Royal Ascot Trends: Last chance saloon

The Golden Jubilee.

-Last 10 winners had all previously scored at Listed level or above

-Every winner since 1990 had already won at 6f
So Aeroplane won't be flying in.

-3-y-o's are 0 from 40 runners since 1996
So we will lose the 4 youngsters.

- Aiden O'Brien has never won this race. It's difficult to leave any of his horses out of a Group 1 race, especially after this week but we need to cut the field down
He runs two so 13 left.

-The last 10 favourites have all been beaten.
Difficult to predict who will start favourite at the moment so we'll leave this for the moment.

- 8 out of the last 10 winners had run within 24 days of this race.
This seems to strike out quite a number of fancied horses.

- 6 of the last 10 had finished in the top 4 last time.
- 7 of the last 10 had already won that season.
Dark Missile misses out on both of these trends which leaves us with 5

Utmost Respect probably won't get the rain he needs to run and I will concentrate on the remaining 4;
Balthazars Gift, Marchand D'Or, Snaefell and Takeover Target.

- Previous Royal Ascot form is another good pointer to this race (7 of the previous 13 winners had run at Royal Ascot)
- 7 of the last 10 winners had made all or raced prominently throughout

With the Southern Hemisphere horses running well in recent years I will select Takeover Target, who usually races up with the pace, to go one better than his run on Tuesday. I just hope he doesn't start favourite!

Selection: Takeover Target
Danger: Balthazars Gift


Chesham Stakes

Usually the weakest of the Royal Ascot 2-y-o races but a good race for the punter as;

- 18 of the last 19 winners were from the first 3 in the betting
- 8 of these were favourite

- Ireland have only won this race once since 1978
Unfortunately this doesn't help us as they don't run any this year. Obviously they are aware of this trend!

- 7 winners in the last decade had won their sole start

- Mark Johnston's last 10 runners have yielded 3 winners and 2 thirds

Not much to go on but with Richard Hannon's horse having won his sole start and likely to be at the head of the market, he will do nicely.

Selection: Free Agent
Danger: Pegasus Lad


Hardwicke Stakes


- The Irish have only won this once since 1983 and Aiden O'Brien has never won this race (His Scorpion was beaten at odds-on last year)
Reluctantly after his great run for me in the Coronation Cup, McArthur is scratched.

- Only one winner since 1977 has carried a Group 1 penalty.
No, no Lurcarno

- 12 of the last 13 winners had won over 1m4f
3 won't stay in our list

- No horse older than 6 has won in the last 30 years.
Looks like 7-y-o Maraahel's bid for a three timer is doomed (Deja vu anyone?)

- 11 of the last 13 winners had won a Group 2 or 3 race
Spanish Moon and Speed Gifted are without the class.

This leaves us with three but Yellowstone would be a shock winner and I will choose from the other two, Happy Boy and Hi Calypso.

With Ryan Moore opting to ride Spanish Moon over Hi calypso and the better record of 5-y-o's in the race I will go with Goldophin's entry.

Selection: Happy Boy
Danger: Hi Calypso

I'll be back with more later,
Gavin.