'Tis the season to be jolly....

Before I start, I must apologise for the sporadic and rather brief postings last week but it's been a bit hectic at work leaving me with little time to write anything other than a few dodgy tips. Things should be a bit better this week and I'm hoping to bring you plenty of festive cheer as we enter the month of December.

With the countdown to Christmas underway here's what's in store for all you lucky readers...

Starting tomorrow and Tuesday I'm going to have a look at a few of the Christmas Speciality markets. The Xmas No.1 betting is one of my favourite novelty markets and one in which I've had some memorable coups. I think I may have another one lined up......

Wednesday's post will be devoted to finding that perfect racing Xmas present

Whilst on Thursday I'll be taking an antepost look at Boxing Day's King George Chase and also the Welsh National.

To round off the week, on Friday I'll be having a Xmas quiz with loads of fantastic prizes up for grabs and Saturday it's time to pay for Christmas with a big fat juicy Sandown winner.

'Tis the season to be jolly......

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Or not! I'm not going to dwell too much on the result of yesterday's big race but needless to say I was a bit cheesed off.

I hate getting beaten by rank outsiders and I really hate getting beaten by rank outsiders I backed last time out.....

Air Force One could well be an appropriate winner in the week of the American Elections but for me you just can't ignore Pipe at these meetings.
He has 2 runners, Abragante and Madison Du Berlais. The jockey bookings would suggest that the fore mentioned is the stable 1st string but I like the other one more and at around 14/1 he looks good value. He was last seen out when falling in the Grand National, behind stable mate Comply Or Die, and if that experience hasn't dented his confidence then I expect a very good run from him.

Regular readers may recall I wrote this exactly one month ago, when previewing an Ascot meeting. Air Force One finished a fine second whereas Madison Du Berlais ran no race at all.

Available at 66/1 yesterday morning means another big winner goes begging.

This fine sport of ours really does know how to kick a man when he's down. Oh well, onwards and upwards.....

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And finally, just to get you in the festive spirit a little horse racing joke.

Riding the favourite at Cheltenham, Tony McCoy is well ahead of the field. Suddenly he’s hit on the head by a turkey and a tub of nuts. He manages to keep control of his mount and pulls back into the lead, only to be struck by a box of Christmas crackers and a dozen mince pies as he goes over the last fence.
With great skill he manages to steer the horse to the front of the field once more when, on the run in, he’s struck on the head by a bottle of sherry and a Christmas pudding. Thus distracted, he succeeds in coming only second.
On dismounting he immediately goes to the stewards to lodge an objection on the grounds that he has been seriously hampered.

To the sound of a thousand groans,
Bye,
Gavin.

Newbury Saturday......

Some great racing today and most of it is on terrestial television, well Channel 4 anyway.

Here are the TV races....

2.05 Newb

A quick look at the trends for this race tells us....

- All of the last 12 winners of this race had finished in the top three of a Grade 1 hurdle
- The last 10 winners had all won a Grade 1 or 2 hurdle.

- 11 of the last 12 winners had won over 3 miles over hurdles
- 11 of the last 12 winners had run at the Cheltenham festival

8 were making their seasonal reappearance and the other 4 who had already run, all finished in the top 3 last time out. Five winners of the World Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival) have run here and finished 13111.
Historic won this as a 5-y-o in 2001 and Baracouda as a 9-y-o in 2004 and the rest were split between 6, 7 and 8-y-o's so age is of no great importance for this race.

With Baracouda winning as a 9-y-o and most winners making their seasonal reappearance it seems best to side with Inglis Drever who can win the race for the fourth consecutive year.

2.40 Newb

I had a look at this race earlier in the week and was very confident then about the chances of Air Force One. Nothing I have seen or read since has made me change my mind and my fingers are tightly crossed for a very good run.

3.00 Newc

An interesting 3m chase in which all 9 runners have a realistic chance.

The one I have sided with is Battlecry who has contested a lot of Grade 1 and Grade 2 chases in his career including a 3rd to Albertas Run at Cheltenham in the Sun Alliance as well as 2nd to Big Bucks at Aintree.


3.15 Newb

A competitive h'cap chase but I am going to stick with Yes Sir who I tipped a few weeks ago when winning at Wetherby. His departure at Cheltenham last time was very unlike him as he is usually a sound jumper but he might have been feeling the pressure in a hot race when he came down and I take him to get back into winning ways.

3.30 Newc

Here we have a past Champion Hurdler and 2 previous winners of this race amongst the field but they look vunerable to the younger generation of up and coming hurdlers. Punjabi and Tazbar are 2 very interesting younger rivals who could well be on there way to Cheltenham for the Champion if they show enough here and I take Punjabi to prove he is good enough.

3.45 Newb

An open looking running of the Gerry Feilden and one which has a very interesting runner in Prince Taime. Winner of all 3 of his races, including beating Ouzbeck at Warwick, and with form on the soft this could be another Newbury handicap hurdle winner for the Hobbs stable.

One possible danger at fairly good odds could be Harry Tricker.

4.00 Kemp

An AW flat race to finish proceedings today and after last weeks efforts you would probably be better off laying this rather than backing it.

General Eliott was beaten just 1 length when 4th to Eagle Moutain at Newmarket only 6 weeks ago and last time out finished a 1/2 length 2nd to Virtual, again at Newmarket. That is very smart form and if this was a turf race he would be a shortish priced favourite.

If he takes to this surface, his draw(12) doesn't hinder him and the form of his stable isn't against him he must go close. It's a lot of if's and but's but 7/2 is available to those of us who think he can overcome these handicaps.

Good luck,
Gavin.

Newbury Day 2

3 winners yesterday at 8/11, 11/4 and a very nice 14/1 wasn't too bad from 7 runners so I thought I'd have another go at today's Newbury card.

So here are my selections...

1..00

Not a great Novice hurdle by any standard and it should go to the Alan King horse, Mount Helicon. Far and away the best of these on the flat and a 600,000 guinea yearling. If he takes to hurdling he can win this race on the way to better things.

Likely 2nd favourite Art Trend didn't look the easiest ride before unseating at Warwick last time and wouldn't be on my list of horses to follow. For those of you looking to oppose the favourite Drum Major was fairly decent on the flat and has form on soft ground.

1.30

A very tight Novice Handicap Chase and plenty in with a shout.

I'm going to take a chance on Pressgang to recapture some of his previous form now he makes his debut over fences. 2nd in the 2006 Cheltenham bumper, he never reached those heights in three attempts over the smaller obstacles but I'm hoping this switch to fences will bring about a change of fortune and get his career back on track.

2.05

I'm never that keen on these Cheltenham handicap qualifiers as most trainers only have eyes for the final in March.

Having said that, Ballydub does look to have an outstanding chance to take this race for the in form P. Hobbs. His second at Cheltenham to Punchestowns reads very well and he is remarkably able to run off the same handicap mark here. The trainer won this race last year and Ballydub is a very confident choice to give him the double.

2.40

Only 4 runners but difficult to rule out any of them.

If you're doing the Placepot you'd have to put them all in but for the winner I'll be taking The Market Man. Nicky Henderson's horse has obviously had his problems but is a decent horse when he's right and in receipt of 7lb from Paul Nicholls's horse is the one for me.

3.15

Amateur rider handicap chases aren't on my list of favourite races either and this race looks a very hard race to fathom out. Purely because the trainer is knocking in the winners at the moment I'm going to go with Squires Lane for Andy Turnell.

3.45

National Hunt maiden hurdles don't make the list either, give me a 6f handicap sprint with 30 runners any day!

As I said yesterday, I don't like backing winning bumper horses running in 2m hurdle races and for that reason I'm going to avoid some of the fancied runners to side with another Turnell charge, Captain Americo. His 3rd in a very hot Wincanton novice last season looks good enough to take this race and along with the unraced Tony McCoy mount Mr Logistics, they will be my two against the field.

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The Friday Fun feature will be back next week.

Good luck,
Gavin.

Today's racing from...

Newbury

There's a fairly decent card at Newbury today and it's well worth a look at, so here are my thoughts.

12.25

Quite a few very promising novices come together for this race and there should be plenty of pointers for future events.

Over Sixty's second in a Cheltenham Grade 2 race sets the standard and is a worthy favourite but with easy Lingfield winner Mewstone, unbeaten NH Flat horse Tara Two Hills and winning hurdlers Easter Legend and Cornelia in opposition this is going to be tough for Alan Kings Mare.

Also in the field and the one I like for the opener is Nicky Hendersons Carole's Legacy. Winner of the Listed NH Flat race at the Aintree meeting she found one too good on her hurdles debut but over the extra distance of today's race I think she can show her true colours. I never like backing NH Flat winners over 2 miles when switching to hurdles so this 2m 5f should be the answer with Nicky Hendersons horses always worth following at this time of year.

12.55

Basically just 3 with a realistic chance and Pasco the one I like the most.

Straw Bear has never struck me as the type of horse to make a chaser and it wouldn't surprise me if he reverts to hurdles after tasting defeat here today. Rated 164 over hurdles, he is very unlikely to ever reach that mark over fences and Kempton's Christmas Hurdle beckons.

Pasco wasn't that far behind Straw Bear at Exeter and I think, as the more promising chaser of the two, he should be able to reverse the form with that horse today.

1.30

I've had Cavallini on my list of horses to back next time out since his staying on second in an Ascot handicap behind Busker Royal. I think he'll win a big handicap this season and even from top weight he looks a great bet to win this weaker race.

At around the 5/1 mark he undoubtedly looks the each way certainty(4th place guaranteed) and as my idea of the best bet on the card he will be carrying my cash .

2.05

The ultra impressive Tartak faces a formidable opponent in the shape of The Tother One and over this 3 mile distance I'm inclined to side with Paul Nicholls's charge. Probably not a race to get too involved with financially it should however prove a decent pointer towards Cheltenham come March.

2.40

Plenty of horses with doubts about them and a few looking to recapture former glories making this a difficult handicap to solve.

Bob Bob Bobbin is a winner waiting to happen off his present handicap mark but he needs to show a little bit more before I invest my hard earned on him.

It may pay to take a chance on McCoy to work his magic once again and get Alright Now M'Lad to concentrate on getting back to winning ways. With the trip and ground likely to suit and a recent run under his belt he looks value at around 8/1.

3.15

Kerry's Girl wouldn't be anywhere near the top of the pile in Nicholls's stable but she may be good enough to take this tricky handicap under able conditional Harry Skelton. Top weight, Hectors Choice is the obvious danger with the Hobbs stable taking the last three runnings of this race and should give the selection most to do.

3.45

Not a race that I would normally bother with but Nicky Hendersons horses are always worth noting in these bumpers and his Larks Lad will be my selection.

Good luck,
Gavin.

P.S. It seems from today's Racing Post that trainer Charlie Mann is as confident about Air Force One for Saturday's Hennessey as I am. The 13/2 is still available with Corals......

Looking forward not backwards........

I don't think last weekend will go down in either mine or a lot of your books as the best of the year and I'm already looking forward to this Saturday's Hennessey Gold Cup in an attempt to block out the bad memories. I'm also walking with a limp due to the excessive kicking of myself...

In hindsight (every punters best friend!) we could have just concentrated on the fancied horses but we were hoping a combination of fancied runners and outsiders would win us all a bumper payout. Unfortunately, this didn't go to plan and another good idea went down the pan.

The Scoop 6 attempt was undoubtedly this years dampest squib and the least said about it the better. However, I would just like to say a big thank you to all of those people who joined the syndicate and I can only apologise for our lack of success.

Oh, and last word on the subject. The person who emailed to tell me that the favourite was a cert, was always going to win the first and we should have just had him as a banker... I'd like to say, This was the kind of information that would have been useful before the race had started instead of at 2.30pm when the result was known!

In placing the bet it did become the largest stake I've ever put on in a betting shop and caused quite a stir in the local William Hill. The £5760 eclipsed my previous big punt of $10,000 to enter the 2007 World Series of Poker and though both bets produced nothing in return I would have to say I got a lot more enjoyment from the 1 week in Vegas playing poker with the world's best players than I did sweating over the results of 6 fiendishly difficult horse races.

Needless to say if the Scoop 6 rolls over to that extent in the future I won't be repeating this ordeal.

The WSOP though is a different matter and I'll hopefully be there again in 2009....

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With Kauto Star unseating Sam Thomas and Sizing Europe tasting defeat the previous weekend our Ten to Follow lists aren't looking too good either.

Still at least we have a long way to go in that competition and there's plenty of chances to pick up some points in the next few weeks.

According to today's Racing Post the joint leaders of the TTF have 7 winning horses from their list of 10 which at this stage of the competition is quite an achievement.

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And so onto the

Hennessey Cognac Gold Cup Chase

I think this race is worth looking at this early in the week because there are some very strong trends for this contest and even at this stage we can narrow the field down to just a few.

In the last 12 runnings of this race

- All 12 had finished 1st or 2nd in their last run
- All 12 had won at least 2 of their last 4 runs over fences
- All 12 had raced no more than 11 times over fences
- All 12 winners were aged 6 - 9.
- All 12 winners had won a chase at Class 2 or higher
- All 12 winners had won a race at between 3m - 3m4f

As I said, some very strong trends.

Not many 5-y-o's have lined up for this race and it may be unfair to disqualify Big Bucks on grounds of his age but it is worth noting that two of the three 5-y-o's that did contest this race were trained by Paul Nicholls and both pulled up. The other 5-y-o, Stormez, finished last for Martin Pipe.

Which leaves us with just Air Force One and a couple of other Paul Nicholls horses namely, Dear Villez and Ornais.

You could make a case for backing any one of the three but with the Charlie Mann stable absolutely flying at the moment Air Force One looks a great bet to uphold the recent stats for this race. At around 13/2 he will be confidently carrying my money in an attempt to reclaim last weekends losses.

Good luck,
Gavin.

The grand unveiling....

Here it is guys and girls (there are now plenty of the female gender) the moment you have all been eagerly waiting, it's our final perm for today's Scoop 6.

I doubt anyone will agree with all our choices and there will be plenty of horses you fancy that we have ommitted. There will also be horses we have included that you won't have picked yourself but the three of us have been taking this very seriously and I can assure you that we have not taken this task lightly. We've included a few outsiders in the hope of a bonanza payout.

With our own money at stake as well we have been working non-stop since 11am yesterday to narrow each race to a managable number of runners and this is what we have come up with.

One final point, as I have been stressing all week these are very, very tough races and it wouldn't be the biggest surprise to me if it rolled over once again

Drum roll please...........

2.10 Lingfield

A really tight race with the two outsiders for this race finishing 1st and 2nd in this race last year! Any of the 10 runners really could win this heat and we even discussed including all 10 runners to get us off to a flyer but finally we got it down to these 6;

Atlantic Story. Has to be included with his excellent AW record and with Ryan Moore an interesting booking.
Ebraam. Very consistent and the step up in trip should suit him well.
Markab. From his draw he should get the lead and be hard to peg back. A 5lb rise for his last easy win seems quite fair.
My Gacho. A bit to find with Markab but won very well last time out over C & D.
Swift Gift. Has won on Polytrack and has been running very well all season in some tough races. The return to the AW should suit him well.
Capricorn Run. Last years winner, down in the weights and an outsider with a chance.

2.40 Lingfield

6/1 the field says it all. We're going with 5 but I would prefer to have had 10 shots at this race. Here are the 5.......
Jenny Jerome. Luca Cumani will have her ready for her AW debut.
Izzibizzi. Looked a good horse on Polytrack before disappointing at Great Leighs. With more pace in the race today she would have a great chance to bounce back to form.
Miss Brown To You. From her draw should be able to get the lead and could follow up her debut AW win last time out.
Victoria Reel. Top weight but generally consistent and a winner on Polytrack. Hoping the step up to a mile will help her get back in the winners enclosure.
Naughty Frida. Dual Polytrack winner who didn't have the race run to suit last time.


2.45 Haydock

The switch to the jumping code doesn't make this next leg any easier but we've narrowed it down to the following 4;
Osako D'Airy. The obvious choice and the most likely winner given the connections.
Gold Medallist. Matt's very sweet on this one's chances and we're both happy to go with him.
I Hear Thunder. On a nice handicap mark and has two recent seconds in the form book.
Rambling Minister. A 4th to Cloudy Lane last year is excellent form and should come on for his re-appearance.

3.20 Lingfield

Another super tough race but one in which I really fancy Baharah. The Butler yard have dominated this race over the years and with this filly look to have another likely winner. Hayley Turner gave her a great ride last time and hopefully the step up in trip will be within her compass.
I don't think we can leave Bronze Cannon out and Matt and I also like the look of Philatelist.

Grand Passion has been reluctantly left out.

3.30 Huntindon

The inclusion of this raced has not proved very popular with the pro-punters and I can see why. A low grade handicap hurdle over 3m 2f wouldn't be everyone's idea of a good betting heat but something has to win it and we like the chances of;

House of Bourbon. Well supported and ran well on his British debut to finish 4th at Fontwell. In a race that won't take much winning he could be good enough.
Millards Lad. Very well in on chase figures for his handicap hurdles debut and is a very interesting runner
Lowe Go. Matt and Gary both tipped this big outsider and is included as a Scoop buster!
Acosta. Won easily last time out and we're hoping the 12lb rise isn't too much.


3.50 Lingfield

Three non-runners make this a tiny bit easier and, if we make it this far, we'll be cheering on the two fancied horses, Ceremonial Jade and Prohibit.

Swiss Franc would have been included if we had any money left!

2/3/4/5/7/10
1/2/5/8/10
4/9/11/16
5/8/9
4/7/10/13
4/8 = 2880 bets or £5760

We raised £4890 with the syndicate and with Matt's £200 this would leave us £690 short.
I'm going to increase my stake in the bet to cover this difference and this is the bet that will be placed.

PLEASE DO NOT SEND IN ANY MORE MONEY. THE SYNDICATE HAS CLOSED.

Best of luck to us all,
Gavin.

Scoopmania....

Just a quick post to let you know what's happening with the Scoop 6.

We here at Nag Towers have been up to our eyes in form books all afternoon and have been trying to solve 6 of the hardest races since...well.....last Saturdays Scoop 6 races!

It's taking a bit longer than we thought simply because they are very, very tough to solve. In the first race alone you'd need 10 selections to be sure of getting through and that's the easiest looking race of the 6!

My head hurts and I'm pumped up on Red Bull and Nurofen but we are getting close to the end result. We're going to watch the Morning Line and read the latest in tomorrows Racing Post before publishing the final bet.

What I can tell you is...

We have a fighting fund nearing £5000 and at the moment the perm will look similar to 5x4x5x3x4x2=2400 bets (or £4800).

and something the three of us are all agreed on, is that we will be banking on Ceremonial Jade and Chief Editor in the last.

The final perm and all the selections will appear here after the 9am deadline, for syndicate membership, has passed.

Back to the form book,
Gavin.

P.S. Any one sending money after 9a.m. tomorrow will not be accepted in the syndicate and their contributions refunded.

Super Scooper.....

Hello guys and girls (thanks to Sam, Elizabeth and Vivian for addressing the female imbalance) and welcome to another Scoop 6 special update.

I can tell you that as of 8am this morning the syndicate currently stands at 108 members and the pool of money available for our perm is up to £3310.

The Tote have yet to announce the full line-up of the 6 races that will make up the Scoop 6 but it is looking likely that there will be 3 races from Lingfield on the All Weather. The other 3 races will be announced after the 11am declaration stage for the NH race meetings.

It's not an ideal situation as time is against us but once they have been announced I'll be having a team talk with Matt and Gary and hopefully be back at around 9pm tonight with the grand unveiling of our perm selections.

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Also, if there are any independent bookmakers in the Cardiff area who have a Tote Direct terminal and who would welcome taking our perm please get in touch with me.
I am looking for a cut of the commission this bet will generate so it would enable me to waive all the syndicate members Paypal fees.
You can contact me at gavinpriestley@aol.com


Right, time to get started with a first look at the form for those Lingfield races....

Bye for now and the very best of luck to us all,
Gavin.

Scoop 6 syndicate update....

Thanks guys (no girls yet as far as I can make out) for the contributions to the fighting fund. As of 8am this morning we have had 63 contributors making a pool of £1275. With my £500 and Matts £200 we're just about at the £2000 mark.

I know it's a lot of money and it will pay for a very nice perm attempt but I think it's important to be realistic about our chances. We should all remember....

- As the single stake with the Scoop 6 is £2 per line this effectively doubles your perm before you start. By this I mean, picking 3 horses in each race is 729 bets (3x3x3x3x3x3) but will cost £1458.

- To do 4 horses in each race would be over £8000! and 5 a race is more than £30,000!!

- Tote Scoop 6 expert 'The Squirrel' apparently placed a £60,000 perm last Saturday without success which, I think, proves just how hard it is to win.

- The Tote will be picking the 6 toughest races and they will most likely all be handicaps. They have a vested interest in making sure the bet rolls over or at the very least has just one winner. The dream result for them is for any successful punter to win more than the National Lottery winner so I doubt we'll be seeing the Betfair Chase (with Kauto Star) included in the Scoop6 scheduled races.

- Just one shock winner in any of the races could scupper our bet, it could happen in any of the races and could just as easily occur in the first race as the last. Hopefully it won't happen at all but I think it's best to be aware of this possibility.

I mention all of this not as an excuse should the bet go down but to make sure everyone knows the difficult task we face and not to send any money they cannot afford to lose. Please bear this in mind if you decide to join in our syndicate.

What I can promise you though, is that we here at Nag Towers will all be trying very hard to pick the right horses and give us all a good shot at the £5 million.


It is all very exciting and I really hope we have lots to shout about come late Saturday afternoon.

I'll be back tomorrow with another update and once we have the 6 races the Tote have decided upon I will write a bit about the strategy we will be using to try and crack the Scoop6.

The very best of luck to us all,
Gavin.

P.S. Many thanks for all the comments and good wishes, they are much appreciated.

Scoop 6 Saturday syndicate......

Scoop 6 Rollover

I'm sorry to keep banging on about the Scoop 6 but with all these big money rollovers it really is worth mentioning just how good a bet it now is. The Tote are predicting a £5 million prizepool this weekend and with that kind of money on offer it has to be worth £2 of any ones money.

I'll definitely be having a go again and it seems a few of you have also caught the Scoop 6 bug.

In fact I've had a couple of people enquire as to whether we could get some sort of syndicate together with readers putting up a fiver, tenner or whatever and then placing a larger perm to see if we can crack the bet and scoop the estimated £5m pot.

Well, in theory I'd be more than happy to go along with this but there are quite a lot of things that are against us not least of which is the problem of time. So I think if anyone is interested in being a part of any Nag3 Scoop 6 syndicate then the following would have to apply.......

- I will be doing my own perm and laying out about £400-£500. This could form the basis of any final syndicated Scoop 6 bet with any additional contributions allowing this perm to be expanded to include further selections in each race.

- The Nag3/Geegeez combined brains, that's myself, Matt and my brother Gary, will pick the selections and I will endeavour to post the intended perms by 9pm Friday evening.

- This post will include a number of different amounts for perms and depending on the number of subscribers we get we'll use the appropriate perm. I'll also include reserves in case we have any non-runners.

- If you would like to be a part of the syndicate simply send your contribution to my Paypal account any time before 9am Saturday 22nd November. The minimum amount is £10 but can be any amount greater in multiples of £10. You MUST pay any Paypal fees.

- My Paypal account is gavinpriestley@aol.com

- You will be paid the % of the winnings your contribution accounts for.
Example: If the perm costs £1000 and you pay £10 then you will get 1% of any winnings (1% of £5m is £50,000)

VERY IMPORTANT PLEASE READ

- Due to Paypal fees the minimum contribution will have to be £10. The Paypal fees will be deducted from your contribution or you can use the option to pay the fees when you send the money.

- All contributions must be made by 9am on Saturday to allow me time to place the bet.

- An official Paypal notification email confirming that your payment has cleared before 9am Saturday 22nd November will be needed to claim any winnings. Any monies sent after 9am will be refunded.

- No Paypal E-Cheque payments please. The money must have cleared my account by the deadline to entitle you to a share.

- I'm sorry but Paypal is the only payment method I will accept.

- I will post the Final Perm on this Blog by the 1st race and all contributors will be notified by email.

- Any winnings will be paid as soon as the Tote make their payouts.

If you think this could be of interest to you please post a comment below (simply click on the highlighted word comments next to the Facebook link) or email me at gavin@nag-nag-nag.co.uk.

Obviously, by registering an interest you are under no obligation to participate.

Good luck,
Gavin.

How to win on the Scoop 6....

I was quietly reading my Racing Post yesterday morning whilst munching on my well known brand of breakfast cereal when all of a sudden things went Snap, Crackle and Splutter.

What had caused me to spray my Rice Krispies across the breakfast table and leave a look of bemusement on the faces of the rest of the family?

Quite simply that Betfair were going 5/4 that the Scoop6 would not be won! Having made it a 2/5 shot in my post the night before it was undeniably a golden opportunity and one I wasn't going to let slip by.

So after quickly clearing up the mess and firing up the laptop I availed myself of this incredible gift and stood myself to win a shade over a monkey. It's not every day you get the chance to back 2/5 favourites at 5/4!

This covered my Scoop6 perm for the afternoon (if I wasn't going to win it I hoped everyone else would fail too) and paid for my £100 each way on Imperial Commander.

I managed the first two legs of the Scoop without much problem and thankfully this included the Paddy Power winner. It all went belly up after that but with no one managing to find all 6 winners and a massive rollover for next weeks Scoop6 it was a good day all round.

I still can't believe that there were people willing to lay odds against somebody predicting the winners of 6 highly competitive handicaps. I mean, the Tote didn't re-arrange the TV racing schedule just for the fun of it. With 6 relatively fancied horses winning the respective 6 races it just goes to show how hard winning £2 million really is nowadays.

A predicted £4 million could be up for grabs next week and I for one will be trying to win at least a share of it.

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Today is the last day of what has been an eventful Cheltenham meeting and I'll be playing up my winnings with a couple of bets later on...

2.20 Chelt

I had planned on making Ashkazar a very strong fancy for this race but as he is a late withdrawal it looks like it's back to the drawing board.

It does look a very classy handicap and for me Aigle D'or is just to short to be value dropping back in trip so I will be looking elsewhere for the winner. After yesterday's disasters Paul Nicholls will be looking to get back on the scoresheet and his Rippling Ring would be high on anyone's list. He'll be a lot fitter today after his seasonal bow and should run well.

2004 race winning trainer, Paul Nolan runs two and anyone looking for an outsider to back could do worse than either of his runners, Cuan Na Grai and Mudslinger.

Another outsider with a chance comes from the in form Hobbs yard. The trainer has won this race twice before and his horse Motorway will certainly appreciate the going much better than others in this race.

The one I will be backing though is the other David Pipe runner Mamlook. Originally the stable second string, but certainly no back number, he ran two great races on the flat this summer and fitness is not an issue. He was a fairly decent juvenile hurdler, has won on the soft, won a good Ascot handicap last year and off a mark 7lb higher should give a good account of himself.

2.55 Chelt

Another big field handicap hurdle but one which should get Paul Nicholls and Super Foreman on the scoresheet. He was making big noises about the chances of this one in his Racing Post column yesterday and the form of his comeback run has a very solid look to it. That third to Champion Hurdle prospect Crack Away Jack at Chepstow should be good enough to win this race and he is a confident choice for the 2.55 race.

Good luck,
Gavin.

Attempt the impossible.....

There's only one thing on my mind today and that, dear readers, is the Scoop 6.

Matt has covered the main talking points of the first days action from Cheltenham in his excellent geegeez blog so this leaves me free to concentrate solely on trying to scoop the cash.

With an estimated £2 million up for grabs I've just got to have a go and if anyone else is chancing their arm today then the very best of luck to you (because you'll certainly be needing it!)

Here are my thoughts for the 6 races that make up the bet.....

2.00 Chelt

Mmmm, 11 runners with only one that can be truly discounted, not the easiest of starts! As my budget doesn't quite stretch to 10 in the first leg I'm going to have to try and cut it down a bit.

Firstly and reluctantly I'm going to dismiss the topweight Halcon Genelardais as he may find lugging the weight in this ground too much first time out. Comply or Die has next April as his main target and may not be fully wound up for this so he's out of my perm. Next to go is Simon whose jumping may not be up to this tough test and whose trainer is out of sorts at the moment.
Parson's Legacy doesn't really like the soft ground and with his 6lb penalty may struggle to repeat his last run whereas Flintoff isn't the most reliable horse in this field and will be left out of my calculations in the hope he has another off day. Dom D'Orgeval is very well handicapped on his novice form but after two disappointing runs last season has to be left out. Karanja was a very good hurdler and started his chasing career with an excellent win at Taunton but after falling in a small field next time out at odds of 2/11 he now has it all to prove. This race is a tough test for one so in-experienced and I'll be looking elsewhere.

Which leaves my dreams of a big win resting with Opera Mundi, Joe Lively and Beat the Boys. I do like the chance of Opera Mundi who, though he pulled up in last years Scottish National, did win first time out last season. That victory was under topweight on soft ground at Haydock so he can win when fresh and coming from the all conquering Nicholls yard he must go close.

Selection: Opera Mundi

2.35 Chelt The Paddy Power Gold Cup.

20 runners and this time I wouldn't like to rule any of them out!

However, I do have a real fancy in this race and that is Nigel Twiston-Davies's Imperial Commander. At the start of last season he looked a serious racehorse that was going places with two convincing wins both gained here at Cheltenham. Sent off at odds-on to make it a Cheltenham Novice Chase hat-trick he lost a shoe in his next race and trailed home last of 4. Given a break since then he gets in here off a lowish weight. With the ground and course no problem and the trainer having a great season so far, if his jumping stands up he is my idea of a great bet.

The dangers are everywhere but the main picks for me would be: the trends horse, Don't Push it, the likely favourite Silverburn, Nicky Henderson's pair Barbers Shop & Fleet Street and an outsider with a chance Sky's the Limit.

Selection: Imperial Commander

2.55 Weth

A 14 runner handicap chase with an 11/2 favourite and the outsider at just 20/1. Winning £2m just isn't as easy as it used to be!

I give leading chances to Leading Man, Rakalackey, Killard Point and Super Road Train. I could also include Laertes and Ocean Du Moulin in that list and would hope the winner (but certainly wouldn't guarantee it) is amongst that half dozen.
Overall preference is for Rakalackey and Super Road Train.

Selection: Rakalackey

3.10 Chelt

Another handicap, another big field and another headache.

Fair Along always runs well here but I think the trip is going to prove too far for him today. Diablo has some good novice form and looks reasonably weighted whilst Pride Of Dulcote must rate highly as does The Sliotar who now runs for the Pipe stable.

My selection though goes to Ardalan at around 16/1 he looks a great e/w bet and he may just sink a few of the Scoop 6's that will be left at this stage. The trainer was highlighted in yesterdays Racing Post as having an excellent strike rate in Cheltenham handicaps and duly obliged with a 28/1 winner and 33/1 second!! Take the 16's as this horse will probably be punted!

Selection: Ardalan 16/1 advised

3.25 Weth

If anyone gets their Scoop 6 this far, hats off to them!

It may pay to play safe with the unbeaten Knockavilla who looks well treated, is a C&D winner already and could be a good thing in a competitive handicap.

Ela Re, European Dream and Edas look most likely to benefit if the favourite doesn't run to form.

Selection: Knockavilla

3.45 Chelt

Holy moly- 6 handicaps!! Something tells me the Tote are trying to get this bet to roll over again.
I think I'll screw my Scoop6 perm up and buy some Lottery lucky dips instead because surely no one can possibly pick these 6 winners? Can they?
Scoop6 expert 'the squirrel' reckons he may be investing a 6 figure sum in the hope of winning the pool tomorrow but I doubt even this mega-perm would guarantee getting the bet up.

If I was still in my betting shop I'd bet 2/5 Not won 7/4 Won.

Anyway, the final race and 20 runners! Again you need at least 20 to be certain of the winner with my final shortlist being Busker Royal & Prince Du Buery from Hendersons yard, Hernado Royale, Weather Front, Keki Buku and Hivikos from Nicholls yard. The last named will be my main selection but it's definitely more in hope than anticipation.

Selection: Hivikos

----------

This is the perm I will be trying with today and, as I said last week, if it comes up there will be no more Nag Posts for a while as I'll be living it up in a high rollers suite at Caesers Palace, Las Vegas.

4/6/10 - 5/7/16 - 5/12 - 6/12 - 8/12 - 8/10


Good luck,
Gavin.

A trip down memory lane.......

At last a meeting to look forward to with 3 days of top racing fare run at the best NH course in the country.

I love this meeting almost as much as Martin Pipe, who always seemed to manage a winner or two (or three, or four...) and it was the 1988 Mackeson (as the Paddy Power Chase used to be called) that saw me visit Cheltenham Racecourse for the first time.

Funnily enough, I was actually born in Cheltenham and lived less than a mile from the course for the first 7 years of my life but racing never appealed to me then (it wasn't until my 8th birthday that I discovered gambling!). My dad was a bookie and I guess it was inevitable that I would end up going down that same road (or should that be slippery slope....)

Maybe that's why Cheltenham has always been a lucky track for me as some of my biggest bets and most of my biggest wins have come there.

The biggest odds winner I've ever backed was when Nortons Coin won the Gold Cup in 1990. I had taken odds much bigger than the 100/1 SP with Ladbrokes to a tenner each way and watching the race went from 'hey he might get a place here' to 'oh my god, he's going to win' to getting totally bladdered in the Parrot Pub that night. Happy days!

Other memorable wins included Unsinkable Boxer in 1998, Charter Party in the 1987 Gold Cup and my largest ever bet when Monkerhostin won the 2003 Coral Cup. All in all a great track for me and hopefully it's going to continue that way.

Anyway I digress, back to this weekend..........

Although I'm not overly confident about Friday's racing I do have a great bet for the Paddy Power Chase and will be back tonight to give you all a chance to grab the odds before the big plunge on Saturday morning.

Until then here are a few for today (as always back them, lay them or ignore them.)

1.15 Chelt

3m H'cap chase with amateur riders and 18 runners on soft ground, you could be forgiven for thinking 'you must be joking' but I actually quite like the look of one of the runners.

Millards Lad ridden by B J Toomey claiming 5lb looks a decent bet, he's 2 from 4 on the going and 3 from 4 at the 3 mile trip. Along with topweight King Harald a festival winner here a couple of seasons ago, Hoopy the likely favourite and Aggie's Lad with the very talented Nina Carberry on board make up my shortlist plus my selection of course.

And that one is The Luder, who is a massive price but is not without a chance . He is 3 from 4 at the trip, won 25% of his races and the ground will be no problem. He had some good form last year and that would give him every chance in this race. His first run this year was in a very competitive handicap and if that race has blown away the cobwebs I can see a big run at a big price.

Selection: The Luder 40/1 each way.

1.50 Chelt

American Trilogy, Golan Way and Hunters Ploy all put their 100% records on the line but I think Pipes horse Leo's Lucky Star, who has won 4 of his 14 hurdle races, looks the one to be on. Recent Aintree winner and likely favourite American Trilogy has solid claims but there is a big danger that his Aintree form and lack of hurdling experience may be against him here.

2.25 Chelt

A 4 horse race that is really only a 2 horse contest between Ornais and Battlecry. Battlecry might just be the one to be on as he gets 7lb from Ornais.

3.00 Chelt

These Cross Country Chases are not my favourite type of races but I will be amazed if E Bolger doesn't walk away with the winner again. Both Garde Champetre and L'Ami have outstanding chances and on official ratings they along with Hoo La Baloo are way ahead of the rest but because L'Ami is in receipt of 10lb from the other 2 he will be the selection.

PP perm
5-11-12
1-4
1-3
3-13
8-16
2-5 = 96 bets.

-------------

Friday Fun

So let's have a look at Nortons Coin winning that Gold Cup. He may have been the biggest priced winner in the history of the race but as I said it wasn't that big a shock to me....




Good luck,

Gavin.

The final lists.......

Ten to Follow Syndicate

Here are the final 5 lists that will make up our syndicate entry. For those of you who expressed concern about the absence of Sizing Europe from the original list of bankers, I think you will be pleased to see that it was nominated 3 times by our team of helpers and now features in 3 of the 5 lists.

I've paid the fees, registered our team name as NagNagNag Blog and now it's just a question of waiting, watching and hoping....

List 1

1225 Kauto Star
1284 Master Minded
1459 Tidal Bay
1224 Katchit
1011 Albertas Run
1130 Elusive Dream
1415 Sizing Europe
1412 Silverburn
1483 Voy Por Ustedes
1366 Petitfour

List 2

1225 Kauto Star
1284 Master Minded
1459 Tidal Bay
1224 Katchit
1011 Albertas Run
1130 Elusive Dream
1026 Ashkazar
1105 Cousin Vinny
1350 Our Vic
1204 Inglis Drever

List 3

1225 Kauto Star
1284 Master Minded
1459 Tidal Bay
1224 Katchit
1011 Albertas Run
1130 Elusive Dream
1100 Cooldine
1105 Cousin Vinny
1046 Big Bucks
1442 Tatenen

List 4

1225 Kauto Star
1284 Master Minded
1459 Tidal Bay
1224 Katchit
1011 Albertas Run
1130 Elusive Dream
1483 Voy Por Ustedes
1350 Our Vic
1415 Sizing Europe
1153 Free World

List 5

1225 Kauto Star
1284 Master Minded
1459 Tidal Bay
1224 Katchit
1011 Albertas Run
1130 Elusive Dream
1415 Sizing Europe
1064 Breedsbreeze
1326 Noland
1105 Cousin Vinny

Many thanks to Barry, Vikash, Charles, Sean, Ian, Adrian, James, Anita, Chris and John for their extra time and their selections.

The best of luck to us all......

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Little Acorns Low Liability Formula

And now a little later than planned here are the final results for the Little Acorns Formula.

The results since the last update continue much the same way as it has been performing throughout the trial, i.e. very nicely. It did register a 4 horse cycle, which was the highest it has got to since the very first run of 5 winners, (or losers for the purposes of this system) but managed the all important Loser to reset the cycle back to 1...

c/f +£220.60

1 According To Pete £10 @ 1.72 won thus lost -£7.20 = +£213.40
2 Kerada £20 @ 1.98 won thus lost -£19.60 = +£193.80
3 Jordans Light £30 @ 1.80 won thus lost -£24.00 = +£169.80
4 Indian Groom £50 @ 1.55 lost thus won +£47.50 = +£217.30

1 Breedsbreeze £10 @ 1.80 won thus lost -£8.00 = +£209.30

This gives us the following stats for our trial-


49 selections
23 winners
26 losers


for a profit of £209.30

which I think you'll agree are pretty impressive when you remember that this system sets out to lay horses between the odds of evens and 1/2.

So what do I make of it all?

Well, firstly the negatives. The price is a little on the high side for such a simple system and you may feel that you're not getting that much for your money when you receive the download. For those wanting an elaborate formula that takes an in depth look into each selection to lay, this system won't be for you.

But, as with most systems of this type, the major problem that the Little Acorns may have is the progressive staking it uses. It operates on an 8 loser (or winners as this is a Lay system) cycle that increases your stake for every loser you have. If you reach 8 losers on the trot this will have a major affect on your bank.

The systems author reckons that this is only statistically likely once every 18 months and therefore shouldn't wipe out your bank but if you were to experience such a loss early on when using the Little Acorns it could leave you chasing losses for quite a while before you start to make a profit.


Which leaves the positives. First up is it's simplicity which may appeal to quite a few layers. The horses are easily identifiable and a quick look at the betting on Betfair will have you with all the days qualifiers in less than 10 minutes.

The manual fully explains all you need to know and lays out the staking progression in easy to follow steps. The selections themselves seem to get beaten quite regularly which is always good when you're laying them to lose and they get beat at nice prices too. You should see a steady increase to your bank right from the off.

Well named, The Little Acorns uses a small stake in relation to your bank to slowly grow the profits we're all looking for.

It provides regular horses to lay with many days offering more than one selection which gives plenty of chances for those needing more frequent opportunities to increase your bankroll.

Oh, and they're giving away a free pair of binoculars too!

Conclusion

If you are disciplined and have the patience to follow the formula very strictly then this is a very good Lay system. It provides plenty of easily identifiable horses that get beat fairly regularly and as I have said before, there's something quite satisfying about laying odds on losers. It has performed very well during my trial and the Little Acorns has shown the steady growth to my bank that it promised.

The high price and the slight doubt in the back of mind that the 8 horse losing sequence could happen at any moment leads me to give the Little Acorns Low Liability Formula 7 out of 10.

A very respectable score but if it were 1/2 the price then I would be awarding it 8/10.

You can see the sales page here;

Little Acorns

Of course, as with all systems reviewed here at Nag3 there is a full 30 day money back guarantee should you feel the Little Acorns is not for you.

-----------
Good luck,
Gavin.

10 to follow.....

TEN TO FOLLOW SYNDICATE

The deadline has passed and in fairness to all those who have registered in time, no further members will now be accepted... sorry!

Not surprisingly Kauto Star was by far and away the most popular banker with 9 out of 10 Nag3 readers preferring him. He will head our list along with these 5 others;

Masterminded
Tidal Bay
Katchit
Albertas Run
Elusive Dream

Denman was the 2nd most selected horse but I'm going to make an 'executive' decision on this one due to a slight change in the TTF rules this season.

The TTF powers-that-be have instigated an additional time period in February to allow an extra two horses to be added to your list with the proviso that your best 10 horses from the 12 will count from then on.

As Denman is still on the sidelines after his heart operation I think it may be prudent to leave him out and review the situation come February and then, if all is well with him, add him to our list. I hope you all agree with this decision.

Okay, on to the other horses needed to complete our lists.

I have now emailed some of you to see if you wish to pick an additional 2 horses from the TTF 500 and I would ask that you send your selections back as soon as possible or let me know that you do not wish to pick them so I can find somebody else to select our extra horses.

You are free to pick whichever two horses you like and I will not interfere with or influence in any way the selections you decide upon. Except to say of course not to choose any of the 6 bankers we already have!

If I haven't heard back from the chosen few by Tuesday teatime I will have to move on to the next person as the closing deadline is quite near and hopefully I will be able to enter our lists and publish them in time for Wednesday's Blog.

Next, the numbers.....

By Midnight yesterday there were 144 registered members of the syndicate to which I will add myself, Matt and Gary to make 147.

As I said in my original post there is nothing to pay and everyone is entitled to an equal share of any prize money won, so that will be 1/147th for all those mathematically minded amongst us.

With £700000 as the guaranteed 1st prize this should ensure a best case scenario payout of just under £5000 per man or woman should our list prevail come April.

Which just leaves me to say Good Luck to us all and hopefully, at the very least, we can have a bit of fun following our horses through the Winter...

Gavin.

I couldn't bring myself to post anything this morning as I was still suffering from The Nags after show party, where yet again the biggest names in racing were noticeable by their absence. More fool them because a great time was had by all that did attend. That's the great thing about Wetherspoon hostelries, there's plenty of cheap booze, the regulars will talk to anyone for the price of a pint and there's always someone in a worst state than you (even at 10am).

I'm sure when word gets out of this prestigious event, next year they'll all be clamouring for tickets!

Anyway, even through the fog and mist of my alcohol induced headache I could see that the racing today was, to put it bluntly, truly shocking so I don't think we missed anything race-wise but as it's Friday I'm sure you're all eagerly awaiting the Friday Fun.

So I've pulled myself together to sort out a few words and a few horses for your delectation.
-------------

First up are three races from one of my favourite race-courses, Wincanton and as usual back them, lay them or ignore them.......

2.20
Only a small field but still devilishly difficult to sort out. 5 of the 6 runners won last time but we can at least forget the other one who couldn't win with a fence head start.

Ring The Boss and Breedbreeze look the main 2 but Sir Harry Ormesher won well at Exeter just over 2 weeks ago, where he beat Straw Bear, and on that run he just gets my vote.

2.50
Another trappy race with a small field. The main question is whether Katchit can give the weight away to some fairly decent opponents. Last years Champion Hurdler got caught close home last time and will strip a lot fitter today so I'm taking him to concede the 14lbs, and upwards, to his rivals and get his season off and running.

Blythe Knight could be the surprise if Katchit doesn't run to form as he has had a good season on the flat and will be fit for this.

3.25
They're not getting any easier!
Nudge And Nurdle has been disappointing on his 2 runs so far this season, Cornish Sett fell 1st time out and Ardaghey was well beaten on his only run with the rest yet to race this season. Island Fler and Trigger The Light have plenty of success between them and have leading chances here as does Leading Attraction but I'm going to give the nod to Leading Authority from the Tizzard family. He is 1 from 1 at the distance, 1 from 3 on the ground and with the Tizzard yard amongst the winners so far this season his fitness shouldn't be to much of a worry. The 6/1 looks a pretty safe each-way bet.

------------

I wasn't going to waste any more time with the flat this season but the Tote Scoop 6 rollover has made me re-think that strategy plus I think I have a great bet that could bring the curtain down with a triumphant fanfare.

First the bet, I'm going to be having a decent each way wager on this one and at 16/1 I make him the best bet of the day.

The horse is Dhaular Dhar and the race is the concluding 22 runner 7f handicap at 3.45. He is a C & D winner, was 4th to Skhilling Spirit last time out over 6f and previous to that ran in a group race behind Kings Apostle. The last time he tried 7F he was 4th to Furnace at Ascot beaten just over 1 length which all adds up to a horse with an excellent chance. Top weight won't stop him and stall 14 is ok as they will probably come down the middle as they normally do on soft ground. 16/1 each way looks excellent value to me....

The Scoop 6

The good news, there is some serious money up for grabs in this weeks Scoop 6 with £952,114 carried forward and a bonus fund of £439,249. By the time the first race arrives there should be over £2m to play for and at just £2 a go has to be worth a shot.

Now the bad news, the races are the 1.30 2.05 2.35 3.10 Donc 3.25 Winc and 3.45 Donc.
6 very tough races with nothing looking banker material. Ah well.

I'll show you the perm I'll be trying to win with just so you'll know, should I be lucky enough to hit the jackpot, why there's no more Nag3 Blog Posts...



9/11 - 3/10 - 3/5 - 12/23 - 10/12 - 1/12



------------



Friday Fun

To celebrate the forthcoming eviction of George 'Dubya' Bush from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue......



Good luck,

Gavin.

'And now the end is near'....

sang one of, if not, the best loved showmen of all time.

Frank Sinatra wasn't crooning about the end of the 2008 Flat season but I for one am glad that it is now 'facing the final curtain'.

It's been a long and extremely tough 7 months where nothing has really gone to plan. With the trends being rendered completely useless by many factors, not least of which was a rampaging Aiden O'Brien, the weather causing meetings to be abandoned in the middle of August and a whole host of placed horses denying me a big payday it really is time to draw a line under this flat season and move on to the more reliable (ahem) National Hunt racing.

So to bring down that final curtain, I offer you my thoughts on the last big race of the Season, the November Handicap, and before everybody else starts the usual end of year reviews I'm going to get in first and present my alternative awards for the 2008 Flat Season.

The November Handicap

I'll give the trends the chance to go out with a bang by taking a stats based look at Saturday's race.

- 3 & 4-y-o's have won the last 7 November handicaps and 8 of the last 10.

If we stick with this age group the field is reduced by 12

- No favourite has won in the last decade
- All of the last 10 winners had run their last race from the end of September onwards.
- All 10 had run at least 4 times that season
- 7 of the last 10 had won over the distance

If we assume that Previs will go off favourite this will leave us with just 2 horses....

Hits Only Vic and Electrolyser.

So it's Electrolyser for a win and Hits Only Vic each way at around 25/1

-------------

And now I am proud to present the......

Nag3 End of the 2008 Flat Season Awards (or The Nags).

With a whole host of racing celebrities, Aiden O'Brien, Lester Piggott, Sir Michael Stoute, Sheikh Mohammed, Henry Cecil all making their excuses and giving this prestigious event the swerve it was left to me and a few toothless, flat cap wearing old men to discuss the merits of this years contenders over 1/2 a pint of stout in the local Wetherspoons.

To start off proceedings it's the

In Hindsight, Worst Bet of the Year Award
Without a doubt it has to be Bankable in the 29 runner Royal Hunt Cup. Some people were saying it before the race, loads were saying it after the race but I think everyone will now agree that the 13/8 he returned for one of the strongest mile handicaps of the year was ludicrously short.

Bernard Matthews Turkey of the Year Award.
Plenty of contenders but again I'm going to give another award to Bankable. If ever a horse was wrongly named it's this one and I'm really annoyed with myself for giving him another chance last Saturday. After a good start to the season he ended up a beaten favourite 6 times and runner up on 6 of his last 7 starts. In his final race he ended up like a Bernard Matthews Christmas Turkey....well and truly stuffed and if he stays in training for another year he'll be one to avoid.

Airmiles 'Long way to go just for some Sunshine' Award
A last minute addition to the Award ceremony and added purely to recognise Aiden O'Brien's Melbourne Cup adventure. He may have carried all before him around the globe this season but in sending 3 horses halfway around the world (and back again) only to finish with 3 of the last 4 horses home surely wasn't Aiden's finest hour. And as for those race tactics, what was that all about?
I wonder if horses qualify for Airmiles?

Chris Moyles Waste of Time Award
Not just because I failed to tip a single winner on the card but for a whole host of reasons the recipient of this award is Ascot and their totally pointless Shergar Cup meeting. Racing is not and never will be a team sport (ask Aiden O'Brien after his recent run-ins with the Stewards). Nobody cares if the Rest of the World beat Europe or Great Britain or whoever, all we want is winners and putting jockeys unfamiliar with certain horses around tracks they have never ridden just makes it harder. Oh, and I still can't get over making All The Good the bet of the meeting, watch him run no race at all and then see him come out and win the Ebor replacement race next time out at 25/1!!!.....

Worst Tipster of 2008 Award
You're probably all shouting Gavin at this point but although I'm the first to admit it hasn't been a great year there is one Newspaper tipster that has made my tipping look positively inspired. Step forward Value Scope of the Daily Mirror who has had a torrid 2008 and must be keeping his job purely because of past glories. Basing his selections on race trends it does highlight the fact that it has been a difficult year for the stats but the man hasn't tipped a worthwhile winner for nearly 12 months. His Saturday column was up over 250 points in 2007 but even if he tipped every big race winner until the end of the year he'd struggle to break even for 2008. I'm sure he's even happier than me to see the back of the flat season.

Alton Towers 'Nemesis' Best Ride of the Season Award
Plenty of contenders but for me it was Hayley Turner's ride on Gee Dee Nen at the Shergar Cup meeting. Well off the pace and with it all to do when hampered two furlongs out she rode a very strong finish to get up in the last strides and deny the front running Bogside Theatre. The gamble (9s into 9/2) was landed in a very exciting and power-packed finish. This also prompted Willie Carson to declare 'she's a very good jockey for a girl' which would have earned him the sexist pig award if the Nags had such a thing.

Blackpool Pleasure Beach 'Log Flume' Worst Ride of the Season Award
All 3 of Aiden O'Briens jockeys in the Melbourne Cup merit a mention but as they were probably riding to instructions we'll have to look elsewhere for this award. Frankie Dettori on Sixties Icon at the Breeders Cup? Any horse with Richard Quinn aboard? No, for me personally it has to be David Probert aboard Sirens Gift in the Portland handicap. Having lumped on at 16/1 and seen him going easily I committed the cardinal sin of counting my chickens. Youth, inexperience and excitement got the better of him as he went for home too soon and having gone 2 lengths clear he was collared on the last stride to finish 3rd. As he's only an apprentice he'll learn from his mistake and so will I. Eggs are Eggs, Chickens are Chickens.....

Tippex Re-Write History Award & The Benjamin Disraeli Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics Award
The winner of both awards is Aiden O'Brien who has consistently torn up the trends book and achieved new records time and time again. Yeats, Moonstone and Mount Nelson were just a few of his runners to defy major trends and win Group 1 races this year.
His Group race 1-2-3's are now quite common so surely his greatest achievement was winning all 5 Irish Classics in a single year, something not done since 1935 and something not even the great Vincent O'Brien could manage.
The wheels may have fallen off his Group 1 record attempt late on in the season but this doesn't detract from his achievements this season and his total mid-summer big race domination.

Usain Bolt Sprint King Award
I'm going to award this to the Nag3 Blog as it seems the big handicap sprints have been our sole shining light in an otherwise poor year. Judge and Jury, Skhilling Spirit and Regal Parade were all big priced, big sprint winners and there were plenty of big priced placed horses too including the aforementioned Sirens Gift. It's something I will definitely be concentrating on more for next season.

Which just leaves the
Horse of the Year Award
I don't think it can be any horse other than Ravens Pass who turned his season around in dramatic fashion and ended up a Breeders Cup Classic Winner. He started the season being beaten in the Craven by Twice Over and then got quite accustomed to viewing Henrythenavigators backside disappearing into the distance. But he kept on improving and having gained his revenge on Henry in the QEII he beat him once again at Santa Anita to claim an historic victory and his just deserts.

And the biggest accolade of them all, the Nag3 Horse of the Year 2008

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Finally, it's not too late to join in the fun with the Nag3 TTF Syndicate. Simply send your name or two bankers or both to tentofollow@nag-nag-nag.co.uk to register for a share of any winnings.

You can see all the details of this free offer by scrolling down through the last two posts.

Good luck,
Gavin.

Everyone loves a freebie....

and today I've got loads of them...

Ten to Follow

First freebie of the day is my offer to all readers to join the Nag3 Ten To Follow (from now on TTF to save my weary digits) Syndicate. I'll be taking names until Midnight Saturday and then, as I said yesterday, reveal the numbers and selections on the Sunday.

I promise you there is absolutely no catch and nothing to pay. I'm going to stump up the entry fees and split every penny of any winnings with all those who register.

Why? Well, simply, to give everyone of my loyal readers a bit of fun this winter and if we were lucky enough to win anything, it's got to be good publicity for the Blog!

All it takes is a quick email to tentofollow@nag-nag-nag.co.uk

with your idea of 2 bankers for the syndicate.

The full list of the 500 horses to choose from can be found in The Racing Post newspaper or the Tote TTF website (which rather bizarrely requires you to register before viewing the list!). They do however allow you to see the rules and prize breakdown if you click the how to enter button.

But if, for any reason at all, you don't want to suggest two horses then don't let that stop you joining in the fun. Simply email the same address with your name, put Nag3TTF in the subject box, send it off and you will be included in the syndicate with a full share of any winnings.

There's been a fantastic response so far and it's looking pretty clear, even at this early stage, of the 6 horses likely to make up our bankers. Keep the suggestions and emails coming in though and let's hope for a great Winter.

See the full offer and Terms and Conditions in yesterday's post.

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Horse racing giveaway

Next up on a great day for the freebie is the Great Horse Racing Giveaway.

Basically, 28 of the leading Racing website owners have got together to offer a whole load of free stuff for you to download.

Racing systems, racing services, ebooks, software and loads more racing related goodies are all up for grabs and it's all free of charge.

The only thing they request is for you to provide an email address and that's it. You can then help yourself to as little or as much as you like.

To check it out, go here;
http://www.horseracing-giveaway.com/022.htm

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Little Acorns Low Liability Laying Formula

Next up is a quick look at the Little Acorns System I (or rather my brother) have been trialing.

Since my (his) last update the system has selected the following;

Thursday: No selections

Friday:
1 Sergheyev £10 @ 1.97 lost thus +£9.50 = +£153.50

Saturday:
1 Ayr Inflammable lost 1.86 +£9.50 = +£163.00

1 New Ouster lost 2.00 +£9.50 = +£172.50

1 Weth Glencree lost 1.82 +£9.50 = +£182.00

Sunday:
1 Companero £10 @ 1.96 won thus lost £9.60 = +£172.40

There were no selections today.

Considering that this system lays those horses that are between evens and 1/2 these are pretty impressive results.

In fact it seems to pick more losers than me! Obviously being a laying system that is what you are paying your money for and the little Acorn is really showing itself to be a cracking little system.

I'll keep you posted on the results up to the weekend and then post a full report along with my thoughts next Monday. And all for free......

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Melbourne Cup

Last freebie of the day and probably the one worth the least is my look Down Under at the Melbourne Cup.......

4:00 Flemington 2miles, 24 runners, 12000miles away and 4 o'clock in the morning... I must be mad to even try to evaluate the ever popular Melbourne Cup, but in our game you can't afford to sleep as you might just miss that all important winner.

As we all know A P O'Brien has won just about everything this season so it would be no surprise at all to see him win this but I do think it would be a triumph if Septimus were able to win. He's never won a race with more than 10 runners in it and with topweight he has it all to do.

Honolulu also has his fair share of weight and being drawn widest of all in 24 isn't going to help his chances any.

O'Briens 3rd string Alessandro Volta on the other hand could surprise at a massive price. I don't think he's in the line-up because the owner had the air fare going spare and from his low weight I can see him running a mighty race. I really respect his chance and at 33/1 with our bookmakers back home that looks really good value.

Home favorite Nom Du Jeu has got the worst of the draw whilst bottom weight Moatize won a Group3 on Saturday but might find this coming a bit quick.

D Weld trained Profound Beauty has a strong claim as does home trained Barbaricus but the one I like the look of the most is C'Est La Guerre trained by J Sadler. He ran a fine trial in the Group 1 Cox Plate last time and this step up in trip could bring about the improvement needed to take this famous race. The biggest worry for me is the draw(5) but with a bit of luck in running I'm hoping for a big run.

At around 16/1,that looks outstanding e/w value.

Selection: C'Est La Guerre (18/1 each way)
with a small Each way saver on Allesandro Volta (33/1)

Good luck,
Gavin.

Tote ten to follow.....

We'll start today with an exciting opportunity for all readers to get their hands on a share of £1,000,000......

Tote Ten to Follow

The Tote have now launched the jumps version of their popular Ten to Follow competition with a very tasty One Million Pounds up for grabs.

https://ttf.totesport.com/

Obviously this is a pretty decent incentive to have a go, not to mention it's great fun too!, and I'm sure a lot of you will be taking part.

But for those readers who for one reason or another don't fancy having a go on your own I thought we could have our very own Nag3 TTF Syndicate adventure.

It won't cost you a penny as I'll be footing the entry fees but for all those who want to participate in the fun you will all win an equal share of any prize money (if we were lucky enough to win anything.)

So how's it going to work?

At £12 a pop it's not the cheapest of competitions and if you start doing multiple entries it can all get a bit expensive but I'll stretch the Nag3 blog budget to 5 attempts or £60 of my hard earned cash.

If we have 6 bankers on all 5 entries this should enable us to perm a few selections with them and give us plenty of horses to cheer on this Winter.

Or put another way, I propose each line will have 6 horses all the same with 4 unique selections in each of the 5 entries to make up the required 10 horses.

I'll leave it up to you to pick the bankers and I think the easiest way to do this is if you email which two horses from the Ten to Follow list you think should be included.

You can find the list in the Racing Post and remember we are trying to find the horses that will score the most wins during the season. With Bonus points available for all the big races we need to concentrate on finding the horses that will most likely be competing for top honours.

The 6 horses that are the most popular from these emails will become the 6 main bankers.

And please, in fairness to all, just one entry per household. Thank-you.

Then next week from all those of you who want to be a part of the Nag3 attempt I will randomly select 10 of you to pick 2 extra horses needed to make up the 10 selections in each of the 5 lines. These 2 extra picks can be any horses you fancy that are not already included as bankers.

So if you want to be a part of the fun, all you need to do for now is simply email your 2 bankers to

tentofollow@nag-nag-nag.co.uk

This will register you as part of the syndicate and give you a share of any winnings at the end of the season.

I have registered with the Tote the syndicate name NagnagnagBlog and hopefully we can at the very least get an honourable mention in the Racing Post updates.

VERY IMPORTANT - PLEASE READ

Entries for inclusion in the syndicate close midnight on Saturday 8th November. Only emails to the address above will be accepted. One entry per household. Please put Nag3 TTF in the email subject box. I will update the names of the selected bankers and the number of people in our syndicate next Sunday. I withhold the right to exclude anyone I deem unsuitable for this promotion and my decision on all matters is final. Oh, and you must be OVER 18! Any entries not complying with these rules will be void.

Remember, it won't cost you anything!!

Good luck,
Gavin.