Oi Oi Royston!

GLORIOUS GOODWOOD.

Totesport Mile

As I said at the end of my post yesterday I have a big fancy for this race and I was hoping for a good draw.
Well, it seems that all the finger crossing has paid off and the Gods are smiling down on me because my horse drew stall 18 and as you will see later in the post a high draw is very important for this race.

I know my recent selections have been beaten more than Max Mosley in a London basement but I really, really, REALLY fancy this one.

In fact, I haven't fancied a horse this much since Tombi ran in the Wokingham!
Okay, probably not the best advert for the horse's chances but........

Dubai's Touch has been on my shortlist for this race ever since I backed it at Sandown at the start of July.

He ran an absolute cracker but ultimately finished just out of the frame behind his stablemate Lovelace. The way he stuck on that day after being headed convinced me he was back to form and ready to win a big handicap.

He won a Listed race at this meeting last year and has some very good form to his name. 4lb lower in the handicap than his run in the Hunt Cup,where he couldn't get competitive, he's ready to strike and I make him the bet of the meeting.

His trainer Mark Johnston is in top form and loves to win the big handicaps at Goodwood. He won this race with a very similar sort, Riberac, in 2001.

Forget Dubai's Touch's run last time out in a silly little 4 runner conditions race as he was hampered leaving the stalls and was always playing catch-up with the eventual winner.
I'm sure Johnston's eye has always been on this prize and that was his prep run.

If I haven't persuaded you yet then here are the trends;

- 9 of the last 11 winners came from stall 16 or higher

- Only one winner (1998) in the last 10 years came from a single figure stall

- All of the last 10 winners had raced within the last 28 days

- All of the last 10 winners led all the way or raced prominently.
It is very hard to win this race from the back of the field.

- No 3-y-o has won this race since 1997

- 4 and 5-y-o's have won 9 of the last 10 runnings

- 7 of the last 10 winners were placed in the top 3 last time out.

Also, Aidan O'Brien hasn't got a runner and Johhny Murtagh is without a ride so there's no chance of them ruining this particular race for me.

Please Royston- pop him out of the stalls smartish, grab the rail, whizz around the bend and scoot on home remembering to save a little for when the pack start to chase you down. Easy Peasy!

If he does happen to get beat and the missus finds the holiday fund missing then I'm going to be in more trouble than Fergal Lynch after a Panorama expose, so come on Ffrenchy get the job done.

Selection: Dubai's Touch

Gavin

Solo Selector

The Selector2 System Trial. Day 10

Just the one winner again yesterday for the Selector2 but at the very rewarding odds of 6/1.

Yet another profitable day with a win of 2 points. This makes us +11.91 points to level stakes since the trial began.

So far it has thrown up 64 selections giving 19 winners and 4 non runners. A win ratio of just under 32%. A near 1 in 3 strike rate has got to be good in anyone's book.

You can see the sales pitch and read all about The Selector2 by clicking below;

The Selector 2

The vendor has once again asked me to mention that the introductory price will be withdrawn at midnight tonight (as stated in the sales page).

However, the systems owner, James, has kindly agreed a 25% reduction off the new price for all our blog readers.

So a big thank you to James for this kind concession.

There is one 'strong fancy' selections and eight '3 element' picks today.

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GLORIOUS GOODWOOD.

Goodwood Cup

Trends for this race.

- Unsurprisingly, 9 of the last 10 winners ran in the Ascot Gold Cup
- 9 of the last 10 winners were at least Group race placed over at least 1m 7f
- 7 of these 10 had won a Group race already

With the Ascot Gold Cup being the key to this and Yeats having demolished the field in that race it looks like another Group race win for this mighty stayer.
He carried the Group 1 penalty when scoring in the 2006 running and obviously handles the track, not a very original selection but he does look the likeliest winner.

Selection: Yeats

5f King George Stakes

- No horse older than 6 has scored in the last 10 years
- 9 of the last 10 had won over the distance
- 6 winners ran in the Ascot Kings Stand Stakes

Not much to go on but with 9 of the last 10 winners either being drawn in the top 4 or bottom 4 stalls I think we can discount those drawn in the middle.

Dandy man finished best of those that contested the Kings Stand and he 'won' the race on the far side that day. This is a lot easier than that race and he should take all the beating.

Selection: Dandy Man

Some old couples Anniversary Handicap (4.05)

I should have stuck with my original selection in the handicap yesterday as at least it was a non runner though you could argue that my selection My Aunt Fanny was a non runner too!

This looks just as tricky as yesterdays race and with some strong trends again I'm hoping things work out this time.

- All of the last 10 winners had a top 3 finish over 1m 2f
- 9 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 4 last time out
- 9 of the 10 had an official handicap rating between 91 - 101
- 8 of the 10 carried less than 8st 13lb
- 8 of the 10 finished 1st or 2nd in at least one of their last two runs

If Love Galore takes his chance then he will be very hard to beat provided yesterdays run hasn't taken too much out of him. Mark Johnston's horses are usually very tough and it wouldn't be the first time the trainer has run and won with a horse twice at this meeting.

But, it is another Johnston horse that seems to fit the profile of previous winners and as the trainer has saddled three previous winners of this race I am going with Hunting Country to make it win number 4.

Of the others, Indian Days who has ticks for most of the trends and ran a fine second to Collection back in May may give the selection most to do.

Selection: Hunting Country
Danger: Indian Days

Gavin.

HoHoHo Selector

The Selector2 System Trial. Day 9


It looks like the selector2 may have the last laugh.
It may be pretty basic and the software a little rough around the edges but what you can't deny is- that it does pick winners!

Yesterday we had a nice 5/1 winner, a 10/11 'strong fancy' winner and a Non-Runner all from just 5 selections.
With a win of 3.91 points for the day this gives us a rolling total of +9.91 points to level stakes. Very nice.

You can see the sales pitch and read all about The Selector2 by clicking below;

The Selector 2

There are no 'strong fancy' selections today but there are five '3 element' picks.

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Onto GLORIOUS GOODWOOD.

Sussex Stakes.

Trends for this race.

- Aidan O'Brien has won this race twice in the past decade with a couple of his 3-y-o Superstars
- Aidan O'Brien has won 15 Group 1 races already this season.
- Aidan O'Brien has bucked many trends, in lots of Group 1 races.
- Aidan O'Brien is a training genius.

There's no point in trying to get this favourite beaten, it looks like Group 1 number 16 for Aidan O'Brien.
If Henry runs anywhere near to his form the race is his but at the odds it's a no-bet for me - I just hope he wins and wins well so racing can welcome it's newest superstar.

Selection: Henrythenavigator

Vintage Stakes

- Aidan O'Brien has had 8 beaten horses in this race and no winners
- 10 of the last winners had raced no more than 3 times
- 9 of the last 10 had won last time out

With just these 3 trends we are left with only 2 horses Ryehill Dreamer and Soul City.

BUT....As I have said many times before, Aidan O'Brien has re-written the trends book this season and his runners will obviously be well fancied.

Also, Orizaba was my 2-y-o banker of the Royal Ascot meeting but didn't show his true running for whatever reason. If he can bounce back to the sort of form that saw him win his maiden by 9 lengths he could be a real danger to all.

However, I'm going to side with Richard Hannons Soul City. He hasn't as yet shown the class the rest of the field have and he is the only runner lining up not to have contested a Group race but with Hannon & Moore in such great form the big odds are quite appealing.

Each Way Selection: Soul City
Danger: Orizaba

Sir Peter O'Sullevan Handicap (4.05)

This is a very competitive handicap with some in form runners from all the top stables but there are some strong trends which should help us narrow the field down.

- All 6 penalised horses have been beaten
- All 10 winners in the last decade were officially rated between 85 and 97
- 9 of the 10 carried between 8st 6lb - 9st 3lb
- 9 of the last 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd on either or both of their last two starts
- 8 of the last 10 had won earlier in the season
- 8 of the last 10 had already contested a handicap

Interestingly, Mark Johnston has run 3 horses in this race who had won the previous weekend ..... All were beaten.

A shortlist of four - Goodwood Starlight, Swinging Sixties, Allied Powers and My Aunt Fanny.

3 of the 4 are stepping up from 1m 2f for this race so I was going to give Allied Powers another chance after his defeat at Haydock last time as he is proven over the distance. It was a very strange race with few runners getting into it and at 20/1 he looks a great price. I decided against it as I can't help thinking the handicapper now has him and Goodwood may not suit his style of racing. It wouldn't be the greatest surprise if he popped up though.

Goodwood Starlight obviously acts around Goodwood as he has two course wins to his name and John Dunlop likes nothing more than a winner at his local track. He should appreciate the step up in trip and a big run is expected but I am going to go with My Aunt Fanny (stop sniggering!)

This improving filly is in great form and the way she was going on at the finish last time out suggests this step up to 1m 4f is well worth a go. A good 3rd in a maiden around the course back in May shows she can handle the track, the ground is fine and at 14/1 she looks great value.

Each Way selection: My Aunt Fanny
Danger: Goodwood Starlight

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hatchet job?

The BBC's flagship current affairs programme Panorama (9pm BBC1) takes another look at race-fixing allegations tonight and it may be worth checking out to see what Paul Kenyon has uncovered.

I will reserve judgement until I've seen it but with the program title ' Racing's Dirty Secrets' I think we can assume that it's not going to be good news for horse-racing!

-------------------------------

And finally....I have a really big fancy for the Totesport Mile on Friday and I am now off to pray for a good draw! The race has continually favoured highly drawn horses and if he gets a plum stall we could be in for a good day.

I'll let you know tomorrow,
Gavin.

K.O. Selector?

The Selector2 System Trial. Day 8

After a disappointing weekend I asked the question 'will the selector2 bounce back'? and while it didn't deliver a knockout punch it certainly picked itself off the canvas and came out fighting.

It gave one 7/2 winner from the four selections and a small win of half a point for the day. It is a profit though and it does mean we are still nicely in front on the week with a level stakes balance of +6 points.

You can see the sales pitch and read all about The Selector2 by clicking below;

The Selector 2

Today there are two 'strong fancy' and three '3 element' selections.
Can the Selector2 continue its comeback? We'll find out tomorrow.


Swords was the winning selection and he won the 3.45 by 6 lengths. You may think 'nice performance' but so what?

Well, If you weren't able to watch At The Races yesterday you would have missed the horse suffering a bad run 4f out and again 3f out where it was nearly brought down.
Swords recovered and was switched from the inside to make a challenge right around the outside of the whole field. It kept up a sustained run to pass the leaders and storm home by 6 lengths.

With a clear, untroubled passage it would have been 20 lengths plus and surely he must win again next time out.

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GLORIOUS GOODWOOD.

I'm sorry for the late inclusion of today's Goodwood Races and will endeavour to get tomorrows races up on the blog later this evening.

Here are the trends for the three Group Races this afternoon;

Gordon Stakes (Group 3)

In 1998 there was a dead-heat so there has been 11 winners in the last 10 years!
- 9 of the last 11 winners had already won over at least 1m 2f that season
- 9 of the last 11 winners had won or were placed last time out.
- The two exceptions were unplaced in a Derby
- Only 2 favourites have won in the last 10 years

Michael Stoute, who has won the race twice in the past decade, looks like he has another improving 3-y-o in Conduit and he is taken to come out best in what looks a poor renewal of this race.

Selection: Conduit

Betfair Cup

First run in 2000 so we only have 8 years of trends

- 7 of the 8 winners had already won over the distance
- 6 of the 8 were Group or Listed race winners
- 6 of the 8 had run at Royal Ascot

A cracking race and one that Saeed Bin Suroor has a good record in (2 wins & 1 place from 4 runners) . No filly has ever won this race and this must count against Infallible who is also the likely favourite (just 1 winning favourite in 8 years).

The Jersey stakes is a good guide to this race and I will side with Il Warrd who was a fine second in that race. The 6/1 looks a great price and he looks to me a banker for the frame.

Selection: Il Warrd

Group 3 Molecomb Stakes

- 8 of the last 10 were placed last time out
-The two exceptions were unplaced in the Newbury Super Sprint
- 10 of the last 10 winners had lost their maiden tag
- 10 of the last 10 had finished 1st or 2nd in at least 50% of all their starts

Interestingly, fillies have won 6 of the last 10 renewals.

Willie Haggas has had 2 winners from 2 runners in this race and his filly Jargelle took the Super Sprint in fine style. At around 11/1 this looks a cracking Each Way bet and will be carrying my cash this afternoon (but don't let that put you off!)

Each Way Selection: Jargelle

Hopefully I will be back later with tomorrows Goodwood preview,
Gavin.

Uh Oh Selector.....

The Selector2 System Trial. Day 7

Not a very good weekend for the Selector2 system with Sunday producing a loss for the second day in a row. It managed to find just the solitary winner yesterday at odds of 11/10.

This gave us a loss of 2.90 points for the day but it does mean we are still in front on the week with a level stakes profit of +5.5 points.

You can see the sales pitch and read all about The Selector2 by clicking below;

The Selector 2

Today there is one 'strong fancy' and three '3 element' selections.
Will the selector2 bounce back? Come back tomorrow to find out.

------------------------------

I am pleased to inform you all that Matt managed to calm himself down and didn't spontaneously combust! Which was particularly good news for me as I'm not sure I'd have been able to explain to the missus why her brand new sofa was now a pile of ashes.

But, I can now see why he is so excited about the new TTS book and I can also appreciate just how much work goes into producing it.
We will both be spending the coming weeks burning the midnight oil, sitting hunched up in front of our laptops, number crunching our way through a mountain of data to bring you the very best TTS yet.

Watch this space.........

Gavin.

YoYo Selector... by Matt

Good morning, dear reader, from an old friend. Yes, it's Matt here. I'm currently enjoying the glorious sunshine ahead of Glorious Goodwood down in South Wales with our mutual friend, Gavin, and his folks.

So, having a few rare free moments, and Gavin having promised a few words from yours truly, I'm more than happy to oblige.

-----------------------------

Selector2 Update, Day Six

The Selector system continues to trundle along in the background and has come up with five picks today. There is one 'strong bet' and four '3 element' choices.

Yesterday's quartet included a winner at 8/13 and three losers, meaning the cumulative tally - a little up and down, hence the yoyo (geddit?!) - now stands at +8.40 for a single unit level stake at SP. Obviously, if you're using betfair - which I know you would do - you can ladle on a spoonful more gravy to that figure.

Having had my first look at the software this morning, I can tell you it's very straightforward to operate and, while it takes a few minutes to deliver the selections, there's nothing for you to do except make a cup of tea, or put the cat / rubbish / milk bottles / spouse out.

That said, in my opinion, it could do with a quick start guide for first time users, to tell them categorically which buttons to press. There aren't that many to choose from, but it wasn't clear (to me at least) which was the right one. [Luckily Gavin was on hand to lead the way.]

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Sunday Service

I fancied a couple of horses on Friday from good draws and meant to text Gavin so he could share them with you. As is the way with these things, I didn't get time to do it and they both won: Miss Daawe at 3/1 and Stan's Cool Cat at 7/4. It will be scant consolation to learn that I backed them both. (Sorry!)

But fear not. For though those horses may have bolted, there's still time for me to belatedly close the stable door... by way of a few picks today.

There's not much to go on by way of draw biases, but the one surprising (perhaps) exception to this is in the 1m4f handicap at Ascot (2.15).

One of my free systems (on the 'Free Systems' tab from the top of the blog page - have you ever been there?!), looks at Ascot round the turn.

It says that, between 1997 and 2006, 2 to 6 year old boys drawn in the top fifth of the stalls and from the first four in the betting, made a profit of 82 points on 245 bets. Step forward Ladies Best, who from the uber-shrewd Luca Cumani yard, will be all guns blazing today. At around 8/1, he looks a decent enough each way play in what is obviously a wide open affair.

Somewhat more speculatively in the 2.50, I'm going to have a small each way interest in a horse that I've followed since his juvenile days. Silvester Kirk's tough gelding Elhamri has failed to rediscover his blisteringly precocious 2yo form, but has nonetheless run with credit this season. He looks the type to relish a fierce end to end gallop, which is surely the order of this contest. At around 50's, he might give us a monster run for our money. (And he might not, which is clearly the way with wacky wayout wagers!)

A trio of TrainerFlatStats picks also pop to post today, two at Ascot and one at Carlisle.

Ascot 1.40 Rayhani
Ascot 2.15 Sohraab
Carlisle 4.50 Tartan Gigha

The last named is fairly well odds on, so might not pay for the Sunday roasts, but the others look to have sporting chances.

-----------------------------

Get Ready For The Biggest and Best TrainerTrackStats Ever!

The reason for my quick excursion to Wales, apart from catching up with Clan Priestley-Bell, was to get cracking on the research for TTS 2008/9. Having made a collective profit of over 160 points (that's £3,200 for £20 stakes) over the last two jumps seasons (60 points in 2006/7, and 100 points in 2007/8), I'm excited to the point of soiling my undergarments at the impending season's action!

Regulars will know all the fun kicks off on 1st September, but Gavin and I will be whetting your appetite throughout August with a series of features on 'the making of TTS' and items of that nature. Not only that, but we're also going to have some pretty special freebies to share with you. And... if you're really lucky (ahem!), you might even get me and Gavin in conversation on a little video!

Honestly, though, I'm not sure you're ready for the 'talking heads' (even if you've been with Nag from the start!!)

So watch this space for some exciting stuff and nonsense on the jumping action front.

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Glorious Goodwood Heads Up

It may seem somewhat perverse to be mentioning the National Hunt season even before Glorious Goodwood, but such is the overlapping nature of the two hemispheres of the Sport of Kings.

I love Goodwood, and will be there on Friday getting somewhat lubricated in the bubbles tent. For those of you who like to bet (helloooo!!!) then Gavin will be bringing you more of the usual statsfests throughout the week. He's been pretty unlucky thus far, with some decent priced fancies peppering the podium, and I reckon this week may well be the week when the gravy train arrives at Payout Central.

--------------------------
And Finally, Rapid City Exit Stage Left...

As you probably know, Rapid City has degenerated into a fairly moderate animal despite his lofty handicap rating. As a result of this, the other syndicate members feel (perhaps rightly) that he needs a change of scenery. So step forward Mr D Wintle, for it is you who will be tasked with reigniting the Rapid fires. Good luck to you, sir!

For my part, I've reluctantly conceded defeat and have transferred my share to another Feilden inmate, Night Orbit. He's not a bad stick, capable of winning in the right grade (as he did at Newbury in an amateur chap's race earlier this season). We'll have some fun with him between now and the end of the season, and I'll be sure to advise Gavin when he's off (in case you feel the need to donate to that most ignoble of causes, the Bookies' Benevolent Fund).

That's all from me... Happy Sunday, and look out for some truly exciting news on the TTS front soon. I'm off for a cold shower before I spontaneously combust!

Pip pip!

Matt

Yo Selector

The Selector2 System Trial. Day 5

More Big winners to report dear readers,

After Thursday's loss the Selector2 bounced back in fine style yesterday with a couple of good priced winners.

The 'Strong Fancy' was a non runner and of the six '3 Element' selections we had two winners at 11/2 twice and a Non Runner.

This gives us a level stakes profit on the day +8 points and a running total of +10.78 points.

From just 4 days trading this is a very encouraging profit and I think any system would be proud of those sort of figures. We can only hope that this good run continues.

You can see the sales pitch and read all about The Selector2 by clicking below;

The Selector 2

I've had an email from the author of the system (who is obviously taking a keen interest in my review) and he has assured me that the programmer will be correcting the spelling mistakes (hooray, I can sleep soundly now) and a few other minor things will also be sorted.

He has also asked me to point out that the $100 discount offer on the product will finish on the 31st July as stated in the sales page.

Today there is one 'strong fancy' and three '3 element' selections.

So be sure to check out Nag3 tomorrow as I continue my appraisal and see if the Selector2 can continue this impressive run.

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Totesport International Handicap

The trends.

Age: The 4 and 5-y-o's hold sway here winning 8 of the last 10 runnings.
- 3 and 6-y-o's have a very poor record.

Draw: Those drawn lower than 14 have won 9 of the last 10 runnings of this race.

- 9 of the last 10 winners were rated at least 93
- 8 of the last 10 winners ran at Royal Ascot
- 7 of the last 10 winners were Distance winners

Barry Hills has had 6 runners in this race in the last 10 years and had 1 winner and 3 placed so we can expect a big run from his pair Zaahid and Giganticus.

Giganticus looked like he was returning to something like his best last time out in the Bunbury Cup when running on well in 5th but I'm going to give another chance to Zaahid who may not have had the best of the draw in that race.

This 4-y-o appreciated the drop in trip when taking the Victoria Cup over C & D back in May and at around 16/1 looks to me, good Each Way value.

Each-Way Selection: Zaahid

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Saturday Fun.

As promised here's a fun intelligence test to try out those brain cells. Apparently Bill Gates only managed 3 points on a test very similar to this one so don't despair if you don't score too well....

1) Is it legal for a man in California to marry his widow's sister?

2) A farmer has 17 sheep, and all but 9 die. How many are left?

3) How many two pence stamps are there in a dozen?

4) How many animals of each sex did Moses take on the ark?

5) Some months have 31 days; how many have 28?

6) Divide 30 by a half and add 10. What is the answer?

7) A doctor gives you three pills telling you to take one every half hour. How many minutes would the pills last?

8) If there are 3 apples and you take away 2, how many do you have?

9) How many birthdays does the average man have?

10) Sarah's father has 5 daughters, Nana, Nena, Nina, Nona and.....?

Bonus question: What do you have to fill a wooden bucket with to make it lighter?



I'll be back again tomorrow with further news on the Selector2 front,
Gavin.

The answers.
1) No, Because he must be dead to have a widow!
2)9
3)12
4)None, Moses didn't have an Ark it was Noah
5)12, All of them do
6)70
7)60 minutes
8)2
9)Just the 1
10)Sarah
Bonus Question: Holes!

So So Selector

The Selector2 System Trial: Day 4

A quick update on yesterday's selections;
Of the 5 strong bets there were no winners but from the seven '3 element' selections we did have three winners at 4/6, 7/4 and 11/4.

With a level stakes return of 8.17 points and with 12 bets staked this gives us a loss on the day of 3.83 points.

Not a good day but with a running total of +2.78 we're still nicely in front after three days trading.

You can see the sales pitch and read all about The Selector2 by clicking below;

The Selector 2

The Selector2 has thrown up 1 x 'strong bet' and 6 x '3 element' bets today and I will, of course, be back tomorrow to let you know how they get on.

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System Overload.

I have received a sackload (or whatever the online equivalent is) of emails with regard to the current system review and many of them relate to systems that are currently being used by our readers.

A couple are getting rave reviews but unfortunately there are more bad ones than good ones and a few real shockers as well.

I'll sort through them over the weekend with a view to naming and shaming the truly bad next week.

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Last chance saloon.

Apart from the King George (for the preview see Wednesday's post) there is plenty of other top class racing taking place tomorrow at both Ascot and York.

The race I'll have a look at today is the Group 2 Sky Bet York Stakes which surprise, surprise is run at York.

As this is only the 3rd running of this race we unfortunately don't have any reliable trends.
With plenty of genuine Group 2 horses in the field and a few runners waiting on the weather the race looks a good contest but a real punting minefield.

John Gosden looks to have found a good opportunity for Pipedreamer whose last two runs have been in top class company. He has excuses for his Group race defeats since his Cambridgeshire romp and surely, with conditions in his favour, he must go close.

Last years winner Stage Gift will find conditions completely different this year and will have to step up considerably on his seasonal reappearance to get competitive.

No surprise that Frankie prefers the other Goldophin runner, Campanologist who ran a career best last time out in the Eclipse. Leading 2 furlongs out until fading close he was run out of a place by Pipedreamer but having viewed the race many times over (like a recurring nightmare) I can't see any reason why he should reverse places.

To me, it's the other 3-y-o that is more interesting and regular readers will know I was quite sweet on Tajaaweed in this years Derby.
He was unable to give his true running at Epsom due to a combination of suffering a setback just before the race and the trip looking too far for him.
Dropped back to 1m 2f he should find this more to his liking.

Michael Stoute won the inaugural running of this race with a 3-y-o and I'll be giving Tajaaweed one more chance to confirm the promise of his Chester's Dee Stakes win.

Selection: Tajaaweed
Danger: Pipedreamer

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Time to study.

I'll be taking a look at the highly competitive Totesport International Stakes handicap in the morning.

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Friday Fun.

The Friday Fun feature will have to move to Saturday as I've run out of space. Get your thinking caps on as I have a fun Intelligence test for you.

Until tomorrow,
Gavin.

Go Selector.

The Selector2 System Trial. Day 3

Winners to report.

Though the 'strong fancy' system pick ran unplaced, I am pleased to report that of the twelve '3 element' selections FOUR won at odds of -
6/4, 3/1, 11/2 and 6/1. There was 1 non-runner.

These winners returned a level stakes profit of 8 points (Calculated at SP) and this means that after 2 days the Selector2 is now up 6.61 points.

An excellent days trading I think you'll agree and though it's still early days, it is a very promising start from the Selector2.

As for the software, it remains easy to use and the selections are laid out for you to easily record. It works on both the Flat and NH and selects horses over a wide range of odds.

However, something I do have a small issue with (and something another reader has emailed me about) is some of the spelling.

I'm probably being pedantic (okay, I AM being pedantic) but it doesn't instil* confidence in a product when Course is spelt Cource, Criteria - Creteria and Activation is Actication.
First impressions do count and it may get you thinking that if the software engineer can't get these prominently displayed words correct then what else may be wrong?

However, that said, I'm sure if the Selector keeps on picking decent priced winners then nobody (except me perhaps) will even notice or care!

You can see the sales pitch and read all about The Selector2 by clicking below;

The Selector 2

Today there are 5 'strong fancy' and 7 '3 element' selections.

Be sure to check out Nag3 tomorrow as I continue my appraisal and see if the Selector2 can keep up the good start.

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Talking of winners, it's nice to see that TTS is now back on track after what can only be described as, a very poor start to July.

We've had winners at 5/1, 6/1 and 7/1 from just a handful of runners this week and hopefully this is the springboard to put us back onto one of those lovely winning runs!

Results for the entire season can be found HERE!

I'll be back again tomorrow with further news on the Selector2 front,
Gavin.

*P.S. If there are any other pedants out there, apparently the English spelling of instil does only have one L. Even my spellchecker didn't know this, I guess it must be American.

Bo Selector......

Hello Dear Readers,

It's a lovely sunny day here in South Wales and with some excellent racing to look forward to at the weekend everythings just fine and dandy at Nag3 HQ.

I've got Matt coming down at the weekend to visit clan Priestley-Bell so while he's here I'll get him to write a few words for you as I'm sure you're all missing his little pearls of wisdom.

Business first though and,

The Selector2 System Trials. Day 2

I began the system trial in earnest yesterday and after logging into the software and waiting for the selections to appear I was ready to go.

After a bit of time (definitely longer than 2 minutes) they appeared clearly identified with the date, meeting, time and most importantly the name of the horse. Easy peasy.

Yesterday there were 9 horses that qualified under the '3 Main Element' system but no 'Strong Fancy' system selections.

"How did they get on?" I hear you ask.

Well, the 9 selections produced 4 winners and at Starting Price made a slight loss of 1.39 points.

Nothing too serious and with a long way to go nothing to worry about as yet.

Obviously, all you Betfair Savvy punters will be getting the 'extra gravy' which would probably have you showing a slightly better return but for the purpose of this trial I will stick to SP.

Today there is 1 x 'Strong Fancy' and 12 x '3 Main Element' selections and I will be back tomorrow to let you know how they get on.

You can see the sales pitch and read all about The Selector2 by clicking below;

The Selector 2


--------

The big Summer race of the flat season takes place on Saturday at Ascot and it is of course the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes.

A small field and a whole host of top class middle distance horses missing means that most of the shine has been taken off this midsummer racing jewel (I guess £850,000 isn't enough of an incentive to run these days!) but hopefully we'll still get a cracking race.

On the plus side - there are some very strong trends for the King George....

The first thing to note is that this is a race won by fancied runners.

- The last 4 favourites have all obliged
- 6 of the last 10 favourites have won
and
- 8 of the last 10 winners were from the first two in the betting.

Age.

- Only six 5-y-o's have won this race since 1951
- 3 and 4 y-o's have won the last 8 runnings

With the poor record of 5-y-o's and, unbelievably, no 3 y-o's in the field again it looks like concentrating on the 4-y-o's is the best policy.

Another thing to note is that, not surprisingly, Top Class horses win this race;

- 9 of the last 10 champions were Group 1 winners already
- 9 of the last 10 winners were placed in a Group1 or Group 2 race last time out
- All 10 winners were rated at least 120

Other trends;

- Only 1 winner in the last 10 years was making their seasonal reappearance.
- The other 9 had all run between 2 and 4 times already that season.

Which leaves us at this stage with just 2.....Duke of Marmalade and Mount Nelson

Oh no....It's that man again Aidan O'Brien!

There are major doubts about his stamina but the strong trends and the excellent record of fancied horses makes Duke of Marmalade the most likely winner .

That said;

At odds on, is he value?....Probably not
Will he win?.....Probably
Will I be backing him?....Definitely not!!

Gavin.

Punting Nemesis.......

System Trial

The system that I will be looking at over the coming weeks is The Selector2.

Previously just The Selector it has been upgraded and renamed to take in the new automated software that researchs and retrieves the days selections.

You can see the sales pitch and read all about it by clicking - The Selector 2

Like all the systems we trial at nag3- there is a 30 day, full 100% refund if you're not happy with the product.

The Selector uses a 7 step selection process and while obviously I can't divulge the 7 steps I can tell you that all the information is easily obtainable by looking through any racing paper.

But, as posted yesterday, the genius of the Selector is in it's ability to do the hard work for you. Just login, and with a few clicks, it sets off and works out all the days qualifiers.

Come back tomorrow to see how I get on with the setup and running of the software and more importantly, how good the selections are!

Nemesis

We all have a punting nemesis, you know, a jockey who never wins for you but always seems to be riding the horse that beats your fancy. A trainer that always gets a cough in the stable and goes on a lean spell whenever you start backing his/her horses. Maybe it's a horse who never wins when you back it but pops up at 20/1 when you give up on it or even a sportsman who wins everything until you get on the bandwagon, Roger Federer anybody?

With me it's always been Richard Quinn. I can't stand him. I've can't remember ever backing a winner with him on board and yet he always seems to ride like a man possessed when he's up against me.
All that riding quietly, trying to win cheekily by a short head drives me mad. Who's ever seen Kieran Fallon or Tony McCoy doing that?

Surely, It wasn't a coincidence that Henry Cecil's stable went into decline when Fallon lost his job and Quinn was made stable jockey.

He rode our horse Loves Design a few years ago at Brighton and did nothing to make me change my mind about him that night either, arrogant, aloof and bordering on downright rude! (Plus he got well beaten on our horse).
He is definitely my least favourite jockey and my punting nemesis.

Until this season and......Aidan O'Brien.
Undoubtedly a great trainer, with the best horses in training and on a Group 1 clean up campaign this season it should all be so easy but I just can't seem to get it right.
He is doing his best to ruin every race I bet on this season. Re-writing the record books, bucking all the trends and beating my horses by short heads. I've had enough

They say 'if you can't beat them join them!' so that's exactly what I've done.

I've backed him to win more than 26 Group 1 races before the end of the season and set a new world record - currently held by Bobby Frankel.
With 13 Group 1's so far this year and yet to launch his best 2-y-o's, Peeping Fawn about to return, plenty of 3-y-o talent (including the mighty Henrythenavigator) and with a group of older horses that are the envy of all trainers (Yeats, Haradasun, Duke of Marmalade, Mount Nelson, Soldier of Fortune) he surely must get close to that tally.

At 4/6 it's hardly a fantastic price but I've had enough on to get me to Vegas and it should make his trend breaking run a little more palatable.

So starting with the King George this Saturday (which I will preview tomorrow) it's;

Come On Aidan!


Betting site in trouble?

Persistent rumours are circulating that Betterbet's website is about to shut down.
Apparently the online site will close at midnight tonight (Tuesday 22nd July) and I suggest if you've got money in Betterbet, withdraw it now!

I'll be back tomorrow,
Gavin.

System review..........

We here at Nag3 get a lot of emails from prospective vendors asking us to trial their product and as you are all well aware they come with varying degrees of profitability.


Or, as Matt used to phrase it .......'The Good, The Bad and the Ugly'.

Over the years he has trialled many products for you and saw the full spectrum of that classic Western and now it's up to me to sort out the Eastwoods from the Van Cleef's.


I've been on the lookout for a suitable product since I took over the blog and after sifting through the usual pile of emails over the weekend one particular promotion caught my eye and due to it's rather unique selling point I decided to have a closer look.

As with most systems, it follows certain specific criteria in picking the selections but, and here's where it differs from the others, the software actually retrieves the horses that qualify for the day by automatically logging on to the Racing Post and doing the research for you.

So, instead of spending a couple of hours trawling through the papers applying this particular systems 7 step rule the software does it all for you in a couple of minutes.

That's the claim the vendor makes in his sales page and with some pretty impressive profit figures to boot I thought I'd take it for a trial, see if it all stacks up and pass on all the necessary information to you, dear readers.

So, starting tomorrow and using my own hard earned cash I will begin a 2 week trial of both the software and the selections.

Will it be Clint, Lee or Eli? Only time will tell,
Gavin.

Super Sprint?

The big race on Saturday is the Weatherbys Super Sprint.

A sales race with a field of 23 2-y-o's run over 5f is about as far away from my favourite type of race as is possible!

The trends are of no help as horses have won this race with varying weights, from various draws and at odds ranging from 6/5 favourite - 100/1 outsider.

Richard Hannon has won this race 3 times in the last 10 years but as he runs 6 this year it doesn't help us too much.

Colts, Fillies, maidens, multiple winners - they've all won this race and about the only thing that is guaranteed is that the winner will be a 2-y-o!!

The horse I will tentatively put up is the Mel Brittain trained Caranbola.
A very consistent front running sort, she just got worn down last time out over 6f.
She was conceding weight to the winner that day but gets into this field off the minimum weight and could take some pegging back.

Selection: Caranbola

A horse I feel a lot more confident about tipping and who will be carrying my money tomorrow is Corrybrough.
Henry Candy's charge looks like an improving sprinter and the 6f Group 3 Hackwood stakes should be the perfect opportunity to get some black type before moving on to bigger and better prizes later in the season.
The step up in trip, the ground and the track are all in his favour.
I just hope Ryan Moore doesn't overdo the waiting tactics!


Friday Fun
If Mount Nelson hadn't got up on the line to pip Phoenix Tower I would now be in Las Vegas celebrating my 40th birthday. Instead, it's work and a re-run of Vegas Vacation on DVD tonight.

Here's a clip from the film with Chevy Chase at the Blackjack table......





Before I go, I must mention Matt's horse Rapid City. It is due to run over hurdles at Stratford on Sunday. Hopefully the eight flights of hurdles will bring about a change in fortunes for connections after two very poor recent runs on the flat.
The trainer reported that he worked well the other morning, so fingers crossed for a good run.

Gavin.

Laybotpro conclusion........

Over the last couple of days I have been testing the more 'exotic' features of the Laybotpro.

These features allow you to customise your staking plan and also gives you the oppurtunity to recover losses from previous bets.

There are 3 seperate options to the Staking Plan giving you the choice of;

1) Fixed Stake: This is the default setting and lays all of your bets to the chosen amount which ranges from the Betfair minimum of £2 to a £200 maximum stake. As I said in an earlier post, be aware that this is the amount you will lay the odds at for your selection and is not your maximum bet exposure!

2) % of Bank Stake: This can be set to any percentage you choose and then the 'bot lays the selection to this % of your Betfair bank. Again this is not your maximum exposure but the amount you are laying the odds to. This is a very useful tool for systems that use a progressive bank staking plan.

3) Fixed Liability: Enabling you to set the maximum amount you wish to lay each selection to. This is a great starting point for all users but especially 'bot newbies as you get to set the maximum loss per selection. The range is adjustable from £5 - £500.

After choosing your setting the 'bot will continue placing your wagers until either;
i) all of your selections have run
or
ii) you reach your desired profit or loss for the day.

This profit stop/loss can be set anywhere from £2 to £50000 and once the amount you set has been reached the 'bot stops running and no more bets are placed.

Finally, and definitely the most exciting feature of the Laybotpro, is the Recovery Stake option. Not for the fainthearted and certainly not something to try straight away it is, as the name suggests, a way to try and recover any losses accrued during the session.

There are 3 parts to the Recovery Stake and each one adjustable depending on how patient or aggressive you wish to be in recovering any losses.

The first part is the % of the loss you wish to try and win back, the second gives you the option of selecting how many bets you wish to try reclaiming it for (1-100) and thirdly how many cycles you wish to carry on for in your recovery mission (0-25).

The way this works is by the 'bot claculating your loss so far for the day, taking the set % of the loss and adding this to your initial stake. It uses this new stake to lay your selections for the number of bet(s) you have selected over the number of recovery cycles.

It carries on doing this until one of the following happens;

i) You reclaim your losses (Good times!)
ii) You reach the maximum loss permitted for the session (Bad times!)
iii) The number of bets/cycles is exhausted.
iv) You run out of money in your Betfair account!!

As I said, not for the fainthearted as losses can quickly escalate if you experience a bad run of results but great fun when you're in simulation mode!

Laybotpro conclusion:

If you're looking for a 'bot to Lay your selections when you are away from your computer then the Laybotpro is for you. It is an excellent tool that can be relied on to place your wagers correctly.

Limited to just laying horses and greyhounds it won't cater for everyones needs but it does exactly what it sets out to do and does it both quickly and efficiently.

All in all it is an excellent Laying 'bot with plenty of settings to help protect your bank and limit your losses whilst still allowing you to maximise any profitable run.
The Laybotpro comes complete with an informative instruction manual but, should you need it, the customer service is also excellent. The 'bot designer Mark is always happy to answer any queries and he personally replies to all emails within 24 hours.

You can see the promo page and take it for a completely FREE 48 hour trial by clicking below;

LAYBOTPRO

Now all we need is a foolproof laying system to go with it.
The search will continue,
Gavin.

Irish Oaks plus the latest 'bot news.....

Today is the Irish Oaks and while the trends aren't that strong for the race there is a horse who looks very interesting to take the favourite on with.

- 8 of the last 10 winners had already won a race earlier in the season
- 7 of the last 10 winners had won over at least 1m 2f
- 6 of the last 10 winners had a top 4 finish in a Group 1 race
and
- 6 of the last 10 winners had won a Group race

-The only 3 favourites to have won in the last decade all started odds-on and had all won the Epsom Oaks
- The last filly to win the Irish Oaks after finishing out of the top 4 at Epsom was Ebadiyla in 1997

As you can see the trends don't look to good for the maiden, favourite Moonstone but Aiden O'Brien has bucked many a trend this season with his Group 1 winners and while I am going to oppose Moonstone I wouldn't be surprised to see her win.

I think the horse to take Moonstone on with is the French Filly Gagnoa. Trained by the French Master Andre Fabre, she ran a fine 2nd behind the wonder filly Zarkava in the Prix de Diane and has a couple of decent Group 3 wins under her belt.The ground should be fine for her and the way she was running on last time suggests the extra furlong and a half should be within her scope.

An interesting outsider is the Rae Guest trained Rosa Grace who has some pretty good place form to her name and battled on nicely last time out in a Listed race at Newbury. Another who should handle the softish ground she could run a big race at a big price.

Selection: Gagnoa
Each Way: Rosa Grace

--------------------

The latest news on the Laybotpro is that it continues to perform exactly as promised.

I put it through a rigorous test yesterday, changing the parameters and generally making sure all the features worked as they were supposed to. It passed every test and while I didn't go as far as Victor Kiam and buy the company I have now at least bought the product.

There are some Staking Plans built into the 'bot as well which give you the option of recovering losses in future races.
Using a set % of the loss to recover, a set number of races and a set number of cycles to reclaim the losses in, these tightly controlled features will be of obvious use to system users.

I shall be taking a good look at them over the next couple of days.

You can see the Laybotpro here where you can also take it for a 48 hour free trial;

LAYBOTPRO

Good luck,
Gavin.

Laybotpro update......

Working in a betting office I am afforded the luxury of sitting in front of my laptop whilst watching all the days racing. Many people may consider this a dream job (and they're probably right) but dream job or not, it did enable me to keep a close eye on the Laybotpro yesterday and see how it performed 'LIVE'.

And I can report that it performed admirably.
As that bloke on the Ronseal ad put it; 'It does exactly what it says on the tin'.

The Laybotpro has many adjustable options including one that allows you to set how long before each race you want your bets placed. This can range from 10 seconds to 10 minutes. The default setting is 60 secs and this is what I used yesterday.

The Initial Stake option also lets you set a fixed amount to Lay each horse too.
But please be aware that this is a Lay Stake and if the horse wins you will lay the horse's odds at this stake (i.e. if your Initial Stake is £10 and the horse is laid at 5/1 you will lose £50 should the horse win.).
The Initial Stake is not your maximium bet exposure!

Exactly 1 minute before the off time of the race the Bot 'comes alive'and will attempt to place your wager. The races in which the min/max odds criteria are not met straightaway Laybotpro will display the current fluctuating odds until either the price is right and the bet is matched or the race is off and the bet is not placed.

Immediately the bet is matched it is displayed on the screen with the Horse Name,the Stake and the matched Odds. As your bets are placed throughout the day a running tally is kept in a Bot Wallet.

You can easily set your minimum (1.1 - 39.90) and maximum (1.5 - 39.90) Lay prices to custom fit with whatever Laying system you are using.
I think this may be one area that could do with adjusting as the maximium (39.90) Lay odds may not be high enough to cater for some customers looking to lay big priced outsiders. Just a small point but one to be aware of.

That said, anybody who lays Horses or Greyhounds to pre-set stakes and odds will find this an invaluable tool for those times you can't be at your computer to place your bets.

There is a completely free 48 hour trial available and you can see the promotion page here;

LayBotpro

I'll be back again later with more updates on the Laybotpro as I put a few of it's other features to the test.
------------------

Thankfully, today saw the end of the Newmarket July meeting where about the only thing I got right all week was the fact that the racing their is impossible.

With the going now riding as heavy I don't suppose York will be much easier either but I do like a challenge and tomorrows John Smith Magnet Cup sure looks a challenge!

9 of the last 10 winners were aged 3 or 4 but with no 3-y-o's lining up this year I will concentrate solely on the 4-y-o's.

It may seem strange for a 1m 2f race to have a draw bias but very few horses have been able to overcome a high draw in this race, in fact 8 of the last 10 winners came out of a single figure stall.

Horses that didn't run at the Royal meeting have tended to do better in the Magnet Cup with 4 of the last 5 winners giving Ascot the swerve.

Richard Fahey, who has won the race twice in the last decade, runs 5 this year and on the trends Fishforcompliments comes out best of his but I am going to side with another outsider - PrinceForever.

He should handle the ground and with the Michael Jarvis yard in top form I'm hoping for a good run.

Selection: Prince Forever

------------------

Friday fun today comes from Belorussia and this story has been reported in most of the papers. It's Belarus's top ref whose pre-game warm up seems to have consisted of downing a bottle of Vodka, classic......



------------------

Finally, congratulations to Tom Dascombe for breaking his Group race duck in yesterdays July Stakes. Just to prove that it wasn't a fluke he followed it up with another Group 2 race 24 hours later bagging himself a big 2-y-o double and stamping himself as a trainer going places.
Tom Dascombe was one of Matt's trainers to follow this season and with Classic Blade and Firth of Fifth it looks like he has a couple of nice horses to further advertise his training skills. The first of many group winners we think...

I'll be back tomorrow with the latest 'bot news,
Gavin

Bot trials....

The 'bot I will be having a look at over the next couple of weeks is the Laybotpro and as the name would suggest it is a 'bot designed to lay your horses/greyhounds. It works on Betfair and, basically, it has been designed to save you having to be in front of your computer when the race occurs.

It is available with a free 48 hour trial and as long as you have a Betfair account it's ready to go straight 'out of the box'.

The first thing that struck me is the simplicity of the product. Everything you need is on a single page of the application and it fits easily onto the computer screen. Your Betfair account details are displayed at the top with your username and account balance.

There is an option to run the 'bot in Simulation Mode where no money is traded but it still runs with all the same features. I thought this would be a good starting point while getting a 'feel' for the 'bot.

Ticking the Horses and Simulation Mode boxes and pressing the Load Races button is all that is needed to set the machine collating all of the days Horse Races.

They are displayed in the main part of the page and run in chronological order, all very easy and straight forward.

There are plenty of options available in the Lay Panel but I'll leave them on the default settings for the time being and take a look at them later on in the week.

Once you have your selections for the day it's simply a question of clicking on the race time to bring up the runners for the race and then tick the box for the horse you wish to LAY.

Do this for all your horses, click on the Start button to set the 'Bot running and that is it. Bob's your uncle, Job done and off to work / the gym / the pub or wherever.

The 'Bot will now wait for the race, place your bets if the criteria you set are met and work out your Profit/Loss. This is all displayed in the Main Part of the screen so you can check it all when you return to your computer.

So far, So very good.

As a test today I will simply be laying the Racing Post Favourite for 10 units in each race at Newmarket and Warwick if the Betfair odds are between Evens and 9/1. I'll report back tomorrow to let you know how the 'bot performed.

You can see the promotion page for the product by clicking;

LaybotPro

----------------

I've had a lot of positive feedback for the Betfair Rapid I mentioned in an earlier post and if you haven't already got it you can still download it, for free, here;

Betfair Rapid

Judging by the comments it seems you appreciate the added speed it gives and one of the most popular features is the 'kill or fill' option enabling you to automatically cancel your bets if the price isn't matched, in a set time.

You can see the earlier post, I feel the need for speed, by scrolling down the screen.

----------------

Still on the subject of speed, tomorrow sees the running of the 6f July Cup with 16 runners set to go to post. Let's see how quickly we can narrow the field down;

- Only 1 winner aged 6 or older has won in the last 60 years
- 8 of the last 10 winners had contested a race at Royal Ascot last time out
- Only three of the last 20 winners had previously won a Group 1 race.
- The last 5 winners all came from a double figure draw

The key to the race looks like the Golden Jubilee at Royal Ascot but with the slower ground this time around we may get a different result.

Sir Gerry who seemed to get outpaced 2furlongs out but then rallied and ran on strongly to claim third will definitely appreciate the softer going and is my choice in a difficult race.

Utmost Respect is another horse who should appreciate the ground conditions and this improving 4yo from the in-form Richard Fahey yard may give the selection most to do.

Selection: Sir Gerry
Danger: Utmost Respect

Must dash,
Gavin.

I, Robot....

Things aren't quite as bad as Isaac Asimov would have us believe and, as yet, Robots haven't taken over the world but in our little world of horse racing they sure are taking over the betting exchanges.

Lets face it, not everyone has the luxury of being able to sit in front of their computer all day placing their bets race by race. So the ability to set up a 'bot' with all your bets for the day and then toddle off to work safe in the knowledge your wagers will be placed has got to be a big advantage.

But do they work? and just how good are they?

Well from tomorrow I will be looking at one of the many such 'bots' currently on the market and putting it through it's paces. I have to be honest and say that I've never used a 'bot' before so it's all new to me too. It should be fun...

I have chosen this particular 'bot' because it's available for a one off licence payment with no further subscription charges. There is also a 48 hour free trial available so you can try it for yourself before deciding if you want to buy it.

It looks like a great starter bot, easy to use and it has all the features needed to be up and running straight away, so let's see how it gets on.

-------------

Todays racing looks like the norm for the Newmarket July course, i.e. impossible!

In the 2 o'clock, Thebes, a horse who I tipped and who showed up well for a long way in the Brittania at Royal Ascot drops back in trip and may go well at a big price.

Also, something worth noting is that since 1996 Henry Cecil has a 53% strike rate with his 2yo's at Newmarket in July and at this particular meeting he is 7 from 10. Cloudy Start runs in the 3.45 and might also be worth an interest.

That's all for now folks,
Gavin.

Newmarket July meeting...

I don't really want to dwell on the last post too much but I was going to post a reply myself before Matt beat me to it.

As it was I, and not Matt, who wrote it I should therefore shoulder the blame for headlining the eventual winner as dodgy. I do however stand by the trends method of picking winners as races do tend to be won by the same type of horse year after year and while it's not an exact science it can help to narrow the field down quite a bit.

Nobody was more dissappointed to see Phoenix Tower caught on the line than me as I had laid the winner to a lot of money in my shop and had backed the runner up to pay for my 40th birthday celebrations in Las Vegas next week.

Final word on this subject and just for the record, the trend our friend highlighted as being 'ridiculous' i.e. Since 1996 no horse aged 4 or 5 has won the Eclipse after avoiding the Royal meeting has actually worked again as the first three home were all 4yo's who had run at Royal Ascot.


Moving on, and for those who are still happy to see the trends for this weeks July meeting at Newmarket here is the first of this weeks Group 1 races -
The Falmouth Stakes.

Only upgraded to Group 1 status 4 years ago, the trends for this race don't look particularly strong and I could be setting myself up for another mauling.

12 runners going to post but there is a slight doubt about Darjina due to a delayed ferry crossing. Hopefully, as the class act of the race she will line up because it looks like being a strong renewal of the race.

The Trends;

- No horse ran on a greyhound track against a badger within 45 days of the Falmouth Stakes.
(Sorry but I couldn't help myself. That is definitely the last word on the subject!)

- 8 of the last 10 winners had previous winning form over a mile
- 8 of the last 10 winners had won at least a Listed race
- 7 of the last 10 winners posted a top 3 finish last time out
- 7 of the last 10 winners had won earlier in the season
- 6 of the last 10 winners came from the first two in the betting

- Since the race has been upgraded to Group 1 status, 3 of the 4 winners had already won at Group 1 level.

Summary:


The undoubted class act Darjina, whose last 9 races have all been at Group 1 level, must take all the beating but a nightmare 13 hour trip to Newmarket could have left its mark and she may be worth taking on.

Sir Michael Stoute has won this race 4 times previously and I will side with his mare Heaven Sent who fits most of the trends and with a more restrained ride than last time may be the value bet.

Selection: Heaven Sent

Gavin

In Response To The Comments...

A quick riposte, dear reader, regarding a couple of comments...

1. Some non-trends person wrote - anonymously of course - this:

"What a surprise! The useless "trends" approach that doesn't even consider the merits of the horses racing TODAY...slips up. Who knew? "Since 1996 no horse aged 4 or 5 has won the Eclipse after avoiding the Royal meeting." Do you know how ridiculous a criteria that is for making a selection? No horse ran on a greyhound track against a badger within 45 days of the Eclipse. Quick...strike a line through all of them!"

Perhaps you weren't around when we cleaned up at Cheltenham or Aintree, or any number of other races, using a stats based approach. Perhaps also you didn't watch the race and see how unfortunate Phoenix Tower was.

2. Somebody else questioned how many people visit the site, saying:

""This little blog gets anywhere between 1,000 and 2,000 visitors each time its posted to" Yet hardly any comments. Walofs."

[I assume walofs stands for 'what a load of f!"£$ing s**t]

Click the image to enlarge it if you wish.



Sorry, but it really bugs me when people don't have anything constructive to say and just come here to bitch.

Whoever you are, please go back to the betfair forum or whichever other 'intelligent' society you crept in from. This is a place for people with something to say, not a place for people with nothing to say.

Gavin will back very soon with something more material, and apologies for my rant. (It's been a while!)

Until next time,
Matt (tired and annoyed)

I feel the need for speed.......

We here at Nag3 like to keep our readers up to date with all the latest betting tools available especially when they give us an edge in our quest for profitable punting.
So for those readers who didn't see the excellent column in Tuesday's Racing Post about Betfair Rapid allow me to bring it to your attention.

Betfair Rapid is a high speed betting assistant that accesses Betfair through the 'back door' via the Betfair Application Protocol Interface, or API.
You may have seen API's advertised or have heard of them and the usual high cost involved with purchasing them but I guarantee you won't find a cheaper one than this one on the market.

Why? Because it's FREE.

That's right you can download it for nothing, and it has no usage charges either. All you need is a Betfair account.

So what do you get for your no-money?

Basically, as the name would suggest, it's all about speeding up the process of placing your wagers.
From Rapid auto freshing of the prices (up to 5 times per second), to one click wagering, to faster bet acceptance it makes the whole Betfair experience that much faster.

There are many other great features including a 'fill or kill' option - where you can set a time limit for matching your bet before it is cancelled, essential for the in-running markets, 'weight of money' and a ''Quickbet' option where you can pre-set your odds, 1.01 anyone?

If you lay in-running or are fed up missing the price all the time you simply can't do without an API and this is a great starting point for everyone.

Designed inhouse by Betfair you can check it out by downloading it from here;

http://rapid.betfair.com/


*****

Beverley stages an evening card tonight and, as regular readers of this blog will know, the course has a huge draw bias in the sprints.
With 17 runners due to go to post for the 5 furlong dash at 8.20 it looks the perfect oppurtunity to get stuck in.

An Exacta on the high drawn horses(14-17) and an each way speculation on the massively priced Viewforth look the order of the day.

Viewforth may be a 10-y-o and getting on a bit but he has a lot going for him .
He's won over course and distance, loves the going, is 7lb lower than his last winning rating, has the assistance of Royston Ffrench in the saddle and most importantly comes out of Stall 16.

At 25/1 he's got to be worth an each-way interest.


And finally, for now, a bit of Friday fun.

Seeing as it's Wimbledon fortnight here's a short tennis themed clip from the classic TV show The Muppets. Expect the usual dodgy jokes and muppet mayhem....



Gavin.

Dodgy favourite.......

I thought I'd start with a look at this weekends Coral Eclipse.

With a dodgy looking favourite, in the shape of Mount Nelson (whose position in the market is surely down to his trainer), we might just have a chance of a nice ante-post punt.

One of the best races I've ever seen was in the 1988 Eclipse when the mighty Mtoto under a power packed ride from Michael Roberts got up on the line to beat Shady Heights. That was a great race and a vintage renewal with the likes of Triptych, Indian Skimmer and Broken Hearted all well behind and if you haven't seen the race before it's well worth trying to catch it on the Racing Uk's Eclipse preview that is running this week.

You could hardly call this years race 'vintage' but a winners a winner and there are some very strong trends for this race. Mainly;

- No horse aged 6 or over has ever won the Eclipse
Strike a line through the old boys- Marahel, Hattan & Rob Roy

- 9 of the last 10 winners were rated at least 117
Campanologist, King of Rome, Mount Nelson, Plan & Stotsfold don't look good enough.

- 11 of the last 12 winners had previously been at least placed at Group 1 level
Multidimensional doesn't have the class.

Which leaves Literato, Phoenix Tower and Pipedreamer

- Since 1996 no horse aged 4 or 5 has won the Eclipse after avoiding the Royal meeting.
- The last 10 winners had all run within the previous 28 days of the Eclipse

This gets Literato out of the way, though he may not get the softish ground he requires anyway and I make the race between the two horses who last time out finished 2nd and 3rd behind Duke of Marmalade.

Twice Pipedreamer has finished behind Phoenix Tower and both times the difference has been negligible (Short Head last time, Head and a Neck the time before) so there doesn't look too much between them, a point that John Gosden stresses in todays Racing Post.

However, I'm going to side with Henry Cecil's colt to come out on top again but will be having a saver on the Gosden ex-handicapper just in case.

It looks like both of these horses will be trading shorter come the off and suggest taking the 9/2 and 11/2 available now.

Selection: Phoenix Tower
Saver: Pipedreamer

Gavin