Draw Specialists...
Back in the saddle, dear reader, after a few days away from it all in sunny Dorset. And what a few days they were!
The Guineas preview may not have been nearly as amusing as last year's Fudd-story, but it was more lucrative for sure.
From a quartet on the shortlist in each of the boys and girls races, we found the forecast in each. In fairness, though I tipped up Henrythenavigator, the 11/1 winner of the colts' race, I ducked Natagora in the fillies' equivalent, as she was a shorter price than many of the recent winners. I think she is a very good fast lass, in the mould of Attraction, Mark Johnston's flyer who led from trap to line in 2004.
As for Henry, well the front two came clear (he pipped New Approach), and both look above average to my relatively untutored eye (I'm a stats man, rather than a seasoned interpreter of collateral form). That connections believe the winner will improve significantly for the run marks our Henry down as a miler to follow.
And a mile is the trip for this one: he'll not stay the Derby trip, despite the curious noises coming from the O'Brien camp. Save your money for something else of theirs (Kingdom of Naples).
A quick update on TFS, as always. My regular reader (hello mum!) will know that I am very fond of the punter's motto:
After a good run expect a bad run; after a bad run expect a good run.
And so it was that after a luckless fortnight or so, once Ephorus broke the spell, so the winners came again. And how!
As one TFS subscriber wrote,
"As you know i've emailed you a fair bit since joining. sorry ;-) . I probably joined at a really iffy time , loser after loser but kept the faith and am well happy with proponent, slugger o toole, redolent and just jimmy. Now i'm playing with their money which is a far healthier position. Also as i'm usually out have been playing at betfair sp, which seems to be going really well :-) Heres to the future."
Since Ephorus won at 6/1 for us last Wednesday, we've cheered home winners at (in chronological order): 13/8, 4/1, 11/2, 8/1, 11/1, and today's only runner, the 7/1 shot Just Jimmy.
In fact, the other potential qualifier, who failed on price as a 16/1 shot (we only bet 14/1 or shorter), finished 2nd beaten a short head.
The TFS guide has been withdrawn from sale, as I said it would, due to some eejits who choose to spoil things for others by giving away my copyright for free (since addressed both logistically and legally, I'm pleased to report).
You can get TFS by email subscription from the page, www.trainerflatstats.com, but we're probably about to head for another losing run... ;o)
Results to date are here: www.trainerflatstats.com/TFS2008results.html
(over £500 up to £20 stakes since the start of the season...)
******
Although the jumps season has now finished, there is still a fair bit of Summer jumping on the screens. And so it was that I was lapsing my discipline tonight and wagering from race to race (naughty boy!).
In the last at Exeter, I saw the familiar (to me at least, and probably to some of you) name of Felix de Giles on the favourite. The horse had form, though had been second three of his last five starts (normally alarm bells ring in these cases).
But the jockey is class, and this was a race for conditional jockeys (i.e. apprentices).
So it was that coming to the last, de Giles' mount was trying to add to his silver medal collection, but the savvy Felix was having none of it, kidding and cajoling the nag to the front where it mattered.
I tell you this because I encourage you to keep an eye out for this boy. Better judges than me think he's going to be top drawer. His guv'nor is none other than Nicky Henderson, who doesn't normally trouble himself with mediocrity.
He's a jock on his way to the top...
It's draw bias nirvana tomorrow, as not one but two of the strongest stall position influences feature in a few hours of favoured trap heaven! Chester (low) and Beverley (high) are tough to top when it comes to influential starting positions, which are obviously accentuated the shorter the trip.
At Chester first, and ignoring the opening juvenile event (I'd go for Doncaster Rover if pressed), the lowest drawn four all look to have a squeak. At the odds, I like King Orchisios (though he's the likely favourite) and King Of Swords. The other two with low draws are Paul Green and Invincible Force.
But I'll be having a small perm exacta (these four to be first or second in any order) as well.
Over at Beverley, the 2.30 presents Namir with a great opportunity to optimise his rail draw in the 11 box. He has course and distance 'previous', and will be on the premises for sure.
Again, the perm exacta comes to hand, and I'll play Namir with Glasshoughton and the redoubtable Pawan (ridden, and trained, by the redoubtable Ann Stokell).
Blue Jack has the rail in the 4.45, another sprint, and is worth a second glance, but perhaps of most interest - numerically at least - is the penultimate race, a seven furlong sprint.
Sixteen runners contest, and obviously we're going high. Princess Maria, having had three runs in maidens, now contests a weakish handicap for the first time, and she has the rail berth in 16. Interestingly enough, she is flanked in boxes 15 and 14 by Lu's Woman and Piverina, both of whom are also having their handicap debuts, following three runs in maidens.
Given that there is only one other runner in the entire field to which this comment applies and, furthermore, that the handlers of this tricky trio are Richard Fahey, Mick Easterby and David Barron respectively, I'll look no further for my wagers.
I expect all three to improve markedly on ostensible form demonstrated to date, and one will pick up the prize. No idea which though. I'll go win only on all three, and perm them for the forecast (incidentally, four permed is 12 bets and three permed is six bets, if that helps).
Finally on tomorrow's racing, it's back to Chester for a preview of the Chester Cup, an apparently insoluble handicap over two and a quarter miles.
Some trends from the last ten years to potentially assist in the winner finding process (though my record in the race is terrible):
1. 10/10 aged 4 to 7 (ciao ciao to 4 horses, including last year's winner, Greenwich Meantime)
2. 10/10 were having their seasonal debut or had just one run prior to winning here (Shipmaster sets sail)
3. 10/10 had won over 2 miles or more, either on flat or over jumps (another three are scratched)
4. 10/10 were having their first look at Chester OR had been placed at least once here before (it's cheery-bye to yet four more)
These four universal truths of the last decade pare the 17 runner field down to a more manageable five. Alas, thereafter, it gets more difficult and we still have the joint favourites in that quintet.
I happen to believe that in a big field end to end gallop, low drawn horses are at a distinct advantage, even over this marathon trip. Even though 'only' seven of the last ten winners were drawn in single figures, closer inspection of the other three shows that last year (where the first three home had double digit draws) they went lightning fast and broke the course record; in 2005, six of the last seven home were drawn double figured; and in 1999, Rainbow High also set a then course record.
So, barring track records, I expect a horse drawn one to nine to win. From our remaining five, it's au revoir to the two classy jumps horses Fair Along and Sentry Duty, which leaves the three at the bottom of the handicap, Highland Legacy, Missoula, and Double Banded.
Missoula was given a freshener over hurdles a couple of months ago, and Messrs Bell and Dunlop Senior have employed Jamie Spencer and Kerrin McEvoy respectively for the 4yo's.
I can't split these three, so will split my stake across them 40/40/20 on Highland, Double and Missoula respectively.
Like I say, my luck in this race is shocking. But it has to change some time... Doesn't it?!
Matt
The Guineas preview may not have been nearly as amusing as last year's Fudd-story, but it was more lucrative for sure.
From a quartet on the shortlist in each of the boys and girls races, we found the forecast in each. In fairness, though I tipped up Henrythenavigator, the 11/1 winner of the colts' race, I ducked Natagora in the fillies' equivalent, as she was a shorter price than many of the recent winners. I think she is a very good fast lass, in the mould of Attraction, Mark Johnston's flyer who led from trap to line in 2004.
As for Henry, well the front two came clear (he pipped New Approach), and both look above average to my relatively untutored eye (I'm a stats man, rather than a seasoned interpreter of collateral form). That connections believe the winner will improve significantly for the run marks our Henry down as a miler to follow.
And a mile is the trip for this one: he'll not stay the Derby trip, despite the curious noises coming from the O'Brien camp. Save your money for something else of theirs (Kingdom of Naples).
******
A quick update on TFS, as always. My regular reader (hello mum!) will know that I am very fond of the punter's motto:
After a good run expect a bad run; after a bad run expect a good run.
And so it was that after a luckless fortnight or so, once Ephorus broke the spell, so the winners came again. And how!
As one TFS subscriber wrote,
"As you know i've emailed you a fair bit since joining. sorry ;-) . I probably joined at a really iffy time , loser after loser but kept the faith and am well happy with proponent, slugger o toole, redolent and just jimmy. Now i'm playing with their money which is a far healthier position. Also as i'm usually out have been playing at betfair sp, which seems to be going really well :-) Heres to the future."
Since Ephorus won at 6/1 for us last Wednesday, we've cheered home winners at (in chronological order): 13/8, 4/1, 11/2, 8/1, 11/1, and today's only runner, the 7/1 shot Just Jimmy.
In fact, the other potential qualifier, who failed on price as a 16/1 shot (we only bet 14/1 or shorter), finished 2nd beaten a short head.
The TFS guide has been withdrawn from sale, as I said it would, due to some eejits who choose to spoil things for others by giving away my copyright for free (since addressed both logistically and legally, I'm pleased to report).
You can get TFS by email subscription from the page, www.trainerflatstats.com, but we're probably about to head for another losing run... ;o)
Results to date are here: www.trainerflatstats.com/TFS2008results.html
(over £500 up to £20 stakes since the start of the season...)
******
Although the jumps season has now finished, there is still a fair bit of Summer jumping on the screens. And so it was that I was lapsing my discipline tonight and wagering from race to race (naughty boy!).
In the last at Exeter, I saw the familiar (to me at least, and probably to some of you) name of Felix de Giles on the favourite. The horse had form, though had been second three of his last five starts (normally alarm bells ring in these cases).
But the jockey is class, and this was a race for conditional jockeys (i.e. apprentices).
So it was that coming to the last, de Giles' mount was trying to add to his silver medal collection, but the savvy Felix was having none of it, kidding and cajoling the nag to the front where it mattered.
I tell you this because I encourage you to keep an eye out for this boy. Better judges than me think he's going to be top drawer. His guv'nor is none other than Nicky Henderson, who doesn't normally trouble himself with mediocrity.
He's a jock on his way to the top...
******
It's draw bias nirvana tomorrow, as not one but two of the strongest stall position influences feature in a few hours of favoured trap heaven! Chester (low) and Beverley (high) are tough to top when it comes to influential starting positions, which are obviously accentuated the shorter the trip.
At Chester first, and ignoring the opening juvenile event (I'd go for Doncaster Rover if pressed), the lowest drawn four all look to have a squeak. At the odds, I like King Orchisios (though he's the likely favourite) and King Of Swords. The other two with low draws are Paul Green and Invincible Force.
But I'll be having a small perm exacta (these four to be first or second in any order) as well.
Over at Beverley, the 2.30 presents Namir with a great opportunity to optimise his rail draw in the 11 box. He has course and distance 'previous', and will be on the premises for sure.
Again, the perm exacta comes to hand, and I'll play Namir with Glasshoughton and the redoubtable Pawan (ridden, and trained, by the redoubtable Ann Stokell).
Blue Jack has the rail in the 4.45, another sprint, and is worth a second glance, but perhaps of most interest - numerically at least - is the penultimate race, a seven furlong sprint.
Sixteen runners contest, and obviously we're going high. Princess Maria, having had three runs in maidens, now contests a weakish handicap for the first time, and she has the rail berth in 16. Interestingly enough, she is flanked in boxes 15 and 14 by Lu's Woman and Piverina, both of whom are also having their handicap debuts, following three runs in maidens.
Given that there is only one other runner in the entire field to which this comment applies and, furthermore, that the handlers of this tricky trio are Richard Fahey, Mick Easterby and David Barron respectively, I'll look no further for my wagers.
I expect all three to improve markedly on ostensible form demonstrated to date, and one will pick up the prize. No idea which though. I'll go win only on all three, and perm them for the forecast (incidentally, four permed is 12 bets and three permed is six bets, if that helps).
******
Finally on tomorrow's racing, it's back to Chester for a preview of the Chester Cup, an apparently insoluble handicap over two and a quarter miles.
Some trends from the last ten years to potentially assist in the winner finding process (though my record in the race is terrible):
1. 10/10 aged 4 to 7 (ciao ciao to 4 horses, including last year's winner, Greenwich Meantime)
2. 10/10 were having their seasonal debut or had just one run prior to winning here (Shipmaster sets sail)
3. 10/10 had won over 2 miles or more, either on flat or over jumps (another three are scratched)
4. 10/10 were having their first look at Chester OR had been placed at least once here before (it's cheery-bye to yet four more)
These four universal truths of the last decade pare the 17 runner field down to a more manageable five. Alas, thereafter, it gets more difficult and we still have the joint favourites in that quintet.
I happen to believe that in a big field end to end gallop, low drawn horses are at a distinct advantage, even over this marathon trip. Even though 'only' seven of the last ten winners were drawn in single figures, closer inspection of the other three shows that last year (where the first three home had double digit draws) they went lightning fast and broke the course record; in 2005, six of the last seven home were drawn double figured; and in 1999, Rainbow High also set a then course record.
So, barring track records, I expect a horse drawn one to nine to win. From our remaining five, it's au revoir to the two classy jumps horses Fair Along and Sentry Duty, which leaves the three at the bottom of the handicap, Highland Legacy, Missoula, and Double Banded.
Missoula was given a freshener over hurdles a couple of months ago, and Messrs Bell and Dunlop Senior have employed Jamie Spencer and Kerrin McEvoy respectively for the 4yo's.
I can't split these three, so will split my stake across them 40/40/20 on Highland, Double and Missoula respectively.
Like I say, my luck in this race is shocking. But it has to change some time... Doesn't it?!
Matt
posted by Matt at
20:29
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