Here we go again....
The big guns have stood their ground and the big race is back on. Great news as it really does look like being a cracker.....
Juddmonte International
I'm going to stick with the Duke as I tipped him in my original analysis of the race and I think the better ground should be even more in his favour.
(See Monday's post.)
Celebration Mile
The trends;
- 9 of the last 10 winners had won at the distance
- 7 of the last 10 had already won a Group race
- 4 - 6 y-o's have the best record with 7 of the last 10 winners.
With just two winning favourites in the last 10 years and the last 3-y-o winner coming in 2001 I'm going to dodge likely odds on favourite Raven's Pass.
So what does that leave us with? Dubai's Touch, who ran such a great race for me in the Goodwood Mile, doesn't look up to this grade .
The other outsider, Docofthebay, is much more interesting and I was very tempted to go with him at around 20/1. His second in the Hunt Cup where he gave Bankable 4lb and a 4 length beating is very good form. He then found the drop down to 7f and the firm ground against him at Ascot where he hung badly when making his challenge. But.... he has quite a bit to find on official ratings and with my punting confidence at an all time low I just can't bring myself to tip him. If the five runners line up I may have a little each-way speculation.
On firmer ground Third Set would have a chance to prove his Salisbury run all wrong but with the going currently Good to Soft I will instead side with Bankable who definitely deserves a change of fortune and a big Group race win.
Selection: Bankable.
---------------------
Nag3 Tipping Competition. Day 5 Leaderboard
With just two days to go it's all got a little bit interesting.
Just when it looked like The Lone Ronger was home and hosed 25/1 winner All The Good comes along and throws the cat amongst the pigeons, so to speak.
With both pricewise987 and micmac managing to pick the re-named Ebor winner (they must have read my Shergar Cup post when I made it my bet of the meeting!) they now close up and put real pressure on the Ronger.
Shorthead, not to be outdone, chose 9/1 Felday and stays towards the top.
The Leaderboard now looks like this;
The Lone Ronger.....+20.33
pricewise987............18
Shorthead................17.75
micmac.....................16
The Kernel..............7
Secret Squirrel.......5
Rays Rides..............4.16
Tess the Dog..........4
poor choice.............2.96
Cornish Geriatric...1.83
KENSFANCY.........1.39
The Pacing Roast....0.5
dannyboy5.............0.35
Itchy.......................+0.25
The rest of the field is at Level points or less.
I am at -3.09 points and bottom of the pile is Lucky! with -10 points.
Top priced winner is now shared at 25/1.
Today I will go for;
5:30 Goodwood
This 2m stayers h'cap looks all set for, the very unlucky last time out. top weight Silk Hall. He missed the break completely at Sandown but stayed on really strongly close home to be beaten 3/4 length after having looked like winning 1f out. The extra trip should suit and he looks well handicapped at the moment. Blue Citadel from Amanda Perretts yard could be biggest danger.
1:50 Beverley
Izzy Lou went into my notebook after a promising run first time out at Redcar. She looked all over the winner a furlong out in that race and I'm taking her to improve for the experience.
Of the others, the M Bell trained likely favourite Moneycantbuymelove must be the biggest threat as she finished 3rd of 16 at Newmarket on her only run.
------------------
Finally.....
Don't forget to check out Matt's video for the forthcoming TTS book and to sign up now for all the updates....
www.TrainerTrackStats.com
Good luck,
Gavin.
Juddmonte International
I'm going to stick with the Duke as I tipped him in my original analysis of the race and I think the better ground should be even more in his favour.
(See Monday's post.)
Celebration Mile
The trends;
- 9 of the last 10 winners had won at the distance
- 7 of the last 10 had already won a Group race
- 4 - 6 y-o's have the best record with 7 of the last 10 winners.
With just two winning favourites in the last 10 years and the last 3-y-o winner coming in 2001 I'm going to dodge likely odds on favourite Raven's Pass.
So what does that leave us with? Dubai's Touch, who ran such a great race for me in the Goodwood Mile, doesn't look up to this grade .
The other outsider, Docofthebay, is much more interesting and I was very tempted to go with him at around 20/1. His second in the Hunt Cup where he gave Bankable 4lb and a 4 length beating is very good form. He then found the drop down to 7f and the firm ground against him at Ascot where he hung badly when making his challenge. But.... he has quite a bit to find on official ratings and with my punting confidence at an all time low I just can't bring myself to tip him. If the five runners line up I may have a little each-way speculation.
On firmer ground Third Set would have a chance to prove his Salisbury run all wrong but with the going currently Good to Soft I will instead side with Bankable who definitely deserves a change of fortune and a big Group race win.
Selection: Bankable.
---------------------
Nag3 Tipping Competition. Day 5 Leaderboard
With just two days to go it's all got a little bit interesting.
Just when it looked like The Lone Ronger was home and hosed 25/1 winner All The Good comes along and throws the cat amongst the pigeons, so to speak.
With both pricewise987 and micmac managing to pick the re-named Ebor winner (they must have read my Shergar Cup post when I made it my bet of the meeting!) they now close up and put real pressure on the Ronger.
Shorthead, not to be outdone, chose 9/1 Felday and stays towards the top.
The Leaderboard now looks like this;
The Lone Ronger.....+20.33
pricewise987............18
Shorthead................17.75
micmac.....................16
The Kernel..............7
Secret Squirrel.......5
Rays Rides..............4.16
Tess the Dog..........4
poor choice.............2.96
Cornish Geriatric...1.83
KENSFANCY.........1.39
The Pacing Roast....0.5
dannyboy5.............0.35
Itchy.......................+0.25
The rest of the field is at Level points or less.
I am at -3.09 points and bottom of the pile is Lucky! with -10 points.
Top priced winner is now shared at 25/1.
Today I will go for;
5:30 Goodwood
This 2m stayers h'cap looks all set for, the very unlucky last time out. top weight Silk Hall. He missed the break completely at Sandown but stayed on really strongly close home to be beaten 3/4 length after having looked like winning 1f out. The extra trip should suit and he looks well handicapped at the moment. Blue Citadel from Amanda Perretts yard could be biggest danger.
1:50 Beverley
Izzy Lou went into my notebook after a promising run first time out at Redcar. She looked all over the winner a furlong out in that race and I'm taking her to improve for the experience.
Of the others, the M Bell trained likely favourite Moneycantbuymelove must be the biggest threat as she finished 3rd of 16 at Newmarket on her only run.
------------------
Finally.....
Don't forget to check out Matt's video for the forthcoming TTS book and to sign up now for all the updates....
www.TrainerTrackStats.com
Good luck,
Gavin.
posted by Gavin at
09:39
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