Bo Selector......
Hello Dear Readers,
It's a lovely sunny day here in South Wales and with some excellent racing to look forward to at the weekend everythings just fine and dandy at Nag3 HQ.
I've got Matt coming down at the weekend to visit clan Priestley-Bell so while he's here I'll get him to write a few words for you as I'm sure you're all missing his little pearls of wisdom.
Business first though and,
The Selector2 System Trials. Day 2
I began the system trial in earnest yesterday and after logging into the software and waiting for the selections to appear I was ready to go.
After a bit of time (definitely longer than 2 minutes) they appeared clearly identified with the date, meeting, time and most importantly the name of the horse. Easy peasy.
Yesterday there were 9 horses that qualified under the '3 Main Element' system but no 'Strong Fancy' system selections.
"How did they get on?" I hear you ask.
Well, the 9 selections produced 4 winners and at Starting Price made a slight loss of 1.39 points.
Nothing too serious and with a long way to go nothing to worry about as yet.
Obviously, all you Betfair Savvy punters will be getting the 'extra gravy' which would probably have you showing a slightly better return but for the purpose of this trial I will stick to SP.
Today there is 1 x 'Strong Fancy' and 12 x '3 Main Element' selections and I will be back tomorrow to let you know how they get on.
You can see the sales pitch and read all about The Selector2 by clicking below;
The Selector 2
--------
The big Summer race of the flat season takes place on Saturday at Ascot and it is of course the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes.
A small field and a whole host of top class middle distance horses missing means that most of the shine has been taken off this midsummer racing jewel (I guess £850,000 isn't enough of an incentive to run these days!) but hopefully we'll still get a cracking race.
On the plus side - there are some very strong trends for the King George....
The first thing to note is that this is a race won by fancied runners.
- The last 4 favourites have all obliged
- 6 of the last 10 favourites have won
and
- 8 of the last 10 winners were from the first two in the betting.
Age.
- Only six 5-y-o's have won this race since 1951
- 3 and 4 y-o's have won the last 8 runnings
With the poor record of 5-y-o's and, unbelievably, no 3 y-o's in the field again it looks like concentrating on the 4-y-o's is the best policy.
Another thing to note is that, not surprisingly, Top Class horses win this race;
- 9 of the last 10 champions were Group 1 winners already
- 9 of the last 10 winners were placed in a Group1 or Group 2 race last time out
- All 10 winners were rated at least 120
Other trends;
- Only 1 winner in the last 10 years was making their seasonal reappearance.
- The other 9 had all run between 2 and 4 times already that season.
Which leaves us at this stage with just 2.....Duke of Marmalade and Mount Nelson
Oh no....It's that man again Aidan O'Brien!
There are major doubts about his stamina but the strong trends and the excellent record of fancied horses makes Duke of Marmalade the most likely winner .
That said;
At odds on, is he value?....Probably not
Will he win?.....Probably
Will I be backing him?....Definitely not!!
Gavin.
It's a lovely sunny day here in South Wales and with some excellent racing to look forward to at the weekend everythings just fine and dandy at Nag3 HQ.
I've got Matt coming down at the weekend to visit clan Priestley-Bell so while he's here I'll get him to write a few words for you as I'm sure you're all missing his little pearls of wisdom.
Business first though and,
The Selector2 System Trials. Day 2
I began the system trial in earnest yesterday and after logging into the software and waiting for the selections to appear I was ready to go.
After a bit of time (definitely longer than 2 minutes) they appeared clearly identified with the date, meeting, time and most importantly the name of the horse. Easy peasy.
Yesterday there were 9 horses that qualified under the '3 Main Element' system but no 'Strong Fancy' system selections.
"How did they get on?" I hear you ask.
Well, the 9 selections produced 4 winners and at Starting Price made a slight loss of 1.39 points.
Nothing too serious and with a long way to go nothing to worry about as yet.
Obviously, all you Betfair Savvy punters will be getting the 'extra gravy' which would probably have you showing a slightly better return but for the purpose of this trial I will stick to SP.
Today there is 1 x 'Strong Fancy' and 12 x '3 Main Element' selections and I will be back tomorrow to let you know how they get on.
You can see the sales pitch and read all about The Selector2 by clicking below;
The Selector 2
--------
The big Summer race of the flat season takes place on Saturday at Ascot and it is of course the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes.
A small field and a whole host of top class middle distance horses missing means that most of the shine has been taken off this midsummer racing jewel (I guess £850,000 isn't enough of an incentive to run these days!) but hopefully we'll still get a cracking race.
On the plus side - there are some very strong trends for the King George....
The first thing to note is that this is a race won by fancied runners.
- The last 4 favourites have all obliged
- 6 of the last 10 favourites have won
and
- 8 of the last 10 winners were from the first two in the betting.
Age.
- Only six 5-y-o's have won this race since 1951
- 3 and 4 y-o's have won the last 8 runnings
With the poor record of 5-y-o's and, unbelievably, no 3 y-o's in the field again it looks like concentrating on the 4-y-o's is the best policy.
Another thing to note is that, not surprisingly, Top Class horses win this race;
- 9 of the last 10 champions were Group 1 winners already
- 9 of the last 10 winners were placed in a Group1 or Group 2 race last time out
- All 10 winners were rated at least 120
Other trends;
- Only 1 winner in the last 10 years was making their seasonal reappearance.
- The other 9 had all run between 2 and 4 times already that season.
Which leaves us at this stage with just 2.....Duke of Marmalade and Mount Nelson
Oh no....It's that man again Aidan O'Brien!
There are major doubts about his stamina but the strong trends and the excellent record of fancied horses makes Duke of Marmalade the most likely winner .
That said;
At odds on, is he value?....Probably not
Will he win?.....Probably
Will I be backing him?....Definitely not!!
Gavin.
posted by Gavin at
13:48
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