Aintree Day Two Preview
Yesterday was tough, dear reader, for punters. Christy Beamish was a bright spot from a most unlikely source - the sh-amateur riders' hunter chase. In fairness, Julen Guerriero is about as good an amateur as you'll find in these races, so it was not that much of a surprise.
Elsewhere, defeats for Inglis Drever (as predicted here) and Kauto Star (as not predicted here) were followed by Franchoek (as predicted here).
The 50/1 winner in the last race actually aligned to the trends I'd outlined except the odds which were even longer. Well done to Sue Smith, who has had a fantastic month or so.
To today, and it doesn't get any easier!
Again, I am indebted to Weatherbys excellent analysis for most of this info (www.weatherbys.co.uk)
2.00 24 from 26 winners had won at least twice. 16 of last 17 winners had won over at least 3m.
17 from 19 winners were 7 or younger. This leaves Albertas Run and Battle Cry. Back them both.
2.35 Must have won at least twice and had at least four runs over hurdles. 10 from the last 14 winners had already recorded a victory over the trip of three miles.
Of the four that fit the bill, our Cheltenham friend Nenuphar Collonges will probably be outpaced here (he needed all of the trip at Chelt); Tazbar has every chance but is plenty short enough; Gone To Lunch may just be short of top class form; so I'll take a chance with course and distance winner Souffleur, who looks a cracking each way wager.
3.10 Forget about having a bet and instead enjoy the best chaser currently in training. Bar a fall, it would be absent minded to bet against Master Minded.
3.45 Ah, the Topham. Almost as pleasurable a race as the National to watch - I love this race. But, unlike the National, I can't remember ever having backed the winner! That won't stop me trying though...
8-10yo's only; less than 11 stone; prominent racers have the edge (like in the National itself); previous form over the specialist fences.
From quite a few possibles, I like Dunbrody Millar (who I'd have backed for the National if he'd made the cut), and Pak Jack, who never runs a bad race here (until today?!).
4.20 We'll go with a 5yo (won last five runnings) in the first four in the betting (13 of last 17), so that actually leaves us with no bet! In an open looking race, I'll try a VERY SMALL each way wager on Frank Crow at 300/1 (510 on betfair!)
4.55 Very tough race. Try 'The Misters', Mr Strachan and Mister Top Notch.
5.30 Alan King each way: Call Me A Legend, Over Sixty, and Divali Princess. In the three runnings of this race, he's had a winner and two 2nd places.
Good luck!
Matt
p.s. Get a FREE Timeform racecard for tomorrow here.
Elsewhere, defeats for Inglis Drever (as predicted here) and Kauto Star (as not predicted here) were followed by Franchoek (as predicted here).
The 50/1 winner in the last race actually aligned to the trends I'd outlined except the odds which were even longer. Well done to Sue Smith, who has had a fantastic month or so.
To today, and it doesn't get any easier!
Again, I am indebted to Weatherbys excellent analysis for most of this info (www.weatherbys.co.uk)
2.00 24 from 26 winners had won at least twice. 16 of last 17 winners had won over at least 3m.
17 from 19 winners were 7 or younger. This leaves Albertas Run and Battle Cry. Back them both.
2.35 Must have won at least twice and had at least four runs over hurdles. 10 from the last 14 winners had already recorded a victory over the trip of three miles.
Of the four that fit the bill, our Cheltenham friend Nenuphar Collonges will probably be outpaced here (he needed all of the trip at Chelt); Tazbar has every chance but is plenty short enough; Gone To Lunch may just be short of top class form; so I'll take a chance with course and distance winner Souffleur, who looks a cracking each way wager.
3.10 Forget about having a bet and instead enjoy the best chaser currently in training. Bar a fall, it would be absent minded to bet against Master Minded.
3.45 Ah, the Topham. Almost as pleasurable a race as the National to watch - I love this race. But, unlike the National, I can't remember ever having backed the winner! That won't stop me trying though...
8-10yo's only; less than 11 stone; prominent racers have the edge (like in the National itself); previous form over the specialist fences.
From quite a few possibles, I like Dunbrody Millar (who I'd have backed for the National if he'd made the cut), and Pak Jack, who never runs a bad race here (until today?!).
4.20 We'll go with a 5yo (won last five runnings) in the first four in the betting (13 of last 17), so that actually leaves us with no bet! In an open looking race, I'll try a VERY SMALL each way wager on Frank Crow at 300/1 (510 on betfair!)
4.55 Very tough race. Try 'The Misters', Mr Strachan and Mister Top Notch.
5.30 Alan King each way: Call Me A Legend, Over Sixty, and Divali Princess. In the three runnings of this race, he's had a winner and two 2nd places.
Good luck!
Matt
p.s. Get a FREE Timeform racecard for tomorrow here.
posted by Matt at
11:35
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
Links to this post:
Create a Link
<< Home