Friday Fun & Saturday Preview
No loopholes, it seems, dear reader, in Betfair. At least judging by your comments. I think we'll leave the debate there, and move on...
Nottingham proved a good place to bet today, with the 10/11 favourite well beaten as suggested in the opener, but my selection plum last from what I thought was an ideal draw in 14. Given that the last four home were drawn 11-14 of 14, I feared the worst. However, three of them were 50/1, 66/1 and 80/1.
In the next race, I was sweet on the favourite, who obliged at a tight evens. No cream there for the average punter. My opposition of Readily was matched on course, as she was sent off 7/1 before finishing a nicely stuffed 10th.
In the last race, I was surprised to see Bold Argument start at 15/2, which I considered too big, and availed myself of (over 10 on betfair!). Any earlier reservations about the draw bias evaporated, as 17 (of 17) beat 11 and 16.
Who needs the form book?! ;o)
On to tomorrow, and the Swinton Hurdle is the big race. 'Just' the 24 runners line up, and its tricky to say the least.
Some trends that will help us, from the last ten runnings:
10/10 were aged 4-6yo (cheerio to six old'uns)
8/10 were officially rated between 125 and 136 (nine classy horses, whose form is more exposed, are reluctantly eliminated: this is a race for the young improving types)
9/10 were placed or better in 50% or more of their races last season, and all won (two fail on this)
9/10 had had between 4 and 9 hurdle runs, which erases another one horse here
So, I'm quietly confident that the winner is on my list of six. But not sure where...
A four year old has not won since 2000, so I will reluctantly cross out Mamlook and Lazy Darren, leaving a quartet to conjure with. These are Blue Bajan, Working Title, I Hear A Symphony, and Raise Your Heart.
One other stat is that 8/10 carried 10-06 or less to win. A strict interpretation of the stats then would cross out Blue Bajan and Working Title, but - given they carry - a pound and two pounds over this threshold, I leave them in. [I never said this was a science!]
The four are 10/1 or bigger, so back them all win only. I will be and, when Mamlook or Lazy Darren wins, I'll be blubbing in the corner...
******
Just time for a spot of Friday Fun before I hit the pub... and this week, I've reverted to Family Guy to entertain us all... Its low grade, its American, and its pretty darned funny to boot! As you know, here at Nag3, I promote sensible betting with money that you can afford to lose... or this could happen! (yes, I know it repeats itself, but its almost worth watching twice!)
Good weekend one and all,
Matt
Nottingham proved a good place to bet today, with the 10/11 favourite well beaten as suggested in the opener, but my selection plum last from what I thought was an ideal draw in 14. Given that the last four home were drawn 11-14 of 14, I feared the worst. However, three of them were 50/1, 66/1 and 80/1.
In the next race, I was sweet on the favourite, who obliged at a tight evens. No cream there for the average punter. My opposition of Readily was matched on course, as she was sent off 7/1 before finishing a nicely stuffed 10th.
In the last race, I was surprised to see Bold Argument start at 15/2, which I considered too big, and availed myself of (over 10 on betfair!). Any earlier reservations about the draw bias evaporated, as 17 (of 17) beat 11 and 16.
Who needs the form book?! ;o)
******
On to tomorrow, and the Swinton Hurdle is the big race. 'Just' the 24 runners line up, and its tricky to say the least.
Some trends that will help us, from the last ten runnings:
10/10 were aged 4-6yo (cheerio to six old'uns)
8/10 were officially rated between 125 and 136 (nine classy horses, whose form is more exposed, are reluctantly eliminated: this is a race for the young improving types)
9/10 were placed or better in 50% or more of their races last season, and all won (two fail on this)
9/10 had had between 4 and 9 hurdle runs, which erases another one horse here
So, I'm quietly confident that the winner is on my list of six. But not sure where...
A four year old has not won since 2000, so I will reluctantly cross out Mamlook and Lazy Darren, leaving a quartet to conjure with. These are Blue Bajan, Working Title, I Hear A Symphony, and Raise Your Heart.
One other stat is that 8/10 carried 10-06 or less to win. A strict interpretation of the stats then would cross out Blue Bajan and Working Title, but - given they carry - a pound and two pounds over this threshold, I leave them in. [I never said this was a science!]
The four are 10/1 or bigger, so back them all win only. I will be and, when Mamlook or Lazy Darren wins, I'll be blubbing in the corner...
******
They race tomorrow at Ascot too, and its too hard for me. I reckon the middle of the track is likely to be the best place to be, and a 4-6yo has won the last eight runnings. No more than token selections are Al Khaleej and Fishfourcompliments, who have both got jockey bookings that imply they are expected to run well...******
Just time for a spot of Friday Fun before I hit the pub... and this week, I've reverted to Family Guy to entertain us all... Its low grade, its American, and its pretty darned funny to boot! As you know, here at Nag3, I promote sensible betting with money that you can afford to lose... or this could happen! (yes, I know it repeats itself, but its almost worth watching twice!)
Good weekend one and all,
Matt
Labels: Friday Fun
posted by Matt at
17:21
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
Links to this post:
Create a Link
<< Home