Royal Ascot Trends: Prince of Wales Stakes

Some notable trends for this race include;

- no horse aged 6 years or older has won since 1995

- 9 out of last 10 winners posted a top 3 finish last time

- Only one horse in the last decade was making his seasonal re-appearance

- Only 1 mare has won in the last decade

Unfortunately this does not narrow the field down very much but when we learn that this race was only granted Group 1 status in 2000, some very strong trends emerge.

- In the 8 years of this race being run as a Group 1 EVERY winner has previously scored at Group 1 level AND contested a Group 1 race last time out. Applying this trend to the field it leaves just 3 horses, Duke of Marmalade, Literato and Pressing

- Also, since being awarded Group 1 status the race has seen the winner come from the top 4 in the betting for all 8 renewals. This would seem to eliminate Literato

Another very interesting stat for this race is that the last four 5-y-o winners all contested the Prince of Wales the previous year as a 4-y-o.
Michael Jarvis's Pressing contested this as a 4-y-o when he finished 5th to Manduro. The trainer won the race in 2004 with Rakti and on this basis I will select him as the value alternative to the favourite.

Selection: Pressing
Danger: Duke of Marmalade