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Sunday, 18 May 2008

System Review: Favourites Phenomenon

Systems, dear reader, are my favourite means of making money from my betting. The rationale behind this should be obvious: if something has proven to work in the past, then why shouldn't it work in the future?

An equally obvious response to this is that some systems can be perceived as back fitted. That is, there are no logical reasons for the system rules, and therefore the creator was merely using historical info to come up with something with a positive number in the profit and loss column.

Occasionally, these 'systems' can continue to make money because there may be 'hidden' logic, or reasons that are not at first obvious. But, generally, if a system doesn't have logic to its ruleset, then it's a piece of poo...

So, having pilloried a badly written system with false claims last week, I approach these two systems with a little more optimism.

Favourites Phenomenon (FP hereafter for, I hope, obvious reasons!) is the system we'll look at this week.

FP is a backing system that relies on its staking plan as much as its rules. It's what's known as a 'Stop at a Winner' (or SAW) system, which means, erm, you stop after you've backed a winner. Now there's nothing new about this staking strategy, but aligned with the right methodology or system, it can be a very powerful approach.

First up with the FP, it has a refreshingly candid and unhyperbolic sales page . A rarity still, but I think the future of systems sales pages.

FP does not promise to make you a million in your first month using it. But it does systematically raise and then dispel a majority of concerns you might have about using the system. (Incidentally, if you have a question that isn't covered, the author encourages you to share it with him, and he will reply).

Moreover, it's gotten excellent results over a sustained period of time. When you sign up, you can see the results for the last two and a half years, and the results for May are 15 points profit, using Level 3.

Profit for the month is less if you'd used Levels 1 or 2.

"Levels Matt? What are you talking about?", I hear you ask. (At least, I thought I heard you ask...)

Sorry, I should have mentioned: in order to make this accessible to beginners and experienced punters alike, and to risk averse and venture capitalists (!) alike, there are three levels of approach.

Level 1 is for beginners or risk averse punters, and has the earliest 'stop loss' point. Levels 2 and 3 are gradually more aggressive in their stop loss points.

The biggest profits are to be had with Level 3, but also the greatest exposure to a heavy loss day. These do happen, but are mercifully rare (roughly two or three a year).

FP has been on the market for around a month now, and it has already received very strong feedback from one of the more independent betting sites on the web, Secret Betting Club.

Furthermore, the system author (Matt Watson) has been in regular touch with me since before I started the blog, when I was a vendor of TrainerTrackStats way back in 2006. He has consistently demonstrated an insight into his racing, and is a shrewd guy.

He offers a full money back refund with no quibbles, which as you know, is a pre-condition for me reviewing any product. And, moreover, he is extremely approachable. So, if you're not sure about anything (and I mean anything!), then simply drop Matt a line and he will come back to you with a reply.

[I know this because I've harrassed him a couple of times myself in the last fortnight!]

Anyway, the nature of the system is such that I cannot post the selections ahead of time, but I will post daily with an update. We are trying to win a point a day, and we stop as soon as that goal is achieved.

In order to win our point, we back horses under certain conditions. At a given point, if things have not gone in our favour, we wipe our metaphorical mouth, and wait for tomorrow.

FP comes complete with a calculator to work out whether you should be playing on a given day, and what your potential liability will be.

If you can't wait for the results this week, or if you just want to check out the sales page, you can do so here:


Today, after a couple of early frustrations, I made my point profit on Race 6, and retired to the beer garden for the afternoon. My liability was a manageable £75.80 for my target profit of £10.

Stay tuned during the week for further updates.

******

Next up (probably next week) will be the Frontline Lay system which, as the name suggests, is a lay product. I received an email inviting me to promote this about two weeks ago, but didn't think anything of it. (The truth is, as you might expect, I receive a lot of such emails).

Having not heard of the author before, I was a tad guarded about the system. However, I've since received an email from a regular correspondent telling me that he is using it with some success. So I thought I'd track it on here for a time.

The sales pitch is a little novice-y, but that's irrelevant really. We're after performance over pitch every time!

As I write this, I'm awaiting a reply from Ross with a review copy, so will revert as soon as I can on this.

Hope you've had a great weekend!
Matt

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