Cheltenham 2008 - Bring It On!!! (Tuesday Preview)

Just two days to go, dear reader, until the starter calls them in for the first sextet of championship races on the opening day of the 2008 Cheltenham Festival.

Excitement in this small corner of Hackney is close to the ‘danger zone’, and I just can’t wait for it all to get underway now.

I’ve already reviewed the trends for the first three races on Tuesday: the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, the Arkle, and the Champion Hurdle, and if you followed the Nag3 advice, pretty much all tickets are trading at shorter. Which is nice…

So, let’s take a look at the remaining three races on the opening day:

William Hill Handicap Chase

The William Hill Handicap Chase is a Grade 3 contest over three miles (and a little bit). Since the turn of the century, it seems to have attracted a few more decent animals, so for this race, we’ll review the trends from 2000 onwards (seven races).

There are 34 entered, of which a maximum of 24 will run. From the last seven years, some key trends quickly whittle this number down to something more manageable.

First off, the winner has always been in the 7-10yo bracket, so we can strike through three old boys and three young guns. These include 2^nd favourite, Ofarel D’Airy.

Next up, and a recurring stat in the Festival handicap chases, the winner has not shouldered more than 10-11 this century. Moreover, every winner has been in the handicap proper.

This leaves us with just fifteen, but most of the eliminated horses would have missed the cut anyway, so it doesn’t help as much as it first appeared. Leading fancy Miko De Beauchene is removed at this stage.

The third key trend is that six of the last seven winners had at least three runs, and no more than six runs prior to serving it up in this race.

The exception, and much the exception in many other ways too, was Joes Edge last year. We’ll strike through another four horses, including Mon Mome and previous winner Dun Doire.

Stat number four: ignoring Joes Edge, the other six winners in the 2000’s had finished on the podium in their previous outing. Remarkably, this eliminates all but four of the field.

Those left standing are: An Accordian, King Harald, Mattock Ranger, and Fier Normand.

An Accordian is bound to go off favourite but, in the last twenty years, only one favourite (Antonin in 1994) has matched his market status with his finishing position.

Our trio for the race then are: King Harald, Mattock Ranger and Fier Normand.

BGC Cross Country Handicap Chase

Only three years worth of form here, and not a race to go too mad on at the best of times. That said, some clear patterns are emerging.

Look for an Irish-trainer winner (all three to date have shipped over), near the top of the market (5/2, 7/2 and 4/1 winners to date).

The PP Hogan Memorial Chase run at Punchestown in February has contained the first two home in the last two runnings of this race (indeed, the first four home in 2006!), so is obviously the key race to review.

In fact, although the ‘also rans’ in the Punchestown race have a good record of placing at Cheltenham, the winner in Ireland for the past two years has gone on to win at the Festival.

Look no further than Garde Champetre for this race.

Fred Winter Juvenile Novices’ Handicap Hurdle

Lots of reasons not to have a bet in this race, and my advice is not to get too bullish about your fancy.

Although Gaspara won last year (doing Nag3 followers a turn), copping the bonus for winning the big handicap at Sandown just a couple of days before, the fancied runners were seen off by long shots in the other two runnings.

There isn’t too much to go on here, but I’d say we’re looking for a lightly raced, stamina laden horse towards the top of the handicap.

The ones I really like are Crack Away Jack, who absolutely hacked up last time out. Grand Schlem also has claims. If Ashkazar runs in the race, he may well win, and River Liane has been widely and loudly touted after cantering in on debut.

As I said, a very tough race to find the winner, and one where you may still need six selections to be hopeful of catching the placepot!

Trends Choices

2.00 (Advised 23^rd) Feb 2.5 pts e/w Muirhead 10/1 (Totesport)
(23^rd Feb) 1 pt win Pasco at 85 (betfair)

2.35 (14^th Feb) 2 pts win Tidal Bay 10/1 (General)

3.15 (28^th Jan) 6pts win Sizing Europe 3/1 (Ladbrokes)
(1^st Nov) 1pt win Detroit City 26 (betfair) R.I.P.
(1^st Nov) 1pt win Straw Bear 36 (betfair)

4.00 (9^th March) 1 pt win Fier Normand (16/1 general)
(9^th March) 1 pt win King Harald (16/1 general)
(9^th March) 1 pt win Mattock Ranger (60 betfair)

4.40 (9^th March) 1 pt win Garde Champetre (11/2 Coral)

5.20 (9^th March) 1 pt win Grand Schlem (9.6 betfair)
(9^th March) 1 pt win Crack Away Jack (12 betfair)

Timeform Top Two

2.00 Breedsbreeze 154p / Pigeon Island 154
2.35 Tidal Bay 162+ / Noland 159p
3.15 Sizing Europe 176p / Harchibald 175$
4.00 An Accordian 171+ / Bob Hall 170?
4.40 Wonderkid 153 / Heads Onthe Ground 152
5.20 River Liane 153p / Grand Schlem 152+

‘p’ = potential for improvement; ‘+’ = might be better than quoted figure; ‘$’ = unreliable; ‘?’ = rating is suspect

Nag3 Nap of the Day
3.15 Sizing Europe (a monster, still improving, my bet of the meeting, which normally means bad things!)

Nag3 Lay of the Day
2.35 Noland (might win, but waaaaay too short on the basis of his two runs over fences to date. The Arkle is a favourite’s graveyard, with just three obliging in last 20 years)

BRING IT ON!!!!!

Matt