Sandown Preview
Sometimes, dear reader, a reasoned process of elimination can distill a fiendishly difficult looking handicap chase into a somewhat more soluble puzzle. A case in point is the Grand National, where the sensible application of statistics and trends creates a shortlist that usually contains the winner.
Alas, for the big race at Sandown today, this is not the case. Despite there being some solid trends, the process of elimination whittles the runners down to a shortlist of... none!
So, no horse can win the bet365 Gold Cup? Well, this is obviously preposterous, so let's have a look and see which trend may flex to allow us to locate the winner.
A whistlestop tour of the key stats for the past ten winners are thus:
10/10 were officially rated between 129 and 152 (and nine of them between 129 and 145)
8/10 carried 10-10 or less
8/10 were aged 7, 8 or 9
9/10 ran 5-9 times that season before the race
7/10 had already won that season
8/10 had run in the last month (including the last seven winners)
8/10 placed in first 3 last time out OR unseated in the Grand National
The favourite, Iris de Balme, looks to have a good chance of emulating Hot Weld who last year won the Scottish Grand National the week before winning this race, and although I was going to strike through him for being rated only 117, I noticed that he is due to go up 27 pounds in future for his win last week.
This would put him on 144, within the official rating bracket of all of the last ten winners. He carries 10-00 (09-07 actually if his jockey can make the weight: its a long time since I was 9 and a half stone!); he's an 8yo with 5 runs to date this season; he has won twice already this term (and placed two more times); and he ran and won in the last month.
So... Iris de Balme is an unoriginal selection, but the only one who ticks all the boxes.
At around 6/1 on betfair (and 6/4 a place) I think there are many worse wagers today.
The previous race at 2.45, bet365 Celebration Chase, is clearly suffering from the season's elongated tail, with all the good horses having run at Punchestown or been put away for the season.
The fact is that the last five winners of this race (it's only been run seven times) had competed last time out in either the Grade 1 Champion Chase at Cheltenham or the Grade 1 Melling Chase at Aintree.
None of the 11 League One contenders can claim to be Championship (let along Premier League) material.
This is a swerve race, but if you must play, note the following:
6/7 were 8-10 years old
6/7 Officially rated 161+
5/7 had 5 or 6 runs prior to winning that season
There were NO last time out winners (but bear in mind all winners had run in much better races than these hairy ponies)
Monet's Garden (only one rated above 160) probably has most going for him, but I won't be wagering on this race.
Over at Ripon, I reckon the draw favours high boxes, though those closest to the far rail (i.e. drawn low and able to get the rail position) have chances too.
Princess Ellis may try to make all in the 3.05, from the top stall. But I reckon she'll be pegged back, and I'll be taking Highland Warrior to do the pegging. I'll also be having a small interest on the well drawn Steelcut and Sandwith, both of whom are tempting each way.
The top weight, Judge N'Jury, is trained by our man, R A Harris, and he may be best of the low drawn runners.
Good luck wherever you're playing today...
Matt
Alas, for the big race at Sandown today, this is not the case. Despite there being some solid trends, the process of elimination whittles the runners down to a shortlist of... none!
So, no horse can win the bet365 Gold Cup? Well, this is obviously preposterous, so let's have a look and see which trend may flex to allow us to locate the winner.
A whistlestop tour of the key stats for the past ten winners are thus:
10/10 were officially rated between 129 and 152 (and nine of them between 129 and 145)
8/10 carried 10-10 or less
8/10 were aged 7, 8 or 9
9/10 ran 5-9 times that season before the race
7/10 had already won that season
8/10 had run in the last month (including the last seven winners)
8/10 placed in first 3 last time out OR unseated in the Grand National
The favourite, Iris de Balme, looks to have a good chance of emulating Hot Weld who last year won the Scottish Grand National the week before winning this race, and although I was going to strike through him for being rated only 117, I noticed that he is due to go up 27 pounds in future for his win last week.
This would put him on 144, within the official rating bracket of all of the last ten winners. He carries 10-00 (09-07 actually if his jockey can make the weight: its a long time since I was 9 and a half stone!); he's an 8yo with 5 runs to date this season; he has won twice already this term (and placed two more times); and he ran and won in the last month.
So... Iris de Balme is an unoriginal selection, but the only one who ticks all the boxes.
At around 6/1 on betfair (and 6/4 a place) I think there are many worse wagers today.
The previous race at 2.45, bet365 Celebration Chase, is clearly suffering from the season's elongated tail, with all the good horses having run at Punchestown or been put away for the season.
The fact is that the last five winners of this race (it's only been run seven times) had competed last time out in either the Grade 1 Champion Chase at Cheltenham or the Grade 1 Melling Chase at Aintree.
None of the 11 League One contenders can claim to be Championship (let along Premier League) material.
This is a swerve race, but if you must play, note the following:
6/7 were 8-10 years old
6/7 Officially rated 161+
5/7 had 5 or 6 runs prior to winning that season
There were NO last time out winners (but bear in mind all winners had run in much better races than these hairy ponies)
Monet's Garden (only one rated above 160) probably has most going for him, but I won't be wagering on this race.
Over at Ripon, I reckon the draw favours high boxes, though those closest to the far rail (i.e. drawn low and able to get the rail position) have chances too.
Princess Ellis may try to make all in the 3.05, from the top stall. But I reckon she'll be pegged back, and I'll be taking Highland Warrior to do the pegging. I'll also be having a small interest on the well drawn Steelcut and Sandwith, both of whom are tempting each way.
The top weight, Judge N'Jury, is trained by our man, R A Harris, and he may be best of the low drawn runners.
Good luck wherever you're playing today...
Matt
posted by Matt at
10:17
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