Cheltenham Nineteen Race Preview / Review Blogathon!

Blimey! That, dear reader, was a slog and – to be honest – was too much. In the end, I’d had enough and wanted it all over. I think you actually can have too much of a good thing…

It started well enough with Old Benny winning for trends followers and for TrainerTrackStats followers (who’ve also had Katchit and others), and the other horse in the race, Back In Line, finishing third. Despite collecting, I still can’t stand these amateur events.

In the second race, I stupidly dismissed the winner as I was miffed about missing the price before he won the Reynoldstown. Albertas Run was, nevertheless, a trends horse and flagged as such in my previous preview.

Third race and a 1-2 for the trends from three runners. 9/1 winner, 12/1 2nd, £125 exacta. I settled for my win bet.

But then it started to go ‘Pete Tong’… In the Queen Mother Champion Chase, I was fearlessly opposing the junior, Master Minded, and had got stuck into Voy Por Ustedes.

The record will show that Voy Por ran a great race, with the rest of the field beaten off. He was however trounced by an animal the likes of whose precocity we have rarely seen.

I never like doing my money (who does?!), but sometimes you just wipe your mouth, and admit you were wrong. I was wrong. Big time! This horse is an absolute monster and, barring accidents, should usurp Moscow Flyer in a few years as the greatest two miler of our generation.

If you think that’s hyperbole, watch the bloody race!



(Apologies for the French commentary)

Having had Back In Line (3rd) and Barbers Shop (2nd), albeit behind the backed winner each time, Voy Por Ustedes started an unwelcome trend of horses one place away from where I needed them to be.

The next race, Ryanair Chase, was won by Our Vic. I’d backed The Listener and also (foolishly?) banked on him in my placepot. That was the end of my placepot. He finished fifth only, with no excuses.

Then it all went really wrong. I’ve said some unpleasant things about amateur jockeys on here, but rarely slated a pro. That needs to change: step forward Mr Ruby Walsh.

Riding a proven stayer like Blazing Bailey with a waiting ride was nothing short of abject. Sure, I’m talking through my pocket, as my place banker finished where they all do: a never nearer fourth, staying on past stablemate and Choc Thornton-ridden My Way de Solzen. How I wish the Choc was on the Bailey. He’d have been third no doubt, without being good enough to trouble the front two.

In the hole at this point, and no respite. That was also race six, and the end of a usual day’s play. But today, we had another four races to savour / endure (depending on results).

Race seven, a handicap chase, and for the second time in a row, Walsh thinks he’s riding Pegasus and not Gwanako. As the doughty and redoubtable Mister McGoldrick tries to nick a few lengths turning in, Ruby decides to wait a while and then give chase. The bird had flown.

Now I’m not saying that Gwanako would have won, but when horses go toe to toe, things are different from when they’re offered an uncontested advantage.

Those who have got stuck into Ruby for top jockey have, I fear, come royally unstuck. (This may change tomorrow of course!)

He’s a dodgepot for me on this showing.

Races eight through ten were a bit of a blur, but for the punting record, Ballyfitz (18/1 winner) qualified on all trends except he carried 10-08, when I made the cut-off at 10-09 (!); Burntoakboy ran well in third in the penultimate (no excuses for my quintet of donkeys); and Corskeagh Royale nearly got me out of jail in the last. He too finished 2nd.

I did back Corskeagh for a place at 11/4, and reeled back some of my cash, but a losing day for sure. (Incidentally, I think Nina Carberry is an excellent jockey, but she rode about a furlong further than any other rider in this race, and that may have been the difference. Then again, it may not, as the winner was green as malachite (I’m tired of ‘green as grass’)).

To tomorrow… just the NINE races for us to solve. Some have been reviewed before, so I’ll just point you at the links in those cases.

David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle

A new race. No trends to follow.

Timeform favour Sweet Kiln (163) over Chomba Womba (158p). Of real interest I think though, is that both Alan King and Robert Thornton learnt pretty much all they know from the late David Nicholson after whom this race is named, so you can be sure that Theatre Girl will be trying for all she’s worth.

2pts win on Sweet Kiln and Theatre Girl for me.

Ballymore Properties Novices’ Hurdle

www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/2008/03/cheltenham-2008-ballymore-properties.html

Coral Cup (Handicap Hurdle)

The Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle is a Grade 3 contest over two miles and five furlongs. It’s a fiendishly difficult race to solve, with a huge field of 28 going to post.

Some key trends will reduce this somewhat, so let’s see what gives:

1. As with all Cheltenham Festival handicaps, it’s a tough race to concede weight in. No horse has lugged more than 11-03. In a very compact handicap this year, we remove the top dozen runners, including – just – the favourite, Leg Spinner, who carries a pound too much.

2. From the remaining sixteen, consider that the last ten winners were all aged 5-9yo, but furthermore, bear in mind that eight of them were 6-8yo. We’ll eliminate anything not in that midrange. Six more out leaves us with ten.

3. Eight of the last ten winners of this race had between one and four runs, which removes another trio.

4. Note that the last five winners of the race had already won that season. Two of our remaining seven fail on this score, which leave five.

I couldn’t put you off any of this quintet: Mendo, Clarnazar, Naiad du Misselot, Song Of Songs and Pyleigh Lady. Actually, saying that, Song of Songs has a serious stamina question to answer, but the other four are realistic contenders.

My final note, and the one that gives me my two against the field is that 70% of the winners in the last decade had been 1st or 2nd over the (slightly unfashionable) distance.

The two in here who still match that trend are Mendo and Pyleigh Lady. The latter is game, goes on all ground, and could give you something to shout about at a juicy, fat price: what chance an eye-popping ride from Mr I Popham, claiming seven?!

JCB Triumph Hurdle

www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/2008/02/cheltenham-2008-triumph-hurdle-preview.htm


Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle

This is another newish race, with just three runs to date. To be honest, I couldn’t find any really strong trends except that all three races so far have been won by a proven stayer, with course experience, Graded form (won a Listed race or better) and starting at a single figure price.

The likely winner – on that flimsy evidence at least – will be none of them! But it’s not Nenuphar Collonges’ fault he’s a 16/1 chance. And, having won over course and distance in a Grade 2 event, he looks a fat price.

2pts each way – let’s get stuck in!

Gold Cup Chase

I reviewed this way back in January, based on trying to find a horse to make the frame:

Moving on to the Gold Cup, and for many people its a match between stablemates Kauto Star, the champ, and Denman, the contender. Exotic Dancer is priced in most books as the most likely bronze medallist.


But how often do races actually turn out that way? Let's think for a second about the way the race will pan out: Denman, the slugger, will try to grind victory out from the front by browbeating his opposition into timid submission.


Kauto, all class, the Muhammed Ali to Denman's Joe Frazier, will float like a butterfly prior to stinging like a bee. Or will he? Kauto tends to, excuse me, twat a fence from time to time. And, with a ferocious pace nigh on guaranteed, he could find the examination has one or two trick questions that may just catch him out.


(Sincere apologies for the ugly mixed metaphors in the above).


So, I'm predicting one of the two will win the race - shock, horror! However, I am also predicting that the one that doesn't win, will not place either. Either Denman will run himself ragged and not get home, or Kauto will stumble and tumble.


Which leaves us with two places to play with and not that many horses to consider. The stats say that nine from the last ten Gold Cup winners were aged 7, 8 or 9. Forget 10yo Kicking King then, despite his run today, which proved little more than he still has a leg in each corner and a touch of class.


I'm also excluding Exotic Dancer, on the basis that the horse has had a setback, and will miss his intended engagement next weekend. As I've mentioned here before, in Championship races, do not back horses who have had setbacks. Very rarely can they overcome them, and still be good enough to kick turf in their peers' noggins.


My shekels have landed on a couple of dark ones who, in fairness, may well not even run in the race. But, for small beer, I reckon they're worth a tickle each way or place only.


They are Halcon Genelardais and Mossbank. Halcon is trained by the best jumps trainer in the country, Alan King, and King's Cheltenham record stands the closest examination.


No horse with a Racing Post Rating lower than 163 has won the race, and 8 out of 10 had a previous RPR of at least 170. HG weighs in at 171, after his impressive - if excruciating - head defeat in the Welsh National, where he lugged 11-10.


Mossbank has a very progressive profile. Having been tonked in the Sun Alliance Chase last season, where he was never put in the race, this season he won his first two starts (a £50,000 to the winner handicap chase, and a Grade 2 where he bolted up from some reliable old sticks).


Last time out, he took on Denman in the Lexus Chase, and only gave best by four lengths. He travelled impeccably that day, giving me hope that a) he will stay, and b) his trainer will also feel that way and run him in the Gold Cup.


Halcon is currently trading at 110 on the exchange, while Mossbank is available at 75.

At those prices, throwaway wagers may give you something luvly jubbly to shout about come middle March.


To be honest, I don’t think Exotic Dancer can overcome an interrupted preparation, and – as I’ve said – I don’t think Kauto and Denman will both be in the frame. So, I reckon there are two places to play for.

I still fancy Halcon, but I’ll put up Neptune Collonges as the second leg of an unlikely Collonges each way double (remember Hussard Collonges winning at 33/1 in 2002?!).

Christie’s Foxhunters’ Chase

They’re at it again, those intrepid (insipid?) amateurs! This time in the ‘amateur’s Gold Cup’, for hunter chasers.

Some interesting patterns have emerged here, and I’m going to take a big chance, as you’ll see momentarily.

Firstly, eight from the last ten winners were aged in single figures. This eliminates nine veterans from the starting 24.

Aside from Paul Nicholls, whose recent record in the race is very good, ignore horses coming predominantly from handicap chases (as opposed to hunter chases). We are able to squeeze out another six by dint of this approach, which leaves nine.

Now for the controversy. In 2006, the Irish had the first FIVE home. In 2007, they had 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 6th.

But the record shows that Whyso Mayo two years ago has been the only Irish winner in the last ten years. Peppering the target is one thing, hitting the bullseye has proved to be quite another. [Egg on face opportunity…]

This leaves five. Consider that all of the last ten winners started at 20/1 or shorter, which this quintet probably / possibly all will, so have half a point on each of Bon Accord, Drombeag (last year’s winner), Lou Du Moulin Mas, Natiain, and Southwestern.

Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase

If Alan King is desperate to win David Nicholson’s race, so Nicky Henderson will be mad to repeat his previous success with Greenhope in the race named after his ‘old man’. Alas, the stats are against him, despite him running three nags.

- Last eight winners all shouldered 10-11 or less (we lose half the field at a stroke)
- Seven of the eight were aged seven, eight or nine (just four left!)

It gets a bit trickier now: six of eight had had three or more runs prior to winning here. Six of eight had also placed or won last time out. And six of eight were officially rated between 130 and 134.

None of our quartet satisfy all of these, but one satisfies none of them, which leaves three.

The remaining trio all satisfy two of the three criteria, and we’ll go a point on each:
Enlightenment, Magic Sky, and Tramantano.

Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle

As ‘get out stakes’ or ‘lucky last’ races go, this is up there with the most insoluble. On the face of it at least. But the longest winning price in the last ten runs was 16/1, and that was on a Martin Pipe trained animal, so all hope is yet to be lost.

Let’s look closer:

28 start. The last ten had all been aged in the rather wide bracket of 5-9 years old. This still leaves us with 26.

8/10 carried 11-01 or less to victory. In almost all Festival handicaps, it’s tough to win with the weight (although Blowing Wind and Spirit Leader have managed it). Unless the dark horse, Wanango, proves very good, I doubt we’ll see a weight carrying performance here, so let’s strike out another nine. Seventeen left in.

This is a race for the battle hardened (horses as well as punters!), and nine out of the last ten winners had already had at least four runs that season. We’ll discount another five, leaving twelve.

Remarkably, the next pattern evicts all but two of the previously remaining dozen: eight out of ten winners were placed last time out.

So there it is. The winner of the County Hurdle will be either Silver Jaro or Dark Bolero. Who?! But you said the winner had to be 16/1 or shorter…

I know, and I suspect that Dark Bolero will come in for support. Either way, I’ll wager a point each way on both. I may need a big priced winner to get me out of jail at this point!

Trends Choices

12.30 (Advised 13th March) 2pts win Sweet Kiln
(13th March) 2pts win Theatre Girl

1.05 (Advised 5th March) 1 pt Forpadydeplasterer 11/2 (General)
(5th Mar) 1 pt win Aigle d’Or (General)

1.40 (11th March) 1.5 pts e/w Mendo (25/1 general)
(11th March) 1 pt e/w Pyleigh Lady (50/1 Bluesq)

2.15 (28th Feb) 2 pts win Serabad 32 (betfair)
(28th Feb) 1 pt e/w Serabad 25/1 (general)

2.50 (13th March) 2pts e/w Nenuphar Collonges (16/1 Coral)

3.30 (24th January) 1pt win Mossbank 75 (betfair) Non Runner
(24th January) 1pt win Halcon Genelardais 110 (betfair)
(24th January) 0.5pt e/w Mossbank 50/1 (Sportingbet) Non Runner
(24th January) 0.5pt e/w Halcon Genelardais 50/1 (General)
(13th March) 0.5 pts e/w Neptune Collonges (28/1 totesport)

4.05 (13th March) 0.5 pt win Bon Accord (10/1 Coral)
(13th March) 0.5 pt win Drombeag (11/1 Coral)
(13th March) 0.5 pt win Lou Du Moulin Mas (9/1 totesport)
(13th March) 0.5 pt win Natiain (25/1 VC, bet365)
(13th March) 0.5 pt win Southwestern (22/1 totesport)

4.40 (13th March) 1 pt win Enlightenment (12 betfair)
(13th March) 1 pt win Magic Sky (65 betfair)
(13th March) 1 pt win Tramantano (38 betfair)

5.20 (13th March) 1 pt e/w Dark Bolero (33/1 general, 36 betfair)
(13th March) 1 pt e/w Silver Jaro (28/1 totesport, Sportingbet, 46 betfair)


Timeform Top Two

12.30 Sweet Kiln 163 / Chomba Womba 158p
1.05 Breedsbreeze 154p / Aigle d’Or 152p
1.40 Leg Spinner 173+ / Whispered Promises 172
2.15 Franchoek 168p / Five Dream 162
2.50 Gone To Lunch 158 / Lodge Lane 155p / The Tother One 155p
3.30 Kauto Star 195 / Denman 189p
4.05 Lou Du Moulin Mas 139 / Drombeag 138
4.40 Hasty Prince 169 / Andreas 166 / Tiger Cry 166
5.20 Mon Michel 166 / Leg Spinner 164+

‘p’ = potential for improvement; ‘+’ = might be better than quoted figure; ‘$’ = unreliable; ‘?’ = rating is suspect

Nap of the Day
3.30 Me to be drunk before the Gold Cup!

Lay of the Day
5.20 Me to be anyone’s by the time the County Hurdle is run!

The very best of luck to you... no blog tomorrow, for - I hope - obvious reasons!

Matt