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Wednesday, 30 January 2008

Grand National 2008 Entries: And The Winner Is....

One of my favourite days of the year, dear reader, is the day the entries come out for the Grand National. Usually, at least...

You see, over the past few years, I have done really rather well in finding the winner of this race. Any of those ignorami (is that the plural of ignoramus?!) who tell you that the GN is a lottery have clearly not bothered to think about what they are vocalising.

To save my aching digits, I'll copy and paste from my very first post on this 'ere blog, way back in February last year (you can see it by clicking the February 2007 Archive button on the left hand side links, or the highlighted one above..!):

To recap, these are the reasons it is a good
stats race:

- No other race has so many horses lining up
- No other race is run over such an extreme distance
- No other race has the Aintree fences (with the exception
of races at the track of course)
- No other race offers such much prize money and kudos
(attracting some very classy horses)
- No other race is guaranteed to be run at a frantic pace
from the outset
- No French race is run over anything like this distance
(French breds don't stay the trip!)

The stats angle for the race says to follow the logic.
This means that we're looking for:

- a proven stayer (won over 3m+);
- a reliable jumper (less than two falls in the last
two seasons), and at least into his third season jumping;
- a horse that has won in a field of at least 12;
- a horse mature enough to win the race, but not past his
best (aged 8-12);
- a horse in the handicap proper, but carrying 11stone or
less (i.e. scheduled to carry 10-00 to 11-00);
- a horse with proven class (placed in a Grade 3 chase or
better);
- a horse who was not bred in France (some have run close,
none have won...);and,
- Pay special attention to the Irish (especially if they've
been hurdling!); and,
- Favour horses who have jumped the Aintree fences

Now then, I said this is usually one of my favourite days of the year. The reason for that is because we have a week between now and the publication of the weights for the race, which happens at a big 'stuffed shirts' nosh up in London next Tuesday (Paul Nicholls will be there, eating all the pies. Apologies, Mr Nicholls, if you're reading..!)

But, this year, there are a few little issuettes... Firstly, there's a record entry of 150 horses.

Secondly, there is a doubt (in my mind at least: does anybody out there know the trainer's intentions??) about whether topweight on official ratings, Turpin Green, is an intended runner in the race.

Thirdly, assuming Dick's Green Turpin doesn't show in Aintree in April, Ollie Magern (I believe, an intended runner) will be topweight.

And fourthly, the Aintree handicap ratings are not the same as the official handicap ratings. Due to the unique nature of the race, a special handicap is produced, which varies slightly from the normal one, acknowledging those who are course specialists.

In fairness, I think the Aintree handicapper does a very good job in giving as many horses as possible a chance: theoretically at least.

So, the imponderables are currently clouding my judgment. But, with more caveats than a dyslexic tie seller (geddit?!), I have managed to sculpt the 150 entries into a quaint little 19-runner entity. But there were a number of horses that I excluded based on the Ollie topweight assumption, and the weight criterion in the above.

If that is wrong, as it may well be, then I will need to rethink the whole darned thing. Booger.

No matter, for what it's worth (and it may not be worth much!), here are the 19 that I reckon would be the initial shortlist:

Horse Trainer Age Official Rating

Ballycassidy P Bowen 12 135
Baron Windrush N A Twiston-Davies 10 137
Bewleys Berry J Howard Johnson 10 144
Bob Bob Bobbin C L Tizzard 9 135
Cornish Sett P F Nicholls 9 140
D´Argent A King 11 142
Dun Doire A J Martin 9 140
Eric´s Charm O Sherwood 10 135
Homer Wells W P Mullins 10 136
Joes Edge Ferdy Murphy 11 137
Mckelvey P Bowen 9 144
Naunton Brook N A Twiston-Davies 9 140
Parsons Legacy P J Hobbs 10 140
Point Barrow P Hughes 10 139
Royal Auclair P F Nicholls 11 140
Rule Supreme W P Mullins 12 145
Sir Rembrandt V R A Dartnall 12 143
Vodka Bleu D E Pipe 9 146

I have to say, that for a number of reasons, I would choose to exclude a subset of these (though I will resist for now). The ones I like, and I think represent the best value, are:

D'Argent (doughty stayer from the King's stable)
Joes Edge (has won a Scottish National and a big Cheltenham handicap)
McKelvey (2nd last year, and weighted for another big run)
Naunton Brook (I had a sneaking fancy for this last year. The year before I fancied Silver Birch, who won last year. If that logic makes any sense to you, you'll know what I mean!)
Point Barrow (Irish National winner, sent off favourite last year, 25/1 is surely too big!)

So, those constitute my quintessential quintet which, this time next week, may well be totally different..!

I'll do another post on Tuesday, after the weights are out, and by which time I can hopefully be more categorical (at least a little more at any rate!).

By the way, I haven't backed any of these because I've just done my brains on Man City for the second time in four days. How can those overpaid tossers not turn over Sheffield or Derby?!!! (with the usual apologies to fans of those two sides...)

I'm away to lick my wounds and consider retiring hurt from football wagering for the rest of the season, or the rest of the week at least.

Bon soiree!
Matt

 

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Monday, 28 January 2008

Football Miracle? Save Your Money!

I forgot to mention, dear reader, that I purchased the Football Miracle system with the intention of reviewing it on here.

I won't waste yours or my time. 23 pages long, 21 pages of 'this is how you use betfair' padding, a two page system that I think I mentioned on here previously:

back 0-0 correct score, and lay the draw. when a goal is scored, trade out of the draw position.

Brilliant, and well worth £40 of anyone's money. NOT.

Toodlepip!
Matt

 

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TTS Bank Error In Your Favour: Collect £130

I blame the perilously early onset of dimentia, dear reader, for my customary quarterly cockup when sending out the TrainerTrackStats runners.

Except yesterday was bizarre in the extreme. I correctly included Hesivorthedriver (who, as a 100/1 rag, did not qualify) and Kickahead (well held in sixth at 8/1).

But I missed out McEvoy for some reason, who proceeded to bolt up at 11/2. So an 11/2 winner from two qualifiers is not at all bad.

However, if you received my daily email yesterday, you will have noticed that there was no reference to the aforementioned 11/2 winner. Instead, and I have no idea why, I included the 12/1 winner Climate Change!

Which means that if you follow my emails, you'd have been the beneficiary of a net gain of 6.5 points. £130 for £20's, even without the exchange machine!

So... erm, sorry, if that's the right word, for the mistake, and I'll endeavour to ensure its at least another three months before I err again...!

TTS is making few mistakes, and continues in fine heart. If only the same could be said for its addled author...

ttfn
Matt

 

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Sunday, 27 January 2008

Sunday Admin And The Winner Of The Champion Hurdle

Quick post, dear reader, to tidy up some admin.

Firstly, my subscribers who are using @blueyonder email addresses, there appears to be a problem with the blueyonder mail servers, as my emails are being returned only for these addresses.

I believe the company has been taken over by Virgin Media, and suspect this may be something to do with it, but I could be totally wrong there...

Secondly, I am certain I saw the winner of the Champion Hurdle today. In a very high class field in Ireland, including a lot of reliable yardsticks, Sizing Europe cantered all over them and won pulling up.

The way he traveled in the race, which looked truly run, with Hardy Eustace and Al Eile going at it for the first three quarters of the race, was hard to quibble with. Sizing was always lobbing in behind them, and Andrew McNamara (who?!) only had to squeeze his mount to ghost clear.

Indeed, having just checked the time, just 1.3 seconds below standard on yielding ground, and comparatively against the other races on the card, this was a standout. Furthermore, the Topspeed figure of 168 is the highest of any entry in the Champion Hurdle this year. Which means, in layman's terms, if he runs to this level again, anything with pretensions of beating him, needs to set a personal best on the day.

Make no mistake, this was a very taking performance, and as the horse is only six, he is still on the upgrade. He won at Cheltenham in November, beating Osana (albeit getting six pounds from that horse), and I reckon he will win again there in March.

It's not normally a good idea taking short prices ante-post, and you may be better served to wait until the day, but anything above 3/1 looks good value, and I've added to my Day One portfolio with a solid six point wager on Sizing Europe at Ladbrokes' best price of 'carpet' (3/1 in old money).

I wouldn't expect that to last too much longer.

Turning briefly to the Stayers' Hurdle, and the picture looks pretty clear to me here too, with Inglis Drever by far the most likely winner.

However, I'll take a chance on tough as teak young blade, Blazing Bailey, who looks a cracking each way click at 9/1 generally.

There are only four serious contenders (Wichita Lineman and My Way de Solzen being the other two legs on the table), and one of them, My Way, may run in the Champion Chase, as he is the reigning 2 mile novice champion chaser. 9/4 to be in the first three for Blazing looks more than fair.

2 points win and place there then, although if ID turns up firing, I'll be happy enough with my place return: the Drever is a worthy favourite and defending champ.

Portfolio to date

Champion Hurdle
28th Jan 6pts win Sizing Europe 3/1 (Ladbrokes)
1st Nov 1pt win Detroit City 26 (betfair)
1st Nov 1pt win Straw Bear 36 (betfair)

Gold Cup
24th Jan 1pt win Mossbank 75 (betfair)
24th Jan 1pt win Halcon Genelardais 110 (betfair)

24th Jan 0.5pt e/w Mossbank 50/1 (Sportingbet)
24th Jan 0.5pt e/w Halcon Genelardais 50/1 (General)

World Hurdle (aka Stayers Hurdle)
28th January 2pts e/w Blazing Bailey 9/1 (general)

Keep those wagons rolling...

Matt

 

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Thursday, 24 January 2008

Moving The Cheltenham Ante-Post Portfolio Up A Notch...

Forty-seven days to go, dear reader, until the joy of the annual equine jumping jamboree is upon us once more.

Yes, just six weeks and five days until tapes up on the Supreme Novices' Hurdle.

Today, a quick squint at the Champion Hurdle and the Gold Cup, if you will...

I've already flagged up a couple on here at monster monster prices for the Champion Hurdle. If you followed the advice, you'll have torn up your Detroit City (RIP) ticket, but will have found a safe place behind the clock on the mantlepiece for Straw Bear (36 on betfair at that time, now just 17.5, and best priced 14/1 with the traditional bookies).

I still can't have Sublimity, who is a sulker, Harchibald is lay in running material (cruises, finds nada), and then there are a bunch of new kids on the block. Osana won well as a novice the same day Straw Bear won the Kingwell at Wincanton last February. But he will have had to improve a helluva lot to take it to the Bear. That said, he may have made that improvement!

AP will be looking forward to StrawB from his hospital bed, and I reckon he might announce his return for his guv'nor with this chap. Caveat, as previously mentioned, is that Straw Bear has burst blood vessels in the past, including in the race last year. 14's is still a fair price I reckon. He's in to run next weekend at Cheltenham.

Moving on to the Gold Cup, and for many people its a match between stablemates Kauto Star, the champ, and Denman, the contender. Exotic Dancer is priced in most books as the most likely bronze medallist.

But how often do races actually turn out that way? Let's think for a second about the way the race will pan out: Denman, the slugger, will try to grind victory out from the front by browbeating his opposition into timid submission.

Kauto, all class, the Muhammed Ali to Denman's Joe Frazier, will float like a butterfly prior to stinging like a bee. Or will he? Kauto tends to, excuse me, twat a fence from time to time. And, with a ferocious pace nigh on guaranteed, he could find the examination has one or two trick questions that may just catch him out.

(Sincere apologies for the ugly mixed metaphors in the above).

So, I'm predicting one of the two will win the race - shock, horror! However, I am also predicting that the one that doesn't win, will not place either. Either Denman will run himself ragged and not get home, or Kauto will stumble and tumble.

Which leaves us with two places to play with and not that many horses to consider. The stats say that nine from the last ten Gold Cup winners were aged 7, 8 or 9. Forget 10yo Kicking King then, despite his run today, which proved little more than he still has a leg in each corner and a touch of class.

I'm also excluding Exotic Dancer, on the basis that the horse has had a setback, and will miss his intended engagement next weekend. As I've mentioned here before, in Championship races, do not back horses who have had setbacks. Very rarely can they overcome them, and still be good enough to kick turf in their peers' noggins.

My shekels have landed on a couple of dark ones who, in fairness, may well not even run in the race. But, for small beer, I reckon they're worth a tickle each way or place only.

They are Halcon Genelardais and Mossbank. Halcon is trained by the best jumps trainer in the country, Alan King, and King's Cheltenham record stands the closest examination.

No horse with a Racing Post Rating lower than 163 has won the race, and 8 out of 10 had a previous RPR of at least 170. HG weighs in at 171, after his impressive - if excruciating - head defeat in the Welsh National, where he lugged 11-10.

Mossbank has a very progressive profile. Having been tonked in the Sun Alliance Chase last season, where he was never put in the race, this season he won his first two starts (a £50,000 to the winner handicap chase, and a Grade 2 where he bolted up from some reliable old sticks).

Last time out, he took on Denman in the Lexus Chase, and only gave best by four lengths. He travelled impeccably that day, giving me hope that a) he will stay, and b) his trainer will also feel that way and run him in the Gold Cup.

Halcon is currently trading at 110 on the exchange, while Mossbank is available at 75.

At those prices, throwaway wagers may give you something luvly jubbly to shout about come middle March.

Portfolio to date

Champion Hurdle
1pt win Detroit City 26 (betfair)
1pt win Straw Bear 36 (betfair)

Gold Cup
1pt win Mossbank 75 (betfair)
1pt win Halcon Genelardais 110 (betfair)

0.5pt e/w Mossbank 50/1 (Sportingbet)
0.5pt e/w Halcon Genelardais 50/1 (General)

More in the coming weeks...

Matt

 

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Wednesday, 23 January 2008

System Ultra Comes Out In Front... But...

Thank you for your patience, dear reader, for which I hope I can offer some recompense in the form of the end of week review of System Ultra.

My regular viewer will know that I have been following this system since last Wednesday, and have endeavoured to flag up potential selections in advance. This has presented one or two anomalies, as we'll get to in due course.

First, a summary of the system: something of a novelty these days, System Ultra encourages you to back horses as opposed to the current system fashion of laying the blighters.

Not just any horse, though. To qualify, a nag must start favourite, and herein lies a problem for those of you who can't track the pre-race market. Especially at this time of year, when there is a lot of volatility in the betting (mainly due to lack of liquidity on course), horses that look solid favourites end up going off less fancied than other runners.

So caution is advised. Of course, in many instances there are standout jollies which you can be pretty certain will still be favoured come post time.

Certain courses are discounted (due to historically poor records), and system followers only play in certain types of race. There are the usual (and, I think, reasonable) price and age criteria, as well as a couple of simple stipulations around jumping ability in one race type.

If this makes things sound complicated, I can tell you that after a week of tracking System Ultra, my only reference back to the system now is to check whether the course is a qualifier. (And I already know that all of the sand tracks, bar Kempton, are in.)

So how did things go?

Well, during the eight days of the trial, there were no fewer than 54 selections, of which 17 won (31.48%). A rather frustrating 13 (24.07%) finished in the silver medal position, meaning that well over half of runners in the trial were in the first two. 64.81% (just about two thirds) were in the first three.

Profit, for System Ultra did finish in the black, was £86 to £20 stakes, with my usual betfair rules applying (14% over SP, less 5% deduction on winners).

I do have a slight reservation about a touch of retro-fitting regarding course selection, and it has also been suggested to me that this system has been generated from Adrian Massey's excellent systemite site (sounds plausible enough). If you don't know of it, check it out at:

http://www.adrianmassey.com


I've posted the full results sheet here, to save space on the blog.

Overall, the system has performed with credit and has made money, so it's unfair to be too harsh. Historical records obviously show that you'd have made money following this strategy last year too.

If you like your action thick and fast, then this may satisfy both of those requirements, and it could be lucrative enough. The niggle about retro fitting puts me off only slightly.

Nevertheless, I'll give System Ultra 6.5/10 and recommend it as worth a try (mindful that you can get a refund if you're not happy).

You can acquire it, should you wish to, through this link: System Ultra

Elsewhere, and it was a busy day for TTS followers. After days with little or no jumping action, there were bumper fields at Musselburgh and Huntingdon.

One of the more obscure trainers on the TTS roster, Mr S Donohoe, who actually trains in Ireland, is a man for us at Musselburgh, and so it proved, as his one qualifier, the topically named The Joker (RIP Heath Ledger by the way), was backed from 16/1 into 10/1 and fairly bolted up by 16 lengths from Johnny Roche (7/2, and the other TTS runner in the race).

11/2 winner Sherwoods Folly popped some Huntingdon jam on top of the Musselburgh cream, as it was high teas all round today.

Full TTS results can be found here, in case you haven't seen it.

It's my aim to try to preview some of the Cheltenham races before the end of the week, so stay tuned for what could be another profitable post soon.

Toodlepip!
Matt

 

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Time Waits For No Matt...

Short post, dear reader, to apologise for not getting the System Ultra update here.

Personal reasons, I'm afraid. Bear with me, and I'll catch up later.

Management summary however, is that winners at 4/1 and 11/4 put the system a bit more in front.

Until later...

Matt

 

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Monday, 21 January 2008

Just Another Manic Monday?

The Bangles, dear reader, for it was they, along with The Rats (of Boomtown, a recent winner, fame), who found Mondays manic and unlikeable respectively.

System Ultra aficionados may feel likewise after a washout that didn't quite mirror that on the stock markets, but was not a quantum leap behind. Ok, so in reality it was a quantum leap behind, but forgive me a little dramatic license...

Results all went against the system today, to place a fat dent in the otherwise impressive results sequence. Still in front, but not by much:

Date Course Horse Position SP P/L Cum P/L Betfair P/L Cum PL
16/01/2008 Lingfield Boomtown 2 1.5 -£20 -£20 -£20 -£20
16/01/2008 Lingfield Baylini 4 0.91 -£20 -£40 -£20 -£40
16/01/2008 Lingfield Longoria 1 0.72 £14 -£26 £16 -£24
16/01/2008 Lingfield Sands Crooner 1 2.5 £50 £24 £56 £32
17/01/2008 Southwell Realt Na Mara 2 1.75 -£20 £4 -£20 £12
17/01/2008 Southwell Diriculous 5 1.5 -£20 -£16 -£20 -£8
17/01/2008 Southwell Abbeygate 2 2.75 -£20 -£36 -£20 -£28
17/01/2008 Wolverhampton Coleorton Dancer 6 2.12 -£20 -£56 -£20 -£48
17/01/2008 Wolverhampton Hawa Khana 2 1.25 -£20 -£76 -£20 -£68
17/01/2008 Wolverhampton Alonso De Guzman 1 2 £40 -£36 £45 -£24
17/01/2008 Wolverhampton Blue Hills 2 2.75 -£20 -£56 -£20 -£44
17/01/2008 Wolverhampton Valhillen 1 3 £60 £4 £67 £23
18/01/2008 Wolverhampton Mafaheem 1 1.38 £28 £32 £31 £54
18/01/2008 Wolverhampton Carlton Scroop 4 1.63 -£20 £12 -£20 £34
18/01/2008 Wolverhampton Alfresco 5 2.5 -£20 -£8 -£20 £14
18/01/2008 Wolverhampton Buscador 2 0.91 -£20 -£28 -£20 -£6
18/01/2008 Wolverhampton Morbick 1 1.25 £25 -£3 £28 £22
18/01/2008 Catterick Media Man 2 1.75 -£20 -£23 -£20 £2
19/01/2008 Lingfield Atephobia 1 1.38 £28 £5 £31 £32
19/01/2008 Lingfield Highest Esteem 4 2 -£20 -£15 -£20 £12
19/01/2008 Lingfield Boomtown 1 1.1 £22 £7 £24 £37
19/01/2008 Lingfield Bonus 3 1.5 -£20 -£13 -£20 £17
19/01/2008 Lingfield Fajr 1 2.5 £50 £37 £56 £73
19/01/2008 Lingfield Caprio 3 2 -£20 £17 -£20 £53
19/01/2008 Wolverhampton Gifted Heir 1 3 £60 £77 £67 £119
19/01/2008 Wolverhampton By The Edge 2 2.75 -£20 £57 -£20 £99
19/01/2008 Wolverhampton Buscador 1 1.88 £38 £94 £42 £141
19/01/2008 Wolverhampton Silver Hotspur 3 2 -£20 £74 -£20 £121
19/01/2008 Wolverhampton Mr Lambros 1 2.5 £50 £124 £56 £177
19/01/2008 Wolverhampton Western Roots 7 2.5 -£20 £104 -£20 £157
20/01/2008 Wolverhampton Royal Embrace 9 4 -£20 £84 -£20 £137
20/01/2008 Wolverhampton Fulford 1 2.25 £45 £129 £50 £187
20/01/2008 Wolverhampton Bold Diva 2 2.25 -£20 £109 -£20 £167
20/01/2008 Wolverhampton Alfie Tupper 2 1.75 -£20 £89 -£20 £147
20/01/2008 Wolverhampton Methaaly 5 2.25 -£20 £69 -£20 £127
21/01/2008 Wolverhampton Northern Desert 7 2 -£20 £49 -£20 £107
21/01/2008 Wolverhampton Bobering 5 3 -£20 £29 -£20 £87
21/01/2008 Wolverhampton Given A Choice 2 0.73 -£20 £9 -£20 £67
21/01/2008 Wolverhampton Lost All Alone 7 3 -£20 -£11 -£20 £47
21/01/2008 Folkestone Killard Point 4 2.75 -£20 -£31 -£20 £27

Tomorrow and Wednesday will conclude the week's trial, and then I'll place a short review of my thoughts.

Tuesday's potential selections look akin to this:

Southwell
1.00 Favourite
1.30 What's For Tea
2.00 Favourite
2.30 Bonnie Prince Blue
3.00 Noble Plum
4.00 Sunshine Lady

Let's see what Tuesday brings... (more rain, I'm guessing!)

Matt

 

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Sunday, 20 January 2008

System Ultra Doing Really Rather Well...

Sunday morning, dear reader, and yet again I am troubled with insomnia. Having spent several hours not being able to sleep I figured I may as well get up and check the System Ultra results.

Pretty much expecting the system to have descended into the red, from where I expected it to head in a downwards direction, I was most surprised to note that it had in fact performed with considerable credit.

The full trial results to date are:

Date Course Horse Position SP P/L Cum P/L Betfair P/L Cum PL
16/01/2008 Lingfield Boomtown 2 1.5 -£20 -£20 -£20 -£20
16/01/2008 Lingfield Baylini 4 0.91 -£20 -£40 -£20 -£40
16/01/2008 Lingfield Longoria 1 0.72 £14 -£26 £16 -£24
16/01/2008 Lingfield Sands Crooner 1 2.5 £50 £24 £56 £32
17/01/2008 Southwell Realt Na Mara 2 1.75 -£20 £4 -£20 £12
17/01/2008 Southwell Diriculous 5 1.5 -£20 -£16 -£20 -£8
17/01/2008 Southwell Abbeygate 2 2.75 -£20 -£36 -£20 -£28
17/01/2008 Wolverhampton Coleorton Dancer 6 2.12 -£20 -£56 -£20 -£48
17/01/2008 Wolverhampton Hawa Khana 2 1.25 -£20 -£76 -£20 -£68
17/01/2008 Wolverhampton Alonso De Guzman 1 2 £40 -£36 £45 -£24
17/01/2008 Wolverhampton Blue Hills 2 2.75 -£20 -£56 -£20 -£44
17/01/2008 Wolverhampton Valhillen 1 3 £60 £4 £67 £23
18/01/2008 Wolverhampton Mafaheem 1 1.38 £28 £32 £31 £54
18/01/2008 Wolverhampton Carlton Scroop 4 1.63 -£20 £12 -£20 £34
18/01/2008 Wolverhampton Alfresco 5 2.5 -£20 -£8 -£20 £14
18/01/2008 Wolverhampton Buscador 2 0.91 -£20 -£28 -£20 -£6
18/01/2008 Wolverhampton Morbick 1 1.25 £25 -£3 £28 £22
18/01/2008 Catterick Media Man 2 1.75 -£20 -£23 -£20 £2
19/01/2008 Lingfield Atephobia 1 1.38 £28 £5 £31 £32
19/01/2008 Lingfield Highest Esteem 4 2 -£20 -£15 -£20 £12
19/01/2008 Lingfield Boomtown 1 1.1 £22 £7 £24 £37
19/01/2008 Lingfield Bonus 3 1.5 -£20 -£13 -£20 £17
19/01/2008 Lingfield Fajr 1 2.5 £50 £37 £56 £73
19/01/2008 Lingfield Caprio 3 2 -£20 £17 -£20 £53
19/01/2008 Wolverhampton Gifted Heir 1 3 £60 £77 £67 £119
19/01/2008 Wolverhampton By The Edge 2 2.75 -£20 £57 -£20 £99
19/01/2008 Wolverhampton Buscador 1 1.88 £38 £94 £42 £141
19/01/2008 Wolverhampton Silver Hotspur 3 2 -£20 £74 -£20 £121
19/01/2008 Wolverhampton Mr Lambros 1 2.5 £50 £124 £56 £177
19/01/2008 Wolverhampton Western Roots 7 2.5 -£20 £104 -£20 £157

The win and place percentages are very impressive and, dare I say it, unsustainable.

Horses are currently winning at 40% and in the first three an incredible 77% of the time!

Pos Freq Runs %age Cum %
1st 12 30 40.00% 40.00%
2nd 8 30 26.67% 66.67%
3rd 3 30 10.00% 76.67%
4th 3 30 10.00% 86.67%
5th 2 30 6.67% 93.33%
6th 1 30 3.33% 96.67%
7th 1 30 3.33% 100.00%










Likely qualifiers today at Wolverhampton are:

1.50 Alto Vertigo
2.50 Bold Diva
4.20 Glenridding
4.50 Favourite

£157 up to £20 stakes at betfair odds is £785 up if you're lucky enough to be able to afford £100 units.

Either way, for your respective pocket, I'm impressed so far with this system, despite my initial cynicism.

The usual clickbank money back guarantee applies, so you can trial this yourself without fear of losing your cash if you're not happy / don't like it. I'm beginning to think that it's well worth a go...

System Ultra page here...

Finally, a quick word for the slings and arrows of outrageous TTS fortune. Yesterday was a good day, with Binocular winning at 6/4 and Earth Crystal coming in at a whopping 9/1 (the only other qualifier being Gaspara, who was 3rd at 7/2).

Spare a thought though for this annoying fact: David Pipe's 3-7 year olds are backable for TTS players at Ascot.

Given that we are now in January, when all horses have their birthdays, the 8 year olds Tamarinbleu and Lough Derg thus no longer qualify for TTS punters. Both won, at odds of 12/1 and 6/1 no less, and both would have been on TTS betting slips last month. :(

On the bright side, TTS remains nicely in the black, showing just over 31 points profit for win, and 53 points profit for place wagers, both on betfair. That amounts to £1,694 for £20 stakes. Which is nice...

January is £73 up for the place and £303 up for the win, making £376 profit for the month to £20 stakes. Again, which is nice...

Lazy Sunday to you.

Matt

 

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Friday, 18 January 2008

Day Three of System Ultra, and Some Friday Fun With A Squirrel...

And so it goes on, dear reader. The rain that is. I haven't seen Noah but I'm reasonably confident he's busy building an ark somewhere on Hackney Marshes...

Nevertheless, I hope the deluge didn't stop you from backing yesterday's whisper, Katapult, who duly sluiced up first time out at a tidy enough 11/4.

To business, and day three of the System Ultra trial was another frustrating day, with the silver medal becoming an all too frequent accolade for qualifiers.

Before I publish the updated tale of the tape, I've had a number of people write to me asking why the horses I print here in the results differ from the ones I selected up front. The answer is simple: a horse must be a favourite to qualify, so some I've picked out have not gone off as market leader.

Furthermore, not all favourites in qualifying races are qualifiers (they must also satisfy other criteria). So... I have sometimes picked the wrong horse up front. Sorry about that.

Results to date look a bit like this:

Date Course Horse Position SP P/L Cum P/L Betfair P/L Cum PL
16/01/2008 Lingfield Boomtown 2 1.5 -£20 -£20 -£20 -£20
16/01/2008 Lingfield Baylini 4 0.91 -£20 -£40 -£20 -£40
16/01/2008 Lingfield Longoria 1 0.72 £14 -£26 £16 -£24
16/01/2008 Lingfield Sands Crooner 1 2.5 £50 £24 £56 £32
17/01/2008 Southwell Realt Na Mara 2 1.75 -£20 £4 -£20 £12
17/01/2008 Southwell Diriculous 5 1.5 -£20 -£16 -£20 -£8
17/01/2008 Southwell Abbeygate 2 2.75 -£20 -£36 -£20 -£28
17/01/2008 Wolverhampton Coleorton Dancer 6 2.12 -£20 -£56 -£20 -£48
17/01/2008 Wolverhampton Hawa Khana 2 1.25 -£20 -£76 -£20 -£68
17/01/2008 Wolverhampton Alonso De Guzman 1 2 £40 -£36 £45 -£24
17/01/2008 Wolverhampton Blue Hills 2 2.75 -£20 -£56 -£20 -£44
17/01/2008 Wolverhampton Valhillen 1 3 £60 £4 £67 £23
18/01/2008 Wolverhampton Mafaheem 1 1.38 £28 £32 £31 £54
18/01/2008 Wolverhampton Carlton Scroop 4 1.63 -£20 £12 -£20 £34
18/01/2008 Wolverhampton Alfresco 5 2.5 -£20 -£8 -£20 £14
18/01/2008 Wolverhampton Buscador 2 0.91 -£20 -£28 -£20 -£6
18/01/2008 Wolverhampton Morbick 1 1.25 £25 -£3 £28 £22
18/01/2008 Wolverhampton Media Man 2 1.75 -£20 -£23 -£20 £2

[I say 'a bit like this' with due deference to my pedantic reader who pointed out that I was a quid out with one of my sums! I salute you sir, for my fears of pedantry becoming a dying art appears unfounded! :o) ]

Tomorrow's possible selections are these:

Lingfield
12.45 Favourite
1.55 Favourite
2.25 Boomtown
3.00 Ebraam
4.10 Favourite

Wolverhampton
6.50 Davidia
7.20 By The Edge
8.20 Silver Hotspur
8.50 Mr Lambros
9.20 Favourite

Now for some fun on Friday - thanks to Gordon for bringing this to my attention..!


Bon weekend from Hackney

Matt

 

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Thursday, 17 January 2008

Day Two System Ultra Update, and Day Three

Day Two, and a late finish, dear reader.

Last qualifier was in the 9.20 at Wolver, and was a winner. However, that was virtually the only bright spot on an otherwise frustrating day's sport.

Second is good in most things, but in the binary world of gambling it might as well be 22nd.

Alas, the runner up spot was the lot for a number of qualifiers today.

Full rundown of first two days below: the system remains in front, but only just.

Date Course Horse Position SP P/L Cum P/L Betfair P/L Cum PL
16/01/2008 Lingfield Boomtown 2 1.5 -£20 -£20 -£20 -£20
16/01/2008 Lingfield Baylini 4 0.91 -£20 -£40 -£20 -£40
16/01/2008 Lingfield Longoria 1 0.72 £14 -£26 £16 -£24
16/01/2008 Lingfield Sands Crooner 1 2.5 £50 £24 £56 £32
17/01/2008 Southwell Realt Na Mara 2 1.75 -£20 £4 -£20 £12
17/01/2008 Southwell Diriculous 5 1.5 -£20 -£16 -£20 -£8
17/01/2008 Southwell Abbeygate 2 2.75 -£20 -£36 -£20 -£28
17/01/2008 Wolverhampton Coleorton Dancer 6 2.12 -£20 -£56 -£20 -£48
17/01/2008 Wolverhampton Hawa Khana 2 1.25 -£20 -£76 -£20 -£68
17/01/2008 Wolverhampton Alonso De Guzman 1 2 £40 -£36 £45 -£24
17/01/2008 Wolverhampton Blue Hills 2 2.75 -£20 -£56 -£20 -£44
17/01/2008 Wolverhampton Valhillen 1 3 £60 £4 £67 £23

As with all systems, it's still early days after just a dozen selections, so we'll continue to roll with this one until Sunday at least.

System Ultra page here...

Tomorrow's likely lads and lasses are thus:

Catterick
3.20 Media Man

Wolverhampton
1.20 Favourite
4.05 Alfresco
4.35 Buscador
5.05 Morbick

Incidentally, my agent tells me a horse in which he has an interest is ready enough first time out tomorrow: Katapult to bolt up at Kata-rick?

We shall see. I'll be having a small wager...

A demain...

Matt

 

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Wednesday, 16 January 2008

System Ultra Day 1 Results, Good So Far..

Cynical, dear reader. I was born that way, and I will likely die the same.

So forgive me if I expected to be poo-pooing (GVA Ireland finished 8th on Sunday by the way) this system by the end of day one but, alas, my barbs will have to wait for another day...

After day one, there were four runners, two of which won:

Horse Position SP P/L Cum P/L Betfair P/L Cum PL
Boomtown 2 1.5 -£20 -£20 -£20 -£20
Baylini 4 0.91 -£20 -£40 -£20 -£40
Longoria 1 0.72 £14 -£26 £16 -£24
Sands Crooner 1 2.5 £50 £24 £56 £32

Note that I quoted the favourite in the first race as likely qualifier, but the one horse in the race not to qualify was sent off jolly, and won!

I also mentioned Nawamees, but he is too old - just as well.

And finally, I thought old boy non-qualifier Smokin Beau would go off fav in the last, but he didn't. Sands Crooner did, and won at 5/2.

So the first day ends with £32 profit to Betfair odds.

Tomorrow's likely qualifiers (bear in mind how far wide of the mark I was today, if you're thinking of backing them: don't!) are along these lines:

Southwell
1.30 Alfie Tupper
2.30 Realt Na Mara
3.00 Diriculous
4.00 Abbeygate

Wolverhampton
6.50 Coleorton Dancer
7.50 Given A Choice
8.50 Blue Hills
9.20 A Wish For You

More on this tomorrow. Or check the blurb here... http://tinyurl.com/2rrhbf

Just a couple of quick lines on football... firstly, it seems churlish to urinate on Geordie french fries (that's p155 on their chips, if you prefer) when the Maggies are winning 4-0, and have just announced the return of the curly-haired one (remember that perm at Hamburger SV?!!).



Won't see the season out. You heard it here first. (Apologies, and I hope I'm wrong).

Secondly, Fantasy League manager of the month for December (somewhat belatedly), was none other than...

yours truly! December scores on the doors below:

# Team Manager Gameweek Total
1 Nag Nag Goooooal Matt Bisogno 64 382
2 Dind Dang Doo malik aldeiri 47 370
3 Frazek HotSpurs Steven Frazer 58 367
4 SmokinTree&Strokin3s Irvin Lim 60 348
5 Rafalution Pete Yogi 64 323

Overall, it looks like this:

# Team Manager Gameweek Total
1 Frazek HotSpurs Steven Frazer 96 1319
2 Nag Nag Goooooal Matt Bisogno 96 1206
3 Dind Dang Doo malik aldeiri 85 1181
4 Baddow Cougars Mark Boorman 63 1137
5 Tottering Legends Gary Maxen 64 1131
6 Kicking Kings Paddy Meagher 58 1129
7 SmokinTree&Strokin3s Irvin Lim 74 1129
8 Rafalution Pete Yogi 68 1121
9 Cupid's Skirts Stephen Miller 69 1115
10 Darren Smith Darren Smith 61 1080

Incidentally, leader of the pack, Steve Frazer, is 427th in the game. Out of 1,598,899 !!

Pretty impressive, I'd say... (but don't tell him I said that, he's my mate from round the corner... and our football team's famous non-scoring striker... ten games, no goals... oh dear, Mr Frazer!)

A domani!

Matt

 

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Tuesday, 15 January 2008

System Ultra? Hmm, We'll See About That...

Systems, dear reader, they're my lifeblood. Along with stats, these are the cornerstones of my betting approach, and as often as I can, I like to trial them here on the blog.

Mindful that I've been a little remiss in this recently, I thought I'd take a look at a system about which you've almost certainly seen emails in your box: System Ultra.

A rarity these days, it seems, System Ultra is a backing system (i.e. you bet selections to win). And it's a good old fashioned backing system at that, with nine steps to potential punting heaven.

The system can be applied to many flat and a few jumps races, and concentrates on favourites.

The other criteria are easy enough to follow, and the (claimed) results from last season are impressive - see here (note, this is a big file and might take a while for the page to load!).

I will monitor progress over the next few days, perhaps up to a week, and we will see for ourselves - in real time - just how System Ultra fares...

To get the ball rolling, here are tomorrow's potential selections. I say 'potential', because there are a couple of things to check nearer the time, but - by and large - you can work out the contenders in advance.

So... eyes down, and look in, for what may be a System Ultra 'full house':

Lingfield
12.40 Favourite
1.10 Nawamees
2.20 Boomotown
2.50 Baylini
3.25 Longoria

I'll confirm that these did qualify tomorrow, and let you have a results update, and - of course - will update with Thursday's potential qualifiers.

If you want to know more about the System Ultra system, albeit from the usual salacious sales pitch, you can by clicking here.

Until tomorrow...

Matt

 

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Friday, 11 January 2008

Friday Fun: Pulp Muppets!

Friday, dear reader, and not just any Friday.

Is it me, or does the first full week after Christmas feel like at least a fortnight long without a break?!

As its Friday, there is Friday Fun to alleviate the office tedium (assuming you a) work in an office, and b) find it tedious).

Pulp Fiction is a great movie, The Muppet Show was different class TV.

This hybrid could make the grade:
http://www.sumo.tv/video/3236552

Have a great weekend, and be careful with the horses. The weather is wet and there will be more than a few shocks on what is, let's be honest, a pretty shabby weekend's fare anyway.

In fact, the only horse worth an interest may be G V A Ireland at Leopardstown on Sunday, for no better reason than he has the form figures P00-P00...!

Ching ching!

Matt

 

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Monday, 7 January 2008

Saucy Seasonal Post

Our perpetual a-salt on the bookies, dear reader, has seen us pepper the podium over the last few days, but we’ve not been able to find a winner tabasco’ver.

We’ve had a few that came late but couldn’t ketchup; a few that caught a tartare; and a few that were too keen (keen as mustard, you might say).

All of which has left us thoroughly brown’ed off. Why, we couldn’t piccalilli let alone a winner.

More second’s today, at 12/1 twice no less. But if you bet win only, that encona pay the bills!

Mercifully, the Hypnotic Vibe rode to the rescue today at a tasty 8/1 and, whilst not entirely mint'ed, I am definitely feeling more HP.

I appreciate you mayo may not have enjoyed this short post, but please accept it with my condiments!

Matt

p.s. The one I couldn’t shoehorn in, for love nor money, was…. HORSEradish!

 

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Friday, 4 January 2008

Friday Fun: For Those Who Have Returned To Work This Week...

A quick burst of reality, dear reader, because not every day in the office is a day in Paradise...




Have a great weekend, and if you want to get the discounted TrainerTrackStats, do it pronto, as the clock has very nearly ticked its last tock...

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/midseason.html

Ciao ciao.

Matt

 

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Thursday, 3 January 2008

Gentle Reminder: One Day Left For TTS Sale Price

Just a quick nudge, dear reader, to remind you that if you intended to get a discounted copy of TrainerTrackStats, you've got until midnight tomorrow, Friday, 4th January, to secure it.


No more bluster from me for now, but I'll be back with something less sales-y very soon.

I'll be in Bournemouth visiting relatives until next week now, so will not post anything further this week.

Best Regards, and Good Weekend to you,

Matt

 

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Tuesday, 1 January 2008

2008: New Year, Similar Story

Happy New Year, dear reader, especially so to TrainerTrackStats followers, who are in further clover today, thanks to Flake and Blazing Bailey.

Those two horses have served up nice 4/1 and 11/2 (from 7/1) winners to TTS punters today.

If you've already taken advantage of my special 'mid-season sale' offer, well done: you'll be on good terms with yourselves.

If not, then you can pick up a copy at the discounted price of just £27. Those who did this today have already recouped three times their outlay (win and place to £20). :0)

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/midseason.html

There's also a free trial available, should you be of a more cautious disposition and - of course - I offer a full money back guarantee: if you're not happy, let me know, and I'll refund you. Simple as that.

Enough already, and forgive me for starting the new year with a marketing message.

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/midseason.html

ttfn
Matt

 

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