Grand National 2008 Preview Plus Bumper Bonuses!
In the words of the immortal Two Ronnies, dear reader, "In a packed programme tonight...", I'm taking a look at the Grand National and narrowing the 115 entries down to my shortlist of five or six.
I'll also be sharing with you number two on my list of trainers to follow this Flat season.
I'll be telling you about a website that I reckon is well worth a squint if you're into your horse racing (and, lets face it, you wouldn't be here if that wasn't true!).
And, as a special bonus, I'll be giving you free access to TrainerTrackStats, the jumps guide which has been generating impressive profits for its small army of loyal followers this Winter season.
So let's get cracking!
First up, by way of illustrating the fantastic winner finding potential of TrainerFlatStats, I'm giving you the chance to review TrainerTrackStats for free. There's no catch: simply click the link below to download the guide, and check it out.
Of course, when I say there's no catch, I'm obviously hoping that you'll be sufficiently impressed with the quality of the research, and its ability to find winners that you'll agree I'm virtually giving away TrainerFlatStats. I mean, how many products do you know that actually track their results, let alone are able to demonstrate a profit?
Results for TTS can be seen here:
If you like what you see, which I hope you will, then you can secure your copy of TrainerFlatStats here:
Enough already, and on with the show...
Next up is the much awaited (by me anyway!) preview of the Grand National, which see the tapes go up at 4.15pm next Saturday afternoon.
Last season I managed to find 33/1 winner Silver Birch, and I'm hopeful that I can do something similar this year but, for reasons that I'll come to, I'm less confident than usual...
First of all, let's consider the race at a high level, and then focus on the specific attributes that a Grand National winner should possess:
Point number one, and absolutely crucial, is that the Grand National is NOT a lottery. For sure, you need a little luck in running. But the unique demands of the race mean that many animals are simply not capable of winning it. By eliminating these from the start list, we will end up with a shortlist that, granted aforementioned fortune in transit, should isolate the winner.
When I say it's a unique race, what exactly do I mean? Well, I mean this: it's the longest race in the British calendar, it has the most runners in the calendar, it has the most fences to jump (with the exception of, I think, the cross country race at Cheltenham, that may actually be a fair trial for this race), and the fences are different from any other race (aside from the four or five other races run on the track).
The trends for the race are extremely strong, and support the notion that you need a certain type of horse to win the race. Enough bluster already Bisogno, cut to the chase (if you'll pardon the fence-jumping pun).
First up, the winner has been aged between 8 and 12 every year since 1940 (Bogskar), so if your fancy is not in that bracket, you can pretty much forget it.
From the 115 starters, less Royal Auclair, Alexander Taipan, and Patman Du Charmil who don't run, this removes eighteen.
Down to 94 confidently, but still plenty of whittling to be done!
Normally, my next trend would be that the horse must be due to carry 11 stone or less. I say normally, because this is the stat which terrifies me this season. I still cannot ignore its importance overall, but will leave it until last, so that you can see the shortlist before making this stipulation, and after...
Given that there's only six days to go until the race, its unlikely that any horse outside the top 60 in the weights will get to run, so we'll lose the rest. That's the 44 remaining runners from Livingstonebramble to the bottom of the handicap.
A round 50 left: trouble is, this represents most of the likely starters!
So next we'll look at experience. It goes without saying that you need an experienced animal to cope with the hustle and bustle of a race such as this. There are two criteria here for me: I won't entertain any horse with less than ten chase starts or any horse that is not into at least their third season jumping the bigger obstacles.
Just 37 left now, and I've (foolishly?) eliminated the warm favourite, Cloudy Lane, who is a second season chaser with just eleven chase runs to his name. I don't swerve him lightly, but I do swerve him.
Now let's smash another myth about the race. "You need a two mile chaser to win the National"... I'd like to swear at this point, but will refrain... It is advantageous to have a horse who can race close the pace (most of these are fairly one-paced, so they're not going to make up forty lengths in the last quarter mile), but you must have a horse with proven stamina.
If your horse hasn't won a chase over three miles or more, he ain't gonna win the National. Fact. So let's delete those that are doubtful / non-stayers.
Another five bite the dust, notably big ante-post mover, King Johns Castle, who has never won a chase beyond 2m1f, nor even a hurdle beyond 2m3f. He's got another two miles to go here... Might do it, but probably won't.
OK, continuing the logic theme, there are forty horses lining up here, so you need a beast that can handle the bustle. If it hasn't won a race with a dozen or more starters, it is unlikely to cope with thirty-nine antagonists!
Thirty still in with a squeak at this point, and time for a bit of anti-Gallic sentiment. Now, regular readers will know I'm something of a Francophile, which is to say I really rather like the nation across the little southern sea. But when it comes to the Grand National, or Le Nationale Grande as they probably call it, it's a big 'non' for French-bred horses.
Lots have tried, some have come close. But none has won for about 100 years. Scratch the Frenchies. It's au revoir then to our two ami's, L'Ami and Kelami, as well as well touted Mon Mome, amongst a couple of others.
26 remain.
Now then. A very important stat: winners of the Grand National are classy beasts. They have previously won or placed in a Graded chase.
Just eighteen left now, but it is getting tougher to choose between them. 18 from the last 19 winners had their most recent run within 6 weeks of the race itself. This removes a number of my fancies, but I don't feel I can ignore the importance of a recent run.
So it's ciao ciao to Vodka Bleu, Bewleys Berry, D'Argent, Cornish Sett, and Philson Run.
Of the 13 left in, four carry more than 11 stone, and so I reluctantly eliminate Hedgehunter, Billyvoddan, Simon and Slim Pickings.
Dun Doire and Joes Edge may struggle to get into the race, as numbers 52 and 53 respectively, but if they run they'd be of interest.
This leaves the 2008 Aintree Grand National shortlist, and their current odds (betfair odds in brackets), as:
McKelvey 20/1 (25)
Point Barrow 20/1 (28)
Baily Breeze 66/1 (90)
Naunton Brook 66/1 (330) DOUBTFUL RUNNER
Comply Or Die 12/1 (13)
Idle Talk 66/1 (75)
Homer Wells 50/1 (620) DOUBTFUL RUNNER
(Dun Doire) 40/1 (55)
(Joes Edge) 40/1 (60)
Take out the two likely non-runners, and you are left with five to follow now, and two more should they make the cut on Thursday.
Here's hoping!
Now for part two of my Flat trainers to follow this season, and a very interesting trainer to boot.
Dual purpose and selective is his game, Tom Tate is his name.
Since 2004, he's been a man to follow for sure:
A nigh on 20% strike rate, and a profit of £165 ish a year on average for £10 stakes.
[Note, as always, this is with male horses at 14/1 or shorter: its the TrainerFlatStats way!]
Look out for Tom Tate: he was a friend of TTS jumps followers this season too, with Charlie Crab and he looks set to continue his blazing form this flat season. You're on notice!
Finally, I'd like to draw your attention to a website that may well be of interest to you. As a keen follower of stats, trends and systems myself, I like the look of a new site called Online Betting Exposed.
There's masses of content on there (and a somewhat embarrassing review of myself: I didn't pay them, I assure you!!).
Importantly, and ignoring any references there to me (!), there are impartial reviews of lots of the current 'fad' systems for which you may have seen emails in your box in recent weeks.
As time becomes more pressing for me, and I have less opportunity to review systems myself, I'm happy to point you in the direction of Paul and his team who do an excellent job of impartially reviewing the latest product offerings on the market.
Check them out at www.onlinebettingexposed.com
Until next time, may your next wager be a winning wager,
Matt
I'll also be sharing with you number two on my list of trainers to follow this Flat season.
I'll be telling you about a website that I reckon is well worth a squint if you're into your horse racing (and, lets face it, you wouldn't be here if that wasn't true!).
And, as a special bonus, I'll be giving you free access to TrainerTrackStats, the jumps guide which has been generating impressive profits for its small army of loyal followers this Winter season.
So let's get cracking!
First up, by way of illustrating the fantastic winner finding potential of TrainerFlatStats, I'm giving you the chance to review TrainerTrackStats for free. There's no catch: simply click the link below to download the guide, and check it out.
Of course, when I say there's no catch, I'm obviously hoping that you'll be sufficiently impressed with the quality of the research, and its ability to find winners that you'll agree I'm virtually giving away TrainerFlatStats. I mean, how many products do you know that actually track their results, let alone are able to demonstrate a profit?
Results for TTS can be seen here:
STOP PRESS: 11/2 WINNER TODAY (FROM 3 RUNNERS) PUTS US OVER £2,000 IN PROFIT THIS SEASON, FOR JUST £20 STAKES!!!
If you like what you see, which I hope you will, then you can secure your copy of TrainerFlatStats here:
Enough already, and on with the show...
Next up is the much awaited (by me anyway!) preview of the Grand National, which see the tapes go up at 4.15pm next Saturday afternoon.
Last season I managed to find 33/1 winner Silver Birch, and I'm hopeful that I can do something similar this year but, for reasons that I'll come to, I'm less confident than usual...
First of all, let's consider the race at a high level, and then focus on the specific attributes that a Grand National winner should possess:
Point number one, and absolutely crucial, is that the Grand National is NOT a lottery. For sure, you need a little luck in running. But the unique demands of the race mean that many animals are simply not capable of winning it. By eliminating these from the start list, we will end up with a shortlist that, granted aforementioned fortune in transit, should isolate the winner.
When I say it's a unique race, what exactly do I mean? Well, I mean this: it's the longest race in the British calendar, it has the most runners in the calendar, it has the most fences to jump (with the exception of, I think, the cross country race at Cheltenham, that may actually be a fair trial for this race), and the fences are different from any other race (aside from the four or five other races run on the track).
The trends for the race are extremely strong, and support the notion that you need a certain type of horse to win the race. Enough bluster already Bisogno, cut to the chase (if you'll pardon the fence-jumping pun).
First up, the winner has been aged between 8 and 12 every year since 1940 (Bogskar), so if your fancy is not in that bracket, you can pretty much forget it.
From the 115 starters, less Royal Auclair, Alexander Taipan, and Patman Du Charmil who don't run, this removes eighteen.
Down to 94 confidently, but still plenty of whittling to be done!
Normally, my next trend would be that the horse must be due to carry 11 stone or less. I say normally, because this is the stat which terrifies me this season. I still cannot ignore its importance overall, but will leave it until last, so that you can see the shortlist before making this stipulation, and after...
Given that there's only six days to go until the race, its unlikely that any horse outside the top 60 in the weights will get to run, so we'll lose the rest. That's the 44 remaining runners from Livingstonebramble to the bottom of the handicap.
A round 50 left: trouble is, this represents most of the likely starters!
So next we'll look at experience. It goes without saying that you need an experienced animal to cope with the hustle and bustle of a race such as this. There are two criteria here for me: I won't entertain any horse with less than ten chase starts or any horse that is not into at least their third season jumping the bigger obstacles.
Just 37 left now, and I've (foolishly?) eliminated the warm favourite, Cloudy Lane, who is a second season chaser with just eleven chase runs to his name. I don't swerve him lightly, but I do swerve him.
Now let's smash another myth about the race. "You need a two mile chaser to win the National"... I'd like to swear at this point, but will refrain... It is advantageous to have a horse who can race close the pace (most of these are fairly one-paced, so they're not going to make up forty lengths in the last quarter mile), but you must have a horse with proven stamina.
If your horse hasn't won a chase over three miles or more, he ain't gonna win the National. Fact. So let's delete those that are doubtful / non-stayers.
Another five bite the dust, notably big ante-post mover, King Johns Castle, who has never won a chase beyond 2m1f, nor even a hurdle beyond 2m3f. He's got another two miles to go here... Might do it, but probably won't.
OK, continuing the logic theme, there are forty horses lining up here, so you need a beast that can handle the bustle. If it hasn't won a race with a dozen or more starters, it is unlikely to cope with thirty-nine antagonists!
Thirty still in with a squeak at this point, and time for a bit of anti-Gallic sentiment. Now, regular readers will know I'm something of a Francophile, which is to say I really rather like the nation across the little southern sea. But when it comes to the Grand National, or Le Nationale Grande as they probably call it, it's a big 'non' for French-bred horses.
Lots have tried, some have come close. But none has won for about 100 years. Scratch the Frenchies. It's au revoir then to our two ami's, L'Ami and Kelami, as well as well touted Mon Mome, amongst a couple of others.
26 remain.
Now then. A very important stat: winners of the Grand National are classy beasts. They have previously won or placed in a Graded chase.
Just eighteen left now, but it is getting tougher to choose between them. 18 from the last 19 winners had their most recent run within 6 weeks of the race itself. This removes a number of my fancies, but I don't feel I can ignore the importance of a recent run.
So it's ciao ciao to Vodka Bleu, Bewleys Berry, D'Argent, Cornish Sett, and Philson Run.
Of the 13 left in, four carry more than 11 stone, and so I reluctantly eliminate Hedgehunter, Billyvoddan, Simon and Slim Pickings.
Dun Doire and Joes Edge may struggle to get into the race, as numbers 52 and 53 respectively, but if they run they'd be of interest.
This leaves the 2008 Aintree Grand National shortlist, and their current odds (betfair odds in brackets), as:
McKelvey 20/1 (25)
Point Barrow 20/1 (28)
Baily Breeze 66/1 (90)
Naunton Brook 66/1 (330) DOUBTFUL RUNNER
Comply Or Die 12/1 (13)
Idle Talk 66/1 (75)
Homer Wells 50/1 (620) DOUBTFUL RUNNER
(Dun Doire) 40/1 (55)
(Joes Edge) 40/1 (60)
Take out the two likely non-runners, and you are left with five to follow now, and two more should they make the cut on Thursday.
Here's hoping!
********
Now for part two of my Flat trainers to follow this season, and a very interesting trainer to boot.
Dual purpose and selective is his game, Tom Tate is his name.
Since 2004, he's been a man to follow for sure:
| YEAR | WINS | RUNS | STRIKE% | LSP | LSP% | VSP% |
| 2004 | 9 | 36 | 25 | 25.88 | 71.89 | 40.33 |
| 2005 | 7 | 39 | 17.95 | 10.5 | 26.92 | 16.86 |
| 2006 | 9 | 48 | 18.75 | 19.86 | 41.37 | 13.28 |
| 2007 | 16 | 85 | 18.82 | 10.48 | 12.33 | 12.73 |
| ____ | ________ | ________ | ________________ | ______ | __________ | ________ |
| 41 | 208 | 19.71 | 66.72 | 32.08 | 18.48 |
A nigh on 20% strike rate, and a profit of £165 ish a year on average for £10 stakes.
[Note, as always, this is with male horses at 14/1 or shorter: its the TrainerFlatStats way!]
Look out for Tom Tate: he was a friend of TTS jumps followers this season too, with Charlie Crab and he looks set to continue his blazing form this flat season. You're on notice!
*********
Finally, I'd like to draw your attention to a website that may well be of interest to you. As a keen follower of stats, trends and systems myself, I like the look of a new site called Online Betting Exposed.
There's masses of content on there (and a somewhat embarrassing review of myself: I didn't pay them, I assure you!!).
Importantly, and ignoring any references there to me (!), there are impartial reviews of lots of the current 'fad' systems for which you may have seen emails in your box in recent weeks.
As time becomes more pressing for me, and I have less opportunity to review systems myself, I'm happy to point you in the direction of Paul and his team who do an excellent job of impartially reviewing the latest product offerings on the market.
Check them out at www.onlinebettingexposed.com
Until next time, may your next wager be a winning wager,
Matt
posted by Matt at
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