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Thursday, 19 June 2008

Royal Ascot Trends- Friday's races

Ladies first... The Coronation Stakes.

Forget last years shock 6 length 25/1 winner and the trends are quite good for this race.

- Not surprisingly, 9 out of the last 10 winners had run in either the English, Irish or French 1000 guineas.

- 14 of the last 17 winners had finished in the top 3 last time out

- 8 of the last 10 winners had won at least at Group 3 level

Applying these trends leaves us with a shortlist of;
Carribean Sunset, Modern Look and Spacious

Interestingly, since 1993 only 2 horses placed in the Newmarket Guineas have come on to win the Coronation Stakes so I will eliminate Spacious on this basis.

Difficult to split the pair that are left but I will side with Carribean Sunset as she looks to have the edge on a line through Halfway to Heaven.

Selection: Carribean Sunset
Danger: Modern Look


King Edward VII Stakes


The 'Ascot Derby' but not a single horse that ran in the Epsom Derby set to contest this years race.


- Ireland have only had one winner in the last 30 years.

Cheerio to Hebridean, Moiqen and Winchester to be sure.


- 11 of the last 12 winners had not yet won over 1m4f+

Here we lose All the Aces


- 11 of the last 13 winners were winning a Group race for the first time

Another one bites the dust, City Leader


- 12 of the last 14 winners started favourite or second-favourite


Sir Michael Stoute has won this race 4 times since 1991 and with Conduit likely to be towards the front of the betting I will side with him


Selection: Conduit

Danger: Campanologist

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