The two I like the look of the most are Mahogany Blaze and My May de Solzen.

I would probably favour Mahogany Blaze if it wasn't for the distance of the race as he seems to struggle when racing beyond 2m3f. Though his form is good enough to win this race I will pass him over for the former top class hurdler My Way de Solzen.

He won the Arkle in 2007 but lost his way over fences last season and ended up running over hurdles for his last 3 races which included a 5th in the World Hurdle at Cheltenham. The trip and going should be no problem for him and he is the best in on official ratings so at around 13/2 he'll be the one for me.

Good Luck,
Gavin.

Boylesports Handicap Chase....

Like the character Jesse in The Fast Show who used to come out of his shed wearing a pair of wellies , 'This week I 'ave mostly been studying Saturday's big race,' The Boylesports Handicap Chase.

Run over 2m 5f of the beautiful Gloucestershire countryside with a panoramic backdrop of the Cotswolds, I doubt there's a better racecourse in the country than Cheltenham, the undisputed home of National Hunt racing.

As I've said before Cheltenham has always been a lucky track for me and their last meeting didn't let me down as I confidently tipped Imperial Commander to land the Paddy Power Chase

He duly obliged and lines up again on Saturday to try and complete the Paddy Power/Boylesports Handicap Chase double, a feat achieved 4 times in the past.

His trainer is supremely confident of a repeat performance but what do the stats say?

Firstly, over 40 nine year olds or over have tried and failed to land the Boylesports Chase.

So it's a no sir to Yes Sir, a dishonourable discharge for Private Be and make a new plan, Stan.

10 of the last 11 winners posted a top 3 finish last time out (with 5 recording a victory.)

Sticking with that top 3 stat we lose; Abragante, Gold Medallist, Il Duce, Nation State, Notable D'estruval, Nozic, Oslot, Patman Du Charmil, Santa's Son, Silverburn, The Hairy Lemon and Three Mirrors.

Which leaves just 4 of the declared runners.

Nicky Henderson won this back to back in 2002-03 and his My Petra looks ready to run a big race. A 6 length winner of a Grade 2 Ascot Handicap last time out she has been raised 11lb for that win and with the ground possibly a bit on the soft side I prefer to look elsewhere.

Finger onthe Pulse's form received a big boost when the horse that beat him last time out, Noland, won yesterdays Grade 1 John Durkan Chase. A Cheltenham Festival winner this year, he too should prove a worthy opponent to the favourite.

Another Irish runner to make the shortlist and not without a chance is Scotsirish. He has been competing and running well in graded and condition races this season and now back in handicap company he looks weighted to give a good account of himself.

And finally the last of the trends quartet, Imperial Commander. A highly impressive winner of the Paddy Power, he had a whole host of this field well strung out behind him that day and if he turns up in the same kind of form he's definitely the one to beat.

I'm going to stick with him and I'm as confident as Mr Twiston-Davies that Saturday's race is his for the taking.

Scotsirish looks a fair each way price for those of you looking for an outsider with a chance.

------------

And finally, I have a fancy for tonight's meeting at Kempton which I shall pass on to you all. Valdan goes in the opener and looks to me to have a golden opportunity to get on the score sheet. It doesn't look a great race and I doubt there's anything in the field of the quality of Stand Guard who Valdan had the misfortune of running up against last time out. He's on my all weather list of horses to follow and I'm hopeful of a good run.

I'll be having a nice each way wager on this one but as always feel free to back it, lay it or ignore it!

Good luck,
Gavin.

The results.....

are in for the Nag3 Christmas Quiz but before I reveal the answers and prize winners here's a breakdown of the answers to question 5, How do you rate yourself as a tipster?

Of the 29 who answered the first 4 questions correctly

6 rated themselves as 1/10
3 as 2/10
5 as 3/10
2 as 4/10
4 as 5/10
3 as 6/10
4 as 7/10
1 as 8/10
0 as 9/10
0 as 10/10

However, 1 of you did say they were 9.9999 out of 10 and will therefore win both prizes for 9 and 10 and of course will be supplying the tips for the next few weeks!

Which just leaves me to say, what a modest bunch you all are!

Obviously after my selections failed to even pay for the Christmas Sprouts, let alone the Turkey, I'll have to rate myself with the majority as a 1/10.

With two more Saturday's to go before the holidays I'm determined to pay for, at the very least, someones Christmas dinner so I'll be running two more quizzes with a prize of a fully paid Lucky 15 on my 4 Saturday TV selections.

Stay tuned as this will include racing from Cheltenham which has proved over the years to be my happy hunting.

Okay, the answers....
1) Johhny Murtagh (who denied me a big payday when getting Mount Nelson up to collar Phoenix Tower on the line)
2) Ravens Pass (my horse of the year)
3) 9/4 (looks a big price now!)
4) David Pipe (Comply or Die was my 4th National winner in 5 years)



And the winners....

1) Diary -ANDY B

2) Calendar - TONY G

3) 7 in 1 Casino - IAN R

4) Diary - DAVE (who really should have been disqualified on the grounds of having an offensive email address!....Apparently he Loves Celine Dion.)

5) Placepot Ticket (Unfortunately a loser. Close but no cigar)

6) Placepot Ticket (Unfortunately a loser)

7) Calendar- BOB S

8) Poker Set - SHARON M

9) Lucky 15 (returns £6.36) - ANITA D

10) Lucky 15 (returns £6.36) - ANITA D

The winners have been notified but can you please let me have your address ASAP so I can post the prizes in time for Xmas.

-----------

I'll be back tomorrow,

Gavin.

Christmas Ante-post. Part 2....

In the second part of my look at the Christmas ante post lists I'll be reviewing

The Welsh National

Chepstow, December 27th

Again, a few trends to start with

- The last 10 winners were all 6 to 9-y-o's
- All 10 finished in the top 4 last time out
- All 10 had run either once or twice that season
- All 10 carried 11-3 or less

The last 9 winners were either French or Irish bred. All 45 horses aged 10 and over that have run have all been beaten. The last winner to have contested the Hennessey was Playschool in 1987.

Excuse the pun but I'm going to cut to the chase and simply give you what I think is the best value bet in the line-up.

Beat the Boys, to me, looks outstanding value at around the 20/1 mark and will be my ante-post bet for the Welsh national. His 3rd at Cheltenham on his seasonal reappearance looks good form and he just got tired on the run in losing second place in the process. He had previously beaten the winner of that race Joe Lively at the course and off just 9-12 looks the one for me. The trainer is very keen to run him and Twiston-Davies has been responsible for two winners in the last 11 years.

Each way advice: Beat the Boys 20/1

-----------

Now let's see if we can pay for the Christmas presents with a big fat juicy Saturday winner.

Or rather, I'm going to try something a bit different this week and attempt to get a Lucky 15 up with 4 TV race winners. If that fails then I'll be relying on the Sandown Placepot.

And if that goes down the pan then it'll be an orange, a chocolate bar and a tin soldier for my sons Christmas present this year instead of the Star Wars Lego that he really wants.

First up the Lucky 15....

1.50 Wetherby. The re-scheduled Fighting Fifth and I'm sticking with my original choice Punjabi. He beat Sublimity in the Champion Hurdle and again at the Punchestown festival in April and while the ground may be a bit testing for him, I'm hoping his class pulls him through.

If Wetherby should fall to the weather I will be replacing Punjabi with Master Minded.

2.00 Sandown. The Andy Turnell horse Cheating Chance has looked pretty good in two chase wins this season but he could struggle to give 6lb to the Nicholls 4-y-o Free World. A winner over these fences last time out I'm hoping he'll get our Lucky 15 off to a flyer.

3.05 Sandown. This usually goes to a horse carrying less than 10-13 that won last time out. The Paul Nicholls horse Tchico Polos ticks all the right boxes and is the Nag3 selection to hopefully get a treble up for the stable.

3.35 Sandown. The fourth horse in my Lucky 15 will be Leading Authority which should bump the payout up if he were to win. I tipped him last time out in a hot race at Wincanton where he looked like a horse in need of the run. He usually comes to himself at this time of the season and with the stable having a few winners recently he should run well.

And now the Sandown Placepot Perm....

4/6 - 9/16/17 - 2/5 - 4/6 - 3/6/7 - 4/11/15 = 216 bets

-----------

Friday Fun

As promised at the start of the week I'm going to be doing the Nag3 Christmas Quiz with some great prizes on offer.

It's open to everyone, it's free to enter and all you need to do is send the answers to these 5 easy questions to quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk.

I've put the 10 prizes in 10 boxes and which ever number you choose as the answer to question 5 will be the prize you can win. After entering you will receive an email response with the prize you're playing for.

The prize boxes will contain one of the following;

2 x £2 Lucky 15 on my 4 TV race horses today. (Could be worth lots, could be worth nothing!)

2 x 10p Placepot perms on today's Sandown card. (Could be worth lots, could be worth nothing!)

2 x John McCrirrick 2009 Racing Calendars.

2 x Channel 4 Racing Diaries.

1 x 7 in 1 Deluxe Casino Set (worth £70)

1 x 500 Chip Collectors Edition 'Hendon Mob' poker set (worth £80)

And now the questions....

1) Which jockey won this years Coral Eclipse?

2) Which horse won the Breeders Cup Classic?

3) What odds did Denman return in this years Cheltenham Gold Cup?

4) Which trainer won this years Grand National?

5) On a scale of 1 to 10 how good at picking winners would you rate yourself?

That's it, just send your answers to quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk to give yourself a chance of winning one of the prizes.

Good luck,

Gavin.

Christmas Ante-post. Part 1....

It's time to have an ante-post look at the 2 big Christmas races starting off with

The King George

Kempton, Boxing day

A few stats to get us started;

- No winner in the past 20 years was making their seasonal debut
- All of the last 12 winners had won a Graded Chase already (10 in a Grade 1)
- 11 out of the last 12 winners won last out.
- 6 to 9-y-o's have won 11 of the last 12 King George's

Experienced chasers usually win this race with no horse in the last 10 years having less than 8 career starts over the fences. Only one of the last 10 winners had run in novice company in the previous campaign.

Other things to note about the winners profile is that fancied horses usually do well with 7 out of the last 12 favourites winning and horses that race up with the pace have accounted for 11 of the last 12 winners.

So what does that tell us?

Well it certainly suggests that Kauto Star is the one to beat whilst horses like Air Force One, Tidal Bay and Imperial Commander have it all to do.

But if, as a lot of people are suggesting, Kauto Star is not the horse of old then we must take him on at his current price of around 6/4. I must admit he looked like he was struggling last time out before falling and probably wouldn't have beaten Snoopy Loopy or Tamarinbleu which isn't the kind of form needed to win a King George.

I can't have either of the Jonjo horses Alberta's run or Exotic Dancer as both seem to be struggling for form and I'll be looking elsewhere for the winner.

Our Vic finished second in this race last year on his seasonal debut and again he'll be trying to win this years race without a prep run. According to the trends this lack of a recent run and his age are against him and place prospects are the best he can hope for.

The other Pipe runner Tamarinbleu was tipped in the Racing Post earlier in the week which caused his price to collapse into 12/1. There doesn't seem to be any value in those kind of odds for a horse so comprehensively beaten at both the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals.

The horse that beat him at Aintree, Voy Por Ustedes is the horse that looks best equipped to exploit any chinks in the favourites armour and he looks to be crying out for this step up in trip. When he won at Liverpool he certainly wasn't stopping and this 3 miles around Kempton looks the perfect opportunity to test his stamina.

He's my idea of the race winner but I won't be rushing out to back him at the current odds of 7/2 as I can't see him being that much shorter come race day. Unless something should happen to Kauto Star he'll be about the same price then and I'm going to wait until race day to put my tenner on.

Of the others War of Attrition looks best of the larger priced horses and the 20/1 could look big come the off. If the race cuts up like it usually does he would definitely be a value each way shot and for those of you looking for an ante-post wager this looks the one to me. The only problem is that he is also entered for the Lexus Chase 2 days later and connections are undecided at the moment which race to go for. They'll probably stay at home as he has run placed in the Lexus for the past two years but I'll take my chance that he gets the green light for Kempton and have a little each way gamble.

Each Way advice: War of Attrition 20/1

----------

I'll be back tomorrow with a look at the Welsh National and present the Nag3 Christmas Quiz.

Gavin.

'Tis the season to be jolly....

Continuing the weekly Christmas theme I thought I'd have a look at a few gift ideas to help anyone struggling to find the perfect gift.....

Under a tenner

2009 Channel 4 Racing Diary £6.99

All the fixtures for 2009 with past big race winners and plenty of betting information.
Available here, by clicking on the Calendar Club and if you use the following code T11519 they'll also give you free Postage and Packing.

(If you need any calendars for next year, you won't find a bigger or better range than The Calendar Club and that code will work for any purchase.)

Clockwork Horse Racing Game £7.99

This fun horse racing game really is a must have toy! Simply slot the track together then wind up the horses and watch them race. The pack contains 2 horses for 2 players.

Available from Camp Gifts

£10 - £20

G1 Jockey £19.56

If you have a games console or if anyone in your family has one then you simply must have a go at this game. When I can get my son to stop playing his Star Wars Lego Game on MY wii console I love playing this game.

It's about as close to being a jockey as I'm likely to get at my age and it's great fun, especially on the wii. Choose from different horses, different tracks, different distances on either the Flat or Jumps and try to ride the best tactical race to win the event. Brilliant! With the Wii you use the joystick as the jockeys whip and luckily there's no stewards to haul you in for it's misuse.

You can buy it from Game or any good computer game retailers on the highstreet.

Interactive DVD: Frankie Dettori's Race Night. RRP £19.99

Interactive DVD racing game, presented by championship jockey Frankie Dettori. Select from one of ten famous racecourses, and Frankie will provide inside tips to improve your chances of picking a winning horse. All the fun of a day at the races but without losing your shirt!

Works with any DVD player with a remote control.

Amazon has it for £11.67 with free delivery, click here to see.

£20 - £50

Signed copy of Lester Piggott's Autobiography £29.99 + £3.10 P&P

A copy of old Stoneface's autobiography signed by the legend himself and described as in Mint condition.

Available here.

Nikon 10x25 Sportlite Binoculars (Silver) £48.93

You can't go racing without a pair of binoculars and these compact, lightweight ones are just the job. With 10x magnification you should have no problem picking out your colours as your horse brings up the rear.

Buy them online from Jessops

£50 - £100

Newmarket All Day Racing Tour. £84.07

The price is a strange amount but it looks like a cracking day out for any horseracing fan.

The morning includes a two hour tour of a Newmarket stables where you will get the chance to see the horses at close quarters. Then after time at the National Horseracing Museum it's off to the gallops, finishing up with an afternoon in the Members Enclosure where your expert guide will help you pick a winner!

Available from Buy a Gift.


Betting Bot £97.95


If you're looking for a bot to automatically place your bets while you nip off to the pub then you could do a lot worse than the BetbotPRO. Unlike most Bots on the market, it is available for a one off payment with no further subscription charges to pay.

Read the BetbotPRO sales page here


Feeling Flush? £100 +

Elite Racing Club Membership £185

Enjoy 12 months of racehorse ownership for a fraction of the normal cost. Probably the most famous of all the racing syndicates Elite Racing have seen their black and white silks carried to over 250 victories including Group 1 success.

There's a free weekly newsletter and the club organise various stable visits to see your horses in the flesh. They currently have 15 horses in training with various trainers including James Fanshawe, Paul Cole and Roger Charlton.

You can read all about Elite Racing Club here

And for when you win the Scoop 6.......

A 6 night Stay for the Dubai World Cup from £1750 p.p.

Horse Racing Abroad are the world leaders in organising racing holiday packages and this fabulous 6 night break for March 2009 includes;

• A 6-night stay using two different luxurious 5* properties
• A chance to take in an Arabian Nights Dinner!
• An Option for Breakfast with the Stars!
• Experience the race of Champions – The Dubai World Cup!
• Plenty of time to relax in the sunshine or shop in the souks!

See their website here.

----------

Tomorrow I'll be having a look at both the Welsh National and the King George to see if there's any value to be had in the ante-post betting.

Gavin.

I'm dreaming of a.....

....White Christmas?

Next on the list of popular yule time novelty markets is the Snow on Xmas Day betting.

According to the met office the last white Christmas was in 2004, when snow was widespread across Northen Ireland, Scotland, parts of Wales, the Midlands, north-east and far south-west England.

Most firms bet on a number of cities around the country and for it to be officially declared a White Christmas a single flake of snow has to fall on the relevant city's weather centre.

I have been doing some extensive research into long term weather forecasting and from what I can gather, even the experts can't really predict anything with a fair degree of accuracy past 5 days into the future. (Obviously, you could argue that they can't even predict anything 5 hours into the future!)

Not much help there then but it does highlight the fact that the bookies are as much in the dark as you, I or Michael Fish. They base their odds on previous years with the odds dramatically cut in their favour and of course to squeeze any value from amateur Weather Predictors.

Ladbrokes this year bet 2/1 Glasgow, 11/4 London, 4/1 Manchester, Birmingham or Liverpool which is particularly scrooge like and offers no value at all. Paddy Power go 7/2 Glasgow 5/1 London 11/2 Manchester or 6/1 Cardiff which, while a little better, is still a far cry from the days when 16/1 was freely available.

Having checked the relevant internet sites of The Met office, Metcheck and BBC Weather it appears that the cold weather we are currently experiencing will not last all month with temperatures increasing in England and Wales as Christmas gets closer. Apparently, for those of us South of the border, we will be experiencing a wet, rather than a white, Christmas.

As for those of you North of the border, it will probably be colder than down South but snow is not predicted to be falling come Christmas day.

Looks like a no bet to me.

------------

Paddy Power have various Xmas markets this year and for those of you who like a punt on the obscure here's a list of some of the betting available.....

Christmas Number 1 DVD!

1/3 Dark Knight 7/4 Mamma Mia 10/1 Wall-E 12/1 Bar

Christmas Number 1 Video Game !!

4/6 Call of Duty 5/1 FIFA soccer '09 8/1 Need for Speed 12/1 Bar

Christmas Number 1 Toy!!!

How obscure is that? Full details for all these markets available here.

----------

BBC Sports Personality of the Year

The 10 nominations for this years Sports personality have been announced with the program scheduled to be broadcast on the 14th December.

According to the betting it's basically a 3 way race with Lewis Hamilton up against two of our successful Olympians, swimmer Rebecca Adlington and cyclist Chris Hoy with 33/1 available about the 4th choice, boxer Joe Calzaghe.

It surprised me that Victoria Pendleton didn't make the final ten especially when Andy Murray did make the list without winning a Grand Slam event but I guess no one is ever going to agree on the final choices.

Personally, I think Lewis Hamilton will win the award this year but at odds-on I won't be backing him to do so.

Through the years of this Award ceremony racing drivers have always done well with a lack of personality seemingly no barrier to the likes of Nigel Mansell and two time winner Damon Hill.

Jackie Stewart, Sterling Moss and John Surtees were other F1 drivers to take the title and Lewis Hamilton can add his name to this illustrious list.

I'll be back tomorrow with a look at some racing related ideas for Christmas presents,
Gavin.

Xmas No.1.........

Today is the 1st of December, if you needed reminding, and the Christmas countdown has begun.

In our house this was heralded by my son bounding down the stairs at 6.30 this morning to open the first door on his chocolate Ben 10 advent calendar. Quite what a piece of chocolate in the shape of a mutant alien has to do with this time of year is anyones guess (and don't even get me started on feeding 5-y-o's chocolate at that time of the morning!)

What ever happened to pictures of teddy bears, rocking horses, stars and nicely wrapped presents building up the suspense for the big number 24 window complete with full nativity scene? I think the message of Christmas may have gone a little astray somewhere along the line.

Anyway, as I said yesterday and to get us all in the spirit of the season I'm going to take a fun look at a few of the novelty Christmas markets available.

First up is the popular, and highly coveted in the music business, race for the Xmas No.1 Single.

I remember back in my bookie days, Bob The Builder doing me a great favour by keeping Westlife off the Xmas Number 1 spot in 2000 and thus saving me a 4 figure payout (and no, it wasn't £10.25!!). All together now (and especially Dean McKeown)......Can we fix it? Yes we can!

So with tongue firmly in cheek, here is a light hearted look at this years main contenders....

X Factor Winner

A short priced favourite and in all probability the likely winner. Rumour has it that this year the winner will be singing Jeff Beck's Hallelujah and it has the makings of another Simon Cowell cash cow but where's the fun in backing 1/6 favourites?

Time to look elsewhere me thinks...

Terry Wogan & Aled Jones

Urrrghh! A remake of the Bing Crosby / David Bowie Xmas duet Drummer Boy it has all the hallmarks of a traditional attempt for the Number 1 spot. I'm sure a lot of Radio 2 listeners will be wetting themselves in anticipation of it's release but that won't include me, though it probably will include my dad! Current Odds - 11/2

Take That

Take two for Take That as they carry on riding the wave of 90's nostalgia. They didn't manage a Xmas number 1 the first time around and with their latest release Greatest Day, I doubt they will this time either. Current Odds - 16/1

Geraldine McQueen

Otherwise known as Peter Kay this 'comedy' character isn't half as funny as the comedian thinks it is and this is another song with no chance of being Number 1. Current Odds - 14/1

Ricky Hatton & Friends

I'm not sure just how many friends boxer Ricky will have left if he does release this festive offering but I'd like to bet on, not very many! Called Hi Ho Ricky Hatton, a version of Jeff Beck's classic Hi Ho Silver Lining, it hasn't a snowball in hells chance of making the top spot even with the likes of Noel Gallagher being involved. Current Odds - 40/1

Ruth Jones & Rob Brydon

If it were to be released this may be a live outsider. There are many online forums currently petitioning the record companies to release 'Islands in the Stream', the song they sang in the hit BBC comedy series Gavin & Stacey. As a novelty act it could get quite a lot of exposure. Current Odds - 50/1

Only Men Aloud!

Winners of the BBC TV show Last Choir Standing, Only Men Aloud are set to release their Xmas single in a mad dash to fully capitalise on their 10 minutes of fame. Only the Welsh will be buying this record and that won't get them the No.1 Xmas spot. Current Odds - 20/1

The Killers & Sir Elton John

Surely this is a worse joke than anything you would find in a Christmas Cracker. It seems there's no one Sir Elton won't team up with if the money's right and with a title of Joseph, Better You than Me this should prove the biggest Xmas turkey of the season. Current odds - 40/1

(Scooter vs) Status Quo

Scooter have sampled the Quo 'classic' Whatever You Want and while I'm sure there will be plenty of people who'll buy this sort of thing there won't be enough of them to get it to Number 1.
Current Odds - 20/1

Bob The Builder

Everyone's favourite handyman Bob The Builder, voiced by no-ones favourite actor Neil Morrissey, tries to recapture former glories with another stab at the festive pop charts. The song is Big Fish, Little Fish and I for one, can't wait. Current odds - 25/1

Michael Jackson

I mention him only because he ruined another of my betting coups when gaining the Xmas top spot in 1995. I had backed Mike Flowers Pops with their version of Wonderwall at 50/1 and everything was going to plan as the price plummeted to odds on when up popped the Prince of Pop with the truly awful Earth Song to deny me a nice payday. That year he had been in court and was looking to rebuild his career / reputation and what better way to do it than with the Number 1 song at Christmas. I don't even know if he's releasing a song this Xmas but I guess history could repeat itself. Current odds - 150/1

Leona Lewis

Previous X-Factor winner Leona Lewis could just throw a spanner in the works with this re-make of the great Snow Patrol song Run. It was never intended to be a single release but after she performed the song live on the X-Faxtor the record company was besieged by fans eager to snap it up. They bowed to public pressure and released it yesterday where it shot straight to the top of the I-Tunes download list.

It would have had more chance of the Xmas No.1 spot if they had released it next Sunday but it will almost certainly be Number 1 by then and it's just a case of whether it can hold on for two more weeks.

At 12/1 it's worth a £1 or two that she can and for a fun bet there's certainly worse 12/1 shots about.

For those of you who like to play it safe, you can get 3/1 in the betting without the 2008 X-Factor winner.

I'll be back tomorrow with some more festive markets,
Gavin.