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Friday, 11 April 2008

Systems Update: Good Day For TTS/TFS Followers

Slings and arrows, dear reader, are the units of currency of Shakespearian outrageous fortune. Or so the Elizabethan blighter would have us believe...

And it so it was that after a couple of quiet days across the TrainerTrackStats (TTS) / TrainerFlatStats (TFS) portfolio, the calm was supplanted by storm today. And a happy, lucrative storm at that.

TTS followers are used to good days and - in fairness - the occasional stinker. TFS followers have all of this to come.

So what happened?? Well, there were three potential qualifiers for TTS:

Prince De Beury and Hora both in the same race at Ascot, and Mamlook later on the same card.

The record shows that Hora won at 8/1, with his slightly better fancied stablemate, the Prince coming home 3rd at 4/1.

Mamlook didn't qualify because he was a 20/1 shot. Which is a great pity: he won too! (Well done to the two of you who emailed to tell me you'd backed him, one of you at 30 on betfair).

If you're new to my ramblings and wafflings, you can see the TTS season to date here. [It's a big file, so give it a minute; two or three if you're on dial up].

TFS, not to be outdone, had six potential qualifiers, which performed as follows:

Doncaster:
2.40 Silver Rime (2nd at 5/1)
2.40 Horatio Carter (non-qualifier, 33/1 no hoper, the search party has not yet found him!)
4.25 He's A Humbug (non-qualifier, well beaten at 18/1)

Musselburgh:
4.15 Tajweed (won at evens)
4.50 Ansells Pride (won at 5/1)
4.50 Frank Crow (poor 7th at 8/1)

Two winners at evens and 5/1 and a 5/1 2nd from 4 qualifiers. That's the joy that TFS can bring to your life :o) [Ok, so I'm slapping it on a bit thick there, but you see what I'm getting at!]

The season's results to date can be seen here.

But I should tell you that not everyone is enjoying the ride. A doubtless otherwise fine gentleman (ahem, excuse me) sent me this:

I THINK YOUR TAKING THE PISS WITH THE LOAD OF RUBBISH YOU SENT ME AND WILL BE IN TOUCH WITH PAY PAL FOR A FULL REFUND IF THATS THE WAY YOU MAKE A LIVING YOUR ON TO A LOOSER

Now, everyone knows that if a refund is required, a refund can be had: that's the deal! And in this case, I can confirm that the dear chap has already been reacquainted with his folding.

But this case irritated me because between buying the guide at 8.20pm on 8th April and requesting a refund at, er, 3.49AM on 10th April, a staggering 31 hours and 29 minutes had elapsed.

Not only that, but the huge tally of ONE race horse had run under the TFS banner, it finishing fourth at 5/2. Barely catastrophic.

My personal annoyance at this on one side, the point is that if you need your next bet to be a winner, then TFS probably isn't for you. In fact, if you need your next bet to be a winner, you should be buying groceries with your stake money.

I don't condone betting more than you can afford. I believe in responsible gambling.

Every runner cannot be a winner if you take a statistical approach (or even if you don't). That is very clear with TFS and I hope that all of you fine people who tune into this wordy webbie understand that.

TTS has now had 190 winners this season (from 874 bets), and a staggering 454 placed in the first three (obviously from the same number of bets).

Given that TTS did this last season too (final score: 220 winners and 497 placed in first three from 969), there is no reason to believe TFS will not follow in the same vein.

OK, the soap box is safely tucked away, and I shall endeavour to retain a positive bearing henceforth.

Anyway, you can still get a copy of TrainerFlats by clicking here.

Or you can sign up for the daily emails by clicking here.

I'm off to meet my chums for a glass or two. Beer doesn't drink itself you know!

ttfn
Matt

1 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Some affs do a bad job for you as they are touting about 20/1 winner today (Pampas Cat). Yes, he won but he didn't qualify according to the rules.
In every race there MUST be a winner and it was just a (nice)coincidence (not the rule) the trainer was mentioned in your e-book. For instance on 12th April Sir Winston didn't manage to win and was available also at 20/1.
JD

16 April 2008 20:20  

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