Royal Ascot Trends: Ladies Day
Ladies Day at Ascot which should ensure the BBC flat racing coverage is even worse than usual. Full of fashion experts criticising some poor girl for wearing flat shoes instead of heels, loads of hat experts cooing over some £500 monstrosity and totally inane blabbering and speculation on the colour of the Queens outfit. It almost, almost! makes you wish for more of Willie Carson, the most pointless and annoying racing 'expert' on TV.
Who cares, if you want fashion go and watch Trinny and Susanah on some obscure Sky channel, just leave the racing alone! (If you do care, then the Queen will be wearing a Pale Blue hat this year, 5/1 with Skybet).
Anyway rant over, on to the highlight of the day the Ascot Gold Cup.....
Favourite for the race is Yeats but I am going to oppose him on the grounds that
- Sagaro was the last horse to win a hat-trick of Gold Cups in 1975-77. Plenty have tried since and failed.
- there has only been 1 winner aged 7 or older in the last 68 years.
This last stat also excludes 3 others.
- The last 8 winners had all won at least a Group 2 race.
- 5 of the last 6 British trained winners had run in the Henry II Stakes at Sandown
Bye Bye Baddam and the two Bin Suroor runners.
Which leaves 4.
If you forget the enigmatic Royal Rebel who always seemed to need a couple of runs before getting to Ascot, placed form in the prep run is very important with only 4 of the last 18 (2 of which were the Rebel) running unplaced. So by removing the down-the-field-last-time Allegretto and Thundering Star we are left with;
Coastal Path and Finalmente.
Preference is for the unbeaten French colt Coastal Path. Any rain will only boost his chances.
Selection: Coastal Path
Each Way: Finalmente
Norfolk Stakes
I am relying on the 3 horses that have run already this week not turning out again.
- Must be a winner last time out. Only 1 winner since 1991 was beaten last time out
- 10 of last 15 winners undefeated in their career so far
- 8 out last 10 winners had only ever raced at 5f
- fancied horses win this race. 11 of last 15 started 5-1 or shorter. Last 5 winners were 1st or 2nd favourites
Howard Johnson won this race in 2005 and his representative South Central romped home by 11 lengths last time and a repeat of that run should see him in the shake up.
Jeremy Noseda's (whose 2-y-o's always do well at Ascot ) Waffle looks the main danger.
Selection: South Central
Danger: Waffle
Gavin
Who cares, if you want fashion go and watch Trinny and Susanah on some obscure Sky channel, just leave the racing alone! (If you do care, then the Queen will be wearing a Pale Blue hat this year, 5/1 with Skybet).
Anyway rant over, on to the highlight of the day the Ascot Gold Cup.....
Favourite for the race is Yeats but I am going to oppose him on the grounds that
- Sagaro was the last horse to win a hat-trick of Gold Cups in 1975-77. Plenty have tried since and failed.
- there has only been 1 winner aged 7 or older in the last 68 years.
This last stat also excludes 3 others.
- The last 8 winners had all won at least a Group 2 race.
- 5 of the last 6 British trained winners had run in the Henry II Stakes at Sandown
Bye Bye Baddam and the two Bin Suroor runners.
Which leaves 4.
If you forget the enigmatic Royal Rebel who always seemed to need a couple of runs before getting to Ascot, placed form in the prep run is very important with only 4 of the last 18 (2 of which were the Rebel) running unplaced. So by removing the down-the-field-last-time Allegretto and Thundering Star we are left with;
Coastal Path and Finalmente.
Preference is for the unbeaten French colt Coastal Path. Any rain will only boost his chances.
Selection: Coastal Path
Each Way: Finalmente
Norfolk Stakes
I am relying on the 3 horses that have run already this week not turning out again.
- Must be a winner last time out. Only 1 winner since 1991 was beaten last time out
- 10 of last 15 winners undefeated in their career so far
- 8 out last 10 winners had only ever raced at 5f
- fancied horses win this race. 11 of last 15 started 5-1 or shorter. Last 5 winners were 1st or 2nd favourites
Howard Johnson won this race in 2005 and his representative South Central romped home by 11 lengths last time and a repeat of that run should see him in the shake up.
Jeremy Noseda's (whose 2-y-o's always do well at Ascot ) Waffle looks the main danger.
Selection: South Central
Danger: Waffle
Gavin
posted by Gavin at
15:19
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