Grand National 2008 Weights: Tilting At Windmills...
A strange phrase is that 'tilting at windmills', dear reader, and we have Cervantes to blame. For it was he, whose hero Don Quixote (not Donkey Hotay, who I've backed a few times...), coined the expression.
It means, as I'm sure you know, taking on a task too far, with an outside chance of success. Well, that is very much how trying to find the winner of the Grand National this year feels.
The race has become very fashionable once more, and is a trifle softer since the fences were revised downwards, which is leading to more and more top horses being 'risked' in the marathon.
My track record of finding the winner in the race is good. Indeed, dare I say it, it is excellent. But my confidence of shortlisting this year's primus inter pares is not high.
Starting with 150 runners, it is a task of some magnitude anyway, and - in the name of sport - and hopefully good old filthy lucre, I set about it with both zeal and relish (and no little aplomb!).
This is what I did, and what happened:
1. Remove horses weighted to carry above 11-00, as only one has won since 1983 (and that one, Hedgehunter, carried 11-01!), and those carrying less than 10-00 as they're very unlikely to get into the race this year.
This leaves us with 80. Not bad, 70 down at a stroke. Alas, I fear that - with so many classy horses (24 to be precise) above the 11-00 threshold, this may be the year that the stats get blitzed. No matter, until they do, I'll seek solace in 24 from 25 winners shouldering less lead than elevenses.
2. Remove any horse not aged 8-12, as no horse outside this range has won since 1940!
Another 13 down, leaves us with 67 left in. This is getting better...
3. Remove any horse who has not won over 3m+ and in a field of 12 or more runners (it's a long race and there's a looooot of company!)
19 more fail this test, and we're left with 48.
4. Remove the French breds, as no such horse has won since 1909!
Incidentally, while this only removes four horses, one of them was put up by the 'Trends' man at the Racing Post in a column that was in the RP supplement today, directly adjacent to a titbit saying, "No French bred has won since 1909, though plenty have tried".
If I may, and with the usual risk of egg on 'boat', what shocking and shameful tipping!
44 left in.
5. No horse in the last decade has won the race having had less than ten chase runs, and I am always wary of second season chasers, regardless of how many runs they've had.
This takes out ten more and leaves us with 34 from our starting 150. Getting there, but now it gets a bit trickier...
6. Since 1990, only Miinnehoma has had less than four runs, with the other sixteen winners have 4-7 starts in the season, prior to the big day. I have excluded horses who have had two or less starts this season, though they could conceivably be reinstated between now and the first Saturday in April.
Their removal renders us with 19, a number which could go up or down. But we'll stick with this for now.
7. A very interesting stat. Since 1990, only Amberleigh House has pulled up in their Grand National winning season. Out of 97 runs, this was the only 'P' on the seasonal winners' collective card.
Strike through another nine, leaving just ten in.
8. All winners since 1990 had been placed in the first three that same season prior to the Grand National. This cuts one more out.
And there we are: 150 into 9.
The nonet we go to war with are:
Slim Pickings
Vodka Bleu
Joaaci
Naunton Brook
Royal Auclair
Idle Talk
Black Apalachi
Tom Sayers
Bannister Lane
Given that the bottom two are unlikely to make the cut; that Idle Talk can't jump a path without falling over; and, that previously placed horses have a shocking record in the race; this leaves us with:
Vodka Bleu
Joaaci
Naunton Brook
Black Apalachi
I've backed all nine of these, and I especially like Naunton Brook and Black Apalachi, but I repeat, it will not surprise me in the slightest to see a classier horse carrying a heavier saddlecloth plunder the prize this year.
Incidentally, I'd be wary of backing horses who have a hard race at Cheltenham (although Silver Birch did us proud last year, there were four weeks between festivals. This year, it will be three weeks as is the norm).
Best of luck, and no doubt you'll be writing to me telling me I've made mistakes in my research. Given this was all done last night, its certainly possible. So, the standard disclaimer applies!
How about some comments on who you think will win, and why? And who can't win, and why?
I'll look forward to reading and sharing your thoughts on here.
Matt
It means, as I'm sure you know, taking on a task too far, with an outside chance of success. Well, that is very much how trying to find the winner of the Grand National this year feels.
The race has become very fashionable once more, and is a trifle softer since the fences were revised downwards, which is leading to more and more top horses being 'risked' in the marathon.
My track record of finding the winner in the race is good. Indeed, dare I say it, it is excellent. But my confidence of shortlisting this year's primus inter pares is not high.
Starting with 150 runners, it is a task of some magnitude anyway, and - in the name of sport - and hopefully good old filthy lucre, I set about it with both zeal and relish (and no little aplomb!).
This is what I did, and what happened:
1. Remove horses weighted to carry above 11-00, as only one has won since 1983 (and that one, Hedgehunter, carried 11-01!), and those carrying less than 10-00 as they're very unlikely to get into the race this year.
This leaves us with 80. Not bad, 70 down at a stroke. Alas, I fear that - with so many classy horses (24 to be precise) above the 11-00 threshold, this may be the year that the stats get blitzed. No matter, until they do, I'll seek solace in 24 from 25 winners shouldering less lead than elevenses.
2. Remove any horse not aged 8-12, as no horse outside this range has won since 1940!
Another 13 down, leaves us with 67 left in. This is getting better...
3. Remove any horse who has not won over 3m+ and in a field of 12 or more runners (it's a long race and there's a looooot of company!)
19 more fail this test, and we're left with 48.
4. Remove the French breds, as no such horse has won since 1909!
Incidentally, while this only removes four horses, one of them was put up by the 'Trends' man at the Racing Post in a column that was in the RP supplement today, directly adjacent to a titbit saying, "No French bred has won since 1909, though plenty have tried".
If I may, and with the usual risk of egg on 'boat', what shocking and shameful tipping!
44 left in.
5. No horse in the last decade has won the race having had less than ten chase runs, and I am always wary of second season chasers, regardless of how many runs they've had.
This takes out ten more and leaves us with 34 from our starting 150. Getting there, but now it gets a bit trickier...
6. Since 1990, only Miinnehoma has had less than four runs, with the other sixteen winners have 4-7 starts in the season, prior to the big day. I have excluded horses who have had two or less starts this season, though they could conceivably be reinstated between now and the first Saturday in April.
Their removal renders us with 19, a number which could go up or down. But we'll stick with this for now.
7. A very interesting stat. Since 1990, only Amberleigh House has pulled up in their Grand National winning season. Out of 97 runs, this was the only 'P' on the seasonal winners' collective card.
Strike through another nine, leaving just ten in.
8. All winners since 1990 had been placed in the first three that same season prior to the Grand National. This cuts one more out.
And there we are: 150 into 9.
The nonet we go to war with are:
Slim Pickings
Vodka Bleu
Joaaci
Naunton Brook
Royal Auclair
Idle Talk
Black Apalachi
Tom Sayers
Bannister Lane
Given that the bottom two are unlikely to make the cut; that Idle Talk can't jump a path without falling over; and, that previously placed horses have a shocking record in the race; this leaves us with:
Vodka Bleu
Joaaci
Naunton Brook
Black Apalachi
I've backed all nine of these, and I especially like Naunton Brook and Black Apalachi, but I repeat, it will not surprise me in the slightest to see a classier horse carrying a heavier saddlecloth plunder the prize this year.
Incidentally, I'd be wary of backing horses who have a hard race at Cheltenham (although Silver Birch did us proud last year, there were four weeks between festivals. This year, it will be three weeks as is the norm).
Best of luck, and no doubt you'll be writing to me telling me I've made mistakes in my research. Given this was all done last night, its certainly possible. So, the standard disclaimer applies!
How about some comments on who you think will win, and why? And who can't win, and why?
I'll look forward to reading and sharing your thoughts on here.
Matt
posted by Matt at
18:48
2 Comments:
Interesting read and I remember your picking (and gloating) about picking Silver Birch last year. I agree that this is a tremendous trends race and I also agree though that the profile of the race is on the upgrade. I'm sure we will see a quality horse win carrying about 11-8 at some time soon - but will it be this year.
Also my fancy at the start of the season was Hot Weld. What happened to that - anyone know?
Interesting post. I well remember your picking (and gloating about) Silver Birch last year.
I agree with you abouut the trends and also though that the profile of the race is increasing and more quality horses are taking their chances. I'm sure at sometime soon a classy animal will carry 11-6+ and win. But will it be this year?
Also my start of season fancy was Hot Weld - anyone know what happened to it?
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