Cheltenham 2008 - Ballymore Properties Novices' Hurdle Preview

Shelling peas, dear reader, that's what finding the winner in this race used to be...

1997 Istabraq won his previous three starts and justified 6/5 favouritism
1998 French Holly won all four previous starts and justified 2/1 favouritism
1999 Barton won all five previous starts and also justified 2/1 favouritism
2000 Monsignor also won all five previous starts and cantered home at 5/4 favourite

In the six runnings since then, no favourite has won. But, lest you think things have got tougher, only 20/1 Massini's Maguire last year has started at greater than 12/1 when winning.

So we're definitely focusing on the top segment of the market to find the 'chicken dinner' here. But more of that in due course.

Let's take a look at some other stats from the past ten winners first...

1. 9/10 were aged 5 or 6: this takes out 17

2. 9/10 finished 1st or 2nd last time out: this scratches a whopping 55 no hopers!

3. 9/10 had not been lower than 2nd on completed starts that season: adieu to 19 more

4. 9/10 had run to a Racing Post Rating of 145 or higher prior to winning: just eight left now

5. No speed figure for Galileo in 2002, but the other 9/9 had run to 117 or more. 7/9 had run 129 or higher

These five criteria whittles over 100 horses down to just four. The problem is that they're four of the first five in the betting!

So, with a degree of confidence, I say that the winner comes from:

Aigle D'Or
Breedsbreeze
Forpadydeplasterer
Trafford Lad

I do appreciate that I'm not exactly setting the world alight with my controversial and / or lateral tipping here, but these - statistically at least - are the most likely winners.

Personally, I like Forpadydeplasterer (not just for the name!), and also Aigle D'Or, who probably has the most improvement in him, so I'll side with these two for small stakes (it's not worth betting more at the prohibitive odds).

1pt win Forpadydeplaster 11/2 (General)
1pt win Aigle D'Or 5/1 (General)

Portfolio to date

Ballymore Properties Novices' Hurdle
5th Mar 1 pt win Forpadydeplasterer 11/2 (general)
5th Mar 1 pt win Aigle D'Or 5/1 (general)

JCB Triumph Hurdle
28th Feb 2 pts win Serabad 32 (betfair)
28th Feb 1 pt e/w Serabad 25/1 (general)

Royal & Sun Alliance Novice Chase
26th Feb 3 pts win Silverburn 10/1 (Victor Chandler)
26th Feb 1 pt win Gold Medallist 44 (betfair)

Champion Chase
24th Feb 3 pts win Twist Magic 3/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
24th Feb 2 pts win Voy Por Ustedes at 4/1 (PP, Lads, Hills)

Supreme Novices' Hurdle
23th Feb 2.5 pts e/w Muirhead 10/1 (Totesport)
23th Feb 1 pt win Pasco at 85 (betfair)

Arkle
14th Feb 2 pts win Tidal Bay 10/1 (General)

Champion Hurdle
28th Jan 6pts win Sizing Europe 3/1 (Ladbrokes)
1st Nov 1pt win Detroit City 26 (betfair)
1st Nov 1pt win Straw Bear 36 (betfair)

Gold Cup
24th Jan 1pt win Mossbank 75 (betfair)
24th Jan 1pt win Halcon Genelardais 110 (betfair)
24th Jan 0.5pt e/w Mossbank 50/1 (Sportingbet)
24th Jan 0.5pt e/w Halcon Genelardais 50/1 (General)

World Hurdle (aka Stayers Hurdle)
28th January 2pts e/w Blazing Bailey 9/1 (general)