My 'Alternative' Ten To Follow
Well it seems to be the time of year, dear reader, when every man and his dog is sharing the ten horses they’re most looking forward to seeing this season. And, in the spirit of this, I thought I’d share mine with you.
After last season’s lucrative alternative group of ten, I’ll have another crack this season.
As caveated last season, this list has a chance to go one of two ways: I suspect that there will be no middle ground with this. Most of these horses have something to prove, and pretty much none of them will make it to the top of their class.
But, from a punting perspective, does that matter? The reason for picking these ten is that I think they may win once or twice at nice prices.
And you’ll notice a number of my favourite trainers represented here, as well as a slight concession to myself...
So, with that in mind, here we go:
1. Rough Sketch (Tr: Sir Mark Prescott; 3yo gelding)
A 3yo, with three runs in sprint maidens last season, Rough Sketch has all the classic hallmarks of a
By Arc winner, Peintre Celebre, out of a Saddlers’ Wells mare, this nag is clearly bred for at least middle distances.
So it will have been no surprise that he was well beaten in three starts from 6-7f.
Likely to start off a rating in the early 50’s, I’ll be surprised if this unit isn’t placed to run up a sequence in middle to long distance handicaps.
Beware though: if he wins first time out, expect him to be odds on for a couple of runs thereafter.
2. Astrodome (Tr: Sir Mark Prescott; 3yo gelding)
The same drill again here. It really is a pea shelling exercise for the
In the case of Astrodome, he makes the cut ahead of stablemates General Ting, Almamia and Lady Calido only because his sire, Domedriver, won me a stack of cash at the Breeders Cup a few years back! (Domedriver won the BC Mile, beating Rock of Gibraltar – desperate terrible ugly ride from Mick Kinane – at odds of 26/1).
I digress. Astrodome went from being beaten 22 lengths over 7f, to being beaten ‘only’ 9 lengths over a mile (8f).
He’s a half brother to Alambic who had a similar profile in 2006. That animal ended up winning six from seven in the space of as many weeks.
3. Hill Queen (Tr: Luca Cumani; 4yo filly)
Luca Cumani is known for taking a similar approach to Sir Mark in ‘warming up’ horses for handicaps.
In this case, however, I’m enrolling a slightly more exposed nag into my ten. Hill Queen had three runs in
Last season, she also had three runs, culminating in a fair bronze medal at Kempton.
She’s unquestionably not a superstar, but if / when she wins, you can expect that it will pay for the times she doesn’t.
4. Ridge Rose (Tr: Luca Cumani; 4yo filly)
More in the mould of the affable and wily Italian’s stings, Ridge Rose had three anonymous enough runs in maiden company last season, and will doubtless be tackling handicaps this term.
A half-sister to none other than 2007 Champion Hurdler Sublimity, she will be running over a mile and a half or further, and I doubt she’ll be long before winning.
5. Rapid City
Ok, so I probably do need to apologise for including this horse in my list, as I own a piece of him! However, I think he takes his place on merit.
He had a great first season for us, mopping up three AW races, and finishing 2nd another twice, before injuring himself when running quite well in the Newbury Spring Mile.
His first since was a month ago at Kempton, and the lack of pace there was totally against him.
Julia says she’s got nothing that can live with him on the gallops, and he’s going to be running at Great Leighs in their inaugural fixture this Sunday.
I’ll be there and cheering, and I’m hopeful that our patience last year with the injury will be vindicated over the course of the spring and summer.
6. Naughty Thoughts (Tr: Tom Dascombe; 4yo filly)
I’ve nailed my colours firmly to the Dascombe mast this season in my trainers to follow series, and I have nominated one of his mules here.
Forgive me for saying this, but I love the name… However, no nag makes my ten on nomenclature alone. No indeed!
This donkey won a seller for Andrew Turnell three starts back, and was bought in the ensuing auction by the shrewd Dascombe for about nine grand.
Since then, she won an apprentice handicap (for which I believe horses do not receive a penalty), and then finished 3rd in a soft ground Folkestone handicap.
Realistically rated on 60-odd, she is unlikely to be done with winning just yet, and is one to keep an eye on.
7. Brexca (Tr: Clive Cox; 3yo gelding)
Three runs in 2yo maidens at the end of last season, the final one of which was a runner up spot over a mile at Newbury.
He looks bred to be a miler (by Diktat out of a Distinctly North mare), and may cut some ice in decent handicaps this season.
8. Dunn’o (Tr: Clive Cox; 3yo gelding)
Another from the Cox yard, this one has also had just the three qualifying runs in maidens to date.
He ran with credit on all occasions, the worst of which was a 4 ½ length fourth behind Wednesday’s
He could be a nice horse and will probably be pitched at a good handicap at Royal Ascot.
Before then though, despite the option of handicaps, Cox has entered Dunn’o in a maiden at
9. Mullein (Tr: Ralph Beckett; 3yo filly)
Ralph is a great trainer, and I’m a big fan of him. It’s a pleasure to include one of his team here, and the filly in question is unexposed and could develop into a tidy animal.
Having finished close-ish in a very decent
Despite making her own running, she scorched four lengths clear by the line, and has obviously got further improvement to come.
I hope Beckett doesn’t go down the conditions / listed race route with her, because although I think she could win such races, we’ll get a better price in handicaps!
10. Rattan (Tr: ‘Sir’ Henry Cecil; 3yo colt)
No list of ten would be complete in my eyes without the living legend that is Henry Cecil.
Regular readers know the affection in which I hold this man. And its not just emotional, but financial too.
After a few seasons wallowing in the doldrums (and who wouldn’t given the awful turn of events that beset dear Henry in that time), he bounced back last season in Classic-winning fashion.
He’s right at the top of the trainer’s hot list at the moment, and I think Rattan might be a nice one to look out for.
Three juvenile runs all ended in silver medals, and it surely won’t be long before this imperially bred Khalid Abdulla gets a deserved gold. Or two.
So there it is – my ten plodders to follow. Probably no equine superstars in there, but quite possibly some good payoffs to be had for those who keep the faith.
I’ll track the progress of this bunch from time to time and, if you have any comments, or your own dark horses to follow for the season, why not add them as a comment to this article.
I’ve no monopoly on content here, my racing friends!
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Time now for a quick TrainerFlatStats update. After a slow start in March, when we finished £83 to £20 level stakes, April has been very pleasing to date. In fact this month, we’re up £242.
So, in total, that’s £325 up on the season to this point. Have you converted to TFS yet?
AND... THAT EXCLUDES TWO 20/1 WINNERS THAT WERE NON-QUALIFIERS ON THE 14/1 RULE (YES, IT HAPPENED AGAIN TODAY!!)
AND... that excludes 'unofficial' Yarmouth pick, Polar Force today... One happy Danish follower wrote:
Hi TFS,
Thanks, you're simply the best :-) I've got the "Always Brave" to 15.5/1 and went for your extra pick "Polar Force" at 19/1.
Just perfect :-)
Who am I to disagree?! ;)
Check out these completely independent blog posts here.
(They're actually quite embarrassing, but hell I'm starting to enjoy it!)
e-Guide: www.trainerflatstats.com
Monthly subscription: www.trainerflatstats.com/subscriptions.html
Results: www.trainerflatstats.com/tfs2008results.html
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A quick joke for you:
Thieves took advantage of the "Battle of Britain "Champions League match
Between Liverpool and Arsenal on Wednesday night to burgle two more
footballers' homes. The first unfortunate player was
Steven Gerrard. The crooks got away with countless items of football
memorabilia including many of Gerrard's own medals. Amongst the items
currently being hunted by police are:
2 FA Cup winners medals
FA Youth Cup winners medal
2 league cup winners medals
Champions league winners medal
Uefa cup winners medal
2 super cup winners medals
2 charity shield winners medals
They also took a number of personal awards including player of the year,
young player of the year and his much cherished MBE
The other unfortunate player to be targeted was Arsenal's Cesc Fabregas.
Thieves are thought to have escaped with a kettle and a toaster.
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Now I don’t normally do this, but in this case I had to make an exception. To help a little girl who has to undergo some horror treatment, a charity ‘closed auction’ is being held for some racing lots. The details are below:
Molly, age 2, is suffering from a retinoblastoma (cancer of the eye) and had her eye removed to prevent spread of cancer. Unfortunately the cancer had already spread into the fluid surrounding the brain and spine so Molly has had to begin chemotherapy.
Molly has received fabulous treatment from 3 hospitals (Dumfries Royal, Birmingham Children and Yorkhill Sick Children) all specialising in different aspects of her care. In an attempt to thank them and to support the families who spend a lot of time there Lockerbie & District Parent & Toddler Group are holding a number of fundraising events.
The lots up for grabs are:
A. Programme for 2008 Grand National signed by all the jockeys.
B. Signed autobiography of Timmy Murphy 2008 National Winner
C. Breeches belonging to Tony Dobbin (champion national hunt jockey & ‘the only jockey to win the Grand National on Monday’ who rode his last race on 12th April 2008) signed by himself, A. P. McCoy, Brian Harding and many others.
If you want to bid, you can do so by nominating the lot you are interested in, and the amount you’re prepared to bid, in an email to Lucy Mair (click here).
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Finally, it’s Friday, so it must be Friday Fun time…
Continuing in the children’s TV mould, here is a bit of Captain Pugwash. Contrary to urban legend, all of the crew did not have smutty innuendo names. Which personally I think is a great pity….
That’s all for today. Happy Friday, and if you haven’t got TFS yet, get with the programme!
posted by Matt at
16:51
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