The English Riviera....

is where I find myself this week enjoying the sun drenched South Coastal resort of Torquay.

I spent 20 excellent years studying, living and working here and it's still, for me, the best place in the country. The weather's just as good as I remember it with the blue, cloudless skies and the sun shining down, which is nothing like South Wales this Summer!

I've been catching up with friends & family and tonight I'm off to the local casino for a spot of Texas Holdem Poker with my friend Trev the Magician.

He was the UK Close Up magician for three years running and for those of you who like a bit of magic and sleight of hand I'll post one of his videos in the Friday Fun section sometime soon and you can see this master at work.

Strangely enough he's not allowed to deal the cards when we play poker!

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It looks like all the best racing is being saved for the weekend as the standard has been poor, to say the least, this week. With the Cambridgeshire, Arc and a whole host of other Group 1's it should be a cracking, and busy, start to the month.

But in the meantime there are a couple of half decent sprint's today which I've had a look at for you below.....


4:40 Salisbury

Salisbury is not one of my luckiest tracks but it does have a draw bias. A high draw on firm ground is a must at Salisbury and provided the heavens don't open I think we are safe to discount those drawn 7 or lower.

Of those left we have Bazroy drawn 14, he has only managed to beat 6 rivals home in his last 3 races and with the burden of topweight I think we will look elsewhere. Forest Dane(8) and Kelamon(13) have respectable chances on old form but no worthy recent efforts.

Filligree(12),Blue Jack(11) and Polar Annie(15) are all 3yo's and whilst having some decent form between them, I always feel their age is against them when running against established older sprinters.

That leaves us with Mogok Ruby(10) and Charlie Delta(9). Of the 2 my preference is for Mogok Ruby as his last 2 runs at Newmarket are both very creditable efforts. He finished 5th of 19 last time over 6f on good to firm ground.

Charlie Delta does have some good credentials but I find it difficult to avoid the fact that he doesn't like this time of year. Nearly all his career wins(9 in total) have come in April, May & June. He was also 2L behind the selection last time at Newmarket, a race in which Saturday's Chester winner Wyatt Earp was 3rd.

It's between the 2 but slight preference is for Mogok Ruby.

1:50 Nottingham

Another fiercely competitive sprint but with one horse who, for me, stands out from the crowd.

Enodoc a winner just 7 days ago at Goodwood not only escapes a penalty for that win but also races of a 2lb lower mark as he was due to be dropped anyway. He has the stylish young apprentice D Probert (Siren's Gift) aboard. He claims another valuable 5lb and as he boasts an excellent 4 from 8 success rate for the W. Muir stable it's another tick in the right box. When you add to all that he is drawn 16, when high numbers are best at Nottingham on good ground, you can see why I think he looks such a good thing. The only negative is that he is only a 3-y-o racing against established season campaigners and as I said in the other preview I don't really like backing this age group in these tough sprints but as he is so well in I'm going to break this rule for today.

Of the others, old favourites Malapropism and Raccoon have good draws but they're not the force of old. One I would just like to mention and might be worth watching is Nickel Silver. He's not drawn well today in 4 and is still a maiden after 7 attempts (5 of which were in maidens) but I like both the jockey and trainer (Robinson/Smart) and feel the 33/1 or so that is available could be worth a couple of shillings each-way.

In the end though there is no getting away from the fact that Enodoc looks thrown in.

Good luck,
Gavin.

Placepot up again......

Not a great day for me yesterday on the tipping front but I did manage to get the big race winner with the added bonus of finally getting one over on Aiden O'Brien!

I also got the Ascot Placepot up again and with a £145 dividend for 13 units it certainly made it a profitable bet. Judging by the mailbag a few of you have been following the perm so I'll keep it as a regular Saturday feature.

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A rare treat for all us racing fans with 3 races live on the BBC this afternoon;

2.05 Ascot Marchpole H'Cap

A race full of out-of-form horses looking to recapture some of their former glory and basically, I think the race is between the top and bottom horses and a split stake on the two should be in order.

Young Mick had looked like he was on his way back and capable of bagging a big prize until running below par on the All Weather on his latest outing. If we forgive him that run he has every chance of taking this less than competitive race as his 5th in the re-scheduled Ebor was a fine effort. He loves Ascot and a good run should be on the cards.

The dark horse of the race is Sir Michael Stoute's Kensington Oval. Obviously he is highly thought of in the stable as he was sent off the 4/1 favourite for the Listed Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot after just a maiden win. He fluffed the break there and was never competitive but this easier assignment from bottom weight and over an extra 2f should see him in better light.

2.40 Cumberland Lodge

A small field that could prove to be a tactical affair but with Sixties Icon looking back to something like his best I'm pretty confident he can defy his 3lb penalty. He has won a couple of decent Group 3 races in his last two starts and provided he comes here with the same enthusiasm should have nothing to fear from this field.

3:15 Ascot Diadem Stakes

Prime Defender looks to have been found a great opportunity to win his 1st race of the season in this competitive Group 2.

He ran an absolute blinder last time behind African Rose when beaten only 1 1/2 lengths. 4-y-o's have had the best record in recent years and I think he's tremendous value at around 10/1.

Assertive will find this tough with his penalty but Hannon's other runner Edge Closer looks a big danger. The out of form Diabolical, Zidane and Kings Apostle are all looking to bounce back but may have to wait for easier opportunities.

Strike The Deal can be given a chance on some of his 2-y-o races and coming from J Noseda's in form yard could be a nice each way price if getting it all together.

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Friday Fun

Many thanks to everybody who sent in Frankie's 7 winners, there were quite a few more entries than last weeks quiz!

The winners of the Magnificent 7 Friday Quiz were Bob Smith, Vivian Double and Robert Arthur.

Well done and your Jack Daniels Poker Sets will be winging their way to you from Monday.

That's all for today.
Good luck,
Gavin.

The Magnificent Seven...

No, not the classic western film with Yul Brynner, Eli Wallach, Steve McQueen et al but Frankie's greatest day in the saddle. It was on this card in 1996 that he rode every winner and reduced the bookmakers to quivering wrecks.

My brother, Gary, and I owned a couple of betting shops in Torbay at the time and I think we were the only bookies in the area to escape unscathed.

While we were aware of the amazing feat that was happening before us it wasn't until I got home and saw the news that I realised how badly the industry had been hit and how lucky we were to escape unharmed.

That is probably the Great(est) Escape we ever had in our bookmaking career and it still amazes me now that not one of our customers decided to follow Frankie that day!

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So now it's time to bite the Bullit (Steve McQueen again!) and try to do a Frankie and get all 7 winners at Ascot.....

1.55 Rosemary Stakes

A very tricky fillies & mares handicap to get proceedings underway where any number of horses could be given a chance.

Oat Cuisine, for the inform Hayley Turner, and Jamboretta, from the powerful Stoute yard, are the likely favourites and both have excellent chances but I am going to give another chance to Basque Beauty.

I'm hoping this return to a mile on better ground will see her back to the kind of form she showed when winning her maiden on the course by 6 lengths.

Of the others; Nijoom Dubai is obviously the class horse of the race and even with top weight could run a big race. The 33/1 is quite an attractive proposition. Ghaidaa, Annie Skates and the other Stoute runner Lindelaan are all with chances in a very open and tough race.

2.30 Royal Lodge Stakes

I'm going to stick with Orizaba to give Frankie at least one winner on todays card. I'm not too sure what happened at Royal Ascot, where I fancied him very strongly on the back of his Newbury debut romp, but he bounced back well from that defeat at Goodwood and scored nicely. The way he finished his race that day suggested the step up to a mile would be well within his compass and a bold bid is expected.

Cityscape should be the main danger but I really like the Henry Cecil colt, On Our Way and after his fine second at Salisbury he could be the dark horse of the race.

3.05 Fillies Mile

Rainbow View has looked like a high class filly in all her 3 starts and I see no reason to oppose her here. Obviously at the price she's not worth backing but it would be nice to see her win impressively and cement her status as the years best 2-y-o filly. Luca Cumani's Fantasia can chase her home.

3.40 Challenge Cup

I thought last Saturdays Ayr Gold Cup was a connundrum but Ascot has surpassed that with what can only be described as, the most open handicap of the season so far, though I'm equally sure Newmarket will surpass it with next weeks Cambridgeshire.

On the evidence of today, the draw advantage is where the pace or better horses are as we had them winning from everywhere.

Of those drawn high I like the look of last weeks Ayr 5th Skhilling Spirit, trained by T Barons who won this in 2001. Others drawn high that I feel are worth a mention are topweight Hitchens and Dhaular Dhar. From the teens, Military Cross for the Cumani/Dettori team could roll back the years for this once dynamic duo but my overall preference is for the low drawn horses.

I'm particularly keen on Giganticus from B Hills yard and Vanderlin from the A Baldings yard. The last named has the ground/trip/draw all in his favour with the only down side being the jockey, he cost us dear at Doncaster when even my, soon to be 5-years-old, son could have won on Sirens Gift from the furlong pole.

Putting my head on the block and siding with the low numbers I'm going for a decent bet on Giganticus and a small Each Way on Vanderlin at 33/1.

(If it's looking like high numbers then I'll switch to Skhilling Spirit and Hitchens)

4.15 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes

Only 7 runners going to post but a very interesting race nonetheless.

With the powerful Henrythenavigator unable to handle soft ground last time out and suffering a rare defeat I think there are grounds to take him on again. Regular readers will be aware that my record of opposing the Aiden O'Brien Group 1 horses this year has been poor to say the least but O'Briens record in this race isn't the best and he has seen some of his better horses turned over here. With just one winner from his last 16 runners and the likes of Giants Causeway, Hawk Wing, Excellent Art and Duke of Marmalade all beaten I am inclined to look elsewhere for some value.

An interesting stat for the race is that 11 of the last 12 winners had all raced within 35 days of the QEII. The exception was the mighty Dubai Millenium.

This would seem to exclude Tamayuz and Sabana Perdida

Which leaves me siding with the consistent Ravens Pass to finally secure the Group 1 race he deserves.

He has finished behind Henry 3 times already this season, with the margin of defeat getting smaller each time, and he was also behind Tamayuz in France where Jimmy Fortune gave him a very poor ride. In this smaller field and with more forceful tactics I think there is every chance he can turn the tables on the two market principles.

4.50 October Stakes

Another very tricky race with a big field and where the market principles haven't shown much form of late.

Majestic Roi on ratings is far superior to this field and will certainly appreciate the drop in class but she isn't the most reliable of horses and is probably worth opposing.

The one that I quite like and one that should give us a run for our money is Francesca D'Gorgio with that man Frankie on board. She ran last in the 1000 Guineas but was not seen out again until 11 days ago when a staying on 3rd over an inadequate 6f. She should strip all the fitter for that run and could be Each Way value at around 10/1 over this longer trip.

5.25 Gordon Carter H'cap

Not a great race to end the day but luckily it's not including in the Placepot.

Four Miracles and Greenwich Village are both form horses but have to overcome breaks of over 6 weeks, this could be seen as a prep race on the way to The Cesarewitch in a few weeks time.

Grande Caiman has been beaten NH distances in a couple of recent runs, Downhiller is going up in trip again, Full House would be better off staying in his box and playing bingo, whilst Victoria Montoya has had a good season but 3-y-o's don't fare too well in this race.

Having said all of this I find myself drawn to Kasthari who is the complete outsider of the field, at 9 years old he's not getting any quicker but I like the way he's been running of late.

I seriously think he's worth a small each way wager and I'm confident you'll get a good run for your money. I find it interesting to see D Holland in the plate and I envisage him steeling the race turning for home.

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Many thanks for your emails and comments regarding the Placepot perm I posted yesterday. It's a little different in its approach to Placepot betting and certainly a lot cheaper than a full perm but unfortunately, I can't take the credit for creating it as it was given to me some years ago by another betting shop manager.

Not a bad first attempt with it though, as we managed to get the Ascot Placepot up for 4 bets and show a small profit. I've had another go for tomorrows Ascot Placepot and my selections are;

FAV + 5&11
FAV + 2&8
FAV + 4&7
FAV + 6&10
FAV + 4&5
FAV + 4&10

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It was another great day for TTS today with just 2 horses qualifying and one lovely 11/2 winner, in the form of Jazz Dance.

This keeps us in the winners enclosure and in profit for over 18 points this month. This surely means all you bargain hunters have got, for £1, the best deal in the history of Horseracing Systems.

It's still not too late to join in the fun. Simply go here to read all about it.....

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/

Good luck,
Gavin.

P.S. One last thing, our old friend Joseph Henry runs again today at Haydock. He has to win one before the end of the season and I'm hoping its going to be today.

Placepot permutations....

Arrrrrgh, bang, splat. That is the sound of me coming crashing down to earth!!

I'm sure that you don't need telling what a disaster yesterday was, so I'll just quickly move on.

On a brighter note TTS stormed back into form today after a few unlucky recent selections. We've had our fair share of fallers over the last week or so and with Buck the Legend slipping badly as he made his challenge yesterday we were certainly entitled to a change of luck.

And change it did with 3 winners at 10/1, 7/2 and 7/4. A very good day indeed!

This puts us just under 14 points in profit for the month which is a great start given the limited number of jumps meetings so far this season.

It's still possible to join TTS for this seasons NH racing and you will find all the information here....

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/

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Placepot perms

I was going to write, in last Saturday's post, a more in depth piece about the Placepot but due to a shortage of space I elected to go with a brief description of the bet instead.

The idea was to include a more complex perm ,that was given to me some years ago, and is a fantastic way of perming 3 selections per race for just 160 bets. Those mathematically astute amongst you will know that a full perm of 3 horses per race would usually be 729 bets (i.e. 3x3x3x3x3x3=729).

The downside though is that it is a bit more complex than your usual Placepot perm and can take a bit of writing out but my love affair with the Placepot is all down to this perm.

As mentioned in yesterday's post I had a considerable amount of luck the first time I tried out this bet......

It was way back in 1994 on a cold and miserable February afternoon using this 'system' I staked £40 on a Lingfield A.W. Placepot. 6 races later and with 5 placed favourites I had managed to get the Placepot for just over £5.

Expecting a dividend of around £50 and a good night on the town my gabber was absolutely flabbered when it returned £2700 for a £1. After the taxman had taken his cut (as he did in those days), William Hill kindly gave me the best part of £12,500 which contributed to a very, very good night out.

Anyway, enough reminiscing and onto the perm itself.

It involves making two selections per race and perming them with either a banker or the Un-named favourite in the same races to give 20 separate Placepot lines.

Each line will include 3 bankers / un-named favourites and 6 of your own selections (2x2x2).

Thus the first line would be filled out like this


Race 1: BANKER
Race 2: BANKER
Race 3: BANKER
Race 4: 2 selections
Race 5: 2 selections
Race 6: 2 selections = 8 bets (2x2x2)

And then the lines would go;

Line 2: Banker/Banker/2 selections/Banker/2 selections/2 selections

and then;

B B 2 2 B 2
B B 2 2 2 B
B 2 B B 2 2
B 2 B 2 B 2
B 2 B 2 2 B
B 2 2 B B 2
B 2 2 B 2 B
B 2 2 2 B B
2 B B B 2 2
2 B B 2 B 2
2 B B 2 2 B
2 B 2 B B 2
2 B 2 B 2 B
2 B 2 2 B B
2 2 B B B 2
2 2 B B 2 B
2 2 B 2 B B
2 2 2 B B B

Giving you 20 separate bets of 8 lines each. As long as you manage to get 3 bankers / un-named favourites in the frame and your selections for the other 3 races you are guaranteed the Placepot.

It's a fun way of betting and with 3 horses in each race gives you a great chance to scoop the pool.

So I suppose the best way to try it out, is to have a go at the Ascot Placepot. And here it is;

Race 1 : FAV + 2 & 7
Race 2 : FAV + 13 & 14
Race 3 : FAV + 2 & 4
Race 4 : FAV + 1 & 6
Race 5 : FAV + 6 & 11
Race 6 : FAV + 9 & 14

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Friday Fun

If anybody needed reminding, this is the Ascot meeting that Frankie Dettori rode his 7 winners through the card at. So what better time to relive that momentous occasion;



And as I have a few more Jack Daniels poker sets left, I'll give another 3 away to the first 3 out of the hat who give the names of his 7 winners that day.

Entries to quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk before 6pm Saturday.

Good luck,
Gavin.

Important TTS Information: Please Read - Revised Qualifiers

Early post, dear reader, to tell you quite simply that there was a rick with the posting of the qualifiers, and they should be as follows:

Perth: 4.10 Santando

Perth: 5.20 Buck The Legend
Duckworth Lewis

Perth: 5.50 Diablo

Sincere apologies, the cat o'nine tails has been applied to the selections man!

More later, but I wanted to get this out asap.

Matt

Playing up our winnings.....Part 2....

After today's attempt to play up our winnings was aborted late on due to the ground we're back on more familiar territory with a look at a couple of today's sprint handicaps.

It's probably a good thing that Ivory Lace was taken out because she definitely doesn't want it soft but I was a bit gutted having managed to get 18.5 on Betfair the night before. She's in a big handicap at Ascot on Sunday and looks out of her depth but with ground and trip to suit she may be a worth a small each way speculation at the likely large odds.

But for the more immediate profit opportunities we have.......


5:10 Redcar

A very tricky 19 runner 5f h'cap but you know me, I've just got to have a crack at it!

I will say that Redcar is not one of my favourite tracks but I do think that one horse stands out as a fantastic e/w bet. He has sound claims and should be placed at the very least.

Coleorton Dancer has not won since his 3-y-o days and as a 2-y-o rattled up an impressive 4timer, he rose to a rating of 102 at his peak and whilst clearly not that good any more (66 today), he has proven he retains some ability. He finished 3rd last time out, beaten only a length by the in form Woodsley House and as that was over today's Course, Distance and Going he should handle the conditions fine.

A low draw is needed here when the ground rides soft in big fields and from stall 1 our selection has the best of it. After seeing how well he travelled throughout the race last time, if he can get a good lead up the far rail, the race is his for the taking.

3:45 Goodwood

Another very competitive sprint that has to be worth a dabble and I have got to say that at around 10/1 Charles Darwin is plainly..... great value.

He has his favoured ground, distance and a great draw up the stands rail. He travels particularly well through his races which will help with the undulations of this track. A strong pace and little bit of luck in running should see him shoot through under the stands side, that's assuming the heavens haven't opened at Goodwood like they did at Folkestone today, because this horse like Ivory Lace must have fast ground.

Possible dangers include the weather and the inform King's Wonder, Patavium Prince and Even Bolder, whilst Dazed And Amazed could surprise at very rewarding odds.

4.55 Goodwood

Henry Cecil's Tomintoul Flyer has been running very well of late but without success and doesn't seem to quite get home. Twice he has been collared in the last 50 yards in recent races including last time out when he looked a certain winner after powering clear at the furlong pole.

I think we may see a return to front running tactics tomorrow on a course that definitely suits this style of racing and one that Tomintoul Flyer used as a 2-y-o to record one of his best performances.

The obvious danger is Luca Cumani's Thumbs Up but at the respective prices I quite like the chances of Mr Cecil's runner.


An Each Way Patent (3 singles, 3 doubles and a treble) seems the order of the day.

3.45 Good wood: Charles Darwin
4.55 Goodwood: Tomintoul Flyer
5.10 Redcar: Coleorton Dancer

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I'll be back tomorrow with a more in depth look at the Placepot bet and an interesting perm (no not a Kevin Keegan 70's hairstyle!) that I was given some years ago.

The very first time I used this bet permutation I won £12,500 for a £40 stake (with a little help from the biggest freak Placepot dividend I have ever seen) but more of that tomorrow.

Until then....
Good luck,
Gavin.

Playing up our winnings.....

It seems, dear readers, that the chicken theme of Sunday's post has gone down rather nicely with you all, a bit like my Roast Dinner actually (with apologies to all our vegetarian readers).

So I guess, it only leaves me to say that I hope I don't cock it up and give out any more turkeys that get stuffed. (Sorry for the fowl jokes)

Moving quickly onto today's racing and a runner that, I think, gives us the perfect opportunity to play up our winnings and get us some extra gravy....

4:20 Folkestone

A very open and competitive looking 7f handicap where I have a very strong fancy for one particular runner.

Ivory Lace, although the oldest horse in the race, has been crying out for this 7f on fast ground. All 12 of her career wins have come on good or better going. Her last 2 runs are easily forgotten as they were over 10f (one on soft going) and her stamina was never going to see out that trip.

Prior to that she had been running well over 7 & 8f, including a 4th of 20 in a competitive Goodwood h'cap, which shows she still retains plenty of ability.

She has won off a mark of 85 and has been dropping in the ratings throughout the season. This sees her run today off a rating of only 73.

A Racing Post comment from a race back in June said "she was a winner waiting to happen at a decent price when she gets the trip and ground she needs", well today she has both.

From bottom weight, this mare should find this race a lot easier than some of the ones she has been contesting lately and I'm very hopeful of a big run.

So a fairly confident each way shout for Ivory Lace which should hopefully brighten up an otherwise drab looking Tuesday, Folkestone card.

One last thing, I have a feeling that this one is going to be gambled on and would advise taking an early price.

Good luck,
Gavin.

Big winner, chicken dinner......

At last!!

After quite a few near misses and lots of placed horses we finally landed the big one yesterday. As I keep saying, I do like these big sprints and after last weeks unlucky Siren's Gift I felt it was only a matter of time before that elusive double figured winner came along.

Many thanks for all the kind comments and emails, the William Hill 28/1 was very hard to get but there was plenty of 25's and 20's freely available and I'm very glad so many of you were on.

We were also very close to getting the Placepot up with just the 1st race letting us down. With a near £500 dividend, that could have made a good day great!

But it's definitely onwards and upwards. With the weight of the big winner now lifted and with lots of great racing to look forward to over the coming weeks I'm pretty confident we can keep this good run going.

Stay tuned.....

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Friday Fun competition.

Here are the answers to Fridays Quiz and the 3 Lucky Winners. Your Prizes will be in the post on Monday morning...

1) 19 (Clockwise, numbers on a Dartboard)
2) Maidstone Mixture
3) Chris Martin (Coldplay band members)
4) Judith Keppel, by answering this Quiz question correctly, was the 1st million pound winner on ‘Who Wants to be a Millionaire’ . It was her 15th and final question.
5) Colonel Tom Parker
6) Jack the Ripper’s victims
7) Simpsons
8) Jerry Yang.
9) Alex Ferguson
10) 120

Winners: Neil Owen, Chris Charalambous & Steve Payne

Many thanks to all those who entered. Questions 1 and 4 seemed to be the ones that caught the most people out.

I'll try another Quiz with prizes in a few weeks time.

------------

Finally, (at last!), there are quite a few TTS runners today so if you are signed up it might be worth checking out the Members Site Daily Selection Page.

I'm now off down the park, with my son, for a spot of football then it's back home for a nice Chicken Roast Dinner,

Good Luck,
Gavin.

The Nag3 Mailbag.....

It looks like I'm not the only person suffering at the moment as my email sack has been overflowing with tales of woe and punting misfortune.

It would seem that Seconditus, Placitus and the newly discovered Win-next-time-outus are all more widespread than were previously thought. In fact it looks like we may have a pandemic on our hands....


Anyway, here are a selection of other emails received this week at Nag Towers......

Dear Gavin, After watching Sirens Gift on Saturday would you like to retract the statement in your preview of the race that read 'and with a decent 5lb claimer aboard...'?

Nag3: Yes I would.

---

Dear Sir, After following your advice and backing Sirens Gift I got carried away when he shot clear and promised the wife a slap up meal from my winnings. Any suggestions?
... Troubled from Towcester.

Nag3: I hear the KFC Bargain Bucket is good value.

---

Wipe your fee....stop slouching.....be quiet when I watch Eastenders......get your feet off the sofa....put the toilet seat down......why don't you buy me flowers?
....Hen Pecker from Hamilton.

Nag3: I'm sorry Madam, I think you have the wrong idea about our NagNagNag website.

---

Dear Sirs, I too suffer from Placitus Seconditus. Is there a cure?
....Dee Seas of Doncaster

Nag3: Yes, back Each Way. This ensures your selection will finish out of the frame.

---

Hi, The well known betting site I use has just informed me that, as I keep on winning, I will now have to pay a higher commission rate. Why is it called Betfair?
...Wynn Err of Windsor

Nag3: Because it's a far snappier name than the more appropriate Bitunfair!

---

Hi, I think you have the draw wrong at Haydock. It's Low numbers.
....Matt of London

Nag3: Hahahaha! Nurr nurr nan nurr nurr

Hi, I think you have the draw wrong at Ayr. It's Low numbers
....Matt of London

Nag3: Darn, that'll be 1-1 then. He who laughs last........

---

And finally........

Hello, Why haven't there been any TTS selections this week?

Nag3: Because there is NO NATIONAL HUNT RACING!

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The Ayr Gold Cup.

After the events in the Silver Cup where I selected the best horse but got the draw completely wrong I'm now in a bit of a quandary.

Do I stick with my original instincts and go high or do I bow to the evidence and switch to those drawn low?

Well, neither! I'm going to hedge my bets and give two selections. One drawn high, one low.

First we will eliminate a few horses stuck in the middle or simply those drawn 11-19.

Looking at the last 10 years data it seems horses aged 7 or older and the 3-y-o's have it all to do so we will strike a line through those as well.

That leaves us with 11 , 5 drawn low & 6 drawn high.

Of those drawn high we have Hogmaneigh, Northern Fling, Confuchias, Tajneed, Skhilling Spirit and Regal Parade, 3 of which happen to be trained by, that man again, D Nicholls.

Of these I'm really taken by the chances of Regal Parade and he would have been my sole selection if all had gone to plan in the Silver Cup and Joseph Henry had proven high was best.

But taking those events on board the low draw has to come into it.

We have 5 that qualify from here and they are last years winner Advanced, Valery Borzov, Dhaular Dhar, Tamagin and Aahayson.

All 5 have a great chance not least of which is Advanced who won this last year off a rating of 109. This year he's of 104 and he had no less than 10 of these rivals behind him that day.

Valery Borzov was a fine 2nd in Great St Wilfred and had 7 of these behind that day including Tamagin and Dhaular Dhar.

But the one I'm going to side with, at a very large price, is Aahayson. He won a competitive all aged h'cap at Windsor as a 3-y-o of a rating off 102 on soft ground. He dug deep that day to repel all challengers and make all the running. Karl Burke won this race 10 years ago with a 4-y-o drawn 8 and I'm expecting a big run from him down the far side rail.

Regular readers will be well aware of the big priced placed horses we have had recently and hopefully we can continue that good run with these two selections;

Regal Parade from high and Aahayson from low. I also recommend taking the early prices of 28/1 (William Hill) and 40/1 (Corals) respectively.

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The Ayr Placepot

I have been asked by a reader to explain the Placepot and how to do it, so here goes;

Basically, it's a Tote Pool bet that requires you to find a placed horse in each of the first 6 races at a Horse Race meeting. Unfortunately, like most things in life it sounds easier than it actually is!

The dividend is returned to a £1 unit and depending on how many people in the pool are successful it can pay anything from £10 - £70,000.

You can choose as many selections in a race as you wish but obviously this will cost you more to stake. To work out the perm simply multiply the number of selections you have in each race.

So today's Ayr attempt will be 96 bets (2 x 2 x 3 x 2 x 2 x 2). Here are our hopefuls;

4/9 - 4/12 - 1/8 - 2/4/12 - 1/2 - 3/9 = 96 bets

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Competition entries have been flooding in (more like dripping in actually) but it's still not to late to have a go. Entries close at 6pm Saturday and the questions can be found by scrolling down through Friday's post. With only 5 all correct answers so far and 3 prizes up for grabs that's got to be the best odds on offer all weekend!


Good luck,
Gavin.

P.S. Second Timers today: Dubai Petal 5.15

( Blue Monday was another Second Timer winner when he won today at 13/2 having been tipped here a couple of Saturday's ago.)

Free prizes to be won....

Before we get to the Friday Fun and the Free Prize giveaway we have the little matter of a 27 runner handicap sprint to get our teeth into.

I love these types of races (I know I'm mad). Maybe Ayr should have a Bronze Gold Cup and run it on the Thursday.

The Tote could run a bet where you try to pick the first two home in the three races.
Consolation prizes for getting two right.
They could call it; The Sprinter. (If Mike Smith, Chairman of the Tote, is reading, drop me an email and we'll discuss terms)

Anyway enough of that, back to the Silver Cup and the perfect appetiser for Saturday's feature event;The Ayr Gold Cup.

4:40 Ayr Silver Cup
This race should be renamed "The Dandy Nicholls Benevolent Fund" as he has won the race 4 times in the last 10 years and when Native Title won the race at 66/1 in 2003 he weighed in with the 25/1 second that day as well.

I'm hoping he does the same again this year as I'm going to concentrate solely on the Nicholls quintet and hope he has the winner among them.

First up is Northern Dare who ran a great race last year to be 2nd but has the worst draw of Dandy's runners in stall 9.

Next is Obe Gold in stall 16. Not too bad a draw and you can certainly win from there. He's got plenty of form in the book that would give him a chance but the worry is, he's just not running well enough at present.

Then we have the main 3; Joseph Henry, Gift Horse and Dream Theme.

Regular readers will know I have been sweet on Joseph Henry on a number of occasions this season and today I think he has an outstanding chance from a very good draw. He ran well last week at Doncaster when 3L behind Gift Horse (who was the tip that day at 25/1 and just got run out of it).

Gift Horse is well fancied with the bookies this time but I'm not so sure about draw 14. Being right up the middle and with him being a hold up horse he does have the option of going nearside or farside but once the jockey has made his mind up he's got to stick with it. If Lance Betts, claiming 7, gets it right, he is a solid each way bet.

Last of all is Dream Theme. He ran a credible 5th under top weight at Haydock on Tuesday, in the race I tipped Charles Darwin. He must have been fancied that day as his morning odds of 14/1 were reduced to an SP of only 6/1. He has a good draw here in stall 20 but this would require a big improvement on all known form.

Of the others Mullien is running well and has a good draw in 24. Kaldoun Kingdom from stall 17 will love this ground, is a CD winner in a nursery on this card last year but his age is a worry as 3-y-o's don't tend to do that well in these big sprints.

Hopefully Matt will agree with me this time about the draw, as when the ground is soft/heavy single figure draws seem to have no chance. The middle of the stalls have won a couple and been placed but generally high draws rule when the going at Ayr is good/soft or worse.

It's with these draw considerations in mind that I am once again making Joseph Henry the selection. At around 18/1 with one leading bookie that looks good enough for me.

Gift Horse should run well but at the price I'll be having my each way saver on Dream Theme at 40/1 generally (and much bigger on Betfair.)

Throw in Kaldoun Kingdom for the F/C, T/C mix and there we have it, the Silver Cup sorted!

I'll be back tomorrow with a Gold Cup preview....

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Friday Fun

This week I've got some fantastic prizes to give away, 3 x Special Edition Jack Daniels Poker Sets (worth £20 each) to be precise.

Anyone can enter, Simply have a go at the questions below and send in your answers to quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk


I'll get my 4-y-o son to randomly pick 3 winners from any all correct entries and then I'll notify the winners by email.
The winners and the answers will be posted here on Sunday's blog.



1) What comes next in this sequence? 6 10 15 2 17 3....

2) Which horse finished last in both this years Epsom Derby and the St. Leger and won a Cartmel hurdle in between?

3) Who is missing from this list?
G. Berryman
J. Buckland
W. Champion

4) What makes this quiz question so significant in history?
'Which English king was married to Eleanor of Aquitaine?'

5) In the world of Rock n Roll, who was Andreas van Kuijk better known as?

6) What historical, macabre link do these all share?
Polly Nicholls, Annie Chapman, Lizzie Stride, Catherine Eddowes and Mary Jane Kelly

7) Which famous TV family own a retired greyhound called 'Santa's little helper'?

8) Who is the current reigning Main Event World Series of Poker champion?

9) Who am I?
I was born on 31st December 1941.
My middle name is Chapman.
I was Knighted in 1999.
I have been in my current job since 1986.
I have three sons; Mark, Darren and Jason

10) How many bets are there in a Super Heinz?

Answers to quiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk

Closing date: Saturday 20th September 6pm

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Good Luck,
Gavin.

Contagious diseases....

Worrying times here at Nag Towers as it seems we have caught the highly contagious and difficult to cure disease, Placitus Seconditus.

Even worse, it seems to have mutated and we have also caught a new strain of the disease, win-next-time-outus.

Just recently I have noticed a very worrying trend and those of you who regularly read and follow my blog may well have noticed it too. Horses that I am tipping are getting beat and then winning their very next race.

It all started with the Ebor winner, All the Good . He ran no race at all when I made him the best bet of the Shergar Cup card, in fact he ran appallingly. Next time out he skates home in one of the toughest handicaps all year at a massive 25/1 and on exactly the same ground conditions. Very strange!

Since then we've had, Swords twice at 4/1 & 13/2 , Blessed Place 33/1, South Cape 12/1, Arabian Gleam 9/1, Green Park 9/1..... the list goes on.

I suppose it does mean, contrary to some peoples opinions, I haven't quite lost the winner finding touch but it does mean my timing is a little off.

So from now on, I shall add a little feature to the blog and call it rather un-imaginatively; Second Timers

In it, I shall just list any horse that is running that was previously mentioned in a blog post and you can expect to see the names (amongst others);

Canadian Danehill
Lucky Redback
Joseph Henry
Izzy Lou
Green Diamond

In fact, today we have our first Second Timer horse; Paris Bell who runs in the 3.10 Beverley.
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We might not have won the 4:00 Haydock yesterday with Charles Darwin but anyone who got on at 12/1 each way will be happy enough with their profit and we did beat my good mate Matt with his tip Misphire.

He tried to rubbish my selection on the draw yesterday but we all know who the real Sprint King is!!!!

After Sirens Gift on Saturday, Gift Horse on Friday, Judge N Jury last Thursday and Charles Darwin yesterday we are making a healthy profit on our each way betting in these sprint h'caps and that elusive big priced winner is surely just around the corner.

With both the Ayr Silver and Gold Cups this weekend we have a lot to look forward too, so stay tuned....

Good luck,
Gavin.

Haydock Sprints.....

Not the greatest card Haydock has ever staged but there are a couple of half-decent sprints to get stuck into, so here goes.....

3:30 Haydock

Crying Aloud's 2 wins from 3 runs this season were both on the AW. In between he finished last on turf which doesn't fill me with too much confidence now he returns to grass.
Invincible Force has been running well in good company but seems more of a 5F horse so the 6F in heavy might just stretch his stamina.
Methaaly and Whiskey Junction are both multiple winners this term rising over a stone each in the h'cap, but that still sees them rated 10lb below my selection Something. Whilst his form figures aren't that great he has contested both The Stewards Cup and Wokingham, the trip and ground are no problem and he is the joint top rated horse in the race. Bond City and The Trader seem on the decline at the moment and whilst both retain ability it might be at a lower grade that they get back to winning ways.

Selection: Something

4:00 Haydock

You all know how much I like these sprint handicaps and with Nicholls only having 2 runners it makes it a bit easier.
His Dream Theme, who carries top weight and has dropped 14lb in his last 6 races, and the 3-y-o Monsieur Reynard both have chances as does the likely favourite and very much in form Woodsley House. He completed his hat-trick in good style and has only 4lb more to carry today. Interestingly, Makshoof is ridden by the 3lb claimer who has ridden Woodsley House to victory in his last 2.
Balakiref was a winner last time and has only 3lb more to carry. He won over CD on heavy ground last time, but was 10lengths behind Makshoof and is 1lb worse off over today's CD back in July.
My fancy for the race, Charles Darwin, hasn't shown a great deal this season and as a result has tumbled down the handicap. He races today off a mark of 79 having won off 86 before now and also has 2 wins off 78 to his name. He looks like he is now on a winning mark and showed a return to form last time at Warwick where he travelled well through the race and finished strongly to be 2nd. He's not the most consistent of horses but usually runs well at Haydock and at the likely odds is worth taking a chance on.

Selection: Charles Darwin

Good luck,
Gavin

Weekend Roundup...

What a weekend, full of promising opportunities and likely looking winners that all fizzled out when it really mattered.

My big Portland tip, Sirens Gift, took it up going easily, shot clear and looked all over the winner with a 100 yards to go. Having availed myself of the 25/1 early price I made the fatal mistake of counting my chickens (well, a weekend break in Las Vegas actually) and paid the price as he got collared close home to finish 3rd. I didn't see what price he traded 'in-running' but I imagine it was quite short.

A very similar run from Gift Horse the day before (who coincidentally, was also backed from 25/1 into 12/1) ensured the Doncaster sprints eluded me.

And then there was the St Leger, where I got it right by highlighting a Group 1 that Aiden O'Brien wouldn't win but spoiled it all by eliminating all Michael Stoutes runners because I didn't think he would win it either. Look Here was travelling as well as anything 2f out but didn't have the acceleration of the winner when it mattered.

Playfellow took it up going strongly and then faded, Equiano didn't go in the stalls and the other horse I was sweet on hosed up and then at my third attempt-
I get the Placepot up...GOOD TIMES but it only paid £110...BAD TIMES!

(Thanks for all the emails regarding the Placepot and I'll try and make it a regular big meeting feature.)

Oh well, onwards and upwards. We have the Ayr Silver & Gold Cups to look forward too and I'm definitely due a change of luck in these big sprints!

Of the rest of the weekends action;

Aiden O'Brien managed 2 more Group 1 wins and now has amassed 20 of the 26 top race accolades he needs to break the record. Another 6 more and I'll still get my trip to Las Vegas, which according to William Hill is now a 1/5 chance..... I'll get my suitcase.

Zarkava put down a marker for the Arc with an extremely impressive performance and is now a best priced 7/4. If she gets to Longchamp in one piece then it wouldn't surprise me if she went off around Even money or slightly odds-on.

Askar Tau continues his rapid improvement and with his latest win and a 4lb penalty is assured of making the line up for the Cesarewitch. He's improving, he's in form, he stays and he'll go very well. Take the 7/1!

I'll be back in the morning with a couple of fancies.
Until then, Good Luck,
Gavin.

Too much of a good thing......

Gordon Ramsey, Star Wars prequels, Spice Girls reunion, that 6th slice of Pizza, all reminders that you can have too much of a good thing.

And to that list we must now add the Doncaster St Leger meeting. A four day meeting that could easily have been a good quality 3 day event or even a classy 2 day affair.

But instead we had too many mediocre races meaning limited TV coverage and not enough spotlight on the races that meant anything. Yet again, greed gets the better of a racecourse...

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So onto the last, and best, day of the Doncaster meeting. The highlight of today's racing is the Ladbrokes St Leger which I had a look at midweek and decided to oppose Aiden O'Brien with the Oaks winner, Look Here.

Here is the pick of the rest of the card including the re-scheduled Sprint Cup and one last crack at the Placepot.....

1.35 Doncaster

(There was a deadheat in 2005 meaning 11 winners for the past decade)

- 8 of the 11 won last time out
- 8 of the 11 had won at the distance
- 10 of the 11 had won at least half the races then had ran

The 5 winners coming direct from maiden races had all won at the distance.

Not much to go on but it's worth noting that Aiden O'Brien has never won this race and has had 8 attempts this decade.

Barry Hills has a good record in this race and if we can forgive Ouqba's run last time out in a big field sales race he may be value at around 20/1. Another outsider worth noting is Jazz Police. From the all conquering 2-y-o factory of Richard Hannon he has been mentioned quite highly by the trainer and is one to watch out for.

Michael Stoute hasn't won this race since 1979 and his once raced Zacinto is worth taking on at the predicted short price. He may well win but he didn't beat much at Sandown and these conditions are not certain to suit him.

Which leaves me siding with Playfellow from the Michael Jarvis yard. A winner over the distance and already proven on the ground he may be a value alternative to the favourite.


2:05 Doncaster

If ever a horse has been laid out for a race then it has to be Fullanby in Saturday's Portland Handicap. He may have 6lb more to carry than last year but he has shown in his last 3 runs that the engine is as good as ever. The only problem now the day has arrived is the draw (6), he won last year from stall 21 and all week the high draw has come out best. Looking back over previous results when horses drawn low have won, the ground has always been good or good/firm. Best laid plans and all that.....

Of the other 21 runners, D Nicholls has his customary 4 runners and best of these could be Northern Fling. K Ryan who won this 3 years on the trot with Halmahera has got 3 runners Tamagin, Hammadi and Evens And Odds. The last named is probably his best hope and with Dettori on board he should run well.

R Price, trainer of the bang in form favourite Cheveton also has Hoh Hoh Hoh who was 18th last year and comes here off the back of a good win. Cheveton may just struggle in this company as he got beat at Bath off a rating of 66 in June and now runs of 93. Hogmaneigh, who was 3rd in this race 2 years ago, has a decent draw and is not out of it but neither is my substitute for Fullandby; Siren's Gift.

He is the right age and weight, comes from an in form stable and, most importantly, has a great draw. At around 25/1 and with a decent 5lb claimer aboard he should give a good account for himself at decent odds in what looks an ultra competitve sprint.

2:35 Doncaster

Nothing stands out in this race as there has been no real consistency or rock solid form amongst the sprinters this year. A tentative vote goes to Equiano who was 4th in the Nunthorpe when favourite but had previously won the King Stand at Royal Ascot. He beat Takeover Target that day with Abraham Lincoln some way behind.

African Rose's run behind Marchand D'or last time at Deauville is the best piece of form on offer and she had Utmost Respect, US Ranger, Astronomer Royal, Diabolical, Balthazar's Gift and Assertive all behind in that race. There is no obvious reason why any of them should reverse the form and African Rose is a worthy favourite.

M Jarvis's Ancien Regime won a Group 3 at Sandown last time beating Prime Defender by a neck but may find the ground against him as all his winning has been on a sound surface.


Doncaster Placepot Picks

2/5/8 - 8/12/19 - 14/16 - 13 - 3/4 - 10/13/15 = 108 bets

Good luck,

Gavin.

Best thing since sliced bread....

.....Well not quite but it's still pretty good.

Paddy Power

I've had quite a few emails from Nag3 readers (thank you) informing me of a fantastic concession from over the Irish Sea. Paddy Power now offer guaranteed prices on all Early Price races and for those of you who missed out on the 12/1 winner Sunday by taking the Early Price of 7/1, why not give Paddy a try?


http://www.paddypower.com/bet

For those of you not to sure about the offer; Basically if you take 7/1 and your horse wins at 12/1 Paddy will pay you out at the 12/1 but if your horse wins at 5/1 you get paid at 7's.

An excellent and very rare no lose concession.

It's a pitta we weren't aware of this earlier.

--------------


Right, let's try and make a crust by winning some 'dough' at Donny......

Channel 4 have (sun)blest us with some live TV racing today and after yeasterday's disappointing runners, let's hope for better luck today so we can get back on a roll.

1:35 Doncaster

If Shyrl could reproduce her 2nd at Royal Ascot then her 25/1 early price could be made to look very decent indeed come the finish. She ran in the Nunthorpe last time, a Group 1 race against older horses and now back in her own age group could very well surprise. Lord Shanakill has been running well in Group company but this is a drop in distance which I don't think will suit. Mythical Border is hard to evaluate on the basis of one run and could be potentially useful. Bahamian Babe isn't quite up to this company whilst Danehill Destiny ran too badly to be true at the Royal meeting where he was 20 lengths behind Shyrl. Having said all that, I think the winner may well be Senor Mirasol who will like the ground and won well at Tipperary last time.

2:05 Doncaster

An interesting race but not that high on quality. Topweight, Pippa Greene ,winner of 4 of her 8 races likes the soft and this sort of trip and must be high on the short list. Bogside Theatre is consistant and Bollin Felix who keeps making the frame has managed to win a couple both in soft/heavy conditions. Swan Queen is another to like the ground but has not been running well of late. Cool Judgement is my answer to this tricky handicap. He has some good recent runs, likes the soft going and the trip is ideal. He ran with credit in a Chester listed h'cap last time and is from the inform combination of Jarvis/Robinson.

2:40 Doncaster

Sagara twice behind Yeats this season looks to have a great chance of winning a Group race. There is nothing of Yeats quality here, the best being Royal And Regal and Honolulu from the the Aiden O'Brien stable (arrghh!) but I think the main danger may come from Juniper Girl. From the M Bell yard, she made a belated reappearance only 8 days ago and should be all the better for that blowout.

Let's hope for no naan runners.


Friday Fun

Hovis launch their brand new £15 million 2 minute advert during Coronation Street tonight, which fits it nicely with today's post, so what better time to take a trip down memory lane and see a selection of other long forgotten TV ads....




Good luck,
Gavin.

Same again...

After yesterday's close call with the Doncaster Placepot, I thought I'd have another go.

With two winners (7/1 and 3/1) plus one non runner it certainly wasn't a complete disaster and hopefully today can provide more of the same;

1:30 Doncaster
Midnight Cruiser for the in form Hannon/Moore combination looks the answer to a difficult opener. Crackdown and Yorksters Girl both ran below previous form last time on soft ground. The fly in the ointment could be the unraced Jarvis horse Secrecy.

2:00 Doncaster
Allegretto boasts by far the best form contesting Group 1 & 2's in the majority of her career,but she has shown all her best form on a sound surface and 1m 6f in these conditions is going to take some getting. It could be worth taking a chance on Gull Wing who has lots of form on soft/heavy ground albeit in lower company but that said, this is not the best Group 2 race ever run.

2:35 Doncaster
A very difficult race with a huge prize. Any number of these could win from any draw. After yesterday it seems the high numbers may have the advantage which would rule out the fancied duo Foundation Room and Art Princess. However, I think the answer lays in the middle Pure Poetry, VivaRonaldo and my e/w value Talking Hands. All 3 have leading chances and can come standside if that's where the best ground proves to be. The selection rattled of a hat-trick earlier in the season and stayed on strongly in the Solario at Sandown to be a 2 length 4th to Sri Putra. This distance might be short of what he needs now but with this going these 2-y-o's are going to struggle to get home.

3:10 Doncaster
It looks like a one horse race and Rainbow View who won the Sweet Solera last month in impressive fashion looks banker material.

3:45 Doncaster
Interesting race again with Red Dune not sure to like the conditions and Dream Day who ran well in these conditions earlier in the season having to overcome a 97 day break. I think the value could be in Nijoom Dubai who is dropped in class. Her last 5 runs have all come in Group company and whilst not running brilliantly she didn't disgrace herself. This is definitely a bit weaker than the French 1000 Guineas she contested back in May!

4:20 Doncaster
Not a large field for this 1m2f h'cap but one that any of the 9 runners could win. Drill Sergeant won well at Beverley last time making most of the running and I think he could well do the same today. This race could easily be set up for another runner to steal but I liked the way he kept on last time and won going away in the end. Of the others, the biggest danger looks to be Swinging Sixties from another in form combination Jarvis/Robinson.

Placepot perm: 2/6 - 1/2 - 9/10/17 - 1 - 5/9/10 - 2/6 = 72 bets

4:50 Doncaster
Although this falls outside the placepot it is a 22 runner sprint and I just have to have a go.
As with most of these types of sprint, I think the answer lies with D Nicholls He has his usual 4 runners Obe Gold, Northern Dare, Gift Horse and Joseph Henry. If he had a better draw, I would say Joseph Henry was a banker bet for the frame and if earlier races proves draw 2 is not a disadvantage then I will be getting stuck in. As the high draw is expected to be best I will say that Gift Horse could well be just that as this former winner of the Stewards Cup had an excellent 5th to Fullandby in last years Portland on this course and looks sure to run well. He has twice been beaten by Earsmedic recently but that horse has draw 1 today and could struggle to confirm form.

Good Luck,
Gavin.

Placepot punting....

Hello Dear readers.

The saying goes 'that a change is as good as a rest' and as I have a four year old son who's just started school, a betting shop to run and hundreds of emails to wade through I guess there's no chance of a rest.

'And now for something completely different...'

Change it is then, and in honour of Monty Python famous introduction, let's have a crack at the Doncaster Placepot. (Main selections in bold)


1:30 Doncaster
A very competitive nursery where it could all go down at the first hurdle. However, I will make a speculative choice for Lucky Redback and add Cooks Endeavour for the Placepot.

2:00 Doncaster
Again a very difficult race in which all 4 could win. It could be worth taking a chance on the outsider Docofthebay but for the Placepot I'll do all 4.

2:35 Doncaster
Last years winner Galeota looks to have a great chance of a repeat win. He will like the slow ground more than the others, Benbaun is the biggest danger winner of the 2007 Abbaye at Longchamps and he has contested only Group races for the last 2 years but this ground is slower than ideal.

3:10 Doncaster
A 2nd to Elnawin at Newmarket last time out gives Bonnie Charlie a leading chance of getting back to the winning habit but I think its worth taking her on with Fitz Flyer who finished 5th in that Newmarket race. Given too much to do that day, the winner and runner up had flown by the time he made his move. A move positive ride should reverse the placings.

3:45 Doncaster
A very open handicap, any one of a dozen could win. A number of these have won several races already this season- Keep Discovering and Harrison George both have leading chances. The likely fav. Carniolan looks to be better than his handicap mark at present, he is only 7lb worse off with Keep Discovering for the 5L he won by at Ascot and should confirm the form. The value in the race could be The Jostler who was a winner last time at Newmarket.

4:20 Doncaster
A fast and furious sprint to finish day one of the Leger meeting. Grudge who finally broke his duck last time at Chester and Northern Bolt both have leading chances but I will stick by Judge 'N Jury. His defeat of Gentle Guru at Sandown makes excellent reading with that horse having won twice since. He couldn't quite follow up at Windsor under his penalty but he does have the better end of the draw and looks good Placepot material.

Placepot: 1/15 - 1/2/3/4 - 1/4 - 1/3 - 7/11 - 3/8 = 128 bets

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Good news, better news and Great news....

First the Good News, I'm not going to mention TTS (well apart from this once) in today's post.

----------------

The Better News, I think I've found a Group 1 race Aiden O'Brien is not going to win ( stop me if you've heard this one before!)

The LADBROKES St. Leger. (Doncaster, This Saturday)

The trends for this race are very good and some in particular are amongst the strongest found all year.

- 8 of the last 11 Leger winners were sent off favourite.
- All 11 were from the first 3 in the betting.
- No winner has started over 8/1 since 1994.

- 8 of the last 12 St Leger winners won last time out
- 8 of the last 10 winners had won earlier in the season
- 9 of the last 10 winners had recorded Group race victories
- 8 of the last 10 winners had run in either the English, French or Irish Derby.

- Interestingly, Sir Michael Stoute has never won the St Leger

If we exclude the Stoute runners and concentrate on the market leaders I think we need look no further than Frozen Fire and Look Here.

With Aiden O'Brien proving a nemesis to me in the Group 1 races earlier this season I am reluctant to pass over Frozen Fire but one more trend has me convinced I can beat him this time;

- The last 5 Epsom Oaks winners to line up have all finished 1st or 2nd.

So with this years Oaks heroine looking set to take part and Aiden O'Brien having doubts about the favourite staying the trip I will side with Look Here.

The trends seem to suggest a good run is on the cards and at around 9/2 she looks a great bet to finally get me one up on Mr O'Brien.

Selection: Look Here

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The Great news.

Some of you are probably aware of this already, but for those of you still in the dark, my great friend and founder of this Blog, Matt Bisogno, has decided to re-enter the Blogging world and basically, carry on where he left off.

He's leaving me to carry on his good work, here at Nag3, and setting up afresh at a new location.

You can expect the usual ramblings and tips, system reviews and other assorted miscellanea all delivered in the usual un-equivocal Matt style.

Find him at his new home here;

http://www.geegeez.co.uk/

Good luck,
Gavin.

12/1 TTS winner.....

Hopefully, all our loyal TTS readers (old and new) are now celebrating another good day and are really looking forward to the next jump racing fixture.

Yesterday's exciting finish to the 3.40 at Fontwell saw Irish Whispers stay on very strongly to get up close home, at the very rewarding odds of 12/1, and give us our second winner. I would guess that we here at Nag Towers were not the only ones shouting him home and though our other selections didn't fare so well, we did finish the day well in front.

In fact this means that we are now +12.5 points to the good or £250 for £20 stakes. Not bad for 1 weeks work.

I did have, though, a few emails from our readers who, while very happy at backing a winner, were disappointed because they had taken an Early Price of 7/1.

Basically, I think you've just been unlucky this time and I don't think we'll see too many of these types of situations during the season. It isn't very often a horse drifts from 13/2 out to 12/1 and still wins! (But, at least you did get a nice priced winner.)

I'd also like to point out, that backing horses on Betfair the night before is not a good idea. The liquidity in the market isn't strong enough at this stage to form the market correctly and we are seeing our TTS recommendations accounting for a large majority of the market pool. This is resulting in our horses trading at much lower odds than they should be and a lot shorter than the price available nearer the race 'off'.

If you are able to wait until nearer the 'off' I think you will find you can get a better price and if you can't bet that close to race time then you may be better off taking the Betfair SP.



For those of you still wanting to get in on the TTS action - it's not too late, simply go to;

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/

where you can sign up for the very reasonable price of £37.

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To help those who don't quite understand the betting terminology we use on the Nag3 blog, here is a quick Betting Glossary;

Starting Price (S.P.): Odds of your horse, always 1 point less than the last show

Early Price: Bookmaker morning odds of your horse, always 1 point less then the S.P.

Taking the price: Guaranteed way of ensuring your horse drifts in the market

Leaving it to S.P.: Guaranteed way of ensuring your horse is backed in the market

Joint favourite:
i) Roast beef on a Sunday
ii) Popular dodgy cigarette
iii) the other horse that wins when you back a fancied runner

Beaten favourite: Fancied horse that its jockey has whipped too many times

Nap: Something your horse does in the middle of a race

Weight: Something your horse does at the start of a race

Stalls: See weight

Double: What you need in the bar after your horse gets beat

Treble: What you need in the bar after your horses get beat

Refused: try asking your bookie for credit



Good luck,
Gavin.

Saved by the All Weather....

It's a Saturday washout with just the two All Weather meetings surviving the recent deluge.

This means our much anticipated next TTS runner is now not running and we will have to wait until tomorrow to see if racing takes place.

Talking of TTS, and let's face it I have been talking about TTS a lot this week, the £1 offer has now closed and the price is now £37.

It may be more than £1 but it still represents great value and is still less than previous seasons.

For those of you who have not heard, we have had two runners so far; an 11/2 winner and a 4/1 fourth. A great start and one which we hope to continue.

You can read the sales page here;

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/

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With just the racing from Kempton to have a look at this afternoon we might as well try our luck with the first three races.

All on Channel 4 I'll try an Each Way TV Patent (3 singles, 3 doubles and a treble) and see what happens.

I often wonder who thinks up these bet names. I've been in the betting shop business 20 odd years and seen lots of different bet variations in that time and while some are pretty obvious e.g. Lucky 15 has 15 bets, a Heinz has 57 bets (because the baked beans maker have 57 varieties) and a Blackjack, unsurprisingly, has 21 bets some of the others just don't make sense.

I mean, why is a Patent called a Patent? or a Yankee a Yankee?

Then we have the more exotic bets like a Fido (5 horses, 20 bets), Flag (4 horses 23 bets), Blockbuster (5 horses, 10 bets) or the truly bizarre Liverpool Around the Clock (3 horses and 13 bets).

If anyone does have any idea or even does a bet with a strange name, let me know in the comments box at the end of the post.

Obviously, not the most important issue in horse racing but one that does puzzle me.

Anyway, enough rambling, here are the selections;



2:20 Kempton

Flashmans Papers is taken to beat the favourite Elnawin. You may remember the selection winning at the Royal meeting at 100/1 and then turning out 2 days later to finish 4th. His latest run was against older horses in the rearranged Nunthorpe at Newmarket. He was outclassed that day but the drop back to his own age group and the step up to 6F will both be in his favour. Elnawin is the obvious danger after his valuable win at Newmarket but its a fair bit different going round Kempton on the all weather and I think he could be the lay of the day.

2:50 Kempton

A cracking race worthy of any Saturday and a sure sign that All Weather racing is on the up.

In the race itself, I think its worth taking a chance with the globe trotting Blue Monday. He had his first run, in 2 years, back in this country, three weeks ago. He has contested 6 Group 1's throughout the world and boasts superior form to his rivals. The favourite Many Volumes from Henry Cecils yard is on the upgrade and boasts the best current form but his wins have come in small fields and he has never run in Group company. Galactic Star has been knocking on the door in group company recently but he has not encountered this artificial surface before. Young Mick and Hattan who both seem to have been around forever are not without a chance if they are on a good day.

3:20 Kempton

Despite there being 16 runners in a very competitive handicap I can't see any further than the top weight and favourite Premio Loco. To me he looks the banker bet on the whole card. The form of his latest success is rock solid, it was over CD and that race has thrown up a whole host of winners. I believe this horse is capable of winning in Listed company at some stage this season and can take this on his way to better things.

Good luck if your playing today,
Gavin.

F in Friday....

Friday Finish

Last reminder for everyone that the TTS £1 offer finishes today, after which the price will increase to £37.

So, if you haven't bought it yet the question is ......Why haven't you? It's only £1!

Last chance

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/

Surely it's worth a pound of anyone's money?

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Friday FAQ

For those of you who have purchased and are having Login or Member Site problems, please visit our FAQ site first as we have had unprecedented support emails and we are still sorting through them.

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/FAQ.htm

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Friday Fancy

After yesterdays Each Way 4th (don't they always do that? Well, apart from when there's a 16 runner handicap when they finish 5th) and a nice 7/2 WINNER it seems things are still on the up.

It has to be said though, today's racing is really shocking for a Friday! With no TTS runners either, it all looks a bit boring and in need of something special.

So just for a bit of fun, here are 4 horses for today that I'm going to do in an Each Way Lucky 15.

Please bear in mind that they are all big prices and are purely speculative!

Hailson Chancer 3.50 Lingfield
American Art 4.20 Lingfield
Lisathedaddy 4.50 Lingfield
Hawa Khana 5.20 Lingfield

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Friday Fun

Reported in today's Mirror and definitely worth checking out is the Headstand Surfer who does, well...Surfing while doing headstands!

I'm no expert but I would say this is pretty difficult.....

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2008/09/05/video-the-upside-down-surfer-115875-20724254/

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Friday Finale

Lastly, A big thank you to all that have bought this seasons TTS and let's hope the results continue as they have started!

Good Luck,
Gavin.

Time is running out...

Just a quick post to let everyone know (if they didn't already!!) that the great £1 TTS offer will be finishing tomorrow.

There's still time to jump on the bandwagon but you'd better be quick....

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/

From tomorrow the price will be going up to £37 for the TTS manual. The Silver and Gold Subscription services will remain at the same price.


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In between sifting through over 500 TTS emails I've spent my time looking through today's runners.

I've got a couple of fancies and, as always, feel free to do what you like with them! (Back Them, Lay them or Ignore Them)


3:00 Redcar

Paris Bell at 12/1 has a lot going for him as he loves the ground, this course and the distance is spot on. He hasn't been running that well of late and as a result his rating has slipped from a winning high of 80 down to today's mark of 66. He usually does all his winning in the autumn months and I think its worth taking a chance that he bounces back to form today.

4:20 Salisbury

Just Like A Woman. After a string of 2nd's she has run better on her last couple of runs than her finishing position might suggest. Sent off favourite at Newmarket last time out she only managed a fair 6th, beaten 5L by The Jostler and I really fancy her to reverse that form. In that race the less well fancied Lady Aquitaine finished 4th 3L in front of the selection but she must have quicker ground so any rain will dampen her chance.


Good luck,
Gavin.

P.S. Don't forget TTS for £1. The clock is ticking....

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/

TTS Dream Start.....

In 20 years as both a bookmaker and punter I can honestly say that I have never wanted a horse to win as much as I'm Your Man in yesterday's 3.35 Sedgefield.

I know it's only one runner in what will be a very long season but I also know that we have had a record number of subscribers and most of them are new to TTS.

After paying just a pound a lot of these new subscribers are ready to judge us on our early performance and I felt it was important for us to get off to a flyer....

And a flyer we certainly got, I'm Your Man (at 11/2) was probably the easiest winner of the week and came from a stable that isn't exactly high profile. I'm sure, with all due respect to Mrs E. Slack, that the trainer wouldn't have been too high on anyones list of trainers to follow this season.

In fact, looking at the Racing Post trainer information there was nothing to suggest she was a trainer to follow at all, let alone at Sedgefield!

But that's what you love about TTS, we dig deeper than the Racing Post stats and we unearth these little nuggets and bring them to the attention of you, our customers. All that hard work and labour intensive data mining has paid off with our first runner.

Can anyone possibly be regretting paying a pound now? (It's still not too late, the offer will run until Friday......)

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/


Right, enough of the backslapping and time for a reality check.

Great though it was to have such an easy, big priced winner with our first runner it is important to realise that it's not going to be like that every day. We can't possibly expect every runner to perform that well and we will select plenty of losers throughout the season.

If you're still paper trading carry on with that and if you are betting them, whatever stake your using please stay at that level.

It's very easy to get carried away but we must keep our feet on the ground and see TTS as a season long investment.

Great result but there's a lonnnnggg way to go!

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One final thing, for those of you having trouble with the Members Site please try our new FAQ;

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/FAQ.htm

Good luck,
Gavin.

More TTS feedback.....

It's been a very busy weekend here at Nag3 towers with the launch of this seasons TTS, responding to the hundreds of emails we have had since then and digesting the feedback from our recent customer survey.

Matt's so stressed out by it all he's off to France at the weekend to recover leaving me behind to carry on the good work. He's handed me the keys to the palatial Nag Towers so it's not all bad.

Anyway, the upshot of it all is that there are a few points that need clarifying;

1) There will be no emails sent out this TTS season. The days selections will be posted to the members site which can be accessed using your login details.

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/member/member.php

Everyone who has subscribed will get free access to the Members Site for this month.

2) There is an option in the Members Site to upgrade your subscription to the Silver or Gold packages. Again, login to the Members area and the upgrade option is to the right hand side of the page under the title Add/Renew Subscription.

3) A lot of you have asked why we haven't sent / posted any selections yet. That's simply because the TTS season runs from September - April and there were no jumps meetings yesterday. Our first selection will be running this afternoon at Sedgefield.

If you have any problems logging in or need clarification on anything TTS related please email:-

admin@trainertrackstats.com


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Over the last couple of weeks my selections have, at last, begun to run with some credit. We've had a few winners, a few placed horses, a few very close calls (I thought Vanderlin was particularly unlucky not to have won on Saturday) and of course some losers too.

For those of you bored with all the TTS talk I've dug out another couple of E/W chances which hopefully can keep the momentum going.

In fact I'm going to do an each way Patent with these two fancies and todays TTS horse.

5:05 Southwell

Green Diamond trained by M Johnston looks to be the pick of a very modest bunch. His 2nd at Lingfield 3 weeks ago makes quite good reading in the context of what the rest have achieved. There is only one previous course winner in the field, Ocean Legend and he along with the top weighted St Trinians look to be the main dangers. Of the others Mahadee and Indy Driver have possibilities, but I can't see them troubling the selection and he should make all the running.

5:30 Goodwood

Topweighted Salient was my tip at Goodwood last Sunday but he finished a disappointing 9th having set a furious pace. This race is significantly weaker but as a result he has an extra stone to carry from top weight, but so long as he doesn't go off too fast he could be a great E/W bet at rewarding odds. Of the others last years winner Ivory Lace carries 6lb less now and would have had a great chance but for the going (has to have it fast) and has the beating of Phluke on that running. Compton's Eleven and Purus could be the biggest dangers as both are back down to below their last winning ratings and have form on softer going.

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All Weather Racing

The undisputed Marmite of British horse racing. You either love it or hate it!
Personally, I hate Marmite but I love AW racing especially in the two months January & February when they race every day.

But whatever you're feelings on the matter it's here to stay, so we might as well look for a way to make it pay....

To help us out, first up will be the production of Trainer Sand Stats which will be released in October. This will be a FREE download and will be available from the TTS Members Area.

Just another little FREEBIE for all our loyal customers.

Also, I have a little system that doesn't produce many runners but does have an excellent strike rate and I'll share that with you all a little later on in the month.
I don't usually follow the system through the Summer but one horse that would have qualified is Askar Tau and he's now 4 from 4 and favourite for the Cesarewitch.

So this Winter I'm going on a mission to change the AW naysayers perception of Sand Racing, after all a winner is a winner be it on grass or sand.

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Finally, one last mention of TTS today. Remember it's still available for just £1.
Get it here quick because time is running out....

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/

Good luck,
Gavin.

TTS developments....

Just a quick post today to let you know of a few developments with TTS following feedback from our reader survey.

1) A Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) page is in development and, hopefully, will be available at the end of the week.

2) There is now an updated version of the TTS manual available to download which has a quick link on each page to the Members Site.

And as a reminder, you can login to the Members Site at;

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/member/member.php

The TTS download and the daily selections can be accessed from here.

3) The offer for the TFS free download has now expired but you can still get the Trainer Track Stats (until this Friday) for just £1....

That's right, the full NH 08'09 Season's TTS for just £1.

Click here to sign up; http://www.trainertrackstats.com/


Get it before Friday to take advantage of this amazing offer.

Good luck,
Gavin.