Royal Ascot Trends: The West of Wednesday...

A muted start on day one, dear weader (a touch of the Elmer Fudd's in this post...!), with Haradasun doing the beeswax for Gavin in the opening Queen Anne Stakes, but not much else to cheer home alas.

Gavin also put up 3^rd placed, Twice Over at 8/1, while my selections in the juvenile events ran well without threatening to win (Orizaba missed the break and finished fifth behind impressive winner, Art Connoisseur; Light The Fire showed up well for a long way but faded to tenth behind the 100/1 (!) winner, trained by one of last season’s trainers to follow, John Best).

Still, four race previews and one 5/1 winner puts us marginally in front.

TrainerFlatStats weighed in too, with one runner: Yamal winning at 9/2. FOUR days left to get your copy should be so inclined. Window shuts (and is firmly bolted!) on Saturday at 5.35.

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To Wednesday and, as well as the Prince of Wales Stakes already previewed by Gavin, let’s take a look at a few of the other races.

Firstly, my sincere gratitude to the excellent work of Paul Jones, whose pieces are paraphrased here due to time constraints on my part. You can read his work, and also watch the Royal Ascot racing AND check out loads of other cool stuff at the Attheraces website. And it’s all gratis! It’s about the best Royal Ascot site on the web (after Nag3 of course!)

2.30 Jersey Stakes

18 go to post. A Group winning horse has not won since 1986. Lose the top four, including Jupiter Pluvius.

Six of the last twelve winners won last time out, and all bar one finished in the first four LTO. Scratching those that didn’t reduces the field to eight.

There is a standout form race, which appears to be the key prep for this: the King Charles II Stakes. Half of the last eight winners (yes, that’s four!) were first or second in the above race. The front two both line up here, and are Calming Influence and Stimulation respectively.

They’ll do for me, and I’ll take the latter to reverse placings tomorrow.

Selection: Stimulation
Danger: Calming Influence

The Windsor Forest (3.05), a mile race restricted to the girls, has only been going since 2004, and its been pretty much Sir Michael Stoute’s race. He’s won it twice and had the second in another year. Last year, he could only manage 5^th and 7^th.

There’s little else to go on just yet, and Stoute runs the favourite, Heaven Sent tomorrow. Let’s not overcomplicate this.

My old mate Gerard Butler’s mare, Baharah might follow her home.

Selection: Heaven Sent
Danger: Baharah

The Royal Hunt Cup (4.20) is the most curious of races for a banker bet to emerge in, but Luca Cumani’s Bankable holds this mantle for many punters. Officially a stone well in, and easy peasy winner of both starts this season (and his last two last year), it’s not hard to see why.

The trends in the race are thus:

- All bar two of the last 22 winners were four or five years old.

- Only trend busting Mine in 2004 (a 6yo) has carried more than 9 stone to victory since 1991 (Bankable carries 9-02!)

- 7 of the last eleven winners were drawn close to either rail (within six stalls)

- Half of the last 14 winners ran in the Victoria Cup

Although Bankable may well win, there is lots of value to be had elsewhere. (Hotpots do get rolled over in this race).

We’ll Come from the Michael Jarvis stable is well drawn in 27, carries less than 9-00, is a 4yo, and must improve for his first run of the season, a staying on fourth having missed the break… in the Victoria Cup. At around 8/1, he looks a rock solid each way alternative to the Banka.

Selection: We’ll Come
Danger: Bankable

The Queen Mary (4.55), a kilometre sprint for young ladies (or 2yo fillies, if you prefer), is a race much favoured by Messrs Hannon and Channon, and a race I’ve backed many winners in over the years.

The trends say:

- 12 of the last 13 won last time out

- 6 of the last 8 (though not the last two) were unbeaten

- Channon has won thrice in the last decade

Selection: Lucky Leigh
Danger: Baileys Cacao

Staying with the girls in the ‘lucky last’ at 5.30, the Listed Sandringham handicap over a mile, and some quite strong patterns to assist…

- All bar two of the last 13 winners had a handicap rating of at least 90 (delete the bottom five)

- Ten of the last dozen winners had won already that season (only two left!)

The two on the shortlist then are Rosaleen and Jazz Jam. The latter won on the all weather and will find this rather different. Meanwhile, the former won nicely over course and distance before being a tad outclassed in a recognised Oaks trial last time.

Selection: Rosaleen
Danger: Jazz Jam

Good luck with your Woyal Wednesday Wagers, and let’s pwey we win a wickle bit. (where’s that wascal wabbit, Elmer?!)

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