Not Just Any Old Tom, Dick Or Harry...

Part four, dear reader, in a series of six trainers to follow this flat season. And we are talking top drawer trainers here. Not any old Tom, Dick or Harry makes this super sextet.

In fact, there aren't any Dicks or Harry's here. But there is a Tom. Tom Dascombe to be precise. And he may just be the hottest trainer in the ranks right now...

Having been a journeyman jockey (about seventh choice jockey at Martin Pipe's stable), Tom learnt his business from some of the best in the game.

Quite aside from what he was taught by Pipe, which must have been stacks given that the 'Wellington Wizard' (as Pipe was known) was a mile ahead of his time, and most other trainers are still playing catch up with his methods.

Dascombe then spent three years as assistant trainer to a fellow I hold in the highest regards (and you may not have heard of), Ralph Beckett.

Finally, and perhaps most significantly of all, TD was lucky enough to spend two years learning from one of the best trainers (if not the best) on the planet, South African Mike de Kock.

Taking this collective wisdom and applying it to his first bunch of nags in 2006, he registered 12 winners from just 16 horses. In 2007, he banged in 26.

This season has started off staggeringly, with Dascombe having recorded nine winners from just 22 runners, a strike rate of 41%.

Actually, scratch that. Because his sole runner today, Desert Dreamer, won the 6.50 at Kempton tonight at 15/8.

So he's now 10 from 23 for a 43.4% strike rate!

The word is out on Tom, but he's going to hit the back of the net many more times this season, and you should look out for EVERYTHING he runs!

I'm so impressed that I'm seriously considering getting a syndicate horse with him. But more on that in a few weeks time...

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Moving on, and I need to make a clarification regarding TrainerFlatStats, regarding the selection process for qualifiers.

It seems that the boy horse / girl horse thing is causing one or two confusions. Many users have written to me thanking me for winners yesterday at 9/2 and today at 5/1. But the reality is that, although their trainers were the right ones, and they were under 14/1, both were fillies (female horses) and therefore did not qualify.

[There were only two qualifiers yesterday, one winning at 3/1, and no qualifiers today.]

So.... a quick lesson on establishing the sex of the qualifier.

1. Check the race at www.racingpost.co.uk for a qualifier
2. If you see a horse that matches the criteria, click the horse name
3. You will see this screen (click to enlarge)



4. To the right of the name, look by the age (i.e. 7-y-o), birth date and colour, for a letter.
5. If it is c(olt), g(elding) or h(orse), you have a bet.
6. If it is f(illy), or m(are) it is NO BET.

So, no runners today and therefore no winners; one winner yesterday (3/1) and not two from two runners; and one qualifier tomorrow at Leicester.

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Aintree Thursday Preview

A few words on Aintree's card tomorrow, where equine superstars Kauto Star and Inglis Drever will be going to the well once more - among many others.

The trends are not nearly as strong at Aintree as at Cheltenham, simply because most horses are aimed at the West Country March meeting, not the Liverpool April meeting, and often horses are either 'over the top' or just not in peak form.

No matter: let's have a quick squint anyway. (I'm indebted to Weatherby's for this information, it is not my research)...

2.00 All four winners have been 1st or 2nd at the meeting before is interesting, but Inglis Drever is only 1 from 4 at the track (and that back in 2003!). Oppose the Drever.

I'll be preying for a return to form for Chief Dan George, who will sew up my local (350 odd entry) ten to follow competition if he wins. He won here last year, so clearly likes the place.

2.35 Kauto Star must surely win, but he's not a punting price. Monet's Garden is respected even though I detest his trainer...

3.10 15 of the last 18 winners won more than once prior to coming here, so that leaves just Binocular and Celestial Halo. Binocular finished 2nd in a race where the vast majority of runners were older (he was getting an allowance) and I have a suspicion that the form is stronger. It's the Bin for me.

3.45 Oh boy... here we go again, those mad farmer fools faffing and flapping and flailing and failing and falling and f&%$ing up our flacefots. Ok, got that off my chest... Who might win? Who really cares... (usual apologies to any readers who may also be members of the Counryside Alliance).

Key Stats:
- 14 from last 15 winners were in first four in the betting
- Irish only won once from last 25 years
- Classy 2m4f-3m former handicap chasers have won the last eight runnings of the race

Christy Beamish is as strong a fancy as you can have in a race like this, with Thisthatantother to chase him home.

4.20 Novices have triumphed in 5 from the past 6 renewals of this race, so we'll go with them. Five out of six carried 11 stone or less to victory. I'll look to Leslingtaylor (beat Tidal Bay earlier in the season!) and Desert Quest.

4.55 7/4 about Franchoek who, as a 4yo, must defy the 0 wins from 26 runs stat! Not for me. 5 and 6 yo's have won the last ten runnings. Group Captain for me, because I love Alan King, but Whiteoak is respected.

5.30 If you need to get out on this race, good luck. Let's have a quick peek anyway... Look for a horse who has already won this season (removes 8 from 22).

Ten of the last 19 winners missed Cheltenham, so - tenuous as this is - we'll go with it. Down to eleven. 8 from last ten winners carried 11 stone or less. Still leaves us with nine.

Seven of last eight were 10/1 to 25/1, so I'll go (very tentatively) with Gustavo.

To be honest, I'll be keeping my powder mostly dry at Aintree tomorrow for the (hopefully) stronger trends on Friday and Saturday.

Good luck to you, and don't forget to check out Tom Dascombe and TrainerFlatStats!

Matt