Last but definitely not least.....
The last of my posts for now and an indepth look at one of my favourite races of the year,
THE Derby.
Firstly, I've changed my mind more times than Jim Bolger regarding this race and due to events this week even Matt has questioned my sanity over the final selection but I've decided to go with my original post (I'm sure Matt will enjoy the bragging rights for weeks to come should it all go belly up!) and with fingers firmly crossed here it is........
17 runners but 16 really as Maidstone Mix cannot win unless he starts at Tattenham corner.
We can also forget Alan Devonshire as he looks outclassed too.
The last maiden to win the Derby was Merry Hampton in 1887, so I think we can safely put a line through Aiden O'Briens pair Bashkirov and Washington Irving.
An interesting stat is that no horse has ever won the Derby after being beaten in the Dante, so goodbye to another O'Brien horse...Frozen Fire.
14 of the last 15 Derby winners had won last time out (Sir Percy was the exception having finished 2nd in the 2000 Guineas). So if we disregard any horse not finishing in the top two last time out we can knock out Bougeureau and River Proud and if we take this stat literally we can knock out another O'Brien horse King of Rome plus the Goldophin beast, Rio De La Plata. (Saeed Bin Suroor has yet to win the Derby and has had 15 beaten horses in the last decade.) We will leave New Approach in for the moment as he too also finished 2nd in the 2000 guineas.
This leaves us with Alessandro Volta as the only Aiden O'Brien runner left and he looks a very interesting runner. Last time out he won the Lingfield Derby Trial, a race that has provided the winner of the Derby 4 times since 1983 and run on a track that is very similar to Epsom.
Currently trading at 40/1, I think this is a big price for a horse that will stay the trip, handle the track and from a top stable with a fine record in the race. (2 winners and 3 runner ups since 2001).
My only concern is the going as he does need the ground to firm up a bit. With Epsom reporting that the track is drying out all the time I'll take a chance that the going will be okay for him, especially at the big price on offer.
Another interesting stat is that the winner in each of the last 10 renewals have all had 5 career runs or less. This would seem to exclude a very fancied runner in Curtain Call. Also, the last 10 winners had all run within 30 days of the race. Curtain Calls last run was 45 days ago when he won a 3 runner race at Nottingham. His trainer has a great record in this race (2 wins and a 2nd) and he really has been quite bullish about this horse's chance but he's not for me.
Another horse to fail on the 30 day rule is Kandahar Run. If any horse is to prove me wrong I hope it is the Henry Cecil runner but he doesn't look to have the class of previous Cecil winners and horses running in the Fielden Stakes (he was 2nd to Campanologist) don't have a great record in the derby.
Next we have the two most popular Irish trainers in the racing world and their representatives. Dermot Weld with Casual Conquest and Jim Bolger with NewApproach.
Firstly, New Approach. Horses that ran in the 2000 guineas have a very poor record in the Derby. Yes Sir Percy did it but there have been a long list of failures throughout the years and Sir Percy did it without the added inconvenience of contesting the Irish 2000 as well. All those punters who managed to get the 209/1 on Betfair are obviously sitting on a very nice price but I would be looking to lay it all back on this doubtful stayer at the much shorter price now on offer.
Casual Conquest on the other hand looks cast iron to run a very big race. The Derrinstown Stud Trial that it won last time threw up the Derby winner 3 times in the early noughties and Casual Conquest couldn't have been more impressive when slamming Washington Irving by 6 lengths. My only concern is his inexperience: no Derby winner in the last 10 years had run less than three times prior to the race. If he can overcome his inexperience he will run a big race.
For me, the key to the whole race is Sir Michael Stoute. He has won this great race 4 times and seen plenty of his runners run extremely well making him a trainer to take seriously. This year he has three runners and all seem to have a good chance.
Doctor Fremantle, beaten by Bronze Cannon off level weights in a Newmarket handicap, has obviously improved since this defeat and won a Chester trial quite comfortably.
The second of his runners, Tartan Bearer won the number 1 Derby trial of recent years: The Dante. He beat the O'Brien horse Frozen Fire that day but the race was devalued a bit with the poor running of the favourite and one time Derby jolly Twice Over (subsequently found to have had a 'problem').
Ryan Moore has chosen Tartan Bearer and of the two he looks the more likely but it's Stoute's third entry that appeals most to me as the likely Derby winner......
Step forward Tajaweed, this horse looks to have all the right credentials and fits all the right stats and trends. He will go on the ground and his win at Chester in the Dee stakes (2 previous winners since 1999 including Stoute's Kris Kin) had class stamped all over it. He looked as though the step up in trip could only help him improve and I'm really confident he will stay the 1m 4f.
The horse he beat that day, Unnefer, has won a decent contest since and come Saturday I think Tajaweed will be crowned King of Epsom. The minor setback he had midweek has been sorted and, if anything, has helped us because we can now get 10/1 instead of the 6's it would have been. Every cloud and all that...
Last word goes to Kieran Fallon who was quoted as saying 'he would choose Tajaweed' if he was given the choice of the field. If it's good enough for Kieran it's good enough for me!
Selection- Tajaweed.
Danger- Casual Conquest.
Each Way- Alessandro Volta.
THE Derby.
Firstly, I've changed my mind more times than Jim Bolger regarding this race and due to events this week even Matt has questioned my sanity over the final selection but I've decided to go with my original post (I'm sure Matt will enjoy the bragging rights for weeks to come should it all go belly up!) and with fingers firmly crossed here it is........
17 runners but 16 really as Maidstone Mix cannot win unless he starts at Tattenham corner.
We can also forget Alan Devonshire as he looks outclassed too.
The last maiden to win the Derby was Merry Hampton in 1887, so I think we can safely put a line through Aiden O'Briens pair Bashkirov and Washington Irving.
An interesting stat is that no horse has ever won the Derby after being beaten in the Dante, so goodbye to another O'Brien horse...Frozen Fire.
14 of the last 15 Derby winners had won last time out (Sir Percy was the exception having finished 2nd in the 2000 Guineas). So if we disregard any horse not finishing in the top two last time out we can knock out Bougeureau and River Proud and if we take this stat literally we can knock out another O'Brien horse King of Rome plus the Goldophin beast, Rio De La Plata. (Saeed Bin Suroor has yet to win the Derby and has had 15 beaten horses in the last decade.) We will leave New Approach in for the moment as he too also finished 2nd in the 2000 guineas.
This leaves us with Alessandro Volta as the only Aiden O'Brien runner left and he looks a very interesting runner. Last time out he won the Lingfield Derby Trial, a race that has provided the winner of the Derby 4 times since 1983 and run on a track that is very similar to Epsom.
Currently trading at 40/1, I think this is a big price for a horse that will stay the trip, handle the track and from a top stable with a fine record in the race. (2 winners and 3 runner ups since 2001).
My only concern is the going as he does need the ground to firm up a bit. With Epsom reporting that the track is drying out all the time I'll take a chance that the going will be okay for him, especially at the big price on offer.
Another interesting stat is that the winner in each of the last 10 renewals have all had 5 career runs or less. This would seem to exclude a very fancied runner in Curtain Call. Also, the last 10 winners had all run within 30 days of the race. Curtain Calls last run was 45 days ago when he won a 3 runner race at Nottingham. His trainer has a great record in this race (2 wins and a 2nd) and he really has been quite bullish about this horse's chance but he's not for me.
Another horse to fail on the 30 day rule is Kandahar Run. If any horse is to prove me wrong I hope it is the Henry Cecil runner but he doesn't look to have the class of previous Cecil winners and horses running in the Fielden Stakes (he was 2nd to Campanologist) don't have a great record in the derby.
Next we have the two most popular Irish trainers in the racing world and their representatives. Dermot Weld with Casual Conquest and Jim Bolger with NewApproach.
Firstly, New Approach. Horses that ran in the 2000 guineas have a very poor record in the Derby. Yes Sir Percy did it but there have been a long list of failures throughout the years and Sir Percy did it without the added inconvenience of contesting the Irish 2000 as well. All those punters who managed to get the 209/1 on Betfair are obviously sitting on a very nice price but I would be looking to lay it all back on this doubtful stayer at the much shorter price now on offer.
Casual Conquest on the other hand looks cast iron to run a very big race. The Derrinstown Stud Trial that it won last time threw up the Derby winner 3 times in the early noughties and Casual Conquest couldn't have been more impressive when slamming Washington Irving by 6 lengths. My only concern is his inexperience: no Derby winner in the last 10 years had run less than three times prior to the race. If he can overcome his inexperience he will run a big race.
For me, the key to the whole race is Sir Michael Stoute. He has won this great race 4 times and seen plenty of his runners run extremely well making him a trainer to take seriously. This year he has three runners and all seem to have a good chance.
Doctor Fremantle, beaten by Bronze Cannon off level weights in a Newmarket handicap, has obviously improved since this defeat and won a Chester trial quite comfortably.
The second of his runners, Tartan Bearer won the number 1 Derby trial of recent years: The Dante. He beat the O'Brien horse Frozen Fire that day but the race was devalued a bit with the poor running of the favourite and one time Derby jolly Twice Over (subsequently found to have had a 'problem').
Ryan Moore has chosen Tartan Bearer and of the two he looks the more likely but it's Stoute's third entry that appeals most to me as the likely Derby winner......
Step forward Tajaweed, this horse looks to have all the right credentials and fits all the right stats and trends. He will go on the ground and his win at Chester in the Dee stakes (2 previous winners since 1999 including Stoute's Kris Kin) had class stamped all over it. He looked as though the step up in trip could only help him improve and I'm really confident he will stay the 1m 4f.
The horse he beat that day, Unnefer, has won a decent contest since and come Saturday I think Tajaweed will be crowned King of Epsom. The minor setback he had midweek has been sorted and, if anything, has helped us because we can now get 10/1 instead of the 6's it would have been. Every cloud and all that...
Last word goes to Kieran Fallon who was quoted as saying 'he would choose Tajaweed' if he was given the choice of the field. If it's good enough for Kieran it's good enough for me!
Selection- Tajaweed.
Danger- Casual Conquest.
Each Way- Alessandro Volta.
posted by Gavin at
12:25
1 Comments:
dear Matt
we need you advice today...please
not much luck yesterday with gavin
thanks
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