Cheltenham 2008 - Supreme Novices' Hurdle Preview
One of the main problems, dear reader, of trying to find viable ante-post wagers for the Cheltenham Festival is knowing which race horses are likely to run in.
I have already put up Tidal Bay here in my Arkle preview and, alas, it looks as though the trainer favours the longer Royal & Sun Alliance Chase for TB. Surprised and disappointed as I am by this (I think the RSA is a much tougher race this year), it is the nature of the game. The Bay may yet run in the two miler, but - for now - I am suitably chastened and expect to have conceded my cash without any kind of run on that beastie.
No matter, for their are many more conundrums (conundra?) to be solved between now and mid-March. Today, let's have a crack at the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, the opening race on Tuesday, for which the more hardened amongst us salivate from the turn of the year.
The Supreme Novices' Hurdle is run over two miles, and is for novices aged four and above, though usually four year olds run in the Triumph Hurdle, which is considered a softer race (or, at least, a race for less mature horses).
There are some pretty strong trends, and that is just as well, because at the time of writing there are no less than 94 horses still entered!
However, let us consider some key common characteristics that recent winners have shared.
8 from the last 10 were aged 5 or 6. Hors La Loi III as a four year old bucked all sorts of trends, and was an exceptionally precocious animal. And Like-A-Butterfly (7/4 fav in 2002) was similarly hard to get away from when winning as an 8yo. However, for the purposes of the trends, we'll exclude all bar 5 and 6 year olds. 22 down, including Captain Cee Bee, ante-post favourite...
9 out of ten winners had won their previous start. Now of course it is possible that horses entered will run and win between now and the Festival, but most of the big prep races (except for a couple today) have been and gone already. So let's strike out last time losers. That leaves us with just 19 runners, even though we've only looked at two key stats.
Still nineteen is not exactly an easily manageable number, so let's press on with more eliminations...
All of the last ten winners had between two and four runs prior to Cheltenham, and none of them had ever placed worse than 4th over hurdles prior to Cheltenham, so we'll ignore over and underexposed sorts (again, I know that it is possible that some horses may qualify or disqualify themselves between now and the Festival), and horses who've had a stinker...
We're still left with sixteen on our list. Time to get a bit more creative, methinks... How about this one: nine of the last ten winners had won on the flat (including bumpers) over 10 furlongs or more (8/10 over 12f or more, and 7/10 over 14f or more).
Also, nine out of ten had won previously in a field of fifteen or more. This is important, as their will be a large field here, and it proves a horse can a) handle the hurly hurdle burly, and b) has a high cruising speed typically.
Applying these two criteria leaves just eleven runners.
So, finally, we should take into account class. Nine from the last ten winners had run up to a Racing Post Rating of 132 or more, the exception being last year's winner Ebaziyan.
Accounting for this leaves just Muirhead, Forpadydeplasterer, Group Captain and Pasco.
This is where it gets a bit trickier, as a couple of horses (like Numide today, Sentry Duty and Fiveforthree) could still book their places. And, of course, there is the 'which race will the trainer plump for?' question still to be answered in some cases.
To this end, it is expected that both Group Captain and Forpadydeplasterer will run in the longer 2m5f Ballymore Properties Novices' Hurdle.
So, going with what we know, this would leave us with:
Muirhead 10/1 Totesport 11.5 Betfair
Pasco 25/1 General 85 Betfair
Pasco is also entered in the County Hurdle, and could run in both or either.
I really like Muirhead, whose form is rock solid, and is bound to start at around 5/1 on the day. So grab 10/1 (or bigger on betfair) while you can. He will have a break to overcome, but aside from that, he looks each way banker material.
The Nicholls horse is also worthy of a small interest, so we'll play like this:
2.5 pts e/w Muirhead at 10/1
1 pt win Pasco at 85
Which makes the portfolio look akin to this...
Portfolio to date
Supreme Novices' Hurdle
23th Feb 2.5 pts e/w Muirhead 10/1 (Totesport)
23th Feb 1 pt win Pasco at 85 (betfair)
Arkle
14th Feb 2 pts win Tidal Bay 10/1 (General)
Champion Hurdle
28th Jan 6pts win Sizing Europe 3/1 (Ladbrokes)
1st Nov 1pt win Detroit City 26 (betfair)
1st Nov 1pt win Straw Bear 36 (betfair)
Gold Cup
24th Jan 1pt win Mossbank 75 (betfair)
24th Jan 1pt win Halcon Genelardais 110 (betfair)
24th Jan 0.5pt e/w Mossbank 50/1 (Sportingbet)
24th Jan 0.5pt e/w Halcon Genelardais 50/1 (General)
World Hurdle (aka Stayers Hurdle)
28th January 2pts e/w Blazing Bailey 9/1 (general)
I hope to preview the Royal & Sun Alliance Chase, and the Champion Chase on Sunday, time permitting.
Good luck, as ever, with your weekend wagers!
Matt
I have already put up Tidal Bay here in my Arkle preview and, alas, it looks as though the trainer favours the longer Royal & Sun Alliance Chase for TB. Surprised and disappointed as I am by this (I think the RSA is a much tougher race this year), it is the nature of the game. The Bay may yet run in the two miler, but - for now - I am suitably chastened and expect to have conceded my cash without any kind of run on that beastie.
No matter, for their are many more conundrums (conundra?) to be solved between now and mid-March. Today, let's have a crack at the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, the opening race on Tuesday, for which the more hardened amongst us salivate from the turn of the year.
The Supreme Novices' Hurdle is run over two miles, and is for novices aged four and above, though usually four year olds run in the Triumph Hurdle, which is considered a softer race (or, at least, a race for less mature horses).
There are some pretty strong trends, and that is just as well, because at the time of writing there are no less than 94 horses still entered!
However, let us consider some key common characteristics that recent winners have shared.
8 from the last 10 were aged 5 or 6. Hors La Loi III as a four year old bucked all sorts of trends, and was an exceptionally precocious animal. And Like-A-Butterfly (7/4 fav in 2002) was similarly hard to get away from when winning as an 8yo. However, for the purposes of the trends, we'll exclude all bar 5 and 6 year olds. 22 down, including Captain Cee Bee, ante-post favourite...
9 out of ten winners had won their previous start. Now of course it is possible that horses entered will run and win between now and the Festival, but most of the big prep races (except for a couple today) have been and gone already. So let's strike out last time losers. That leaves us with just 19 runners, even though we've only looked at two key stats.
Still nineteen is not exactly an easily manageable number, so let's press on with more eliminations...
All of the last ten winners had between two and four runs prior to Cheltenham, and none of them had ever placed worse than 4th over hurdles prior to Cheltenham, so we'll ignore over and underexposed sorts (again, I know that it is possible that some horses may qualify or disqualify themselves between now and the Festival), and horses who've had a stinker...
We're still left with sixteen on our list. Time to get a bit more creative, methinks... How about this one: nine of the last ten winners had won on the flat (including bumpers) over 10 furlongs or more (8/10 over 12f or more, and 7/10 over 14f or more).
Also, nine out of ten had won previously in a field of fifteen or more. This is important, as their will be a large field here, and it proves a horse can a) handle the hurly hurdle burly, and b) has a high cruising speed typically.
Applying these two criteria leaves just eleven runners.
So, finally, we should take into account class. Nine from the last ten winners had run up to a Racing Post Rating of 132 or more, the exception being last year's winner Ebaziyan.
Accounting for this leaves just Muirhead, Forpadydeplasterer, Group Captain and Pasco.
This is where it gets a bit trickier, as a couple of horses (like Numide today, Sentry Duty and Fiveforthree) could still book their places. And, of course, there is the 'which race will the trainer plump for?' question still to be answered in some cases.
To this end, it is expected that both Group Captain and Forpadydeplasterer will run in the longer 2m5f Ballymore Properties Novices' Hurdle.
So, going with what we know, this would leave us with:
Muirhead 10/1 Totesport 11.5 Betfair
Pasco 25/1 General 85 Betfair
Pasco is also entered in the County Hurdle, and could run in both or either.
I really like Muirhead, whose form is rock solid, and is bound to start at around 5/1 on the day. So grab 10/1 (or bigger on betfair) while you can. He will have a break to overcome, but aside from that, he looks each way banker material.
The Nicholls horse is also worthy of a small interest, so we'll play like this:
2.5 pts e/w Muirhead at 10/1
1 pt win Pasco at 85
Which makes the portfolio look akin to this...
Portfolio to date
Supreme Novices' Hurdle
23th Feb 2.5 pts e/w Muirhead 10/1 (Totesport)
23th Feb 1 pt win Pasco at 85 (betfair)
Arkle
14th Feb 2 pts win Tidal Bay 10/1 (General)
Champion Hurdle
28th Jan 6pts win Sizing Europe 3/1 (Ladbrokes)
1st Nov 1pt win Detroit City 26 (betfair)
1st Nov 1pt win Straw Bear 36 (betfair)
Gold Cup
24th Jan 1pt win Mossbank 75 (betfair)
24th Jan 1pt win Halcon Genelardais 110 (betfair)
24th Jan 0.5pt e/w Mossbank 50/1 (Sportingbet)
24th Jan 0.5pt e/w Halcon Genelardais 50/1 (General)
World Hurdle (aka Stayers Hurdle)
28th January 2pts e/w Blazing Bailey 9/1 (general)
I hope to preview the Royal & Sun Alliance Chase, and the Champion Chase on Sunday, time permitting.
Good luck, as ever, with your weekend wagers!
Matt
Labels: Cheltenham
posted by Matt at
10:25
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