Favourites Phenomenon: Dark Clouds Gathering?

How often does it happen, dear reader, that you say something is simple and the very next day it kicks you in the teeth?

Not for nothing is my favourite saying, "there's many a slip 'twixt cup and lip", and it pays to exercise additional diligence when your cups are system rules and your lips are equine beasties.

But not with FP, it seems. To date, there have been very few slips, and none of them have resulted in spillage... which is to say in layman's terms that I slurped up my fourth point of the week today, from a possible four.

Today, I had to sweat a little more than the last couple of days, but not quite as much as on Sunday. When I say 'sweat', and when I ask in the teasing title whether the forecast had begun to turn nasty, I am actually trying to inject a hint of drama and intrigue into a system review that has, to this point, been the investment equivalent of boiling water.

Now, in fairness, it should be pointed out that the nature of this type of methodology is that they are characterized by winning days, but one should not lose sight of the impact a losing day can have.

Matt Watson, the system author, sensibly recommends a decent sized bank (which varies according to the level you intend to trade at), and a losing day would wipe out the easy pickings banked thus far.

So, a modicum of balance attempted, I'll report back again tomorrow on Day Five of the great water boiling road test!

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Tomorrow is the second day of Goodwood's early season meeting, and it will be interesting to see if the high draw bias over 1m1f maintains itself. Today's 13 runner handicap was won by the 9/2 TrainerFlatStats runner, McConnell, who was drawn 10 of 13. The places were taken by horses drawn 8 and 11 (the latter a 50/1 shot), and the fourth home was drawn 12.

The 1m1f race tomorrow is a 14 runner maiden fillies event, which normally shouts 'NO BET' at me. But I can't resist having the traps on my side, and I like Quirina to optimize her draw in the top stall (14 of 14). Dangers are likely to be Madame Hoi and Lush, but I'll take John Gosden's filly against this mob.

At Salisbury, it may pay to lean on the high side in the sprint races, so I'll be having a very small interest in Vanadium in the lady amateur riders' handicap (another race where I'd normally never wager in!).

Later on, Stamford Blue, who won here during a purple patch last season, and is well drawn for Ron Harris, could go well. He has actually won at the track three times; started his winning run at this time last season (here); and is back to a mark below his top winning handicap rating. Current form means a leap of faith is required, but given a fair few positives, he's worth a small each way tickle.

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If you prefer a more mundane (and more likely) winning wager tomorrow, you might prefer to check out the Favourites Phenomenon system...

Until next time...
Matt

p.s. Breaking News: TFS just had its second winner of the day at 11/4 (from 7/2), to complement McConnell at 9/2 (from 15/2). Although the guide is no longer available to purchase, you can subscribe for a very fair monthly fee, and you get 7 days free trial. Click here to take advantage of my generosity!