Trainers To Follow For 2008: Part 3

The nose on your face, dear reader, can be pretty plain sometimes. Especially when you have a proboscis like mine.

And occasionally, just occasionally, there is a racing trend or statistic that is so blindingly standout obvious that we pretty much all know it. Why is it, then, that we choose to ignore such 'free money' information?

Typically, it's because we're lazy / indisciplined / stupid. At least, those are my most common excuses.

But there's no excuse for not backing this bloke. None whatsoever. Not a one. Who?

What do you mean., "who?"?!

Of course, I'm talking about the one and only indomitable Sir Mark Prescott. In a business where bookmakers and punters between them quickly squeeze the value life out of every profitable loophole and niche trend around (that's why the research in TFS is fresh each year), this guy remains calm and serene atop the throne of 'handicap king'.

If you blindly backed Prescott's horses in handicaps, you'd nigh on make a profit. With a little wit and wisdom, you can optimise your returns rather nicely.

This is what I did: of course, I'm only looking at male horses and, as I've said, I'm only looking in handicaps. Moreover, let's focus on 2-4 yo's (Sir Mark has a few older horses but they tend not to do the biz for some reason).

Pretty straightforward to this point, but now we get contrarian. It is my view that contrary wagering approaches are the best way to beat the book. So...

Let's ignore last time out winners as they are overbet for obvious reasons. Let's also forget about odds on shots: they are actually unprofitable for Prescott and backing at less than 1 is not a great habit to have anyway!

So, we're looking at 2-4yo male handicappers; evens to 14/1; didn't win last time out.

YEAR		WINS		RUNS		STRIKE%		LSP		LSP%		VSP%
2003		20		58		34.48		29.2		50.34		42.26
2004		13		45		28.89		26.13		58.07		27.89
2005		8		31		25.81		-2.17		-7		19.02
2006		13		50		26		31.75		63.5		7.22
2007		14		50		28		8.53		17.06		23.52
		68		234		29.06		93.44		39.93		25.21

Apart from a blipette in 2005, there's been plenty of cash and a pleasingly high strike rate from taking a non-standard approach to a very established training pattern.

Do not ignore the mighty Sir Mark P: you have been warned!

********

Moving on, as we must, and after a few days with no flat turf action, grass speedsters return at Folkestone tomorrow. Two runners, one for each of our TrainerFlatStats trainers at the track, will give us a spot of entertainment.

Incidentally, I'd be against likely warm favourite Glorious Gift in the maiden: with no soft ground form and from a bad draw, 6/4 or thereabouts looks a layable price (usual egg on face possibilities here...)

Also incidentally, I've had a couple of emails along the lines of the below from eager beavers hungry for some TFS action last Saturday, when there were no qualifiers:

"Just a quick note to say i can see why Mr Ryan has such a good LSP in Doncaster handicaps, although not a qualifier, i took an ew punt on High Curragh in the 4.10 today which was a good 2nd @ 25/1. The fact i got on @33/1 ew in a 16 runner handicap meant i almost got my money back today, but it was a brilliant result in what for me was a disappointing day."

I know there were a few of you who backed this horse, and you'll be delighted that he placed at around 7/1, but over the course of the season I counsel discipline in sticking to the 14/1 rule. It's difficult and I occasionally fall foul of my own sermon, but best results will be achieved by following the letter of the TFS law.

If you want to know the nigh on certain qualifiers (barring a leg falling off!) tomorrow, get your copy here:

www.trainerflatstats.com

Finally, on the 'incidentally' incidentals front, one of my six trainers to follow (the darkest of the dark ones!) has a fancied runner at Folkestone tomorrow. He's not in TFS yet, but its only a matter of time: I reckon he must be drugging his horses to make them this good! As the incomparable Matt 'Chappers' Chapman might say, "They're doped up to the eyeballs!" [allegedly].

More on this later in the week.

That's all for now though...

Matt

Grand National 2008 Preview Plus Bumper Bonuses!

In the words of the immortal Two Ronnies, dear reader, "In a packed programme tonight...", I'm taking a look at the Grand National and narrowing the 115 entries down to my shortlist of five or six.

I'll also be sharing with you number two on my list of trainers to follow this Flat season.

I'll be telling you about a website that I reckon is well worth a squint if you're into your horse racing (and, lets face it, you wouldn't be here if that wasn't true!).

And, as a special bonus, I'll be giving you free access to TrainerTrackStats, the jumps guide which has been generating impressive profits for its small army of loyal followers this Winter season.


So let's get cracking!

First up, by way of illustrating the fantastic winner finding potential of TrainerFlatStats, I'm giving you the chance to review TrainerTrackStats for free. There's no catch: simply click the link below to download the guide, and check it out.

DOWNLOAD TRAINERTRACKSTATS FREE HERE

Of course, when I say there's no catch, I'm obviously hoping that you'll be sufficiently impressed with the quality of the research, and its ability to find winners that you'll agree I'm virtually giving away TrainerFlatStats. I mean, how many products do you know that actually track their results, let alone are able to demonstrate a profit?

Results for TTS can be seen here:

TrainerTrackStats Results Page

STOP PRESS: 11/2 WINNER TODAY (FROM 3 RUNNERS) PUTS US OVER £2,000 IN PROFIT THIS SEASON, FOR JUST £20 STAKES!!!

If you like what you see, which I hope you will, then you can secure your copy of TrainerFlatStats here:

DOWNLOAD TRAINERFLATSTATS 2008

Enough already, and on with the show...

Next up is the much awaited (by me anyway!) preview of the Grand National, which see the tapes go up at 4.15pm next Saturday afternoon.

Last season I managed to find 33/1 winner Silver Birch, and I'm hopeful that I can do something similar this year but, for reasons that I'll come to, I'm less confident than usual...

First of all, let's consider the race at a high level, and then focus on the specific attributes that a Grand National winner should possess:

Point number one, and absolutely crucial, is that the Grand National is NOT a lottery. For sure, you need a little luck in running. But the unique demands of the race mean that many animals are simply not capable of winning it. By eliminating these from the start list, we will end up with a shortlist that, granted aforementioned fortune in transit, should isolate the winner.

When I say it's a unique race, what exactly do I mean? Well, I mean this: it's the longest race in the British calendar, it has the most runners in the calendar, it has the most fences to jump (with the exception of, I think, the cross country race at Cheltenham, that may actually be a fair trial for this race), and the fences are different from any other race (aside from the four or five other races run on the track).

The trends for the race are extremely strong, and support the notion that you need a certain type of horse to win the race. Enough bluster already Bisogno, cut to the chase (if you'll pardon the fence-jumping pun).

First up, the winner has been aged between 8 and 12 every year since 1940 (Bogskar), so if your fancy is not in that bracket, you can pretty much forget it.

From the 115 starters, less Royal Auclair, Alexander Taipan, and Patman Du Charmil who don't run, this removes eighteen.

Down to 94 confidently, but still plenty of whittling to be done!

Normally, my next trend would be that the horse must be due to carry 11 stone or less. I say normally, because this is the stat which terrifies me this season. I still cannot ignore its importance overall, but will leave it until last, so that you can see the shortlist before making this stipulation, and after...

Given that there's only six days to go until the race, its unlikely that any horse outside the top 60 in the weights will get to run, so we'll lose the rest. That's the 44 remaining runners from Livingstonebramble to the bottom of the handicap.

A round 50 left: trouble is, this represents most of the likely starters!

So next we'll look at experience. It goes without saying that you need an experienced animal to cope with the hustle and bustle of a race such as this. There are two criteria here for me: I won't entertain any horse with less than ten chase starts or any horse that is not into at least their third season jumping the bigger obstacles.

Just 37 left now, and I've (foolishly?) eliminated the warm favourite, Cloudy Lane, who is a second season chaser with just eleven chase runs to his name. I don't swerve him lightly, but I do swerve him.

Now let's smash another myth about the race. "You need a two mile chaser to win the National"... I'd like to swear at this point, but will refrain... It is advantageous to have a horse who can race close the pace (most of these are fairly one-paced, so they're not going to make up forty lengths in the last quarter mile), but you must have a horse with proven stamina.

If your horse hasn't won a chase over three miles or more, he ain't gonna win the National. Fact. So let's delete those that are doubtful / non-stayers.

Another five bite the dust, notably big ante-post mover, King Johns Castle, who has never won a chase beyond 2m1f, nor even a hurdle beyond 2m3f. He's got another two miles to go here... Might do it, but probably won't.

OK, continuing the logic theme, there are forty horses lining up here, so you need a beast that can handle the bustle. If it hasn't won a race with a dozen or more starters, it is unlikely to cope with thirty-nine antagonists!

Thirty still in with a squeak at this point, and time for a bit of anti-Gallic sentiment. Now, regular readers will know I'm something of a Francophile, which is to say I really rather like the nation across the little southern sea. But when it comes to the Grand National, or Le Nationale Grande as they probably call it, it's a big 'non' for French-bred horses.

Lots have tried, some have come close. But none has won for about 100 years. Scratch the Frenchies. It's au revoir then to our two ami's, L'Ami and Kelami, as well as well touted Mon Mome, amongst a couple of others.

26 remain.

Now then. A very important stat: winners of the Grand National are classy beasts. They have previously won or placed in a Graded chase.

Just eighteen left now, but it is getting tougher to choose between them. 18 from the last 19 winners had their most recent run within 6 weeks of the race itself. This removes a number of my fancies, but I don't feel I can ignore the importance of a recent run.

So it's ciao ciao to Vodka Bleu, Bewleys Berry, D'Argent, Cornish Sett, and Philson Run.

Of the 13 left in, four carry more than 11 stone, and so I reluctantly eliminate Hedgehunter, Billyvoddan, Simon and Slim Pickings.

Dun Doire and Joes Edge may struggle to get into the race, as numbers 52 and 53 respectively, but if they run they'd be of interest.

This leaves the 2008 Aintree Grand National shortlist, and their current odds (betfair odds in brackets), as:

McKelvey 20/1 (25)
Point Barrow 20/1 (28)
Baily Breeze 66/1 (90)
Naunton Brook 66/1 (330) DOUBTFUL RUNNER
Comply Or Die 12/1 (13)
Idle Talk 66/1 (75)
Homer Wells 50/1 (620) DOUBTFUL RUNNER
(Dun Doire) 40/1 (55)
(Joes Edge) 40/1 (60)

Take out the two likely non-runners, and you are left with five to follow now, and two more should they make the cut on Thursday.

Here's hoping!

********

Now for part two of my Flat trainers to follow this season, and a very interesting trainer to boot.
Dual purpose and selective is his game, Tom Tate is his name.

Since 2004, he's been a man to follow for sure:

YEAR	WINS	RUNS	STRIKE%	LSP	LSP%	VSP%
2004	9	36	25	25.88	71.89	40.33
2005	7	39	17.95	10.5	26.92	16.86
2006	9	48	18.75	19.86	41.37	13.28
2007	16	85	18.82	10.48	12.33	12.73
____	________	________	________________	______	__________	________
	41	208	19.71	66.72	32.08	18.48

A nigh on 20% strike rate, and a profit of £165 ish a year on average for £10 stakes.

[Note, as always, this is with male horses at 14/1 or shorter: its the TrainerFlatStats way!]

Look out for Tom Tate: he was a friend of TTS jumps followers this season too, with Charlie Crab and he looks set to continue his blazing form this flat season. You're on notice!

*********

Finally, I'd like to draw your attention to a website that may well be of interest to you. As a keen follower of stats, trends and systems myself, I like the look of a new site called Online Betting Exposed.

There's masses of content on there (and a somewhat embarrassing review of myself: I didn't pay them, I assure you!!).

Importantly, and ignoring any references there to me (!), there are impartial reviews of lots of the current 'fad' systems for which you may have seen emails in your box in recent weeks.

As time becomes more pressing for me, and I have less opportunity to review systems myself, I'm happy to point you in the direction of Paul and his team who do an excellent job of impartially reviewing the latest product offerings on the market.

Check them out at www.onlinebettingexposed.com

Until next time, may your next wager be a winning wager,
Matt

Friday Fun: I Love My Creature Comforts

I'm away, dear reader, catching up on a spot of business here in Bratislava (it's in Slovakia, if you didn't know. Slovakia was part of the former Czechoslovakia, if you didn't know. Beer here is 60p a pint if you didn't know!)

But there's still time for a spot of Friday Fun, and this week I'm reminded about how I miss my creature comforts... so here's something that I hope will tickle you like it's tickled me!



By the way, if you're new to my little blog, welcome! And if you're wondering about TrainerFlatStats, I can tell you that its sister guide, TrainerTrackStats, has found winners at 8/1 and 10/1 yesterday from three qualifiers (the other one finished 2nd at 9/4), and banged in another 8/1 winner today, as well as a 7/1 winner. Get in!

The full story is here, and is indicative of what you can expect with TFS 2008. (Note, its quite a big file, so hang in there...!)

I'll be back on Sunday with a Grand National preview; the second in my 'Six Flat Trainers To Follow' series; and a website that you might be interested in (lots of quality free content).

Until then, Happy Friday and, as they say here, Na Zdrovie! (probably spelt wrong, so apologies to any Slavic readers).

Matt

Six Trainers To Follow In 2008: Part One

Winners, dear reader, they are easy to dream of but harder to come by.

That is, unless you've already secured your copy of TrainerFlatStats 2008, which came up with another winner yesterday, this time at 9/2. It also nominated a 7/2 2nd place from just four qualifiers.

The price has now gone up alas, but you can still get a copy for £49 from

www.trainerflatstats.com

If that doesn't float your boat, then you probably like betting losers (sorry, a bit too sales-y?)... but...

How about some trainers to follow this season?

Here's part one in a series of six...

Step forward Mr Clive Cox...

With his 2, 3 and 4yo's (males, 14/1 or shorter), the man is a profit machine:

YEAR WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP%

2003 10 53 18.87 26.10 49.25
2004 7 48 14.58 7.50 15.63
2005 13 62 20.97 18.13 29.24
2006 13 82 15.85 19.83 24.18
2007 16 70 22.86 20.90 29.86
__________________________________

59 315 18.73 92.46 29.35

As I reckon the formatting may have screwed up, that's 20.90 points profit last year, and a total of 92.46 points over the last five years.

He's set to continue his fine form in 2008, so keep him on the right side. You heard it here first!

Look out for Part 2 over the weekend...

Matt

TrainerFlatStats 2008 Off The Mark... With A 10/1 Winner!

Doldrums is how I think of this period, dear reader, between the big meetings at Cheltenham and Aintree, and when the Flat season has yet to hit stride.

The changing ground never helps either, and equine fitness is often more of a trust issue than it ought to be, with nags either 'needing the run' (should a professional trainer be allowed to enter an unfit horse for a race?!) or 'over the top' (this one is trickier to quantify and is usually something you appreciate after the race).

So it was that I was expecting a quiet start for TrainerFlatStats, with many trainers fumbling their way into the season with a few token runners, more in hope than expectation.

Pah! Forget all that, for TFS08 has hit the ground running... and at 10/1 to boot (available at over 13 on betfair).

Nortune is the name of the blessed beastie, and backed he was from 12/1 to 9/1 before being returned at 10's.

So... if you're a waverer or a fence sitter or a procrastinator (don't you know its the thief of time?!), then this is for you...

Because I made such an almighty pig's ear of launching TFS this season, I'm going to extend the period that you can get it at a bargain price.

I will remove the page sometime on Tuesday, to allow those who only get emails from me to their work email addresses (naughty, naughty, you know who you are...!) a chance to respond.

But be assured that on Tuesday night, the game's up and it will cost you a bit more to get hold of TrainerFlatStats for the season. In fact, I'm working on the page now and, because I'm using Clickbank as my merchant partner this time, the guide will retail for $97. That's about £49.03 (according to xe.com, and they tend to know about these things).

But through the link below, which will disappear Tuesday evening, its only £27 (that's about $53.42, in case anyone was interested. No... didn't think so!)

Quick pause for thought then: £27 now, or £49.03 in a few days time, when I may have upset you with more tales of tidy winners and draw biases pointing to the winners' circle?

It should be a no-brainer, unless - as the oddschecker ad ran - you haven't got a brainer...

Anyhoo, enough marketing mumbo-jumbo for now. It's there, it's still piping hot, there's three meetings tomorrow (should they beat the weather), and now is the hour to get yourself a pointer or six on where the punting shekels should go.

I've put the link at the bottom this time because of the mysterious 'white space' that appears when I paste it in [Sheesh, I'd be dangerous if I had an IT iota!] ... it's down there... keep scrolling!

I'm off to the pub, for a well earned glass of the black stuff.

Matt

LINK REMOVED

TrainerFlatStats 2008: Some Administration

It seems, dear reader, that I am not very good with technology... In fact, when I say that, I could probably readily dispense with the 'it seems' prefix.

In my eagerness to release TFS08 ready for the Flat Season which debuts today, I've been left searching the internet for the collective noun for either gremlins or cockups.

Having found nothing I'll volunteer a cacophony of cockups, and/or a grumble of gremlins...

The reason for such downbeat introspection? Why, the launch of the very same TFS08!

You see, the product is - in my humble (and marginally biased) opinion, really very good. The offer to your good selves, my long (or in some cases short) suffering readership, really quite splendid. But the presentation of the offer has, thus far, stunk!

So here are a couple of points of administration to help you through my howlers:

1. Please IGNORE the email which takes you to a $27 page. Having not referred you to a link on a web page, I was not only unable to fix the error, but I would also have been unable to close the offer Sunday night as stated. I am a techno-buffoon.

[My thanks to those who have already acknowledged the error of my ways and now used the correct link].

2. If you are interested in taking advantage of the Easter Special offer, please use the link below, which - please God - works like a dream (apart from the big space, which I don't know how to remove: it is not a case of using the 'delete' key!).

LINK REMOVED

3. Once you have been through the PayPal process, you will be taken to a download page.

4. Away you go...

PLEASE NOTE: THERE WILL BE NO DAILY EMAIL SERVICE THIS SEASON

I'm rapidly running out of similes for sorry this weekend, and need to find myself a new service provider to boot. All rather frustrating, but my woe not yours.

Good luck at Donny - it's a no bet meeting for me, except - as always as this time of year - to lay the prolific all weather scorers with no turf form.

Likely candidates today include Hoh Wotanite (7 AW wins, no turf wins) for a place, and Intersky Charm for a place, though there will be plenty more before the months of March and April are through.

Sincere thanks for your patience with this most slapstick of ongoing Great British farces.

Matt

48 Hour Easter Special Offer: TrainerFlatStats 2008

I'm so excited, dear reader, and I just can't hide it!

I've literally just finished putting the finishing touches to my statistical guide for the Flat horse racing season, TrainerFlatStats 2008, and to say I'm very excited would be an understatement.

As well as the now traditional profitable trainer sub-trends, I've also added an insight into the draw for each track. This information is invaluable when you are planning to bet in many races with more than ten runners and, in combination with the trainer information, promises to offer some fantastic betting opportunities for the coming season.

LINK NOW REMOVED

To reflect the additional information, and the extra effort to produce this comprehensive guide to this season's Summer action, the price has been slightly increased to £47, which is still about the best value in racing.

However, for 48 hours only, I'm offering my loyal Nag3 readers the chance to get hold of a copy at the vastly reduced price of just £27.

That's virtually half price, and it's only available to Nag3 readers, and it's only available for 48 hours. At 11pm on Sunday evening, this offer will be withdrawn, and the price will go up by £20.

The Flat Season starts tomorrow at Doncaster, with the feature race, The William Hill Lincoln. There is further racing on Sunday at Musselburgh, and there are three meetings on Monday.

To ensure you get in from the start and at the best possible value, secure your copy now.

I'm so excited by this that I haven't even had time to put up the webpage, but I really wanted to give you the chance to get this while it's 'piping hot'.

Please be aware though, that there will be no daily email subscription service this season. Sorry for any inconvenience this may cause.

I hope this email finds you well, and that your Easter weekend is proving both relaxing and profitable.

Best Regards,
Matt

Bloglins Bloglems... They're Gremlins Problems With One's Blog...

Gremlins, dear reader, appear to have attacked my email notification system currently, which is why you've been spammed recently by me.

PLEASE ACCEPT MY SINCERE APOLOGIES FOR THIS. I HATE SPAM AS MUCH AS THE NEXT MAN, WOMAN OR OTHER EMAIL USER.

I have had to switch off the notification emails until I can work out what's happening with them, so remember to check back from time to time when you get a minute.

Now, if you'll forgive me for that, I hope you'll also forgive me for this final reflective touch of self-indulgence from last week. (I'm actually trying to cheer myself up, after splitting from my dear lady... My fault, not related to Cheltenham... Enough already.)

-----

Dear matt

I would just like to say thank you for the best Cheltenham i have ever had started the meeting off with just £20 & ended it with £1,191

if you are doing the same for aintree i would gladly pay a small fee for the right to receive your thoughts of that meeting

once again thank you

-----

Hi Matt,

I think you've every right to put bookie links on your blog page, you give damn good advice on there for free!

Once again yesterday you got me my stakes back with your selections, that's the 3rd time you've done it for me!

A better man would trust you completely and be considerably better off!

----

Hi Matt
Your analysis of tomorrows Cheltenham races is a real 'tour de force'...win or lose, absolutely brilliant. Miles in front of all the others I deal with, and, believe me, I deal with a lot!.
Let me tell you now; you really are the best,

----

Matt, absolutely wonderful selections on Nag Nag Nag, I had Nenuphar Collonges and Silver Jaro (85s) on Bf.

I did Tidal bay for myself on TTuesday and then followed TTS onto Katchit, so have had a great week.

Many thanks

----

Hi Matt,

Just a note to say a BIG thank you for your blogs on the Cheltenham Festival. They provided great entertainment and as it turned out a pretty profit too. I was following your portfolio picks and whilst I was only doing a trivial £2 a point I managed to get Silver Jaro at 99/1 on Betfair - Wa Hey!! Hope you had a great night last night and that your head is not too sore this morning!!!

Best Wishes to You

-----

Hi Matt.....

**** here again....I would just like to extend to you many thanks and my gratitude for a wonderful blog throughout the whole of Cheltenham.....You handed many people a very profitable Cheltenham....That person should not judge you on one bad call with Master Minded....especially when you made so many other brilliant calls throughout the week!!!!!!I think everyone would agree that you can be more than forgiven for that tiny hiccup!!! I, along with many others, sincerely hope to god that you do another blog for Aintree and continue to share your wisdom through the flat season!!again......many thanks.....

----

first of all i'd like to say i found your blog in the week prior to cheltenham. your insight into the racing was excellent and very informative as i am a great believer in trends. been waiting for your reaction to friday but it appears you are still on the lash :-) celebrating silver jaro, typically being human i was dissappointed with taking the 46 on betfair the night before racing. betfair sp 86s. typical human greed never happy ;-) i particularly liked when things didnt quite go according to plan you didn't paper over them and just got on with it. once again well done and i hope to hear more from your future blogs. trends is the way forward imo. here to the winner of the grand national . fingers xd. well done.

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Just a quick note to say thanks for some great advice thru' TRENDS on your blog, i found it to be very helpful, Using TRENDS i had a reasonable cheltenham, i bet on 20 races , only each way (due to generous prices) (ie no placepots or dutching - 1 horse per race) and had 2 winners and 8 places, and when you are getting 7/1 for a place (neptune collonges) it means i ended up making over 60% profit on cheltenham.Of course Nenuphar Collonges helped esp. as i got on at 14/1.

----

Enough already, my back is so sore from all that slapping. Seriously, it was a fantastic week and I doubt we'll ever be able to repeat it. But do consider this. Using a similar approach last year, we also slurped up 20/1 and 50/1 winners courtesy of Ferdy Murphy's L'Antartique and Joes Edge.

And we had the Grand National winner, SP 33/1, put up on here when available at 100 on betfair.

Ok, I need to get back to it: research for TrainerFLATStats really coming together now, and looking pretty exciting!

Talking of exciting... after no less than 333 days off track, Rapid City, in whom I own a leg, makes a very long awaited return to action at Kempton in tomorrow night's 6.50. I shall be there, but really he is going to be blowing out of his ample hind quarters after half way, so any interest should be kept to a minimum. [I'd do very well to take my own advice come post time!]

Bye for now.
Matt

Cheltenham 2008 - That Was Special!

Time, dear reader, waits for no man. And that includes me. So this is a very short post to thank you all for your kind words regarding the Cheltenham trends posts, which proved to be... well, really bloody brilliant actually!

The full score can be found at this link.

As you might imagine, I've had a few beverages over the past few days (and it's St Patrick's Day tomorrow...), so find myself massively behind in my research work for... the flat season, which starts on Saturday!

But fear not, for my tardiness is your gain (what?!), as I've prioritised the race meetings scheduled for the first week of the season and will make this available as a freebie later this week.

This buys me some time to sort my life out, and hopefully whets your appetite for what's to come. :o)

Anyway, I need to get back to it, so thanks again for your kind words, some of which I'll copy and paste anonymously on here in due course, in a blatantly self-congratulatory fashion, which I trust you'll forgive. (I will also take the time to reply to you when I get a minute, but please bear with me for now).

Before I close though, I wanted to share this email with you from Mr BJ (I was tempted to mention his full name, but felt that would be a little churlish...)

Matt

Any respect I had for your judgement went well and truly out of the window today .

Your statement that the winner of the Champion 2 mile Chase was the lay of the meeting was complete and utter rubbish .

This horse won in a hack canter and although you admit to getting it wrong it gives your credibility a zero rating .

I doubt if I will read any more of your blogs after this fiasco - you have simply lost it !!!

B**** [name blanked out]

It seems you can't please all of the people all of the time!!!

ttfn
Matt

p.s. If you'd like to add a comment, good or bad, regarding the Cheltenham posts on here or your own success or failure last week, do feel free. Just click the comments link directly below these words and scribble away. I like your feedback, and encourage more of it. It's your comments that shape the content on here, so don't be shy!

Cheltenham Nineteen Race Preview / Review Blogathon!

Blimey! That, dear reader, was a slog and – to be honest – was too much. In the end, I’d had enough and wanted it all over. I think you actually can have too much of a good thing…

It started well enough with Old Benny winning for trends followers and for TrainerTrackStats followers (who’ve also had Katchit and others), and the other horse in the race, Back In Line, finishing third. Despite collecting, I still can’t stand these amateur events.

In the second race, I stupidly dismissed the winner as I was miffed about missing the price before he won the Reynoldstown. Albertas Run was, nevertheless, a trends horse and flagged as such in my previous preview.

Third race and a 1-2 for the trends from three runners. 9/1 winner, 12/1 2nd, £125 exacta. I settled for my win bet.

But then it started to go ‘Pete Tong’… In the Queen Mother Champion Chase, I was fearlessly opposing the junior, Master Minded, and had got stuck into Voy Por Ustedes.

The record will show that Voy Por ran a great race, with the rest of the field beaten off. He was however trounced by an animal the likes of whose precocity we have rarely seen.

I never like doing my money (who does?!), but sometimes you just wipe your mouth, and admit you were wrong. I was wrong. Big time! This horse is an absolute monster and, barring accidents, should usurp Moscow Flyer in a few years as the greatest two miler of our generation.

If you think that’s hyperbole, watch the bloody race!



(Apologies for the French commentary)

Having had Back In Line (3rd) and Barbers Shop (2nd), albeit behind the backed winner each time, Voy Por Ustedes started an unwelcome trend of horses one place away from where I needed them to be.

The next race, Ryanair Chase, was won by Our Vic. I’d backed The Listener and also (foolishly?) banked on him in my placepot. That was the end of my placepot. He finished fifth only, with no excuses.

Then it all went really wrong. I’ve said some unpleasant things about amateur jockeys on here, but rarely slated a pro. That needs to change: step forward Mr Ruby Walsh.

Riding a proven stayer like Blazing Bailey with a waiting ride was nothing short of abject. Sure, I’m talking through my pocket, as my place banker finished where they all do: a never nearer fourth, staying on past stablemate and Choc Thornton-ridden My Way de Solzen. How I wish the Choc was on the Bailey. He’d have been third no doubt, without being good enough to trouble the front two.

In the hole at this point, and no respite. That was also race six, and the end of a usual day’s play. But today, we had another four races to savour / endure (depending on results).

Race seven, a handicap chase, and for the second time in a row, Walsh thinks he’s riding Pegasus and not Gwanako. As the doughty and redoubtable Mister McGoldrick tries to nick a few lengths turning in, Ruby decides to wait a while and then give chase. The bird had flown.

Now I’m not saying that Gwanako would have won, but when horses go toe to toe, things are different from when they’re offered an uncontested advantage.

Those who have got stuck into Ruby for top jockey have, I fear, come royally unstuck. (This may change tomorrow of course!)

He’s a dodgepot for me on this showing.

Races eight through ten were a bit of a blur, but for the punting record, Ballyfitz (18/1 winner) qualified on all trends except he carried 10-08, when I made the cut-off at 10-09 (!); Burntoakboy ran well in third in the penultimate (no excuses for my quintet of donkeys); and Corskeagh Royale nearly got me out of jail in the last. He too finished 2nd.

I did back Corskeagh for a place at 11/4, and reeled back some of my cash, but a losing day for sure. (Incidentally, I think Nina Carberry is an excellent jockey, but she rode about a furlong further than any other rider in this race, and that may have been the difference. Then again, it may not, as the winner was green as malachite (I’m tired of ‘green as grass’)).

To tomorrow… just the NINE races for us to solve. Some have been reviewed before, so I’ll just point you at the links in those cases.

David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle

A new race. No trends to follow.

Timeform favour Sweet Kiln (163) over Chomba Womba (158p). Of real interest I think though, is that both Alan King and Robert Thornton learnt pretty much all they know from the late David Nicholson after whom this race is named, so you can be sure that Theatre Girl will be trying for all she’s worth.

2pts win on Sweet Kiln and Theatre Girl for me.

Ballymore Properties Novices’ Hurdle

www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/2008/03/cheltenham-2008-ballymore-properties.html

Coral Cup (Handicap Hurdle)

The Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle is a Grade 3 contest over two miles and five furlongs. It’s a fiendishly difficult race to solve, with a huge field of 28 going to post.

Some key trends will reduce this somewhat, so let’s see what gives:

1. As with all Cheltenham Festival handicaps, it’s a tough race to concede weight in. No horse has lugged more than 11-03. In a very compact handicap this year, we remove the top dozen runners, including – just – the favourite, Leg Spinner, who carries a pound too much.

2. From the remaining sixteen, consider that the last ten winners were all aged 5-9yo, but furthermore, bear in mind that eight of them were 6-8yo. We’ll eliminate anything not in that midrange. Six more out leaves us with ten.

3. Eight of the last ten winners of this race had between one and four runs, which removes another trio.

4. Note that the last five winners of the race had already won that season. Two of our remaining seven fail on this score, which leave five.

I couldn’t put you off any of this quintet: Mendo, Clarnazar, Naiad du Misselot, Song Of Songs and Pyleigh Lady. Actually, saying that, Song of Songs has a serious stamina question to answer, but the other four are realistic contenders.

My final note, and the one that gives me my two against the field is that 70% of the winners in the last decade had been 1st or 2nd over the (slightly unfashionable) distance.

The two in here who still match that trend are Mendo and Pyleigh Lady. The latter is game, goes on all ground, and could give you something to shout about at a juicy, fat price: what chance an eye-popping ride from Mr I Popham, claiming seven?!

JCB Triumph Hurdle

www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/2008/02/cheltenham-2008-triumph-hurdle-preview.htm


Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle

This is another newish race, with just three runs to date. To be honest, I couldn’t find any really strong trends except that all three races so far have been won by a proven stayer, with course experience, Graded form (won a Listed race or better) and starting at a single figure price.

The likely winner – on that flimsy evidence at least – will be none of them! But it’s not Nenuphar Collonges’ fault he’s a 16/1 chance. And, having won over course and distance in a Grade 2 event, he looks a fat price.

2pts each way – let’s get stuck in!

Gold Cup Chase

I reviewed this way back in January, based on trying to find a horse to make the frame:

Moving on to the Gold Cup, and for many people its a match between stablemates Kauto Star, the champ, and Denman, the contender. Exotic Dancer is priced in most books as the most likely bronze medallist.


But how often do races actually turn out that way? Let's think for a second about the way the race will pan out: Denman, the slugger, will try to grind victory out from the front by browbeating his opposition into timid submission.


Kauto, all class, the Muhammed Ali to Denman's Joe Frazier, will float like a butterfly prior to stinging like a bee. Or will he? Kauto tends to, excuse me, twat a fence from time to time. And, with a ferocious pace nigh on guaranteed, he could find the examination has one or two trick questions that may just catch him out.


(Sincere apologies for the ugly mixed metaphors in the above).


So, I'm predicting one of the two will win the race - shock, horror! However, I am also predicting that the one that doesn't win, will not place either. Either Denman will run himself ragged and not get home, or Kauto will stumble and tumble.


Which leaves us with two places to play with and not that many horses to consider. The stats say that nine from the last ten Gold Cup winners were aged 7, 8 or 9. Forget 10yo Kicking King then, despite his run today, which proved little more than he still has a leg in each corner and a touch of class.


I'm also excluding Exotic Dancer, on the basis that the horse has had a setback, and will miss his intended engagement next weekend. As I've mentioned here before, in Championship races, do not back horses who have had setbacks. Very rarely can they overcome them, and still be good enough to kick turf in their peers' noggins.


My shekels have landed on a couple of dark ones who, in fairness, may well not even run in the race. But, for small beer, I reckon they're worth a tickle each way or place only.


They are Halcon Genelardais and Mossbank. Halcon is trained by the best jumps trainer in the country, Alan King, and King's Cheltenham record stands the closest examination.


No horse with a Racing Post Rating lower than 163 has won the race, and 8 out of 10 had a previous RPR of at least 170. HG weighs in at 171, after his impressive - if excruciating - head defeat in the Welsh National, where he lugged 11-10.


Mossbank has a very progressive profile. Having been tonked in the Sun Alliance Chase last season, where he was never put in the race, this season he won his first two starts (a £50,000 to the winner handicap chase, and a Grade 2 where he bolted up from some reliable old sticks).


Last time out, he took on Denman in the Lexus Chase, and only gave best by four lengths. He travelled impeccably that day, giving me hope that a) he will stay, and b) his trainer will also feel that way and run him in the Gold Cup.


Halcon is currently trading at 110 on the exchange, while Mossbank is available at 75.

At those prices, throwaway wagers may give you something luvly jubbly to shout about come middle March.


To be honest, I don’t think Exotic Dancer can overcome an interrupted preparation, and – as I’ve said – I don’t think Kauto and Denman will both be in the frame. So, I reckon there are two places to play for.

I still fancy Halcon, but I’ll put up Neptune Collonges as the second leg of an unlikely Collonges each way double (remember Hussard Collonges winning at 33/1 in 2002?!).

Christie’s Foxhunters’ Chase

They’re at it again, those intrepid (insipid?) amateurs! This time in the ‘amateur’s Gold Cup’, for hunter chasers.

Some interesting patterns have emerged here, and I’m going to take a big chance, as you’ll see momentarily.

Firstly, eight from the last ten winners were aged in single figures. This eliminates nine veterans from the starting 24.

Aside from Paul Nicholls, whose recent record in the race is very good, ignore horses coming predominantly from handicap chases (as opposed to hunter chases). We are able to squeeze out another six by dint of this approach, which leaves nine.

Now for the controversy. In 2006, the Irish had the first FIVE home. In 2007, they had 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 6th.

But the record shows that Whyso Mayo two years ago has been the only Irish winner in the last ten years. Peppering the target is one thing, hitting the bullseye has proved to be quite another. [Egg on face opportunity…]

This leaves five. Consider that all of the last ten winners started at 20/1 or shorter, which this quintet probably / possibly all will, so have half a point on each of Bon Accord, Drombeag (last year’s winner), Lou Du Moulin Mas, Natiain, and Southwestern.

Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase

If Alan King is desperate to win David Nicholson’s race, so Nicky Henderson will be mad to repeat his previous success with Greenhope in the race named after his ‘old man’. Alas, the stats are against him, despite him running three nags.

- Last eight winners all shouldered 10-11 or less (we lose half the field at a stroke)
- Seven of the eight were aged seven, eight or nine (just four left!)

It gets a bit trickier now: six of eight had had three or more runs prior to winning here. Six of eight had also placed or won last time out. And six of eight were officially rated between 130 and 134.

None of our quartet satisfy all of these, but one satisfies none of them, which leaves three.

The remaining trio all satisfy two of the three criteria, and we’ll go a point on each:
Enlightenment, Magic Sky, and Tramantano.

Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle

As ‘get out stakes’ or ‘lucky last’ races go, this is up there with the most insoluble. On the face of it at least. But the longest winning price in the last ten runs was 16/1, and that was on a Martin Pipe trained animal, so all hope is yet to be lost.

Let’s look closer:

28 start. The last ten had all been aged in the rather wide bracket of 5-9 years old. This still leaves us with 26.

8/10 carried 11-01 or less to victory. In almost all Festival handicaps, it’s tough to win with the weight (although Blowing Wind and Spirit Leader have managed it). Unless the dark horse, Wanango, proves very good, I doubt we’ll see a weight carrying performance here, so let’s strike out another nine. Seventeen left in.

This is a race for the battle hardened (horses as well as punters!), and nine out of the last ten winners had already had at least four runs that season. We’ll discount another five, leaving twelve.

Remarkably, the next pattern evicts all but two of the previously remaining dozen: eight out of ten winners were placed last time out.

So there it is. The winner of the County Hurdle will be either Silver Jaro or Dark Bolero. Who?! But you said the winner had to be 16/1 or shorter…

I know, and I suspect that Dark Bolero will come in for support. Either way, I’ll wager a point each way on both. I may need a big priced winner to get me out of jail at this point!

Trends Choices

12.30 (Advised 13th March) 2pts win Sweet Kiln
(13th March) 2pts win Theatre Girl

1.05 (Advised 5th March) 1 pt Forpadydeplasterer 11/2 (General)
(5th Mar) 1 pt win Aigle d’Or (General)

1.40 (11th March) 1.5 pts e/w Mendo (25/1 general)
(11th March) 1 pt e/w Pyleigh Lady (50/1 Bluesq)

2.15 (28th Feb) 2 pts win Serabad 32 (betfair)
(28th Feb) 1 pt e/w Serabad 25/1 (general)

2.50 (13th March) 2pts e/w Nenuphar Collonges (16/1 Coral)

3.30 (24th January) 1pt win Mossbank 75 (betfair) Non Runner
(24th January) 1pt win Halcon Genelardais 110 (betfair)
(24th January) 0.5pt e/w Mossbank 50/1 (Sportingbet) Non Runner
(24th January) 0.5pt e/w Halcon Genelardais 50/1 (General)
(13th March) 0.5 pts e/w Neptune Collonges (28/1 totesport)

4.05 (13th March) 0.5 pt win Bon Accord (10/1 Coral)
(13th March) 0.5 pt win Drombeag (11/1 Coral)
(13th March) 0.5 pt win Lou Du Moulin Mas (9/1 totesport)
(13th March) 0.5 pt win Natiain (25/1 VC, bet365)
(13th March) 0.5 pt win Southwestern (22/1 totesport)

4.40 (13th March) 1 pt win Enlightenment (12 betfair)
(13th March) 1 pt win Magic Sky (65 betfair)
(13th March) 1 pt win Tramantano (38 betfair)

5.20 (13th March) 1 pt e/w Dark Bolero (33/1 general, 36 betfair)
(13th March) 1 pt e/w Silver Jaro (28/1 totesport, Sportingbet, 46 betfair)


Timeform Top Two

12.30 Sweet Kiln 163 / Chomba Womba 158p
1.05 Breedsbreeze 154p / Aigle d’Or 152p
1.40 Leg Spinner 173+ / Whispered Promises 172
2.15 Franchoek 168p / Five Dream 162
2.50 Gone To Lunch 158 / Lodge Lane 155p / The Tother One 155p
3.30 Kauto Star 195 / Denman 189p
4.05 Lou Du Moulin Mas 139 / Drombeag 138
4.40 Hasty Prince 169 / Andreas 166 / Tiger Cry 166
5.20 Mon Michel 166 / Leg Spinner 164+

‘p’ = potential for improvement; ‘+’ = might be better than quoted figure; ‘$’ = unreliable; ‘?’ = rating is suspect

Nap of the Day
3.30 Me to be drunk before the Gold Cup!

Lay of the Day
5.20 Me to be anyone’s by the time the County Hurdle is run!

The very best of luck to you... no blog tomorrow, for - I hope - obvious reasons!

Matt

Blown Out? Is This A Wind Up?!

Curiouser and Curiouser, dear reader, but then you know the windy abandonment story by now, so I'll not relate to it further.

Contentment in the knowledge that you did not lose money on day 2 may only be a temporary moment, for now we must brace ourselves for our own severe storm warning, with no less than NINETEEN races in two days!

Without so much as a moment to catch my breath, here are the trends for tomorrow's ten racer (lest you think you’re suffering from déjà vu, note that I’ve copied and pasted from yesterday’s blog in places).

Peter O’Sullevan National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup (Amateur Riders’ Novices’ Chase)

The title says it all. Well nearly. It’s also over a distance of four miles. And 27 fences. Twenty Seven. Fences. Amateur Riders. Four Miles.

It’s just a ridiculous concept for a race, and not really a betting proposition. Last year, Gungadu would have carted up, but for chucking the jockey off after at the penultimate fence. That’s the type of race this is. You need to be fearlessly reckless or recklessly fearless to punt big on it.

Nevertheless, parking my prejudices momentarily, I will share some stats that may (or may not!) persuade you to wager…

Firstly, I will only look at the last six renewals because, in truth, I can’t be arsed to waste my time on more than that!

So, all six winners were aged 7-10, with five of them seven or eight. I’ll side with the latter subset. This narrows twenty started down to eight.

Next, let us eliminate any horse that has not had at least four chase runs (inexperience will see you on your horse’y bum in this contest), as five of the last six winners had relative experience on their side. Another two bite the dust, as they almost certainly will do tomorrow afternoon.

One more point to consider: four of the last six won or were second last time out. It may seem cavalier to use ‘four from six’ as a material statistic, but anyone who wagers in this race is somewhat cavalier in my opinion anyway!

That leaves two. Old Benny and Back On Line. Very small stakes only.

Incidentally, and perhaps a better approach given that four of the last five winners were 25/1, 33/1 (twice) and 40/1, it might be better to suspend the above stats and note that Jonjo O’Neill has a phenomenal record in the race.

He’s saddled four of the last six winners, including 10/1, 25/1 and 33/1 shots. He runs two this time: Pass It On and King Of Angels, both of which are big prices.

Sun Alliance Chase

www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/2008/02/cheltenham-2008-sun-alliance-chase.html

Jewson Novices’ Chase

One of the new races and, as such, not a lot to go on: just three incidences of this so far.

Nevertheless, some pointers as follows:

All three winners were aged 7, but let’s widen the search band to 6-8 year olds.

All three winners carried less than eleven stone (it’s tough to lug the weight in handicap chases at the Festival, as I’ve alluded to previously).

All three winners were first or second last time out.

Pattern race form seems to be very important, with two winners and almost all the placed horses from the three runnings having been highly tried earlier in the season. (My thanks to the attheraces website for that cracking insight).

Just three horses fit this profile, and they are:
Barbers Shop
Ambobo
Fingeronthepulse

I’ll risk a point on each.

Queen Mother Champion Chase

www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/2008/02/cheltenham-2008-champion-chase-preview.html

Ryanair Chase

Another new race, so again it would be foolish to get too carried away with any embryonic patterns that may be emerging. In the interests of sport, however, let’s see what those emergent trends are:

1. The three winners to date had three or four previous runs.
2. All had placed last time out AND placed in a Graded race previously
3. All had previously won at Cheltenham
4. All had recorded a Racing Post Topspeed figure of 150+
   

The only horse who fits the bill is The Listener. I’m no sentimentalist, but given that his trainer has been extremely ill in hospital for some time now, I seriously hope this one wins.

Ladbrokes World Hurdle

I’ve already tipped up Blazing Bailey as a formidable each way bet in the race, but that was not based on trends. More, it was predicated on the fact that the horse has a Katchit-sized heart, and is a classy beast to boot (as Ruby Walsh surely will boot him, now that Choc Thornton has – carelessly in my opinion – decided to ride My Way de Solzen).

But let’s look at the trends for the last ten years:

1. 10/10 were aged 6 to 8 years old. We wave a reluctant arrivederci to short priced favourite, Inglis Drever, amongst others.
2. The last eight winners were 1^st or 2^nd on their previous outing.
3. 8/10 had had 2-4 previous outings that season.
4. 8/10 had been 1^st or 2^nd at the track.
5. The last seven winners had recorded a Racing Post Rating of 159+ that season.
6. The last seven winners were 8/1 or shorter.
   

The only horse to satisfy 1-5 above (and also 6) is…. Blazing Bailey! He looks a place banker to me. Had I not singed my digits on Tuesday, I’d be getting stuck in at around 7/4 on betfair. [Actually, 7/4 is way too big, so I’m going to get stuck in again!]

Racing Post Plate

A two and a half mile handicap chase, with lots of runners. Stats say this:

- 9/10 carried 11 stone or less to victory (adieu Don’t Push It and others)
- 9/10 had two or more runs that season (another two exit stage)
- 8/10 were officially rated 128-138 (three more drop out)
- Attheraces website tells me (and I’ve checked) that a French bred (no, not a baguette!) has won or been second in the last eight runnings.
- 8/10 have won at 12/1 or bigger

Fitting the bill, though with limited confidence in this quarter, are Patman du Charmil and the likely too short odds Gwanako.

Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle)

For me, the hardest race of the week to solve, with few strong patterns over the past ten recurrences. But you don’t want to hear that… so here goes nothing:

- All ten were six to nine years old (24 down to 17)
- 9/10 had 3-6 previous starts (lose 3, 14 in)
- 7/10 lugged 10-09 or more (the other 3 had 10-00 – 10-02) [I don’t think this is a very strong stat by the way, but it leaves us with nine]
- 7/10 were 1^st or 2^nd last time out, which leaves just two.
- 8/10 had won over 2m 5f or more, which leaves the same two.

For small interest only, let’s see how Wild Cane Ridge and Backbord fare.

Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Amateur Riders)

Oh boy! If you thought one display of human-equine co-ordination ineptitude was enough for day, we are blessed (cursed?!!) with another pageant of amateurish buffoonery from the farmers’ offspring and military careerists in the Kim Muir (with the usual apologies to any reader who may wear a uniform or drive a tractor).

I really don’t care for these races, and find them somewhat self-indulgent toward the tweed classes. No matter, every convention of clowns has a budding Joseph Grimaldi in its midst, and we may just be able to isolate the chief wig-wearing, plastic flower-water squirting, big shoe-wearing foam pie-chucking winner from this motley lot. (Ok, so the clown gag should have been killed some sentences ago, but I was keen to express my disdain…)

Trends over the last ten runnings as follows:

1. 10/10 were 7-10 years old (scratch five of the 24 starters, including 3 of the top 4 in the betting)
2. 0/10 were Irish trained. Send four home across ‘the puddle’.
3. One winner was first time out; of the other nine, all had either won their sole previous outing that season, or had had four or more runs. Seven fail this stat, leaving us with eight.
4. Aside from the first time out winner, all nine other winners had either won, or been placed two or more times that season. Five still in.
   

Er, that’s it. In a race where you need luck and a white coat man if you have a bet, have 50p on the remaining five:

Ardaghey, Beat The Boys, Ma Yahab, Burntoakboy, and Undeniable.

An honourable mention in despatches at this point for Ferdy Murphy’s Noir Et Vert, who would surely have been ridden by Choc Thornton, were he an amateur (that’s a Black & Green’s gag, for all you chocaholics out there! Incidentally, and a fascinating snippet, Choc himself won this race as an amateur back in 1997 for the late, great David Nicholson, so you do get an occasional stylish jockey emerge from the knitting, washing up and taxi hailing impersonators…)

Weatherby’s Champion Bumper

A traditionally hard race to find the winner in, with so many 1’s in the form lines and more ‘dark horses’ than a Black Beauty audition.

Some patterns that might help though, are:

1. 8/10 have been five years old (24 down to 16 after this stat is applied)
2. 8/10 have been Irish trained (and a further one, Liberman, was bought after winning twice in Ireland). Just seven left on the list.
3. Six of the last eight (and all of the last five) winners have had three or four runs prior to Cheltenham.
   

This leaves us with just three: Corkskeagh Royale, Drive On Regardles, and Pineau De Re. At 11/1, 33/1 and 40/1, why not have a small tickle on all of them?!

No recap here of the trends horses or the Timeform Top Two because, to be honest, I’m tired and my one good typing finger is hurting.

Nap of the Day
3.30 Blazing Bailey to be in the first three

Lay of the Day
2.35 Master Minded (I still just hope he gets back to the stable ok)

Wishing you the fortitude (physical, emotional, and financial) to survive the ten rounds of heavyweight action that is our collective calling tomorrow.

Matt

Day Two Preview: Back Into The Trenches

One down, three to go, dear reader, and personally I can’t help but feel that the best for the trends may already be behind us. But enough of such wanton negativity, and let’s make haste to the (lucky?) seventh race at this year’s Festival.

It’s the Ballymore Properties Novices’ Hurdle, and has been covered elsewhere in the ante-post epistles on this ‘ere blog, so I’ll just remind you that we sided with Aigle D’Or and Forpadydeplasterer (but healthy respect is extended to Breedsbreeze and Trafford Lad).

In truth, given the odds, it should really be a ‘no bet’ race, and the recommendation may be to perm these four in the first leg of your placepot. Hope it does better than my day one ‘lead zeppelin’, which entertained me for all of about five minutes…

Race two tomorrow is the Royal & Sun Alliance Chase, and its going to be the first of a number of slogs in the nasty weather. Again, covered elsewhere, we’ve sided with Silverburn (at 10’s) and also the non-runner Gold Medallist.

The third race is also the third and final race already previewed elsewhere, and the highlight of the second day, the Queen Mother Champion Chase.

I can’t have Master Minded, and just hope he gets home in one piece. I make it between Voy Por Ustedes and Twist Magic, but I can’t rule out Tamarinbleu. Not original, but it’s rarely a race where original thinking is called for.

Now let’s take a look at the remaining three races on the second day:

Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle

The Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle is a Grade 3 contest over two miles and five furlongs. It’s a fiendishly difficult race to solve, with a huge field of 28 going to post.

Some key trends will reduce this somewhat, so let’s see what gives:

1. As with all Cheltenham Festival handicaps, it’s a tough race to concede weight in. No horse has lugged more than 11-03. In a very compact handicap this year, we remove the top dozen runners, including – just – the favourite, Leg Spinner, who carries a pound too much.

2. From the remaining sixteen, consider that the last ten winners were all aged 5-9yo, but furthermore, bear in mind that eight of them were 6-8yo. We’ll eliminate anything not in that midrange. Six more out leaves us with ten.

3. Eight of the last ten winners of this race had between one and four previous runs that season, which removes another trio.

4. Note that the last five winners of the race had already won that season. Two of our remaining seven fail on this score, which leave five.

I couldn’t put you off any of this quintet: Mendo, Clarnazar, Naiad du Misselot, Song Of Songs and Pyleigh Lady. Actually, saying that, Song of Songs has a serious stamina question to answer, but the other four are realistic contenders.

My final note, and the one that gives me my two against the field is that 70% of the winners in the last decade had been 1^st or 2^nd over the (slightly unfashionable) distance.

The two in here who still match that trend are Mendo and Pyleigh Lady. The latter is game, goes on all ground, and could give you something to shout about at a juicy, fat price: what chance an eye-popping ride from Mr I Popham, claiming seven?!

Peter O’Sullevan National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup (Amateur Riders’ Novices’ Chase)

The title says it all. Well nearly. It’s also over a distance of four miles. And 27 fences. Twenty Seven. Fences. Amateur Riders. Four Miles.

It’s just a ridiculous concept for a race, and not really a betting proposition. Last year, Gungadu would have carted up, but for chucking the jockey off after at the penultimate fence. That’s the type of race this is. You need to be fearlessly reckless or recklessly fearless to punt big on it.

Nevertheless, parking my prejudices momentarily, I will share some stats that may (or may not!) persuade you to wager…

Firstly, I will only look at the last six renewals because, in truth, I can’t be arsed to waste my time on more than that!

So, all six winners were aged 7-10, with five of them seven or eight. I’ll side with the latter subset. This narrows twenty started down to eight.

Next, let us eliminate any horse that has not had at least four chase runs (inexperience will see you on your horse’y bum in this contest), as five of the last six winners had relative experience on their side. Another two bite the dust, as they almost certainly will do tomorrow afternoon.

One more point to consider: four of the last six won or were second last time out. It may seem cavalier to use ‘four from six’ as a material statistic, but anyone who wagers in this race is somewhat cavalier in my opinion anyway!

That leaves two. Old Benny and Back On Line. Very small stakes only.

Incidentally, and perhaps a better approach given that four of the last five winners were 25/1, 33/1 (twice) and 40/1, it might be better to suspend the above stats and note that Jonjo O’Neill has a phenomenal record in the race.

He’s saddled four of the last six winners, including 10/1, 25/1 and 33/1 shots. He runs two this time: Pass It On and King Of Angels, both of which are big prices.

Weatherby’s Champion Bumper

A traditionally hard race to find the winner in, with so many 1’s in the form lines and so many whispers for ‘dark horses’.

Some patterns that might help though, are:

1. 8/10 have been five years old (24 down to 16 after this stat is applied)
2. 8/10 have been Irish trained (and a further one, Liberman, was bought after winning twice in Ireland). Just seven left on the list.
3. Six of the last eight (and all of the last five) winners have had three or four runs prior to Cheltenham.
   

This leaves us with just three: Corkskeagh Royale, Drive On Regardles, and Pineau De Re. At 11/1, 33/1 and 40/1, why not have a small tickle on all of them?

*******

By the way, you will have noticed a few more bookie ads on this page. They are here for a couple of reasons:

1. I consider these to be the most innovative layers, in terms of markets and special offers (and free bets for new customers)
2. I get a small ‘kickback’ if you sign up through my link.
   

So, if a horse you fancy is best priced with one of these bookies, you’d be doing us both a favour by signing up and striking the bet.

I hope you consider the content on here of sufficient value to tolerate my adding these ads. If you’re not interested in their offers, please just ignore them.

(Thanks, public service announcement over!)

*******

Trends Choices
2.00 (Advised 5^th March) 1 pt Forpadydeplasterer 11/2 (General)
(5^th Mar) 1 pt win Aigle d’Or (General)

2.35 (26^th Feb) 3 pts win Silverburn 10/1 (Victor Chandler)
(26^th Feb) 1 pt win Gold Medallist 44 (betfair) Non-Runner

3.15 (24^th Feb) 3 pts win Twist Magic 3/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
(24^th Feb) 2 pts Voy Por Ustedes 4/1 (PP, Lads, Hills)

4.00 (11^th March) 1.5 pts e/w Mendo (25/1 general)
(11^th March) 1 pt e/w Pyleigh Lady (50/1 Bluesq)

4.40 (11^th March) 1 pt win Back On Line (11 betfair)
(11^th March) 1 pt win Old Benny (16.5 betfair)
(11^th March) 1 pt win Pass It On (40/1 General)
(11^th March) 1 pt win King Of Angels (66/1 General)

5.20 (11^th March) 1 pt win Corkskeagh Royale (12/1 Skybet, betfair)
(11^th March) 1 pt win Drive On Regardles (33/1 Ladbrokes)
(11^th March) 1 pt win Pineau De Re (110 betfair)

Timeform Top Two
2.00 Breedsbreeze 154p / Aigle d’Or 152p
2.35 Albertas Run 160p / Joe Lively 158
3.15 Tamarinbleu 176 / Master Minded 173p
4.00 Leg Spinner 173+ / Whispered Promises 172
4.40 Ornais 155 / Here’s Johnny 149 / Back On Line 149
5.20 Corkskeagh Royale 138 / Zaarito 137p

‘p’ = potential for improvement; ‘+’ = might be better than quoted figure; ‘$’ = unreliable; ‘?’ = rating is suspect

Nap of the Day
3.15 Aigle d’Or (Henderson horses going very well)

Lay of the Day
2.35 Master Minded (just hope he gets back to the stable ok)

Avanti!

Matt

How Can I Get It So Wrong And Yet So Right?!

Undulating, dear reader, is the nature of the unique test that is Cheltenham racetrack. It is also a perfectly fitting way to describe the zeniths and nadirs of this blogger's day.

Working a half day, and wending my way to the Brown Bear in Leman St, in a less salubrious corner of the City, to join my racing chums, I was enshrouded by a funk. I was feeling pessimistic, bordering on morbid.

I'm not sure why, but it may have had something to do with leaving my unmatched £400 on Sizing Europe overnight, and discovering I'd been matched at my requested 3.55 (just over 5/2), but that the horse was now trading at 3.8. Immaterial now of course, as it always is when I go 'lumpy'.

Anyway, let's get back to the start. A cup of tea and Guinness (its my way to stop getting too drunk too quick) down the track, and it was 2.00 and time for the first of six battles between man and orc (or bookmaker if you prefer).

An insoluble race with squillions of imponderables proved exactly that. Unless, of course, you backed Captain Cee Bee who, as fourth choice in the ring, was far from impossible to find. Naturally, I couldn't find him. Nor could I find the 2nd or 3rd for my placepot - from six selections! - and the early bath ensued.

Incidentally, the trends pointed very strongly towards a 5 or 6yo winner. So, no surprise to see a 7yo beat a 4yo home! Ahem...

Bloodied but unbowed, we moved to the Arkle, a much easier race in which to find the winner, by dint of the smaller number of protagonists and the fact that the Irish couldn't win this race if they started five minutes earlier.

My regular reader knows that I was strong on Tidal Bay and strongly against Noland. Long and short of it was that Tidal Bay was much too good for them, and Noland ran an excellent race in finishing third (surely he wants further?). The 10/1 ante post in the pocket.

Next up was the biggie, my biggie of the week, the Champion Hurdle, and the monster that is Sizing Europe. My lump safely in betfair's escrow account, and happy that at least the price had contracted to 7/4, I settled in nervously to watch the race.

As it panned out, I actually felt vindicated and confident. He oozed class, and strolled up to the hare, Osana. But, in a few shortening strides, he went from heir apparent hero to problem apparent zero. I'm not sure if the form figure will be a '0' for last place, or a 'P' for pulled up, but those layers can count themselves extremely fortunate in my book (Kev, you know you got lucky!!)

Take nothing away from 'feline faeces' (that's Katchit to you), who remains my favourite jumps horse in training, and who has become the first Triumph Hurdle winner for forty years (!) to win the Champion Hurdle the following season, naturally as a 5yo. He is amazing, and his Cheltenham record of five wins and a second (when Osana arguably nicked the race at the start) from six starts is uncrabbable (new word).

As for me, well my staking plan is clearly the worst since Dracula discovered his very bad allergy to wood... (geddit?!)

Onwards and downwards, and my confidence battered, I looked to the William Hill Chase. Having backed Fier Normand, Mattock Ranger and King Harald ante post, only to discover none of the three turned up on the day, I recalled from the trends that An Accordion only blew out on account of being favourite.

Except of course that he wasn't favourite. I only had £26 in my pocket, and I split it win and place on said nag. I also texted two mates and asked them to stick a score on for me. One was home, and obliged. The other was not, and did not.

No matter: the record shows that An Accordion won at 7/1 (I got the 15/2), and I had actually covered my losses from Sizing as well as the eighty I dropped on the opening race.

Rejuvenated by this revelation, we moved onto the fifth race of the day, and the each way steal of the meeting. Most runners in the cross country races are the equivalent of octogenarians hankering after the good old days (with due respect to any octogenarian readers, who may or may not hanker for bygone times), and it is quite easy to whittle the number down to something more manageable.

Moreover, weight is pretty much immaterial as they amble round the assortment of curious impediments that prevent this being four miles of dizzying rail chasing, and charge for the last half mile.

Hats off to Nina Carberry, who is an exceptionally talented jockey, from a family of the same. She won