Royal Ascot Trends: Coventry & Windsor Castle
The Day One juvenile events are always well contested, dear reader, and 2008 will be no exception, with loads of winning debutantes pitching against each other.
However, with the usual assistance of draw and historical data, we can try to dig beneath the surface of insoluble form, and get to the nub of the winning horse profiles.
Enough of this introductory bluster, and on with the piece!
First up is the Coventry Stakes, over 6f on Tuesday at 4.20. It's for the boys and the trends are quite instructive. Here's what I learnt:
- All of the last ten winners had won on their previous start. This quickly scratches four of the eighteen runners.
- All ten had either won over six furlongs (the Coventry distance) OR were trained by Aidan O'Brien. Three more fail on this count, leaving eleven
- All won a Class 4 or better race OR an Irish EBF race last time out. One unlucky nag gets his horse blanket and heads for the exit.
- 9/10 had run just once or twice. Cheerio to Shampagne. Half the field still standing.
- A really interesting stat is that 8/10 won last time out by 2 lengths or more, and 10/10 won by 3/4 of a length or more. Applying the 8/10 stat reduces the nine to just four.
The four on the shortlist then are:
Lord Shanakill
Orizaba
Shaweel
Versaki
On form, and visual inspection, preposterously facile Newbury winner Orizaba will take some stopping. He's also clear on Timeform ratings.
Allied to these positives is the fact that 9 of the last 10 winners of the race had been 8/1 or shorter in the betting. Orizaba is the only one of the four shortlisted to pretty much be guaranteed to be in the right price bracket.
However, one possible fly in the Orizaba ointment is that he has drawn stall one. In the four runnings of the Coventry in the past decade where there were 18 runners or more, three of them have been won by a very high drawn horse.
An honourable mention for Peter Tchaikovsky who fits the profile of an O'Brien winner, aside from his last time out winning margin. On breeding, he probably did very well to overcome the short five furlong trip that day, and will be better suited by a mile plus in time. He might be good enough to buck the winning distance trend.
Selection: Orizaba
Danger: Peter Tchaikovsky
A quick trip south from Coventry to Windsor Castle, and a drop back in distance to five eighths of a mile for a Listed contest.
The profile of a Windsor Castle winner is not quite so robust as its more illustrious juvenile colleague, the Coventry, but there are still some pretty promising lines. A whacking 26 go to post, so let's take a look:
- 8/10 winners had already won a race (six of these eight won by 2 1/2 lengths or more). Ten down directly.
- 8/10 finished 1st or 2nd last time out. Four of these did not and are struck off our register.
- 9/10 last ran between nine and 28 days ago. Another couple with cobwebs depart.
- 8/10 had two previous runs (10/10 had 1-3 previous runs). We'll erase those not having their third start, of which there are four. Six left.
- Of the eight times when the race has been contested by 14 or more horses (which excludes the ten runner affair at York when the track here was being renovated), six of them have gone to a horse drawn in double digits.
This leaves us with a trio of candidates: Dabbers Chief, Effort and Light The Fire.
The last named is trained by Bryan Meehan, who won this race in 2000 with Autumnal, and has a fine chance this time.
The winning debutante Bushranger rates a danger, though there could be many!
Selection: Light The Fire
Danger: Bushranger
Plenty more of these previews to come, so stay tuned over the next couple of days!
Matt
However, with the usual assistance of draw and historical data, we can try to dig beneath the surface of insoluble form, and get to the nub of the winning horse profiles.
Enough of this introductory bluster, and on with the piece!
First up is the Coventry Stakes, over 6f on Tuesday at 4.20. It's for the boys and the trends are quite instructive. Here's what I learnt:
- All of the last ten winners had won on their previous start. This quickly scratches four of the eighteen runners.
- All ten had either won over six furlongs (the Coventry distance) OR were trained by Aidan O'Brien. Three more fail on this count, leaving eleven
- All won a Class 4 or better race OR an Irish EBF race last time out. One unlucky nag gets his horse blanket and heads for the exit.
- 9/10 had run just once or twice. Cheerio to Shampagne. Half the field still standing.
- A really interesting stat is that 8/10 won last time out by 2 lengths or more, and 10/10 won by 3/4 of a length or more. Applying the 8/10 stat reduces the nine to just four.
The four on the shortlist then are:
Lord Shanakill
Orizaba
Shaweel
Versaki
On form, and visual inspection, preposterously facile Newbury winner Orizaba will take some stopping. He's also clear on Timeform ratings.
Allied to these positives is the fact that 9 of the last 10 winners of the race had been 8/1 or shorter in the betting. Orizaba is the only one of the four shortlisted to pretty much be guaranteed to be in the right price bracket.
However, one possible fly in the Orizaba ointment is that he has drawn stall one. In the four runnings of the Coventry in the past decade where there were 18 runners or more, three of them have been won by a very high drawn horse.
An honourable mention for Peter Tchaikovsky who fits the profile of an O'Brien winner, aside from his last time out winning margin. On breeding, he probably did very well to overcome the short five furlong trip that day, and will be better suited by a mile plus in time. He might be good enough to buck the winning distance trend.
Selection: Orizaba
Danger: Peter Tchaikovsky
A quick trip south from Coventry to Windsor Castle, and a drop back in distance to five eighths of a mile for a Listed contest.
The profile of a Windsor Castle winner is not quite so robust as its more illustrious juvenile colleague, the Coventry, but there are still some pretty promising lines. A whacking 26 go to post, so let's take a look:
- 8/10 winners had already won a race (six of these eight won by 2 1/2 lengths or more). Ten down directly.
- 8/10 finished 1st or 2nd last time out. Four of these did not and are struck off our register.
- 9/10 last ran between nine and 28 days ago. Another couple with cobwebs depart.
- 8/10 had two previous runs (10/10 had 1-3 previous runs). We'll erase those not having their third start, of which there are four. Six left.
- Of the eight times when the race has been contested by 14 or more horses (which excludes the ten runner affair at York when the track here was being renovated), six of them have gone to a horse drawn in double digits.
This leaves us with a trio of candidates: Dabbers Chief, Effort and Light The Fire.
The last named is trained by Bryan Meehan, who won this race in 2000 with Autumnal, and has a fine chance this time.
The winning debutante Bushranger rates a danger, though there could be many!
Selection: Light The Fire
Danger: Bushranger
Plenty more of these previews to come, so stay tuned over the next couple of days!
Matt
Labels: Royal Ascot
posted by Matt at
19:05
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