Blown Out? Is This A Wind Up?!

Curiouser and Curiouser, dear reader, but then you know the windy abandonment story by now, so I'll not relate to it further.

Contentment in the knowledge that you did not lose money on day 2 may only be a temporary moment, for now we must brace ourselves for our own severe storm warning, with no less than NINETEEN races in two days!

Without so much as a moment to catch my breath, here are the trends for tomorrow's ten racer (lest you think you’re suffering from déjà vu, note that I’ve copied and pasted from yesterday’s blog in places).

Peter O’Sullevan National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup (Amateur Riders’ Novices’ Chase)

The title says it all. Well nearly. It’s also over a distance of four miles. And 27 fences. Twenty Seven. Fences. Amateur Riders. Four Miles.

It’s just a ridiculous concept for a race, and not really a betting proposition. Last year, Gungadu would have carted up, but for chucking the jockey off after at the penultimate fence. That’s the type of race this is. You need to be fearlessly reckless or recklessly fearless to punt big on it.

Nevertheless, parking my prejudices momentarily, I will share some stats that may (or may not!) persuade you to wager…

Firstly, I will only look at the last six renewals because, in truth, I can’t be arsed to waste my time on more than that!

So, all six winners were aged 7-10, with five of them seven or eight. I’ll side with the latter subset. This narrows twenty started down to eight.

Next, let us eliminate any horse that has not had at least four chase runs (inexperience will see you on your horse’y bum in this contest), as five of the last six winners had relative experience on their side. Another two bite the dust, as they almost certainly will do tomorrow afternoon.

One more point to consider: four of the last six won or were second last time out. It may seem cavalier to use ‘four from six’ as a material statistic, but anyone who wagers in this race is somewhat cavalier in my opinion anyway!

That leaves two. Old Benny and Back On Line. Very small stakes only.

Incidentally, and perhaps a better approach given that four of the last five winners were 25/1, 33/1 (twice) and 40/1, it might be better to suspend the above stats and note that Jonjo O’Neill has a phenomenal record in the race.

He’s saddled four of the last six winners, including 10/1, 25/1 and 33/1 shots. He runs two this time: Pass It On and King Of Angels, both of which are big prices.

Sun Alliance Chase

www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/2008/02/cheltenham-2008-sun-alliance-chase.html

Jewson Novices’ Chase

One of the new races and, as such, not a lot to go on: just three incidences of this so far.

Nevertheless, some pointers as follows:

All three winners were aged 7, but let’s widen the search band to 6-8 year olds.

All three winners carried less than eleven stone (it’s tough to lug the weight in handicap chases at the Festival, as I’ve alluded to previously).

All three winners were first or second last time out.

Pattern race form seems to be very important, with two winners and almost all the placed horses from the three runnings having been highly tried earlier in the season. (My thanks to the attheraces website for that cracking insight).

Just three horses fit this profile, and they are:
Barbers Shop
Ambobo
Fingeronthepulse

I’ll risk a point on each.

Queen Mother Champion Chase

www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/2008/02/cheltenham-2008-champion-chase-preview.html

Ryanair Chase

Another new race, so again it would be foolish to get too carried away with any embryonic patterns that may be emerging. In the interests of sport, however, let’s see what those emergent trends are:

1. The three winners to date had three or four previous runs.
2. All had placed last time out AND placed in a Graded race previously
3. All had previously won at Cheltenham
4. All had recorded a Racing Post Topspeed figure of 150+
   

The only horse who fits the bill is The Listener. I’m no sentimentalist, but given that his trainer has been extremely ill in hospital for some time now, I seriously hope this one wins.

Ladbrokes World Hurdle

I’ve already tipped up Blazing Bailey as a formidable each way bet in the race, but that was not based on trends. More, it was predicated on the fact that the horse has a Katchit-sized heart, and is a classy beast to boot (as Ruby Walsh surely will boot him, now that Choc Thornton has – carelessly in my opinion – decided to ride My Way de Solzen).

But let’s look at the trends for the last ten years:

1. 10/10 were aged 6 to 8 years old. We wave a reluctant arrivederci to short priced favourite, Inglis Drever, amongst others.
2. The last eight winners were 1^st or 2^nd on their previous outing.
3. 8/10 had had 2-4 previous outings that season.
4. 8/10 had been 1^st or 2^nd at the track.
5. The last seven winners had recorded a Racing Post Rating of 159+ that season.
6. The last seven winners were 8/1 or shorter.
   

The only horse to satisfy 1-5 above (and also 6) is…. Blazing Bailey! He looks a place banker to me. Had I not singed my digits on Tuesday, I’d be getting stuck in at around 7/4 on betfair. [Actually, 7/4 is way too big, so I’m going to get stuck in again!]

Racing Post Plate

A two and a half mile handicap chase, with lots of runners. Stats say this:

- 9/10 carried 11 stone or less to victory (adieu Don’t Push It and others)
- 9/10 had two or more runs that season (another two exit stage)
- 8/10 were officially rated 128-138 (three more drop out)
- Attheraces website tells me (and I’ve checked) that a French bred (no, not a baguette!) has won or been second in the last eight runnings.
- 8/10 have won at 12/1 or bigger

Fitting the bill, though with limited confidence in this quarter, are Patman du Charmil and the likely too short odds Gwanako.

Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle)

For me, the hardest race of the week to solve, with few strong patterns over the past ten recurrences. But you don’t want to hear that… so here goes nothing:

- All ten were six to nine years old (24 down to 17)
- 9/10 had 3-6 previous starts (lose 3, 14 in)
- 7/10 lugged 10-09 or more (the other 3 had 10-00 – 10-02) [I don’t think this is a very strong stat by the way, but it leaves us with nine]
- 7/10 were 1^st or 2^nd last time out, which leaves just two.
- 8/10 had won over 2m 5f or more, which leaves the same two.

For small interest only, let’s see how Wild Cane Ridge and Backbord fare.

Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Amateur Riders)

Oh boy! If you thought one display of human-equine co-ordination ineptitude was enough for day, we are blessed (cursed?!!) with another pageant of amateurish buffoonery from the farmers’ offspring and military careerists in the Kim Muir (with the usual apologies to any reader who may wear a uniform or drive a tractor).

I really don’t care for these races, and find them somewhat self-indulgent toward the tweed classes. No matter, every convention of clowns has a budding Joseph Grimaldi in its midst, and we may just be able to isolate the chief wig-wearing, plastic flower-water squirting, big shoe-wearing foam pie-chucking winner from this motley lot. (Ok, so the clown gag should have been killed some sentences ago, but I was keen to express my disdain…)

Trends over the last ten runnings as follows:

1. 10/10 were 7-10 years old (scratch five of the 24 starters, including 3 of the top 4 in the betting)
2. 0/10 were Irish trained. Send four home across ‘the puddle’.
3. One winner was first time out; of the other nine, all had either won their sole previous outing that season, or had had four or more runs. Seven fail this stat, leaving us with eight.
4. Aside from the first time out winner, all nine other winners had either won, or been placed two or more times that season. Five still in.
   

Er, that’s it. In a race where you need luck and a white coat man if you have a bet, have 50p on the remaining five:

Ardaghey, Beat The Boys, Ma Yahab, Burntoakboy, and Undeniable.

An honourable mention in despatches at this point for Ferdy Murphy’s Noir Et Vert, who would surely have been ridden by Choc Thornton, were he an amateur (that’s a Black & Green’s gag, for all you chocaholics out there! Incidentally, and a fascinating snippet, Choc himself won this race as an amateur back in 1997 for the late, great David Nicholson, so you do get an occasional stylish jockey emerge from the knitting, washing up and taxi hailing impersonators…)

Weatherby’s Champion Bumper

A traditionally hard race to find the winner in, with so many 1’s in the form lines and more ‘dark horses’ than a Black Beauty audition.

Some patterns that might help though, are:

1. 8/10 have been five years old (24 down to 16 after this stat is applied)
2. 8/10 have been Irish trained (and a further one, Liberman, was bought after winning twice in Ireland). Just seven left on the list.
3. Six of the last eight (and all of the last five) winners have had three or four runs prior to Cheltenham.
   

This leaves us with just three: Corkskeagh Royale, Drive On Regardles, and Pineau De Re. At 11/1, 33/1 and 40/1, why not have a small tickle on all of them?!

No recap here of the trends horses or the Timeform Top Two because, to be honest, I’m tired and my one good typing finger is hurting.

Nap of the Day
3.30 Blazing Bailey to be in the first three

Lay of the Day
2.35 Master Minded (I still just hope he gets back to the stable ok)

Wishing you the fortitude (physical, emotional, and financial) to survive the ten rounds of heavyweight action that is our collective calling tomorrow.

Matt