Royal Ascot Trends: St James Palace Stakes
One of the most interesting races of the week with the form of the three European 2000 Guineas set to go under the microscope. Some strong trends for this race and very few recent shock results should make this a good punting race.
- Unsurprisingly 13 of the last 14 winners had been placed in the top 4 of either the English, Irish or French 2000 Guineas.
- Of the last 10 winners, all had at least 2 career wins prior to lining up for this race.
- 9 of the last 10 winners were officially rated at least 116
- The biggest price winner in the last 10 years was 8/1
Again, unsurprisingly the three horses left are Henrythenavigator, Ravens Pass and Falco.
But....
the other horse in the top four of the betting, Twice Over, could also be added to this shortlist.
Of the last 14 runnings,the only horse not to have competed in any of the Guineas and come on to win this race was Dr Fong.
Twice Over has a very similar profile to this 1998 winner in that Dr Fong was unbeaten as a 2yo (2 from 2), he was trained by Henry Cecil and he too was thought of as a Derby fancy until beaten in the Dante.
So four horses left and the front four in the betting, but which one will win?
Aiden O'Brien's record in the race is second to none (won 4 of the last 8 renewals) and he is the only trainer to have done the Newmarket Guineas and the St James Palace double since 1981 (with Rock of Gibraltar). Henrythenavigator's form in both Guineas couldn't have been franked any better by New Approach and he will surely take all the beating.
The French Guineas form has generally been the weakest of all the Guineas and I feel Falco may struggle to win this race.
Twice Over's beating of Ravens Pass in the Craven stamped him as an above average miler and the subsequent decision to bypass the Guineas spectacularly backfired when he was well beaten in the Dante. The form of the Dante though was given a big boost by the winner, Tartan Bearer, in the Derby.
I won't be rushing to take the odds-on price available for Henrythenavigator and suggest at the current odds, Twice Over is the value bet to confirm superiority over Ravens Pass and prove his Dante run all wrong.
Selection: Twice Over
Danger: Henrythenavigator
p.s. Six days left to get TFS before the window closes forever. Click here for your copy.
- Unsurprisingly 13 of the last 14 winners had been placed in the top 4 of either the English, Irish or French 2000 Guineas.
- Of the last 10 winners, all had at least 2 career wins prior to lining up for this race.
- 9 of the last 10 winners were officially rated at least 116
- The biggest price winner in the last 10 years was 8/1
Again, unsurprisingly the three horses left are Henrythenavigator, Ravens Pass and Falco.
But....
the other horse in the top four of the betting, Twice Over, could also be added to this shortlist.
Of the last 14 runnings,the only horse not to have competed in any of the Guineas and come on to win this race was Dr Fong.
Twice Over has a very similar profile to this 1998 winner in that Dr Fong was unbeaten as a 2yo (2 from 2), he was trained by Henry Cecil and he too was thought of as a Derby fancy until beaten in the Dante.
So four horses left and the front four in the betting, but which one will win?
Aiden O'Brien's record in the race is second to none (won 4 of the last 8 renewals) and he is the only trainer to have done the Newmarket Guineas and the St James Palace double since 1981 (with Rock of Gibraltar). Henrythenavigator's form in both Guineas couldn't have been franked any better by New Approach and he will surely take all the beating.
The French Guineas form has generally been the weakest of all the Guineas and I feel Falco may struggle to win this race.
Twice Over's beating of Ravens Pass in the Craven stamped him as an above average miler and the subsequent decision to bypass the Guineas spectacularly backfired when he was well beaten in the Dante. The form of the Dante though was given a big boost by the winner, Tartan Bearer, in the Derby.
I won't be rushing to take the odds-on price available for Henrythenavigator and suggest at the current odds, Twice Over is the value bet to confirm superiority over Ravens Pass and prove his Dante run all wrong.
Selection: Twice Over
Danger: Henrythenavigator
p.s. Six days left to get TFS before the window closes forever. Click here for your copy.
Labels: Royal Ascot
posted by Gavin at
14:25
3 Comments:
Hi Guys, a good read as usual, but where do you find this sort of trend information, or do you research it yourself!?
Hi Stanley, the information is gathered from various sources. The Racing Post provide the winners from the last 10 years for every race on their website pages. We have a few 'trends' books that are available to buy from Weatherbys and I keep the Big Race Trends column in the Racing Post for use the following year. Then it's just a question of piecing it all together! Gavin
People should read this.
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