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Saturday, 30 August 2008

TTS First Impressions: What Do You Think?

That girl (or guy) who caught your eye across the crowded room, dear reader: what first attracted you to her (or him)? Was it love at first sight? A besotted infatuation? Or just a drunken fumble?

These are the questions I find myself asking tonight, as I nurse my blistered tootsies after the first footy match of the season (the mighty Southgate County 4th XI served up a footballing masterclass for their younger, fitter 3rd XI counterparts... actually, we were lucky to win 3-2, with yours truly on the scoresheet!)

As you will know, if you've been here for any length of time, we try to respond to the things you want on this 'ere blog, and that extends to TTS as well. We want to know what you think, even though the tapes have yet to rise on the first jumping action of our season - which will hopefully be at Sedgefield on Tuesday.

So I wonder if you might be so kind as to give me a little feedback... no prize draws, just five very short questions to get some 'audience participation' from you, our loyal readers.


Whether you've already got your copy of TTS, or plant to soon, or have no intention of getting it, we're interested in your thoughts.

And we thank you in advance for helping us to make it as good as it can be, by taking into account your opinions.

Good weekend to you all and, if you've taken a copy of TTS already, thanks a million for your support! Lots of you have! :o)

Matt

 

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Veni, Vidi, Buyi...

With great apologies to my Latin teacher....'I Came, I Saw, I Purchased!

And purchase you did as TTS sales went through the roof on it's first day of release.

It looks like you all know a great deal when you see one!

If you haven't snapped it up yet, there's still time.


A quick reminder, TTS '08-'09 Season is on sale now for just £1....

CLICK HERE TO GET TTS FOR £1

This offer will be available for 1 week only.

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A nice 7/2 winner yesterday keeps up my mini-revival and anybody who's been following Swords since I 'bigged' it up got a lovely 13/2 winner last night when he won again.

I have a couple more for today and hopefully they can keep the good run going;


3:50 Ripon
2 weeks ago in the Gt St Wilfred I really fancied Joseph Henry on the form book but had to rule him out because of his low draw. He ran a cracker to finish 9th (2nd on the unfavoured stands side), but as he has a much better draw today (17) he makes a great deal of appeal.
It's a typical 20 runner sprint with Nicholls having his usual handful and I feel he has the main dangers too with Northern Fling(16) and Machinist(20). In fact it could be worth doing a Nicholls F/C and T/C combination as his 4th runner Fremen is drawn 11 and not totally without a chance.

3:25 Chester
Vanderlin looks a solid each-way investment as he has 2 wins, 3 2nds and a 3rd from 7 runs at Chester which is seen as a specialists track. He is 1 from 1 over trip and 14 win and place efforts from 23 on the ground. From draw 6, the 9 y-o has the pace to be handy and usually finishes with good effect. He is 6lb lower than when winning this race last year.
Of the others 3 y-o Underworld trained by in form M Johnston looks the main danger and topweighted Ordnance Row has e/w claims. One who might surprise at good odds is Celtic Sultan a C & D winner earlier in the season.



For those of you still not wanting to trust my own selections here are the Trends for todays Solario Stakes;

2.35 Sandown

- 9 of the last 10 winners had lost their maiden tag
Great stat but unfortunately doesn't eliminate any!

- No filly has won in the last 10 years
That at least gets rid of Nashmiah

- Only one horse in the last 10 years was once raced
That's better, Parisian Art - Patricians Glory - Prince Siegfried - Sri Putra and The Cheka can all go.

- According to the Racing Post the last 10 winners were all by a Sire with a stamina index of at least 7.6f
I think this means Prime Delivery can't win.

Which leaves 4:- Cry of Freedom, Installment, Oratory and Talking Hands.

Interestingly 6 of the last 10 winners were beaten last time out and with Talking Hands having more runs than is usual for a winner of this race I am going to concentrate on the two Richard Hannon horses.

It's difficult to split the pair, so at the likely high odds I'm going to split my stake instead.
Let's go 60/40 on Installment & Oratory.

Good Luck,
Gavin.

P.S. Don't forget TTS is still available for just £1.....

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/

 

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Friday, 29 August 2008

The Final Countdown.....

No, not a song by dodgy Scandavian hard rock band Europe. No, not even Carol Vordeman's last appearance on CH4's flagship quiz show. And certainly not that 1980 film starring Kirk Douglas and Martin Sheen where a US Aircraft Carrier goes back in time to Pearl Harbour......

What I'm on about is the last few hours until you can get your hands on this Seasons TTS. As our countdown clock ticks away to Zero Hour the tension at Nag Towers is growing by the minute.

I haven't been this excited since Christmas 1976 when I got my first Scalextric. As for Matt, I'm pretty sure he's going to make good on his promise and spontaneously combust.

In case you haven't heard the news, we're going to give TTS away this Season for just £1....

And in case you're wondering, Yes we are mad. In fact the men in white coats will be along shortly.

This is a limited time only offer, so from Midday today go to

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/

and get your copy for just £1.

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To try and take my mind off all the excitement I have had a look through todays racing and come up with a couple of fancies for today;

2:55 Chester
First up and hopefully one to cheer Mick Channon in his hospital bed is South Cape. I put him up as the main danger to my selection at Goodwood on Sunday(where he was a N/R) and he is taken to go one better than the last time he ran at Chester. A win over C & D on good ground last September shows he handles the conditions and at around 8/1 looks a nice price.

Of the others, Keep Discovering for M Johnston and Fathsta look to be the main dangers.

5:30 Sandown.
Michael Stoute's Kingdom Of Fife, winner here 2 weeks ago, is taken to follow up with a slight concern regarding the quicker going. He really relished the uphill finish when he outstayed his rivals and meets 4th placed Palmerin on 9lb (including jockey allowance) worse terms for 3 1/4L.

Of the others Frankies mount Storyland and, winner last time out, Flying Applause could give the selection most to do.

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FRIDAY FUN

The Edinburgh Fringe has been taking place recently and they've voted on the best jokes told during the Comedy Festival.

If these are the 10 best I think I'm glad I stayed at home....

1. Zoe Lyons: "I can't believe Amy Winehouse self-harms. She's so irritating she must be able to find someone to do it for her."

2. Andrew Laurence: "Most of us have a skeleton in the cupboard. David Beckham takes his out in public."

3. Lloyd Langford: "My girlfriend said 'did you know that hippopotamuses kill more people every year than guns?'. 'Yes,' I said, 'but a gun is easier to conceal'."

4. Josie Long: "When I was a kid I asked my mum what a couple was and she said 'oh, two or three'. And she wonders why her marriage didn't work."

5. Tim Vine: "Velcro. What a rip-off."

6. Stephen Grant: "The Scots invented hypnosis, chloroform and the hypodermic syringe - wouldn't it be easier just to talk to a woman?"

7. Edward Aczel: "So far Bird Flu has only killed 47 people. By the time it ends, it's going to have killed 37 million. It's got to get going, hasn't it, if it's going to be the pandemic we've all been hoping for."

8. Joan Rivers: "Grandchildren can be annoying. How many times can you go 'And the cow goes moo and the pig goes oink?' It's like talking to a supermodel."

9. Tom Stade: "I like Jesus but he loves me, so it's awkward."

10. Jeff Kreisler: "People were outraged because of Barack Obama's spiritual advisor. I think it's great he had one. Who was George Bush's spiritual advisor? Jim Beam? Johnnie Walker? Jack Daniels?"

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Don't forget, TTS for £1 at midday.....

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/

Good luck,
Gavin

 

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Thursday, 28 August 2008

Twas The Eve of TTSmas...

Excitement is close to the proverbial fever pitch, dear reader, here at Nag Towers, downtown Hackney. The reason for such uncontrolled anticipation? Need I even say... Yes, it is less than 26 hours until the big launch of TrainerTrackStats 2008/9, and I have news of a ridiculously special offer, even by my own generous standards!

I told you a bit about what TTS is, and what it can do for you, yesterday. And today, I'm going to tell you how you can get a copy...

OK, so here's the deal:

YOU CAN GET THE TTS MANUAL FOR £1

Sorry for shouting in red, and no, we haven't quite gone barking mad.... Let me explain.

Since starting up TrainerTrackStats some years ago now, one of the things I've learned is that for many people, they are either not sure which horses qualify, or they just don't have the time. Heck, in some cases, people simply can't be bothered to compare the manual against the next day's racing page! I know, I know, it came as a surprise to me too! ;o)

So this is how things will work this season:

Tomorrow at midday you go to the TTS Site and click the 'Get TTS For £1' button. When you do this, you will actually be presented with THREE options, as follows:

- Bronze: £1 for the TTS manual, PLUS 30 days' access to the member site where qualifiers will be published.

- Silver: £87 for the TTS manual, PLUS a half season's access to the member site where qualifiers will be published (i.e. up to Christmas).

- Gold: £147 for the TTS manunal, PLUS access to the member site where qualifiers will be published for the entire season, i.e. to end April 2009.

I want to be absolutely clear about a couple of things here...

1) By taking TTS for £1 you will be signed up to a monthly subscription. After 30 days, if you still wish to have access to the members' area, where all qualifiers are posted, you need do nothing. You will be billed £37 thirty days from when you signed up, and monthly thereafter.

2) If you do not wish to have access to the members' site and instead would rather identify qualifiers yourself, that's absolutely fine. You get the manual for £1, and there are no strings attached (save for the one above, which you may cut at any time).

3) If you know you want to get the subscription, which is exactly the same as the email versions from previous seasons, then there are healthy discounts for taking a season ticket or a half-season ticket. In fact, the cost comes down from £1.19 a day for monthly subscribers, to just 60p a day with the season ticket. [Given the prices your average tipping line charges, I hope you consider this at least a fair price...]

4) If you start with a £1 trial, you may upgrade your membership at any time to half season or season ticket.

5) There will be NO refunds for TTS! Why? Because a) we're charging you a quid(!!), and b) you have plenty of time to decide whether or not to continue receiving the members' information.

If you don't think the above is fair, then TTS will not be for you. I mean, charging 100 pence for a product with a proven track record, and not offering a refund is pretty rich, isn't it?! Ahem.

Enough already... tomorrow.... midday.... get TTS.

Then, from 1st September (in fact, 2nd September will be the first jumping action), enjoy comparing your idea of the qualifiers against the official view, and get your 'TTS bearings'.

Cancel your subscription if you want to before 30 days have elapsed, and you will never be charged a penny more.

To be honest, Gavin and I are taking a pretty big risk here. In the worst case, we will sell a helluva lot of £1 items and lose money on the deal. But that's a short term view... You see, even if that happens, we'll have put TTS in front of a lot of people who wouldn't otherwise have seen it, and they'll have a chance to decide for themselves whether or not Messrs. Priestley and Bisogno are worth doing business with.

In my book, that's a win win already. :o)

I actually like being somebody trusted in a sea of unknown fish, many of whom have big sharp teeth. And if that means I make less money sometimes, what the hey (as they say in the States - sorry for that!).

But we're not daft. It's a calculated gamble on our part: we know from past experience that roughly a third of people who sign up for the guide also at least try the subscription service. Sometimes its been as high as two fifths and sometimes as low as one fifth. Whatever happens, Gavin and I remain committed to providing value for money and never leaving the recipient feeling short changed.

So, I hope to see you on the inside.... :oP

Matt

p.s. Did I mention that you can get it from midday tomorrow at www.TrainerTrackStats.com?!

 

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Wednesday, 27 August 2008

Passing The Elbow: The Finishing Touches...

It's a bizarre feeling really, dear reader, putting together a jumps package to keep us warm through the Winter, when the weather outside is making us cold in Summer. Quite topsy turvy.

No matter, for the fruits of Gavin's and my labour are nearly ripe - perhaps an analogy involving the ripeness of your humble scribes' collective fruits was not the best, but you know what I mean...

In case you've been living under a stone for the last couple of weeks (or perhaps just on holiday), TrainerTrackStats (or TTS), the Winter version of TrainerFlatStats, will be ready for release on Friday at midday, to much fanfare - or at least a bloke with a kazoo tootling a reveille.

To get you (further) in the mood for this auspicious event, I've got a little something for you. More on that in a minute.

First, I just want to touch on what TTS is, and what it isn't.

TTS is NOT a guaranteed winner a day at odds of 8/13.
TTS is NOT an occasional 66/1 winner finding tool.
TTS does NOT have runners every day.
TTS is NOT a retirement plan.
TTS will NOT make you rich beyond your wildest imaginings.
TTS DOES have losing runs. Sometimes they're nasty, and go on for DAYS.

But...

TTS IS a consistent, statistics-based winner-finding tool.
TTS DOES sometimes have lots of runners (especially on Saturdays)
TTS DOES provide loads of winners at odds of up to 14/1.
TTS DOES keep you entertained throughout the Winter.
TTS CAN put you in front with your betting.
TTS CAN allow you to enjoy your betting, by winning a bit.

And.....

TTS DOES WORK!

Over the past two jumps seasons (i.e. from September 2006 to April 2007, and the same period 2007-8), TTS has delivered its followers - of whom a good number are reading this now - just over 160 points profit to Betfair odds (after commissions have been deducted).

16 months, 160 points profit. Einstein is not required to do the math on this one: that's ten points a month on average. If a point to you is £20, then that's worth £200 a month to you. If you bet £50, then it's £500.

Like I say, there are no ridiculous claims of retirement here. Let's face it, all those pro's being interviewed on Racing UK and Attheraces who look like they've bought their ensembles from Oxfam are testament - lest we needed reminding - that professional punters are few, and they enjoy a meagre living for the most part.

If you would rather buy the stereotypes that the media portray, of wide boys and loaded bookies, then indulge yourself in the recent Panorama on BBC's iPlayer: an atrocious piece of lazy misconception reinforcing claptrap on a truly innovative platform.

Reality is a little different. The bookies now use betfair as much as the punters, and have become traders. Most won't even take a decent bet any more unless they can 'arb it' (i.e. back it at a bigger price on betfair than they've just laid you).

So, if you want to revel in the belief that there are lots of millionaires made from punting, then far be it from me to disabuse you of that halcyon (but vastly inaccurate) notion.

If however you believe that horseracing is a pastime or hobby - or maybe even, like me, you have a passion for it; and if you think that breaking even over the course of a year constitutes at least a minor victory, then you may enjoy this.

Phew! Deep breath....

Now that the soapbox is safely tucked away (until next time) - well it is still the home of racing ranting! - back to that little something I have for you.

If you right click the link below and select 'Save As', you will be able to download TTS Lite, a taster version of the manual that is available from Friday.

There are, as you should expect by now, no catches: download it, have a look at it, and I hope you enjoy it.

You may note on most pages that there are quotations in boxes. These are some of the testimonials I've received since the turn of the year - there were many more before I decided to start collecting some of them - and they are all genuine and unsolicited.

These people have enjoyed TTS in the past, and this season I am planning to make it impossible for you to ignore the allure! More tomorrow.

But now... if you haven't already done so... download and - I hope - enjoy. Feel free to comment in the space below.


Ciao Pronto!
Matt

p.s. If you've ever wondered what I look like - and I hope you haven't! - you can see my 'in front of the cameras' video debut here.

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Monday, 25 August 2008

Winners and losers.......

That's now the end of the tipping competition and I'd like to say a big thank you to everybody who entered and well done to everyone who managed to make a profit on the week.


The Final Table looked like this;

pricewise987..........+ 22 points THE WINNER
micmac.................. + 19.67
The Lone Ronger.. + 19.33
Shorthead.............. +13.75
bonnie fielder........ +12.50
The Kernel............ +4
Gavin................... +3.91
Tess the Dog......... +3.75
poor choice............ +2.96
huddy.................... +1.92
Cornish Geriatric. +1.58
KENSFANCY....... +0.39
Rays Rides............ +0.16

Firstly, no your eyes do not deceive you - I did indeed finish 6th and I showed a profit. A lovely 10/1 winner yesterday was enough to save my blushes and repair a bit of my damaged reputation.

It was also nice to see Matt finish with -12 points. That's a fiver he now owes me!

The real winner though was pricewise987 who picked 7/1 winner Signor Peltro to come from just off the pace and get up on the line. The 25/1 poke All the Good set the week up nicely, with Signor Peltro sealing a very healthy profit of +22 points.

Very nice picking and congratulations on a hard fought victory.

Micmac picked 4/1 winner Kylacchy Storm and a non runner yesterday so he also got in front of long time leader the Lone Ronger who must surely be kicking himself for missing Saturday.

Shorthead and bonnie fielder couldn't find another winner and finished 4th and 5th respectively.

In total we had 172 entries but only 53 finishers and just 13 people showed a profit.

Of those that completed the week, 3 of you got the lowest score possible (-14 points) but I will spare your blushes and keep the names to myself!!

(You know who you are Lucky, Celine & earlyriser.....whoops!)

Matt was only saved the ultimate embarrassment by giving 2 non runners on Wednesday.


I hope you all enjoyed it and though it's been quite hard work collating the entries it has been very interesting to see the wide range of horses chosen and we've had some very nice, big priced winners including 10/1, 16/1 and 25/1 twice.

This also meant that pricewise987 and micmac will share the highest priced winner at 25/1

The winners be emailed shortly with details of their prizes and hopefully we can get a photo on the blog of pricewise987 with the shiny trophy.

If you didn't get the chance to take part this time or you would like to do it all again then I will be running a new competition in November. I'll let you know more nearer the time....

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Bank Holiday Blues

Another Bank Holiday, another wet day in South Wales and another poor days Bank Holiday racing with nothing on terrestial TV. Good work BHB! (Though I guess I can't blame them for the weather.)

Nevermind, I'll still have a go at finding a winner.

3.55 Kempton. The horse that caught my eye in this race was the bottom weight Crystany. Previously trained by Henry Cecil she has shown some pretty decent form in Listed Contests and has now changed stables to join John Dunlop. Off bottom weight and from a high draw the 12/1 looks value to me and just as long as she handles the All Weather surface she should run a good race.

4.10 Ripon. Another horse that I will be backing today is Mountain Pride. Again trained by John Dunlop, he seemed to be suited by a drop back in trip and front running tactics to gain a cosy victory at Sandown back in June. He's had one more run since, where he was unable to lead but finished a fair 6th in a big field Goodwood handicap and at around 12/1, again, looks good value.

4.30 Kempton. The last of the three horses I will be backing today is the Henry Cecil trained Many Volumes. He has run some very good races this season and gained a deserved Listed succes last time at Sandown. His only run on the all weather was on Great Leighs Polytrack where he went under by just a head to Mutajarred and I make him a great bet to go one better today.

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Be sure to come back tomorrow when I will have some very exciting TTS news.

Better still, visit the TTS site and sign up for all the latest news and offers by clicking below;

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/


Good Luck,
Gavin.

 

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Sunday, 24 August 2008

Where is the lone ronger?....

We better send Tonto out to look for him because if he doesn't send in any selections today he will be disqualified for missing two consecutive days.

That would be a great shame as he has made some great form selections including a big 16/1 winner.

The Nag3 Tipping Competition Leaderboard

The Lone Ronger..+18.33
pricewise987.........+16
Shorthead..............+15.75
micmac..................+15.67
bonnie fielder........+14.5
The Kernel............+6
Tess the Dog.........+5.75
Secret Squirrel.....+5
poor choice............+4.96
Cornish Geriatric..+3.58
Rays Rides............+2.16
huddy.....................+0.92

With the Lone Ronger not sending any selections and in danger of disqualification, pricewise987 unable to follow up his 25/1 winner and shorthead also drawing a blank it was left to micmac to play it safe with Duke of Marmalade and make a little bit of progress towards the top.

Bonnie Fielder who had started off so well before falling away made it back onto the leaderboard with 16/1 winner Gal Aloud and could be timing her run just right to make it to the top on the last day of competition.

25/1 is the largest priced winner so far and, with it being the last day, all those left in the competition had better start looking for a big outsider!

I'm currently at -5.09 and having stuck my pin in for two bigger priced winners I have come up with two bottom weights;

2.45 Goodwood: Perfect Flight
4.30 Goodwood: Salient


Good luck to everyone.

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Finally.....

Don't forget to check out Matt's video for the forthcoming TTS book and to sign up now for all the updates....

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/

Gavin.

 

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Saturday, 23 August 2008

Here we go again....

The big guns have stood their ground and the big race is back on. Great news as it really does look like being a cracker.....


Juddmonte International

I'm going to stick with the Duke as I tipped him in my original analysis of the race and I think the better ground should be even more in his favour.
(See Monday's post.)

Celebration Mile

The trends;

- 9 of the last 10 winners had won at the distance
- 7 of the last 10 had already won a Group race
- 4 - 6 y-o's have the best record with 7 of the last 10 winners.

With just two winning favourites in the last 10 years and the last 3-y-o winner coming in 2001 I'm going to dodge likely odds on favourite Raven's Pass.

So what does that leave us with? Dubai's Touch, who ran such a great race for me in the Goodwood Mile, doesn't look up to this grade .

The other outsider, Docofthebay, is much more interesting and I was very tempted to go with him at around 20/1. His second in the Hunt Cup where he gave Bankable 4lb and a 4 length beating is very good form. He then found the drop down to 7f and the firm ground against him at Ascot where he hung badly when making his challenge. But.... he has quite a bit to find on official ratings and with my punting confidence at an all time low I just can't bring myself to tip him. If the five runners line up I may have a little each-way speculation.

On firmer ground Third Set would have a chance to prove his Salisbury run all wrong but with the going currently Good to Soft I will instead side with Bankable who definitely deserves a change of fortune and a big Group race win.

Selection: Bankable.

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Nag3 Tipping Competition. Day 5 Leaderboard

With just two days to go it's all got a little bit interesting.

Just when it looked like The Lone Ronger was home and hosed 25/1 winner All The Good comes along and throws the cat amongst the pigeons, so to speak.

With both pricewise987 and micmac managing to pick the re-named Ebor winner (they must have read my Shergar Cup post when I made it my bet of the meeting!) they now close up and put real pressure on the Ronger.

Shorthead, not to be outdone, chose 9/1 Felday and stays towards the top.

The Leaderboard now looks like this;

The Lone Ronger.....+20.33
pricewise987............18
Shorthead................17.75
micmac.....................16
The Kernel..............7
Secret Squirrel.......5
Rays Rides..............4.16
Tess the Dog..........4
poor choice.............2.96
Cornish Geriatric...1.83
KENSFANCY.........1.39
The Pacing Roast....0.5
dannyboy5.............0.35
Itchy.......................+0.25

The rest of the field is at Level points or less.
I am at -3.09 points and bottom of the pile is Lucky! with -10 points.

Top priced winner is now shared at 25/1.

Today I will go for;

5:30 Goodwood
This 2m stayers h'cap looks all set for, the very unlucky last time out. top weight Silk Hall. He missed the break completely at Sandown but stayed on really strongly close home to be beaten 3/4 length after having looked like winning 1f out. The extra trip should suit and he looks well handicapped at the moment. Blue Citadel from Amanda Perretts yard could be biggest danger.

1:50 Beverley
Izzy Lou went into my notebook after a promising run first time out at Redcar. She looked all over the winner a furlong out in that race and I'm taking her to improve for the experience.
Of the others, the M Bell trained likely favourite Moneycantbuymelove must be the biggest threat as she finished 3rd of 16 at Newmarket on her only run.

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Finally.....

Don't forget to check out Matt's video for the forthcoming TTS book and to sign up now for all the updates....

www.TrainerTrackStats.com

Good luck,
Gavin.

 

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Friday, 22 August 2008

Now Where Did I Park My Ark?!

Friday, dear reader, and not just any old Friday. But the Friday before the traditional end of Summer jamboree, the August Bank Holiday. Oh, how we've reveled in the Mediterranean temperatures, basking (and baking) in beaches and parks around the country... Not!

Although the UK is almost certainly the greatest nation on the planet (very unbiased opinion, of course!), our weather is officially atrocious.

In fact, a recent study undertaken by the University of Haven'tgotanythingbettertodo suggested that they had discovered the first signs of British people developing webbed feet! At least, that's what I reckon should happen if there's any credence to this evolution malarkey...

[By the way, did anybody else spot the irony of the Fontwell going last night: good to FIRM!!!]

Enough of this rain-soaked banter, and on with the Friday show...

Firstly, well done to anyone who's managed to pick a winner in the tipping competition. I've singularly failed so to do and am grateful for the fact that I carry a handkerchief with me, because right now I'd poke myself in the eye if I tried to pick my nose!

Anyway, onwards and downwards, for I'm only one 50/1 gold medallist away from certain victory ;o)

To Friday's action, and there are monumental marathon cards at Newmarket and Newbury, who are the fortunate recipients of York's desperately disappointing damp squibbery.

The Berkshire track hosts a nine race whopper, while over at HQ, the starting stalls will be employed no less than E-Lev-En times. By my reckoning, that might be a new record. (I know Wolves sometimes do ten race cards, but this trumps even their all-dayers!)

And top animals galore are set to line up. Let's start at Newbury, where the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes has been re-routed. Despite the big field, I'll be very surprised if one of the front two in the market doesn't win this.

Art Connoisseur was superb when winning at Royal Ascot, and his defeat to Mastercraftsman reads well enough. However, I'm convinced that he didn't give his running off a relatively slow pace that day (time was 1.80 seconds slower than standard), and that he will be a different proposition on what must be a true test here. When he won at Royal Ascot, on the same ground as runner-up slot in the Phoenix Stakes, he ran a time 0.21 seconds FASTER than standard.

The once raced and hugely impressive Marine Boy is the only danger for me. He has immaturity to overcome, but is considered the best of a very strong Tom Dascombe 2yo squad this season. As regular readers will know, I consider Dascombe to be a man booked for the top of the training tree - he was one of my trainers to follow this season - and he's demonstrated his capabilities by using his limited financial resources to unnerve the blue chip training establishments somewhat.

There's a big handicap that's been moved to Newbury, but that's way too trappy for me, so I'll pass it over. (Sentiment leads me to hope for a big run from the now quite old Young Mick).

Over at HQ, they bully off at 12.25 in order to have a chance of beating dusk with their supercard this afternoon.

The first of the feature races, the Yorkshire Oaks (in Suffolk!), has a small but quality field. Lush Lashes is a doubtful stayer at the Oaks distance (and the distance of this race), but I reckon she'll get away with it here against just five rivals. Desperately unlucky last time out, she'll come home in front here, albeit at somewhere around the even money mark.

In the valuable St Leger Yearling Sales race, if you're thinking of backing one of Richard Hannon's five entries, consider this: in the last ten runnings, Hannon has run no fewer than 29 juveniles and not one has won.

In his defence, he's had FIVE second place finishes, so he may be due a change of luck. But the two guys to focus on are Messrs. Hills and Meehan, with five wins between them in the last decade (Meehan has won three of the last five).

Between Hannon, Meehan and Hills, they saddle ten of the nineteen marked down to run. But I think it's easier than that. I reckon that if Hannon is to erase his hoodoo here, it won't be with the very short favourite, Bonnie Charlie (good luck if you want to bet 11/10 in a race like this!).

And I think that Bryan Meehan's team is not as strong as usual. So that leaves me with Barry Hills' duo, Damien (1 from 1, could that be an omen...? Geddit?!), and Ouqba. Ouqba is the one for me, despite being ridden by the infuriating Richard Hills. He is battle hardened and has solid form, including here at Newmarket and at the trip.

In the Nunthorpe, look no further than the ridiculously precocious 3yo, Kingsgate Native. He won this race at York last year, as a TWO YEAR OLD having only his third start (!), and proved that was no fluke when winning another Group 1 this season at Royal Ascot. Ground and trip look ideal, and he looks good to add to his uber-impressive CV.

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Onto TTS, and I've put another video up about the making of the manual: this one is a bit more interesting than the last, I promise! I asked for feedback on the first vid, and only got one comment. But an old work colleage, with whom I was playing golf yesterday, replied when asked if he'd watched it, "That's seventeen minutes of my life I'm never going to get back".

Harsh, but pretty funny! Anyway, brilliant selling job done (duh!), get over to the video page and check it out:


We've just finished the manual, and it's looking the best ever by a fair distance. Both Gavin and I are delighted with it. Of course, the proof of the pudding will be in the punting...!

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Friday Fun time, and I don't know if you saw this in the week, but it's pretty funny.

Little known British bronze medal winning swimmer Steve Parry was caught up in a case of mistaken identity in Beijing this week, with the mad Chinese thinking he was eight-gold-medal-winning Michael Phelps...! (Well, they probably think we all look the same! Am I allowed to say that?! Apologies if not).

Anyway, check it out here...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/olympics/7569430.stm

Enjoy the long weekend, and come back here on Tuesday, for something that I seriously hope will be of interest to you... :o) :o) :o) :o) :o) :o) :o) :o)

Matt

 

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Thursday, 21 August 2008

Quick Update.....

Before today's early start.


Nag3 Tipping Competition Leaderboard... Day 4

The Lone Ronger......22.33
Shorthead..................9.75
Secret Squirrel..........9
poor choice................4.96
Cornish Geriatric......3.83
KENSFANCY.............3.39
The Pacing Roast......5
Rays Rides.................2.41
The Kernel.................2
willwin1....................2
TheExperiment........1.75
bonnie fielder..........1.5
Derrylin..................1.25

Is anybody going to stop The Lone Ronger? He added 10/3 winner Cyflymder to his role of honour and is now a whopping 12 1/2 points clear.

Shorthead, his nearest challenger rowed in with 2 winners but needs a few more to overhaul The Lone Ronger.

It looks like a few of you have given up as quite a number of people did not send any selections in yesterday after giving 6 consecutive losers but it will only take one nice outsider and it could all change.

I had 1 loser / 1 Non Runner and fall to -2.09.
Today I will go for;


7:00 Bath This 1m 5f h'cap looks to be between Dubai Petal and Capstan with the former getting the vote. She is reliable and consistent will like the ground and the trip will be no problem. Her h'cap mark is still pretty good racing of 1lb less than when successful at Windsor. Capstan may well improve on his 4 starts to date with this step up in trip but I don't think he has shown enough to beat the selection.

8:00 Bath Cryptonite Diamond looks set to follow up her Brighton success. It maybe a large field but the vast majority have no form or realistic chance so it does look a fight between the selection and M Channon trained pair of Jollyhockeysticks and Grit.

Good luck,

Gavin.

 

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Rain, Rain go away......

After being caught out again at Hamilton yesterday I think I should play safe and make both of todays tips at Great Leighs but I have a small fancy for one at Chester so I'll take a chance they don't cancel at the last minute.

I did manage a winner yesterday, albeit at odds on, and I now sit just off the leaderboard with -1.09 points.

Here are todays selections:-

7:10 Chester Another interesting sprint where the likely favourite, Kings College Boy, will be the top weight and has the best draw(1). He is running consistently well and has not been out of the 1st 4 in his last 7 runs, winning twice, but he has risen in the handicap because of it and now encounters soft going.

With this in mind, I pass him over in favour of last years winner Blessed Place. He has won twice this summer (!?) on the all weather and has plenty of good early speed so he should be able to take the pace and lead all the way from his 8 stall.

Of the others, Grudge will have his supporters but is still a maiden after 15 attempts. More worryingly he has been 2nd 5 times so perhaps is the one for the forecast.

3:15 Great Leighs Again a sprint handicap, featuring two horses who have already completed 4 timers this season.

Cheveton who could make it 5 in a row and Whiskey Junction who lost his winning sequence at Ayr over 5f, having won previously over 6. These victories included a 1/2L win over Cheveton and he is also 5lb better off today.

Of the others likely to head the market Hadaf has a leading chance but his stable is struggling for winners of late and I pass them all over in favour of Canadian Danehill.
He has ticks in all the boxes and has an exceptional record on the all weather winning 8 out of 30 and 2nd or 3rd on a further 10 occasions. He is 2lb lower than his last winning mark and has a good draw.

Those are the two I hope can get me into profit and onto the Leaderboard, which looks like this at the moment;

Day 3 Leaderboard

The Lone Ronger.....20
Secret Squirrel.........9
Shorthead................6.5
poor choice.............5.67
KENSFANCY............5.39
bonnie fielder..........3.5
The Pacing Roast....2.5
TheExperiment........1.5
Rays Rides................0.91
Shanngi................... -0.25
Derrylin................... -0.25

As I said yesterday, only the first email I receive will be counted towards the competition so anyone who sent in revised selections please note that these will not count.

The Lone Ronger extended his lead thanks to Henry Cecil's Portodora and a Non Runner.

A lot of winners yesterday but mostly at short prices so 16/1 still stands as the highest priced winner of the week.

Don't forget to check out the video at

www.TrainerTrackStats.com

Good luck to all,

Gavin.

 

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Wednesday, 20 August 2008

No York? Who Cares?!

You may be forgiven, dear reader, for labouring under the misapprehension that because the month is August, the season must be summer... As the wet stuff continues to tumble from top down, so one of the great flat meetings is abandoned for the second day running.

Poor old York: one of the prettiest racecourses in the country, and proudly parading its multi-million pound renovations at its blue riband meeting. Two days washed out, the likelihood that more will follow.

But me, I couldn't care less! The reason for my brazened apathy in the face of sporting postponement? It can only be one thing...

As long-standing (long suffering?) readers will know, September marks the beginning of the jumps season in my calendar. Now I know that the infinitely wise stuffed shirts have deigned that the obstacled variant of the Sport of Kings should be all year round now.

But let's face it: you don't see too many Gold Cup or Champion Hurdle contenders dragged away from their Summer holidays to lollop around Stratford of a July Sunday, do you?

No, for me the jumping action gets going in the latter part of September. And I have to concede to a personal preference for the older bigger lumps of horseflesh you get pedalling their pilots around the likes of Exeter and Sedgefield.

These are true working class heroes: the likes of Mister McGoldrick, the redoubtable 11 year old, who won no less than his FOURTEENTH race when popping up at 66/1 at the Cheltenham Festival in March.

Far more engaging than their rather pampered flat-bred brethren, in my book...

Now don't get me wrong, I do love the flat season. I just prefer the jumps and, for some reason, find it easier to back winners over hurdles and fences.

And then of course there is my statistical manual, TrainerTrackStats (TTS). I say 'my', but actually this season I've been massively helped by your usual humble scribe, Gavin.

For those of you who don't know what TTS is, where have you been hiding?! It's a little manual that I've been producing for the last few seasons, and that has done good things for its followers.

The concept is simple: identify trainers who do well with a particular subset of their string, say younger horses, or hurdlers, or - in the case of Philip Hobbs at Exeter - novice chasers.

The reason that I mention Hobbsy and Exeter specifically will become clear when you visit this page, where I've done a little video demonstrating how Gavin and I put TTS together.

I'm not sure if you'll like it or not - I'm no Stephen Spielberg! - but you might find it interesting to see what goes into researching the product, and that there is actually a bit (a lot!) more to it than your average racing system. Just click the 'play' button to get started.

The video box is quite small, but if you click the little 'x' button in the bottom right of the video area (it's near the little 'i' button), you can run it in full screen.

I'd really love to know what you think of it, good or bad (and I'm braced for the worst!), so do pop back here after and add a comment below this post!

Gavin will be back later with an update on the tipping competition, but I can tell you that I am currently none from four, and one of my selections was last seen swimming across the Knavesmire.... Bring on the jumps!


Matt

 

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Tuesday, 19 August 2008

DAY 2 LEADERBOARD.....

Apologies for yesterdays post but it was written the night before when York was still going ahead. With the clerk of the course confident that there was no problems I didn't even bother checking before posting the blog. It wasn't until I reached work that I found out!

The Nag3 Tipping competition....Day 2

It seems I wasn't the only person caught out by the late abandonment as I received quite a few competition entrants containing York selections. In fairness to all, the first email sent in is the one I accepted so even if you re-submitted new tips only the original selections will count.

All York horses will count as Non Runners i.e. No win / No loss of points.

So after all the entries have been checked and the scores worked out the Leaderboard now looks like this:-

The Lone Ronger...........+18
Secret Squirrel...............+11
Shorthead.......................+6.5
bonnie fielder.................+5.5
poor choice....................+4.83
TheExperiment.............+3.5
KENSFANCY.................+2.95
The Pacing Roast..........+2.5
Tess the Dog..................+1
Derrylin..........................+0.75
The rest of the field......-0.25 or less

We have a new leader after The Lone Ronger picked 16/1 winner Al Sabaheya in the first at Brighton. This also means he now has the highest winning nap.
Once again, nice picking Sir - well done!

At the other end, there are 23 of you who have had 4 losers out of 4 with the appropriately named Whipper In alphabetically bottom of the pile.

After my 2 non runners I stay at -2 and my two selections for tomorrow are;

7:55 Folkestone Gentle Guru is an absolute must, he ran a cracking 2nd last week when 1length 2nd to my selection that night, Judge 'n Jury. This is a much weaker contest and he should easily break his trainers seasonal duck. The one eyed Drumming Party looks to be the biggest danger- he likes a strong pace but has done most of his running at 6f having started his career at 8f. The other one to mention is Dianes Choice who ran a good 2nd last time at Bath but doesn't seem to have he level of form of the selection.

4:15 Hamilton. Possibly the hardest and most competitive race of the day with 5 C & D winners and numerous mutiple winners amongst the, unlucky for some, 13 runners. I think its worth taking a chance on a horse who has yet to win this season.
Feisty Royale the only 3 year old in the field likes to lead and dominate which is no bad thing at Hamilton when its riding soft. I can see him making all the running in the gritty and gutsy fashion of a typical M Johnston horse. There are plenty of others in with a realistic chance including likely fav. Regent's Secret, his stable mate Wind Shuffle plus last time out winners King Of The Moors and Zabeel Towers.
In my opinion, the main danger may well come elsewhere though in the form of Dechiper who has been running well over 10f but was stepped up to 16f last time. The drop back to today's trip on soft ground and on a track that takes a lot of getting home on just might suit.

York's off again today but let's keep our fingers crossed Thursday & Friday get the all clear,

Good luck,
Gavin.

 

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Monday, 18 August 2008

The Nag3 Tipping competition....Day 1

I think a lot of you now realise how hard making just 2 selections and finding a winner is with well over half the field having 2 from 2 losers and only 1 person picking 2 winners out of 2!!
Congratulations Bonnie Fielder!

There's a long way to go and with plenty of good racing over the next few days at York this will give everyone a chance to find some big priced winners.

But for now, this is how the leaderboard looks-

Secret Squirrel..........+13.5
bonnie fielder............+7.5
poor choice.................+5
The Pacing Roast......+3.5
The Lone Ronger......+3
Tess the Dog..............+3
Derrylin......................+1.75
ByaNose.....................+1.125
Bald Eagle..................+0.5
Kens Fancy................+0.5

the rest of the field is at -0.2 or less.
Bottom of the pile (purely by alphabetical listing!) is Wotnottoback.

A great start for Secret Squirrel who selected 14/1 Feifdom. This means as well as sitting atop the leaderboard he also has the largest winning nap.
Nice picking sir, well done!

I'm currently at -2 and my two selections for today are;

4:40 York - A good 10f H'cap to end day one of York Ebor meeting and I take one of M Johnstons four runners to win. Drill Sergeant who ran well last time over slightly further has performed on this going and should make a bold bid to lead all the way.

1:45 York - A particularly open sprint where a case can be made for a number of these. Trainer R Fahey has 4 runners and I take his bottom weight Green Park to be the value. Twice a winner on heavy going and 4 times at 5f winner he is running into form with a good 2nd at Beverley last time and he is 13lb lower than when running at this meeting last year.

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The Juddmonte International

Age Trends:

It pays to avoid the 3yo's in this race with only 2 winners in the past 10 years and just 4 from the past 24 years. 29 three year olds have tried in the past decade so a return of just the two winners is pretty awful.

-No horse aged 6 or upwards has ever won this race.
- 6 of the last 10 winners were 4yo's

Class Trends:

- 7 of the last 10 winners contested a Group 1 race last time out.
- 7 of the last 10 winners had already won a Group 1 race

Other trends:

- All of the last 15 winners had won a race over at least 1m2f
- 13 of the last 15 winners had already won that season
- 7 of the last 10 winners were 1st or 2nd favourites

The Derby winners appearance adds extra spice to this race but with the poor record of the 3yo's I'm inclined to give New Approach the swerve.

With the unusually wet weather meaning the going is heavy there is a good chance that we may have an upset in this race. Phoenix Tower would be the obvious danger for me but provided he starts The Duke is obviously both the trends and the form choice and with the O'Brien Group 1 juggernaut showing no signs of stopping he must be the selection.

Selection: Duke of Marmalade.

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Put to the sword.

Hopefully, a few of you out there kept the faith with Swords yesterday and got a lovely 4/1 winner as a result.
The jockey admitted his mistakes last week in a race he should have won but rode a fine race this time around to justify my original confidence in the horse.

The way he travelled round the bend and the way the front two pulled 11 lengths clear of the third makes me think;

1) Swords can win again
2) the runner up Natural Action is well worth looking out for next time
&
3) the horse that beat Swords last time out (Master at Arms) will win again.

Good luck,
Gavin.

 

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And they're off.....



Nag3 Tipping Competition.

We're off and running for the tipping competition and if you haven't sent in your selections yet you better hurry up as the deadline for today's tips is 1pm.

Best laid plans and all that......

It seems that an error in the email I sent on the 15th has affected a small minority of contestants.
Though the email was sent out correctly, for some reason the address to send the tips has been changed from mytips@nag-nag-nag.co.uk to one containing 1&1 webmail. If you have been experiencing this problem please use the highlighted email address as the other link will not work.
I will allow those contestants affected an extended deadline until 5pm but your selections will have to be made from the evening meetings.
My apologies.

The two I'm going for today are;

3:00 Lingfield This is a very trappy sprint with only a few showing any recent form.

Hot Bertie was a winner last time but that was 90 days ago. P Grayson his trainer saddles 3 of the field and while Stoneacre Chris has shown recent form he has now finished 2nd 3 times in 6 races. L Kinery who has ridden him 4 times, deserts him in favour of Hot Bertie.

Gower Belle, 3rd last time, has never run over 5F in his 10 career starts ranging from 6-8f and I'm not convinced he will have the pace on this surface over the sharp 5f.

R. Harris's horses are in good form and K. Ghunowa is very good for his 3lb claim having ridden 27 winners so far this season. Spic 'N Span looks a good reliable sort and his recent third in a claimer at Brighton is reasonable form for this level. Hopefully he should get me off to a flyer.

8:00 Windsor Another competitive sprint but I believe last weeks Sandown winner Judge 'n Jury can defy his 6lb penalty. Again ridden by K Ghunowa and trained by R. Harris he was very authoritative in his 11/2l win over Gentle Guru.

Of the remainder The Tatling seems past his best,whilst Carribean Coral and Golden Dixie are getting slower with age. Equuleus Pictor and Regal Royale both winners last time have a little to find with the level of form shown by the selection. The main danger may well come from Make My Dream who was 2nd over cd 2 weeks ago.

1) Spic 'n span
2) Judge 'n jury

Good luck to everyone who is taking part and I'll be back tomorrow with the first leaderboard of the week.

Gavin.

 

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Saturday, 16 August 2008

Let's all do the Double Dutch......

After seeing Steve Mclaren going all dutch in that video yesterday it reminded me of that great Malcolm McLaren song with the lyrics 'Lets all do the double dutch....'

So I've put my clogs on, bought the missus a bunch of tulips and pulled on my Holland football shirt.

After a couple of weeks tilting at windmills with some larger priced losing selections I've really had a bad run, in fact you could say I've been to holl-and back.
But, I feel the bad run is behind me and I'm looking forward to a couple of winners today before going out tonight to paint the town orange.

Hungerford Stakes.

Today's trends.

- The last 10 winners had all won at the distance
- All 10 were drawn between stalls 3-8
- 9 of the last 10 had won earlier in the season
- 4 and 5yo's have won 8 of the last 10 runnings of this race

Paco's Boy looks the obvious choice and may well take some beating but his likely odds of around 6/4 are short considering it's 10 years since the last 3 year old won and only 3 fav's in last 10 years have won.

He is undoubtedly a 7F specialist with a 100% record at the distance including one over C & D.

BUT, All things considered I think it's worth taking a chance on J Noseda's charge Arabian Gleam.

The 4 year old has a 6lb pull for 5 lengths on their Goodwood running which should get him a bit closer. 4 year olds have the best recent record winning 6 of the last 10 runnings and at around 8/1 it's well worth an e/w wager.

Alexandros, Frankie's choice of the 2 Godolphin horses doesn't look good enough on overall form whilst past winner Welsh Emperor is now 9 years old and seems very vulnerable to one of the younger improving runners.

It looks like a straight choice between two fancied runners, Paco's Boy and Arabian Gleam and considering the theme of the post I should recommend 'dutching' the selections but I am going to resist the urge and go with Arabian Gleam and Johnny Murtagh.

Selection: Arabian Gleam

Geoffrey Freer Stakes

Race Trends

- 8 of the last 10 had won or been placed in Group 1 or 2 company

- Only 1 winning 3yo in the last 10 years.

- 7 of the last runnings were won by 4 & 5 yo's

Not much to go on but fancied horses carrying a Group penalty usually do well in this race and I think Johnny Murtagh can make it a Group race double aboard Sixties Icon. He won nicely at Goodwood last time and as long as he handles the softer ground this former St Leger winner should be hard to beat.

Selection: Sixties Icon


Veel geluk (good luck),
Gavin

 

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Friday, 15 August 2008

Double Dutch.....

Nag3 Champion Tipster Competition.

If you registered for the tipping competition you should now have received an email outlining where / when / how to send in your daily selections.


If you haven't received the email please let me know at
competition@nag-nag-nag.co.uk


The best of luck to everybody who decides to participate.


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So far this Summer, the trends haven't been too good for me so I'm going to ditch the stats book and have a go at studying the form.

And though my recent attempts to select a big race sprint winner have been less than successful (Tombi and Bentong) I'm ready to give it another go after Wednesday night's long overdue winner.

Yes, you read that correctly, on Wednesday I actually tipped a winner!! All those of you who have entered the tipster competition must now be quaking with fear.



The 4.00 Ripon tomorrow sees 20 runners line up for the fiendishly difficult Great St Wilfrid Stakes and after sifting through the formbook I'm going for the topweight Fullanby.

The talented Lee Vickers takes a much needed 3lb off and with the highest draw (20) he looks sure to run well. He's racing off just 7lb more than when he won last years Portland h'cap and after his fine 2nd last time out he has an ideal opportunity to open his account for the season.

Of the rest, the main danger could come from Stewards Cup winner Conquest. 4 year olds have had the best recent record, winning 5 of the last 10 runnings, and with Hayley Turner doing the steering he looks set to run well.

As usual with these races D Nicholls has quite a few runners with the most fancied of his quartet being Valery Borzov. I don't think his level of form is quite good enough and he has a lot to do to reverse placings with Knot In Wood on their run at Hamilton.
With the latter being drawn in stall 1 he is also passed over.

Hogmaneigh, who likes to come from well of the pace, will find life difficult as Ripon is a track more suited to being up with the pace.

Baby Strange has to be thrown into the forecast / tricast mix. A 4 year old ,drawn high, in form plus he can lead or come from just of the pace- he has a lot going for him. He would have beaten Knot In Wood at Hamilton had the rider not dropped his whip and after an unlucky 2nd at Goodwood is a worthy favourite.

Selection: Fullandby

For the foolhardy or downright insane (that'll be just me then) here's my Forecast / Tricast combination: Fullanby / Conquest / Baby Strange.



For those of you who prefer the trends based analysis I'll be back early tomorrow with a look at a couple of other races.

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FRIDAY FUN

This clip has been widely reported in today's papers and is as funny as they say it is! Steve Maclaren putting on a fake dutch accent, this bloke 'how do you shay?', has lost the plot........



Good luck,
Gavin.

 

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Tuesday, 12 August 2008

Matt vs Gavin Round 1......

I've had an email from Matt this afternoon reminding me of the Draw Bias at Beverley along with a couple of his fancies from the shorter races on the card.

I'll pass these on to you all as you are probably fed up with the losers I keep churning out and if they do get beat I can always blame him....

2.10 Agent Stone
3.15 Bo McGinty

He also suggests a Combination Forecast and Tricast on the 3.15 Bev with numbers 6-9-10-13.

Good luck with those if you decide to play.


Then I got to thinking that I might as well have a go at a couple of races myself as a bit of a fore-runner for next weeks tipster competition.

Feel free to look away now or scroll past this section......

6.05 Sandown:
The top two in the weights would have an excellent chance if reproducing anything like their old form but being 8 and 11 years old the good old days may well be behind them and I'll pass them over along with Gentle Guru. He's drawn on the rail in 11, a C & D winner and 1 from 1 on the softer going. He would have been the selection but for the poor recent form of the Phillips yard.

It usually pays to follow a sprinter in form and Commander Wish looks a good favourite, with Ryan Moore aboard he will have his supporters but I think he can be beat on the softer ground and preference is for the improving 4 year old Judge 'n Jury.
He ran a cracking 2nd over C&D three weeks ago and then followed that with another fine run at Haydock when finishing third. He is 1 from 2 on the going, drawn 9 gives and has the ticks in all the right boxes.

8:10 Sandown:
A very trappy staying h'cap to finish the card but I'm hoping it goes the way of Amanda Perrett's Riverscape.

A consistent sort who has undoubtedly improved since her Folkestone maiden win back in April, she has welcomed the step up in trip and her recent 2nd over CD gives her a massive chance.

Silk Hall has 2 lengths to make up on the selection on their recent run over CD and I can't see any reason why he should. I make Murcar the main danger and on a line through Askar could run the selection close.

You'll probably need more than good luck if you decide to play these two selections but if there are any brave souls out there my fingers are tightly crossed for you!

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There's less than a week to go until the start of the great Nag3 Tipping Competition and a massive field has been assembled. I'm sure it's going to be great fun and very competitive but from my point of view - a logistical nightmare!

After Saturday's Ascot fiasco and Swords yesterday I'm pretty sure that I'm booked for the wooden spoon but it will be very interesting to see how you, dear readers, get on and what sort of profit can be made in a week.

The email address will close at midnight tonight and there will be no more entries accepted for the competition. It's still not too late to take part but you'll have to be quick.

Remember it's FREE and once registered you are under no obligation to participate.

To register your interest and get the full rules please email competition@nag-nag-nag.co.uk with the word TIPSTER in the subject field.

Please include your name / nickname for the leaderboard (nothing too rude please!!)

You can see more details and the Prizes in my previous posts.

Within the next few days, I will be sending out an email to everybody who has registered outlining the Email procedures with where and when to send your selections.

Good luck,

Gavin.

 

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Monday, 11 August 2008

Premature selections.....

Important tipster competition information.

A few eager readers have emailed me their selections for today but unfortunately the competition doesn't actually begin until next Monday!

I can understand a few of you may want to steal a march on your opponents and get a few early points on the board (I may have to use this ploy myself) but in fairness to all we'll only except selections for next Monday onwards.

I will send out an email at the weekend explaining the selection process with where, when and how to do it but until then we're still under starters orders!

There are a few seats remaining and I will close the email link from midnight tomorrow so if you want to take part please register now. Remember it's FREE and you are under no obligation to participate.

To register your interest and get the full rules please email competition@nag-nag-nag.co.uk with the word TIPSTER in the subject field.

Please include your name / nickname for the leaderboard (nothing too rude please!!)


You can see more details and the Prizes in my previous posts.

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You may have read in one of my previous posts about a horse called Swords.

I have been waiting for him to run again after a very impressive Southwell victory last time out and today he re-appears in the 4.30pm Wolverhampton.

Going for a hat-trick of wins he has been raised 10lb for his last win but the way he won last time out gives me every confidence that he is more than up to handling the ratings increase.

Value for at least twice the winning distance last time out he is a previous winner over course and distance and I'm very hopeful that he can be the horse to signify an upturn in my punting fortunes.

Gavin.

 

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Sunday, 10 August 2008

Sunday, Sunday...

I'm writing this post on the 7.55am Cardiff to Paddington train as I'm on my way to London to meet Matt.

This afternoon we're going to be putting the finishing touches to this coming Seasons National Hunt Trainer Track Stats and Matt's so excited I'm taking a fire extinguisher just in case he threatens to spontaneously combust again. In fact, having seen the data we have collected for myself -I'm pretty excited too!

It really is going to be the best TTS yet and we have some very exciting things lined up in the coming weeks as we get ready to launch on September 1st.

Watch this space......

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Tipster Competition

The entries to our little competition continue to flood in and I think we should have enough budding tipsters to make a competitive tournament by Tuesday.

So if you want to take part please enter before then, as I will close the email link at midnight on Tuesday.

Judging by the registration emails you are all looking forward to giving it a go and it should be a lot of fun. We've had some great nicknames (smug punter, maximus lossus, Nap king cole are just a few) which should make for an amusing Leaderboard! I'll now have to think of a prize for the funniest nickname.

Matt's going to be taking part and if anyone wants a little side action on the competition it's;

4/5 Matt vs Evs Gavin


As I have said previously, it's FREE and easy to register and you are under no obligation to take part - but you had better be quick.

To register your interest and get the full rules please email competition@nag-nag-nag.co.uk with the word TIPSTER in the message field.

Please include your name / nickname for the leaderboard (nothing too rude please!!)

More details are in the previous posts (just scroll downwards).

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Wallop!

Watching the BBC's coverage of yesterday's Shergar Cup I was witness to two of the funniest things I've seen in along time (three if you count my day's selections).......

Firstly we had Ian Bartlett looking like Lemuel Gulliver on a day trip to Lilliput as he towered above Willie Carson and Ray Cochrane in the parade ring. I think the BBC should go back to using the milk crates or 'Barty'' will be suing for back strain.

and then we had the 'great' Willie Carson describe Hayley Turner as 'a good jockey for a girl'.

The 'girl' had arguably just ridden the best race of the afternoon when getting Gee Dee Nen up to beat Bogside Theatre and her reward is having the sexist Carson telling her she's not bad at riding horses considering her sex!

I was having a good old laugh to myself until the missus walloped me around the ear with the Racing Post and, let me tell you, with Saturdays sports pullout it's a heavy newspaper!- bloody Willie Carson.

Hayley Turner is a very good jockey, fullstop!!

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Remember with our tipping competition - you gotta be in it to win it,
Gavin.

 

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Friday, 8 August 2008

Saturday Round-up

Nag3 Champion Tipster

Well, it seems that quite a lot of you are up for the challenge and the entries to our Tipping Competition have been flooding in.

If it carries on at this rate I may have to cap the number of entries so if you want to be sure of a place in the starting line-up please register now.

It's FREE and easy to register and you are under no obligation to take part.

To register your interest and get the full rules please email competition@nag-nag-nag.co.uk with the word TIPSTER in the message field.
Please include your name / nickname for the leaderboard (nothing too rude please!!)

More details are in the previous post (just scroll downwards).

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ASCOT TEAM RACING?!

As the racing powers-that-be are still trying to convince everybody that horse racing can be a team event we have to endure another Shergar Cup day as the main racing event of the week.
Thank goodness for the Olympics.

But seeing as I need some practice before the Tipping Competition here are my selections for the Shergar Cup Races;

1.10 Dash: Dark Missile is very well handicapped loves Ascot and this drop in class should give her a shout.

1.45 Distaff: Froissee needs a bit of rain but should get it. Still on an attractive handicap mark after her Newmarket win she will hopefully go well under Richard Hughes.

2.20 Sprint: Spanish Bounty has been running well this season and got his rewards last time out in a very competitive big field handicap at Newmarket. A reproduction of that run will see him in the shake up.

2.55 Stayers: Enjoy the Moment hinted at a return to form last time out and usually runs well at Ascot. The handicapper won't release his grip on him but I still fancy him to give Richard Hughes another win.

3.30 Challenge: All the Good looks the best bet on the card and this drop in class should see the Goldophin top weight into the winners enclosure. He won a nice handicap over C&D at the end of last year and his seasonal debut was a highly promising 4th in a tough Ascot handicap. Any rain will boost his chances further.

4.05 Mile: Gold Sovereign was withdrawn from the Goodwood Mile (probably because of his poor draw) but can gain compensation here. Richard Hughes (again!) rides for Goldophin and this lightly raced 4-y-o can supplement his recent Redcar win with another handicap victory before moving onto bigger targets. Fishforcompliments ran a cracker at Goodwood considering his poor draw and may be each way value today.

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FOOTBALL SEASON '08-'09. PART 1

The football season is upon us again and I'll give you my fancies for the season over the next couple of days.......



I always like to have a pre-season (un)Lucky 15 on the Four Divisions and this year will be no exception.

Last year I had Man Utd, Ipswich, Swansea and Peterborough so not too bad but hopefully it's going to be better this Season.

The fab four this year are going to be;

Premier League: Man Utd. - Same team as last year, same result!
Championship: Birmingham - Like a rubber ball they'll go bouncing back
League 1: Peterborough - My team - Up the Posh!
League 2: Shrewsbury - Matt tells me they're a great bet.

If you want to give your predictions for the season leave them in the comments (at the end of the post) and we'll see next year who's got the best crystal ball.

Up Pompey!!

Harry Redknapp has done wonders at Portsmouth and his little and large strike force of Defoe and Crouch could score a lot of goals this season.

They have a classy midfield ( Diop, Diarra) and with James, Distin and Campbell making a solid defensive foundation this should all ensure Portsmouth will be a tough team to beat.

There's no chance of them breaking into the BIG 4 monopoly but they should gain enough points to make themselves competitive on the handicap and even challenge for the spot the rest of the Premier League are playing for, 5th place.

With a +30 point start on the Handicap they look good value and a total points haul of around 60 should see them finish in the top 4.

Skybets 16/1 each way with 1/4 odds the first 4 looks like a great bet.

At 8/1 without the top 4, and Corals betting 1/4 odds the top 3 they also look tempting and if Harry's team avoid too many injuries they can be the best of the rest.

Premier League Handicap: Portsmouth
Premier League without Big 4: Portsmouth

More tomorrow.....


Gavin.

 

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Thursday, 7 August 2008

Champion Tipster...

No, not me obviously........

With my punting confidence at an all time low and the big race winners hard to find the vultures are beginning to circle.

I am well aware that a lot of my selections have performed less than admirably but this is a FREE blog and the race analysis are just my personal thoughts. Whether you decide to back them or not is entirely your decision.

I'll keep posting my selections and leave it up to you whether you want to back them (or lay them!).

But I guess the best way to see how much better you, our readers, are at picking the winners is to run a tipping competition. So who's up for the challenge?

FREE to enter and with some really great prizes the competition will run from Monday August 18th - Sunday 24th August

All you'll have to do is simply select two horses a day by 1pm, we'll place a theoretical 1pt stake at the starting price on each selection and the reader who can make the biggest profit on the week will be crowned Nag3 Champion Tipster.

We'll even give you a shiny trophy to show off to your mates!

I will update and post the Top 10 leaderboard every day throughout the competition.

To register your interest and get the full rules please email competition@nag-nag-nag.co.uk with the word TIPSTER in the message field.
Please include your name / nickname for the leaderboard (nothing too rude please!!)




PRIZES:

Ist Prize:

An email subscription to Trainer Track Stats for the entire 08-09 NH Season
PLUS
A copy of the Selector2 that I trialled last month

AND THE TROPHY!! (Prize worth over £250)

2nd Prize:

A free copy of the 2008/09 NH Season TTS E-Book

3rd - 5th Prize:

A months email subscription to TTS for the 08/09 NH season.

PLUS every reader who finishes in front of me (which will probably be everyone!) in the final table will receive £20 off the 08/09 TTS.

PLUS the person who gets the biggest priced winner of the week will receive Betting Vouchers to the value of the odds i.e a 50/1 winner will win £50 in vouchers.

(No cash alternative available)

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FRIDAY FUN

Let's get the Olympic party started with a few clips of some of the athletes who won't be competing in Bejing..........



Let the challenge begin,
Gavin.

 

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Monday, 4 August 2008

Yo / No Selector??

The Selector2 System Review.

The trial is over and while the Selector2 didn't exactly go out in a blaze of glory it did manage to go out with a much needed 2/1 winner.
This enabled the trial to end with a profitable day and only a very small level stakes loss for the fortnight.

Firstly the stats;

The selector2 picked 90 selections over 13 days from which it had 22 winners (8 non runners). Just under a 27% strike rate.

The biggest priced winner being 6/1 and the shortest 2/9.

It's best day's trading saw a profit of +8 points (twice) and it's worst day gave a loss of -7 points.

Overall, it lost -1.87 points at starting price to a level stakes of 1 point.

A FEW THOUGHTS.......

As I have said throughout my review the software itself is pretty basic and the selection process quite simple.
It definitely takes longer than 2 minutes to retrieve the selections but it is all automated and the days picks are laid out clearly for you.

Once you have seen the selection process you may feel that the software application is not entirely necessary and perhaps it would have been better to create an 'air of mystery' and just list the days horses without showing the selection method.

I've also had a few issues with the spelling and the lack of an Instruction Manual but the vendor James has assured me these problems are being addressed.

As for the results themselves, I don't think the small -1.87 level stakes loss is anywhere near a disaster and it was showing a healthy profit for a long time.

It's a real shame that after such a promising start the Selector hit a bad patch just as the trial was coming to an end.
Every system has it's losing runs and evidently this one is no different but it also has shown that it can pick winners too, and decent priced winners at that.

Obviously, all you Betfair savvy punters would be helping yourself to the enhanced odds on offer and you could probably argue that the Selector actually showed a profit using Betfair SP.

CONCLUSION

Either way it certainly didn't make or lose anyone a fortune and I think this is where this system lies....in the middle.

It certainly isn't a bad system but I don't think it's a great one either. Obviously a two week snap-shot isn't going to tell the whole story but from what I've seen it only takes a couple of bad days to wipe out some hard earned profits.

For those of you who like backing plenty of horses a day and having winners on a regular basis then you'll find the Selector2 delivers on both counts. It has shown itself more than capable of having it's good days with plenty of decent priced winners and if that's what you are searching for, then you could do a lot worse than The Selector2.

But our search for that infallible, Holy Grail of systems continues............

You can see the sales pitch and read all about The Selector2 by clicking below;

The Selector 2

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I'll be back over the next couple of days with a look at the Olympics and the new footie season.

Gavin.

 

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Sunday, 3 August 2008

No Selector

Aaaarrrrrrrgggggghhhhh!

The Selector2 System Trial. Day 13

Oh dear, it's all gone horribly wrong. Another blank day with 7 losers and 1 non runner just about ensures the Selector 2 will end the fortnight trial with a dark cloud hanging over it.

The -7 points now puts us -2.87 points down for the two weeks and though it's not a terrible figure it was looking a lot better a couple of days a go.

With just 2 '3 element' selections chosen for today it's going to need something special to redeem itself.

Let's hope it can go out in a blaze of glory.

You can see the sales pitch and read all about The Selector2 by clicking below;

The Selector 2

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Yesterday we also got conclusive proof, if it were needed, that;

A) Aidan O'Brien is a training genius who can win a Group 1 race without having the best horse in the field.

B) Johnny Murtagh has a tactical brain to match his riding talents.

and

C) Richard Quinn is my punting Nemesis. The first time I have backed him this season and the pint-size plonker can't even get the horse to come out of the stalls!! Needless to say, you will never see me tip a horse he is riding ever again.

A bad day at the office all round.

I'll be back tomorrow with my verdict on the Selector 2,

Gavin.

 

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Saturday, 2 August 2008

Woe Selector

The Selector2 System Trial. Day 12

Wipeout! Oh dear, it felt like it was coming and, unfortunately, yesterday it happened.
We saw the first blank day for the Selector with 6 losing selections and 1 non runner leaving us minus 6 points for the day.

This has seen most of the profits wiped out for the fortnight and we are now up by just 4.13 points.

With only the weekend to go before the end of the trial it's going to be touch and go as to whether it can maintain a positive balance sheet.

Today we have two strong bets and six '3 element' selections to go to war with and a good show is desperately needed.

You can see the sales pitch and read all about The Selector2 by clicking below;

The Selector 2

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GLORIOUS GOODWOOD.

If there was ever a race needed to prove what effect the draw can have on the outcome of a race, then yesterday's Totesport Mile has to be it.
As in recent years, and highlighted in yesterdays post, the race was dominated by high drawn horses, in fact the first four home all came from the top 4 stalls!

Unless the course can find some way to alleviate the bias there could be problems ahead for this historic contest. I can't see too many trainers with low drawn, fancied horses bothering to turn up if it carries on like this.

Stewards Cup

The bias on straight course, used for the Stewards Cup, definitely isn't anywhere near the same as the round Mile but with the field likely to split into two it could still play a major part in deciding the outcome of this race.

Draw Trends;

- 7 of the last 10 winners came from stall 19 or higher

In the last decade only 6 horses drawn from 9 to 18 have managed to make the frame so a middle draw is a definite handicap.

Other trends;

- 4 and 5-y-o's have won 9 of the last 10 runnings
- 9 of the last 10 had finished 1st or 2nd on either of their last 2 starts.
- 8 of the last 11 had finished in the top three last time out
- 9 of the last 13 winners had run in the Wokingham the same season

So what does that leave us with?
The two horses that seem to fit most of the trends are the D. Nicholls trained Buachaill Dona and the Paul Cole trained Bentong.

Dandy Nicholls has an excellent record in this race and his sprint runners demand the greatest of respect but I feel Buachaill Dona may need 5f with a bit of cut in the ground.

Of the Nicholls horses I much prefer the chances of Northern Fling who ran 8th in the Wokingham and then ran a staying on 9th over 5f at Ascot last Sunday. He's also well drawn in stall 23 and with Andrew Mullen taking 3lb off he could be in the shake-up at a nice price.

Betong ran a great race to finish 6th in the Wokingham and has since run well in a very competitive conditions race at Haydock where he finished a creditable 3rd. He has a nice draw and were it not for the fact that Richard Quinn is riding him I would be quite confident of a good run.

Off The Record has been running in much higher class than this and ran a great race two starts back in a Group 3 race at Sandown. He won a big field handicap at Newmarket under Richard Hughes back in the Spring, off an official rating just 3lb less than today.
So, off a very competitive handicap mark, from a high draw and with Hughes back on board he should go well.

At 28/1 though, I'm going to take my chances with Betong and hope Quinn doesn't mess up!

Each Way Selection: Bentong.
Dangers: Off the Record & Northern Fling.

That should be a nice tricast!

Nassau Stakes

- Last 10 winners had all won a Group 1 or Group 2 race
- All of the last 10 winners had won within their last two starts
- All of the last 10 winners were from the first three in the betting
- 3-y-o's have won 7 of the last 10 runnings
- 7 of the last 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out with the three exceptions running unplaced in a Group 1 race.

With 3-y-o's holding sway (they won for 11 consecutive years from 1993-2003) and a top class horse at the front of the betting market needed, I think we need look no further than Lush Lashes. Two previous Musidora winners have doubled up in the past decade and this Oaks also ran looks to have a golden Group 1 opportunity.

The obvious danger is the Aidan O'Brien / Johhny Murtagh representative Halfway to Heaven!
Please Aidan, let someone else win a Group 1 race....

Selection: Lush Lashes

Good luck,
Gavin.

 

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Friday, 1 August 2008

Oh Selector

The Selector2 System Trial. Day 11

Phew. We had to sweat yesterday after a few very well fancied selections got turned over in the afternoon but our perseverance paid off with a 3/1 winner last night.

With 2 winners and 2 non runners from the 9 selections it certainly wasn't the Selector's finest day but it did recover enough to only lose 1.78 points.

We now have a running total of +10.13 pts since our trial began and I'm hoping for an easier, less stressful day with the seven '3 element' selections.
There are no 'strong fancy' selections today.

You can see the sales pitch and read all about The Selector2 by clicking below;

The Selector 2

We are nearing the end of the Selector2 trial and I will be finishing my review after Sunday's racing. I will then post my conclusion and offer my thoughts about the product in Monday's post.

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Friday Fun

Following on from last weeks fun Intelligence test here's another brain cell workout.
Remember, it's only a bit of fun and shouldn't be taken too literally and be careful as you scroll down so as not to reveal the answer too soon!

1. How do you put a giraffe into a refrigerator?
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The correct answer is: Open the refrigerator, put in the giraffe, and close the door.
This question tests whether you tend to do simple things in an overly complicated way.

2. How do you put an elephant into a refrigerator?-
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Did you say, "Open the refrigerator, put in the elephant, and close the refrigerator?" (Wrong Answer)
Correct Answer: Open the refrigerator, take out the giraffe, put in the elephant and close the door.

This tests your ability to think through the repercussions of your previous actions.

3. The King of the Forest is hosting an animal conference. All the animals attend except one. Which animal does not attend?
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Correct Answer: The Elephant. The elephant is in the refrigerator. You just put him in there. This tests your memory.

OK, even if you did not answer the first three questions correctly, you still have one more chance to show your true abilities.

4. There is a river you must cross but it is inhabited by crocodiles.
How do you manage it?
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Correct Answer: You swim across. All the crocodiles are attending the animal conference.
This tests whether you learn quickly from your mistakes.

Well done if you got all 4 right and good luck for the weekend,
Gavin.

 

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